YESH!!! (Marv Albert voice).  The NFL is officially here!  Of course that brings a whole bunch of excitement, and for some Packer fans, it led off with the painful announcement of the Chicago Bears acquiring the best defender in the game to shore up an already top 10 defense.  Khalil Mack could’ve possibly have been the Reggie White-type acquisition this team seems to require in order to win another Lombardi trophy.  However, he’s down in Chicago, hopefully wasting his career and never winning a ring.

With that, let’s get onto the season.  As you may recall, the Philadelphia Eagles turned around from 7-9 in 2016 to earn the 1 seed at 13-3 and win the Super Bowl.  Is there a team capable of that this year??? (see where I’m going with this?).  Let’s find out!

Again, I actually nerd-out and take the time to go through every game of every team and mark the W/L for each accordingly, here’s what we have.

AFC North				NFC North
3Baltimore	10	6		1Green Bay	11	5
5Pittsburgh	10	6		5Minnesota	11	5
Cincinnati	6	10		Chicago	8	8
Cleveland	5	11		Detroit	6	10
AFC South				NFC South
4Houston	10	6		3Atlanta	10	6
6Jacksonville	10	6		6New Orleans	10	6
Tennessee	7	9		Carolina	9	7
Indianapolis	4	12		Tampa Bay	6	10
AFC East				NFC East
1New England	13	3		4Philadelphia	9	7
Buffalo	9	7		Dallas	8	8
Miami	5	11		Washington	8	8
NY Jets	4	12		NY Giants	4	12
AFC West				NFC West
2LA Chargers	11	5		2LA Rams	10	6
Oakland	9	7		San Francisco	9	7
Kansas City	8	8		Seattle	6	10
Denver	8	8		Arizona	4	12

While I feel realistic about Green bay going 11-5, I don’t think 11-5 will net the 1 seed.  However, in this case, that’s what happened.  So let’s go!  With these standings there were some tiebreakers that would go to the 3^rd or even 4^th line, without figuring the score for each game of each team I just gave the div titles to Bal, Hou, and Atl.  Is it important? Absolutely, but we carry on.

Wildcard round—

• Min @ Phi—rematch of the NFC title game, and I think it’s much closer than that game, however I believe the result is the same: the Eagles fly to Green Bay winning 24-20.
• NO @ Atl—a divisional rival match, which I believe home field is so important…Atlanta triumphs with their opportunistic defense and bests Brees and the Saints, 27-21.
• Jax @ Bal—yawn, for us NFC fans, however this could be a defensive battle and while rookie QB Lamar Jackson provides a shot in the arm, it’s too little too late vs the Jaguars great defense, Jags move on: 21-17.
• Pit @ Hou—this has Saturday night written all over it, and it could be fun! The Watt bros. battle it out, along with all the dynamic playmakers on both teams on both sides of the ball…this could be fun! It might resemble the 2016 divisional playoff game when a savvy vet (Rodgers) in this case, Big Ben, comes into the young, inexperienced QB (Dak) Watson and we have a shootout!  I tip my cap to the vet, Steelers win a nail-bitter: 34-31.

Divisional Round—

• Phi @ GB—better take care of home field! The defending champs come to Lambeau in a Saturday night battle at Lambeau in a “warm” January night (30 degrees), Rodgers and the offense, littered with rookies that have hit the proverbial wall, but warm up in the 2^nd half and pull out a sloppy game: 29-24.
• Atl @ LAR—a wild card rematch, however this one is a bit more fun than last year’s…Jared Goff and Gurley III light up the scoreboard, but they’re done in by one of their many big offseason acquisitions, Marcus Peters. He gets beat late in the 4^th, twice by Julio Jones and the Falcons win: 28-24.
• Jax @ NE—what’s the point of breaking this down? Tom at home, in the playoffs…they win: 31-14.
• Pit @ LAC—is this Philip Rivers’ last hoorah?   This generation’s version of Dan Marino continues to carry that torch and doesn’t win when the lights are bright.  While the Chargers may have the most-balanced team of talent spread out in the NFL, the lack of experience is just too much…Steel city prevails: 27-14.

Championship Sunday—(one of the best days of the year)

• Pit @ NE—while this is the 2^nd game of the day, let’s save the best for last. Big Ben vs Tommy Boy.  What a great final 4 on Champ Sunday.  The Steelers lead late, by 3, with the ball and they’re driving, but are held to a field goal.  The Pats get the ball back on the 25 after a touchback with 1:47 left….you know how this ends—Brady hits some no-name WR for a TD with 0:06 left and the Pats go to their 9^th Super Bowl in the Brady/Belicheck era: 28-27.
• Atl @ GB—a 2016 rematch of the boat race in Atlanta. This is a back & forth match up, but the Packers’ lack of OL depth does them in when Bulaga exits early with an injury, and while the musical chairs OL holds up for most of the game, a key 3^rd and 7 late in the 4^th with Green Bay leading, allows quick pressure and Rodgers dumps it off to Monty for a 5-yard gain to their own 40.  The Packers punt and pin Atlanta deep, but the rookie Corners I mentioned earlier give way to the best WR in the game, Julio, for 2 big 4^th down conversions and Matty Ice dumps off a 4^th and goal with 0:20 left to Coleman for a TD…Atlanta is victorious, in Lambeau, in the title game (ugh, god that would suck so hard b/c I’d probably pay to go): 27-24.

Super Bowl LIII—

• Atl vs NE—version 2.0. As much as it would blow for the Packers to be at home in the title game, to have what every NFL fan deserves (Brady v Rodgers super bowl), we would be treated to a rematch of the best Super Bowl ever.
  • Could Matt Ryan choke any harder than 28-3? That’s actually impossible…I think…but if anyone could???
• Tom comes through to Gronk for 2 scores early 14-0 in the 1^st, but don’t score entering the 4^th, with Atlanta up 17-14. They trade TDs with Tom getting the ball with 5 minutes left down 24-21…Brady hands it off to rookie Sony Michel for a score to regain the lead, 28-24.  Matt Ryan has a chance to redeem himself and lead a 2 minute drill for 6 to best the GOAT, on the biggest stage.  (Enter choke artist)…they come up short on 4^th & 8 on the Pats’ 25.  Brady hoists his 6^th Lombardi trophy and everyone outside of Boston is pissed.

The main question is, if this happens, Green Bay losing a home NFC title game, again, under Mike McCarthy, is that enough to move the Big Guy out of town?  I don’t know, but regardless, I’d feel a LOT better going into 2019 as those rookies, whom I believe are going to be good, at least 3 of them, will get a ton of great experience…If you’re still reading, you’re likely Ruth 🙂

 

Hello, it’s been a while, again, however I thought it’d be less stressful to let the preseason playout vs. writing weekly trying to figure out things that ultimately won’t matter, i.e. who will be the 7^th wide receiver, will the Packers keep 3 quarterbacks, etc.  With that, let’s cover the major items that have occurred since Aug 4^th.

Aaron Rodgers’ contract – the Packers and their uber-talented QB agreed to a 4 year, $134M extension.  What does this mean?  Better question that I’ve posed is How does this help the Green Bay Packers?  Honestly.

• Did it free up some cap space? Maybe for this year, and possibly next.  Not enough space to give the ability to acquire, say, Khalil Mack (more on that later, btw).
• Does this give the Packers more control, longer control? Not really, the Packers had 2 years of contract remaining (2018 and 2019), then could franchise tag him for 3 years following (2020 would be an avg. of the top 5 salaries for QBs, 2021 would be 120% of that salary, 2022 would be 140% of 2021’s salary).
• Does it make him happy, and re-motivate him? Hopefully he didn’t need that to be better.
• Does this mean Rodgers will let off and fade away? Doubtful, he doesn’t strike me as the person, player that will fall off, at least not because he was paid. Age?  That might be a different reason, but he was under control until he was 39 anyway.

Khalil Mack—with the Rodgers contract out of the way, the fans’ next priority was to go after Mack, arguably the best defender in the NFL.  As I write this, the Bears and Raiders have agreed to a trade that will send the 2-time All-Pro to Chicago in exchange for what is believed to be multiple 1^st round draft picks and possibly a starting caliber player.  While I would’ve been all for this trade by the Packers, the problem is Chicago could offer more, AND justify spending more $ on Mack with their available cap space.

53-Man Roster—I write this (well began before the cuts) after the finalized roster was made.  Although there were some puzzling cuts/keeps, I think the roster will change over a bit before the week 1 kickoff vs. Chicago.  However, the Packers kept 8 WRs, 4 TEs, and 2 HBs.  We know there will be a change come Week 3 with the Halfbacks once Aaron Jones is reinstated after serving his 2-game suspension.  He’s also, I believe, the best back the Packers have.  After that, there were no Fullbacks kept which is a sign of possibly 2 things:

1. There will be no I-form sets this year L (QB under center, with a fullback and Halfback both directly lined up behind the QB).
2. Mercedes Lewis and/or Lance Kendricks will be used as a make-shift FB…I’m all for that!

It still feels like Brian Gutekunst will be making changes prior to Sun, Sept 9^th.  Plus, as I write this (11p-ish  on Sept 1) there are rumors about Green Bay making trades for Sea’s all-world Safety, Earl Thomas (yes please).  There are also players cut by other teams (Min DE Brian Robison for example) that could come in and contribute at areas of need, immediately.  Either way, from what Gutey has shown so far, he’s a bit more active, while being conservatively smart, than his predecessor was of late.

Optimism??—many of you that converse with me, especially consistently, know how I feel about almost every aspect of this great organization…however, there’s a reason to think this team can win a Super Bowl this year.  It might take quite a bit of luck and timing, but then again, what team that wins doesn’t require that stuff?

1. Luck—I could cover health, but that’s too obvious/easy. How about not getting screwed in a key game with these new helmet-to-helmet penalties?  I truly worry that a team’s season will come down to, what many consider (myself included), the wussification of the NFL.
2. Timing—what I mean by timing is a bit difficult to follow, but here’s hoping I’m able to communicate properly. Rookies rarely contribute, it usually takes 2+ years for them to help in a major way, unless you’re the 2017 Saints…the rookies will need early snaps to get their feet wet, but the veterans to fill in when the learning curve gets to be too much, so the Packers can still win games.  Then later in the season, before the rookie wall hits they can contribute so the veterans don’t get burned out and can save their legs.  Does that all make sense?

If that happens, along with the new defense gelling enough, this team could earn a top 2 seed in the NFC.  If the Packers can get the 1 seed, there’s a realistic chance they could get to the Super Bowl…and as critical as I am of Aaron Rodgers, all I can judge him on in the Super Bowl is an MVP-caliber performance, which is expected if he gets there again J

Realistically?—the optimistic-realist in me thinks any team experiencing this much change doesn’t win a World Championship the following season.  I do believe the Green & Gold can get to the playoffs and possibly win a game – stop me if that sounds familiar – but the soonest they win a ring is next year, then again does that mean it’s impossible?

 

Good bye summer??  Hopefully not too soon, but with training camp well under way we all know what the weather does, at least we have football to hold us until February…

If you’re reading this, you’ve likely been keeping up to date with the goings on at Packers training camp.  Aaron Rodgers has been intercepted 6 times already (as of Aug 4^th when I’m writing this) and many are trying to figure out if it’s his arm, or the Mike Pettine-led defense.  Obviously Packer fans are all hoping for the latter, which it likely is, it also is August 4^th…essentially the time for no-namers to get their time to shine.  The promising thing is the positive updates from the first round pick, Jaire Alexander.  He’s impressed everyone so far in camp and hopefully that trend continues.  Kevin King (2017’s first pick, 33^rd overall) has also looked healthy and promising—both will need to play a big role and contribute if this team has any shot at winning the Super Bowl.

With Family Night just a few hours away, it’ll be nice to see Packer football (even if it’s a glorified practice) on TV to get the routine down again.  Don’t look for anything in particular tonight, other than that just hoping no one gets hurt and that the ball doesn’t hit the ground an inordinate amount of times.  What you may see, and what I’m “excited” to watch for is the increase of speed at the skill positions, especially Wide Receiver.  It’s tough for rookies to contribute in a major factor, with their speed and the speed coming from the 2^nd year players (Kevin King and Josh Jones) it should increase the overall team speed, which may be considered a strength by season’s end.

The news of Bryan Bulaga being cleared to play was also a welcome update as that solidifies the offensive line to a comfortable point; leaving the Right Guard spot the only open hole for competition.

Again, just a light practice tonight, hopefully no injuries, then gear up for the RG competition and the Tennessee Titans on Thursday, Aug 9^th at Lambeau!

 

 

Well well well…what a difference a General Manager makes.  I’d argue the biggest difference.  After letting more than enough time to pass to chew on Brian Gutekunst’s first draft as the lead man at 1265, it seems like he had a plan and executed it as best he could—improve the roster for now & later.  Let’s begin with the draft, his first 2 picks addressed an area of need while also taking the best potential players available.

1^st Jaire Alexander (CB – Louisville): many will compare him to Terrell Buckley based purely on size and athleticism.  However, many scouting reports and ProFootball Focus state that when healthy, this was the best pure-cover corner in the draft.  Considering of all stats and traits PFF researches, corner coverage is their 2^nd best “predictor” in production at the NFL coming from college.  That’s a great sign, plus this kid has confidence and attitude.

2^nd Joshua Jackson (CB – Iowa): if you remember from my last entry, I had Joshua Jackson and Jaire Alexander rated as the top two cornerbacks, respectively.  The fact Gutey was able to get both AND acquire the Saints’ 1^st round pick in 2019 that alone tells me he crushed this draft.  Jackson is a bigger corner that ran slow at the combine, but vastly improved his 40-time at Iowa’s pro day + he may have the best ball skills in the country (remember both pick-6’s vs. Wisconsin at Camp Randall late in the year).

I could comment on the other draft picks, but let’s generalize, shall we?  The Packers drafted a punter, long snapper, 3 fasts wide receivers, a cover ILB (I assume to replace Joe Thomas), and a guard that has the potential to start from the beginning and could make an immediate impact.

Again, to fully analyze the draft, one must wait 3-4 years and look back to see how those players developed and what they became.  However, if given the benefit of hindsight, wouldn’t everyone be amazing?  Had you told me the Green Bay would draft two of the top 3 corners in the draft AND get an additional 1^st round pick in the 2019 draft, I’m not sure how anyone would be upset with that—and that’s where I’m setting my focus.

It’s been some time since I wrote, and it may be a little while until next, but in the meantime hopefully the young kids with some sprinkled veterans on the defense can pick up Pettine’s new scheme and actually have a successful season- for the first time in many.

Draft day is finally upon us—a day that, if you master, you’re almost assured of keeping your job as General Manager.  It’s less risky than building through Free Agency as you’re given a 4-year window to young and constantly improving players while on the cheap vs. paying “already proven” players a high amount then rarely do they produce to the dollar amount they’re receiving.

Why the Draft is Awesome!— I’ve been a big proponent of the Draft & Develop philosophy, mainly because while giving you the best chance to build the best roster over the course of a long time, it also gives you the most lee-way (never know if that’s the correct spelling for that) to make “mistakes.”  Quick example, if you (your team J ) misses on a 1^st round pick, it doesn’t guarantee your team will be stuck.  If your team misses on a big free agent, then you’re almost assured to be hamstrung for the next 2-3 years in the salary cap.  Example, see Justin Harrell…the 16^th overall (Packers 1^st) selection of the 2007 NFL Draft.  He was the epitome of a BUST, however compare that to the Packers signing Joe Johnson (former Saints DE) in 2002 to a 6-year $33M contract—which at the time was monstrous—and he played 11 games over 2 years before Green Bay cut him. That negative return far outweighs the bust of Harrell, not saying it’s OK to pick BUSTS, but the odds of picking a BUST in the 1^st round is less-likely than having a high-priced free agent play to the big contract he receives.  Also, given that the 1^st round selection has the highest chance of turning into something special (vs any other round selection)—the best teams rarely get involved in what former GMs call the “Stupid Money Stage,” the first few days of free agency.

To close, I’m not saying Free Agency should be avoided at all costs, it actually serves a great purpose in building the best roster.  It should be used for fringe guys to fill holes on a roster, for example, last year the Packers signed Jahri Evans to fill in at Right Guard…he started 14 games and rated as average (per Pro Football Focus) as a starter.  That’s what you want from free agency, low-risk, and solid-return.

Ok—onto the 2018 draft…

Rare Air—Packers fans find themselves in rare territory.    A top 20 pick, which since Aaron Rodgers took over as starting QB (2008), has only had once: BJ Raji selected at 9^th overall in the 2009 draft.  Green Bay sits at 14, which should net a high-talent/good player.  It’s also a funny position because in order to move up, you’d likely be moving into the top-10, which would cost a ton, and by trading back, say to the 20’s, may not net you enough in return.  It’s likely the Packers will stay at 14 and hopefully stick with picking the Best Available.  Yes that may seem boring, however that usually the best method in order to building the best football team, but it especially holds true when the Packers have as many holes on the roster as they do…let’s take a look, shall we?

There are a bevy of players the Packers could have fall to them that would look nice wearing Green and Gold.  We know the first 4 selections (in no order of course), so we can take those guys out right away:

1. Saquon Barkley- HB Penn St. (the best player in the draft, in my opinion)
2. Josh Rosen- QB UCLA
3. Sam Darnold- QB USC
4. Josh Allen- QB Wyoming

After those guys, it’s a guess as to who, what, where, and when guys will go.  It’s assumed the best edge-rusher (and some say overall player) in this draft is Bradley Chubb, the standout DE from NC St.  One can almost guarantee he won’t fall to Green Bay at 14, however there’s an obvious need for a pass rush (unless the USC boys play to their contracts—Clay Matthews and Nick Perry).  Aside from Chubb, the list shortens pretty quick, look for the Packers to add a rusher early as it’s an area of need and it’s not a deep draft for those guys—potentials are:

1. Bradly Chubb- DE NC St. (would need to trade up to get him)
2. Marcus Davenport- DE UTSA (this pick screams Ted Thompson)
3. Harold Landry- DE/OLB Boston College (maybe a reach at 14, but would love to either trade back and still get him or ideally pick someone at 14 then trade back up and take him).

Aside from Edge-rusher there are other huge needs on this team, and yet still some have been for years; Secondary.  Even with the signing of Tramon Williams (9^th rated cornerback from 2017 by PFF) and Davon House, the Packers still need a long-term answer to go along with their first selection last year (Kevin King).  It seems that Josh Jones was selected as the replacement for Morgan Burnett—otherwise known as Captain Average.  Jones has sky-high potential and flashed as a rookie, if he can make the jump from year 1 to year 2 like Kenny Clark and Blake Martinez did, then the Packers have found a real playmaker.  The list of corners are deep in this draft and don’t be surprised if new GM Brian Gutekunst picks them early and often.  Here’s a likely list of secondary guys that the Packers could select at 14:

1. Joshua Jackson- CB Iowa
2. Jaire Alexander- CB Louisville
3. Denzel Ward- CB Ohio St.
4. Derwin James- S FSU (the 2^nd best player in this draft, in my opinion)
5. Minkah Fitzpatrick- S Alabama

Those seem to be the obvious and popular guys rumored to be coveted by Gutey, however there’s a chance he could also pick a wideout or even an offensive lineman.  Many may be upset, however there’s a need at each of those positions as well.  If that’s the route Green Bay chooses there is only 1 lineman that comes to mind and a few pass catchers:

1. Quenton Nelson- OG Notre Dame
2. Courtland Sutton- WR SMU
3. James Washington- WR Okla St.
4. Calvin Ridley- WR Alabama

Closing out—General Manager, Brian Gutekunst, finds himself almost in a can’t-lose situation tonight.  If he trades up it’s likely for Bradley Chubb or Derwin James, which would be tough to argue (as of tonight).  If he trades back he’s just adding picks which is rarely the wrong move.  If he selects any of the names I listed, they will certainly fill an immediate and long-term need.  With that, if you’re a junkie as much as I am, you will have fun tonight!

The unofficial kick-off to summer is here…OPENING DAY!!!!!!!  I know I’ve been out of touch lately, especially with anything but the Packers, however it doesn’t mean I care less.  Let’s take a look as to what to expect from the Milwaukee Brewers this year and moving forward!

2017—last year’s “unexpected success” has caused a lot of well-deserved hype leading into the 2018 campaign, but why?  The Brewers finished 86-76 (.531) when many (yours truly included) anticipated a far less winning total heading into the season.  There were many factors that led to this, like the breakout of Chase Anderson—dropping his ERA from 4.39 in 2016 to a suffocating 2.74 in 2017.  Had he pitched in enough games to qualify, that would’ve been good enough for 5^th in the major leagues.

The other breakout star was Travis “Mayor of Ding Dong City” Shaw…the 3B whom was acquired from the Boston Red Sox for pitcher Tyler Thornburg…hit .300 for a majority of the year and was the Crew’s top run producer of a year ago with 101 RBI.  This paired with many other solid performances leads fans and the front-office to believe the likelihood of repeat performances are high.

2018—with that belief comes a more assertive direction, thus the Brewers acquired Christian Yelich in a major trade with the Miami Marlins.  Yelich is one of the premier hitters in the game and the best part about him is everything.  He’s young (26), has quite a bit of experience (5 years), has shown steady improvement each year, has a Gold Glove, is just a great hitter, and is on a very affordable contract ($7m/year).  Include former Brewer, Lorenzo Cain, along with the already crowded Outfield and the Brewers should have one of the top offensive lineups in the majors.

So to recap, the Brewers did not really add pitching, aside from Jhoulys Chacin (who could be sneaky great for Milwaukee), after last year the Brewers finished 9^th in team ERA and 20^th in runs scored.  The offense did falter down the stretch in late August and September last year which ultimately cost them enough games to not make the 1-game wild card (which if they had won they would’ve made the playoffs—that’s a whole ‘nother topic).

Many experts and Vegas are aligned with the Brewers expected win total of anywhere between 85 and 88 wins.  Even though the Brewers have added pieces, big pieces, and won 86 games last year the question poses “Why wouldn’t they be expected to win more?”  With Jimmy Nelson going down and not being available until later this season, as well as the realistic expectations of Chase Anderson not producing like he did last year, it seems like the Crew should be poised to be “in it” leading up to the trade deadline, again, which could make for a fun July and if things fall correctly a really fun fall!

Prediction: 87-75; 2^nd in division

World Series: Cubs > Indians (which would suck for us Brewer fans)

Packers Review— this season certainly didn’t end the way most fans wanted, however the good that came from it could potentially be a change in the General Manager.  My main concern is the new GM, Brian Gutekunst, doesn’t have full authority of what he should have…the entire team.  It’s been well-documented that there’s a new reporting structure with the 3 heads now reporting into President Mark Murphy.  That 3-headed monster is now Mike McCarthy (Head Coach), Brian Gutekunst (General Mgr.), and Russ Ball (EVP- Football Ops, aka Finances).  After all of this, let’s see if Ted Thompson stays with his true passion; scouting.  There are just a lot of things that should make Packer fans hesitant about expecting a ton of change, but at least there was some change…

2017 NFL Review – Well my preseason predictions were WAY off, then again so were most.  I did have the Patriots representing the AFC in the Super Bowl, but winning over the Packers.  I correctly selected 6 playoff teams for a 50% mark, which I guess isn’t bad based on how many new division winners the NFL had this year.  The major one I missed was the eventual Super Bowl champions, Philadelphia Eagles.  The other team that took a jump and established they may be a problem for a few years is the New Orleans Saints.  They had, arguably, one of the best drafts in the last 20-30 years based on rookie production.

The other surprise team was the Jacksonville Jaguars, who had a 10-point lead in the 4^th quarter of the AFC Championship game at Foxboro.  They were led by a stellar defense, that’s young for the most part and extremely talented.  Look for them to play a similar style next year by possessing the ball with rookie standout, Leonard Fournette, and using their amazing cornerbacks to bring pressure and force you into mistakes.  All in all a pretty weird season with major injuries to superstars – not just Aaron Rodgers, but JJ Watt, Odell Beckham Jr., Carson Wentz, and more.

2018 Preview—it’s a safe bet to pencil in New England as a top 2 seed in the AFC, giving them almost a 50% shot at making next year’s Super Bowl.  As for the NFC there are quite a few other teams that could easily make the case as the NFC representative: Philadelphia; Los Angeles; Minnesota; Green Bay; New Orleans; Atlanta.  I’ve crunched some numbers and actually had an interesting topic arise this week locally regarding Aaron Rodgers’ contract status.  Let’s take a look.

With San Francisco locking up Jimmy Garoppolo for an all-time high contract, the question turns to Aaron Rodgers and how much will he garner for an extension?  Jimmy G inked a 5 year $137.5M deal which led to a question, “How much would you pay Aaron Rodgers?”  The other question is, “Can the Packers win while paying Rodgers?”  I thought of looking at it from a different perspective.  Since 1992, the Super Bowl champion has finished the season averaging 9^th in yards and 6^th in points in total defense.  This last year the Eagles ranked 4^th in both categories, where the Patriots finished 29^th and 5^th, respectively in those categories.

For instance, the Packers have ranked (from 2017-2008, in points): 26; 21; 12; 13; 24; 11; 19; 2; 7; 22.  The bigger question is “Do the Packers need a top 10 defense with an all-world QB?”  What we do know is Rodgers hasn’t won without the 2^nd overall defense.  The ultimate question now, Can the Packers construct a Defense good enough to win while paying Aaron Rodgers?  If not, what’s the point?

Something to think about… in the meantime, us true nerds will love the NFL Draft combine and free agency in the coming months.

 

By kickoff Saturday night the Packers were playing meaningless football.  For all intents and purposes, the Packers know what they have in their young players, and it’s becoming more and more evident that Brett Hundley is either incapable of being an average starting quarterback in this league or that the game has passed Mike McCarthy by.  Aside from a questionable pass interference call, the Packers’ defense showed up to the challenge without many of their starters.  As referenced above, we know a few of the young players are good: Kenny Clark.  Actually one of his below average performances as he was pushed a couple times in the run game, but still made plenty of plays stuffing the run and generating a pass rush – he’s going to be fun to watch and a player the Packers should build around.

Review—the Packers actually outgained the Vikings 239 v 236 yards, but the interception in the red zone thrown by Hundley to a double-covered Kendricks was ultimately the deciding factor early in the contest.  The promising thing is that McCarthy actually calls a fairly balanced game when Hundley is behind center, and while there’s no way to figure out how many runs Rodgers checks out of, I’d still love to see a true west coast offense and use the arguably best run-blocking offensive line in the NFL and two newfound rushers (Williams and Jones) to set the tone of the game.  Just think about this….the Packers are able to outrush their opponents and can fall back on the arm of Aaron Rodgers to always be in 2^nd and 3^rd & short situations.  That’s a recipe for ball control, which will keep the defense off the field and can only help.  However, until McCarthy adjusts or there’s a new coach, it’s close to insanity to expect that to change – ultimately relying on #12 to win every game with his right arm and decision-making which isn’t the best plan for any player, Tom Brady included.

Preview – enter the 8-7 Detroit Lions, whom too have nothing to play for.  This is an opportunity to get young players like Michael Clark (#89) and Trevor Davis (#11) 50+ snaps to see what they have.  The Lions rank 13^th in yards, 8^th in points as for offense & 27^th/25^th on defense, respectively.  This could end up being a shootout or a one-sided affair with Matt Stafford loading up on some stats. Hopefully the Packers don’t play their key players as there’s literally no value to do so, and actually helps them in the big picture by losing this game.  Although it’ll be tough for any fan to root against the packers during the game; again even if it’s for the greater good J

Recap—again, whether the Packers decide to cut and move on from Randall Cobb and/or Jordy Nelson, we know what they’re capable of and after signing Davante Adams to a 4-year $58M deal, he’ll be the new #1 (if he wasn’t already) target entering 2018.  Center Corey Linsley too signed a contract extension Saturday afternoon, which means there will be 2 returning starters to the line next year; LT David Bakhtiari being the other.

Hoping for a loss for multiple reasons:

1. Maybe someone will be replaced aside from a special teams coach.
2. Better draft pick.
3. Team is fueled even more from being 7-9? (I’m really stretching here)

Stay tuned for the season recap next week and to begin talking draft prospects!

Packers 21
Lions 34

31-20: now hoping I’m right for the reasons listed above!

The disaster of a season finally came to an end, well at least figuratively.  The Packers still have 2 remaining games to play out.  Hopefully used to get the young players some much-needed snaps.  There are the young players we already know that can contribute: Blake Martinez; Kenny Clark; Jamaal Williams; Aaron Jones.  The unfortunate thing is 1^st pick Kevin King is missing out on reps that could really help him improve for next year and moving forward.

Review—the return of Aaron Rodgers mattered moot.  He showed a couple of plays of why he’s the most-talented QB, but regardless of excuse is also the reason they lost the game.  Those 3 interceptions were absolutely killer and even though the defense held them to 3 points off those interceptions, but the main one was the underthrow to Cobb up the seam that – with a good throw – would’ve been a touchdown.  Either way, the Panthers exposed the Packers with decent mismatches of Christian McCaffery and Greg Olsen.  The Panthers’ DL really didn’t give too many issues to the Packers, however the main point of frustration for many was the lack of rushing attempts in the game by Green Bay.  19 total attempts, but 6 by the quarterback leaving 13 rush attempts by the Packers’ Williams and Jones.  Jones showed extreme production in his limited carries (3 carries for 47 yards) and Williams was doing an OK job of wearing down the Panthers’ D (10 carries for 30 yards), but McCarthy either didn’t call enough runs or Rodgers checked out of a bunch (essentially every quick pass outside was a RPO – run/pass option).

The Packers’ playoff hoped went down the toilet when Matt Bryant’s kick split the uprights on Monday night as time expired in Tampa Bay.  Now, the Packers find themselves in a position they haven’t been in since 2008, when they finished 6-10 (Aaron Rodgers’ first year starting) and missed the playoffs.  They can use this as a progression/growth period for the youth of this team and have some key development reps.

Preview—the Vikings hold the 2 seed and are pretty locked in for that.  They’ll be looking to win this game from a rivalry standpoint, mainly because I think they care about that since it’s been one-sided.  While holding the overall record of match-up is fun and not losing at home is key, it’s likely a good thing if the Packers lose – better draft pick status, change could result (someone gets fired, maybe?), and there will be additional hunger if the Green Bay finishes 7-9 v 9-7.  Either way, during the game I’ll be rooting for the Packers to win, but if they don’t it may actually be a good thing.

Players to watch—every rookie & Brett Hundley.  Josh Jones could be used, learn, and get quite a bit better in these final two games in preparation for 2018.

Vikings 27
Packers 17

30-20: again, I’m kind of hoping I’m right in the prediction of losses these final two games, but we’ll see.

Wrong again!  Well Brett Hundley may not be good, but he’s certainly clutch.  Even though it’s against bad teams he kept the Packers in the playoff race.  With the return of Aaron Rodgers, the Packers find themselves needing to win their remaining 3 games (5 total including Tampa Bay and Cleveland) to go 10-6 to just give them a chance to make the postseason.  Let’s recap and move on!

Review—the coaching staff was out-schemed coming out of the half, but made up for that by outplaying/planning Cleveland in the 4^th quarter and overtime.  Mike Daniels continued to his consistent play, but with the return of fellow interior lineman Kenny Clark, the defensive line should’ve produced better v Cle’s rush game.  The Packers surrendered 136 yards on the ground, giving up 5 yards/rush, which is horrible.  The Packers secondary, highlighted by Josh Jones’ OT interception, played improved in the 4^th quarter and OT after making DeShone Kizer look like Tom Brady in the 1^st half.  All in all, it was a team win that needed extra time to beat the worst team in the NFL.  Moving on…

Preview—ahh the fun part of crunching #s.  This might get a little geeky or allow a peak into my true interest of looking at, what many may think is, worthless stats.  So here we go…

	GB	Car
Off y/p	25th/17th	18th/14th
Def y/p	26th/19th	5th/10th
T/O (rank)	7	(4)

As you can see, the Panthers have a better offense and a top 10 defense.  I’ve also looked into their 4 losses on the season.  Carolina has lost to the Saints twice, Eagles, and the Bears…yep, Chicago.  The common theme for these losses is Carolina gained 300 total yards of offense once in those losses (305 v Phi in week 6).  Since all of my arguments with my close group of texting friends comes to points (as for defensive ranks), that’s what I’ll use.

• Week 3 v New Orleans (11^th ranked D): 288 yards and -3 t/o differential
• Week 6 v Philadelphia (5^th ranked D): 305 yards and -2 t/o differential
• Week 7 @ Chicago (14^th ranked D): 293 yards, -3 t/o differential
• Week 13 @ New Orleans (11^th D): 279 yards, 0 t/o differential

As you can see, aside from their last loss 2 weeks ago in New Orleans, the Panthers turned the ball over 2+ times more than their opponent.  A pretty good indicator for the Packers in order to win today.  The Packers (as you can see on the chart above) hold the 19^th ranked defense, giving up 23.2 points/game.  Meanwhile the Panthers are ranked 14^th in offensive points, scoring an average of 23.1 points/game.  If the Packers can win the turnover margin by 2 and hold Carolina to 23 points or less, one would have to think that should be enough to give an Aaron Rodgers-led offense (with a newfound rushing attack) to score 24+.

Let’s look at this way, the Packers were scoring an average of 27.4 points/game with Rodgers as quarterback v defenses that averaged 12.2 in ranking.  With just basic numbers the Packers with Rodgers should score 26+ v Carolina who possesses the 10^th ranked defense.  Adversely, the Panthers are putting up 23.1 points/game v an averaged ranked D of 14.9 (opponents played so far).  The basic numbers show that the Panthers likely will score a tad more than their avg.  So apparently the Packers should win 26 to 24…then again, if it were that easy, wouldn’t everyone look at it this way?

As for ProFootballFocus ratings, I looked at all the starters for each team and their respective rankings on the season.  Carolina brings 8 players with an 80 rating or better on the season compared to the Packers who have 10.  The major difference?  The Panthers have two players ranking in the 90’s: DT Kaiwan Short (90.2); Luke Kuechly (94.6).  Both are premier players in the NFL and is the reason I believe the Packers need to establish the run game and KEEP WITH IT!  Even with Rodgers back, he could be devastating with a great ground game and the play-action pass, almost impossible to stop.

Matchup Nightmare? – my cousin brought up a good point earlier this week…”Who will cover McCaffery?”  He brings up a good point, for those that don’t know, Christian McCaffery is the very talented rookie HB from Stanford, son of Ed McCaffery (one of Elway’s favorite targets from the 90’s Broncos) and little brother of Packers wide receiver, Max.  Christian McCaffery (82.1 pff rating) has amassed 838 total yards and 6 TDs this season, while not being the premier back (splits time with Jonathan Stewart).  #22 could pose major problems for the Packers’ defense…just think when McCarthy would bring Cobb, Adams, and Monty out of the backfield.  It poses such a matchup problem because their usually more athletic and faster than a linebacker and bigger/stronger than a defensive back, however I think the Packers have the perfect weapon to shadow him: Josh Jones (my man!).  Jones is bigger, faster, and stronger than McCaffery…but McCaffery is a bright young player that knows how to use leverage and produce.  I’ll be keeping my eye on him and how Capers defends him, as well as the Packers’ DL (Clark and Daniels) v Carolina’s OL.

In a weird year for the NFL, the Packers may actually have a shot, but they need to win this game (just like all the rest).

Packers 27
Panthers 23

30-19: Hopefully I get on the correct-predicting trend here!