While most (if not all) Packer fans are pissed, there’s one question that group fails to answer: When was the last rookie to be a major contributor to a Super Bowl Winner?  Did any of these players contribute in a major way to their teams’ Super Bowl Championship?

• 2019 Chiefs: Mecole Hardman- nice player, wasn’t a position of need
• 2018 Patriots: Sony Michel- nice player, wasn’t a position of need
• 2017 Eagles: Derek Barnett- 5.0 sacks that season, 1.0 postseason sacks- thank you Nick Foles
• 2016 Patriots: Cyrus Jones???
• 2015 Broncos: Shane Ray?
• 2014 Patriots: Jimmy G…helped start 2-0 while Brady was suspended…not a position of need
• 2013 Seahawks: no one
• 2012 Ravens: Courtney Upshaw- nice player…
• 2011 Giants: Prince Amukamara—nice player, not major factor
• 2010 Packers: Bryan Bulaga—major contributor, due to injury (Tauscher hurt)…also best available

So while many be upset with Jordan Love, his upside is tough to ignore.  Listen, this is the draft to get fat on Wide Receivers, and considering the top tier was pretty much taken just before the 26^th pick shows Green Bay was worried someone else was going to snag the last, best remaining QB.

The one player remaining that I still struggle to grasp is Grant Delpit- S from LSU.  However, there are plenty of players available with extreme value remaining and as long as Green Bay continues to follow the “Draft the best available,” that will likely play out best for the organization.

Finally!  Something to watch where we don’t know the outcome!

The Packers have plenty of needs to address, however addressing current needs in the draft gets you in trouble.  Picking the best player available is usually the best method to success.  If that best player available just so happens to fill a current need, that’s a win-win.  Let’s look at some potential prospects that could fall to Green Bay and how that would impact moving forward.

Wide Receivers – this draft is considered to possibly be the best ever for that department.  Here’s a tiered group that would be ideal for the Packers to add that could realistically contribute their rookie year, but then again, keep in mind, rookies rarely contribute enough to help win a Super Bowl.  The best draft class ever (in my opinion, by a single team) was the Saints in 2017, and they still had one of those awesome rookies fail to make a tackle on Diggs in the NFC Divisional Round to lose on the Minneapolis Miracle.  But I digress…

• CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma
• Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama
• Henry Ruggs III, WR Alabama
• Justin Jefferson, WR LSU
• Brandon Aiyuk, WR Arizona St.
• Tee Higgins, WR Clemson
• Laviska Shenault Jr., WR Colorado
• Denzel Mims, WR Baylor
• Jalen Reagor, WR TCU

I’d be happy with any of those players taken at 30^th.  Especially Lamb, Jeudy, or Ruggs as they’re considered to go near or in the top 10.

Other Positions—here’s a list of players that would make sense to draft at 30^th for the Packers should they be available as well, or at least to keep an eye on…

• Tristan Wirfs, OL Iowa
• Jedrick Wills Jr., OL Alabama
• Andrew Thomas, OL Georgia
• Mekhi Becton, OL Louisville
• Kenneth Murray, ILB Oklahoma
• Patrick Queen, ILB LSU
• Grant Delpit, S LSU

Again, if some of these players fall to 30^th, it’s extreme value to Green Bay to select them…and the one that seems to be somewhat realistic is the Safety from LSU, Grant Delpit.  By all accounts, he seems to be a certifiable stud and will be in the NFL.  With the way the NFL has been and seems to be is defending the pass and needing pass rushers, coverage, and playmakers: he fits all 3.

Let’s look at a few scenarios…

Dream Scenario—if somehow Tua Tagovailoa (QB – Alabama) drops to 30^th similar to Aaron Rodgers dropping to 24^th in 2005.  Again, I think there’s zero chance of this happening, even more so BECAUSE of the Rodgers drop.  However, dream scenario.

Close to a Dream—Tua drops enough to a point where Green Bay could trade up without giving away tremendous value to a spot to draft him.  Again, highly unlikely and there’s too much value in this draft to give away picks (when they should be acquiring).

My Prediction??? –

1. Trade back (assuming they find a partner).
2. Laviska Shenault Jr., WR Colorado

It’s been 75 days since last posting.  Without covering the obvious, let’s take a dive into what’s happened since the Chiefs hoisted their 2^nd Lombardi Trophy.

Let’s look at Free Agency, both additions and subtractions (and some maybe addition BY subtraction).  Players lost:

• ILB Blake Martinez – Giants
• OT Bryan Bulaga – Chargers
• WR Geronimo Allison – Lions
• OLB Kyler Fackrell – Giants
• ILB BJ Goodson – Browns
• FB Danny Vitale – Patriots

The ones that hurt most are the first two names.  While Martinez was a polarizing player amongst fans, he did provide value in 2 major ways: 1. Availability; 2. an overall good person that truly loved playing here.  The other is Bryan Bulaga—while not always the most available, possibly had his best year of his career in 2019.  Bulaga was part of the best Tackle duo in the NFL.  Did the Packers replace those two (and 4 others) enough to improve heading into the draft?  Let’s take a look.

Additions:

• ILB Christian Kirksey – Browns
• OT Rick Wagner – Lions (from West Allis)
• WR Devin Funchess – Colts (mostly from Panthers)
• OLB Jamal Davis II – Dolphins
• Gerald Willis – Dolphins

Kirksey, while injury-prone by definition, seems to be a productive player when available.  If you know me, you know how I feel about players like this.  Low value, however, assuming he’s able to play 15-16 games this year, there’s a chance he’s a better fit at ILB than Martinez was for Pettine’s defense…hopefully.

Rick Wagner is a serviceable Tackle and experienced, which is huge.  He has 87 career starts coming into the 2020 campaign, which is what you want from an OL you sign from Free Agency, experience.

Devin Funchess is a big-bodied target (6’4” 225lbs) that ran about a 4.5 forty at the 2015 combine.  Another sensible free agency pickup that provides nice depth for an area of need, the WR corps.

The 2 players added Tue (4.21) spent most of their time on the Dolphins and their practice squad last year.  While you shouldn’t expect anything from them, more bodies and if you get any sort of production from them, outside of special teams, major bonus.

To review, the Packers seem to have a large Net Loss losing Bulaga and adding Wagner.  Possibly Loss, Even, or Upgrade in Kirksey over Martinez.  Funchess can’t be anything but an upgrade over Allison, unless he finds himself in Rodgers’ doghouse…

Tune back later this afternoon to see the Draft “prediction” blog.

Normally I would’ve dedicated a separate blog to reviewing the NFC title game, however to keep it efficient, this will be a total recap.  So here we go.

NFC Championship Game Review~ the Packers eventually were outclassed in every facet of the game.  While the start was quite promising, the missed read by Rodgers on the 5^th play of the drive, a 3^rd & 3 from the GB 48.  After that, the punt ensued (I would’ve gone for it, regardless) and away the 49ers went.  The defense began with a 3 & out, but that was it.

It’s not worth recapping much, everyone played like crap.  Even team captain, Za’Darius Smith, commented about how the team wasn’t ready to play…that should be quite alarming.  That falls on the Head Coach, but it also falls on each individual player.  Hence no need to recap.

Season Recap~ again, this was one of the weirdest situations a pro sports team found themselves in, rare territory.  Many thought this Packers team wouldn’t finish above .500.  I was torn heading into the season of where to slot the Packers.  I thought anywhere between 8-8 and 12-4, so I settled for 10-6 and then did the entire schedule and had Green Bay as the 5 seed.  So winning a playoff game with a rookie Head Coach, technically, is impressive.  However, the older I get, the more I realize the more you capitalize on these opportunities, the more likely these opportunities come by – there are 2 questions left to be asked (almost every year):

1. Was this season a success?
2. Are you pleased with how this season ended?

This is where it gets weird.  The Packers’ season had a successful season, in my terms.  Yet somehow I’m not pleased with how it finished.  Here’s way…

• It’s a success due to winning a playoff game with a rookie Head Coach. Getting to the NFC title game is technically more impressive if you began in the Wild Card than getting a bye, due to having to win a road playoff game.  It’s weird, I know.
• I’m not pleased—due to seeing this team for 16 games, and knowing this season came down to a pure matchup issue. This was also the reason I was supremely confident the entire game vs. Seattle.  I knew Green Bay had the proper matchup for Seattle…Rodgers vs. that Seahawks D, he should tear it up.
  • Knowing Rodgers absolutely blows in NFC title game—every TD pass in those game has come in garbage time sans 1 (vs. Seattle).

There’s HOPE, moving forward.  The issue is that Hope Isn’t A Strategy.

NFL Recap~ well, for the 2^nd consecutive season I picked the Super Bowl winner.  I wasn’t too accurate on much else, but whatever.  Some may say that I thought the 9ers would win the night before the Super Bowl, which I did.  However, I’d then have written this saying “How close I was to getting 2 in a row, correct.”

Heading into next season, it’s the same narrative…”How much more help does Rodgers need to win?”  There’s the issue.  Many claim (Rodgers defenders) “It’s a team game, it’s more than just the QB,” a smart man once said (and it resonated) “Show me a loser and I’ll show you a QB that was outplayed.”  That’s sadly and alarmingly accurate.

This is the draft to get WRs, so hopefully the Packers take at least 2 of the top 9 WRs in the draft, and load up on defense, again.

Review~ Green Bay and their QB played a very clean, efficient game and Rodgers was extremely clutch on 3^rd down.  Looking at the Team Stats from the game, it shows it’d be a close game with the edge going to Seattle.  However, since neither team had a turnover – (a fumble that should’ve gone to Sullivan on Seattle’s first drive), and Kevin King dropped an easy pick—the key then goes to 3^rd down efficiency.  Green Bay converted 9-of-14 (64%) third downs while limiting Seattle to 3-of-9 (33%).  Rodgers connected with Jimmy Graham three times, all converting a huge 3^rd down- the last to seal the game and move the Packers to Championship Sunday.

As I stated last week, Seattle was missing a legitimate starting Halfback, and old-and-slow Marshawn Lynch proved to be just that.  While he had 2 touchdowns, both came from goal line situations, otherwise he was a non-factor and it was all on Russell Wilson to win the game, which proved to be too much as he was sacked on a the Packers’ defense’s biggest 3^rd down of the game.  Carroll’s decision to punt risked his offense not getting the ball back, which was foolish as Rodgers had gone 7-of-12 on 3^rd downs in the game, up to that point.  Also, the Packers had scored touchdowns on half of their possessions in the game, punting on the other 4.  Meaning, best case scenario, the Seahawks would be to get the ball back around their 22 yard line, with about 1:45 left and a timeout or two, and needing a touchdown.  This shows how important building a lead is, because it demands damn near perfection from the losing team to come all the way back and win.  While many think the 2014 title game was reminiscent of this one, I (in attendance) never once thought the Packers would let this slip away—Wilson doesn’t win in Lambeau.  Yes he was great in the 2^nd half, however for as awesome as he was then, he was that “pedestrian” in the 1^st half.  He missed open targets and overthrew Malik Turner (#17) on the first play of their 3^rd drive which should’ve resulted in the King interception, so on and so forth.

In the end, the Packers were the better team for the entirety of the game, and it showed.  Now can the Packers go to Santa Clara, California and build a lead to make the better team (San Francisco) play perfect to come back?

Preview~ a rematch of the ass-kicking that took place in Week 12 on Sunday night, November 24^th.  It was the Packers’ first game coming off the BYE, and they were quite healthy going into a banged up San Fran team.  Every Packer fan likely has trouble scrubbing that from their memory, as they should.  The 9ers were the most complete team in the NFC all season, and even went into Baltimore and gave them a tough test (losing 20-17 on a FG as time expired).

The realist in you should be worried about where the Packers can gain an advantage to potentially upset the vaunted 49ers.  Let’s take a look at how these teams matchup:

As you can see, the Packers really only have 2 areas of advantage: Rush O vs SF’s rush D and the Turnover differential.  The Packers were +12 (tied-3^rd) where San Francisco finished +4 (tied-10^th).  That’s where Green Bay will need to take advantage if they plan to pull this game out.  If Green Bay can “steal” 2 possessions and score touchdowns on each, creating a 14-28 point swing that would put them in the driver’s seat.  However, getting the lead/scoring 1^st should be the priority for the Packers.  Let’s make Jimmy Garoppolo play from behind and somehow if you’re able to jump out to a 10-0 or 14-3 lead, that should allow Pettine to put his defense in a great position to control the game and dictate what Shanahan does on offense.

This has been one of, if not the, most parodied seasons in recent memory for the NFL, so it’s only fitting that the Packers found a way to have an opportunity to “steal” a ring.  Not only would that go a ways into cementing Rodgers’ legacy (while I thought he’d have 3 by the time he’s done after initially seeing him start a whole season in 2008, I also said after 2014 he’d never win another), when looking into each season and how things transpire- careers are judged at overall accomplishments and not how the accomplishments were attained…but that’s another topic for the offseason (man I’m really mounting those up this playoff run).

In the end, while I wouldn’t be shocked if the Packers pulled this out, and I do think 90% (maybe more) are dictated by the play of the QB, Rodgers typically sucks in NFC title games.  We also have no clue about Jimmy G and his Big Game situations.  He was quite fortunate to have his 1^st playoff appearance come against Kirk Cousins – who’s notorious for choking in big games – and for it to come at home after a bye.  This should be a much more even matchup, and possibly even back-and-forth, but in the end, I think the 49ers have too much of an advantage at other areas and QB-play is close to even…at least heading into this.  If Rodgers kills it like he did on 3^rd down in the Divisional game in the Championship game, there’s no doubt the Packers will be moving on.

Packers 21
49ers 27

Season: 11-6
Overall: 54-31

Rankings~ Redemption? Not really.  Winning this game will not make up for the epic choke job in the 2014 NFC title game, however, it could be part of the healing process if this turns to back-to-back Super Bowl titles.

Let’s take a look at the rankings and how these teams match-up.

Match-up~ I’ve highlighted the advantages for each team in their matchups, with the rankings in parenthesis.  As you can see, Seattle has the advantage on offense in the run game, which translates to total offense, in yards.  However, there’s more to it than that—the Seahawks are now featuring their 4^th, 5^th, and 6^th string running backs: Marshawn Lynch (#24); Travis Homer (#25); Robert Turbin (#34).  So the Packers technically have the upper-hand there now.

The Packers’ Offense seemingly has the advantage in every category vs. Seattle.  The Seahawks are also giving up more points/game than the Packers averaged this season, which bodes well as the postseason is typically lower-scoring so points are harder to come by.

The other rankings, which are very important, are Turnovers and Point Differential.  Combine all of these rankings and it gives you a great idea as to true strength of a team.  Each of these teams finished the season +12 in turnovers (T-3^rd), however the odd thing was Seattle only scored 7 more points than they gave up this season, which is difficult to do when you finish 11-5.  Meaning when they lose, they got had—and when they win, it’s typically close.

QB Match-up~ while Russell Wilson has been in the conversation for MVP this season, deservedly so, a QB’s job is to win.  Hence why they’re judged on Super Bowl wins (as they should be), and Wilson has done a decent job, but the dynamic of Seattle has switched from a suffocating defense to a solid QB with a bunch of weapons at the skill positions.  The Packers have focused on their defense, and while it may seem they’ve neglected the offense, they did spend (terribly overspent) $ on Jimmy Graham, and brought in RG Billy Turner (#77), with all the money allocated to Rodgers, put it on him to make everyone else better.  Which he’s done for most of the season, hence 13-3.  Rodgers, at home, is a tough out, and while only 3-2 in Lambeau in the playoffs, the advantage MUST side with him and the Packers here.

Rodgers vs. Wilson: 3-4.  With each W coming by the home team.  This makes complete sense as the Packers outplayed the Seahawks in 2 of those game in Seattle (9/24/2012- Fail Mary & 1/18/2015- NFC Title Game).

All of these rankings, turnovers, point differential, QB matchup…who wins?  I began the week somewhat nervous and skeptical—however, all I could think about is the absolute worst-case scenario of hosting the Vikings in an NFC Title game and losing…that’d be the worst!  Am I thinking ahead?  Yep, as we all should!

Seahawks 13
Packers 27

Season: 10-6
Overall: 53-31

Review~ glad I missed on the meter that Rodgers somehow fell behind Cousins on the QB-level meter.  Cousins must be the worst “big game” QB ever.  Considering all of his “big games,” aside from 1, have come in the regular season, that’s telling.  Rodgers didn’t play all that well, he actually played somewhat terrible, but came up with enough throws and still built a lead when Cousins couldn’t fully capitalize on the 3 turnovers.

It was also refreshing to see the Packers continue to feed Aaron Jones after his lost fumble on the first 3^rd down of the game.  25 touches for 160 yards, that’s how you take and keep control of a game even when you’re not playing well.  Kudos to LaFleur and Rodgers for sticking with it.

Current Standing~ now the Packers are in a great spot, win and get a BYE.  Couple that with a Seahawks win over San Francisco tonight, and the Packers are the 1 seed in the NFC.  If Green Bay will continue to stick with the run/Aaron Jones, even when on the road in a big game in a dome (last week), that should give hope they’d do the same at home, which would be much easier for both the O and D to play well.

Preview~ enter the awful Detroit Lions.  The last time the Packers saw this team, they were 2-1-1, and both the tie was close (obviously) and their loss was a back and forth battle to a healthy Chiefs team.  They still have a bunch of guys that can “compete,” but that doesn’t necessarily translate into Wins.  Look for the Packers to take control of this game out of the shoot and lock up a BYE in the playoffs.

Packers 27
Lions 10

Season: 9-6
Overall: 52-31

A gift, thanks Arizona (and Brett Hundley???)  The Packers sit as the 2^nd seed in the NFC playoff picture (with a win).  They control their destiny for that 2 seed- should they win out, they can do no worse than the 2 seed.  Win out and have Seattle beat SF and the Packers are the 1 seed and fare much better vs any opponent in Lambeau than heading on the road, and/or not even having a BYE.

Preview~ win and win the division.  Winning the division is key, but far from the ultimate goal.  While a huge step in the right direction for a 1^st year head coach, be wary that doesn’t necessarily mean much (i.e. Nagy and the Bears did the same last year going 12-4).  While I think the Packers are a much better run organization than Chicago, it’s still worth mentioning…plus, it’s ok to have expectations of winning more than initial thoughts coming into the season, especially that the Packers have only secured a BYE in the postseason 5 times since Brett Favre entered Green Bay.  This could be the sixth, and in my previous blog, I showed the importance of earning a BYE…the last 6 seasons, the Super Bowl has only had representatives that have had a BYE.  1 seed, as you’d imagine, is even more indicative of getting to the Super Bowl.  Keep Winning.

While the graph shows Minnesota ranking better both offensively and defensively (by points), Green Bay has been getting it done with not turning it over and making their opponents drive the length of the field to score…which is Pettine’s “Bend but Don’t Break” motto.  The issue with metrics, while over the course of a season may help, in only 1 game one key mistake likely will determine the outcome—and the Packers are built for the offense not to have a single turnover.  It’s still tough not to think about the opening series in San Fran where Rodgers fumbled and essentially changed the entire game.  The Packers are behind the 8-ball this game, with Minnesota playing well and having quite a bit of talent in the right areas, while being well-balanced.

If the Packers can equalize them enough to bring this to a Rodgers v Cousins game, that should be enough considering Captain Average (err Kirk) sucks in primetime games especially vs. “Good” teams.  Then again, if Rodgers can’t outperform Kirk…

Win and 12-3, heading into Detroit with a boat load of momentum with the ability to lock up the 2 seed, and potentially home field advantage, would be quite the accomplishment for a rookie head coach—then I’d say “don’t waste the opportunity.”  Lose, and well…it’s still a must-win in Detroit for the division, but then likely hosting San Fran or Seattle in the wild card round with the right to travel to New Orleans…yikes…

Packers 24
Vikings 31

Season: 9-5
Overall: 52-30

Review~ an ugly win, however good teams win ugly from time to time.  How important is winning “pretty” vs. teams one “should’ve have an issue?”

1. Defense- locked down until it was essentially over.
2. Offense- began fast, which is a huge improvement from last year, but needs to finish more consistently.
3. Special Teams- may be fixed, or at least improved enough to not be a liability.

As stated last week, no matter what the Packers did, aside from losing- this was a no-win scenario.  Everything is leading up to these final 3 games, all divisional opponents- and each carrying a huge component.

This week’s component?  Knocking the Bears from the postseason—and possibly clinching a playoff berth of their own.  If the Packers win, the Bears are out of the playoffs. A 7-loss team cannot make the playoffs in the NFC, unless it’s the Vikings or Rams.

The Packers can clinch if they best the Bears and the Rams lose.  In order to win the division, the Packers must win any 2 of the remaining 3 games on their schedule.  If the Packers win out, they’re guaranteed at least the 2 seed.  They could get some major help, and wind up as the 1 seed, but that’d be tough to count on.  Let’s focus on beating the Bears…

Preview~ end the Bears’ season.  Chicago has been riding high, winning 4 of their last 5.  They’re back in the playoff hunt, still essentially needing to win out, but this is another major opportunity for Green Bay to knock them off, and build a bunch of confidence (especially on offense) vs. a very good defense.

The Packers are the better team, completely shut down the Bears in their week 1 meeting to open the NFL’s 100^th season, and it should be more of the same.  Scoring 24 points at home, vs. any defense shouldn’t be too big of an ask, but with the offense stalling for 2+ consecutive quarters more often than not, vs. bad defenses…well…I’m not too optimistic.

This is the Bears’ Super Bowl and you’ll get their best shot…

Bears 20
Packers 24

Season: 8-5
Overall: 51-30

Review~ the game vs. the Giants went the way it was supposed to.  However, not without a bit of a struggle to pull away until late.  However, good teams do what they’re supposed to, and close out the game vs. an inferior opponent.  Still, getting the 3 turnovers that Daniel Jones will typically give you, the Packers still show they’re capable of beating bad teams and it’s very tough to imagine beating a good team, which they’d ultimately have to do once or twice in the playoffs if they plan on actually winning the Super Bowl.

Another frustrating item with this team is it seems the defense, as a whole, isn’t much better than the last few years’.  The defense is ranked 14^th in scoring, giving up an average of 21.3 points/game.  Another indicator of overall team play is the point differential.  I’ve found myself in many disagreements, especially in baseball, about a team’s true strength determined by point differential.  The Packers are 9-3, but only have a +34 differential, which ranks them 11^th in the NFL.  To give some insight, here’s a listing/ranking of where the Super Bowl winners from the past 10 seasons have ranked:

As you can see, four of the past 10 winners have ranked 1^st, and two have ranked 2^nd.  A clear indication that point differential is telling in the sense of a true “chance of winning,” couple that with scoring defensive rank and one might be able to predict the winner heading into the playoffs.  A lot of these coincide, ala high point differential means a lot of wins, which equals home field advantage, which means they’re likely to get to the Super Bowl and are just a solid team.

Preview~ another week, and another No-Win scenario for the Packers.  To paraphrase Mayor Larry Vaughn (from Jaws) Blow the doors off Washington, and no one bats an eye.  Struggle or lose?  Well, then you have panic on your hands leading into Christmas.

The Redskins seems to be in full rebuild- owner’s fault- yet are somehow not eliminated from playoff (division) contention at 3-9 due to the NFC East being terrible.  As you can see on the chart below, the Redskins have the worst offense in the entire NFL, a rookie QB that makes plenty of mistakes, and holes all over the rest of their roster.

The Packers shouldn’t have any trouble in this one, but then again, it’s the Packers and they typically lose a game they have no business losing…hopefully that’s out of the way from the Charger game.

Redskins 14
Packers 38

Season: 7-5
Overall: 50-30