Review: Titans 27, Packers 17~ The Packers are left with zero margin for error the remainder of the season. Rodgers now has a convenient excuse of a broken thumb for why he’s resembled his typical January self, all season. Green Bay never committed to the run, ‘nor had much success with it (56 yards on 29 attempts).

The Packers did win the turnover battle, but like all season, the offense did nothing with it. Once they fell down 27-17 (final score), the Packers’ last 4 drives went:

1. 3 plays, 3 yards (3 and out)
2. 3 plays, -2 yards (3 and out)
3. 4 plays, 7 yards (3 and out)
4. 10 plays, 37 yards (downs)

You score on each of those possessions, even field goals…

Tannehill ended up being too much, and our QB couldn’t come through, even thought the Titans have far less talent and many more injuries…weird, eh?

Matchup~

	GB D	(rank)	vs.	Phi O	(rank)
Rush	135.8	26		142.5	6
Pass	192.5	5		228.1	13
Total	328.3	14		370.6	5
Pts	22.1	16		26.3	3
	GB O			Phi D
Rush	122.6	14		122.2	18
Pass	222.3	18		178.4	2
Total	344.9	15		300.6	2
Pts	18.4	26		18.3	2
T/O
Takeaways	11	T-23rd		21	1st
Giveaways	15	T-22nd		9	T-2nd
Diff.	(4)	T-26th		12	1st

As this game is underway, Philly is arguably the best team in the NFL – while Green Bay must win out to have a chance at the postseason. The Eagles have an extreme advantage when the Packers’ offense is on the field. The turnover differential is incredible, look for that (as always) to be a key.

Other than that, let’s see if the highest paid QB in NFL history can resemble a starting caliber QB, let alone earn his paycheck by winning Super BowlSSSS

Packers 20
Eagles 34 (-6.5)

Season: 5-6
Overall: 86-48

Review: Packers 31; Cowboys 28 (OT)~ for some reason that game felt bigger than just a regular season game. Maybe because Green Bay really isn’t good and that may be their best performance for the entire season…OR — is it a defining moment that will get fans excited to think this team will actually win the Super Bowl? The answer is, obviously, both.

What’s not surprising is how Green Bay was able to get back into the game and outscore Dallas 14-0 in the 4th quarter, due to having stuck with the run all game. Much of it came from under center, which is the best way to run a balanced attack. Halfbacks Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon combined for 37 rushes totaling 203 yards and a touchdown. When you rush for 200+ yards, your chances of winning is going to be close to 100%, unless you turn the ball over immediately after your defense takes it away for you (see the Bills game).

Speaking of the defense, they began the game with consecutive 3 & outs, setting the tone for the game. While they gave up big plays and 28 points, they did force a turnover on downs in overtime. Plus the huge move of Darnell Savage to slot corner giving Rudy Ford playing time at safety paid off in a manner no one could’ve predicted.

Lastly, for what it’s worth, David Bakhtiari has now amassed enough snaps played to register on the Sacks & Pressures allowed stat line, and he’s given up *knocks on wood* none; all season. Playing into that, did anyone notice if all-world linebacker, Micah Parsons, played at Lambeau? Such an amazing thing what a commitment to running the ball will do, keep it up.

Current Standing~ the Packers currently sit as the 9th seed in the NFC, falling two spots out of the playoff hunt. They’re a game back of Washington (and lost the head to head matchup) and 1.5 games behind San Francisco (5-4) for the 7th seed. While tonight’s game isn’t a “must win,” Green Bay may have, at most, 2 losses left on the season if they’d like to get into the tournament. If that’s the case, those losses would likely have to come against AFC opponents (Titans tonight, Dolphins on Xmas) for tiebreaking scenarios. However, in reality, the Packers may be able to afford 1 or no losses for the remainder of the season, based on how teams ahead of them have been playing this campaign.

Matchup~

	Ten D	(rank)	vs.	GB O	(rank)
Rush	85.1	2		129.3	12
Pass	272.6	31		223.0	16
Total	357.7	25		253.3	13
Pts	18.7	8		18.5	25
	Ten O			GB D
Rush	133.4	9		140.6	26
Pass	148.2	31		179.7	3
Total	281.7	32		320.3	9
Pts	22.9	14		20.9	15
T/O
Takeaways	13	T-11th		10	T-20th
Giveaways	10	T-8th		15	T-27th
Diff.	3	T-8th		(5)	T-28th

Per usual, Green Bay needs to improve their turnovers…in each category. They’re bottom 3rd in taking the ball away, and damn near last at holding onto it, leading to the awful differential, which is unlike Aaron Rodgers-led teams…in the regular season.

The 2 areas to focus your attention will be:

1. Green Bay’s rushing attack going up against Tennessee’s great run D. Keep in mind, the Bills had the best run defense in the NFL before Green Bay rushed for 208 yards on only 31 attempts (6.7 yards/attempt). Stick to that pass:run ratio and the Pack should be able to pull this game out.
2. How the Packers guard against one of, if not, the most feared rushers in the NFL. The Packers are great against the pass while Tennessee ranks 31st in yards passing/game. It’s no secret what they’ll want to do…keep an eye on soft coverage (corners playing off the receiver- which I don’t like) and how much Green Bay decides to load the box.

To be an optimist, the last time these two teams played, the Packers held Henry in check — 23 carries for 98 yards. Green Bay won going away, by a final of 40-14. That was the coming out party for Door County resident A.J. Dillon, or at least for the fans that weren’t a huge fan of his in college. Should the Packers keep the same recipe, it should be a similar result. Both 1-seeds from last year are quite different this year.

Titans 27
Packers 24 (-3)

Season: 4-6
Overall: 85-48

Review: Lions 15; Packers 9~ in a must-win game, the Packers caught the ultimate break by seeing the 1-6 Lions. Those Lions also traded, arguably, their best player that week in T.J. Hockenson to the rival Minnesota Vikings. The Packers responded by scoring 9 points. There were fans, unsurprisingly most of them, upset Green Bay didn’t trade FOR a Wide Receiver or a player that could help now!

If the last 12 years has taught you nothing, maybe this last game showed that the Packers are just a QB away from winning…a Super Bowl. The defense is 2nd vs. the Pass, 6th in total yards, but 15th in points. That must mean they give up too much yardage on the ground…while not far off, their offense scores no points and gives the ball back quickly (both in time and momentum).

For example, in consecutive games, the defense intercepted the opponent and in Buffalo, Rodgers threw a pick on the very next plays. This past week, it took double that for Rodgers to give it right back. So you can say “things may be improving.” Also, I stopped counting at how many passes were thrown on RPO’s at 5. As in 5 for 5…the Lions stacked the box so Green Bay got away from the run altogether and their QB still couldn’t pull the trigger to wide open targets all game – yet another game resembling typical January.

There was an article written this week about how spoiled fans are in Green Bay because we’ve been blessed with 30+ years of Hall of Fame Quarterback play. The response to this is easy…it’s either 1 of 2 things, plus a complete misguided look at reality. If QB is so damn important to winning World Championships (which it is, due to it being the most important position in all of sports), maybe Favre and Rodgers just aren’t that good, OR….Quarterback isn’t important. Based on the amount of multiple title won by QBs with all the changing teammates around them, it’s the former. Lastly, it’s a weird way to claim “spoiled,” as the response should be, “Yes, winning 2 Super Bowls in the last 55 seasons is so spoiled that the Packers are one of 15 teams to have won 2 or more Super Bowls in that time span. So spoiled to be in the top 50% of all teams. Yes, how spoiled us fans are that are younger than 50.”

Preview: How’s Dallas?~ the Cowboys are one of the stronger teams in the NFL, currently holding the 5th seed in the NFC playoffs with a record of 6-2.

	Dal D	(rank)	vs.	GB O	(rank)
Rush	135.1	24		120.7	14
Pass	178.4	4		224.7	15
Total	313.5	10		345.3	14
Pts	16.6	3		17.1	27
	Dal O			GB D
Rush	131.5	11		138.6	26
Pass	190.6	25		170.6	2
Total	322.1	22		309.1	6
Pts	22.9	14		20.9	15
T/O
Takeaways	13	T-8th		8	T-24th
Giveaways	7	T-2nd		13	T-24th
Diff.	6	T-3rd		(5)	T-29th

Dallas is better in every matchup category other than their Passing Off v Green Bay’s Pass Def. It’s safe to say that the Cowboys would rank better if they had Dak all year, however they may not have gone 4-1 in those 5 games either because they ran the ball and played solid defense. It’s amazing how that tactic is effective…

The Cowboys have a lot of top tier talent, but the Packers have both top tier talent and solid depth. The Cowboys have two legit running backs, and use them — look for Tony Pollard (#20) and Ezekiel Elliott (#21) ‘Zeke to combine for, at least, their per game average of 25 carries for 126 yards. Green Bay is somewhat close to that with their dynamic duo, but because Rodgers has “no one to throw to,” decides to throw…the…ball. Makes sense.

Cowboys 27 (-4.5)
Packers 17

Season: 4-5
Overall: 85-47

Review: Bills 27, Packers 17~ if it weren’t clear for you that Buffalo was clearly a better team than Green Bay heading into the game, it should be crystal now…the odd part is it isn’t talent.  Green Bay seems just out of sync, and that can be directed at leadership – yes coaching and player.  More on that later.

The main things to take away was the commitment to the run game.  The Packers got away from it on the 2^nd possession, and they suffered greatly from doing so.  The other key takeaway was the defense in the 2^nd half. 

1. 2^nd half defense: gave up 28 plays; 126 yards; 3 points; 2 Interceptions; 1 punt. – extremely impressive vs. the best offense in the NFL, coming off a bye, at home on Sunday Night Football.
2. Run Game: Green Bay rushed 31 times for 208 yards and won the time of possession 33:48 to 26:12. 

They also won the turnover battle.  So Green Bay accomplished the goals I set out prior to the week, and still lost.  Something’s wrong, very wrong.

Current Status~ the Packers now have bloated salaries (even more bloated than need be) from going “All In” and 2 of those contracts (Rodgers and Bakhtiari) are killing this team – both on the field and in salary cap.  For those of you that wanted Green Bay to make a trade for THIS year, why?  This team went all in and is 3-5, with 3 very unimpressive wins. 

1. Chicago is straight trash, per usual.
2. Tampa is atrocious now.
3. New England got beat by Chicago. 

Now, the reason for hope that Green Bay can win the Super Bowl is because their defense is improving throughout the season and they have a solid OL (when healthy) and the obvious ability to commit to the run game, thus limiting the amount of big time throws Rodgers would need to make in January.  Now, getting to January, it starts with beating Detroit.

Matchup~

	GB O	(rank)	vs.	Det D	(rank)
Rush	120.5	15		154.9	30
Pass	217.4	22		266.4	27
Total	339.9	17		421.3	32
Pts	18.1	26		32.1	32
	GB D			Det O
Rush	141.3	29		136.6	10
Pass	174.8	2		258.3	17
Total	316.0	8		394.9	4
Pts	21.6	16		24.7	9
T/O
Takeaways	7	T-27th		6	T-30th
Giveaways	10	T-15th		11	T-20th
Diff.	(3)	T-23rd		(5)	T-29th

Neither team can defend the run, so if Green Bay continues to pound the rock, they should be able to move the ball at will on Detroit.  Regardless of competition, if you rack up over 200 yards on the ground, you will likely win. 

Also, after seeing the best offense in the NFL last week, Green Bay now gets to see the worst Defense.  A recipe for getting on track couldn’t be better than seeing the 1-6 Lions. 

Win the turnover battle, begin to chip away at that overall deficit on the season, rack up a boat load of yards on the ground, and find a way to win.

Packers 34 (-3.5)
Lions 24

Season: 4-4
Overall: 85-46