For those of you looking for something other than the Packers…here you go!  The Milwaukee Bucks have had the two most exciting offseasons from what I can remember.  If you know me, you likely know my expectations are judging teams based on rings (championships).  I’m here to set the record straight regarding expectations for this team.  There are quite a few factors coming into the season: Greg Monroe acquisition; the return of Jabari Parker; progression of Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Acquiring Greg Monroe was absolutely huge.  Since Larry Sanders decided to become a huge turd, I’ve thought Monroe was a perfect match for the Bucks.  The only problem was getting him here.  Monroe gave credit to Wes Edens (one of the 2 principal owners) for persuading him to sign in Milwaukee over New York.  Unheard of until it actually happened.  Monroe signed a 2-year deal with a third year option, makes it friendly for both sides.  If Monroe plays above the contract, he will be set up to get absolutely PAID.  The new TV contract money is on its way, hence why LeBron keeps taking 1 year deals (more on that during the NBA season).

Jabari Parker – the whole idea of “Winning Takes Balls,” i.e. lottery balls.  From all accounts, Parker has looked absolutely amazing in his rehab.  It’s likely that Jason Kidd will ease Jabari into the starting rotation, eventually getting up to 17-20 minutes/game.  For now, look for a ton of depth to cover the absence of Jabari playing 30+ minutes…

The Greek Freak!!!  Possibly the highest ceiling in the entire league.  He’s apparently grown, again.  Giannis doesn’t want to be known as a 7 footer, but when he stands next to John Henson (6’11”) Giannis was taller.  All of this according to Gary Woelful (Racine Journal Times) – one of my favorite basketball beat writers – he’s also said Giannis has added roughly 15lbs.  Antetokounmpo’s frame could handle quite a bit more.  Giannis is my favorite thing about this Bucks franchise, just because of the potential and the time we as fans can give to watch him grow.

With all of these factors, one might think the Bucks should increase their win total by 5-10, and if they went 41-41 last year that could potentially put the Bucks around 50 wins!  Although that’s very possible, I had to look back to last season and realize the Bucks went 13-22 (including postseason) after trading Brandon Knight.  Prior to trading Knight the Bucks were humming along, many people hated the trade.  I for one loved it, and still do.  If MCW (Michael Carter-Williams) can develop a threat of a jumper, this Bucks team should be an absolute nightmare to play in years to come.  For the 2015/2016 season I’m thinking 41-46 wins…Let’s go with 46-36, the same record as the Fear the Deer team about 5 years ago.  I know my audience (which isn’t many to start with) may not care about the Milwaukee Bucks, but I’ve loved them since I can remember and am so pumped to finally have direction, the proper direction, for this franchise.  I can only hope the Brewers follow suit.  The Brewers decided to become the Minnesota Vikings of MLB but that’s a whole different topic.

So to recap…Bucks 46-36 with the 4 seed in the Eastern Conference and an Eastern Conf. Finals appearance v Cleveland.  Get excited!!!

Whelp, last time I ask for something.  The injuries still hit and it was a big one (Ty Montgomery).  A win is a win, but the defense must play better…the offense does too.  Don’t get me wrong, I love winning ugly but the Packers can’t give up that type of yardage and expect to win a Super Bowl.  I’m so glad I was wrong about the play of BJ Raji – I didn’t think he’d be anywhere near where he has played this year.  His production was very apparent this past week v. San Diego.  The Packers still made them one-dimensional but the problem was the Packers couldn’t stop the pass.  There was little-to-no pass rush especially a consistent pass rush like we’ve seen in previous weeks.  Give credit to Philip Rivers, but the fact he said he could decipher every look the Packers gave is quite concerning.

Moving to the offense.  It seems like the Packers are most effective opening the game with their scripted plays.  Rodgers and Co. build a lead then the defense holds on and/or closes the game out.  Eddie Lacy seems fat, slow, and indecisive.  Thankfully Starks is a savvy veteran and knows the offense.  However, one can’t assume Starks will be healthy all year based on his track record – so it’s imperative for Lacy to get back into shape which should help his healing process as well.  Listening to Josh Sitton’s interview on Tuesday, he mentioned how they need to continue to run the ball to keep rhythm.  I couldn’t agree more.  Let me stress again, this game feels like a Loss but it wasn’t.  6-0 doesn’t feel as good as it should and I like that, means there’s plenty of room for improvement.

Now that the offense is officially in a funk, and injured (Montgomery, Adams, Lacy, and Quarless) the next defense???  The #1 ranked Denver Broncos.  The nice thing is Peyton Manning is a joke and if Raji and/or Burnett return they shouldn’t score 24 points which I believe the Packers are guaranteed to do in each remaining game.  The entire Broncos offense is a joke and they’ve been winning because their Defense and Special Teams have outscored their offense IN THE SEASON!!!  That bodes quite well for the Packers who are great at taking care of the football (knock on wood).   If the Packers stick to the run early and often, and take care of the football they should come out on top.  It should be a low-scoring game but once you say that…My prediction will be below but I wanted to inform you that being the Bye week I’ll have a few thoughts about how much the Packers miss Jordy Nelson, if at all.

Packers 24
Broncos 16

Whelp, the Packers played their worst game of the year (offensively at least) and there still was never a worry.    Glad to see Clay Matthews, not only earning his pay check but, playing like DPOY (Def. Player of the Year).  Back to the offense…give the Rams defense a ton of credit, they’re pretty damn good and they focused on stopping the run game and short passes.  Many fans here are worried about the Packers not having a deep threat since losing Jordy Nelson – valid point, more on that in another blog – however, my worry is the Packers did not even attempt a throw longer than 30 yards.  In order to make the defense respect the deep ball, you must at least attempt 1!!!  Once Davante Adams returns I believe the Packers will open it up a bit more but if not, that makes this week’s game even more tough.

San Diego entered this season with high expectations – a deep playoff run = High Expectations for them; not the Packers.  They sit at 2-3 and are quite desperate with a decent amount of talent.  Philip Rivers is a solid QB with a Hall of Fame Tight End (TE), Antonio Gates and a great young Wide Receiver (WR) Keenan Allen.  Yeah yeah, Melvin Gordon is coming back to Wisconsin for the first time since being drafted by the Chargers.  I don’t think they’re built for MGIII to have a ton of success.  No real bruising Fullback (FB) and are more pass-happy than balanced and thus I don’t think Gordon will have a ton of success v Green Bay, even if BJ Raji is out with an injured groin.  The Packers match up well v San Diego, well the Packers match up well against anyone really.

This should be a tough/close game, possibly similar to last week.  If Rodgers doesn’t turn the ball over 3 times (which I’m willing to bet a ton he won’t) the Packers should control this game.  Get the win, stay healthy, and get healthier through the Bye week because there’s the toughest test of the season awaiting in week 8.

Chargers 20
Packers 31

It’s been a while, sorry about that… here we go!

We know 1 of 2 things (or maybe nothing new at all) 1. The Packers defense, especially the rush defense, is vastly improved OR 2. The 9ers suck…ok we knew that last year.  It was refreshing to see the Packers shut down a team, on the road.  After the TD on the first drive I wasn’t the least bit concerned for the rest of the game.  However, since the goal is perfection (which is not attainable, I think a legendary coach mentioned something about that) let’s focus on a few flaws…

¼ through the season we now have a sample of everything.  I’ve crunched some #s regarding 3^rd down efficiency and the difference of NOT having Jordy Nelson.  Let me state that I said I didn’t think the Packers would “miss” Jordy all that much due to Rodgers being able to make up for lost production.  The Packers are converting 40.4% of third downs this year which ranks 16^th (I believe) as opposed to last season converting 47.4% (3^rd overall).  I calculated all of Jordy’s 3^rd down targets and conversions…when Jordy was targeted on 3^rd down, he converted 50%.  That’s really good.  So one can state that the Packers really miss No. 87, however I argue with Jordy going down the Packers are a more efficient offense.  Time of possession is way up, total plays/game is up, both which help the Defense incredibly!  I’m not saying Jordy being injured directly makes the defense great, but when you have Aaron Rodgers and a great offensive coaching staff, it makes it much easier to adjust as opposed to, say, the Atlanta Falcons losing Julio Jones (whom I believe is the best WR in the NFL).

Ok – let’s look at the St. Louis Rams.  In week 1 they beat, what we thought at the time was a great team, Seattle.  They then had a huge let down the next week at a bad Redskins (oh my god!  I said their name, the Redskins! :O) team.  Everyone is focusing that St. Louis went into Glendale, AZ and beat an undefeated Cardinals team; impressive.  Are the Rams set up for another let down?  I say no…because the Packers are arguably the best team in the NFL, arguable the best Home Team too.

St. Louis features possibly the best defensive front in all of football, DEs Robert Quinn & Chris Long and DTs Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers.  This could pose a huge problem for the Packers’ tackles, even if Bulaga plays.  Bakhtiari has regressed each season after having a decent debut season as a rookie.  Don Barclay has shown he can’t block anyone, run or pass block that is, since injuring his knee.  Bulaga will be tested v. this front.  St. Louis is built around great/solid defense and a tough running game, just like Jeff Fisher always tries to build…with all of that I still don’t think if St. Louis plays their A-game they come into Lambeau and get a win.  With that, my prediction is below…

Rams 17
Packers 27

This should be the standard!  Did you not expect this from this Green Bay Packers team?  Vegas pegged them as Super Bowl favorites, so why is there so much Packer Kool-Aid being chugged?  This should be expected, every year…more on this in weeks to come.

This was a good team win v. Kansas City, but it should’ve been better.  45-14 seems better.   Keep the pressure on.  Many may say the game was over at half, well so was the NFC Championship game v. Seattle.  If anything we should’ve learned from that game and always keep the foot on the pedal.

I learned:
The rush defense is vastly improved from last year and a healthy Clay Matthews can earn his $11M/yr. paycheck.
Damarious Randall is a solid corner, and hopefully he continues his progression and can really solidify the defense for the next 5-7 years.
BJ Raji is healthy and that’s a very, very good thing.

Coming into week 4, I’ve never felt this confident heading to San Fran.  This is an opportunity to “exorcise demons” in some sense but this is a completely different team (SF) than seasons’ passed.  This is a good tune-up game, should be no issue to move the ball.  The only mis-match is Carlos Hyde (leads the NFL in forcing missed tackles) v. the Packers run Defense (led the league in missed tackles after week 2).  With that, I’m still not worried.  Colin Kaepernick is God Awful…matches his persona.  The Packers should have an interception or two – with Rodgers at QB, that should amount to 30+ points.

Green Bay 31
San Francisco 13

Quite a flurry of posts, and we’re back at it.  On to week 3.  I personally moved on as of Tuesday afternoon but didn’t have time to write about it, until now.  I’ll start saying the Packers should be favored because they’re the better team, but that doesn’t mean I’m not worried (you like the double-negative?) about a few matchups.

Like I said in week 2’s recap, I believe Seattle’s O-line was more to attest to the Packers’ newfound rush defense.  With that, if Green Bay holds Jamaal Charles in check then we’re working with something here.  The potential nightmares I see are Justin Houston/Tamba Hali (Chiefs’ outside rusher, and they’re good, really good) v David Bakhtiari and Don Barclay.  For those who know me, I’m not as harsh on Barclay as maybe I should be but he’s a backup for a reason.  He’s an adequate run blocker and being on the right side his pass blocking isn’t as crucial as being on the left.  Now that’s no excuse for being awful like he was last week vs. Seattle but he’s gonna have a helluva time with Justin Houston all night.  (If you didn’t catch it, the first two potential matchup issues are 1. KC’s rush offense vs. GB’s rush defense and 2. KC’s OLBs (Outside Linebackers) vs. GB’s tackles.)

Kansas City’s defense is just good overall.  They have solid corners in Sean Smith and emerging rookie Marcus Peters (INT in each game so far, I think each was a pick-6 too).  Their safety play will be better than Seattle’s too.  Eric Berry (so happy for him, he battle cancer last year and is back playing in the NFL, and at a high level too) is one of the premier safeties in the NFL.  He can cover, hit, and make plays – just a playmaker and someone to watch.  Even if Davonte Adams and Eddie Lacy don’t play, I’m still most worried about Morgan Burnett because he makes such a difference on GB’s defense.  If Burnett plays I think the Packers win with a little issue.  If not, it could be nerve-wracking like last week.

Kansas City 20
Green Bay 24

After hearing Doug Melvin called up 6 (I believe) kids from Biloxi, even if before David Stearns was hired on as his successor, even furthers how inept Melvin is of running a small market team. Stearns stated exactly what I’ve been saying for years (hence why I started this blog thingy, and I’m paraphrasing): With a small market team, young and controllable talent is paramount. Having as much time before they hit arbitration is key to building the foundation of a successful organization.

That was music to my ears yet, as I said above, Melvin acted in the antithesis direction!!! How can a 32-year old diehard fan of the team have a better understand and direction of how to run the organization???? How I ask??? Yes, it’s rhetorical but man is it frustrating.

Moving on – I did mention in another post that I was or used to be optimistic. I am. Trust me. Better late than never right? So now we’ve hired the right guy, at least I think so. A young, smart, experienced, baseball nut whose goal is to win a World Series. Yes! That’s the guy I want and the expectation this city must have in order to actually win one! No more parties at the Summerfest grounds for clinching a playoff berth. No more shutting down Wisconsin Avenue for LOSING the World Series. I’m all for going nuts if the team I root for brings home the Trophy, there’s only one that matters in each sport. The World Series trophy would be absolutely amazing and I’d be first in line along Wisconsin Avenue to watch the caravan. I’ve been part of one such parade in my life, and it was by complete coincidence. I was in the streets of downtown Boston when the Bruins threw their parade after winning the Stanley Cup in the Summer of 2011. That was absolutely amazing to be a part of and I was only glad they won because they were facing the Blackhawks 🙂

To close, the Brewers (or should I say Mark Attanasio?) need to recognize they’ve made the correct hire in Stearns and now need to step the hell out of the way and let him control everything. I don’t understand the concept of keeping Doug Melvin around, in any capacity. For those who think he’s an asset, I don’t consider Melvin’s tenure a success by any stretch regardless of where the team was when he took over. 2 playoff appearances in 13 seasons??? I agree Major League Baseball (MLB) has the toughest postseason to enter, but that doesn’t mean in a decade + to consider the GM a success (let along savior to some) by getting there twice. The goal? The St. Louis Cardinals. They’re the standard. Market-size or not, I don’t care. Big contracts are cool but ask yourself…how many of them workout? How many of those guys actually play to their contract? It’s the players that earn that money (while not being paid a ton) that produce and that’s what Stearns wants to flood this Brewers organization with, and I’m 100% for it!!!!

The Brewers got it right! Of course there’s no guarantee they’ll win a World Series with David Stearns as GM, but his vision is what I (and a few of my friends) have been clamoring for years. It’s refreshing to know the franchise has the proper person at the helm instead of someone only worried about home runs and putting asses in seats. My only concern is Mark Attanasio will still meddle and act as Herb Kohl 2.0 – if that’s the case, it doesn’t matter who the GM is, this franchise will never see a World Series championship with him as owner.

…s/he’s a Packer fan. My whole life I’ve been the optimistic fan, but the more I learn, the more I worry. Time’s-a-wastin’ and us Packer fans have a shot at a dynasty. A much-needed dynasty. I’ve never rooted for a team that’s had one (well okay the Packers of the 1960’s but I wasn’t around to enjoy it). My point here is by beating Seattle, clearing that mental hurdle – even if it was only my hurdle – was absolutely huge!

What I learned: Aaron Rodgers is pretty good. Ok that everyone knew, but we can lay to rest his whole lack of 4^th quarter comebacks stuff, right? I’ve been saying for years that he doesn’t have many because he’s rarely losing. So 3 of his last 4 games he’s led drives in the 4^th quarter to tie or take the lead, with all 3 of those game being in the postseason. Hardly something #4 ever did. (I’ll write in the offseason about how much better 12 is than Brett).

James Starks looked, well…like James Starks. Slashing/decisive running and vision with the ball nowhere near his body which almost cost the game. However, he’s a backup for a reason and a damn good one. Richard Rodgers may have the best hands in the NFL, no I’m not joking. It just has a different sound when the ball hits his hands. Reminds me of Cris Carter, the best hands I’ve ever seen. The ball just sticks I don’t know how else to explain it.

The defense played well, but then again Seattle’s O-line is garbage which I believe added more to the D-line playing well but still promising. I was quite disappointed with Casey Hayward’s (Corner Back) play, he gave up 2 huge plays: 32-yard completion on 3^rd and 16 from Seattle’s own 20ish; TD pass to Fred Jackson (oldest running back in the league) on 3^rd down from GB’s 5ish. Jayrone Elliott baby!!! I don’t believe he’ll be a huge difference-maker but I did call for him to start at OLB opposite Peppers and keep Clay inside. Well, it was a great game and the good guys prevailed over Evil and I’m glad I was WAY WRONG on my prediction!

First, let me start off capping off the Packers week 1 match-up versus Chicago.  I re-watched the 1^st half and took some detailed notes.  (I decided not to watch the 2^nd half for a few reasons, mostly due to the fact my 1-month old was not a fan of me watching a game she’s already seen).

Like I mentioned in my first post, the rush defense in the Base 3-4, was fine.  Aside from Pennell completely blowing assignment by being too aggressive and attacking Cutler, they likely could’ve forced a 3^rd and long on the first series of the game…however, based on how Capers calls a game Chicago likely would’ve picked up the 1^st due to going completely lame and rushing 3 while dropping eight.

Ok, moving on…going into week 2 it’s the 1995 Dallas Cowbo….err, I mean the Seattle Seahawks.  Let me preface by stating If Seattle wore different helmets the Packers might boat-race them out of the stadium.  With that being said, I believe the Packers are the superior team but Seattle has the mental edge.  Whether you think you can or you can’t, you’re right!  A buddy of mine directed me to Seattle’s beat writers (I read as much as I can on the enemy from their POV (point of view) as I can) and they were concerned about their run game and offensive line, as they should be.  So their thought???  Green Bay is what the doctor ordered (sorry Todd, had to steal it).  It’s true!  Seattle’s offensive line is garbage, the only one worse is Chicago… (Cripes!).  I know the Packers get Datone back, but he’s average at best v. the run and Capers shows no ability to keep the Base D out there to stuff it.

For those of you that are screaming, “Nick!  Capers pitched a shutout v Seattle in their place for 3.9 quarters!”  My response is, “He did, but then explain to me how the D gave up 21 points on Seattle’s final three possessions all in under 6 minutes.”  Awful…personnel changes, coaches stay the same, same results – someone look up the definition of insanity, please.  Sorry, I digress — I can’t pick the Packers to beat Seattle until they actually beat them.  Seattle’s OL is terrible, but the Packers can’t stop the rush anyway, so I’m guessing the Packers can’t hold them under 150 yards rushing, let alone 100!!!  Wilson just finds a way to get it done, even though I think he’s overrated (that defense helps a little).  Rodgers, along with new play-caller Tom Clements, likely will attack Sea’s secondary a bit more aggressively than in the past 3 matchups, but with Bulaga injuring his surgically repaired knee in practice Thursday, and likely out for Sunday, I’m interested to see how that changes formations, etc.

I so desperately want to pick GB, as I did in the preseason, but with the Bulaga injury and now that game time is close I’m going with Seattle 27 Green Bay 24.  If that’s the case I have no idea how my preseason Super Bowl pick will win a ring.  Until that Defense improves, significantly (which I don’t think will happen until Capers is gone) it seems like it’ll be another wasted/failure of a year.  This could be the 8th season of Rodgers starting at QB, the most efficient, accurate, intelligent QB of all time IN HIS PRIME and he’ll only have one ring = WASTE!!!!  Now if the Packers win (which wouldn’t shock me, hell it wouldn’t surprise me) not only will I have a delicious beer with my crow dinner, everything I just said goes by the wayside.

GO PACK GO!!!