The (almost) full rebuild of the Green Bay Packers is complete!  Yes, you read that correctly.  The Packers have essentially gone through a full rebuild in the last 15 months, but have gone about it rather quietly while saying (and fake-showing) they’ve been “going for it.”  They removed Ted Thompson as GM, fired Mike McCarthy from Head Coach, traded players (Haha Clinton-Dix and Ty Montgomery) to ensure draft picks on guys they likely weren’t resigning and have changed their philosophy on building a roster.  The weird part, and why the media keeps asking, is the hierarchy structure in place my President Mark Murphy.

It feels as though the Board of Directors is getting a bit impatient with the Packers and not winning championships, even though they’re printing money, and Murphy seems to be acting out of desperation (usually not a good idea) by taking control of as much as he can, even down to hiring the Head Coach…what’s next, inputting stock on draft picks?  It begs the question, because meddling owners don’t win.  Unless you’re George Steinbrenner and you just pay for talent with blank checks, which even that’s gone by the wayside a bit in baseball.

So here we are, Matt LeFleur, the 15^th head coach in Packer history.  He comes with a fairly impressive resume, and an image that the ladies will like.  However, what does this all mean?  Can the Packers win a Super Bowl with Rodgers still at Quarterback?  Possibly, it’ll take a solid draft (or 2), plus the defense to continue to grow under Mike Pettine—whom I believe will keep his job, which might’ve been part of the requirement for the next head coach.  The fun part, is even for fans like me, realists???, this should be somewhat of an exciting time because it’s change.  Nothing had changed for a while, yet the results were still the same, odd ehh?  If you’d like a deep dive into LeFeur’s history, we can go that route, but that may be better saved for post-draft, which will be absolutely essential (aren’t’ they all?) if the Packers have plans on winning a Super Bowl in the next 2 seasons.

That brings me to the whole Expectations item.  Normally I’m the guy with “If you have Aaron Rodgers, and he’s so good, you should win the Super Bowl.”  While true, if he’s that good, which is a whole other topic…but I believe the goal now, with LeFleur having a 4-year deal (5^th year option) and Rodgers having 5 years left on his contract, what is the new goal for that window?

2 Super Bowl wins?  I’d argue that’s the minimum, let’s not even bring into account trying to make up for lost opportunities…

There should be concern amongst Packer nation that their beloved quarterback has manipulated the organization…again.  The Packers somehow came out roses last time due to Ted Thompson having the wherewithal to draft Aaron Rodgers when 23 other teams decided against it, however he seems to now be the issue—potentially.  Before coming at me (if you have the passion/desire to do so, which would be fun!) let’s take a look at where the Packers sit.

Their tight end, Mercedes Lewis, said last night (or earlier this morning) that Aaron Rodgers would disregard McCarthy’s plays and just run his own, that there was a dysfunction unlike anything he’s ever seen.  And he played for Jacksonville for 12 years…that has me thinking a few things.

Did Rodgers sabotage Mike McCarthy?  Does he think he can run a better offense from the field?  Will the next coach be able to reign him in?  Will the next coach want to?

These are the things swirling through my mind as the Packers continue their search for their 15^th head coach (16^th if you include Philbin, which I don’t think you do).  After going 6-9-1, which Rodgers started all 16 games and while his stats will say he wasn’t the issue, this was a majority of his mess—the Packers will need to find the best possible coach for them, hit on multiple draft picks AND have quite a few players make the jump from rookies to year 2 (*cough cough Josh Jackson).

It’ll be interesting to see, but this whole thing with Rodgers seeming to have sabotaged the Packers doesn’t sit well with me, ‘nor should it you.  Think, honestly tell yourself, if this were any other player on the Packers would you feel the same?

Just a thought.  Thanks for reading.

Finished 43-25…just for score-keeping 🙂

Review—this is the Packers offense many of us have been expecting.  However, it took a coaching change, the season being a complete failure, solid December weather, and an awful Jets team to get it…the sad part is it’s better than being shut down by said team.

Rodgers was productive, but still showed carelessness/laziness at times—all that matters is production, and he produced 44 points.  It’s no doubt that Davante Adams is a stud, no need to elaborate.  The rookie WRs need more snaps.  Been clamoring for this for a while, but J’Mon Moore (#82), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (#83), and Equanimeous St. Brown (#19), along with Jake Kumerow (#16) should get all of the playing time possible with Rodgers.  They each bring something to the table and the Packers need at least 2 of those guys to be solid if they plan on doing anything moving forward.

The defense…well, the top 3 defensive linemen were out (Clark, Daniels, and Wilkerson) and who knows if Wilkerson will return next year, but he could add depth.  To borrow my cousin’s phrase, the safeties are just a bunch of Slugs, and it’s very apparent Josh Jones continues to need snaps as he can only improve while having a ton of physical talent.

Preview—Detroit and Green Bay are locked in their respective positions as far as division goes.  The Lions will finish last (4^th) while the Packers will finish 3^rd.  Which means Green Bay will face the NFC South 3^rd place finisher (Carolina, Atlanta, or Tampa Bay) at home, and the NFC West 3^rd place finisher on the road (San Francisco or Arizona).  Along with that, the Packers are locked into drafting anywhere from 10^th to 17^th.  Keep in mind the Packers hold New Orleans’ 1^st round pick, which is no worse than 26^th, or better if you look at it like that.  So the Packers will have 2 picks, first from 10^th-17^th, and their 2^nd anywhere between 26^th-32^nd in the first round in April’s draft.

As for the Lions, they bring the 26^th ranked offense (19.5 points/game) and the 19^th ranked defense (24.0 points/game).  The Packers matchup fairly well, especially coming off a 44-point performance vs another bad team.  The Packers rank 12^th and 22^nd, respectively and will look to add to those totals and likely increase their offensive output, while likely worsening their defensive rank.

Overall—there will be a season recap later, however for what it’s worth there’s a winner of this game that needs picking, or at least hopefully.

Lions 17
Packers 34

43-24 overall record.  Likely moving to 44-24…interesting offseason, that’s certain.

Review—finally the Packers are officially eliminated from the playoffs and the fans that were holding on to hope, can shift their focus to the draft and next year.  The Bears played an OK game, which proved enough to beat Green Bay’s best shot.  We learned that Matt Nagy (Chicago’s head coach) loves to be the smartest guy in the room, and that will cost the Bears against a good team.  The Packers got away from running Aaron Jones due to not having 3 starting offensive linemen, so needing Jamaal Williams to help with pass protection vs Khalil Mack and the Bears’ pass rush, instead of running the ball with a very effective Halfback….yeah, read that again.

The Bears clinched the division and they celebrated like the Cubs won the World Series, but now Packer fans are left feuding with one another about “who’s a True Fan?” which some people are taking issue with Cheeseheads wanting their beloved Packers to lose their final 2 games.

Green Bay has an opportunity to vastly improve the situation next year by playing as many rookies and young players regular season game action, and if they lose both of their remaining games while getting some help (bad teams “behind” them winning) could move up the draft order from their current spot; 11^th.

Preview—enter one of those teams “ahead” of the Packers, the New York Jets.  The Jets currently sit at 4-10 and the 4^th overall pick.  It would behoove each of these teams to lose, so as you can tell the “hype” for this game should be as low as possible.

The Jets don’t have much talent, none on offense, but feature one of the best young defenders in Jamal Adams.  He’s the 6^th overall pick from last year’s draft (2017) from LSU, wears #33 and a bunch of sweatbands…oh, and he’s also really good.  While watching him, think he’s the type of player that the Packers could draft next year and immediately help, IF they can crack into the top 10 in the draft.

Prediction—these are 2 bad teams, the Jets rank 24^th in points scored and points allowed, whereas the Packers rank 16^th offensively and 17^th defensively.  Green Bay has quite a bit more talent which I believe will be the difference-maker…

Packers 31
Jets 17

42-24

Not the result some wanted (yours truly) and now because things keep falling into place, the Packers still have a shot (4% as of Fri, Dec 14^th, up from 0.97% following the Arizona loss) at the playoffs.  I’ll state this, and for many who know me maybe you think a pessimist, or Negative Nancy, but trust me, I’m as objective as a fan can be—which I believe to be realistic.

Let’s say everything falls into place, the Packers somehow get into “the tournament,” they’d likely travel to Chicago for the Wild Card game, which would obviously be very winnable.  Then being the 6^th seed, they’d (as of now) have to travel to New Orleans for a showdown with the best team in the NFL, in a stadium they never play well in, vs a team they can’t stop.  Let’s say for some reason the Rams get home field advantage, then Green Bay would have……….see what happens, there’s a game to be played, along with 5 other scenarios that must happen even in order to think all this through.  Meanwhile the chance of getting to the super bowl (not winning it, just showing up) is still <<<<<1%.  Hence, losing out to get better draft stock, not just in the 1^st round, but each round following, can only help the organization.  Unless you think that winning out, finishing 8-7-1, missing the playoffs or getting bounced in the postseason would somehow benefit this team more than 10+ draft slots because of the confidence gained from winning those games, losing out is the way to go.

The Good—the Packers played a pretty good game vs. a very confusingly-bad Atlanta team and looked like what many thought this Packers team would look like all year.  What I liked is Pettine (Packers’ D coord) had the sensational rookie, Jaire Alexander, follow around arguably the NFL’s best wide receiver (Julio Jones) all game and for the most part, hung in there and did fairly well.  The other promising factor is with the injuries, 2^nd year man (my man) Josh Jones is getting valuable snaps…keep ‘em coming.

Joe Philbin didn’t necessarily call a great game, as far as play calls, formations, schemes, etc.—but what he did do is call with tempo, which allowed Rodgers and the offense to establish a rhythm, which proved to be more important than “good” calls, at least vs. Atlanta.  Mid-season pick up, Breshaud Breeland (CB) had a pick-6 against Matt Ryan, on a poor throw, but ultimately a good play.  Lastly, the 2 challenges on the Julio catches, which the first one, by rule, should’ve been an incompletion, set the tone and seemed to get buy-in from the entire sideline.

Going complete fan here, but this team has talent, and it’s very apparent the firing of Mike McCarthy looks to be their galvanizing moment the QB has been looking for, it may be too little, too late in terms of making a run—however, if they get in, I can’t imagine many teams begging to see a hot team led by Aaron Rodgers…unless it’s the Saints in New Orleans, because the Packers can’t win there.

The Bad—Kenny Clark, arguably the team’s best player, suffered an elbow injury, but later returned.  It’s stuff like that happening, that I hate…I still don’t believe this team can/will win the Super Bowl and injuring your best player could substantially injure your chances next year.

The Ugly—the Vikings fired offensive Coordinator…John DeFilippo.  He looked like he may have been auditioning for a head coaching job with a capable QB with all the pass plays he called during the Vikings’ near shutout in Seattle.  The reason I put this under Ugly, is due to Mark Murphy (meddling owner) not using a search firm to find the next head coach, and may be stuck in his ways as DeFilippo may have been on his radar prior to the fiasco in Seattle, and there’s a real chance he could be hired as next coach…again, many who know me know I love running the ball and playing great defense…DeFilippo shows none of that.

Match-up—the Bears bring one of the most-complete teams (on paper) into this week 15 matchup.  When looking at Points and turnover margin, the Bears rank 7^th on offense, 3^rd on defense, and 1^st in turnover margin (+13).  Until last week, the Bears hadn’t beaten a team with a winning record, and it was obvious neither QB (Rams’ Jared Goff or the Bears’ Mitch Trubisky) wanted to play in the cold.  It’ll be interesting to see how he performs vs a Packers’ defense that has seemed to improve throughout the season, or at least become a bit more consistent as the season has gone on.

The main thing to keep an eye on is if Rodgers and the Packers come out with a quick-hitting passing attack that led to their comeback vs Chicago in the 2^nd half of week 1’s matchup, which may mean less snaps for Aaron Jones (Jamaal Williams is the preferred pass blocking HB).  The other reason this could be essential is Khalil Mack only played on a limited snap count in week 1, but is obviously ready to rock now—the issue, Packers RT Bryan Bulaga is listed as DOUBTFUL (as of 9a Sunday), which could be great tape from Jason Spriggs on how “Not to pass block vs the best defender in football.”  It’s a very intriguing matchup to see if the Packers can utilize the short-passing game to act as the running game.  Green Bay will likely need a solid performance from Rodgers and the defense to get a turnover or 2 to pull this game out.  Also, if you’re all in for the playoff push, which is pointless without a Super Bowl victory, keep an eye on the Miami @ Minnesota game too.

Prediction time—a little different format here, however while I want the Packers to lose, I will attempt to root for it as well, but rooting for the Packers to lose against the Bears just doesn’t sit well in my stomach – even if it’s the best for the team long-term.

Packers 16
Bears 24

41-24: a win-win at this point. If the Packers win they’re still alive for the playoffs, and many fans will enjoy that. If they lose, they improved draft stock (although losing last week would’ve gone much further in that dept.).  Either way, it feels like purgatory and when in doubt, root for a W????

The Good—they actually did it!  The Packers mailed it in and lost to arguably the worst team in the NFL.  The bad news is since firing Mike McCarthy, it seems as though that’s rejuvenated this team and they may come out and actually win.  Since trading the quarterback in the offseason isn’t happening, ‘nor would I want to now since his value is low, the best thing for the franchise is to lose the remaining 4 games, get better draft position in each round and hit a complete reset.  Keep in mind Green Bay holds the Saints’ 1^st round draft pick in this coming draft (trading back so New Orleans could take pass-rusher Marcus Davenport, whom many predicted Green Bay to initially select), but the Saints are looking like they’ll have a very late draft pick, so it’ll be closer to the 30^th or later.  If Green Bay can lose out, that would put them in likely in the top 6 as they’d currently be selecting 10^th.  Many believe with Rodgers at QB and a new head coach, this team could realistically compete next year and if that’s the case, the higher the draft choice the higher the chance that pick will contribute to that “success.”

While many may think losing out isn’t a good idea, regardless of what the team will be trying to do, they obviously have lost quite a few games to bad teams, only have 4 wins through 12 games, and are essentially eliminated from the playoffs—this team is flat out bad and hopefully that continues for the last month of the season for the betterment of the organization.

The Bad—the Packers are in search of a new head coach, and while that’s good (change was needed, and I was a McCarthy backer for years, still don’t mind the guy, but change was needed) Green Bay finds itself in a position of needing to a. Find a really good NFL head coach (difficult already) and b. Find one that will reign in Rodgers and gain his respect.  These seem like difficult tasks all because of the absurd contract extension given to the QB earlier this season which leads to…

The Ugly—the main issue seems to be the structure of the hierarchy of the front office.  President Mark Murphy still has his nose in every single football move and while they believe/say 17 other franchises have a similar structure, I can’t remember any of them actually winning or consistently winning with said structure.  Meddling owners are as bad a situation that can be asked for in sports.  All of this leads me, and possibly some others, to why Rodgers received the highest contract in NFL history.  It’s tough for me to imagine a new General Manager, with all the leverage, giving more $ to a player they already had under control for another 5 seasons.  This screams a move dictated (intentionally used this word) from a meddling owner.  Murphy’s main objective is to make money, however when fans don’t show up and leave empty seats in Lambeau, especially with a ¼ the season left, it’s embarrassing…owners don’t like that, it hurts their pride, regardless if they’re making money because the opportunity looks as though they could’ve made more.

There’s potentially the issue that the Packers won’t get back to winning A Super Bowl, let alone multiple Super Bowls (true objective) until a new President takes over and turns the football operations to someone that should be in control of football operations.  That would mean even more losing before winning, which may be tough to swallow, but this is a probable serious mess that might take some time to clean, but it’s the bed that’s been made.

Atlanta Falcons—here’s another team that has quite a bit of talent and is used to making the playoffs, but has completely underwhelmed as well.  It’s tough to point to why Atlanta has struggled so much this season, then again, who cares?  That’s their problem.  The Packers are favored by about a touchdown, yet it would behoove both teams to lose this game.  I’ve looked up the stats and whatnot, but what’s the point?  These are two bad teams playing for nothing other than a few fringe guys to put good tape for their future employers to view.

There’s an opportunity for Green Bay to get their young kids some meaningful live action snaps/experience, e.g. J’Mon Moore, who’s only played a handful of snaps all season.  There should also not be much frustration viewed from any of the Packers as this is the bottom of the barrel and is the new normal for this season…get the kids some snaps so they can develop and as painful as it is for a Packer fan to say- it’s as obvious to see how important a loss would help in the long-term.

Falcons 24
Packers 27

40-24: glad I was wrong; hopefully it happens again 🙂

As it should come to no true Packer fans’ surprise, they came up and choked in the spotlight, vs an average QB, on the road, again.  The frustrating part is this was yet another team effort that resulted in a loss.  From the President of the Packers (Murphy, there’s that name again), to the GM (Gutekunst, still not much blame since he just took over), to the Head Coach, to the Quarterback.  This 4-headed monster keeps rearing its ugly head and finally the media is beginning to take serious (descriptive) notice.

There were 3 articles (as of Friday, Nov 30^th) calling out the rift between McCarthy and Rodgers and both are to blame (Bob McGinn, Andy Benoit, and Kalyn Kahler).  Many of you whom know me and have conversed with me know that I’m all for blowing this whole thing up.  Fire McCarthy, allow Gutekunst to bring in his own coach, trade Aaron Rodgers (although now his value is as low as it has been) and start over with a bunch of draft picks and cap space.  However, since the Packers just made #12 the highest paid player in NFL history, there’s no chance he gets dealt.  So now what?  The Head Coach still needs to go, but that then give Rodgers even more “power” as it seems quite obvious he’s been attempting to usher Mac out of the door for quite some time.  This is the boat the Packers are in.  They have the most-talented (there goes that word again, almost meaningless) QB in history, but with a huge issue…and if the next head coach isn’t the perfect fit, none of this will matter.  Couple that with still needing a top 5 defense (in points) in order to win a Super Bowl, let alone 2+ (which should be the minimum standard at this point) in the next 5 years, seems like a tall order.

Where do the Packers stand right now?  In the grand-scheme/big-picture…not good—but in the current season they sit as the 10^th seed in the NFC (of 16 total, a joke), but currently would hold the 12^th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.  If you’re one of those hopefuls that believe there’s a chance at the playoffs (8%), more importantly to win the Super Bowl (<1%) is far less-likely.

Playoffs: win each of the remaining games, 5-0.  Highly unlikely, as well as get a TON of help from 5 other teams/scenarios.  Again, if the Packers want to do things correctly, as tough as it would be, you should be happy with losses to help increase the draft picks as well as seal the fate of Mike McCarthy, since the Quarterback isn’t going anywhere.

Review—the Packers showed they’re right on par with Minnesota, however found a way to lose, which looked very lazy, but what should’ve been to no one’s surprise.  There were quite a few opportunities to win the game, but in the end Minnesota wanted the game more, which again, was a good thing since it’d take “lottery-winning-odds” for this Packer team to win the Super Bowl.

Preview—enter the worst team in the NFL, err…maybe 2^nd worst (behind the Packers?) the Arizona Cardinals.  They feature an aging legend in Larry Fitzgerald (stand-up citizen) and a rookie QB with high potential (Josh Rosen).  Arizona also features a top tier HB in David Johnson and CB in Patrick Peterson, aside from those 4 there’s not much to see with this Cardinals team.  This is as guaranteed a Win that the Packers have had in a while.  Arizona brings nothing to the table that would either be scary to beat Green Bay ‘nor a reason to head to Lambeau to watch these 2 crap teams.

Match-up—see below, the parenthesis are ranks in the NFL

As you can see there’s really no advantage Ari has coming into this matchup.  The other factor is the recently found motivation that Randall Cobb said Rodgers apparently has taken since the national and local media has begun to blame him as much as McCarthy for failure this season- begs the question If Rodgers begins to light it up and play “normal,” why did it take this long and for others to motivate him?

Cardinals 20
Packers 31

40-23: now the switch has happened and hopefully I’m wrong again, for the greater good.

Review—another awful half of football turned in by the Packers, and another sub-standard performance by the QB.  Rodgers is the prime example of stats not telling the whole story.  This season, and in this game, his stats are and were great, however in crunch time when needed he didn’t come through and left the Packers searching for more answers.  The Packers got mega-production from OLB Kyler Fackrell (3 sacks) and another solid performance by Aaron Jones (103 yards on 16 touches) yet the team seemed lethargic and without passion when it mattered.

Seattle outgained the Packers (378-359), converted 3 touchdowns of their 5 red zone trips to the Packers 1 of 2, and overcame the game’s only turnover to outlast Green Bay.  Many wanted the Packers to go for it on 4^th and 5 with a few minutes left in the game, as did I, however I can see why they would’ve decided to punt.  Rodgers had just skipped a pass to a wide open St. Brown the play prior and thought the D could get one more stop or possibly make a play (which might’ve been more likely than the offense actually coming through right after showing they couldn’t).  Either way it was another frustrating loss to a bad team.  Yes, Seattle is bad.

This game left the Packers as the 9^th seed looking up to Seattle and Washington, both teams Green Bay lost to and now find themselves essentially needing to win out (their remaining 6 games) to make the playoffs.  Then again, is making the playoffs really the best for this organization? While it’s tough to root for the Packers to lose, it’s the best thing for the long-term.  Otherwise it’ll be more of the same, another loss in the playoffs—no thanks.

Match-up—let’s take a look at another disappointing team, the Minnesota Vikings.

As you can see these teams are fairly evenly matched, which would make sense why they tied one another in week 2 earlier this year.  Minnesota boasts the 5^th ranked defense in the league (yards), but due to their offense being middle-of-the-pack, the Vikings have given some short fields that their defense hasn’t been able to keep the opponent out of the end zone a few times.  That’s still an area of struggle for Green Bay.  Evidenced last week by only converting 50% of their red zone trips to Touchdowns, if the Packers keep with the run game, especially when in the red zone to open throwing lanes and give the offense other options to confuse the defense.

Preview—if the Packers want to win this game, they’ll have to play 4 full quarters of football, and keep it clean.  They played clean last week, but only showed up for about 2.5 quarters and the defense eventually wore down.  They’ll need to win the turnover battle (not tie, but win it) and the time of possession.  If Green Bay can rush for over 150 yards (as a team) and possess the ball for about 31+ minutes that should be good enough to get the job done, however I don’t have faith they’ll commit and stick to the run game and will lose another close road game, hopefully ending their season instill major change this offseason…

Prediction—

Packers 23
Vikings 26

39-23 overall record.

To jump from last week’s phrasing, “Win out or lose out,” the Packers find themselves in a must-win if they plan to win the Super Bowl, because in order to do that one must make the playoffs…so here we go.

Review—that went a little reverse from my thought, however the end game was roughly the same.  It was closer (score) throughout the game until late in the 3^rd quarter.  Credit to the Packers’ D for not allowing an awful QB and 3 backup offensive lineman to get into the end zone.  Yes, that was facetious, but the Packers benefitted from a poor snap on the first drive of the game and didn’t really look back.

Obviously what stood out was the production of Aaron Jones.  Everyone has been screaming for him to get more touches and he responded.  Now there are 2 questions that arise:

1. Will Mike McCarthy stick to that plan, and actually get #33 more touches than even last week?
2. If that’s the case, will Jones continue to produce at a high level?

The promising thing to take away from that game is the Packers rolled out the helmets and won the game, while not playing a clean game.  They had a blocked punt, a fake punt executed vs them, and fumbled a punt return.  The good news is this team actually might be capable of playing a clean game, playing well, and actually beating a good team.  Enough of Miami, let’s move on.

Matchup— enter the Seattle Seahawks.  There are few teams Packer fans should despise.  Seattle can’t win on the road, and require all sorts of (as a friend of mine put it years ago) “fluky $hit” in CenturyLink Field to win vs good opponents.

The chart above shows Seattle has the edge rushing when on offense vs the Packers’ 22^nd ranked run D.  What that tells me is the Packers must get out to a fast start, or at least a lead to force Seattle’s hand to pass.  Green Bay shows to have the 5^th best defense vs the pass, while the Seahawks struggle.

There are 2 factors to Green Bay having a much-improved pass defense, aside from the spectacular play of rookie CB Jaire Alexander, the Packers are tied for the league lead in sacks (31.0), while having an awful depth of edge rushers…the Packers’ D line combined with the scheme of Mike Pettine to bring pressure from multiple angles, it’ll be interesting to see if they can spy Wilson, who gained significant yards on crucial downs last week in Los Angeles.  While it’s not good to root for players to get injured, the ankle injury of Kentrell Brice might be what the Packers’ secondary needed…an opportunity to get Josh Jones on the field.  While #27 (Jones) has multiple mental errors, he usually makes them while being aggressive and also has superior athleticism and has come close to being a game-changer as recently as last week.

Preview— as for the history, if you plan on watching this game (and why wouldn’t you if you’re reading this? Or maybe you don’t need to watch if you’re reading this…???) the pregame will cover the history of these ball clubs at nausea.  With Aaron Rodgers not playing up to the bar he set, he’s still plenty effective enough to win games if McCarthy (or Rodgers, who knows) sticks to the run game and can allow misdirection and play action.  The main issue with this game is the long travel on short-rest.  Of the 10 games played on Thursday Night Football, the home team has won 7 of those match-ups.  If the Packers play a clean game, stick to the run, play from under center, and take a few aggressive shots, they should be able to take this one, possibly handedly.  Then again, McCarthy has rarely showed to do any of those, let alone all 4…I’ll take Seattle.

Packers 21
Seahawks 27

38-23

Big Picture— it’s getting tougher and tougher to figure out the major issue with this Packer team.  There’s been plenty of talk about the head coach needing to go, which has been overdue for some time, however trying to put your finger on what’s going on is quite difficult.

Talent?—do the Packer just not have enough talent as their opponents?  Say that’s the case, and Rodgers isn’t playing well to his standards (yes his stats look fine, but he’s missed quite a few throws, which are compounded in losses), then to say the Packers have competed well vs the Rams and Patriots would lend to them being well-prepared…coaching.

Coaching?—Tom Brady said something to the effect after the game that it seemed like the Packers had to struggle for every yard.  That seemed to be the case since 2014, and that is coaching/game-planning/scheming.  The concept McCarthy’s offense is based on is brilliant, until it’s decoded, which it seems to have been for 3+ years now.  There are no plays designed in order to get anyone open, it’s all matchup, so if the opponent is foolish enough to play zone, then it’s on the pass catchers to find the opening, or Rodgers can throw them open.  When the defense plays Cover 2 Man (2 safeties deep, splitting the field in half, the other 9 players in man coverage all underneath, pending how many are rushing, likely 4), if the Packers’ WRs can shake their defender, it’s going to be tough to have anyone streaking wide open.  The Patriots do a great job of scheming to get people open…hell, EVERYONE does a better job than the Packers at that.  They’ve become too reliant on the WRs athleticism and Rodgers’ accuracy and haven’t adapted to the opponents’’ schemes vs them.  The brilliant part is, when it works, it’s almost indefensible, see 2011 when teams would play zone vs the Packers 5-wide set, Green Bay shredded records and went 15-1, then ultimately got punched and out-coached in the playoffs by the Giants, who played a cover 2 man defense…mmm…

There’s definitely something brewing here, and the worst part is it seems the players almost don’t care, at least the older ones: Rodgers; Cobb.  The 7-year vet was quoted saying, “We’ve lost games before here, but this just feels different,” wide receiver Randall Cobb said, per ESPN’s Rob Demovsky. “And it doesn’t feel good. It’s not fun. But we’ve got to figure something out.

“We definitely need some momentum, we need to get a win. … Very frustrating and it’s tough. Because I know what we’re capable of and we’re not there. I don’t know what it is, but we’ve got to find a way to get it done.”

The Packers seem to have taken over as the Milwaukee Bucks as far as Wisconsin sports go…full on apathy is setting in.  This goes back to a comment I don’t think I’ll ever forget, from Bill Simmons, 5 years ago moments before the Bucks selected Giannis Antetokounmpo, “Ahh yes, now the Milwaukee Bucks…saying this team being stuck in neutral would be a compliment.”  Then the Bucks chose the rawest player available, but with the absolute highest ceiling and Simmons followed that move up with, “this is the perfect draft choice for this organization.  They have been striving for mediocrity forever, so they have the time to let this kid develop without the pressure of having to win.”  I’m paraphrasing the 2^nd quote, but the reason I bring this up is the then-GM, John Hammond, made a decision to make the right draft choice even though the owner, Herb Kohl, always wanted to win now.  It wasn’t until the entire organization got on the same page—Owner, GM, and Head Coach—all were on the same plan and timetable to build a winner.  Also see the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Packers seem to be “stuck in neutral.”  While many would say they’ve been “winning a lot,” and have had “a lot of success,” I’m cut from the mold of needing to win championships to be considered successful.  While the Packers have been to the playoffs 9 times since Mike McCarthy has taken over, they’ve only won the Super Bowl once.  Also, the notion of “get to the playoffs and with Aaron Rodgers you always have a chance” sounds good, apparently that’s not the case.

Review—if you’re still with me, you must be devoted as much as I am to this team.  The Packers played pretty well until the Aaron Jones fumble.  I get the sense of benching a player when making a mistake, but not at this point of his career and not at this point of your coaching tenure, Mike McCarthy.  The only reason the Packers were in this game was Aaron Jones’ production/touch.  They guy had 4-points of ball security and still lost it, so let’s punish him for being the most-productive player on the team and NOT being careless.  Either way, I don’t think the outcome changes much.  If the Packers go down and score a touchdown, they still leave Brady and the Pats about 3+ minutes, at home, to score…pretty much inevitable.  Then it’s to OT, which I’d then give the nod to the Pats, but however, still needed to find a way to win that game.

The Packers moved their rankings/stats in the wrong direction on all accounts.

1. 45 yards less than their average
2. 92 yards given up more than their average
3. 8 points less than average
4. 6 points more than avg.

The Packers did score TDs on more than 50% of their red zone trips (2 for 3), the issue was they only got to the red zone 3 times.  That’s an issue, but what’s new?

Preview— enter the 5-4 Miami Dolphins.  They see themselves as the 7^th seed in the AFC playoff picture, so they’re right there as the current 6 seed (Cincinnati) is struggling and has a tough game vs New Orleans today.  Even though the Packers are 9.5 point favorites, with the current state of the locker room, this will likely be a tough match-up.  Plus, keep in mind, Brock Osweiler (Mia QB today) lit up the Chicago Bears in week 6.  It’s very possible for him to repeat that feat.  I believe the last match-up (Dec 2016 vs Houston) the Packers held the Texans to 13 points in snowy, cold Lambeau.  The Packers defense could and should show up to hold the Fins under 20 points.  Meanwhile it should be good conditions for the offense to light up the scoreboard…if there ever was a time to be motivated and come out and unload, today is that day—it’s also likely the last time a McCarthy-led Packers squad will do so.

Match-up—

As you can see the Packers hold the advantage in each category, so this should mean the Packers roll, right?  Yes…should being the operative word.  Everything for the remainder of the season will depend on whether the Packers can get up and play for their Head Coach—it seems that players, beginning with Rodgers, have given up on this team/season, so again it’s time for the Head Coach to go.  Unfortunately, even with a loss today, the Packers can’t make a change with their next game coming on Thursday night in Seattle.

Prediction—I think the Packers come out strong and are aggressive, which will lead to some early points/production.  It’ll be a 2-3 score game until late 4^th quarter and the Packers will need a drive to make it a 2-score game again.

Dolphins 20
Packers 30

37-23: The Packers should get back on track, but if they lose, it shouldn’t be shocking as it seems the team just doesn’t care and are in obvious need of a change in voice.