The prescription the Dr. ordered was the perfect remedy. The offense got back on schedule and credit goes to the QB for executing it as such. As the QB goes, so goes the team. That’s essentially how it’s always been, for any team, any year…key word essentially.
In Tampa, Rodgers had 2 bad/unfortunate INTs, then mailed it in, as did the remaining 52 (or 45, whatever). Rodgers executed well in Houston, as did the rest of the team. While the defense gave up some yards and points, when a stop was an absolute must, it delivered…mainly the Preston Smith tackle of Deshaun Watson on that awful 4th & 1 option call.
Preview~ Green Bay hung 43 points in Minnesota in week 1. While those were perfect conditions (dome and no crowd), much should be the same this go around. The main issue could be the wind (forecast shows 37° and wind up to 26 mph). Let’s take a look at how these teams rank/match-up:
Offense
Defense
Rush
Pass
Total
Points
Rush
Pass
Total
Points
Min
139.2 (6)
235.0 (22)
374.2 (14)
25.8 (17)
129.0 (22)
286.7 (29)
413.7 (28)
32.0 (30)
GB
132.2 (10)
261.5 (14)
393.7 (8)
32.8 (2)
117.0 (12)
240.3 (18)
350.3 (11)
26.5 (19)
When the Vikings have the ball, it appears to be an “even matchup.” Meaning, Minnesota gains about the same amount of yards (and ranks similarly) as the Packers allow. The major advantage is when the Packers have the ball. Green Bay catapulted back up the rankings in points scored (previously 1st prior to the horror show in Tampa Bay, but now 2nd with 32.8 points/game). Keep an eye on the secondary for the Packers. Raven Greene (S #24) had a quiet nice game and showed his sound tackling. He helped keep the Texans “in front” of the defense and made them work for every yard. Darnell Savage is Questionable too, so those are 2 – possibly big – injuries to take note.
With the return of Kenny Clark, the defense saw a much-needed boost in the middle coupled with the initial play of Kamal Martin (rookie ILB #54) was refreshing to see a ILB both be able to cover AND stick it in the run game. My cousin had a good comparison, Desmond Bishop. Which this defense has been missing since his leg injury in 2011. While I don’t think Martin is on the same level of athletic/thumping ability, he’s far ahead of anyone we’ve had there since. He also has Kenny Clark who is far better than BJ Raji, and Raji was very good. The other thing people should notice (if they haven’t already) is Jaire Alexander is a true lockdown corner. He rarely gets targeted and typically follows, not only, the #1 WR – but he seems to be matched up on the player that’s likely had the play designed to get the ball to…impressive isn’t a strong enough word for his play and improvement since his rookie year.
How can Minnesota come out of Lambeau with a victory? Winning the turnover battle by at least 2 and have Green Bay come down with key injuries.
Look for more of the same…let’s bury this annoying team/fan base and laugh at their obsession with begging for Captain Average.
It was a great start. A 10-play 54-yard drive for a FG on the opening drive, followed up by a 3&out by the defense, then an 11-play 80-yard drive for a TD…a 10-0 lead. The defense then held the Bucs’ again and got the ball back for the rolling offense at their own 22.
What happened next was chaos, in the worst way. Consecutive interceptions for touchdowns (well, the 2nd INT wasn’t a TD, but it essentially was). The offense was never able to recover, and neither was the defense. This was a prime example as why turnovers typically decide the outcome of games, especially the closer matched both teams are.
The good news is the Packers are a far better team than the one that took a 38-10 drubbing, and hopefully they’re able to learn as much as possible from it…the bad news, they seemed to quit during the middle of a game that wasn’t out of grasp. Not sure what to chalk it up to, but sometimes teams lay clunkers, just odd that they got out of the gates hot and had complete control. On to the next.
What looked like a great match-up heading into the season has turned into a lop-sided one, at least it should be. Houston, while having a difficult schedule, good/great teams don’t start the season 1-5. The Texans feature one of the young star-QBs, in Deshaun Watson.
Offense
Defense
yards
points
yards
points
GB
396.6 (7th)
32.4 (3rd)
347.4 (13th)
27.8 (20th)
Hou
368.0 (17th)
24.3 (21st)
424.0 (30th)
30.3 (26th)
Green Bay has a heavy advantage on offense vs. the Texans’ defense. Ranking 3rd in points against Houston’s 26th ranking is where the Packers could potentially (and almost expectedly) could hang 40+ again. While Green Bay’s defense seems to have taken a step back from last year, their strong suit is to play from ahead and get after the QB. Without over-thinking it, that’s how I see this game progressing. The 1st interception last week came after the Packers had 2 incomplete passes on 1st and 2nd downs, and that’s not LaFleur’s offense…with the absence of Aaron Jones, look for Jamaal Williams and rookie A.J. Dillon to get involved early and often, and (hopefully) setting up a lot more play action from under center sets. It may be the help needed to get Rodgers back on track, since Williams is the preferred back for pass protection – which may be even more crucial depending on Bakhtiari’s status.
No reason to think this won’t be a high-scoring affair, but should be one the better team should come out on top.
Coming off the bye week a year ago the Packer laid their biggest dud of the regular season, a 37-8 ass-whooping from the San Francisco 49ers. There’s a chance the same could happen, but Rodgers seems too in control and has too good of a rhythm going to be stale-mated for an entire game. The other “bye” week the Packers had was the Wild Card round in last years’ playoffs and they came out hot vs. Seattle. They held on late with the defense getting a stop after they showed to be leaking quite a bit of fuel in the 4th quarter and the offense held on to run out the remainder of the clock. I believe that’ll be more of the Packers team we’ll be treated to come 3:25pm CST Sunday.
Enter the Tommy Brady Buccaneers. He’s a shell of his former self, evidenced by only putting up 13 points, at home, in the playoffs…following a week 17 loss to Miami when had he won would’ve secured the 2 seed and a bye. That’s not the Brady we saw for the previous 18 seasons in New England. The point to take here is, while TB12 isn’t near his GOAT form, he’s a vast improvement from Jameis Winston. Couple that with Bruce Ariens and there’s some serious danger there, and if not careful, could hang 40 on a defense. I don’t fully expect this to be a shootout, if it is…I like the younger QB’s chances, plus he’s playing his best football of his career (winning with ease).
Offense
Defense
Yards
Points
Yards
Points
GB
445.5 (2)
38.0 (1)
353.3 (12)
25.3 (17)
TB
365.0 (19)
27.8 (12)
298.2 (2)
22.4 (8)
As you can see, Green Bay possesses the best offense in the league, and while they may not have had a true test, they’ve done what they’re supposed to against their opponents. Tampa Bay holds the 8th best defense (in points), so this could be a solid matchup to watch. Much has been made about the Bucs’ premier pass-rusher, Shaquil Barrett (#58), whom had a career year last year with 19.5 sacks. While he’s something to keep an eye on, he shouldn’t pose much of a threat vs. Green Bay’s outstanding offensive line. It helps to have Rodgers’ fleet-of-foot in the pocket along with his awareness, the OL has been nothing short of amazing in pass protection. They’ve also done a bang-up job creating running lanes for Aaron Jones and even Jamaal Williams to work with. The Chargers, led by (somewhat surprising to me) upstart rookie QB Justin Herbert, lit up the Bucs’ D for 31 the other week. The target for LaFleur and Rodgers should be around or above that number. The forecast calls for thunderstorms, so holding onto the ball could be the difference, but the Packers (knock on wood) have been solid with their turnover differential as well.
22 years ago, also on a Monday night, the Packers hosted an undefeated Vikings squad that came in with an uber-talented wide receiver (rookie Randy Moss). Sound familiar? It shouldn’t, because the Packers got blasted that game and Moss put his name on the map as Arrived. The Packers have done that quite a bit, making opponents look awesome in the spotlight. Happens when you play on national TV fairly often. While the Packers’ defense is libel to have an unknown kill them, this should be an opportunity for an unknown on Green Bay to make a name on national television.
I’d normally recap the previous week, but since it went according to plan, almost identically, what’s the point? The potential Previously Unknown candidates could range from any of the Tight Ends (Jace #87, Bobby #85, Deguara #81) to possibly Thighs (rookie HB AJ Dillon #28). All could easily have a break out game vs. Atlanta’s garbage defense. Then again it could be the, now, household names of Aaron Jones or….no wait, that’s about it. Credit goes to the QB for running the offense about as efficiently can be expected, however the offensive line has been absolutely amazing, especially given the injuries and musical chairs they’ve been playing. They’ve created running lanes, provided plenty of time with little-to-no-push into the pocket, and have been somewhat healthy in doing so.
As previously mentioned, the Falcons’ defense is straight trash. Having blown the last 2 games with heavy 4th quarter leads. Atlanta is giving up an avg. of 15.3 points in the 4th quarter. That is, no doubt, in the back of their mind. Especially when coming to face the #1 offense in the NFL, they’re going to press and try to play perfect football, which will likely come with trying to get as many turnovers as possible. Look for the Packers to take advantage of their aggression with a bunch of misdirection and play action…aka, their normal offense. While the Falcons do have some talented skill players (Julio Jones #11, Calvin Ridley #18, and Todd Gurley #21), their QB is the biggest choke artist in NFL history, and is further proving that this year losing to the Bears and Cowboys the last 2 games with double-digit 4th quarter leads.
Expect Julio (should he play) to get his, keeping in mind they’re likely to be chasing all game and having to throw, but anticipate little resistance from their D…it’s crazy to think, but maybe expect Rodgers to captain another 40-point output. Hopefully he just doesn’t have to in order to win.
Well most predictions on this game turned to be true. The Packers were the better team, by far, and it showed after the extremely slow-start. Generating your own energy is going to be an asset this NFL season, and there’s no better time to have to play a Prime-Time game at the Superdome in New Orleans than when no fans are allowed. Even the biggest Packer Backer would have a hard time picking any Green Bay team to come out of there with a W, but maybe not so much.
Review~ again Green Bay got down early to Detroit, by allowing the Lions to march right down the field on their first 2 possessions and build a 14-3 lead in Lambeau. That was quickly put to an end when Aaron Rodgers (and Chandon Sullivan) led the Packers to 31 unanswered points, which is a true testament to the QB sticking with the playbook and now trying to takeover. He played another great game, albeit vs. a sub-par opponent, but he did his job. Aaron Jones further validated his eliteness by taking over with a 75-yard scamper up the middle of the defense. It’s those homerun-type plays that will allow the Packer offense to keep their opponent off-balance due to the threat of the big play on the ground.
The defense sorely missed Kenny Clark, as the first 2 drives proved little resistance. The Packers could have a chance at a Super Bowl if they take the 2019 Kansas City Chiefs’ route by their offense taking over games and seizing all momentum, but it’d be much easier if Green Bay could even show a threat of stopping the fun. This week will be a great test.
Preview~ New Orleans may have the deepest, and best roster in the NFL. While you know me, it comes down to the QB, Brees looks every bit of a 41-year old and never had a strong arm to begin with. Relying on his perfectly timed and accurate passing abilities over arm strength, that and a balanced attack is how they can put up points. If this gets to a shootout (see SF @ NO last year) I believe it solely falls into the hands of the QB and no QB is playing better than Aaron Rodgers.
The unforeseen bright spot of this Packers team has been the offensive line. We knew Bakhtiari and Jenkins were studs (Jenkins may be the most-underrated OL in the NFL), Linsley was solid, but the RG and RT spots were scary ?’s. After 2 games, and a balanced offense, the OL has not only “held up,” but I’d argue has been one of, if not, the best lines in the entire league. Look for heavy doses of Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon – on top of the much-anticipated Aaron Jones show – to wear down that Saints’ pass rush and get Rodgers into easy conversions to keep the ball.
There will be a lot of talk about Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara, as there should, but if Rodgers plays remotely effective as to the 1st two weeks, the Packers will win.
Review—it’s refreshing to see a QB run the offense. Rodgers played in rhythm and sync the entire game, and it showed by settling for only 1 punt in 10 possessions. While the numbers show the Packers passed > rushed, the run was the key for the offense. It kept the defense off-balance and allowed LaFleur the entire playbook for the entire game. Where Rodgers truly shined was his timing on his “shots.” Instead of the adlib and chuck offense, which was done on 1 or 2 plays, the shots taken were at the right time in both game situation and pace of game. The challenge comes when facing an opponent that doesn’t have an awful secondary with zero pass rush (missing Hunter was huge for them), however kudos is due because he did what he was supposed to do and put op 43 points (easily could’ve been 50 had Adams hung on to the 4th down throw).
The defense on the other hand…well, they dictated the game and gave the offense the opportunity to build a lead, it was good team football until the 4th quarter. The offense kept punishing the Vikings’ D and the defense couldn’t close it out. It was wary to see both Savage and Alexander peeking at the QB allowing Thielen (both times) to get behind them for relatively easy touchdowns. The other part is giving up three 2-pt conversions. While it mattered not in the result of the game, there’s plenty to work on…and the Packers’ run defense seems to have picked up where it left off in San Francisco in January.
Preview—since Kenny Clark is OUT for the week 2 matchup vs. Detroit, everyone should pick up Adrian Peterson (#28), Kerryon Johnson (#33), and/or D’Andre Swift (#32)—even if Swift is the goat (not the good kind) from last week’s drop vs. Chicago. The Packers’ rush D gave up 6.1 yards/carry vs. Minnesota and it didn’t look like it was close to stopping anyone. Be on the lookout if Detroit sticks with the run that this game may actually be tight.
Then again, if Mitch Trubisky can put up 21 unanswered vs Detroit, then what should Rodgers be able to do? Detroit seems absolutely cursed, just as a franchise. The prime example(s) should be from both games vs. Green Bay last season. The Packers never led in either game, yet went 2-0 vs. Detroit. They have no clue how to win in the regular season, which is just hilarious, however all the more embarrassing if you lose to them.
I don’t see the Packers dropping this one in their home opener, even if fanless. It’ll likely be tight throughout, for no reason, but I in no way see how Green Bay drops this game.
The season is finally upon us! I’m not sure if you feel similar, but this is the least excited I can remember being about football in my entire life. The best feeling I’ve had was hearing the FOX music on a promo, but something about the stadiums being empty, or nowhere near capacity just complexes me. Anyway, onto week 1!
The Vikings have changed a bit since their random (and quite unforeseen) playoff victory last year. They’ve moved on from Stefon Diggs (traded to Buf) and drafted Justin Jefferson (LSU), as well as saw Everson Griffen’s services vacate US Bank Stadium, but traded for Yannick Ngakoue (from Jax). Minnesota got younger with both of those moves, and while Diggs is very productive, when paying your QB premium $, you expect/need him to make-up for lack of receiving “talent.”
Ngakoue could present a problem for the Packers’ OL. Last year, Bryan Bulaga had his best season in a very solid career. He’s gone. However, the Packers have caught a major break with (arguably) Minnesota’s best player – Danielle Hunter #99 – being placed on IR, Green Bay only needs to worry about the newcomer – Yannick Ngakoue #91. Green Bay’s new RT- Billy Turner #77 (who was the worst starter for the Packers’ stellar OL in 2019) may be tasked with keeping Rodgers upright…that is if Turner clears his injury and is ready by kickoff.
Advantage? I believe the Packers’ offense (now in the 2nd year of LaFleur’s system) has the advantage over Minnesota’s defense. One of their most-impressive wins in 2019 came on Monday Night Football in Minneapolis to seal the division by winning 23-10. Winning on the road in Minnesota, as the Packers, is about a tough-a-place to play as anywhere. It’s always loud and they’re geared up like it’s the Super Bowl (because it is for them), and the Packers dominated in all 3-phases for all 4 quarters of that game. There’s no reason to think this won’t be like that atmosphere again…oh, except there won’t be ANY fans in attendance.
As for the Packers’ D v Vikings’ O? I think that’s a stale-mate. The Packers front should be able to get pressure on Cousins like last year, especially if 2019 1st round pick (Rashan Gary #52) takes a much-needed jump. Minnesota’s equalizer is HB Dalvin Cook #33. The only thing to slow him down are injuries. He’s as dynamic, if not more so, than Aaron Jones and is a true natural runner of the football. If Green Bay can force Cousins to beat them, I believe it’ll be 3 wins in a row for the Green & Gold. If it’s Dalvin Cook’s game…not so much.
The season is…well, here. Who knew? While everyone complained about the preseason, it was good for quite a few things.
Staying on schedule
Hyping up the season (aka creating interest)
Getting an idea of who, what, why, etc.
Now with the season just abruptly starting, it’s odd how little interest there seems to be amongst the masses. However, it’s still going on as scheduled…for now. Keep in mind there’s an additional playoff team this year, making 7 per conference. Leaving only the 1 seed with a BYE, which makes the regular that much more important. As always, I’ve predicted every single regular season game to come up with the records (while I don’t think every team will have these records, I do believe these will be the playoff seedings). Let’s look at how the 2020 season will shake out. If you recall, I’ve nailed the last 2 Super Bowl winners.
AFC North
NFC North
3Baltimore
11
5
3Green Bay
11
5
5Pittsburgh
11
5
Chicago
6
10
6Cleveland
11
5
Minnesota
6
10
Cincinnati
3
13
Detroit
4
12
South
South
2Houston
13
3
4New Orleans
10
6
7Tennessee
10
6
7Tampa Bay
9
7
Jacksonville
6
10
Atlanta
8
8
Indianapolis
5
11
Carolina
6
10
East
East
4New England
9
7
2Dallas
11
5
Buffalo
6
10
5Philadelphia
10
6
Miami
6
10
New York
3
13
New York
4
12
Washington
3
13
West
West
1Kansas City
14
2
1San Francisco
12
4
Denver
9
7
6Seattle
10
6
Los Angeles
7
9
Los Angeles
8
8
Las Vegas
6
10
Arizona
8
8
*The regular season finished standings seem somewhat realistic, especially if Patrick Mahomes continues this trend of being MegaMan. Some teams will surprise and some will disappoint, as always, but it’s the teams that have a real shot to win the Super Bowl that should draw your most attention, as well as your favorite team. How would the playoffs shake out given these seedings?
Wild Card
5Pittsburgh
@
4New England
6Cleveland
@
3Baltimore
7Tennessee
@
2Houston
5Philadelphia
@
4New Orleans
6Seattle
@
3Green Bay
7Tampa Bay
@
2Dallas
Divisional
3Baltimore
@
2Houston
5Pittsburgh
@
1Kansas City
4New Orleans
@
3Green Bay
7Tampa Bay
@
1San Francisco
Championship
3Baltimore
@
1Kansas City
3Green Bay
@
1San Francisco
Super Bowl LV
3Baltimore
v
3Green Bay
This may be tough to follow, but keep in the mind the 1 seed in each conference gets a BYE in the playoffs, where every other team must play 3 games to get to the Super Bowl. However, the 2 seed has an advantage of having at least 2 home games before having to travel. I feel somewhat confident in the Packers finishing 11-5 (again, assuming the season plays 16 which there’s no reason they shouldn’t, but that’s not why you’re here).
In my scenario, I have Green Bay getting the 3 seed, meaning they’d get 2 home playoff games, just like the 2 seed, should they win Wild Card weekend. We see a rematch from last year’s Divisional Playoff between 6th seeded Seattle and 3rd seeded Green Bay, which even in the old playoff format would be the same. Much like last year, Seattle (and Russell Wilson) isn’t nearly as good on the road as at home, especially in the playoffs. If memory serves me right, Wilson’s only 2 road playoff wins are his rookie year @ Washington with fellow rookie QB RGIII, and that defense was outstanding. The other from last year where Seattle traveled to a decimated Philadelphia team, and while leading the whole game, struggled to pull away. Expect much of the same in this rematch—Green Bay to take early control and hold on to the victory.
Enter the Divisional Round, which was the expected Div. Rd. matchup last year: Saints @ Packers. New Orleans inexplicably lost to Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, at home! The Saints have one of the most complete rosters in the NFL, but much like Seattle, are a far different animal away from their loud-ass home stadium. Drew Brees will just have turned 42 years old and having to play in single-digit temperatures, likely at night, is the best-case scenario for a Packers’ defense. Aaron Jones and the defense make enough plays in the blistering cold to come out with a close, hard-fought W and move on to the NFC Championship for yet another rematch with the 49ers.
Ahh yes, back to the place where the massacre started as soon as Rodgers bypassed an open Jimmy Graham on 3rd and short on the first offensive possession of the game (after the defense held a 3 & out on SF’s first) and instead dumped it off to Jamaal Williams with almost no chance to gain the first down. Then with confidence from his defense, rookie Head Coach Matt LaFleur decided to punt and we all know what happened after that…
For you that know me, know I have little confidence in the Packers winning another Super Bowl, especially with Rodgers, but I do think if this scenario plays out- Green Bay will be pulling out all the stops with their actual goal of getting past the NFC title game and getting to the Super Bowl. I too believe most fans will be happy as a clam if this were to occur, and that’s mostly why I think Green Bay will pull out the win – that and actually having another year with the Smith Bros., Amos, Savage, and an athletic MLB in Pettine’s defense…as well as LaFleur’s 2nd year as play-caller, it could resemble the Shanahan-led 9ers offense, which is run-focused.
So, let’s say the Packers find themselves in Tampa Bay for Super Bowl LV, as you can see I have them matched up vs. Baltimore. This is a decent match-up for the Packers. The Ravens’ D is outstanding, much like San Fran’s, and they’re a run-focused team, but in a different sense. Lamar Jackson (2019 NFL MVP) is so dynamic and absolutely kills you with his legs. The focus there should be to get a solid hit on him as often as possible, that will wear him down and ultimately could (should) lead to inaccurate throws and turnovers. Green Bay will likely need 3 turnovers (and be +3 in that category) to win the game. In the end, I think it’s a gut-wrenching loss, much like Super Bowl XXXII where the Packers will have the ball with about 3 minutes left and needing a touchdown to win and come up short.
Another great steppingstone, but we’re passed that phase as fans, aren’t we? Just think, if the world returns to normal and we’re allowed to watch camp, practice, preseason games, and hell even attend games in person…think of the setup coming into 2021 with the Packers having come off NFC title and Super Bowl losses in back-to-back years and the possibility of trading Aaron Rodgers should Jordan Love be ready to step in…
As the dumbest year marches on, we’re hoping for sports. What the Bucks and Brewers are doing is not sport…its practice, summer league, spring training, etc., but it’s not sports that we like. However, with sports trying (or making it seem like they are) to get going, let’s dive in.
Bucks—they stumbled in & out of the “Re-Start.” Milwaukee finished 3-5 and dropped the 1st game of the “playoffs” to the lowly Orlando Magic, who were missing multiple starters. Even if the Bucks pull it together and win the Larry O’Brien trophy, it won’t count, at least not to me. Without any fans, and a home-court advantage, this just continues to spit in the face of common sense…
Brewers—similar to the Bucks, the Brewers had their season postponed and, so far, have gotten out to a rough start (vs. expectations). Again, with this season so jacked up, it’s tough to keep the Brewers’ goals in-line. However, through 23 games, the Brewers are 11-12. All the Brewers have to do to reach the Covid-postseason is finish in the top 2 of the NL Central. As of right now, .500 seems to get the job done. St. Louis has the right idea of getting their whole roster this extremely non-lethal virus so A. they don’t have to play and can keep teams like Milwaukee chasing them and B. those players who tested positive will have 1 less potential reason for absence come crunch time. All in all, chalk this up to a non-official season/champion like the NBA and hope people calm the hell down over this non-lethal virus.
On to more important things, like football. The NFL was handling everything great, until it didn’t. This is how difficult it is these days to keep politics out of sports…anyway, let’s try! (I hate that word).
Packers—Green Bay opens camp in a solid spot, overall. If things were normal, would the Packers have a realistic shot at winning the Super Bowl? Not really. It’s been proven in order to win, the Packers need a top 2 scoring defense, and while the defense took major strides and improved up to 9th in scoring last year, they’re still a ways away from being a top-tier defense (think San Francisco or Baltimore). However, in the grand scheme, Green Bay is in a solid spot moving forward. There’s quite a bit of talent, young talent, spread across the roster. Kenny Clark (#97) just signed a huge extension, 4 years / $70 Million. Compared to Chris Jones (DT- Chiefs: 4 years; $85 Million) that’s a steal! Clark is arguably the 2nd best Defensive Tackle in the NFL (2nd to Aaron Donald).
Aside from the Clark extension, the Packers have a shot to contend for another bye in the postseas….oh wait, that’s right. The best playoff format in pro sports was just F**ked up, because. So now the only BYE will be earned by the 1 seed, thus having the 2 seed play on Wild Card/Opening weekend. As a great friend of mine refers to that weekend as “Scrub weekend.” Now the 1 seed is that much more important where you’re playing one less game AND have both playoff games at home. This year it may only make a difference for how many games as the NFL will likely cower to fear and bubble-up or something, but either way, the Packers’ goal should be to attain the 1 seed. 13-3 may do the trick again, but that took damn near 100% health last year – outside from Adams missing 4 games (Green Bay did go 4-0 without Adams…)
Predictions will come later as, obviously, a lot can change with both the team, league, and world for that matter. However, the ones everyone is keeping an eye on are the first 2 draft picks: QB Jordan Love #10; HB A.J. Dillon #28. Again, Love has a boatload of potential with a bazooka arm and Dillon has Lacy-like vision coupled with Thomas Jones like anger (how he runs)…dude LOVES contact. That should help in the 4th quarter when closing out games. There’s nothing more demoralizing to an opponent than when they know you’re running, and they want nothing to do with stopping it…enter THIGHS, A.J. Dillon. Okay, getting ahead of myself.
The issues and misconceptions around the NFL Draft.
Good teams don’t Draft for Need; Bad teams do
Immediate impact by Rookies?
Greg Cosell on Aaron Rodgers
How does this set up the Packers moving forward?
Rashan Gary project…
First, let’s take a look at the draft picks:
Round
Pick
Name
Position
College
1
26
Love, Jordan
QB
Utah State
2
62
Dillon, A.J.
HB
Boston College
3
94
Deguara, Josiah
TE/FB
Cincinnati
5
175
Martin, Kamal
LB
Minnesota
6
192
Runyan, Jon
OL
Michigan
6
208
Hanson, Jake
C
Oregon
6
209
Stepaniak, Simon
G
Indiana
7
236
Scott, Vernon
S
Texas Christian
7
242
Garvin, Jonathan
DL/Edge
Miami (FL)
Most, if not all, of Packer Nation is pissed about this draft. First and foremost for not only taking a QB in the 1st round, but trading UP to do so. A complete head-scratcher for many. My initial thought was sheer laughter as I knew 99% of Packer fans would erupt. Am I sick? Probably. Am I an idiot? Maybe. Has GM Brian Gutekunst and Head Coach Matt LaFleur shown the competence for me to trust them? So far.
For me, General Managers get 3-4 years of judgement free time from me. Like his predecessor, Ted Thompson, Brian Gutekunst inherited a somewhat trouble-some roster, but not in cap hell (Thompson was always great with the cap). After their last pick on Saturday, April 25th, it was clear the Packers were building a roster to fit LaFleur’s run-heavy scheme.
Love is a big QB with a big arm. He’s also athletic, which always helps, but can drive the ball and get it down field with minimal effort.
Dillon is just a brut. He’s a nightmare to tackle 1-on-1, and if he hits the 2nd level with any momentum, he’s a problem.
Deguara- while unknown, after watching some film he’s extremely athletic for a guy his size/build. Seems to fit the Kyle Juszczyk-type of player that wears #44 on the San Francisco 49ers. Creates matchup problems for the defense due to his versatility to line up in the back field, slot, or out wide and produce from each location.
I’m only aware of 2 of the other draft picks: Jon Runyan Jr.; Jake Hanson. Runyan’s father played for 14 seasons, most with Philadelphia and put together a pretty strong career. The NFL has taught us bloodlines mean something, and drafting his kid from Michigan will, at worst, add depth to a position always in need of depth. Hanson, I believe was the leader of the Oregon offensive line and did a fine job in the Rose Bowl vs. Wisconsin’s tough front 7. This seems like a safety guard to be the eventual replacement to Corey Linsley, who was a nice rookie in 2014, but never really improved and has been steady.
Now to cover the hot topics…why the Packers drafted the way they did.
Good teams don’t draft for (immediate) need. This statement is said this way for a purpose…good teams continue to pick the best football players available at the time, regardless of position. Unless they’re deciding between 2 or more players and they’re all considered damn near the same, then side with the one for need, but even then…
Example being, the Packers were gifted Aaron Rodgers in 2005, so they were left with no choice but to trade the pick or take him. Say what you will about how you think I view him, but that was a no-brainer choice, and he did net 1 Super Bowl W, which I don’t believe any other QB from that class has.
Do rookies make an immediate impact? Yes, of course they do. However, the better question is Do rookies make an immediate impact on Super Bowl-winning teams? That is the question for almost any team. Reason being, if your team is close enough to win the Super Bowl, and you’re addressing needs through the draft, odds are:
Those needs really aren’t all that dire
You’re further away from winning the Super Bowl than you truly think
Your team actually isn’t in contention and why the hell are you drafting for need vs. adding the best player available? (Hint: the correct answer is C)
Greg Cosell appeared on the Rich Eisen podcast/radio show the following week after the draft, and lent some really good insight into the reasons Green Bay decided to grab Jordan Love. I’d suggest listening, since apparently everyone has extra time these days.
How does this set up the Packers moving forward? I hinted at this above, but look for the Packers to appear a bit closer to the 2019 San Francisco 49ers or the 2016 Atlanta Falcons. While highlighted by the big plays, those were run-based offenses that allowed the QB to make easy throws and manipulate defenses rather easily, which means that offense doesn’t really require super star pass catchers, but all 11 on the same page, all the time.
Green Bay now has a solid Offensive Line depth (again, after losing TJ Lang) and a very, very solid stable of Halfbacks:
#33 Aaron Jones
#30 Jamaal Williams
#28 A.J. Dillon
#22 Dexter Williams
#32 Tyler Ervin
Lastly, 12 months after I (and many others) criticized the draft pick of Rashan Gary, let’s look at why…am I a hypocrite for doing so? While I’d understand that argument, here’s why that was far different:
Gary was considered to be the 3rd best defender…from his school in that draft alone (behind Devin Bush- ILB and Chase Winovich- Edge Rusher).
He never really produced when he should have in college
There was another player that not only fit need, but did produce and was the 3rd best defender from his school (Clemson) which was, and is, light years ahead of Michigan…that player is Christian Wilkins
Did the Gary pick make sense? Sure, like OL, you really can’t have enough pass rushers.
i.e. 2018 to 2019 Baltimore Ravens.
i.e. 2019 to 2020 Green Bay Packers.
Each team lost 1-2 edge rusher so not having to address that immediate need will always be relieving.
Should the 12th overall pick contribute? Yes, a bit, and he was drafted to do so, even if the Packers got more from the Smith Bros. than expected.
Lastly, the Packers were not expected to contend for the Super Bowl, so as long as they took the best player available on their board, I’ll understand.
If you’re still here, I greatly appreciate it, and hopefully if you were upset, mad, frustrated, or in search of why I’m not any of those, you at least have an understanding as to how the brain trust of the Green Bay Packers is operating and why it may be a good thing.