Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers had a 4-quarter stretch that resembled an outmatched high school team playing a state’s best team. See below:

Quarter	Plays	Yards	Points
W2Q4	10	7	0
W3Q1	11	35	0
W3Q2	7	9	0
W3Q3	17	79	0
Totals	45	130	0

The fact the Packers actually had a chance to win both games with 4 quarters (shown above) in an 8-quarter stretch is quite promising. It’s also very math-like that the Packers outside of those abysmal 4 quarters put up 434 yards over 73 plays and 42 points in the other 4. So it makes a ton of sense that they’d go 1-1 as both games could’ve been either wins or losses, ahh the fun-struggle of following the NFL. As awesome as this comeback was, and it was a season-opener for the ages, there’s little time to celebrate as the biggest game of the year is here.

To the shock of many of you, not to ones who read here (insert smirking emoji), the 2-best teams in the division square off on a nationally televised game which will give Jordan Love and the baby Packers another opportunity to showcase their ability – as well as another dynamic learning experience (short week, rivalry game, night game, etc.).

Another major issue…these injuries sure have racked up and it’s early. Whether it’s turf-related, or soft tissue things (hamstrings), they’re all frustrating. While a great guy, David Bakhtiari’s career in Green Bay seems to have met it’s end. With the Packers ability to build offensive line, it’s best to keep him out and hold him to the playoffs or the playoff push and get the most out of him in the most important games down the stretch. In these games (as almost every game) it comes to QB-play and winning in the trenches…Detroit has one of the best OL’s in the NFL, but Green Bay showed last week they all need to be accounted for. Rashan Gary has the highest win rate of all pass-rushers, his only limitation is his pitch-count, but if he plays all passing downs, he’s a problem, big problem. Rookie Lukas Van Ness has also shown to be the 2nd best/most-effective pass rusher of all rookies (Jalen Carter). Between Gary, LVN, and Kenny Clark, if they win the fight on the line, that will allow Jordan Love to do what Jordan Love does…

Matchup~

	Det off.	(rank)	vs.	GB def.	(rank)
Rush	111.7	11		136.7	27
Pass	269.7	7		199.7	10
Total	381.3	8		336.3	15
Pts	24.0	T-12		20.7	T-13
	Det def.			GB off.
Rush	72.0	5		90.3	23
Pass	225.3	19		207.3	19
Total	297.3	11		297.7	22
Pts	21.0	15		26.7	8
T/O
Takeaways	2	T-22nd		3	T-19th
Giveaways	5	T-21st		1	T-1st
Diff.	(3)	T-24th		2	T-9th

While Detroit is on offense, they have the distinct advantage in each category. However, the rank of scoring is very even, so that tells me Green Bay’s able to bend and not break (outside of the 4th quarter vs Atlanta). Adversely, when Green Bay has the ball, they’re able to find ways to score. The Packers’ rush offense could really benefit from the return of Aaron Jones as Detroit boasts a top-5 team vs. the run, and we know that time of possession is key, almost as key as turnovers, which Green Bay only has 1 (knock on wood).

• Detroit 32:07 (7th)
• Green Bay 28:32 (23rd)

Detroit is better in every category other than scoring and turnovers…mmm, weird how that works. The main matchups are going to be how Green Bay deals with Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR #14) (especially if Jaire Alexander doesn’t play) and if they can keep Aiden Hutchinson (#97) from wrecking the game altogether.

Lions 23 (-1.5)
Packers 21

My prediction record….
Season: 1-2
Overall: 88-54

The Packers had the game in control for a little over 48 minutes. Atlanta kept with the run, thus wearing down the defense, and Green Bay’s offense couldn’t gain a first down and that was enough to open the flood gates. With a first year starter at QB, and the youngest roster the NFL has seen in 6 years, these types of games are going to occur. It’s clear as day the Packers have talent scattered all over the field – however, they’re lacking experience and this is how they get it. Buckle up, there are going to be 3-5 more games like this this season alone.

Speaking of the Packers’ offense, Jordan Love compiled a decent game again, proving enough to almost anyone with two working eyes that he’s capable of being good. Now he must string this together for an entire season to garner an extension (I fully expect him to). While he didn’t seem rattled in the 4th quarter, his production – or lack thereof – would say otherwise. The Packers ran 10 plays for a total of 7 yards in the entire fourth quarter, and a defense that held the Falcons in check, began to break. Green Bay ended up allowing 211 rushing yards the Packers lost the time of possession 36:15 to 23:45. Those numbers will need to improve should the Green & Gold have visions of making a playoff run.

Another bright spot, rookie WR Jayden Reed arrived on the scene with his first 2 TDs. As mentioned above, Jordan Love continued on with another 3 TDs and 0 INTs (thanks to a dropped INT late). He’ll need to increase his completion percentage. Love ranks first in QB Rating (118.8), and T-1st in TDs (6), but 30th in completion % (55.8%). It’s not that he’s inaccurate or missing open guys, but an overall timing situation and rhythm with the rest of the offense. It’s correctable, but reps are needed. The real disappointment was A.J. Dillon. He had another opportunity to shine and as he has in the past, he let down the team/fans. He’s produced in the past, but this was a lot of slipping, not keeping his feet and missing open holes and hitting others at the wrong time. I’ve been a long defender of Dillon and loved him as a pick, but this is likely his last season in Green Bay as HBs are easily replaceable with mid-late round draft picks.

(2-0) New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers (1-1)

The Saints have won both games by the closest of margins – they’ve done so with solid/aggressive defensive play. There’s a good article and point brought up by Jeff Duncan. The point he raises is how New Orleans corners are very handsy and aggressive with pass catchers, and while they get called from time to time for pass interference or illegal contact, they get away with a ton too, which forces the offense into tough situations or turnovers. It also allows their pass rushers more time to get to the quarterback as the receivers take more time to get into their route and location by fighting through the defenders. Don’t think the Saints aren’t aware, they know, they know the opponent knows, and still are committed to this play. This may be the game where Love ends his turnover-less streak, but there’s good chance that he takes a few more deep shots in hopes to either connect or get a call or two to really pick up some chunk yards.

Matchup~

	NO off.	(rank)	vs.	GB def.	(rank)
Rush	101.5	17		166.5	30
Pass	244.5	8		212.0	17
Total	346.0	10		378.5	27
Pts	18.0	25		22.5	14
	NO def.			GB off.
Rush	102.0	14		88.0	24
Pass	160.0	7		188.5	23
Total	262.0	5		276.5	25
Pts	16.0	T-5		31.0	2
T/O
Takeaways	4	T-7th		3	T-12th
Giveaways	3	T-15th		0	T-1st
Diff.	1	T-11th		3	T-5th

The Saints, based on yardages, are a very strong and balanced team. For some reason, they just don’t score points. They do a great job of limiting points, as mentioned above, those quarterbacks they faced (Tannehill in week 1, and rookie Bryce Young in week 2), struggled. Tannehill threw 3 interceptions which New Orleans scored 10 points off of those leading them to a 1-point victory. The following week, the rookie Young was pedestrian and was shut down for essentially the entire game until a late touchdown (Carolina’s first of the game) came with 1:58 left.

Love will need to continue to take care of the football and keep his defense off the field, while scoring points. Where the Packers can benefit is they have the best pass blocking unit in the NFL so far on this young season, and the Saints need time to get to the quarterback, so there should be some opportunities to get chunk plays, but Jordan MUST convert them, otherwise it’ll be a repeat of the 4th quarter last week and New Orleans’ defensive backs will continue to gain confidence and could shut down the Packers receiving corps.

It doesn’t help that Green Bay may be without their 4 best offensive players: Bakhtiari; Jenkins; Watson; Jones. To compound the issue, Green Bays’ BEST overall player, Jaire Alexander, may miss the game too. That’s essentially 5 of their top 8 players missing in action…possibly.

All in all, it seems to be a pretty even matchup, as New Orleans has a bunch of veterans that have experience, but Green Bay has the talent and speed to compete with anyone on any day, hence why they’re favored. Plus it’s the home opener, a great opportunity to start the season strong and get out the gate at 2-1.

Saints 27 (+1)
Packers 24

Season: 1-1
Overall: 88-53

New year, new Quarterback, same ‘ol Bears. It shouldn’t come as a shock that the NFL’s worst team in 2022, got worse over the off-season, ended up getting…worse. While Chicago isn’t great, despite what their fan base chirped about for months, the Packers did what they were supposed to do, as did Jordan Love. Love ran the offense, not perfectly, but executed well enough to put up 31 points. What separated Love’s performance from a-manyd expectations, was his production on money downs (3rd & 4th downs). Love was a perfect 158.3 QB rating on those downs, and that was the difference in the entire game.

Following the 1st drive, where the Packers scored a touchdown on 11 plays, they went to running backs 7 (63.6%) of those plays. On drive 2, 3, and 4 of the game, the Packers got away from the rushing attack, running 12 plays only accruing 33 yards. Green Bay ended up sticking with the rush attack, even though it didn’t produce a ton. Of the 60 plays Green Bay ran in the game, the Packers rushed it 32 (53%) times, which is a great balance. By doing so, the Packers only had 92 yards on the ground, for a measley average of 2.9 yards/rush, but they controlled the game throughout, and it opened the passing game for Jordan Love. Jones and Dillon combined for 26 touches and 163 total yards (6.3 yards/touch), with 2 touchdowns. It was mostly Showtime’s production, but continuing to feed the running backs is the name of the game for the Packers, should they want to be successful this year.

In addition to Love, Jones, and the offense doing its part – Quay Walker and the defense brought their lunch pail too. The D gave up 20 points, took it away twice, and scored on the lone interception of the ballgame. The Packers controlled the line of scrimmage, which dictated the outcome of the game. Keep that up all year and this team could be dangerous.

Has Atlanta Rebuilt to a Contender?

Now Green Bay travels to one of the coolest stadiums in the NFL, Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Located in the heart of downtown Atlanta, it does have the new field turf, which has (correctly) received much backlash for the Aaron Rodgers achilles injury, as well as the huge uptick in injuries occurring on that type of field.

The Falcons are a different team than Chicago, and they’re a bit better. Atlanta did, however, give up 154 yards rushing which Green Bay should capitalize on with their likely-continued ground attack. Look for the offense to run (pun intended) through Showtime (Aaron Jones) and to make things easier – again – for Jordan Love in the passing game. This is the best recipe for any QB at any level; balance.

There are a few players to watch when Atlanta rocks their throwbacks…uber-athletic TE Kyle Pitts (#8), the highest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson (#7), and WR Drake London (#5).

The Packers should benefit from MLB Quay Walker passing concussion protocol and being available to help cover all 3 of these guys – especially Bijon and Pitts. Should Green Bay generate pressure and get QB Desmond Ridder to rush a few throws and believe he’s under more duress during the game than he actually is, while that’s great to get vs. all opposing QBs, he really seems to struggle and it could create a looooong day in Hotlanta.

Packers 27 (+1.5)
Falcons 24

Season: 1-0
Overall: 88-52

Considering this is the first Quarterback not named Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers to start a week 1 game for the Green Bay Packers since September 6th, 1992 – we’re in for something. The news story is Jordan Love, and should be, however the expectations are the unknown (also as they should be?).

Considering this is the first Quarterback not named Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers to start a week 1 game for the Green Bay Packers since September 6th, 1992 – we’re in for something. The news story is Jordan Love, and should be, however the expectations are the unknown (also as they should be?). Many writers and “experts” have gone back to Aaron Rodgers’ first year as a starter (2008 season) since the parallels are hard to ignore, and used that as a barometer for both stat line and team record. That’s not a bad thought – others have used Matt LaFleur’s inaugural season as Green Bay’s 15^th head coach. Rodgers’ stat line there wasn’t great, but one thing stuck out for me was the TD:INT ratio.

• 353/569 (62%)
• 4002 yards
• 26 TD
• 4 INT
• 95.4 rating (12^th)

That’s a solid stat line, coupled with an opportunistic defense and a lot of close wins, the Packers went 13-3 that season and ended up with the 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. If Jordan Love mimics that stat line, it wouldn’t be out of the question that Green Bay posts another 13-win season, which would be huge moving forward. However, I’d expect essentially the same stats, but with a few more interceptions as the communication and relationship Rodgers and Davante had been one of the best in the NFL, and Love needs time to generate anything close to that – which is why Rodgers’ interceptions were so low.

Never in history, has a fan base of such an awful team talked so much trash. Bear nation has run its mouth about Justin Fields winning MVP and overtaking the Packers in the head-to-head matchup. To quote Kevin Garnett, “Anything is possible!,” Justin Fields would be on his own island of players to flip a switch with such a sample size and just become good. Outside of one-year wonders, Fields is essentially what he is, a super athletic QB that can make a throw or two, then again, what pro QB can’t make 1-2 throws, total?

There’s a great website, nflrankings.theringer.com, that deep dives on grading and analytics of Quarterbacks and ranks them in a video game style that’s easy to understand. What’s funny is they have Jordan Love ranked above Fields and the knock-on Love is due to him being “a mystery,” and the praise of Fields is “He puts the fear of God in FL defenses…right up until the ball leaves his hands.” I can’t think of a harsher knock on a QB than that.

Don’t get me wrong, can Fields take over a game and win? Sure. Plenty of athletic QBs have decimated Green Bay since the Randall Cunningham days (let’s not forget Kaepernick in 2012 running rampant), but is this something to be worried about long-term and think Fields will take over the NFL? Put it this way, if Fields is still QB of the Bears in 3 years, that’s going to be REALLY good for one of these franchises, likely the Packers.

How can Green Bay keep the streak going? Implied above, the Packers can limit the mistakes by shortening the game and running the ball behind their solid offensive line, thus opening passing lanes for Love and the young, yet dangerous, receiving targets. One of those targets, Watson, will be OUT and it’ll be even more imperative for Love to execute the gameplan and get the ground game going early and often.

The other main item to keep an eye on is Rashan Gary. The Packers have solid pass rush, and with their stud, they may boast one of the best in the NFL. However, Gary is coming off a torn ACL last year in Detroit, and typically guys don’t return to 100% until the 2nd season after returning. There are a few instances of guys returning the following year, but it’s rare and they’re usually superstars (ala Adrian Peterson and Willis McGahee), which Rashan Gary may be, but look for him to be on a pitch count, and hopefully super effective. Green Bay does have Gary listed as the starting OLB on the team depth chart, which is a great sign as the Packers are usually one of the more conservative teams when it comes to injuries.

For Week 1 in the NFL, there’s not much to typically be made of it, for what it’s worth, the last 10 eventual Super Bowl winners have gone 8-2 in week 1. I will say, in terms of trash talk, the outcome of this game will have more impact on Bear fans should they lose vs. Packer fans if Green Bay falls. I’m guessing it’ll be a close game, but the Packers have the better OL, DL, and QB. Turnovers will likely dictate the outcome in this one, and when Green Bay loses, it’s because of the turnover battle.

Packers 27 (+1.5)
Bears 23

Season: 0-0
Overall: 87-52

Will this become a familiar sight? Kansas City has participated in 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls, and is quickly becoming a dynasty. My definition of Dynasty would be winning 3 rings in a 5 year stretch…typically 3 of 4, but if you win 3+ over 4-5 years, that qualifies for me.

Most of you will be wondering my thoughts on Green Bay- and that’s fine- but the entire NFL is just as fun and exciting. So alas, here we go!

AFC				NFC
East				East
Buffalo	12	5		Philadelphia	14	3
New York	8	9		Dallas	12	5
Miami	8	9		New York	9	8
New England	7	10		Washington	4	13
North				North
Pittsburgh	12	5		Green Bay	11	6
Cincinnati	12	5		Detroit	10	7
Baltimore	11	6		Chicago	7	10
Cleveland	8	9		Minnesota	5	12
West				West
Kansas City	14	3		San Francisco	13	4
Denver	10	7		Seattle	8	9
Los Angeles	10	7		Los Angeles	5	12
Las Vegas	8	9		Arizona	2	15
South				South
Jacksonville	13	4		Tampa Bay	7	10
Indianapolis	6	11		New Orleans	6	11
Tennessee	4	13		Atlanta	6	11
Houston	4	13		Carolina	6	11
Playoffs
Kansas City	14	3	1	Philadelphia	14	3
Jacksonville	13	4	2	San Francisco	13	4
Pittsburgh	12	5	3	Green Bay	11	6
Buffalo	12	5	4	Tampa Bay	7	10
Cincinnati	12	5	5	Dallas	12	5
Baltimore	11	6	6	Detroit	10	7
Denver	10	7	7	New York	9	8

If you’d like to see how I got the Packers to 11-6, I’ll share here:

Week	Opponent	W/L
1	at Chicago	W
2	at Atlanta	W
3	v New Orleans	W
4	v Detroit	W
5	at Las Vegas	L
6	BYE
7	at Denver	L
8	v Minnesota	W
9	v LA Rams	W
10	at Pittsburgh	L
11	v LA Chargers	W
12	at Detroit	L
13	v Kansas City	L
14	at NY Giants	L
15	v Tampa Bay	W
16	at Carolina	W
17	at Minnesota	W
18	v Chicago	W

Wild Card

After the 2023 Regular Season plays out exactly like I’ve stated above, the Arizona Cardinals will have successfully tanked and “earned” the #1 overall pick, and the playoff matches will be set:

Broncos @ Jaguars
Ravens @ Steelers
Bengals @ Bills
Giants @ 49ers
Lions @ Packers
Cowboys @ Buccaneers

Divisional

The winners are bolded above, and the following matchups ensue:

Ravens @ Chiefs
Bills @ Jaguars
Cowboys @ Eagles
Packers @ 49ers

Championship Sunday

As usual, it pays to play at home in January as all 4 home teams advance to play in Championship Sunday. A repeat of the NFC title game, except SF’s QB, Brock Purdy, is able to throw a football and the outcome is drastically different, with San Francisco hoisting the George Halas trophy. Not much changes on the AFC side, with Pat Mahomes taking the Lamar Hunt trophy after hosting a 6th consecutive AFC Championship Game.

49ers @ Eagles
Jaguars @ Chiefs

It’ll be a rematch of Super Bowl LIV where the San Francisco 49ers will appear in their 8th Big Game and take of the dyNASTY of that what is Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Much like Mahomes’ other 2 victories, he will become damn near unstoppable in the 4th quarter and take over the game.

49ers 27
Chiefs 31

The offseason seems like it takes forever, while simultaneously seems to fly by. It likely has something to do with most of it occurring in Summer, and Wisconsin summers being in early July and end about now (early September). The Packers are entering their 105th season of football and history seems to have repeated itself once again. The changing of the tides at the most important position in all of sports; Quarterback.

Jordan Love threw 21 of 33 (63.6%), 183 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, with a passer rating of 109.8. He also had 4 rushes for 33 yards (8.3 yards/rush). That’s a solid stat line and essentially came to a game’s worth of play. From my perspective, stats tell one story, however the biggest item that caught my eye was his footwork. He lacked “happy feet” in the pocket. He didn’t look rushed and seemed quite deliberate in his play – akin to a seasoned vet.

A large reason for Love “looking the part” in preseason had to be his offensive line. According the Pro Football Focus, between LG Elgton Jenkins (#74), C Josh Myers (#71), RG Jon Runyan Jr. (#76), C/G Zach Tom (#50), T Yosh Nijman (#73), and T Rasheed Walker (#63) — a group that played a majority of starter snaps — combined for 305 pass-blocking snaps. The entire group gave up 2 QB pressures. Those two pressures were allowed by Walker, who’s coming into his own, and he also played the most snaps of the afore mentioned group, with 78. An almost inconceivable rate.

In fact, the Packers allowed only 1 sack the entire preseason. It was with 3rd string QB, Alex McGough, and even that was a sack that lost 0 yards. The Packers are built to win in the trenches, especially on offense, and control the game by using their biggest weapon – the backfield.

How Good Can Green Bay Be?

The Packers boasted a very solid preseason performance, and may have won all 3 games had the matchup with New England not been suspended due to Patriots’ CB Isaiah Bolden was carted off after being hit by a teammate in the 4th quarter of the 2nd preseason game.

Even following that game, Pro Football Focus had Green Bay ranked as the best offense AND defense of the entire preseason. While I like to reference PFF, they’re not the Bible, but it can give context rankings to things that lack context – ala preseason production. Would it be shocking if the Packers finished with one of the best records in the NFC? No. Would it be if they finished with one of the worst? Also no. Reason being, the Packers are once again loaded with talent, however they now have the youngest roster in the NFL – meaning there are going to be plenty of plays/games they could/should win and yet it’ll seem like inexperience let them down. Conversely, there will be tons of highlights from “unknown” players that will make this one of the most exciting seasons in quite some time.

Running Back Market – What’s Up?

NFL fans are finally waking up to the fact that teams don’t prioritize running backs, and some are even realizing the better the team the less likely they are to place premium $ on the position in total. This tweet has made the rounds across social media, but it’s very accurate – in the NFL, money must be allocated precisely and efficiently across the most productive positions and running back isn’t one of them, it’s just how it is and it has been for some time.

The % of salary committed to NFL backfields shows a trend. Some of the teams that commit the most, may be “good,” but aren’t realistic contenders to win the Vince Lombardi trophy.

As you can see, the Packers rank 12th in backfield spend. Meanwhile the reigning champs (and best team in the NFL over the past 4 years), Kansas City rank 25th. The premium of money allocated likely follows the positions that should be taken in the 1st round of the NFL Draft: QB; OL; DL; Edge; CB. Those are the most difficult positions to find and the most difficult to stock talent/production, so the best teams allocate money towards those positions and can fill in the other roster spots (WR, Safety, Inside LB, WR, TE, P, and K) on the cheap, typically.

The nice thing with Green Bay, while they’re in the top 50% of backfield spend, they arguably have one of, if not the, best backfield(s) in the NFL – and the way LaFleur runs his offense (which we’ll see this year without Captain Audible) is through the backfield and misdirection. Aaron Jones is an absolute weapon and “The Mayor of Door County,” A.J. Dillon, is a perfect compliment. This team is set up for the long run and assuming Jordan Love is the man, they could compete for the division as early as this season.