To keep (any) integrity with picking/predicting, one should reflect on passed selections.  For my season predictions, I went through the entire schedule grid for each team, picking each winner thus counting it as a loss for those other teams that, well, lost.  In doing so I correctly selected 10 of the 14 playoff participants.  I missed three in the AFC: Pittsburgh; Cincinnati; Las Vegas.  I only missed one in the NFC: Philadelphia.

As for the Super Bowl, I had Cincinnati finishing last in the AFC North with a record of 4-13.  The Los Angeles Rams were picked to go 9-8, get the 6^th seed and lose to the 3^rd seeded Packers at Lambeau Field in the Wild Card round. 

Speaking of those Green Bay Packers, I missed their overall record by 1 game, concluding 12-5 (instead of 13-4, although if needed, they likely win Week 18 and go 14-3).  I missed by 2 seeds.  The odd thing is I did have them losing to the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round- had I gone back and looked prior to the matchup, I still likely pick the Packers in my weekly pick, but that’s a pretty close hit.

All in all, I fared better than I initially thought once the playoffs commenced and especially once the Super Bowl match up was determined.

I’ve been close before on picking Super Bowl participants, but this year was filled with much parody – it’s resulted in us living in a world where “Going For It” or “All In” carries more weight than every before…oh, and Matthew Stafford is now a Super Bowl Champion.  Very odd.

What does the typical Super Bowl champion resemble?  Let’s take a dive into what it takes to win a World Championship.  Since the NFL has 2 to 3 different timelines, let’s use the most-recent one; Free Agency (1993 season). 

Year	SB Champion	Off	Def	Pt. Diff.	Seed
1993	Dallas Cowboys	2	2	2	1
1994	San Francisco 49ers	1	6	1	1
1995	Dallas Cowboys-2	3	3	2	1
1996	Green Bay Packers	1	1	1	1
1997	Denver Broncos	1	6	1	4
1998	Denver Broncos-2	2	8	2	1
1999	St. Louis Rams	1	4	1	1
2000	Baltimore Ravens	14	1	2	4
2001	New England Patriots	6	6	7	2
2002	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	18	1	2	2
2003	New England Patriots-2	12	1	1	2
2004	New England Patriots-3	4	2	1	2
2005	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	4	5	2
2006	Indianapolis Colts	3	23	9	3
2007	New York Giants	14	17	13	5
2008	Pittsburgh Steelers-2	20	1	5	2
2009	New Orleans Saints	1	20	1	1
2010	Green Bay Packers-2	10	2	2	6
2011	New York Giants-2	9	25	19	4
2012	Baltimore Ravens-2	10	12	11	4
2013	Seattle Seahawks	9	1	2	1
2014	New England Patriots-4	4	8	1	1
2015	Denver Broncos-3	19	4	10	1
2016	New England Patriots-5	3	1	1	1
2017	Philadelphia Eagles	3	4	1	1
2018	New England Patriots-6	4	7	5	2
2019	Kansas City Chiefs	5	7	4	2
2020	Tampa Bay Buccaneers-2	3	8	4	5
	Avg.	7	7	4	2

Since the beginning of the 1993 NFL season, the eventual Super Bowl Champion has ranked 7^th in scoring offense, 7^th in scoring defense, 4^th in point differential, and has had an average postseason seed of 2^nd – a bye.

Including this season, 70% of Super Bowl champions had a bye from the wild car round, which makes sense for two reasons: 1. Better teams earn a bye; 2. A full game less chance to be eliminated.

Again, the most indicative ranking of team strength is the point differential ranking; 4^th.  Including the 2021 season, 66% of eventual champions, or roughly 2 of every 3 are ranked 4^th or better. 

How does Green Bay compare?  The Packers have ranked 7^th or better in scoring offense 18 times.  The defense has ranked 7^th or better on eight occurrences since 1993.  The opportunities have been there for the Packers to capitalize on their True Team Strength, yet this has led to heartbreak after countless heartbreak.  Green Bay has lost on the final play in the postseason 8 times since the 1998.

What does this all mean?  The Packers have had a “good enough” defense to win more than 2 Super Bowls in this time frame, assuming Quarterback is as important as everyone says it is – meaning either the Quarterbacks Green Bay has had since 1993 aren’t nearly as good as many have claimed OR the position really isn’t that important.  It can’t be both, or can it?