Review ~ there’s not much else other than that, outcoached and out-executed.  It’s been documented that Mike Pettine’s defensive scheme (from the Rex Ryan philosophy) is to limit big plays, which typically come from the passing game.  In order to do that, a defense needs to have a good secondary and a legitimate pass rush.  The Packers possess both, however the trade-off is giving up yards on the ground.

The idea behind it, is Pettine is betting the opponent won’t commit to the run for the entire game, thus needing to stack four to five 10-play + drives to score over 20 points.  Credit Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz for sticking to the plan AND executing it about as well as possible…and even then, the Packers had the ball with a chance to tie AFTER Rodgers was strip-sacked essentially giving all momentum to Philadelphia.  How’s that for an optimistic point of view?

Through the ¼ mark of the season, the Packers rank, defensively, 10^th in yards and 7^th in points given up.  That is a solid trend, and 57% of their yards given up are through the air, meaning the opponents have been playing into Pettine’s plan of trying to beat Green Bay with the pass.  This is where sacks and interceptions occur, makes sense.  The one opponent that kept to the ground and actually had more rush yards than pass yards was Philadelphia…

Preview ~ now enter the Dallas Cowboys, possibly the best team in the NFC, well at least that’s what most think.  To use the NCAA football term- strength of schedule– I believe the Cowboys rank dead last.  The only opponent they’ve faced of any quality held their “high-powered” offense to 10 points on 257 yards while committing 3 turnovers.  The Packers may be able to emulate what the Saints’ defense did to Dallas, however that will commit to stopping the ground game, which is Dallas’ strength.  New Orleans was also able to execute this due to having 36 minutes of possession, thus keeping the ball away from Zeke.  The Cowboys rushed 20 times for 45 yards- they cannot win with a 2.3 yard average.  Should the Packers hold Dallas under 4 yards/carry, it should result in victory.

 

Team	Offense			Defense
	Yards (rank)	Points (rank)		Yards (rank)	Points (rank)
Packers	337.8 (20)	21.2 (17)		330.2 (10)	17.2 (7)
Cowboys	425.2 (3)	26.8 (8)		318.5 (7)	14.0 (3)

As you can see Dallas is one of the elite teams in the NFL, based on rankings alone.  However, they’ve faced the Giants (terrible until they started Daniel Jones), Redskins, and Dolphins prior to finally seeing legitimate competition in New Orleans—and even then, they faced backup QB Teddy Bridgewater and LOST.  So there’s hope that Dallas isn’t as formidable an opponent as initially thought.

With that, their OL is still incredible and they do love to run the ball because in a big game Dak has yet to win them a game (sure, they beat Seattle in the playoffs last year, but let’s not get started on Russell Wilson and how overrated he is).  I can see victory, but don’t think it will happen.  GO PACK GO!!!

Packers 23
Cowboys 24

Season: 2-2
Overall: 45-27

With a quick turnaround, at home, the advantage completely falls onto the Packers’ side.  The main reason I picked against Green Bay in week 1 is travelling to a good team, on the road, in primetime is a recipe for disaster…add on short rest and it spells even a worse outcome…usually.  This is a good opponent, quality that’s struggling, to gear up for long rest before heading to Dallas to face the best team in the NFC…arguably.

Recap~ Turnovers.  That is all.  That was the difference in this game.  The Packers forced and capitalized on 3 turnovers.  The biggest coming on the 3^rd play of the 2^nd half, Jaire Alexander snatched the ball from rookie TE Noah Fant (the tight end I would’ve been happy taking in this past year’s draft).  From there the Packers took four plays to punch it in the end zone and assume control of the game.  Otherwise it seemed the Packers were in decent control and should win, but it was a 7 point game and the Broncos driving.  The biggest issue coming away from the game was time of possession.  The turnovers were the ultimate equalizer, but the Packers only had 41% time of possession.  Coming up on a short week, that’s a bit scary.

Preview~ like the previous 2 games, the Packers improved a bit from the game prior on offense, while the defense essentially controlled the entire game AND closed it out.  Again refreshing, and yet again another opponent with a better QB than the week before (although there may not be a difference between Mitch and Cousins).  Carson Wentz has all of the tools and demeanor to come into Lambeau on a wild primtime night and get a victory.  Here’s why that could happen.

• Philadelphia won the Super Bowl in 2017 and maintains much of that roster.
• Head Coach (and former Packers backup QB) Doug Pederson isn’t afraid to take risks.
• They have an all-world defender in Fletcher Cox, on the D-line that gives everyone problems.—However, he’s been almost non-existent this season.
• They’re pissed coming off a home loss to the Detroit Lions where Patricia’s defense held on at the end of the game.

Now that we’ve covered the major topics, the Packers open up as favorites (as they should) and the injury situation isn’t nearly as bad as recent years, Green Bay should be in the driver’s seat all game and pull out the victory.  To expect the defense to hold the Eagles to < 20 points may be a bit aggressive, defenses usually are gassed on short rest.  The flip side to that is the Packers offense may finally crack the 30 point mark for the first time this season, and they may have to in order to win this game.

Look for Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams to get a decent amount of work- at least let’s hope they combine for > 22 carries like they did last week.  Jones was stymied pretty much all day, even the 2 TDs he scored he had to work for.  The opposition may have the same gameplan towards the Packers offense that Mike Pettine takes toward the Packers’ opponents’ offense: make the QB beat you with his arm.  Fortunately for the Packers, again as much as I “criticize” Rodgers for, he’s outplaying his opposing # and he may be good enough again for the 4^th straight week.

Like always, take a look at the line of scrimmage and that will dictate who forces more turnovers/negative plays, and which QB ultimately plays better.

Eagles 23
Packers 31

Season: 2-1
Overall: 45-26

Advantage taken, opportunity seized.  It’s refreshing to see a Packers team win because of defense.  While the offense got off to a hot start, it completely vanished—while many will speculate as to why, I’m not sure we’ll know the reason for at least 2-6 more weeks.

Recap ~ Kirk Cousins is still terrible, nothing has changed.  Week 2, like week 1—Rodgers outplayed his opposite number.  The Packers defense has now closed out consecutive games for the first time since 2010 (that’s just going off memory).  The Smith Bros. (they’re not really brothers, FYI) again have reminded us what a nice thing it is to have legitimate pass-rushers at pass rushing positions.  We’ve also seen the secondary for the 2^nd straight week essentially lockdown another good receiving corps.  All in all, a great win, just odd that the offense seemed to hit on all cylinders until the scripted plays ran out.

Preview ~ The Denver Broncos also boast a solid defense, and an awesome matchup of premier pass/edge rushers vs. one of the best Tackle-combos in the NFL…Bradley Chubb (#55) and Von Miller (#58) vs. David Bakhtiari (#69) and Bryan Bulaga (#75).  As in the first 2 games, the team that controlled the line of scrimmage controlled the game.  The Packers did just that, hence the 2-0 start, expect more of the same…more so from the Packers’ defensive front vs. the Broncos’ OL, leading Joe Flacco into some risky throws.  The Packers should have a chance to pick-off at least 3 passes, should they catch all 3, ball game.

That’s about it, should be a solidly played defensive game from both teams, but I expect the Packers’ QB to play better than Flacco.

Broncos 13
Packers 24

Season: 1-1
Overall: 44-26

**Should be a good prep for the Eagles on Thursday Night!**

Just like last year, the Packers find themselves with a grand opportunity to take control of the division after having beaten the Bears in their opener.  To go 2-0 vs. the division would be a huge step in the proper direction for this organization’s rebuild and for a rookie Head Coach to build a locomotive-like momentum of confidence.

Review~ The Packers held Chicago to 254 total yards of offense, registered 5 sacks, and had the game’s only turnover (an interception by former Bear, Adrian Amos Jr.).  While the Packers’ D showed vast improvement, even if against a crap QB, the Packers’ offense didn’t look any different aside from the QB not reacting as quickly on hot reads as he had in the previous scheme.  That’s to be expected considering he, obviously, mastered McCarthy’s offense and everyone else was on the same page far more often than can be expected after implementing a new offense.  However, the offense truly struggled and in 13 possessions had 9 punts—I believe a previous blog I had titled “9 Punts?!?!”  The difference here was Aaron Rodgers managed the game, knowing his defense was in control and that Mitch Trubisky wasn’t going to win the game unless the offense handed it to them.  Kudos due where kudos is due.

The defense controlled, closed, and won the game—there were 2 things that stuck out:

1. Improved Tackling—minimal YAC by the Bears
2. Pass Rush

All in all, a great Win considering it’s a new coaching staff, going into a primetime game, on the road, vs. a team that believes they have a shot at winning the Super Bowl (which the Bears don’t, but still).

Preview~ one of the few teams that looked as good, if not better than, the Packers…enter the Minnesota Vikings.  Again, their competition needs to be taken into account, but they did what they were supposed to—opened at home, and jumped all over the Falcons.  The Vikings utilized their uber-talented HB, Dalvin Cook.  He’s the best version of Aaron Jones, super explosive, good vision, and a home run hitter from the backfield.  The Packers have the ability to attack Minnesota’s weaknesses, as they did in their week 2 match-up last year.  Their weaknesses you ask?  The QB and OL.  Defensive Coordinator, Mike Pettine, ran quite a bit of 3-3-5 (3 DL, 3 LBs, and 5 DBs)…allowing Kenny Clark to be single-teamed, which usually results in disaster for his opposition.

If the Packers can get a similar pass rush vs. Cousins as they did Mitch, the defense should have another good day.  However, it’s difficult to image the Vikings abandoning the run as Chicago did…Minnesota and Cousins only had 10 pass attempts all game, meaning they pounded the ball.

Win the turnover battle, and/or have no turnovers and I think Rodgers will be able to make a play or two to pull this one out.

Vikings 16
Packers 20

Season Record: 1-0
Overall Record: 43-26

If you read yesterday’s post, you’ll know I don’t have a good handle on who/what the Packers are…no one really should.  There are so many new pieces, both coaches and players, to really understand what the Packers are going to be.  So let’s look at what each team was last year, whom/what they added and lost, and give an educated guess as to what each actually may be now…

After the 2018 campaign, the Bears ranked in the top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense.  The Packers were a “middle of the road” team in each offense and defense.  Which was very indicative of each team’s record.

 

2018	Packers	Bears
Offense	14th	9th
Defense	22nd	1st

As you can see the Packers are outclassed in these rankings, but let’s look at the key additions.

Packers ~ obviously the largest addition is the coaching staff.  An overhaul of strategy, scheme, and environment (mindset).  What has been a weakness for years can now be argued as a strength; defensive secondary.  The Packers traded away Haha Clinton-Dix and replaced him with Adrian Amos (funny enough essentially traded safeties with Chicago).  Amos is one of the better safeties in football, and the other Safety, Darnell Savage, has pure raw ability to be something – great role model to learn from in Amos is now here vs. Haha’s gambling a$$.  Again, this is a huge IF, but if Kevin King can stay healthy the Packers boast a borderline great secondary, couple that with new pass-rushers in The Smiths (Za’Darius and Preston) and the defense really could be improved.

Thinking further, the Packers scheme-change on offense (should have quite a bit more of a run focus) should keep the defense off the field longer and should make them more effective.  If Rodgers is asked to only make 25-30 throws/game, that could really equate to a very efficient offense (points/possession) while the defense wouldn’t have to play as much, making them better, so on and so forth.

Bears ~ the largest loss for Chicago, I believe, was Vic Fangio (defensive coordinator).  He went to become the Head Coach at Denver, and really turned this Bears’ defense around in his time, then getting Khalil Mack really helped as well.  However, with him leaving, and the QB of the defense, Adrian Amos, not only leaving, but joining your week 1 opponent—that could really set a disadvantage or at least negate the major advantage they could have had.  The Bears also let HB Jordan Howard walk, but drafted high-ceiling/low-basement HB David Montgomery from Iowa St.

Overall- these two teams split their season series last year, each winning their home game.  The Surprise Factor has been discussed this week, meaning the Bears had an advantage last year because they had a new coach which was unknown and the Packers’ defense had no clue what to expect, but adjusted nicely and ultimately won the game.  Bears QB Mitch Trubisky didn’t play a lick of preseason last year as well, and the offense had no issue in the 1^st half of the first game, so assuming the Packers and Aaron Rodgers would experience the same may actually be accurate.

X-Factor?  Aside from the QBs or Khalil Mack, I truly believe the Packers’ OL vs. the Bears’ DL will dictate the outcome of this game.  That makes me happy as a former offensive lineman J

Packers 21
Bears 24

Season Record: 0-0
Overall Record: 43-25

It’s finally here!  I think this is the exact phrase used annually, yet it always seems to feel right—football is back and the NFL is back!  For those that have read this entire time with me, my condolences, it must be painful, however thank you!  So let’s get to it, shall we?

For the first time in a while it feels as though the NFL is wide open.  Well, at least it feels like there’s more than 2-3 teams with a legitimate shot to win the Lombardi Trophy.  Speaking of wide open, I have no clue what to expect from the Packers this year.  They’ve gone through a 99% rebuild (I’d say complete, but that would mean 100% and as long as Rodgers is here, the Packers haven’t turned every stone) and it was needed.  I wish, as a growing minority also believe, Green Bay would’ve gone through the completion of the rebuild—but here we are.  I can see the Packers finishing anywhere from 8-8 to 12-4 and as awesome as it would be, there’s no chance this team wins the Super Bowl.  With that, let’s move on to what the entire league will look like…

As I do every year, in order to pick records for every team, those records must add-up correctly, so I go through the schedule grid for all 32 teams and pick Wins and Losses, then coincide those selections to each team’s schedule, making up their record.  It’s tough to do since a lot of the time you’re conscious of a team you always pick against and another couple you always pick to win.  What I’m mainly looking for is rankings in the standings and playoff seeding.  That seems to have worked out.

NFC
North				East
Chicago	10	6		Philadelphia	11	5
Green Bay	10	6		Dallas	9	7
Minnesota	8	8		New York	7	9
Detroit	3	13		Washington	5	11
South				West
New Orleans	9	7		Los Angeles	12	4
Carolina	8	8		Seattle	8	8
Atlanta	7	9		San Francisco	5	11
Tampa Bay	6	10		Arizona	4	12

 

AFC
North				East
Cleveland	12	4		New England	11	5
Pittsburgh	11	5		Miami	7	9
Baltimore	9	7		Buffalo	6	10
Cincinnati	5	11		New York	5	11
South				West
Jacksonville	10	6		Kansas City	12	4
Houston	9	7		Los Angeles	12	4
Indianapolis	6	10		Denver	7	9
Tennessee	5	11		Oakland	4	12

 

NFC Seeds		AFC Seeds
Rams	1	Chiefs
Eagles	2	Browns
Bears	3	Patriots
Saints	4	Jaguars
Packers	5	Chargers
Cowboys	6	Steelers

Wild Card Round:

• Dallas @ Chicago
• Pittsburgh @ New England
• LA Chargers @ Jacksonville
• Green Bay @ New Orleans

Divisional Round:

• Chicago @ Philadelphia
• New England @ Cleveland
• New Orleans @ LA Rams
• LA Chargers @ Kansas City

Championship Sunday:

• New Orleans @ Philadelphia
• New England @ Kansas City

Super Bowl LIV, Miami, FL:

• New Orleans vs. Kansas City

Super Bowl LIV Champions…

• This is tough, both would go against most of what I’ve been saying about winners in the last 4-5 years. Either Brees gets a 2^nd, along with his head coach, Sean Payton and it’s been 10 years since they won their 1^st—or Andy Reid finally wins one after coaching forever and having boatloads of talent on most of his teams…If this is the matchup I really don’t have a rooting interest because either Brees solidifies himself as a QB with 2 rings or Mahommes and Reid get their 1^st and further prove the point that ANYONE can win ONE (borrowed phrase from a friend)…

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS—win their 2^nd Super Bowl

 

 

Well here we are, 7 days away from kicking off the 100^th NFL season with the league’s two oldest teams.  There’s still quite a bit to watch for tonight, especially concerning the offensive line.  There’s fierce competition at the Guard spots as well as the Wide Receiving corps—LG incumbent Lane Taylor has found himself in a battle mainly because he’s above average, but he’s not that much better of an option than everyone else, but costs significantly more money…the writing is essentially on the wall.  However, the Packers are in good shape regarding the cap and still need depth at O-line, so we’ll see, I’d keep him.

Wide Receiver is a bit more intriguing because there seems to be decent depth.  There’s a chance they could keep 7 WRs, but if that happens it’s likely because Equanimeous St. Brown begins the season on IR.  Your Packer receiver, in order of depth (of what I believe SHOULD happen):

1. Davante Adams #17
2. Jake Kumerow #16
3. Marques Valdez-Scantling #83
4. Geronimo Allison #81
5. Trevor Davis #11
6. Allen Lazard #13
7. Equanimeous St. Brown #19

I like Darrius Shepherd #10, but he’s 5’11” vs. Lazard who stands at 6’5”, so it’s likely Lazard makes the team vs. those two as Shepherd would be “easier to clear waivers” and to stash on the Practice Squad when Davis gets hurt.  Yes, when…dude gets hurt on arm-tackles.

Other than that, there’s not much else—OLB Reggie Gilbert was traded yesterday to the Tennessee Titans for a 7^th round draft pick, which is nice to get a return when the guy was likely getting cut.  OLB is a position in a 3-4 defense where you can never have enough talent, but it’s obvious he was getting cut so keep an eye on who plays there tonight as those guys will (should) get every chance possible since we know the starters are the Smiths (Za’Darius #55 and Preston #91) are locked in starters.  Rookie Rashan Gary #52 needs to stop playing like the last guy that wore #52 and needs to play more like the last guy that wore #92…smh

What used to be known as the “Dress Rehearsal” for the regular season, has since shifted to Preseason Week 3. With the focus of head injuries (concussions) the last decade or so, the NFL has striped teams of practicing with full-contact nearly as often as they used to, which in return saves hits to the head/body, however the other side is that these guys don’t get their bodies used to taking such a pounding.  Without scientific evidence and an educated opinion developed from, what my wife would say is, watching too much football- I believe a lot of these injuries where guys get “banged up” is from not being used to it, or being over protective of their bodies.  I completely understand and agree with this, however the unwillingness to increase roster sizes and adjust IR (Injured Reserve) to better reflect Major League Baseball is irresponsible and enables teams to put out a worse product.

Okay okay, maybe that was a little too serious and meant for its own post.  Let’s get back to the game tonight, eh?  (Catch that reference?)  The Packers are taking on the Oakland “For now until we move to Las Vegas” Raiders, which also could be known as “Yes, we’re the team that decided trading Khalil Mack was the right move to rebuild, but only to follow that move up with adding a diva WR that’s over 30 and paying him a ton of money…”

I’ll keep reiterating what to watch for, or at least what I’m keeping my eye on.  Sadly, it’s become a story that many Packer fans feared, will Rashan Gary record a stat?  No, that’s not a typo, STAT is short for STATISTIC.  Like Kevin King (and Vince Biegel) will forever be graded against TJ Watt, Rashan Gary will forever be graded vs. Christian Wilkins (DT for the Dolphins, went 1 pick after Gary at 13^th).  Gary looks the part, but has yet to literally do anything.  He needs to at least show he’s capable of something vs. and opponent in live action, even if that opponent won’t’ be on an NFL roster, because wretchedly that’d be an improvement…

The other items to lookout for is the timing of the 1’s on offense.  The issue here is if Rodgers doesn’t play, this is almost moot and a wasted opportunity.  I understand withholding him from playing, but if that’s the case, then why do any of the established starters (Adams, Bakhtiari, Linsley, and Bulaga) need to play?  Why risk injury if it’s not worth it?  Hell, those guys have a far better chance at ending up hurt than a QB, especially one that isn’t a runner.  Again, I’ll point to my first paragraph as to why these guys (Rodgers) likely won’t play.

So far the guys that have stood out to me in these preseason games have been Ty Summers (#44), Darrius Shepherd (#10), and Ka’Dar Hollman (#29).  Now, some other players have made some plays and looked good, but these are the types of guys (2^nd year guys and rookies) that are becoming recognized.  Others have been playing well too, ala Allen Lazard (#13), so hopefully the Packers can get the entire 1^st string offense (Rodgers included) a series or two vs. the Raiders’ 1^st defense AND to get the young cats some looks vs. their 1^st and 2^nd defense too.  All in all, just look for positive consistency from the guys you don’t know.

Well of the players I mentioned to watch, Oren Burks may have ended his season or at the very least suffered a potentially serious injury.  This opens the door for ILB next to Blake Martinez.  Ty Summers (#44) made the most of the opportunity and Passed the Test—and has essentially made the team by showcasing his potential that he belongs on an NFL roster.  Let’s keep in mind that everyone that played last Thursday was, at best, a back-up…preseason should be judged on not whether someone stands out in a positive sense, but if they look as if they don’t belong.  Meaning if they look slow, or weak, that’s more telling than looking great.  If a player can’t hold his own against back-ups (at best remember), then they don’t deserve to take up a roster spot.

Heading into the 2^nd game of the preseason, the Packers’ starters are likely to get some action, which I believe is important in the sense of timing and getting live hitting action.  I’m also a firm believer that there’s (maybe not even a) fine line between getting used to hits (immunity?) and having too much live action.  Either way, more live reps can only help or LaFleur said he expects the (offensive) starters to play a “quarter or so.”

What should we watch for tonight?

• Timing of the 1^st string offense; rhythm.
• Cole Madison—missed his entire rookie season last year with a personal issue. He played limited snaps last week and did not look good. Keep an eye on him, #61. Lots of potential and hope for him to help the OL.
• Ka’Dar Hollman—had an INT and played well last week. Let’s see if he can build upon that performance.  Rookie corners can make an immediate impact to a team in the regular season. He wears #29.
• Ty Summers—quickly shooting up the ranks of Packer training camp favorite. Again, he passed the first test, but if he continues to show he belongs he may end up winning a starting job.  #44.

With the Brewers deciding a chance at the playoffs in 2019 is more important than winning a World Series or two in the next 4 years, let’s move on to the best sport ever….FOOTBALL!!!

The Packers kickoff the preseason tonight vs. the Houston Texans.  The Texans have been in Green Bay all week practicing against the Pack, which gives an added element.  The season preview will come later this month heading into the league opener, but as far as what to watch for tonight, always the Rookies and 2^nd year guys.  I don’t get caught up in production or big plays as I do more on who seems to know the playbook and who’s playing with confidence (knowing where they’re going, what they’re supposed to do, etc.).

There are a boatload of rookies and 2^nd year guys that’ll be playing tonight, and I have yet to see the Inactives, however these guys I’m really intrigued to see play:

• #52 Rashan Gary (DE/LB)—he will forever be judged vs. Christian Wilkins (Mia- DT/DL) just as (deservedly so) Kevin King will be vs. TJ Watt.
• #20 Kevin King (CB)—he’s not a 2^nd year guy, however he’s hurt yet again and that’s some serious bull-shine (word borrowed from Czabe)!!!! He’s failing that grade vs. TJ Watt, big time.  The frustrating aspect of King is when he’s healthy, he’s shown why Thompson traded back to get him.
• #37 Josh Jackson (CB/S)—2^nd year man from Iowa (2 pick-6’s vs Wisc. Two years ago) needs to take advantage of his opportunity this camp, especially with King’s injury issues.
• #42 Oren Burks (ILB)—speaking of opportunity, this seems like it could be a head-2-head competition with rookie ILB #44 Ty Summers. Burks was drafted because he can run and cover, as was Summers.  Hopefully one, or both, of these guys can step up to help Blake Martinez captain the middle of the Defense.

I could easily just list every rookie, but that’d be no fun, plus no one would really notice.  It’ll be tough to gauge the WRs without Rodgers playing tonight, so I won’t put too much stock into anything they do, good or bad.

If you’re watching tonight keep in mind the main thing is “no injuries.”