The Packers find themselves in a tough situation, still.  With the win last week they’re caught in the position of Win today and Rodgers likely comes back for the final 3 games, however since they don’t control their own destiny, 10-6 may not be good enough to make the playoffs.  While it’s crazy to think the Packers can win a super bowl without changing anything major- then again this is an odd year in the NFL, once which I believe the Packers can win with Aaron Rodgers and an average defense.

So let’s root for the Packers to make the playoffs, considering even a loss to Cleveland won’t result in Ted Thompson or Mike McCarthy losing their jobs…here we go.

Playoff Picture—the Packers enter 6-6 looking up at Detroit (6-6) and Atlanta (8-5) which Green Bay has both lost to, so they need to finish with a better record than each.  The Packers have another crack at Detroit in week 17 to best them, however the Falcons need to finish 9-7 or 8-8 in order for the Packers to finish ahead of them.  The more likely scenario for the Packers to reach the playoffs are to have Carolina (8-4) lose two more games, with one of them being next week v Green Bay (to hold the head-to-head tiebreaker) and Seattle (8-4) to lose two more games (with Green Bay already holding the head-to-head tiebreaker).  Meaning Packer fans should be rooting for the Vikings v Panthers and the Jaguars v Seahawks today.

Preview/Match-up—
Green Bay O v Cleveland D
-25^th offense (20^th in points, 21.5 pts/game) going up against Cleveland’s 10^th ranked defense (26^th in points, surrendering 25.7 points/game).
Green Bay D v Cleveland O
-24^th defense (17^th in points, 23.4/game) v 24^th offense (32^nd in points, 14.7 points/game).

Yet another match-up of two bad teams.  Cleveland also has talent, however their execution is atrocious.  They have the 10^th best defense, but surrender a bunch of points in the red zone, similar to their offense, they can move the ball and turn it over (-19, worst in the NFL in t/o differential) eventually.  The Packers’ defense will be tested by the return of Wide Receiver, Josh Gordon.  He’s an incredible talent that loves smoking weed.  He’s a big play producer, consistently, regardless of his quarterback.  If the Packers win this game, they’ll have to keep Cleveland under 20 points and that means keeping Josh Gordon in check.  In his return v Casey Hayward and the Chargers, who’s rated as the best cornerback in the NFL by PFF, and Gordon had 4 catches for 85 yards (21.3 yards/reception).  The other issue is the Packers will be forced to play Demetri Goodson, who was essentially out of the NFL this year and is now going to receive a ton of playing time v a bad QB (Deshone Kizer) but an awesome WR in Gordon.

Hopefully my trend of being wrong continues….

Packers 20
Browns 23

30-18—I was wrong last week!

Just like that the Packers not only no longer control their own destiny and now need a ton of help to even think about the playoffs.  There are two schools of thought now:

1. The Packers need to win these next 2 games (v Tampa Bay, @ Cleveland) and return Aaron Rodgers to attempt to win out the regular season and finish 10-6.
2. The Packers lose out (5-11) and that’s enough to get some major change in the front office at 1265 Lombardi Ave, meaning Ted Thompson and or Mike McCarthy and other coaching and front office personnel are fired.

Regardless, something needs to drastically change in order for this team to become a legitimate contender again.  If you’re of the school of thought that the Packers should win out in hopes the right teams lose enough to allow them a playoff spot and see what happens, at least the NFL seems “down” this season so that almost any team has a shot.

Review—Green Bay actually made that a competitive game which begs the question Truly how good are the Steelers? v Are the Packers actually making strides?  Pittsburgh may have been looking ahead to New England in a few weeks, but to blow multiple coverages allowing huge plays for TDs against a team where you want to make them drive down the field is uncalled for.  Credit the Packers for taking advantage of turnovers and hitting those big plays—even so Green Bay couldn’t pull off the much-needed upset.  This game showed the talent disparity between the two ball clubs.  I’ve claimed the Packers have talent, however the top-end talent of Green Bay doesn’t compare to the top-end talent of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers have arguably the best running back and wide receiver in the NFL along with a very talented DL in Heyward and speedy MLB in Shazier that all came to play last Sunday night and make enough plays to win.

Preview—there used to be a time (1990’s) when Tampa Bay coming to Green Bay in December was an automatic win (and likely would be with Rodgers at QB), the Buccaneers bring the 14^th offense (23^rd in points/game: 20.3) and the last-ranked defense (32^nd in yards, 21^st in points allowed: 23.8/game).  This game, if you’re not a die-hard fan of either team, will be tough to watch.  These are two bad football teams as of today, but the Packers believe they have something to play for and until they’re mathematically eliminated, I guess they do.

Gerald McCoy (#93) is one of the top defensive lineman in the NFL, and will pose as a problem for this banged up Packers offensive line.  For Green Bay to win this game and put Brett Hundley in favorable 3^rd down situations, they’ll need to establish and keep with the run.  The other issue is Tampa’s solid WR Mike Evans (#13), the 6’5” Texas A&M standout is a productive wideout that could wreak havoc in the Packers banged up and soft secondary.  He’s a down-field threat which the Packers struggle with, especially if they’re unable to generate a pass rush.  If the Pack can get to Jameis Winston and force a turnover (Winston hasn’t thrown an INT in a Tampa win) that might be the key to winning the game today.  Either way, the Packers struggles on the offensive line and a banged up secondary may be too much to overcome against a bad Tampa team…

Buccaneers 24
Packers 21

30-17: sadly my loss predictions are correct.

Review—It goes without saying, that was one of the most pathetic offensive performances the Packers have “shown” in the last decade, plus.  Yes Baltimore possesses a solid defense, but at home in ideal conditions in a must-win game versus a bad team, the Packers needed to find a way to pull out a win.  That’s damn near impossible turning the ball over 5 times, even against a Joe Flacco-led offense.  The sad AFC now shows the Ravens as holding the 6^th spot in the playoffs, meanwhile in the NFC the Packers dropped to the 9^th (keep in mind only 6 make it from each conference).

If you’re looking for positives in the last game, I guess the Packers’ defense held a bad offense out of the end zone for most of the game and the first TD they gave up was on good coverage (that’s what it’s come to with this team).  Also, Adams was covered much of the day by Jimmy Smith (who had an impressive INT on Hundley on the first possession of the game) had a solid showing against Smith, totaling 126 yards on 10 targets (8 receptions).  Other than Adams, Kenny Clark was injured, thankfully it doesn’t seem serious, but no one really stood out.  Overall a complete team loss, which has been happening far too often – that falls on the shoulders of the head coach.

Situation—moving on to Pittsburgh, arguably a top 3 team in all the NFL.  Pittsburgh sits currently as the 1 seed in the AFC and has a ton to play for as they need to keep pace with New England if they want any shot at besting them in the playoffs as they play them in 4 weeks.  The Packers are in a very curious situation…  There are a few different directions this franchise could head.  I’ll lay out the options and you feel free to decide which one may be best.

1. The Packers could continue to shoot for making the playoffs this year and hope for a Rodgers return ala 2013 to boost them into the playoffs—ultimately losing in January, again.
2. Green Bay could lose out or most of their remaining games in hopes for a coaching or front-office change of sorts to instill new life/blood into this organization and possibly resetting the career of Aaron Rodgers for his remaining years (4-8 depending what you believe).
3. Last situation, what I believe is most-likely, the Packers finish the season somewhere between 7 and 9 wins, miss the playoffs and there’s no major change this offseasons due to the excuse that Rodgers was hurt, and Packer fans will again have false hope heading into next year of winning a Super Bowl.

Preview—again the Steelers have quite a bit to play for and they’re also a very good team, with talent all over the roster.  The same could be said for the Packers, but it’s showing that without Rodgers, McCarthy can’t game plan an offense or prep a team to win games, so like Super Bowls until he’s able to show he’s capable of messing up an opponents’ game plan and win a game why should I believe he can?

The Packers enter Thanksgiving Day with the 23^rd overall offense (20^th in points), the 18^th defense (both yards and points), and rank 13^th in turnover differential (+2).  Meanwhile Pittsburgh brings the 11^th overall offense (14^th points), 4^th overall defense (2^nd points), and one spot ahead of GB in turnovers, 12^th (+3).

The game-changers (at least according to ProFootballFocus, which you’ll hear a bit about on the broadcast Sunday night) are Antonio Brown (1^st overall WR), David DeCastro (1^st overall Guard), Ryan Shazier (6^th LB), Cameron Hayward (10^th DL), and Stephon Tuitt (13^th DL).  Look for each of those players to command the opposing player the Packers run out there.  The only potential advantage Green Bay could have in this game could be the DL v Pit’s OL, but even though that’s been the case in every game since Rodgers went down, it’s resulted in a 1-4 record.  Look for much of the same, especially being this is likely the best competition Green Bay will see all season.  The homer, fan in me is going to take over on score prediction, but the outcome of the game will not differ.

Packers 20
Steelers 31

29-17: the hits will keep rolling L

 

What a refreshing game from all sides of the ball, well except special teams – again.  Hopefully getting Brett Goode (long snapper, and Aaron Rodgers’ closest friend) back will fix those kicking issues.

The Defense looked better, however much of that should be credited to Mitchell Trubisky and his willingness to hold the ball longer than his opponent, Hundley, allowing Nick Perry to get 3 sacks on his own.  This seemed like a matchup between two teams with a gameplan of “Not to Lose,” however I’ll credit McCarthy and Hundley for getting aggressive on 3^rd and 10 from their own 35 and hitting a 42-yard pass down the right sideline to Davante Adams, which with a good snap, would’ve iced the game by making a field goal.  However, the defense was able to close out the woeful Bears offense and get the Win.

Speaking of woeful offenses, Baltimore brings in the 30^th ranked offense and a QB who’s making close to $25M this year and ProFootballFocus season grade of 70.1 (32^nd ranked QB) and a season passer rating of 72.7 (31^st overall) – these numbers being similar are coincidental, however both are bad.

The Ravens do have the 6^th overall defense and as the Packers players have been saying all week, their week 11 opponent is a heavy scheme opponent, meaning Baltimore like to disguise blitzes and coverages especially against inexperienced QBs to force them into mistakes and make game-changing plays.  The Ravens possess the 2^nd best defense v the pass, headed by outstanding cornerback, Jimmy Smith.  Smith was a highly-thought-of prospect out of Colorado and fell a bit in the draft due to some personal issues.  However, he’s considered one of the league’s best cover men and will make life tough for Hundley for whomever he’s following (likely Adams).

Overall the Packers are still a 2 point underdog, at home, meaning the boys in the desert think a bad Ravens team is still the better of the two in this matchup.  With Hundley playing his best game to date as a pro against the 2^nd best defense he’d seen (Min being the first) this is likely the best overall defense he’ll see until the week 16 matchup v Min down the road.

I’ll continue to pick against them until the Packers have given me enough confidence they can shut down a decent offense v holding down bad QB-play.  Flacco should give the Packers some opportunities for INTs, but without Morgan Burnett (captain and play-caller of the D) and rookie Kevin King, the Packers’ secondary may get caught just enough to lose.

Ravens 23
Packers 21

28-17: hoping I’m wrong again, could also use a little help from the Rams today (they play the Vikings).  You know, if you’re still rooting for the Packers and think they can win a super bowl this year, if 12 comes back.  Again, that’ll be for another day J

I think taking as much time to think about the current state of the Green Bay Packers is a great idea, as maddening as it may be.  Again, this all falls squarely on head coach, Mike McCarthy.  This team is getting outcoached in every facet of the game, and they’re still soft.  If anything, an injury to your star player should inject a “nothing to lose” attitude into the remaining 53 players and it’d be great if the Packer came out swinging- not literally, but show some heart.

The Packers now rank 23^rd and 25^th in total offense and defense, respectively.  The Bears possess a putrid offense (29^th) and a solid defense (8^th)…with the complacent offense McCarthy has schemed since Rodgers went down expect the Bears to hold the Packers out of the end zone, unless the Packers score on busted play (30+ yards).

Last week Detroit’s offensive coordinator, Jim Bob Cooter, no joke that’s his name, outclassed Dom Capers and stalemated a far superior Packers defensive front and allowed Stafford to carve up the confused secondary.  Look for Kenny Clark (#97) and Dean Lowry (#94) to try to take back command of the line of scrimmage.

The only way the Packers can win this game is to win the turnover battle, by at least 2, and needs the defense to be on the same page, which will be tough without their quarterback, Morgan Burnett.

Packers 13
Bears 24

28-16: sadly I’ve been correct, hopefully that stops…then again, if the Packers continue to lose there’s a chance major change could occur.

This season has fallen squarely on the shoulders of Head Coach Mike McCarthy.  A coach I’ve defended through and through (for the most part), mainly due to him being able to get his quarterbacks to produce at each of his stops throughout the NFL.  The caveat with him being that those quarterbacks haven’t gone on to produce after he left (or the QB leaving), aside from Brett Favre.  Although one could argue #4 was re-motivated.  We’ll save that for an offseason conversation.  Everyone is well aware of Mac’s QB school and with the Packers putting all their (backup QB) chips in with #7, this is 100% on Mac to get his team to win.

There are countless arguments being had regarding the overall talent of this Packers team, but there are 8 players registering a grade of 82.2 or higher on the season (source per ProFootballFocus), which might be the highest amount of players on a roster.  – I haven’t gone through each team, but a handful and the next closest is 5….also that doesn’t include Aaron Rodgers who would make it 9.

Looking at the current situation, the Packers sit at 4-3, 2^nd place in the NFC North with Minnesota holding the tiebreaker.  Meaning this game on Monday Night is paramount for both the Lions and Packers.  Boiling down to Mike McCarthy needing to get back to the offense he ran from 2006 – 2010, before Rodgers solidified himself as one of, if not the, best/most-talented QBs in the history of the NFL and completely opening up the spread and relying on concept routes (WRs run routes based off defensive alignment, brilliant until it isn’t).  Green Bay may have found a true running back in Aaron Jones, and with an above average offensive line (if all starters are playing), the Packers have a real opportunity to set Brett Hundley up for success with a proper game plan.

Moving to the Defense.  I believe it was a Bob McGinn or Tom Silverstein article from a few years back stating how Dom Capers’ approach goes against the approach of draft and develop.  Capers needs a veteran defense to understand his complex scheme where the Packers now have speed and talent, however youth, on defense and are still experiencing blown assignments.  I, like many , have been begging for a change at Defensive Coordinator since Colin Kaepernick ran wild in the 2012 Divisional Round playoff route (Jan 2013) because he couldn’t adjust when it seemed the rest of the NFL could and did.  I believe if the Packers switched to just a simple zone scheme concept and played a bunch of man coverage we’d actually find out the talent level of this defense.  Until that happens, we may never know and as long as McCarthy is here it seems as Dom is too.

Detroit Lions – what an enigma they are…they may seem like the poor man’s version of the Green Bay Packers.  All of their flaw may be “covered up” by their Quarterback, Matthew Stafford.  The issue is Stafford isn’t in the same class as Rodgers on a talent-level.  Detroit boasts the 19^th rated offense and 22^nd defense (yards/game).  The Packers technically are worse, 23^rd and 23^rd respectively.  Look for this game to come down to QB play as the Packers likely will win the line of scrimmage (as they had in Min and v NO, but still lost—that’s coaching).  With that, Stafford has quite a bit more experience and production than Hundley, and if McCarthy doesn’t allow 7 to play football, look for this game to be quite similar to the Saints game; A messy game between two teams with GB possessing more talent but not get it done.

Go Pack Go!!!

Lions 27
Packers 23

27-16

Obviously there’s only one story-line that stuck out from the Viking game, however since you didn’t come here to read the same things as everything you’ve read and listened to over the past week how about looking at it from a different perspective?

Stop me if you’ve read this before, but Kenny Clark was the best player on the field last Sunday.  That’s including both teams.  I’m not just using ProFootballFocus as a grade, but they thought the same.  I don’t want to get ahead of myself, but there’s a chance he’s a budding superstar registering an 85.1 overall grade from PFF on the season.  Considering he’s the 17^th ranked D-lineman that’s a major improvement, not only for him but for the Packers entire defense.  Considering he had an 83.1 grade v Dallas’ offensive line, which is no longer the best in the NFL but is still considered top 5-10, proves he’s a force at the ripe age of 22.

The other point I’d like to focus on is My Man #27 Josh Jones.  He’s been limited in snaps – I haven’t been keeping close track to snap counts and production when on the field v not – however I’d love to see him start and play as much as possible for three major reasons: 1- When he’s on the field the Packers D seems to get off the field or make things happen, and 2- He’s better than Haha Clinton-Dix who seems to always be 5 yards behind (as to not get beat deep) the play.  The INTs HHCD has are a result of terribly overthrown passes, not by actually reading the QB and making a play.  Finally 3- Jones has shown incredible potential and needs snaps to get better.  If he gets burned, who cares? it happens without him on the field anyway.

Now, finally to take on the prime focus point, Aaron Rodgers’ right collarbone.  While playing Dr. is dangerous because there’s assumptions and we all know what that leads to, but for us fans it’s fun, right?  Let’s look at this two ways….1^st Rodgers can make it back by the playoffs, so let’s say week 17 (like in 2013 when he returned to beat the Bears on a 4^th down to win the division).  Brett Hundley will be tasked with going .500 down that stretch.  I can’t think of a more ideal opponent than the New Orleans Saints.  A bad defense, historically (not worst of all time, but since Sean Payton has arrived) they’re not good and have relied on the arm of Drew Brees and a distinct home-field advantage to create enough opportunities for the Saints to outscore their opponents.  Well if you’re Brett Hundley, this is what you want- a bad defense coming to your home turf.  New Orleans ranks 26^th in overall defense and has only played two road games: week 1 @ Min (470 yards); week 3 @ Car (288 yards).  If the Packers can perform like the Vikings did in week 1 then the Packers have a good shot.

The way I see it, which many of my friends know, I’m quite excited to see how #7 produces in his first NFL career start after a week of preparation v the Saints.  I wouldn’t call this a Must Win game for Green Bay, but this could go a long way to proving to, not only the fans, but his team how Hundley can lead this team and if Rodgers can get back by the playoffs and Hundley leads this team to a division title he’d more than have exceeded initial expectations.  Then again, I’d have to write out an elaborate explanation as to why my expectations changed mid-season even though I say there’s no excuses.  At least for now, I’ll save that for the end of the season.  I digress…this will be a tough matchup, but GO PACK GO!

Saints 27
Packers 24

26-16 overall record

Apparently the defense still has some issues to work out – sadly I believe (like many) its still Dom Capers’ issue.  There seems to be talent littered all over this roster, defense included, but guys are usually out of position v getting beat.  Like many thought, the Packers’ offense had little issue moving the ball downfield although it took until the 2^nd half to execute.

We can revel in the brilliance of the last drive, but it was a prime example of great play-calling, great players having practiced with one another and being on the same page, and just pure execution.  However, if you’ve read along you know I don’t like to review too much so let’s move on.

Enter the Minnesota Vikings.  Like the title of this blog, it should be an easy win, but likely won’t be.  The Vikes are without their top 3 offensive skill starters: Bradford; Diggs; Cook.  That should alleviate the pressure on the defense – so a successful defensive game would be holding Minnesota to <300 yards and <20 points.  If Green Bay struggles then everyone should be looking at red flags.  Please don’t think “Just win the game and move on.”  A super bowl team should be able to run the Vikings out of the gym.

Minnesota does possess a solid defense (7^th overall) and Mike Zimmer-led defenses has given Aaron Rodgers-led offenses fits.  I believe they’re even in 8 games (4-4), but this shouldn’t matter because the overall talent is far superior for the Packers.

Packers 27
Vikings 17

26-15: I didn’t update last week’s record, so far things are looking good- so let’s keep it up!

Covering the results from the Bears game- the Packers found a way to get the job done on a short week while missing quite a few players.  There was actually a point in the game (likely after Glennon’s 2^nd or maybe 3^rd turnover) where Packer fans (I did) had to ask themselves “How in the hell did Chicago beat Pittsburgh?”  That begs quite a few questions, however with it being a short week for the Bears as well, let’s not look too much into it.  Got the W and let’s move on.

Dallas Cowboys – a team I picked to finish 8-8 this year, and considered one of the biggest frauds (of all-time) last year.  There are quite a few items I’d like to cover, so here we go:

1. Aaron Rodgers’ interviews this week seem to exude extreme confidence (as they should).
2. Recent track record.
3. The hurt get healthy, really healthy.

1—Looking at the first item…this week Rodgers was asked about his success in playing in that stadium and if there’s a rivalry that’s been reborn.  His response is quite comforting to me (and I’ll paraphrase): Well our team is different, as it is every year.  So is theirs…they’re missing guys like Claiborne (CB), Barry Church (Safety), and Carr (CB).  Those were average, to above average players and now they’re gone having been replaced by no names.  Also, they all play in the defensive backfield and where the Cowboys helped themselves out last year by controlling the ball and keeping their D fresh – they can’t seem to accomplish the same in 2017.  Have people figured out how to defend Dak Prescott?  Maybe.  But let’s look at their recent track record.

2—in their 4 games this year, Dallas has given up the following stats 101/154, 1031 yards, 8td/1int for a total rating of 99.24.  In week 2, the Broncos (not known for their offense) racked up 42 points on 380 total yards v Dallas.  Just think what Aaron Rodgers should be able to accomplish v that defense, especially in ideal conditions as well in a place that he’s had quite a bit of success (I believe he’s 2-0 there, both in the postseason, for what it’s worth).

3—lastly, the Packers are returning 3 major starters: Bakhtiari; Bulaga; Daniels.  All 3 are major contributors and at key positions for this matchup.  The Cowboys feature DeMarcus Lawrence (#90), whom leads the NFL in sacks (7.5) through the 1^st quarter of the season.  Having Bakhtiari and Bulaga return eases quite a bit of discomfort I’d normally have rolling into this game.  On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys still possess one of the NFL’s premier offensive lines, and Daniels’ return should aid Green Bay’s rush defense.

With all of these factors, aside from being pessimistic and worrying, it’s tough for me to see how Dallas can win this game (turnovers, blah blah blah).  If ever there was a time for this offense to get on track, it’s NOW!  I’ve been wrong before and I’ll guarantee I’ll be wrong again, but until then…

Packers 34
Cowboys 20

Well that was much closer, tougher than it needed to be. However, for as bad as the quarterback played in the 1st half (8/13, 73 yards, 1td, 1int, 70.3rat) he excelled in the 2nd half and OT (20/29, 240yds, 2td, 117rat). I’ll continue to be critical of Rodgers until he wins another one to two rings, but until then let’s take it game by game, at least for now. Let’s not forget MY MAN the new JJ – #27 Josh Jones, 12 tackles and 2 sacks (key sacks too!).

Back to the QB, he’ll impress me if Green Bay comes away tonight with a victory—but you may say “Woah Nick, they’re playing the Bears, at home!” True, but from playing O-line I was always taught As the line goes, so goes the team and the Packers are working on starting their 5th and 6th string tackles at both LT and RT tonight and that’s a recipe for disaster. This game will come down to McCarthy’s game plan and if he can get the ball out of Rodgers’ hand quick enough before pressure gets home. If there ever was a game to run screens and draws, tonight is it.

As for Chicago, lookout for their running backs, they have 2 talented ones: Jordan Howard; Tarik Cohen. They’re each averaging over 4.4 yards/carry, with Cohen avg around 6.5. They’ll try to quicken the game by keeping the ball on the ground and trying to keep it close (which underdogs typically do), so look for the Packers to stop the run with their front 7 and hopefully not needing to load the box.

Other than that, being a short week and a ton of injuries this game could be a mess and I feel the Packers will need a very efficient, high passing attempt game from Rodgers to control the ball and the game.

I’ve thought all week Chicago would win because of the Packers’ OL situation, but for some reason I can’t believe Mac and 12 would be held under 24 points at home, against a subpar opponent.

Bears 16
Packers 24

25-15 overall record