Chicago – After starting the season 0-2, both against the division, the Bears rattled off wins in 9 of their next 10 games. They then traded 1^st place in the NFC North with Green Bay for consecutive weeks, and had an outside chance to get the 1-seed, but Seattle took care of business against San Francisco in Week 17 locking up the Bye in the Wild Card round for the NFC side.

The Bears finished the season with the 6^th overall offense and 9^th in scoring. Chicago was buoyed by their amazing turnover differential (more on that later), leading the NFL in takeaways as well as giving it away, thus leading the league in turnover differential. The turnovers are whey Chicago won the division, let alone had a winning record. Their defense is bottom-5 in essentially every category, other than taking the ball away – which most can be argued is the opposition “giving” them the ball. The Bears defense should be a chief concern of theirs and will be the reason their season comes to an end, whether it’s this weekend or next. They’re 29^th in total defense and 23^rd in scoring – meaning their offense must be on point, or their D needs to generate at least 2 turnovers, just to be “IN” the game.

Chicago may be the most reliant team in playoff history on turnovers…they’re 2-6 in games where they don’t get at least 2 turnovers. Peter Bukowski pointed this out, even though I covered this heading into the first matchup back on Dec. 7^th. The Bears’ two wins in games they didn’t get 2 turnovers were against the Giants, where starting QB, Jaxon Dart, exited with a concussion on the play where he fumbled, the Giants’ lone turnover. The other win? Yep, against Green Bay when Jordan Love exited the game. Not to bring up painful memories, but while Green Bay only had 1 turnover (Jacobs’ fumble inside the 5-yard line), the muffed onside kick acts as a turnover, so essentially 2, bringing their record to 1-6. The lone win had Dart not been concussed, they lose that game too, kind of like the Packer game with Love…lotta fortunate bounces for this Bears team, all season.

Chicago is so reliant on turnovers that since the 2014 season, teams that win the turnover differential in the NFL have an avg. defensive ranking of 9^th in scoring. Chicago is the 3^rd team since 2014 to lead the NFL in turnover differential and have a scoring defense rank 23^rd or worse. The other teams? 2020 Tennessee and 2023 New York Giants. The Titans in 2020 lost in the Wild Card round whereas the Giants didn’t even make the playoffs in 2023. Goes to show you that while turnovers equalize a game, over the course of a season, if your defense isn’t good, turnovers help, but then again when facing the best competition, you lose.

Green Bay – the Packers have been just the opposite of the Bears in the sense of “whatever can go wrong, eventually does.” The Packers started off as well as any team in the NFL, going 2-0 after beating two of the highest thought of teams in the NFC entering into the campaign; Detroit & Washington. Once the special teams and injuries inevitably reared their ugly heads, the season flipped on its head. That culminated, at least we thought, in Denver with 12:55 left in the 3^rd quarter when Love took a kill shot, already leading 23-14, and it was intercepted by Patrick Surtain. On the play both Christian Watson and Zach Tom were injured. That killed the offense as there was no one to stretch the defense and the best pass-rush in the NFL would finally make headway. A drive or two later, Green Bay lost Micah Parsons for the season on a torn ACL – the season seemed like it ended right there. Just when we thought that was as bad as it was going to get, the special teams woke up and make 1 final appearance by snatching defeat from victory at Solider Field a week later. Not many teams enter the playoffs on a 4-game losing streak, mainly because teams that lose 4 in a row are flat out not good and don’t make the playoffs. However, this sets up yet another amazing opportunity for Green Bay to accomplish something special…again, beating Chicago is great and all, but should they lose to Seattle the following week, the season will be a disappointment.

Matchup Matrix

For the 3^rd time in 35 days the Packers will play the Bears in the 2^nd-most meaningful game between these two franchises in their history. On paper this looks like an even matchup, at least when Chicago has the ball. They’re 6^th in total offense and 9^th in scoring where as the Packers’ defense ranks 12^th and 11^th, respectfully. Keep in mind Green Bay’s defense has been faltering since Micah Parsons went on IR. For some context, here’s the disparity between having Micah vs. without:

On a per game basis, opponents are averaging an addition 6 plays, 106 yards, and the big one…9.3 more points per game against the Packers than when Micah Parsons was healthy, that is substantial. Had Green Bay finished the season giving up an average of 19.3 points per game, that would have tied them for 6^th in the NFL with Kansas City. The pace they’re on, giving up 28.6 points/game now would put them at 28^th in the league, in between Tennessee and Arizona, in terms of scoring defense…whoof.

The good news, is that the Packers didn’t have Micah Parsons in their last matchup against these Bears, and the defense was balling! Until it wasn’t. For 58:01, the Packers defense gave up 48 plays for 283 total yards (132 rushing, 151 passing) and just 9 points. That’s a dominant performance against a top-10 offense, on the road, in prime time. There’s a reason why Defensive Coordinator, Jeff Hafley, said, “We’re not done, I’ll see you next week.” It was his gameplan that stifled Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams, and the Bears offense for 97% of that game. There’s no reason to think the Packers can’t replicate that performance again. The big help for the defense came from the Packers’ offense. They controlled the time of possession, the ended the game with a 38:57 to 26:13 advantage, but before the onside kick, their advantage was 34:43 to 23:47 – meaning the Packers defense was playing almost a full quarter less of football than the Bears’. Now with a healthy Josh Jacobs and offensive line, there’s reason to believe Green Bay can mimic a similar output, but bear in mind (pun intended), many of those runs that elongated drives came on the legs of Malik Willis. On the flip side, Green Bay struggled in the red zone, going 0-for-5, that won’t happen again if Love is quarterbacking the entire game. Which has been the Packers’ bugaboo during this losing streak.

Is There A Mismatch?

When Love and the Packers have the ball, they’ll get to face the 29^th defense in the NFL…in the previous 2 matchups, Green Bay’s offense had a total of 16 “real” possessions and only punted 3 times. The issue, that we mentioned, is the Red Zone efficiency. The Packers have combined to score 1 touchdown in their 6 red zone trips across these two games. This is the one statistic that’s worth keeping an eye on for the entirety of this game.

As for moving the ball, the Packers have had no issue going up and down the field against this defense. Assuming Green Bay gets the ball 8 times, they should have 4-6 red zone trips, the goal will be to convert 3 of those trips to touchdowns. If it’s 6 trips, better make it four. The reason why you should believe Love won’t have an issue moving the ball is that in the two games against the Bears, LaFleur’s offense has amassed 721 total yards, an average of 361/game, which is 50 yards over their season average. The mismatch in this game is Green Bay’s offense vs. Chicago’s defense.

Major Concern?

The chief concern, other than turnovers and Red Zone Offense (yeah, that’s a lot), if hoping that Ben Johnson’s ego gets in the way. If Chicago commits to the run, the Packers’ defense may be in some trouble. As we’ve seen all season, the Packer defense eventually wears down and struggles to stop the ground game, ranking 15^th in the NFL against it. The best antidote to counteract it? Possess the ball – like mentioned above – quick scores are great, but long, methodical TD drives are best.

1. Don’t give the ball away
2. Score TDs in the Red Zone (50+%)
3. Control the Time of Possession

Prediction Time

Season: 10-7
Overall: 117-76

Rest v. Rust

The Packers started as many 2^nd stringers as they could, and many played well. The offensive line did some nice things, mainly Jordan Morgan – starting at his natural position, LT – but with Clayton Tune at QB, there was no chance to get any production. The ground game was “good,” overall, rushing for 128 yards on 35 attempts. This includes Emanuel Wilson’s boneheaded -19-yard rush; had he just taken the loss of 2 yards that would’ve made the rush numbers look much better…taking it to 145 yards, which is a key number, 140+ rush yards.

What we didn’t get was a good look at rookie WR Matthew Golden. Tune hasn’t been able to throw a forward pass, so that’s hurting everyone’s development, or at least cost a great opportunity to see more prospects. It was clear the goal was to get out of this game as healthy as possible to prepare for the playoffs instead of getting any momentum or rhythm and timing. Always a tough decision, but we’ll find out.

Did Anyone Stand Out?

The kids on defense played well, mainly Barryn Sorrell (#99, pictured above) had one of the 2 Packer sacks in the game. He also had 8 tackles and has earned more playing time, in my opinion, we’ll see if that comes true on Saturday night. The major bright spot, and most-hyped, was Collin Oliver (#45), who produced more in his 1^st NFL game than Rashan Gary has in the previous 10 games – earning more playing time moving forward.

The other bright spot was newcomer, Trevon Diggs (#28). According to Pro Football Focus, Diggs played 32 snaps (17 in pass coverage, 15 in run defense), and he was targeted once. Diggs didn’t give up a catch on 1 targeted pass attempt and had 2 tackles in the run game. If he can get going that could boost the Packers’ defense in the most-needed area on this team, the defensive backfield.

Season: 9-7-1; 2nd in NFC North; 7th Seed in NFC

With the Regular Season finished, Green Bay ended the season with a 9-7-1 record, which was the 13^th-best record in the NFL…appropriately aligns with their scoring differential, which too ranked 13^th in the league at +31. It’s frustrating to think of how good this team/season would’ve been had they stayed healthy and learned earlier how not to beat themselves – but the NFL has a way of equalizing many teams every year. All in all, and as always, the Packers’ success will be determined by what they accomplish in the postseason. Keep in mind the goal upon acquiring Micah Parsons was to win the Super Bowl, hell, that was the goal BEFORE trading for Micah.

Is LaFleur Coaching For His Job?

Elaborating on expectations, there’s a chance LaFleur’s future depends on the Packers’ performance this month. While having one of the best starts to a coaching career, MLF has seen his team go just 30-23-1 (including playoffs) since Jordan Love took over at QB. The talent on this roster had fans believing (me included) more should’ve been accomplished. While I don’t think the Packers will part ways with him, regardless of the outcome of Saturday night, I believe anything short of a Conf. Title appearance will have his seat be one of, if not, the hottest in the entire NFL entering next season.

A Meaningless Game that May Influence Everything

With Green Bay locked in as the 7^th seed in the NFC Playoff Picture there’s nothing to gain by winning – other than heading into the postseason with a win instead of a 4-game losing streak. Having good vibes could work wonders for this Packers team as it’s been nothing but disaster after disaster since Patrick Surtain intercepted Jordan Love early in the 3^rd quarter of Week 15. It will have been 4 weeks to the day since Green Bay last walked off the field victorious; a 28-21 win over Chicago on December 7^th. That was their 4^th win in a row and things seemed to be on track with Green Bay looking like one of, if not, the top teams in the NFL – how cruel and quickly things change in the NFL.

Green Bay will be starting Clayton Tune at QB this Sunday against Minnesota to give Love & Willis as much time as possible to be 100% healthy and not risk further injury heading into their wild card matchup, but I fear the rhythm and timing will suffer (along with the confidence and vibes of the team) won’t be where they need to be to perform at a high-level, considering Love will not have taken meaningful snaps in a 3-week timespan. It’s a Catch-22 scenario for the Packers; either risk injury to their starting QB and other star players in a meaningless game or have them rusty as can be likely coming into a playoff game either at Chicago or Philadelphia riding a 4-game losing streak.

Big Opportunity For Everyone

Green Bay claimed ex-Cowboys cornerback, Trevon Diggs, off waivers on New Year’s Eve to help add depth to their defensive backfield. The Packers have had nothing but issues in their secondary since Micah Parsons went down with his ACL injury and the pass rush has been non-existent, thus leaving their corners to cover receivers longer, resulting in: Denver and Bo Nix torching them in the 2^nd half of Week 15; Caleb Williams lighting them up in the last 2 minutes and overtime of Week 16; Tyler Huntley having no issue carving GB’s D up all game last week. Diggs is having an awful year, allowing 16 completions on 20 targets for 286 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a perfect passer rating of 158.3 against him in 2025. There was a time when Diggs was one of the best corners in the NFL, back in 2021 he played in 16 games having 11 interceptions with 2 pick-6’s in just that season. That’s a good career for most cornerbacks. Since then, his production has dropped off and he’s been a liability for Dallas these past four seasons ultimately getting cut this week allowing him to join a playoff team. He’s only played in 8 games this season and I listed the stats against him above…however, he’s still in prime age (27 years old) and has plenty of ability to help the Packers especially given that he’s an able-bodied corner to give this team depth in one of the areas that’s a weakness of this roster. This is a great opportunity for him to right his career direction and earn a long-term contract should he and the Packers make a great showing in January.

This is also an opening for quite a few other players on this roster as it’s a “prove-it” game in some manner. Whether that’s McKinney (who’s played well all year) showing he can catch an interception, Rashan Gary actually pressuring the QB and not being owned in the run game by a 198-pound wide receiver, anyone on the defensive line holding their own against the run, or the offensive line gaining confidence and continuity by showing who wants a starting job next year…there’s plenty to keep an eye on, for us fans and the coaches. This is also a great opportunity for Matt LaFleur to showcase his 1^st round rookie WR, Matthew Golden, by getting him his first career touchdown and putting new “looks” on tape for the Bears or Eagles to gameplan around for next week. It’s worth noting that Matthew Golden began his college career at the University of Houston and his QB at Houston, his freshman year (2022) was Clayton Tune. Golden put up 38 receptions for 584 yards and 7 touchdowns with Tune at QB, so at least there’s some familiarity. As for Tune, his college career was actually pretty good, having thrown for 40 touchdowns his Senior season at Houston (Golden’s freshman year) in 2022 along with 4,074 yards and only 10 interceptions. He’s physically able to throw the football, which is not what we saw when he entered the Baltimore game last week when Malik Willis exited with a shoulder injury.

Matchup Matrix

The Packers can reverse their divisional record from a season ago by beating Minnesota on Sunday, which would put their division record at 5-1, with their lone loss coming in the Chicago-debacle. This is a completely different Vikings team than a year ago, where they were playing this week for the #1 overall seed in the NFC, but they’ve been eliminated for a month now and it’s all due to their QB situation. The Vikings decided to let QB Sam Darnold walk – eventually signing with Seattle where he’s again playing for the #1 overall seed in the NFC playoffs…mmm makes ya think. Minnesota decided to showcase their 1^st round pick from 2024, JJ McCarthy, who’s been absolutely terrible this season and it’s shown in every statistical category. The Vikings, with offensive mastermind Head Coach, Kevin O’Connell, dropped from 12^th in yards and 9^th in scoring in 2024 to 29^th and 26^th, respectively. Yet another great example for the Packers beat up defense to regain confidence and play with attitude by stifling the Purple team.

The Packers offense will have their challenges as well, facing a Brian Flores-led defense that ranks in the top-10 against the pass (3^rd), total defense (6^th), and scoring (T-9^th). Points were already hard to come by, given that a desperate Lions team (playing for their playoff lives on Christmas Day) scored only 10 points against the already eliminated Vikings, the Packers will have their 3^rd string QB starting and they showed nothing in the short amount of time he was on the field last week. This could easily be a low-scoring, tight ball game, which is what Jeff Hafley’s crew needs to have and find a way to come through – there should be ample occasions for them to generate turnovers and get right for a playoff push.

Prediction Time

Season: 9-7
Overall: 116-76

Packers Mailed It In

It’s amazing that professional athletes need motivation to “get up” for a game, but here we are. Baltimore was desperate and played with the necessary attitude to rush for 307 yards, on the road, against a very talented team. Green Bay’s effort, or lack thereof, seemed to stem from a much bigger problem; making the postseason apparently is “good enough.” While I’m not a player in the NFL, ‘nor am I in the locker room, it sure appeared that making the playoffs was all the Packers wanted out of this season as running the ball like that and defending the run is mostly attitude – given that ability isn’t that big of a discrepancy. The Ravens could do what they wanted all game and had their way with the Packers’ defense.

The positive note is that the Packers’ offense at least showed up ready and willing to fight. Yet again, a non-punting performance resulted in a loss – now back-to-back weeks (and 3^rd on the season) where typically an offense that doesn’t punt still found some way to lose the game. The Red Zone issues are still plaguing this team and unless they figure out that part of their offense, it’ll be tough to make a deep run let alone get out of Wild Card Weekend.

Blueprint Is Out Now?

In each of their losses, especially as of late, Packer opponents kept hammering the ball on the ground knowing the Green Bay defense will wear down. This is from not getting 3 & outs as well as not generating turnovers to shorten opponent drives, thus keeping the defense on the field longer and wearing down in the 2^nd half. Couple this with the offense only being able to score on short, quick drives even when the Packers do put up 7 points on a drive they’re on the field for a short amount of time. They also stall once they get to the red zone which should eat up another 1-2 minutes of possession. Do that over the course of 4-5 drives per game and that could easily be another 10 minutes of possession, a 20-minute swing for the defense…which is huge.

To expand on those issues, the defense is thrust back onto the field quicker than could be and the offense is leaving points on the field (settling for field goals or going for it on 4^th down and not converting), just a bad combination for what is a very talented team – they just lack execution enough throughout the game where the lesser team (Chicago and Baltimore) hangs around and is fresher come the 4^th quarter.

7th Seed Is Now Locked In

With the Vikings defeating Detroit on Christmas Day, the Packers clinched the final playoff spot in the NFC, meaning that all 7 playoff teams are determined, but the seeding was/is still up for grabs. With the loss to Baltimore, that catapulted the Bears to the NFC North Division win, meaning Green Bay is left with a wild card berth, and given their record (9-6-1), they’ll hold the last wild card spot, the 7^th seed. This means they’ll either face Chicago or Philadelphia in the Wild Card round and have to go on the road every game in the postseason. Chicago can win the 2 seed if they win vs. Detroit next Sunday OR if Philadelphia loses to Washington. Should Chicago lose and Philadelphia win, then Green Bay would travel to Lincoln Financial Field for a 7-2 rematch of last year’s Wild Card round with the Eagles.

Both teams are beatable, hell, every team is beatable in the NFL this season as there’s not true juggernaut, but each of those teams possess the makeup to beat Green Bay as they have each won vs. the Packers this season already. Green Bay’s run defense has relinquished 171 rush yards/game over the last 4 games (v Bal, @ Chi, @ Den, and v Chi), and it’s only getting worse. Chicago ranks as the 3^rd rushing offense in the NFL averaging 149.4 yards on the ground while Philadelphia is tied with Green Bay for the 17^th ground attack in the NFL averaging 119.3 yards, but are finding their rhythm with a big, strong offensive line and all-world HB Saquon Barkley finding his groove. Both opponents now look more formidable to Green Bay than they had over the last few weeks.

They issue moving forward now, is that with the Packers locked in the 7^th seed and banged up all over every position, they’ll likely sit key players as to try to get them as healthy as possible for the playoff push. The issue is that if they sit too many guys, the timing and rhythm of the players will be off and as we’ve seen in the past, could set up for a slow start, especially offensively, which won’t help get this team rolling and “hot” to advance through the playoffs.

Looking Ahead

Not to get too far ahead, but while the season feels like it’s already over (since the Surtain interception in Denver that seemed to swing the entire momentum of the season), all of this feels like another quick playoff exit. Since we’re fans we can look ahead to what the 2026 Packers will look like, or at least some of the differences in the form of personnel from this season.

The players likely exiting 1265 Lombardi Ave is a vast list. Quay Walker, Rashan Gary, Rasheed Walker, and Romeo Doubs are all likely not to be a part of the Packers’ plans moving forward. While Quay and Doubs have been solid throughout the season, their production just doesn’t match the money they’ll likely receive on the open market, thus not making it worth bringing them back as the Packers are cash strapped and must be as efficient with their spending as they’ve ever been. Rasheed Walker’s play regressed this season, and given it was a contract year for him, he probably cost himself quite a bit of money, but still will be too rich for the Packer to bring him back – also considering Green Bay used a 1^st round pick on Jordan Morgan last year to assume the Left Tackle of the future role, Walker (Rasheed) is as good as gone.

Doubs has flashed a bit and been fairly consistent during his time in Green Bay, but with the emergence of Christian Watson as the team’s #1 WR, using a 1^st round pick on Matthew Golden, and next year’s return of TE Tucker Kraft, it doesn’t make sense to spend a considerable amount of cap space on a WR that is very replaceable.

The BIG elephant in the room is Rashan Gary. Maybe one of the most-frustrating players in recent Packers history, Gary has shown flashes of greatness, but might as well have been a healthy scratch the last 9 games. Gary has been stout in the run game, until Baltimore exposed him and he hasn’t made a splash play all season. All of his sacks came early in the season when teams were trying to figure out Micah Parsons. Micah’s production kept steady (2^nd-best pass rusher in the NFL behind Myles Garrett), but Gary’s dropped off considerably and has been non-existent since Parsons’ ACL injury. Considering Gary counts the 2^nd-highest cap hit on the Green Bay Packers, he’ll either need to take a huge pay cut to remain with the team or be outright cut as he’s not worth the money and Green Bay needs all the cap space possible to address other areas of concern (mainly DL and CB).

The Risk(s) of “Going All In”

The risk of going “All In” has reared its ugly head in the worst way. While Micah Parsons is an incredible player, a game-changing player, giving up essentially 3 premium players (Kenny Clark and two 1^st round draft picks) and a ton of money has really put the Packers in a predicament. Having Parsons go down with a season-ending injury really has Green Bay in a situation of coming off an 11-6 season and a defeat in the Wild Card round, but now missing their top 3 defensive tackles (Clark in a trade, Slaton in free agency, and Wyatt to injury) and has cash-strapped them in the salary cap department with Parsons’ contract coming into effect next season ($19,237,000 cap hit in 2026).

This is a disaster scenario for the Packers given that they don’t have a 1^st round pick for the next 2 years to address main areas of concern (D Line and Corner), they’ll have to strike gold in the 2^nd and 3^rd rounds at those positions and hope rookies can contribute, which is quite rare.

The offensive line is an issue as well. We already talked about LT Rasheed Walker, but Jordan Morgan has played much better at RT than he has RG or LG over his short tenure, and he’s destined to be the LT of the future. If he can shore up that position, that would be a huge help moving forward. The issues come with the 3 interior line spots. We moved pro-bowl LG Elgton Jenkins to Center this year, clearing the way to sign Aaron Banks to fill the LG void, but neither move has worked out and Jenkins is also likely to not return next year. Sean Rhyan has played OK at center since filling in for the injured Jenkins, but he’s more of a Right Guard and has struggled there this year as well. It’s a mess, it can be cleaned, but a huge mess nonetheless.

General Manager, Brian Gutekunst, and EVP Dir. Of Football Operations, Russ Ball, will have to work their magic this offseason to field a team that can capitalize on their extremely talented core to contend for a Super Bowl next year. Otherwise, it’ll be just contending for a division title (which would be a massive improvement considering Green Bay hasn’t won it since the 2021 season).

Big Picture

With Detroit’s hilarious loss on Christmas Day to the Minnesota Vikings, the Packers clinched a playoff spot. Meaning all 7 of the NFC playoff spots are filled, but the seeding still needs sorting. The Packers can range from the 7^th seed all the way to the 2^nd seed, just as could Chicago. The Eagles are locked in at either the 2^nd or 3^rd seed. Let’s take a look at the scenarios that could affect the Packers:

• 2^nd seed
  • Green Bay would need to win their final 2 games (v Bal & @ Min)
  • Chicago would need to lose their final 2 games (@ San Fran & v Det)
  • Philadelphia would need to lose one of their 2 games (@ Buf & v Was)
• 3^rd seed
  • Green Bay would need to win their final 2 and Chicago to lose their remaining 2 games
  • Philadelphia would need to win their final 2

Both scenarios are plausible considering Green Bay may be favored in both of their remaining games and Chicago is the underdog in their 2 just as the Bills are favored over Philadelphia in their matchup on Sunday. The odds makers are thinking the Packers could get the 2 seed. This would be huge because it would guarantee a minimum of 2 home playoff games in the playoffs (assuming Green Bay would win their wild card round game, which would be against Chicago), with possibly a 3^rd home playoff game should the 1 seed lose in the divisional round.

Can Green Bay Fix their Issues?

The Packers have now lost both games in which they didn’t punt this season. Somehow, in each of those games they scored < 20 points with the offense driving down the field throughout the game. Oddly enough, 20 points (which should be the bare minimum for this Packers team to score in a game) would’ve won each of those games outright, putting Green Bay in a far different scenario. There’s much to blame for these losses, but if you’re not punting, you’re either going for it on 4^th down or settling for field goals. It also means you’re driving the ball down the field and you can’t finish drives in the end zone after reaching the red zone (opponents’ 20-yard line). The Packers rank 14^th in the NFL in Red Zone efficiency and that’s simply not good enough to beat playoff teams. They’re converting at a 58.9% clip – to break it down further, in Green Bay’s wins they’re converting 72.7% and in their losses is just 39.1%. That includes the tie to Dallas where the Packers converted 5 of 6 trips for touchdowns, meaning in their 5 losses the Packers have gone 4 of 17 for 23.5%, less than 1 in 4…this is probably why LaFleur has been more aggressive as of late going for it on 4^th down as this is the biggest indicator for the Packers in determining whether they win or lose a game. On the flip side, Green Bay hasn’t done a good job of keeping their opponents out of the end zone once they’ve crossed the 20, allowing 61.9% of their opponents’ trips in the Red Zone to result in a touchdown, ranking 25^th in the league. None of the teams behind them will see the postseason unless Tampa Bay (ranking 31^st) squeaks by Carolina.

Did You Call for Backup?

The issue now becomes, probably the biggest story heading into this game – which, if either, starting QB will start? Jordan Love exited the Bears game with a concussion, and based on the statistics (not official), players that have been concussed in the NFL this season only 25-33% of them have been cleared to play the following week. As for Baltimore, superstar Lamar Jackson took a knee to the back in last week’s game, forcing him out and his status for Week 17 at Green Bay is in jeopardy. With such a big game on primetime with playoff implications-a-plenty, the nation may see a match up between back up QBs. While that typically doesn’t bode well, both Baltimore’s and Green Bay’s #2’s are plenty capable with a decent amount of experience.

Tyler Huntley – in his 6 seasons as an NFL quarterback, Huntley is 343/522 (65.7%), 3,105 yards, 12 TD, 10 INTs, with a passer rating of 81.3. The Ravens have gone 4-6 in his 10 starts as a Raven and one of those losses came at the hands of Green Bay in 2021 (Aaron Rodgers’ 4^th MVP season), going blow for blow with a solid Packers team, with Green Bay prevailing 31-30 on 12/19/2021 – a game that might’ve been Huntley’s best of his career. He scored a touchdown with 0:42 left in the 4^th quarter while trailing 24-31. Baltimore decided to go for 2 to try to win the game instead of forcing overtime, but failed. The reserve QB tore up then Packers Defensive Coordinator, Joe Barry, going 28/40, 215 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, a rating of 99.5 and ran in an additional 2 touchdowns. He’s plenty capable.

Concerning Green Bay’s quarterback situation, backup Malik Willis has performed nothing short of great since arriving via a trade before the start of the 2024 regular season. Since joining the Packers, Willis has played in 10 games, having played meaningful snaps in 7 of them. With Green Bay, he’s logged 52/68 (76.5%), for 684 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs, for a rating of 132.2. As a starter with Green Bay, Willis is 2-0…in those 7 “meaningful” games, the Packers are 4-3, with two of those games coming against the Bears (last week and Week 18 of the 2024 season). The other loss was in Week 1 against the eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles in Sao Paolo, Brazil. Even then, he only took 1 snap after Love exited with a knee injury. The odd/frustrating thing about Willis is with the Head Coach and play-caller, Matt LaFleur. His schemes and play calls/designs are much different and extremely effective with Willis under center. Reminiscent of 2019 when LaFleur first arrived. The offense is run-heavy, but effective and Willis is proficient of making almost any throw while having receivers streak open due to the defense guarding run first.

Matchup Matrix

Enter the Baltimore Ravens – a team that began the season, like the Packers, with Super Bowl aspirations, but now find themselves fighting for their playoff lives. Baltimore must win their final 2 games (@ Green Bay & @ Pittsburgh) as well as get help from Cleveland on Sunday by them beating Pittsburgh. Their kryptonite is what they once were known for as their strength; their defense. Baltimore ranks in the middle or back of the league in all the categories. They’re still talented across their entire defense and have a great rushing attack, led by all-world running back, Derrick Henry, but they’re not as effective on offense as they were a season ago. The Ravens still average almost 150 yards per game on the ground, which tires out opposing defenses, but they rank 27^th in time of possession. They also struggle in the pass game on both sides of the ball, which is their biggest weakness. Regardless of who plays QB for Green Bay, LaFleur should open it up and take some shots to try to score from outside the Red Zone considering that’s the Packers’ bugaboo – ranking 25^th and the Ravens boast the 6^th-best Red Zone defense in the NFL. Not a good matchup for the Packers, especially considering recent weeks and the lack of execution in that department.

The other thing is that Baltimore has gotten blown out 4 times this year and not just to playoff teams, meaning they’re inconsistent in a far more frustrating manner than what Packer fans have watched over the last couple of decades.

Who Wins?

If Lamar Jackson ends up playing, Green Bay will almost certainly be the underdog (assuming Love isn’t cleared to play and Willis is the starter), even if Green Bay has the better team the Ravens are in 100% desperation mode and the Packers “can afford” a loss by resting some players – in the sense for they’ve already clinched a playoff spot. Jackson’s speed is an X-factor and will account for some crucial plays. If Green Bay can possess the ball like last week (and not commit any turnovers), the Packers “should” come out victorious just as they should against any team they play and there’s plenty of reason to believe they can accomplish that task.

Season: 9-6
Overall: 116-75

There were plenty of mistakes, but let’s take a look at the big culprits, in no particular order.

1. Special Teams – the Cost is now up to 3 Wins

The Packers special teams unit has now cost this team 3 wins, and in each of those games the Packers held a double-digit lead. In Week 3 @ Cleveland, it was a 10-0 lead late in the game that saw a blocked Field Goal which likely would’ve won the game. In Week 4 @ Dallas, it was a blocked extra point which was a 3-point swing in its own right – Green Bay would’ve been up 14-0 with all the momentum, instead it was 13-2 and Dallas felt like they had life. This past Saturday night in Week 16 @ Chicago it was a muffed onside kick that otherwise would’ve won the game. Yes, the Bears had 2 timeouts and 1:50+ left on the clock, but Green Bay had 9 total drives and the only drives in which they didn’t gain a 1^st down (or multiple) was the last one before the half and the end of regulation, which were kneel downs…

There’s no reason to think that this will be corrected this season as it’s the same coordinator (Rich Bisaccia) and the same personnel, it’s been this way since his arrival and it hasn’t improved. Those 3 wins would put Green Bay at 12-3 atop the NFC Playoff Race in in control for the 1-seed and a BYE, but alas, here we are.

2. The Defense was Great, Until it Wasn’t

The defense was on one – in the 1^st half they allowed only 103 yards on just 20 plays. Hell, before the onside kick fiasco Hafley’s crew relinquished a total of 283 yards and 9 points in 58:01. That’s plenty good enough to win every game, that is unless you’re the Green Bay Packers in a crucial game. Once the momentum flipped, the defense surrendered 13 points and 117 yards in the next 2 drives – no megusta. They were able to make Williams uncomfortable enough and force a bunch of throw aways, keeping them out of field goal range for plenty of the game.

While the Packers didn’t get any sacks or turnovers, they did their job – the one sack they did get was a 15-yard facemask penalty which led to 3 points for Chicago. Couple that with yet another dropped INT from McKinney, which led to an additional field goal, that’s 6 free points all on mental errors…these seem to keep happening, and it’s infuriating since they played well for 97% of the game…not good enough.

Heading into the game, if Green Bay didn’t lose the turnover battle by 2+, they win, and that was the case. While Chicago officially only took the ball away once (Jacobs’ fumble inside the 5 when GB was marching for a TD) the onside kick acts like a turnover, so there you go. Lost the turnover battle by 2+ and lost the game when they dominated in every other category. This just can’t happen if you plan on doing anything in January.

3. Offense: So Close to Greatness

Green Bay’s offense didn’t punt all game, and marched down the field on every drive (aside from the 2 where they knelt to end the half/regulation). The issue being that Red Zone efficiency, or lack thereof; 0 for 5.

1. Green Bay drove right down the field, with 30 yards of help by Chicago on personal fouls, but stalled by going for it on 4^th & 1 from the Chi 7. Taking the 3 there was the way to go. It puts points on the board and sets the tone while ensuring you didn’t waste a drive. I like the aggression, but on the first drive of the game after you’ve said you have confidence in your defense, take the points.
2. On Green Bay’s 2^nd drive, they marched down to the Chi 8, but stalled once again, this time settling for a field goal and getting the lead.
3. The 3^rd drive is when the Packers lost Jordan Love to a concussion, but Malik Willis filled in admirably. Driving the team down to the red zone once again, but stalling on the Chi 4 and having to settle for yet another field goal. Had Green Bay kicked one on the first drive, they would’ve been up 9-0, a two-score margin and any time you can increase your lead to a full additional possession, you take it.
4. After Chicago opened the 2^nd half with their first scoring drive of the game for them, Willis marched right down the field yet again, and on 1^st & Goal from the Chi 4, Josh Jacobs fumbled taking points off the board.
5. The last failed red zone attempt came with 5:03 left in the game. Green Bay drove down the field again, stalling at the Chi 10. This one got blame from the fans on the play-calling, but I don’t mind it one bit. You have your backup QB in and the last thing you want is to put the ball in harm’s way and come away with nothing. Having led by 7, and your defense playing extraordinarily well, LaFleur made the right choice in shaving time off the clock and kicking the FG to put yourself up two scores. Which essentially would’ve iced the game, you know, in normal circumstances…

Speaking of Malik Willis, he played great. Much of that due to LaFleur’s scheme and play-calling once he entered for Love with 8:21 left in the 2^nd quarter, leading 3-0. Willis drove right down the field when he took over and got a score. He finished the game with 9-11 passing (81.8%), 121 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, and a passer rating of 142.8. He also added 44 yards on 10 carries – very efficient/effective. With Malik in the game, Green Bay’s offense amassed 241 yards across 48 plays, scoring 13 points. There’s no reason to think they couldn’t have gained 2 first downs after recovering the onside kick…

Now What?

As stated previously, the winner of this game assumes the 2^nd seed playoff spot in the NFC and the loser the 7^th-seed (last playoff spot). The good news is that Detroit lost to Pittsburgh, which puts them on life support to make the playoffs and now Green Bay only having to win 1 of their two remaining games to clinch a playoff berth. With the Lions loss, Chicago clinched a playoff spot, but the division is still up for grabs.

If Chicago loses @ San Francisco then at home to Detroit AND Green Bay wins v. Baltimore and @ Minnesota, the Packers will clinch the NFC North Division Title, and have either the 2 or 3 seed in the NFC. The potential issue is assuming Chicago loses next week to San Francisco and Green Bay beats Baltimore, Detroit will then be eliminated from playoff contention and would be resigned to playing spoiler – a role they played at the end of 2022 when they came into Lambeau Field and spoiled Aaron Rodgers’ and Randall Cobb’s final Packer appearances…

What’s At Stake?

Since Seattle won on Thursday Night Football, they take over the 1-seed in the NFC Playoff Picture and control their own destiny for their positioning. Therefor, even if San Francisco beats Indianapolis on Monday Night Football, which would put their record at 11-4, they’re not leading NFC West and will be the 2^nd Wild Card team. Meaning, just like 2 weeks ago, the winner of the Packers/Bears game will assume the 2-seed and the loser will become the 7^th (last) seed. Again, a crucial game in every manner.

This is also a potential playoff-clinching game for both teams. The winner could lock up a playoff spot if Pittsburgh beats Detroit on Sunday. There’s still a chance for Aaron Rodgers to crush Bear fans’ hearts once again. The loser of the Packers/Bears game will still control their own destiny to lock up a playoff berth, but likely would have to win their final 2 games to do so.

Matchup Matrix

Not much has changed in terms of team rankings (and positions as well as the standings) between these 2 teams from their meeting two weeks ago. Green Bay’s offense is still 13^th in yards and 10^th in scoring whereas Chicago’s defense ranks 24^th and 21^st, respectively. Advantage Green Bay – then again if Zach Tom misses this game that likely changes the Packers’ offense’s effectiveness, but still their unit over the last 5 games has been very efficient, scoring on 64.9% of their drives (24 of 37), with the main focal point being Red Zone efficiency. Green Bay has converted 73.3% of their red zone trips to touchdowns, which is very impressive. If the Packers continue that pace they will won’t lose. The issue in Denver (other than injuries) was settling for field goals instead of trips to the end zone. For example, Green Bay had 4 red zone opportunities only converting one of those to a touchdown. Had they scored at their ¾ pace, that’s an additional 8 points on the board, and considering they lost by 8…

On the flip side of the ball it’s back to strength vs. strength – Green Bay’s Defense vs. Chicago’s Offense. The Packers rank 6^th in total defense and 8^th in scoring defense while the Bears rank 5^th & 9^th, respectively. Green Bay is coming off their 2^nd-worst defensive performance (in terms of points allowed) which doesn’t mean much this season in the NFL since it’s such a week-to-week league, more than it’s every been in recent memory.

As we know, and covered earlier, Defensive Coordinator, Jeff Hafley, will have to revert to his 2024 scheme (and still more on this later) to keep this defense playing at a high level. Bears Head Coach, Ben Johnson, seemed to take the loss 2 weeks ago to Green Bay personally and may come out with a bunch of trick plays – similar to his time in Detroit. That could help Chicago get more explosive plays as they plan to have more time for plays to develop with the absence of Micah Parsons, but it will also give Green Bay more opportunities for takeaways and sacks.

As usual, turnovers will likely dictate the outcome, just as it did in Week 14 at Lambeau Field. I believe Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love will continue to be aggressive and should be able to move the ball and put up points against this Bears defense.

How Can Green Bay Win?

It seems like Christian Watson is going to play and Evan Williams won’t. Everyone else will likely be a game-time decision and assuming RT Zach Tom is OUT and HB Josh Jacobs is IN (as long as 1 of them plays) that could severely help Green Bay’s offense in every aspect. If Love can have time to throw he should be able to pick apart this defense just like he did in their first matchup this season, he just can’t give them a freebie. The forecast calls for 34° and clear skies, which should favor Green Bay by being able to set up the run via the pass – much like they’ve been doing over the last 5 games. Its’ not out of the question to think Green Bay should hang 30+ tonight if they don’t turn it over, in fact, it should be expected.

In regards to the defense, there’s an argument to be made that the Packers might be “better” without Micah Parsons. The argument is Hafley will use more disguises, different types of play call, and coverages which will confuse offenses at a higher rate vs. them having to worry about just Micah Parsons, they’re going to have to account for all 11 on defense, every snap. On Friday’s episode of “Locked on Packers,” host Peter Bukowski had on Cody Alexander, who made this very point. Hafley can still use the same defense as he has with Micah, instead of #1 it’ll be a multitude of other players filling that role, whether it’s Quay Walker rushing from the edge or Edgerrin Cooper blitzing inside the A gap(s) (both gaps between the Center and either Guard), or possibly isolating Rashan Gary and overloading the other side of the line to force a 1-on-1 with Gary and confusing the overloaded side – knowing pressure won’t be as quick or frequent as it was with Micah, but could be just as effective. There’s also the game-planning component from Chicago’s perspective that may be different. Since Caleb Williams excels at throwing when he bootlegs/scrambles out of the pocket, but struggles when in the pocket, it appeared that Ben Johnson designed plays for Caleb to escape the pocket knowing Parsons was going to get pressure and to have to chase him all over the field…there are 3 reasons this was the case:

1. Increase Caleb’s time to throw and for the routes to develop
2. Increase his accuracy (as h’s terribly inaccurate when in the pocket)
3. Tire out Parsons due to all of the chasing

I’m not sure if Green Bay will do this, but what makes sense to me is to have Gary, LVN, and Enagbare rush from a contain standpoint and try to generate pressure up the middle so Caleb can’t scramble out and is forced to throw off rhythm and make accurate passes from a location he’s not comfortable. The Packers may mix in a QB spy (1 designated player that does NOT rush the passer, but remain in the box and follow Caleb’s movements) to keep him behind the line of scrimmage and in the pocket, where he’s most uncomfortable. This will likely lead Caleb to get impatient and force a few balls or just flat out miss his targets – those must be intercepted.

If Green Bay can protect Love, catch the ball, and win the turnover battle, they should win – and they may win BIG. Then again, if they do these things against anyone the result should be the same.

Comparing the Packers ’24 Defense to ’25

If you’ve followed the reporting or local sports talk, you know the topic has been brought up: Hafley spent over 7 months preparing to improve upon his 2024 defense without Micah Parsons (Green Bay lost to Philadelphia in the Wild Card Round on 1/12/2025 and acquired Micah Parsons on 8/28/2025). Expanding on my previous “argument,” was the Packers defense better without Micah Parsons?

Since the numbers are relative to each year the rankings are the best to look at considering the league changes annually, but the rankings are relative. Green Bay is much-improved vs. the pass this year and that’s primarily due to the Parsons effect – offenses are much quicker to throw the ball to not take a sack because of the quick pressure, meaning they can’t throw it down field. In 2024, opponents attempted more down field throws to stretch the defense, but that resulted in a boatload of turnovers. The other thing to notice is while their ranking and number total is almost identical, Green Bay’s rush defense was great last year because they had 3 Defensive Tackles (Kenny Clark, TJ Slaton, and Devonte Wyatt) that are now no longer on the active roster. The question now becomes; Can Green Bay stop the run?

The Packers came out of the gate hot in defending the run. The surprising stat is that Green Bay does better against the run in games Wyatt has missed (or didn’t finish) averaging 98.6 yards allowed vs. games he’s played (101.6 yards allowed). Also, they’re 6-3 in games he played and 3-1-1 in games he’s missed, which is another surprising stat – I wonder if the reason is that offenses “think” they have the advantage and Hafley outcoaches the OC…This gives reason to believe Green Bay can stop the run without Wyatt, but couple that with missing Parsons…we’ll just have to wait and see, but there’s reason for hope.

The key stat between last year and this year’s defense (aside from the takeaways) is the 3^rd down conversion % and rank. While it doesn’t “feel” like they were better last year, they simply were. It’s safe to say that if Green Bay gets back to taking the ball away their D may not only not miss a beat, but they could be better. If they do, they could accomplish amazing things – AND Jeff Hafley will be gone.

Who Wins?

Neither team will have sympathy for the other – Chicago is going to be without 2 of their top pass catchers, WR Rome Odunze and WR Luther Burden III. Meaning they’ll likely rely on the ground game and play action involving rookie TE Colston Loveland and DJ Moore in the pass game. This game will come down to which OL performs better – considering that’s been my main concern for the Packers the entire season AND they might be missing Zach Tom, it could spell disaster.

Hope I’m wrong, obviously, but this is a coin flip game…

Season: 8-6
Overall: 115-75

Moving On Without Micah

The narrative heading into the season, prior to the Packers trading for Micah Parsons, was Green Bay was going to contend for a Super Bowl title. The issue now is that’s the same scenario now, but that initial narrative included the likes of Defensive Tackles Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt – they’re both gone. With the current state of the defense, it will be on Defensive Coordinator, Jeff Hafley, to scheme pass rush in a different manner as well as devising a different type of coverage considering the pass rush will likely include more blitzing, leaving the secondary with less personnel and more vulnerable to explosive plays (rushing play that gains 10+ yards – passing play that gains 20+ yards).

Keep in mind, last year under then first year DC, Hafley, Green Bay’s defense ranked 6^th in yards allowed (total defense) and 6^th in points allowed (scoring defense). They were able to be so effective in 2024 due to taking the ball away 31 times (4^th in the NFL) and they’ll absolutely need to increase the takeaways if they want to continue on the path to hoisting the Lombardi trophy with their best player missing the remainder of the season.

Much of the attention to fill the void will fall on Edge Rusher Rashan Gary, as it should considering he’s the 2^nd highest cap hit on the Packers this season ($25,771,138 in 2025) he needs to step up his production. He’s been extremely good in the run game and contain, however his pass rush has fallen off considerably since storming out the gates with 7 ½ sacks to begin the season as he hasn’t logged a sack since he recorded 2 in the Pittsburgh game (week 8). The other player that will be looked at under a bigger microscope than he has been is another former 1^st round pick, Lukas Van Ness. LVN (as he’s called) has missed considerable time with a foot injury and his production, much like Gary, has been limited in the pass rush department, but has been a stalwart against the run. General Manager, Brian Gutekunst, used premium draft picks on these guys to do all the above – they now have an incredible opportunity to step up and show Packer Nation they’re ready for the hype.

Referring to the initial plan heading into the season before Parsons joined the team, there’s a player that was expected to take a huge jump after showing a promising rookie season, Edgerrin Cooper. “Coop” was making huge leaps towards the end of last year and flashing his athletic ability all over the field – both in coverage and pass rush (as well as shooting gaps in the run game). Pete Dougherty had a great article in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel stating how the Packers can revert to that initial plan to utilize their uber-talented Inside Linebacker to help fill the void left by the 2^nd best pass rusher in the NFL.

Back to the 7-Seed

With Chicago beating Cleveland and Green Bay losing to Denver, the Bears move back in front of the Packers for 1^st in the NFC North and takeover as the 2^nd seed in the NFC, while San Francisco winning allowed them to hold the 6^th seed, thus dropping Green Bay to the last available playoff spot with Detroit trailing by 1 ½ games. The margin for error is slim to none, making these final 3 games of the regular season as close to “must win” as possible without truly being “must win.” While there is still a path to winning the division should the Packers lose on Saturday night to Chicago, they’d need to win their final two games against Baltimore and Minnesota while Chicago would need to lose to San Francisco and Detroit – both very possible and almost expected scenarios…however, for the sake of our mental and heart health, beating Chicago would be very therapeutic. That, along with silencing their insufferable fans would go a long way for our stress levels moving forward.

Recapping the Game

Prior to the injuries to WR Christian Watson and RT Zach Tom, the Packers were absolutely rolling on offense. Green Bay scored on its first 5 drives of the game, against (arguably) the NFL’s best defense at their home. While complaining about the refs is Loser Talk, on GB’s first drive of the game (after the Micah Parsons forced fumble) the refs short-spotted both Jacobs’ 2^nd down run resulting in an eventual 4^th down conversion and then on the next set of downs, Jayden Reed appeared to gain the 1^st down on a 2^nd & 14, but was marked short and the next play Jacobs was blown up in the backfield on a pitch play (which saw now 3^rd string TE Josh Whyle leave the game from that hit as well). That forced Green Bay to settle for a Field Goal when the offense was humming. While the Packers lost by more than 4, that four-point swing, especially in a tone-setting 1^st drive could’ve changed the direction/path of the game from thereon out. The next Packers drive was halted by one of 4 Rasheed Walker penalties after a 1^st & 10 from the Denver 12-yard line saw Love complete a 7-yard pass to Romeo Doubs to the Denver 5 already leading 3-0, which seemed like an inevitable touchdown. If you’re keeping track, that’s 8 points off the board on just the first two drives of the game. I understand any team can do this for any game, but these are the mistakes (penalties = controllable; refs being awful = out of your control) that can’t happen with Micah Parsons now being out that the Packers must avoid if they want to win against premium teams, especially on the road.

This play ended up being, possibly, the biggest momentum shifting play of the season – and it was the wrong direction. With Green Bay leading 23-14 (having scored 3 right before half to take a 16-14 halftime lead, then coming out in the 2^nd half and ripping off a 40-yard TD run to increase the lead to a two-score game), Matt LaFleur tried another shot play to go for the kill and it was a well thrown ball, especially seeing Love was blasted as he let it go. Watson was in man coverage against the best corner in football, and had a step on him. Had Love been able to step into the throw and lead Watson a step more, that easily could’ve been a touchdown and a fatal blow to the Broncos. The Packers might’ve gone for 2 had they scored to increase their lead to 17 (a three-score game) which given the Packers defense, is almost insurmountable. However, Love was hit as he threw and the ball still hit Watson in stride and Patrick Surtain II made an incredible play to intercept the pass. Essentially a 13 to 15-point swing in that play alone. If you’re still following along, the first two drives the refs and Walker cost the Packers a combined 8 points, and that play cost the Packers at least 6, that’s 14 points right there…

After that play, Watson was hurt as well as Zach Tom and the offense went dormant. Green Bay ran 28 plays following that drive, gaining only 55 yards and scoring just 3 more points the rest of the game. The main issue wasn’t Love or LaFleur (although both needed to find a way to overcome the injuries to Tom and Watson), but as soon as Tom exited, the best pass rush in the NFL made its presence felt and essentially iced the game. The argument could be made that Zach Tom is the 2^nd or 3^rd most important Packer on the roster considering (to borrow a baseball term) WAR (wins above replacement) has got to be one of the highest in the NFL since whomever replaces him is well below average. With all, Green Bay still found itself down just one score (8 points) and had 3 opportunities to go down and tie the game. Those drives were brutal:

• Interception: 2 plays, 2 yards, 0:56
• Downs: 7 plays, 1 yard, 2:31
• Downs: 4 plays; -5 yards, 0:23

The interception was a poor throw by Love, but it still hit Wicks in both hands and should’ve been caught – no, it must be caught in that scenario as it’s a step-up situation and no one did.

The Defense Got Gassed in the 2nd Half, Again (or did it?)

Denver Head Coach, Sean Payton, in his postgame press conference said he told his team to keep hammering away, they’re gassed, the Broncos did end up scoring 20 second half points. However, did the Packers defense really give it up that easily? There was a 2^nd & 7 that Denver hit for 22 yards that saw the most egregious missed holding call I’ve seen in years (of course it was on Parsons) which would’ve set up a 2^nd & 17, likely resulting in a punt, wiping off 7 points for Denver (keeping track, that’s 8 + 6 + 7, see where I’m going?)

This all happened, and the Packers still defense still showed up, but didn’t make the plays necessary to overcome. Denver was able to get their hands on 2 Love passes, catching both. Green Bay got their hands on 5 Nix passes, 3 of them were easy interceptions, caught ZERO. That cannot happen in must-win games moving forward, it just can’t.

Great Test for Both Teams

Green Bay has played 7 games this season against teams that currently have a win % of .500 or better. They’re 4-2-1 in such games which is very respectable. Denver has played 5 teams that currently sit with a .500+ win % and have gone 3-2, not bad. A winning record against such tough competition is a testament to how good these teams are – and it doesn’t stop there. Both Green Bay and Denver are about as closely matched as any two strong teams in the NFL right now and is why they’re considered top 2 in their respective conferences. This is the best matchup of the NFL this season thus far, but not the most important (that comes next week for Green Bay).

The Packers opened as 1 ½ point favorites and the spread currently sits at GB -2 ½ as of Saturday. ESPN Matchup Predictor states Green Bay has a 53% chance to win, making this game essentially a coin flip.

Where Does Each Team Stand(ings)?

Both of these teams enter this game fighting for the 1-seed in their respective conferences with Denver controlling their destiny (if they win out they maintain the 1-seed). Denver has a very tough schedule remaining having to face:

• Week 15: 9-3-1 Green Bay
• Week 16: 9-4 Jacksonville
• Week 17: 6-7 Kansas City
• Week 18: 9-4 Los Angeles Chargers

Considering Kanas City is the “worst” team they’re going to face, we all know how good they can be and should they win their next couple of games they still could be mathematically alive for a postseason berth, meaning they’ll be desperate. Albeit a tough road regardless.

As for Green Bay, the Packers are currently leading the NFC North (likely playing for the division title next week in Chicago if the Packers pull it out) and the 2-seed in the NFC playoff picture. The Packers have:

• Week 15: 11-2 Denver
• Week 16: 9-4 Chicago
• Week 17: 6-7 Baltimore
• Week 18: 5-8 Minnesota

Denver and Chicago go without saying, but Baltimore has immense talent and was picked as one of the top teams in the AFC this year (as they should’ve been). Minnesota usually shows up against Green Bay and plays well, so there are no auto-wins left on the schedule for Green Bay, however will likely be favored in each remaining game.

Matchup Matrix

This is a matchup of 2 elite defenses which typically comes down to which QB makes the bigger play(s). Each offense is about middle-of-the-road in terms of rankings, but both are dangerous. Green Bay has been rolling on offense as of late, scoring on 18 of their 36 drives during their 4-game winning streak with the last possessions of the Detroit and Minnesota games seeing their offense hold the ball and run the clock out without getting the ball back just to kneel it out – that’s a great clip, 50%.

The similarities of these 2 teams doesn’t stop just on offense or defense, but their turnover situation is right on par. Neither of these defenses generate many turnovers, but their offenses don’t give it away either. This makes it all the more paramount for neither offense to turn it over as allowing the defense to get off the field sooner than otherwise could spell doom as well as giving the other team an additional possession. With the defensive situation and in addition to turnovers, 3^rd & 4^th down efficiency may be the deciding factor in this game. Regardless, this game will almost absolutely be close throughout and come down to the late 4^th quarter because each of these defenses keep their teams in games. A final thought on this, while the altitude and wind can mess with the kicking game, it’s important to remember that Packers Kicker, Brandon McManus, kicked for the Broncos from 2014-2022, having won Super Bowl 50 (2015 season) as the Broncos Kicker. The field, conditions, altitude, everything, shouldn’t be an issue for him…shouldn’t.

How Can Denver Win?

Denver has the best offensive line in the NFL as well as the best overall pass rush. How Green Bay fares against both (win the line of scrimmage) likely determines this game. If the Broncos can play keep away (much like Carolina did in Lambeau 6 weeks back) that will keep their pass rush fresh and wear out the Packers defensive front – especially in the altitude. Also, Denver likely must win the turnover battle to gain an additional possession as their offense seemingly goes dark for long stretches of time. If you watch the NFL regularly, you may remember the epic comeback against the Giants when Denver was losing 19-0 in the 4^th quarter and staged a 33-point 4^th quarter to win 33-32, but let’s not forget they were getting shut out through 3 quarters, at home, to the New York Giants. Denver also has won games with point totals of 18, 10, and 22 since then…even if the opposing defenses were good, great teams find ways to win, but great offenses find ways to score 20 – especially at home. If Sean Payton’s offense is stagnant to begin, they may try to play keep away in order to not get in a shootout with the higher-flying offense of Green Bay.

How Can Green Bay Win?

As mentioned before, Green Bay must continue to take care of the football while trying to put up points against a great defense. If this game does become keep away, the good news is while Denver ranks 2^nd in the NFL against the run, the Packers run game is “better” than Denver’s, but the Packers have struggled as of late at stopping the run…hence winning the line of scrimmage. Even if Denver is stout vs. the run, Green Bay will need to keep them honest by keeping a good balance to hold off their pass rush (Denver leads the NFL with 55 sacks) and their linebackers and d-backs from sitting in coverage. The Broncos also lead the league in tight-window-coverage (according to NextGen Stats) – couple that with their pass rush there may not be as many shot plays (deep balls) as we’ve seen of late, but all the more imperative that Reed and (hopefully) Golden can create space in the intermediate territory of the field. All in all, holding onto the football, keeping a good run/pass balance, and getting the defense off the field should be plenty for Green Bay to pull this one out.

Prediction Time

Green Bay is one of the hottest teams in the NFL – they’re also finally playing with a bit more consistency and are just that good. Denver is riding a 10-game winning streak and have eeked out a bunch of close games in that stretch. When teams are this close in every category (and overall makeup) you tend to look at the Head Coach and QB combo – the combo of LaFleur + Love, I believe is > Payton + Nix.

Season: 8-5
Overall: 115-74

Love is Turning it on Again

Outside of the interception, which was an awful pass/decision, Jordan was dialed in on every throw. Love was 17/25 (68%) for 234 yards, 3 TDs and the 1 interception for a passer rating of 120.7. He was in complete control of the game, and even had a nice 34-yarder on the 2^nd drive of the game that was overturned somehow. Had that play stood, Green Bay might’ve boat-raced the Bears.

The Packer offense was very efficient all game, averaging 6.5 yards/play and an astounding 8.5 yards per pass. Keeping with the offensive efficiency, Green Bay scored 3 of their 4 touchdowns on 3^rd down with the 4^th coming on 2^nd down with only 0:38 left in the first half.

All 3 of Love’s TD passes were a thing of beauty. He also had a few gaining first downs in key situations on perfect passes. It was close to a perfect game from the offense and the Packers will need to continue this efficiency if they plan to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in early February.

Defense Did Just Enough

Green Bay’s defense held Chicago to just 3 first half points – with the most crucial series coming off the opening drive interception. Holding Chicago to 3 points there would’ve been a success, nonetheless forcing a punt flipped the momentum directly back to Green Bay’s sideline. The Bears amassed just 71 total yards and 5 first downs in that first half. Caleb Williams began the game slowly and finished the 1^st half just 6/14 for 32 yards – he made some plays in the 2^nd half to pull it close, but ultimately blew the game on the 4^th & 1 play at the end of the game.

With the game on the line, Green Bay came up with their biggest defensive stand of the season. With Chicago facing 3^rd & 1 from the Packers’ 14-yard line, Edge Rusher Kingsley Enagbare stuffed the popular Chicago rookie, Kyle Monangai, for no gain setting up the aforementioned 4^th down.

All in all, the Packers allowed 315 total yards and 21 points to an offense that came into the game averaging 374 yards and 26 points per game. Green Bay did their job in every facet: offense; defense; special teams. The main mission accomplished was only giving the Bears 1 turnover and they were blanked on that possession.

Reed’s Return

Jayden Reed returned from IR this week and made a solid statement. He finished with 6 total touches for 53 yards, averaging 8.8 yards/touch. Two of those touches resulted in 1^st downs with one of those coming on a key 3^rd & 1. Reed really opens up the middle of the field for Love to attack and everyone else benefits.

Christian Watson is Developing into a True WR1

Since returning from his torn ACL – Christian Watson has played 7 games and has accumulated 25 receptions for 452 yards and 5 TDs. He’s also logged 20 first downs and just by using your eyes, the offense is far more efficient/dangerous with him on the field. The Packers are 5-2 in those seven games and had they used him properly (like they have the last 2 weeks v. Detroit and Chicago) the argument could be made that Green Bay could be sitting here with an 11-1-1 record – considering they scored a combined 20 points in those 2 games it’s not far-fetched to think the Packers should’ve won both of those games.

Watson is beginning to show that he’s a game-changer considering he now has back-to-back games with 40+ yard touchdown receptions, and a QB willing to trust him to make those plays…funny how that all coincides with him eliminating his drops.

What Now?

With that win, Green Bay took over top spot in the NFC North and the 2-seed in the NFC playoff standings. Chicago dropped down to the last playoff seed (7^th) and should the playoffs begin today the Bears would travel to Lambeau Field for a Wild Card matchup. While each team has an AFC opponent this upcoming week (Chicago hosts Cleveland while Green Bay travels to Denver to face the Broncos), these two teams will matchup again to essentially determine who will the NFC North. Should Chicago drop their game to the Browns, it’s not too desperate to think they’re in “must-win” games the rest of the way based on the playoff picture.