March 27, 2019 at 7:41am CST—the Milwaukee Bucks currently hold the NBA’s best record, by 4 games, with six to play.  Essentially the realization the Bucks will finish with the best record ensuring home-court advantage throughout the entire playoffs is upon us.

For those that follow, you’re aware I don’t often write about the Bucks, however I’ve been a fan since I was a child, have attended games annually, and figured with their deserved attention that it would make sense to offer a perspective to some that may or may not be seeking it…if that makes sense.

The Bucks came into the 2018/2019 campaign with the goal in mind to Win a Playoff Series.  However, with what’s transpired 76 games into the season, they’re (on paper) clearly the best team in the Association and have the best player (Giannis Antetokounmpo), the expectations have shifted…or have they?  At this point, with what the Bucks have shown, wouldn’t it feel like a downer if the Bucks don’t win the NBA Finals?

I’m all about winning championships, but even I can understand if the Bucks lose a series in the Finals to the well-experienced (and arguably one of the all-time great 5-year franchise runs) Warriors team.  Even then, like the Brewers last year, many enjoyed the ride, if the Bucks find themselves with home court advantage in the Eastern Conference Finals, or NBA Finals, and not capitalizing on that would seem like blowing an opportunity that they may not have again…then again, with Giannis, who knows?  That kid is special beyond talent.

Regardless, expect the Bucks to be favored in each series they play in the Playoffs, and expect them to win it.

Much goings on for Wisconsin sports fans as of March 26^th, 2019.  The Packers had quite the activity in free agency, the Bucks continue their dominance of the NBA, and the Brewers are ramping up to take the next step and win the World Series.  Let’s break this down in a 3-day look, shall we?

Today let’s take a look at the Green Bay Packers.  Coming off an awful season (record-wise, but the changes came as a result, so look at it as an investment), the Packers have essentially rebuilt the entire organization, top to bottom, except for the QB position.  They invested more years and money into Aaron Rodgers, meaning:

1. Gutekunst and the Packers brass were either too scared to send him off and complete the full on rebuild OR…
2. Gutekunst and the rest believe they can rebuild around #12 to get back to the playoffs (which I believe is their ultimate goal, back to consistent playoff appearances) which gives them a “chance” at winning it all.

Either way, it’s better than changing nothing, so it’s a major step in the right direction.

Many fans are sad to see Clay Matthews and Randall Cobb leave, along with having an opportunity to resign Jordy Nelson since Oakland cut him…I get the fondness of fans wanting to bring back and/or keep fan-favorite players, however those 3 were not contributing to the improvement of the team, but more so kept Green Bay at a level to not fall below the line to where they’ve recently gone, missing the playoffs.  Either way, each guy seemed great, weren’t a distraction, however cost quite a bit of money and has since been replaced with younger, and likely improving players at their positions.  Again, it’s a change in the proper direction.

Free Agency—well for those who wanted to build through free agency, here you go.  I like Free Agency, in the NFL, for filling some holes and adding depth vs. filling needs where you need key players.  Main reason is free agency rarely works out for those big contracts.  The Packers invested in 4 free agents last year, two returning to their initial teams (House and Tramon), and none made an impact. Actually all could be considered a waste, so 0-for-4.  *ProFootballFocus ratings, rankings*

• Davon House, 28.8 (unranked, injured)
• Tramon Williams, 68.0 (67^th Safety)
• Muhammad Wilkerson, 76.5 (unranked, injured)
• Jimmy Graham, 59.4 (48^th TE)

As you can see, not that ProFootballFocus is the end all be all, but it does at least show a consistent grade to quantify the value of players in addition to looking at their stats.  Regardless, if you watched Packer games closely, or even more than once, you would know these players didn’t contribute much to the season, especially to their contracts.

Brian Gutekunst is doubling down, in a sense, on free agency, in hopes these “proven” players add value and aren’t finished improving.  It’s a dangerous game, then again without taking risks, there’s no real expectation to win.  Let’s take a look at the incoming FAs:

• Za’Darius Smith, 71.7 (33^rd Edge-rusher)
• Preston Smith, 76.9 (19^th Edge-rusher)
• Adrian Amos, 82.7 (8^th Safety)
• Billy Turner, 62.8 (33^rd Guard)

Just from an incoming standpoint coming off their 2018 campaigns, each of these players should increase production at areas of need, which (on paper) allows the Packers to attack the draft, properly; drafting best player available.

Since we have a month until the Draft, I’ll cover potential targets closer to the date (Thu, April 25^th).  In the meantime, keep in mind the Packers essentially went through a rebuild at almost every area, and replaced older players with youth and improving talent, aside from the QB position, which they’re obviously married to, based on their actions.

Well, the best continue to prove why, well, they’re the best.  Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck were both on display on the biggest stage and out-shined their opponents in every aspect.  Belicheck held the 2^nd best offense to 3 points, while Brady out-dueled the youngster, Goff, especially in crunch time.  Many will say that Brady is the Luckiest Athlete Ever, however winning 1 Super Bowl takes luck, 2 shows you have a knack of knowing how to win—winning 6?  Yeah, you’re the best ever, it’s not a conversation.  Goff missed a wide open WR (Cooks) in the 4^th quarter for a potential TD, which would’ve tied the game. Then threw just an awful interception on a ball that should’ve never been thrown.  Meanwhile, when needed, Brady delivered a perfect throw to Rob Gronkowski to essentially seal his 6^th Lombardi trophy.

For everyone that hates the Patriots, trust me, it’s much easier (and better) if you just accept their greatness.  It’s likely something we’ll never see again in sports in our lifetime.  In the meantime, how can the Packers become a dynasty (3 rings in 5 years)?  Well, it starts with cutting the fat on the roster (Nick Perry, Randall Cobb, Clay Matthews, etc.) and absolutely killing this draft.

Because the Packers traded back with New Orleans, they now hold 3 draft picks in the first 44 selections.  That’s a great opportunity to have a draft like the Indianapolis Colts did in 2018 (1^st pick G Quinten Nelson, 2^nd pick Darius Leonard, DROY) which propelled them to a 10-6 record, along with a new coach after going 4-12 last year—the Colts got a new head coach, their old QB back, and an influx of young solid talent through the draft.  The year prior, the Saints also had arguably the best draft ever, which catapulted them into the playoffs after three consecutive years of 7-9.  However, the goal is to win 3 super bowls by the end of the 2023 season—in order for that to take place, the defense needs to show improvement and Aaron Rodgers must outplay his counterpart in the postseason, just as he did in each game in the 2010 run.

Have fun watching the Bucks as they’re the best team in the NBA and they just added to their arsenal without giving up much.  I’ll be off until March (combine/draft lookout time), thanks again for keeping along with me throughout these weeks!

The Big Game is upon us—the biggest single world-wide event, The Super Bowl.  This is the 53^rd installment, pitting the team that’s increased their leading appearances (this will be their 11^th), with the Rams appearing in their 4^th appearance.  If you’ve watched any pregame, or have paid attention you’d know this is the matchup of Elder vs. Wunderkind.  While it’s been covered at nausea, it’s accurate.  McVay, since taking over as LA’s Head Coach in 2017, has been the darling of the NFL and has proven to get the most out of his team.  Belichick, as always, has his team playing their best football at the best time.

Why you should root for New England—No one will catch Brady and his 5 (6 if they win today) rings, so what does it really matter if the best adds yet another one?  Nothing, nothing changes.  Also, it would hold the Rams to just 1 Super Bowl title in 4 appearances (3 since 1992).  If the Rams win, they would be yet another team to equal the Packers, furthering many fans’ perspectives of the Packers “great success.”

Why you should root for Los Angeles—the Rams and Packers are built similarly in the essence that they have a young innovative head coach, a true west coast quarterback, decent weapons on offense, and threatening HB, and the defense is built around a great talent at the D-line.  The Rams never really seemed to have all that talent until McVay arrived and they acquired a few pieces (Suh, Peters, and Talib) that are good enough to be 20^th in the NFL in points given up, which the Packers currently show to have a better defense.  So if the Rams can win, it should give hope (legitimate hope with thinking involved not just blind fandom) to Packer nation they can quickly right the ship and return to championship caliber.

Matchup—there was a matchup stat posted on NFL Network that showed McDaniels’ offenses vs. Wade Phillips’ defenses, with McDaniels getting the better of him 7 of 9 times and scoring over 29 points/game.  While I believe that’s a large enough sample size, it shouldn’t be the only indicator for what will happen in this game.

Pats’ Offense vs Rams’ Defense: 4^th (27.2 pts/gm) vs 20^th (24.0 pts/gm).  Edge goes to the Patriots for many reasons.  Mainly Tom Brady, but NE also is the best at attacking an opposing team’s weakness instead of playing to their own strength.  Expect to see many looks, but be surprised by nothing.  The Pats could open the game with 5-wide, no huddle (i.e. see the Packer game) to build a lead, or they could go heavy and establish the run with a ton of their running backs.

Pats’ Defense vs Rams’ Offense: 7^th (20.3 pts/gm) vs 2^nd (32.9 pts/gm).  Advantage Rams, however I believe it’ll be a slighter edge than the amount NE will have over them on the other side of the ball.  Expect a high-scoring game, after feeling each other out a bit, I think it’ll be a well-executed offensive game.  (Take the over).

Patriots 31
Rams 27

With the coaching staff finally taking shape, this is a very interesting time to be a Packers fan, as there has been major change across the organization, essentially conducting a full rebuild- sans quarterback.  As stated earlier in other blogs, LaFleur will bring a fresh look and hopefully get Rodgers to perform to his contract, and ultimately win games and Super Bowls…plural.

He brings in Nathaniel Hackett, former Offensive Coordinator from the Jacksonville Jaguars, with both LaFleur and Hackett bringing a much-needed focus on the run game.  The Packers will need to address the offensive line, and add a solid Tight End- assuming they don’t keep Mercedes Lewis, who called out Aaron Rodgers for changing plays in the huddle, my guess is HE GONE!

Since the Super Bowl isn’t until the following week, and a majority of the week has been taken over by the blown non-PI call in the NFC title game…AND the laughable argument about OT rules for not allowing Mahommes to “get a chance” in OT—let’s dive a little into the State of the Packers.

The major topic for Packer fans should be turned to 4 players currently on the roster with decisions to be made…

Clay Matthews, Nick Perry, Randall Cobb, and Jimmy Graham.  Considering the contracts for each (Cobb’s and Matthews’ are expired) it would make sense to cut ties with all 4, it’d also make sense to bring back Matthews and/or Cobb considering they actually bring SOME value whereas Nick Perry is straight up garbage.  Listening to a podcaster from Cheesehead TV earlier this week, had made mention about how Nick Perry is the worst player on the Packers.  Essentially he contributed nothing on any play, and since his contract year where he registered 12 sacks (including playoffs) in 2016, he’s done nothing…I wish there were another word to use, but that’s it!  Also, those 12 sacks came against $hit Tackles, left alone, or was pushed into the QB…just cut him and save the…oh wait, they can’t, his cap hit is too much, but after 2019 he will be gone and only eat $7ishM.

Randall Cobb—the influx of youth at the WR position last year pretty much forced the hand here, however the position altogether is quite interesting.

• Davante Adams = stud.
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling = promising.
• J’Mon Moore = incomplete (that’s on the coaches, this was the year to find out, b/c the Packers never were winning the Super Bowl anyway).
• Equanimeous St. Brown = high ceiling.
• Trevor Davis = return man, that’s it. He’s also not great at it so he better be gone.
• Geronimo Allison = Rodgers seems to like him, and he’s shown to know the playbook and be where he’s supposed to be, a nice 4^th
• Jake Kumerow = great story, good blood line, likely worth a shot at making the team next year

Does this leave room for Cobb to return?  If it were my call, no. Just save the $, go with youth—isn’t the plan from this new coaching staff to correct the QB?  If the QB is so great shouldn’t it be enough to have these WRs who likely will continue to improve?  Yes is the answer if you’re struggling with those questions.

Clay Matthews—likely have to bring him back, on a much lower contract, but this team has zero depth at Edge Rusher and while he’s not productive (nowhere near his first 5-6 years in the league) he still knows where to be, hustles, sets a great example, and makes some plays from time to time at the line of scrimmage.

Jimmy Graham—C YA!  I can’t think of any reason to bring him back.  Both of Rodgers’ interceptions this year came throwing to Graham over the middle, which is where he should dominate, and since he can’t get open because he’s slower than I am he should be able to outjump guys for the ball—nope.  To borrow one of my cousin’s favorite phrases he’s a true “slug, just straight garbage.”

So there ya have it, something to chew on until next week’s Super Bowl preview.

Entering Championship Sunday, much is made about the makeup of the NFL’s Final Four.  That’s the trend though, every year in every sport.  Everything is Copy-Cat—because that’s what’s worked.  It even made a strong appearance in head coaching hires (Packers included) with the hot trend being a Sean McVay-type, young and innovative.  However, the phrase “Defense wins championships” has always rung true to me with the idea that when looking at champions, it’s usually the defense that wins in the playoffs.  Yet we judge Quarterbacks by championships (at least I do) because they’re the constant as no one team can keep the same 11 defenders for the same stretch as they can 1 QB, although maybe they should.  Let’s look at the make-up of each team, shall we?

Team	Off. Rank	Def. rank
Chiefs	1st	24th
Rams	2nd	20th
Saints	3rd	14th
Patriots	4th	7th

Obviously this shows the top 4 scoring teams in the NFL this year are in the Championship games for their respective conferences.  While that doesn’t jive with the “Defense Wins Championships” slogan, what it does show is offense does win games in the regular season and home field advantage is so paramount in the playoffs.  While defenses “travel” (meaning they don’t get hot at the right time, they’re just good), home field advantage has been the better indicator of whom advances in the postseason, especially those teams that have a 1^st round bye.  Since the 2013 season, every Super Bowl participant will have had a 1^st round bye, and all would have been the 1 seed except for the 2016 Falcons.  While anything can happen, and any team can beat another, of course, recent odds/trends show that the home teams will prevail on Championship Sunday- which would make many fans happy, considering the Patriots actually did not earn the 1 seed this year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Following that trend, let’s take a look at those Super Bowl Matchups:

Super Bowl		Off	Def
LII	Patriots	2	5
	Eagles	3	4
LI	Patriots	3	1
	Falcons	1	27
50	Broncos	19	4
	Panthers	1	6
XLIX	Patriots	4	8
	Seahawks	10	1
XLVII	Broncos	1	22
	Seahawks	8	1

As you can see by the graph above, the better ranked defense bested the opposition in 4 of the last 5 Super Bowl matchups.  So it’s safe to say, the best way to win the Super Bowl is to have the 1 seed and to have the better ranked defense in the Super Bowl…or Tom Brady, whatever is easier.

For the interest in most of the people reading this (if you still are), where does that leave the Packers?  We’ll take a closer look come Super Bowl week.

In the meantime, hopefully these should be some great games!

The (almost) full rebuild of the Green Bay Packers is complete!  Yes, you read that correctly.  The Packers have essentially gone through a full rebuild in the last 15 months, but have gone about it rather quietly while saying (and fake-showing) they’ve been “going for it.”  They removed Ted Thompson as GM, fired Mike McCarthy from Head Coach, traded players (Haha Clinton-Dix and Ty Montgomery) to ensure draft picks on guys they likely weren’t resigning and have changed their philosophy on building a roster.  The weird part, and why the media keeps asking, is the hierarchy structure in place my President Mark Murphy.

It feels as though the Board of Directors is getting a bit impatient with the Packers and not winning championships, even though they’re printing money, and Murphy seems to be acting out of desperation (usually not a good idea) by taking control of as much as he can, even down to hiring the Head Coach…what’s next, inputting stock on draft picks?  It begs the question, because meddling owners don’t win.  Unless you’re George Steinbrenner and you just pay for talent with blank checks, which even that’s gone by the wayside a bit in baseball.

So here we are, Matt LeFleur, the 15^th head coach in Packer history.  He comes with a fairly impressive resume, and an image that the ladies will like.  However, what does this all mean?  Can the Packers win a Super Bowl with Rodgers still at Quarterback?  Possibly, it’ll take a solid draft (or 2), plus the defense to continue to grow under Mike Pettine—whom I believe will keep his job, which might’ve been part of the requirement for the next head coach.  The fun part, is even for fans like me, realists???, this should be somewhat of an exciting time because it’s change.  Nothing had changed for a while, yet the results were still the same, odd ehh?  If you’d like a deep dive into LeFeur’s history, we can go that route, but that may be better saved for post-draft, which will be absolutely essential (aren’t’ they all?) if the Packers have plans on winning a Super Bowl in the next 2 seasons.

That brings me to the whole Expectations item.  Normally I’m the guy with “If you have Aaron Rodgers, and he’s so good, you should win the Super Bowl.”  While true, if he’s that good, which is a whole other topic…but I believe the goal now, with LeFleur having a 4-year deal (5^th year option) and Rodgers having 5 years left on his contract, what is the new goal for that window?

2 Super Bowl wins?  I’d argue that’s the minimum, let’s not even bring into account trying to make up for lost opportunities…

There should be concern amongst Packer nation that their beloved quarterback has manipulated the organization…again.  The Packers somehow came out roses last time due to Ted Thompson having the wherewithal to draft Aaron Rodgers when 23 other teams decided against it, however he seems to now be the issue—potentially.  Before coming at me (if you have the passion/desire to do so, which would be fun!) let’s take a look at where the Packers sit.

Their tight end, Mercedes Lewis, said last night (or earlier this morning) that Aaron Rodgers would disregard McCarthy’s plays and just run his own, that there was a dysfunction unlike anything he’s ever seen.  And he played for Jacksonville for 12 years…that has me thinking a few things.

Did Rodgers sabotage Mike McCarthy?  Does he think he can run a better offense from the field?  Will the next coach be able to reign him in?  Will the next coach want to?

These are the things swirling through my mind as the Packers continue their search for their 15^th head coach (16^th if you include Philbin, which I don’t think you do).  After going 6-9-1, which Rodgers started all 16 games and while his stats will say he wasn’t the issue, this was a majority of his mess—the Packers will need to find the best possible coach for them, hit on multiple draft picks AND have quite a few players make the jump from rookies to year 2 (*cough cough Josh Jackson).

It’ll be interesting to see, but this whole thing with Rodgers seeming to have sabotaged the Packers doesn’t sit well with me, ‘nor should it you.  Think, honestly tell yourself, if this were any other player on the Packers would you feel the same?

Just a thought.  Thanks for reading.

Finished 43-25…just for score-keeping 🙂

Review—this is the Packers offense many of us have been expecting.  However, it took a coaching change, the season being a complete failure, solid December weather, and an awful Jets team to get it…the sad part is it’s better than being shut down by said team.

Rodgers was productive, but still showed carelessness/laziness at times—all that matters is production, and he produced 44 points.  It’s no doubt that Davante Adams is a stud, no need to elaborate.  The rookie WRs need more snaps.  Been clamoring for this for a while, but J’Mon Moore (#82), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (#83), and Equanimeous St. Brown (#19), along with Jake Kumerow (#16) should get all of the playing time possible with Rodgers.  They each bring something to the table and the Packers need at least 2 of those guys to be solid if they plan on doing anything moving forward.

The defense…well, the top 3 defensive linemen were out (Clark, Daniels, and Wilkerson) and who knows if Wilkerson will return next year, but he could add depth.  To borrow my cousin’s phrase, the safeties are just a bunch of Slugs, and it’s very apparent Josh Jones continues to need snaps as he can only improve while having a ton of physical talent.

Preview—Detroit and Green Bay are locked in their respective positions as far as division goes.  The Lions will finish last (4^th) while the Packers will finish 3^rd.  Which means Green Bay will face the NFC South 3^rd place finisher (Carolina, Atlanta, or Tampa Bay) at home, and the NFC West 3^rd place finisher on the road (San Francisco or Arizona).  Along with that, the Packers are locked into drafting anywhere from 10^th to 17^th.  Keep in mind the Packers hold New Orleans’ 1^st round pick, which is no worse than 26^th, or better if you look at it like that.  So the Packers will have 2 picks, first from 10^th-17^th, and their 2^nd anywhere between 26^th-32^nd in the first round in April’s draft.

As for the Lions, they bring the 26^th ranked offense (19.5 points/game) and the 19^th ranked defense (24.0 points/game).  The Packers matchup fairly well, especially coming off a 44-point performance vs another bad team.  The Packers rank 12^th and 22^nd, respectively and will look to add to those totals and likely increase their offensive output, while likely worsening their defensive rank.

Overall—there will be a season recap later, however for what it’s worth there’s a winner of this game that needs picking, or at least hopefully.

Lions 17
Packers 34

43-24 overall record.  Likely moving to 44-24…interesting offseason, that’s certain.

Review—finally the Packers are officially eliminated from the playoffs and the fans that were holding on to hope, can shift their focus to the draft and next year.  The Bears played an OK game, which proved enough to beat Green Bay’s best shot.  We learned that Matt Nagy (Chicago’s head coach) loves to be the smartest guy in the room, and that will cost the Bears against a good team.  The Packers got away from running Aaron Jones due to not having 3 starting offensive linemen, so needing Jamaal Williams to help with pass protection vs Khalil Mack and the Bears’ pass rush, instead of running the ball with a very effective Halfback….yeah, read that again.

The Bears clinched the division and they celebrated like the Cubs won the World Series, but now Packer fans are left feuding with one another about “who’s a True Fan?” which some people are taking issue with Cheeseheads wanting their beloved Packers to lose their final 2 games.

Green Bay has an opportunity to vastly improve the situation next year by playing as many rookies and young players regular season game action, and if they lose both of their remaining games while getting some help (bad teams “behind” them winning) could move up the draft order from their current spot; 11^th.

Preview—enter one of those teams “ahead” of the Packers, the New York Jets.  The Jets currently sit at 4-10 and the 4^th overall pick.  It would behoove each of these teams to lose, so as you can tell the “hype” for this game should be as low as possible.

The Jets don’t have much talent, none on offense, but feature one of the best young defenders in Jamal Adams.  He’s the 6^th overall pick from last year’s draft (2017) from LSU, wears #33 and a bunch of sweatbands…oh, and he’s also really good.  While watching him, think he’s the type of player that the Packers could draft next year and immediately help, IF they can crack into the top 10 in the draft.

Prediction—these are 2 bad teams, the Jets rank 24^th in points scored and points allowed, whereas the Packers rank 16^th offensively and 17^th defensively.  Green Bay has quite a bit more talent which I believe will be the difference-maker…

Packers 31
Jets 17

42-24