Need to Build Momentum for the Tough Stretch
As of today, the Packers’ remaining opponents’ record is 37-29 (.561), the 6th toughest remaining schedule in the NFL. With how tough the NFC is shaping up to be, it seems like 11 wins will be needed to earn a playoff spot. Currently sitting at 5-3, with 2 losses to divisional opponents, and 3 losses to NFC teams, it’s imperative Green Bay starts racking up as many wins as it can. Mike McCarthy looks at season in quarters, meaning 4-game stretches. Green Bay went 2-2 in the first quarter, and 3-1 in the 2nd. This is beginning the “3rd quarter” of the season and it’s a tough stretch.
- @ Patriots, 5-3
- v Vikings, 6-1
- @ Rams, 4-4
- @ Saints, 2-5
Splitting is the likely outcome, however going 3-1 in this stretch would set Green Bay up in a favorable situation to make a playoff run. Depending on who they beat, they could be set up for a divisional run as well.
Of the next 4 games, the one that would hurt the least to lose is today’s game in New England. They’re an AFC opponent and the tiebreaking scenarios (should it come to that with another team) likely wouldn’t come into play.
Huge Game for Both Teams
Green Bay enters Week 9 in last place of the NFC North, even though they currently sit as the 7th seed in the NFC Playoff Picture. New England holds the 2nd place position in their division, the AFC East and too holds the 7th seed on the AFC side. The Patriots are chasing the Buffalo Bills, but have beaten Buffalo earlier this season and are 3-0 in their division. After representing the AFC in last year’s Super Bowl, they’re looking to build off that success and have begun to do so after a sluggish start to the season. Both of these teams come in winning 4 of their last 5 games and are hungry to keep that winning style going – they’re also looking at each other as a great litmus test to see where they truly stand.
Whichever team loses today (unless there’s a tie), would likely put them on the outside of the playoff picture looking in – however, a win would further solidify their path towards earning a postseason spot. It’s a huge game for both, even though it’s an interconference battle.
Matchup Matrix
It should come as no surprise that New England is the more consistent, balanced, team especially on offense. Considering the Packers have a historically bad rushing attack everyone they face will likely have better ball control and a better time of possession ranking, thus keeping their defense off the field while Green Bay needs to keep theirs on…
The Packers continue to show they need to sling the football in order to sustain drives and score points. The key for the Packers during this 5-game stretch is they’ve been able to take the ball away at an incredible rate. Turnovers are always an important part of any game and for any team, but it’s even more important for Green Bay.
As shown on the graphic above, the Patriots are very balanced throughout all of the statistics. Their offense, which started slow has picked up considerably over the last 5 games and is now ranked 8th in total offense averaging 367.2 yards/game. While they’re middle of the pack in terms of scoring offense (16th), during this 5-game stretch they’ve averaged 29.6 points/game which would rank them 2nd in the NFL in scoring if that was their season average. New England’s main issue is turning the ball over. Even while playing well over the last month +, they’ve still committed turnovers at an alarming rate for a good team. They’ve given it away 7 times in their three losses and 8 times in their five wins. You can look at that a couple of different ways…either they’re still sloppy and give the ball away or they find ways to win even though they give it away a ton. Technically both can be true simultaneously, but capitalizing on those turnovers is what Green Bay needs to do to suck the wind out of the crowd.
Green Bay needs turnovers, against everyone, really, to win games due to the lack of balance and ball control on offense. It’s even more necessary when facing good teams on the road.
When Green Bay has the ball – the Packers are facing the 13th-ranked passing defense in the league, and New England plays a lot of man coverage, which the Packers struggle to get separation against vs. when they see zone coverage. The idea is that when you play man coverage you can bring blitz packages to create pressure and the ball needs to come out more quickly – but the thing is, Jordan Love has been under duress this entire season and has passed the test thus far. The Pats’ corners are fairly aggressive and very good in man coverage, so the challenge is there.
When New England has the ball – the Pats have a balanced attack, ranking 12th in rushing, 11th in passing, and 8th in total offense; Green Bay matches that balance with their defense quite well, ranking 15th, 8th, and 10th, respectively. New England will try to establish the run to open up the rest of their offense, and given both teams are missing considerable talent due to injuries, running the ball is the great equalizer. The Pats are likely missing their top 4 pass catchers this game and will likely try to establish the run to utilize play action and rollouts to give QB Drake Maye time for his receivers to create separation as well as give him an option to use his legs to gain yards.
Considering this seems like an even matchup on paper, I believe the Patriots are missing more pieces in one department while Green Bay is missing more total pieces, but scattered over various positions. Both teams are banged up, but dangerous. This would mean the game could come down to special teams, and I don’t need to show you the rankings for you to understand which of these two teams has the advantage in that area…
Who Wins? Why?
This is a “bad” matchup for the Packers, based on everything I mentioned above. The balance New England brings, along with a mobile and very good QB is a dynamic that only helps the Patriots. Their special teams unit is superior due to the kicking issues Green Bay has experienced over the last few weeks is another reason why New England is favored by 3 points heading into this interconference matchup. However, the Patriots have turned the ball over a ton and there’s no reason to think that the best defense (the last 5 weeks) at taking the ball away shouldn’t come up with at least 2 turnovers – if Green Bay is +2 in the turnover differential department today, couple that with Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love staying aggressive on offense, almost by necessity with the lack of run game, could produce enough big plays for this Packers team to pull it out. Hopefully it doesn’t come down to a last second Field Goal for either side, because Green Bay would be at a severe disadvantage…
