New Year, Same Results?

Both teams expected last season to end far better than it did.

Green Bay was marred by injuries, which completely derailed its season and likely contributed to several late-game collapses. Minnesota entered the year coming off a 14–3 season in 2024, but its decision to let Sam Darnold walk and commit to J.J. McCarthy did not pay off. The Vikings finished 28th in total offense and 26th in scoring.

Minnesota’s defense remained its strength, finishing third in yards allowed and seventh in scoring. Once again, the whole was greater than the sum of its parts—a credit to defensive coordinator Brian Flores.

The biggest question in Minnesota is whether acquiring Kyler Murray was the right decision—and whether he is the quarterback who can right the ship (pun intended).

As for Green Bay, the Packers appear to have been stuck in neutral since the 2023 season. They have earned the No. 7 seed in each of Jordan Love’s seasons as the starter, producing only one playoff victory during that span. It is officially put-up-or-shut-up time at 1265 Lombardi Avenue.

New defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon has his work cut out for him. Fan favorite Jeff Hafley vacated the position to become the Miami Dolphins’ head coach, and Gannon will begin the season without Micah Parsons for approximately four to five games.

As I covered in my previous post, Green Bay’s cornerback room is already a major concern. Couple that with the loss of its best pass rusher, and the first quarter of the season could be difficult for the Packers’ defense.

If Green Bay can remain competitive until Parsons returns—and stay healthy afterward—the Packers should have a chance to make the playoffs. Whether they can finally advance beyond the Wild Card round is another question.

How Do These Teams Matchup?

Minnesota’s defense ranked third in yards allowed and seventh in scoring last season. Green Bay’s offense finished 15th and 16th in those categories, respectively. That is the matchup to watch—and the one most likely to determine the outcome.

A season ago, the Vikings surrendered 20 or fewer points in nine of their 17 games.

Love and the Packers must play efficiently and protect the football—which, admittedly, could be said about almost any team in any game.

In Love’s lone appearance against Minnesota last season, he was efficient enough, but Green Bay’s defense—and J.J. McCarthy’s performance—ultimately won the game for the Packers. It would be dangerous to expect the same result this time. Parsons, the leader of Green Bay’s defense, will be unavailable, while McCarthy will no longer be Minnesota’s quarterback.

On the other side of the ball, Minnesota’s new quarterback faces a familiar opponent. Kyler Murray will go against Jonathan Gannon, his former head coach in Arizona. Perhaps Gannon can use what he learned from their time together to exploit some of Murray’s tendencies. It is another storyline worth watching.

Remember: Week 1 Can Be an Anomaly

The first week of the season is rarely a reliable indicator of what a team will become.

As I have covered in previous entries, good teams can look awful in Week 1 and still recover. If Green Bay gets blown out—or vice versa—it will not necessarily indicate how either team will perform throughout the season.

In a league built on overreaction, Week 1 is the ultimate catalyst for hot takes—possibly including mine.

Prediction

This game comes back to Green Bay’s offense against Minnesota’s defense.

If one of the Packers’ biggest unknowns—the offensive line—can hold up in pass protection and consistently create running lanes, Green Bay should win. Until that unit proves itself, however, I cannot confidently expect it to overcome all the turnover and inconsistency along the line.

Minnesota 23, Green Bay 20

Pick: Minnesota -1.5