It’s here, the first of 3 days of the NFL Draft, the best method to build a team.  Again, drafting is always about the future- no one should expect contributions (major) from rookies.  Yes they happen, however that’s not the primary reason to take a player.  When looking at the teams that have had long-term “success,” yes I’ll include the Packers in that grouping for the sake of conversation…those teams have focused on acquiring draft picks vs. trading them away for current assets.

The Packers enter the 2019 NFL Draft with 10 draft selections, two in the 1^st round tonight.  Based on everything I’ve read and have deciphered, it seems this draft has 3-4 players that could be studs (Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, Ed Oliver, and Josh Allen) and then a bunch of players in the 2^nd tier.  As unpopular as it was under Ted Thompson, trading back (if getting the proper value) may be the best option as the Packers sit at 12 and could garner the same value/quality of player at, let’s say, 20 while netting additional draft equity.

I won’t be attempting to guess what the Packers will do, there are too many variables, as well as players they could take.  However, there’s been some talk (not as recent) that Ed Oliver (one of those 3-4 stud players) could drop.  I don’t believe that will happen, but I could see a scenario present itself for Green Bay to maybe even trade up to get a player of his caliber.  Again, very unlikely, then again every few years there are players that drop, inexplicably, in the draft and are a tremendous value.  The Packers may be in one of the best positions, thanks to last year’s trade with New Orleans, of having a top 2^nd-tier draft position (12^th) and an additional 1^st round selection (30^th via the Saints) to do whatever they please.  If a great talent falls, take him.  If not, see what value you can net with a trade partner, if no, then you’re taking a top 2^nd-tier talent that could possibly help this year (again don’t bank on it), but also really help for the next 7+ seasons.

It’ll be fun to watch everything unfold, but I’ll at least give my “dream scenario” for tonight, not including trades.  True dream would be trading, like last year by adding an additional 1^st round pick and only moving back 4 places- I doubt that’ll happen again.

12^th—Ed Oliver DT-Houston (he’s likely gone by the 4^th or 5^th selection)
30^th—Nasir Adderley S-Delaware

Other names to watch for:
-Devin White LB-LSU
-Devin Bush LB-Michigan
-TJ Hockenson TE-Iowa
-Jonah Williams T-Alabama
-Montez Sweat Edge Rusher-Miss St.
-*Brian Burns Edge Rusher-FSU

*If the Packers take him, my cousin will flip out.  He’s a diehard Florida St. fan and Burns never produced to the hype, then builds more hype by having a great combine…seems like all flash, no substance.  Then again, what do I know?

Have fun!

The schedule was released last night, furthering the attention-hold the NFL has on sports fans.  I’m not the biggest fan of Commissioner, Roger Goodell, however since he’s been in charge the NFL has become a 12 month business.  Every year I’m reminded of this by the Schedule Release, and the attention it garners.

Like the previous coach did, let’s break this down into quarters.

1^st:

Week 1 @ Chicago (Thur)
Week 2 v Minnesota
Week 3 v Denver
Week 4 v Philadelphia (Thur)

2^nd:
Week 5 @ Dallas
Week 6 v Detroit (Mon)
Week 7 v Oakland
Week 8 @ Kansas City

3^rd:
Week 9 @ Los Angeles Chargers
Week 10 v Carolina
Week 12 @ San Francisco
Week 13 @ New York Giants

4^th:
Week 14 v Washington
Week 15 v Chicago
Week 16 @ Minnesota (Mon)
Week 17 @ Detroit

Essentially, rule any primetime home game as a Win: Weeks 4; 6. Adversely rule any primetime road games as losses: Weeks 1; 8; 16.  So now it’s about when the Packers match-up vs particular opponents.  If the Packers, typically, get off to a rough start, that doesn’t bode well as they have 5 of their first 7 games at home meaning 6 of their last 9 on the road…again, interesting, but the scheduling didn’t do many favors as the Packers have a distinct advantage of home games late in the season – time will tell.

Next week, the draft!  Always fun!

With the Bucks being the best kind of boring possible—absolutely dominating the entire league and clinching the best-record with 3 games remaining—it left all of the attention to the Brewers.  Yet again, not to the fault of the Brew Crew, the attention quickly shifted to the Packers and their uber-talented Quarterback.  A piece by Bleacher Report’s, Tyler Dunne (former Packers’ beat writer) came out and slandered former Packers’ coach, Mike McCarthy, and Aaron Rodgers.

Regardless your opinion of each, the article can only cause damage—even if 100% false.  I’m sure if you’re reading this you’ve at least heard about the article and likely Rodgers’ response, along with James Jones’, Davante Adams’, and a few others.  Either way, as a diehard Packer fan, you hope this is all used as proper motivation and can bring this team together.  However, the timing of the article might’ve been as “good” as possible.  It came on the forefront of the team reporting for some training, it allowed for an immediate response, instead of having it sit and dwell for months.  The other nice thing is the draft is quickly approaching and as always, will be very important.

We’re 2 weeks from the NFL Draft, and Green Bay still has a few holes that can be addressed in the draft, with a real expectation that rookies could fill those holes adequately enough to get this team back to the playoffs.  Yes the goal is to win the Super Bowl, however, with a new Head Coach, and essentially an entire rebuild finished (aside from the QB), major progress would be welcomed with hopes of winning a Super Bowl in the next 4 years.  It’s what we as fans have been struck down to expecting (realistically).  See you again in 2 weeks for the draft!

I, like many, misjudged the Brewers, however I’ll say I REALLY missed on their result.  However, as I mentioned in the Bucks catch-up, the Brewers completely shifted expectations to the point where, by not winning the World Series, possibly failed.  How so?  It’s hard to imagine having a better situation to win than hosting Game 7 of the NLCS with your Ace on the mound.

Now the Brewers are in a position, entering a season, where the fans’ expectations should be quite high.  This is newer territory, however the way this team is constructed, there should be real belief that this team should contend for another deep playoff run.

As I write this, there’s a few injuries that have flared up and putting the Brewers largest strength (bullpen) in handcuffs.  Shoulder soreness for Jeremy Jeffress and a torn UCL (elbow) for Corey Knebel—which means the pen management will even be more essential to the Brewers’ success in 2019.  The change the Brewers did make is adding Catcher Yasmani Grandal, whom will add quite a bit of pop to the lineup (24 HRs, 68 RBI), which may be even higher hitting in Miller Park vs pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium.  All in all, if the Brewers have heavy contributions from Moose and Grandal to make up for whatever Yelich isn’t providing (is it possible to replicate his 2018 campaign?  Possibly) it’s very realistic to expect the Brewers to be the cream of the crop.

I believe the Brewers are every bit as good as last year, but their record may dip a bit as the NL Central has improved with the additions made by the Cardinals and Reds.

Prediction Time!

Brewers record: 92-70
Astros > Cubs

March 27, 2019 at 7:41am CST—the Milwaukee Bucks currently hold the NBA’s best record, by 4 games, with six to play.  Essentially the realization the Bucks will finish with the best record ensuring home-court advantage throughout the entire playoffs is upon us.

For those that follow, you’re aware I don’t often write about the Bucks, however I’ve been a fan since I was a child, have attended games annually, and figured with their deserved attention that it would make sense to offer a perspective to some that may or may not be seeking it…if that makes sense.

The Bucks came into the 2018/2019 campaign with the goal in mind to Win a Playoff Series.  However, with what’s transpired 76 games into the season, they’re (on paper) clearly the best team in the Association and have the best player (Giannis Antetokounmpo), the expectations have shifted…or have they?  At this point, with what the Bucks have shown, wouldn’t it feel like a downer if the Bucks don’t win the NBA Finals?

I’m all about winning championships, but even I can understand if the Bucks lose a series in the Finals to the well-experienced (and arguably one of the all-time great 5-year franchise runs) Warriors team.  Even then, like the Brewers last year, many enjoyed the ride, if the Bucks find themselves with home court advantage in the Eastern Conference Finals, or NBA Finals, and not capitalizing on that would seem like blowing an opportunity that they may not have again…then again, with Giannis, who knows?  That kid is special beyond talent.

Regardless, expect the Bucks to be favored in each series they play in the Playoffs, and expect them to win it.

Much goings on for Wisconsin sports fans as of March 26^th, 2019.  The Packers had quite the activity in free agency, the Bucks continue their dominance of the NBA, and the Brewers are ramping up to take the next step and win the World Series.  Let’s break this down in a 3-day look, shall we?

Today let’s take a look at the Green Bay Packers.  Coming off an awful season (record-wise, but the changes came as a result, so look at it as an investment), the Packers have essentially rebuilt the entire organization, top to bottom, except for the QB position.  They invested more years and money into Aaron Rodgers, meaning:

1. Gutekunst and the Packers brass were either too scared to send him off and complete the full on rebuild OR…
2. Gutekunst and the rest believe they can rebuild around #12 to get back to the playoffs (which I believe is their ultimate goal, back to consistent playoff appearances) which gives them a “chance” at winning it all.

Either way, it’s better than changing nothing, so it’s a major step in the right direction.

Many fans are sad to see Clay Matthews and Randall Cobb leave, along with having an opportunity to resign Jordy Nelson since Oakland cut him…I get the fondness of fans wanting to bring back and/or keep fan-favorite players, however those 3 were not contributing to the improvement of the team, but more so kept Green Bay at a level to not fall below the line to where they’ve recently gone, missing the playoffs.  Either way, each guy seemed great, weren’t a distraction, however cost quite a bit of money and has since been replaced with younger, and likely improving players at their positions.  Again, it’s a change in the proper direction.

Free Agency—well for those who wanted to build through free agency, here you go.  I like Free Agency, in the NFL, for filling some holes and adding depth vs. filling needs where you need key players.  Main reason is free agency rarely works out for those big contracts.  The Packers invested in 4 free agents last year, two returning to their initial teams (House and Tramon), and none made an impact. Actually all could be considered a waste, so 0-for-4.  *ProFootballFocus ratings, rankings*

• Davon House, 28.8 (unranked, injured)
• Tramon Williams, 68.0 (67^th Safety)
• Muhammad Wilkerson, 76.5 (unranked, injured)
• Jimmy Graham, 59.4 (48^th TE)

As you can see, not that ProFootballFocus is the end all be all, but it does at least show a consistent grade to quantify the value of players in addition to looking at their stats.  Regardless, if you watched Packer games closely, or even more than once, you would know these players didn’t contribute much to the season, especially to their contracts.

Brian Gutekunst is doubling down, in a sense, on free agency, in hopes these “proven” players add value and aren’t finished improving.  It’s a dangerous game, then again without taking risks, there’s no real expectation to win.  Let’s take a look at the incoming FAs:

• Za’Darius Smith, 71.7 (33^rd Edge-rusher)
• Preston Smith, 76.9 (19^th Edge-rusher)
• Adrian Amos, 82.7 (8^th Safety)
• Billy Turner, 62.8 (33^rd Guard)

Just from an incoming standpoint coming off their 2018 campaigns, each of these players should increase production at areas of need, which (on paper) allows the Packers to attack the draft, properly; drafting best player available.

Since we have a month until the Draft, I’ll cover potential targets closer to the date (Thu, April 25^th).  In the meantime, keep in mind the Packers essentially went through a rebuild at almost every area, and replaced older players with youth and improving talent, aside from the QB position, which they’re obviously married to, based on their actions.

Well, the best continue to prove why, well, they’re the best.  Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck were both on display on the biggest stage and out-shined their opponents in every aspect.  Belicheck held the 2^nd best offense to 3 points, while Brady out-dueled the youngster, Goff, especially in crunch time.  Many will say that Brady is the Luckiest Athlete Ever, however winning 1 Super Bowl takes luck, 2 shows you have a knack of knowing how to win—winning 6?  Yeah, you’re the best ever, it’s not a conversation.  Goff missed a wide open WR (Cooks) in the 4^th quarter for a potential TD, which would’ve tied the game. Then threw just an awful interception on a ball that should’ve never been thrown.  Meanwhile, when needed, Brady delivered a perfect throw to Rob Gronkowski to essentially seal his 6^th Lombardi trophy.

For everyone that hates the Patriots, trust me, it’s much easier (and better) if you just accept their greatness.  It’s likely something we’ll never see again in sports in our lifetime.  In the meantime, how can the Packers become a dynasty (3 rings in 5 years)?  Well, it starts with cutting the fat on the roster (Nick Perry, Randall Cobb, Clay Matthews, etc.) and absolutely killing this draft.

Because the Packers traded back with New Orleans, they now hold 3 draft picks in the first 44 selections.  That’s a great opportunity to have a draft like the Indianapolis Colts did in 2018 (1^st pick G Quinten Nelson, 2^nd pick Darius Leonard, DROY) which propelled them to a 10-6 record, along with a new coach after going 4-12 last year—the Colts got a new head coach, their old QB back, and an influx of young solid talent through the draft.  The year prior, the Saints also had arguably the best draft ever, which catapulted them into the playoffs after three consecutive years of 7-9.  However, the goal is to win 3 super bowls by the end of the 2023 season—in order for that to take place, the defense needs to show improvement and Aaron Rodgers must outplay his counterpart in the postseason, just as he did in each game in the 2010 run.

Have fun watching the Bucks as they’re the best team in the NBA and they just added to their arsenal without giving up much.  I’ll be off until March (combine/draft lookout time), thanks again for keeping along with me throughout these weeks!

The Big Game is upon us—the biggest single world-wide event, The Super Bowl.  This is the 53^rd installment, pitting the team that’s increased their leading appearances (this will be their 11^th), with the Rams appearing in their 4^th appearance.  If you’ve watched any pregame, or have paid attention you’d know this is the matchup of Elder vs. Wunderkind.  While it’s been covered at nausea, it’s accurate.  McVay, since taking over as LA’s Head Coach in 2017, has been the darling of the NFL and has proven to get the most out of his team.  Belichick, as always, has his team playing their best football at the best time.

Why you should root for New England—No one will catch Brady and his 5 (6 if they win today) rings, so what does it really matter if the best adds yet another one?  Nothing, nothing changes.  Also, it would hold the Rams to just 1 Super Bowl title in 4 appearances (3 since 1992).  If the Rams win, they would be yet another team to equal the Packers, furthering many fans’ perspectives of the Packers “great success.”

Why you should root for Los Angeles—the Rams and Packers are built similarly in the essence that they have a young innovative head coach, a true west coast quarterback, decent weapons on offense, and threatening HB, and the defense is built around a great talent at the D-line.  The Rams never really seemed to have all that talent until McVay arrived and they acquired a few pieces (Suh, Peters, and Talib) that are good enough to be 20^th in the NFL in points given up, which the Packers currently show to have a better defense.  So if the Rams can win, it should give hope (legitimate hope with thinking involved not just blind fandom) to Packer nation they can quickly right the ship and return to championship caliber.

Matchup—there was a matchup stat posted on NFL Network that showed McDaniels’ offenses vs. Wade Phillips’ defenses, with McDaniels getting the better of him 7 of 9 times and scoring over 29 points/game.  While I believe that’s a large enough sample size, it shouldn’t be the only indicator for what will happen in this game.

Pats’ Offense vs Rams’ Defense: 4^th (27.2 pts/gm) vs 20^th (24.0 pts/gm).  Edge goes to the Patriots for many reasons.  Mainly Tom Brady, but NE also is the best at attacking an opposing team’s weakness instead of playing to their own strength.  Expect to see many looks, but be surprised by nothing.  The Pats could open the game with 5-wide, no huddle (i.e. see the Packer game) to build a lead, or they could go heavy and establish the run with a ton of their running backs.

Pats’ Defense vs Rams’ Offense: 7^th (20.3 pts/gm) vs 2^nd (32.9 pts/gm).  Advantage Rams, however I believe it’ll be a slighter edge than the amount NE will have over them on the other side of the ball.  Expect a high-scoring game, after feeling each other out a bit, I think it’ll be a well-executed offensive game.  (Take the over).

Patriots 31
Rams 27

With the coaching staff finally taking shape, this is a very interesting time to be a Packers fan, as there has been major change across the organization, essentially conducting a full rebuild- sans quarterback.  As stated earlier in other blogs, LaFleur will bring a fresh look and hopefully get Rodgers to perform to his contract, and ultimately win games and Super Bowls…plural.

He brings in Nathaniel Hackett, former Offensive Coordinator from the Jacksonville Jaguars, with both LaFleur and Hackett bringing a much-needed focus on the run game.  The Packers will need to address the offensive line, and add a solid Tight End- assuming they don’t keep Mercedes Lewis, who called out Aaron Rodgers for changing plays in the huddle, my guess is HE GONE!

Since the Super Bowl isn’t until the following week, and a majority of the week has been taken over by the blown non-PI call in the NFC title game…AND the laughable argument about OT rules for not allowing Mahommes to “get a chance” in OT—let’s dive a little into the State of the Packers.

The major topic for Packer fans should be turned to 4 players currently on the roster with decisions to be made…

Clay Matthews, Nick Perry, Randall Cobb, and Jimmy Graham.  Considering the contracts for each (Cobb’s and Matthews’ are expired) it would make sense to cut ties with all 4, it’d also make sense to bring back Matthews and/or Cobb considering they actually bring SOME value whereas Nick Perry is straight up garbage.  Listening to a podcaster from Cheesehead TV earlier this week, had made mention about how Nick Perry is the worst player on the Packers.  Essentially he contributed nothing on any play, and since his contract year where he registered 12 sacks (including playoffs) in 2016, he’s done nothing…I wish there were another word to use, but that’s it!  Also, those 12 sacks came against $hit Tackles, left alone, or was pushed into the QB…just cut him and save the…oh wait, they can’t, his cap hit is too much, but after 2019 he will be gone and only eat $7ishM.

Randall Cobb—the influx of youth at the WR position last year pretty much forced the hand here, however the position altogether is quite interesting.

• Davante Adams = stud.
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling = promising.
• J’Mon Moore = incomplete (that’s on the coaches, this was the year to find out, b/c the Packers never were winning the Super Bowl anyway).
• Equanimeous St. Brown = high ceiling.
• Trevor Davis = return man, that’s it. He’s also not great at it so he better be gone.
• Geronimo Allison = Rodgers seems to like him, and he’s shown to know the playbook and be where he’s supposed to be, a nice 4^th
• Jake Kumerow = great story, good blood line, likely worth a shot at making the team next year

Does this leave room for Cobb to return?  If it were my call, no. Just save the $, go with youth—isn’t the plan from this new coaching staff to correct the QB?  If the QB is so great shouldn’t it be enough to have these WRs who likely will continue to improve?  Yes is the answer if you’re struggling with those questions.

Clay Matthews—likely have to bring him back, on a much lower contract, but this team has zero depth at Edge Rusher and while he’s not productive (nowhere near his first 5-6 years in the league) he still knows where to be, hustles, sets a great example, and makes some plays from time to time at the line of scrimmage.

Jimmy Graham—C YA!  I can’t think of any reason to bring him back.  Both of Rodgers’ interceptions this year came throwing to Graham over the middle, which is where he should dominate, and since he can’t get open because he’s slower than I am he should be able to outjump guys for the ball—nope.  To borrow one of my cousin’s favorite phrases he’s a true “slug, just straight garbage.”

So there ya have it, something to chew on until next week’s Super Bowl preview.

Entering Championship Sunday, much is made about the makeup of the NFL’s Final Four.  That’s the trend though, every year in every sport.  Everything is Copy-Cat—because that’s what’s worked.  It even made a strong appearance in head coaching hires (Packers included) with the hot trend being a Sean McVay-type, young and innovative.  However, the phrase “Defense wins championships” has always rung true to me with the idea that when looking at champions, it’s usually the defense that wins in the playoffs.  Yet we judge Quarterbacks by championships (at least I do) because they’re the constant as no one team can keep the same 11 defenders for the same stretch as they can 1 QB, although maybe they should.  Let’s look at the make-up of each team, shall we?

Obviously this shows the top 4 scoring teams in the NFL this year are in the Championship games for their respective conferences.  While that doesn’t jive with the “Defense Wins Championships” slogan, what it does show is offense does win games in the regular season and home field advantage is so paramount in the playoffs.  While defenses “travel” (meaning they don’t get hot at the right time, they’re just good), home field advantage has been the better indicator of whom advances in the postseason, especially those teams that have a 1^st round bye.  Since the 2013 season, every Super Bowl participant will have had a 1^st round bye, and all would have been the 1 seed except for the 2016 Falcons.  While anything can happen, and any team can beat another, of course, recent odds/trends show that the home teams will prevail on Championship Sunday- which would make many fans happy, considering the Patriots actually did not earn the 1 seed this year.

Following that trend, let’s take a look at those Super Bowl Matchups:

As you can see by the graph above, the better ranked defense bested the opposition in 4 of the last 5 Super Bowl matchups.  So it’s safe to say, the best way to win the Super Bowl is to have the 1 seed and to have the better ranked defense in the Super Bowl…or Tom Brady, whatever is easier.

For the interest in most of the people reading this (if you still are), where does that leave the Packers?  We’ll take a closer look come Super Bowl week.

In the meantime, hopefully these should be some great games!