The Green Bay Packers have enjoyed their well-earned bye in the 2020 NFL playoffs (yes 2020 as that’s how the NFL tracks their entire season of when they kick-off, I like it).  It’s been well-documented now, but Green Bay signed T Jared Veldheer from Indianapolis’ Practice Squad (he started at LT @ Buffalo in the Wild Card Round).  He has since tested positive for, well yeah, I’ll leave it there.

When working to figure out how the Packers will fare in each match-up, if you’ve been reading along, you’ll see I track their rankings in the major categories (Offensive and Defensive ranks among yardage and points).  With an entire season under our belts, teams’ rankings give more light to that and I think is a very good gauge as to a team’s quality (likeliness to win and move on). 

Of the main stats to track, especially the deeper in a season you are, is total point differential.  While it could be a bit misleading, you’ll notice a trend in the top 10:

1. Ravens +165
2. Saints +145
3. Packers +140
4. Buccaneers +137
5. Bills +126
6. Chiefs +111
7. Steelers +104
8. Colts +89
9. Seahawks +88
10. Rams +76

While each of these team made the postseason, you can see the rankings of these teams seem rather accurate on a strength basis, aside from Kansas City, whom sat their starters in week 17 and lost by 17 points.  It’s safe to assume they would’ve won, had they tried, thus giving them at least a 20-point swing (putting them about +131).  Which puts them right at or near Tampa Bay, with whom they clashed and won by a close margin after a record-setting 1^st half performance.  My point, is while this is nothing to live by, it’s a great barometer of each team’s power potential. 

I’ve taken this a step further and averaged in their Offensive and Defensive rankings to give a true Power Ranking of sorts. Without getting into the details (I’m happy to share if you ask), it determines the most balanced team.  For example, the Packers finished the season with a 6.00 power ranking; i.e., they had the 1^st ranked offense, 13^th ranked defense, finished 7^th in turnover differential, and 3^rd in net points.  Add those together and it averages to a 6^th ranking…of course many teams will have similar numbers as they’re averages, but in the graph below, you get an idea of true strength/balance of each team.  Pretty nerdy stuff, but some may like it.

To give this further context, you can see the top 4 teams all remain, with the lowest remaining of Cleveland and LA Rams (also low seeds, 6s).  How have the last 10 Super Bowl champions ranked in this manner?  Glad you asked:

They averaged 6.6 ranking, which gives you an idea of teams that truly “Got in and got hot.”  I’ve always claimed that 2010 Packers team was far better than revered.  Had Rodgers not been concussed, they go 12-4 with the likely 2 seed and nothing is considered an upset.  However, looking at those BAD teams that won (2011 Giants, 2015 Broncos, and 2012 Ravens), those are the outliers.  Meaning 30% of the past winners wouldn’t be considered Legit Contenders.  What does this all mean for Saturday?

Everyone will highlight the Packers’ 1^st scoring offense vs. the Rams’ 1^st (in pass, total yards, and points) defense.  However, the key may be the other match-up.  Yes, everyone should be well aware of ALL WORLD DL #99 Aaron Donald and superstar CB #20 Jalen Ramsey, and the key offensive component LA features is WR #10 Cooper Kupp.  He’s a modern-day Wes Welker or poor man’s Julian Edelman.  Very effective and crucial on 3^rd downs for the Rams offense.  What (it seems like) EVERYONE is forgetting, is that Jaire Alexander is arguably every bit as good as Ramsey.  While not as tall, just as effective.  Also, to note, the previous matchup from these two teams, could be considered Jaire’s coming out party.  Alexander had 5 passes defensed, and made his mark as a rising star.  Actually, the Packers (at the time, a far inferior team) controlled that game essentially throughout.  The Packers put such pressure on LA, that they were down 10-0 and faked a punt just to get momentum.  The momentum swung, twice, once when GB had the ball, up 10-0, on their own 1 and on the first play, Aaron Jones was tackled in the backfield for a safety.  Then the final dagger, was after GB had driven down for a go-ahead TD (27-26), LA rebutted with a FG drive of their own (up 29-27) with 1:56 left in the game, KR Ty Montgomery fumbled and the offense never saw the ball again.  What’s changed since then (aside from the Rams updating their logo and jerseys) is LA getting Jalen Ramsey on defense, and the Packers completely flipping the roster (for the better, obviously) and becoming far more balanced. 

Now this game is at Lambeau, and while the forecast isn’t too lethal (high of 36°and a low of 25°), the Packers will deem this to be “warm,” whereas the Rams will think this is “cold,” or at least “not that bad.”  Is there much stock to put into it?  Probably not, but the Packers are (finally) built for this weather.  They feature as good a backfield as anyone in the NFL, and all 3 backs offer different attributes.  Aaron Jones is dynamic, Jamaal Williams is steady (pass blocking too, which can throw teams for a loop when in), and A.J. Dillon is a bruiser.  All capable of being a feature back in any given game.  LaFleur has been masterful in utilizing them to produce maximum results—couple that with a QB who’s fully bought in and in sync—it seems that Packer nation should have little to worry about. 

Bravo if you’re still here with me.  When discussing with a good friend this week, he mentioned “I like our chances too, beat this team 9 times out of 10…but football.” Yes, the wording is intentionally choppy, and it’s important because the message is delivered.  If you’re still scared/worried, keep in mind this Rams team lost to the Jets just (what will be) 27 days earlier, at home, in a must-win, when the Jets were benefitting from losing…Devil’s Advocate: The Jets beat the LA Rams.  Aka, the far inferior team can win, sometimes.

Rams 17
Packers 24

Season: 13-3
Overall: 68-35

*Yes, I believe I’ve picked the Packers every game so far, it’s technically worked. *

A confidence-builder, and possibly a crow serving to the entire Packer nation (yours truly included). 

Review~ the Packers’ offense did what many expected them to do, but the defense pleasantly surprised many.  While the game was essentially meaningless (entering both weeks 16 and 17, Green Bay still needs to beat Chicago to secure the 1 seed- or needing Seattle to lose). 

Defensive Coordinator, Mike Pettine, has been outspoken about his focus on getting to the passer even if it’s to disregard stopping the run.  This past week showed he’s willing/capable of committing to stopping the run, and the Packers showed how effective it can be when you take away your opponents’ strength.  Keep in mind, Tennessee entered the game with the highest scoring offense in the league (tied with KC).  They’re a balanced offense with a solid TE (Smith), 2 solid WRs (Davis and Brown), the NFL’s best HB (Henry), and a very solid QB (Tannehill).  14 points.  If the Packers hold their opponents to 14 points, I’ll guarantee a victory every time.

From my statement above, Crow-Server.  There were a select-few who thought the A.J. Dillon pick was awesome.  Goes without saying, he proved why.  However, I admit that Rashan Gary has seemed to arrive, and I whiffed there.  While I wasn’t sure if he was going to be downright awful, I’ve always graded him vs. Christian Wilkins (DT from Clemson, drafted by Miami 1 pick after Gary).  It seems that Gary is now a legit pass-rusher, getting constant push, which disrupts the passing game in the best way.  He had, possibly, his best game as a pro vs. Tennessee.  While the Titans’ OL isn’t meant for pass-blocking, Gary did what he was supposed to do and got after the QB, and created havoc in the backfield to not allow Henry to keep in rhythm. 

All in all, a great confidence-booster, but other than that, a meaningless game as week 17 is still a must-win.

Preview~ Bear week!  Chicago enters the game with their season on the line.  If they win, they’re in (7^th seed).  If they lose, they’ll need Arizona to lose to Los Angeles.  Expect Chicago, and Nagy, to pull out all the stops.  When it comes to that, Nagy usually gets way too cute and completely bites him in the ass.  Also, while Mitch has played well since “earning” his starting job back (3-2, with a 99.3 passer rating), the one game where he wasn’t so great was vs. Green Bay.  This is typical, as for some reason (not a surprise to me or many of you), if you keep a QB like Mitch in the pocket and force him to throw, consistently over the course of a game the odds are vastly in your favor.  He’s not consistently accurate and will not always make the obvious-right decision which leads to awful turnovers or a lack of 3^rd down conversions.  Where Mitch is effective is when he’s running/scrambling AND has a clean pocket – however, he needs wide-open targets to do damage and the Packers have been far better with coverage than in years passed…

By now you’ve heard the earth-shattering news about all-world LT David Bakhtiari suffering a season-ending knee injury.  While this is an epic blow, the Packers have gone 3 games without #69 this year and fared OK.  They were weeks 7-9 (@ SF, v Min, @ Hou), and while the competition is none in the playoffs, the Packers won 2 of those games, and would’ve won all 3 if not for Dalvin Cook going bonkers.  In those games, the Packers gave up sacks: 1 for no loss; the other for a loss of 11 (which might’ve been on Rodgers).  The Packers also were without C Corey Linsley for 3 games and fared very well.  With the return of Linsley last week, really boosting the OL, it mitigates the blow of the loss of Bakhtiari.  There are options of what Green Bay can do, but Pro Bowl Guard (2^nd year man) #74 Elgton Jenkins, is so versatile and special that he can fill-in quite nicely at LT if that’s what’s asked of him.  Packers OL coach, Adam Stenavich, has done a remarkable job since joining the staff.  Everyone should have the utmost confidence in him that he’ll get the Packers’ strength (yes, the OL) in top form.

The other news was Green Bay adding Snacks (Damon Harrison #98).  He’s a huge body that can only add depth in the DL rotation.  Listed at 6’3” 339lbs, and with quite a bit of experience playing at a high-level, his production will be called upon and likely have a positive effect come January.  Running the ball is essential to win in cold weather, and stopping the run (see week 16 vs. Derrick Henry) is the best way for the defense to dominate. 

The major difference between this match-up and last is the Bears will have their stud DL, Akiem Hicks #96, back.  He’s a major force in the middle and dictates what the offense is able to do.  He’s such a disruptive force that just pounding away up the middle may not be the best method. 

Sticking with the Bears’ defense, they’ll be without 2 of their top-3 cornerbacks.  Buster Skrine and solid standout rookie, Jaylon Johnson are set to miss week 17, thus opening up MVS for some major action…  I doubt the Packers will be able to hang 41 again, mainly due to Hicks playing and Bakhtiari missing, but the Packers offense should be able to move the ball and control the game.  Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but win the turnover battle and win the game.  It’s that simple. 

Expect to get the Bears’ best shot.

Packers 27
Bears 21

Season: 12-3
Overall: 67-35

Review~ After carefully re-watching the Panthers’ game, there were a couple of items that stood out. 

• Rashan Gary has either made great strides (he has improved a bit from last year) OR Preston Smith has regressed; or both.
• LaFleur stuck with the ground game and it translated to an ugly win, which was all that was needed.
• Red-Zone/Gold-Zone + Goal-Line Offense is outstanding in execution and efficiency.
• Inside LBs are progressing, especially the rookies: Kamal Martin (#54); Krys Barnes (#51).
• Darnell Savage is vastly improving, and he was already solid to begin with…
• With Savage’s improvement, Pettine moved Adrian Amos inside on passing-situations to use his athleticism to cover quick crossers and tight ends; very effective.
• Allen Lazard is very consistent and a solid 2^nd WR in this offense.  He fits the scheme quite well.
• Mason Crosby is as reliable as possibly expected- that could translate into a weapon in January in the cold.
• The Panthers missed McCaffrey, there were quite a few holes that either weren’t hit on-time, or just missed altogether which could’ve swung this game into a much closer battle.

Current Standing~ again, as writing this (Sun morning), the Packers sit in the 1 seed and if (my math is correct) the Rams best Seattle this afternoon, the Packers could clinch home-field advantage with a win.  Meaning the Seahawks would have 5 losses, the Saints 4 losses, and the Packers 12 wins.  With Green Bay holding the H2H tiebreaker over New Orleans (wow, looking back that win was monumental) the NFC runs through Lambeau AND Green Bay earns the ONLY bye in this years’ updated playoff setup.

Preview~ enter, possibly, the toughest challenge yet: the Tennessee Titans.  Led by Head Coach, Mike Vrabel, Tennessee prides themselves on punching teams in the face.  A typical kryptonite for Packer teams over the last decade.  The Titans’ lead star is Derrick Henry.  The most aggressive/physical runner of the football since possibly Earl Campbell.  The Packers’ rush defense will get the toughest test possible, at the proper time.  If Green Bay can not only win this game, but “hold” Henry in check, that should solidify any concerns about whether Green Bay can win the Super Bowl…maybe (Mahomes). 

As you can see, each teams’ offense possesses a distinct advantage…After the 2^nd half malfunction, the Packers slipped from the top-scoring offense allowing Tennessee and Kansas City to upgrade to a tie for 1^st, and the Packers slipped to 3^rd.  This could be a high-scoring affair, but I believe the best way to win is to own the line of scrimmage and commit to the ground game as LaFleur did last week vs. Carolina.  Henry is going to get going a bit, but him having 125-160 yards and 1-2 TDs doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t blow this team out of the water.  The thing that sticks in my mind is Tennessee getting absolutely blasted by a Baker Mayfield-led Browns team, where (while it’s not your typical Browns team) the Titans found themselves down 38-7 at halftime, at Nissan Stadium!  Rodgers should be able to conduct a similar symphony and get back to becoming the top-scoring team in the NFL.

Titans 28
Packers 41

Season: 11-3
Overall: 66-35

Review~ anyone with 2 eyes – or 1 eye for that matter – could see the connection between Rodgers and Adams as something more than special.  The two connected on another touchdown in 8 consecutive games.  This is the life-blood of the offense, maybe the team.  The defense seems to shut teams down in stretches of games, but never for an entire game.  This is all well and good in the regular season, but come playoff time is a dangerous way to live. 

The Lions opened up with the short-passing game and it worked, as it usually does, vs. a Bend-but-don’t-Break defense.  For those that don’t understand, the concept of a Bend But Don’t Break D is to force the offense to put together long, methodical drives to score.  This puts the onus on the offense to not have commit a mistake (holding penalty, sack, or turnover) – the likelihood obviously increases with longer drives.  If Stafford is a good enough QB to captain a below average roster down the field and score a TD, it’s a bit disconcerting what a Brees, Wilson, or Brady could do…either way, the entire concept is banking on Rodgers being able to convert at a higher rate vs. their defenses as opposed to them converting vs. Green Bay’s…which is always the case in any game, ever. Hence why QB’s are judged by Super Bowl titles.  I digress…the Packers did what they do, scored 5 times out of their 8 drives, with their last drive closing out the game.  Even at that rate, it seemed like they weren’t hitting on all cylinders, but what will be key moving forward is the run game.  Holding the ball for long drives and keeping their defense fresh and wearing out the opponents’ D will be crucial to how far this team can go.  Green Bay dominated time of possession once again, holding the ball for over 35 minutes.  They do that AND win the turnover battle (or don’t lose it), I can’t see how they lose a game.

Current Standing~ with the help from Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia, the Packers move into the 1^st seed in the NFC playoff picture due to the Eagles beating the Brees-less Saints.  New Orleans has the toughest matchup possible this week, hosting Kansas City, with minimal to no fans.  Should the Packers get a little help from Washington (hosts Seattle) and the Chiefs (@ Saints), and the Packers take care of business tonight, they could be sitting pretty heading into the final 2 games of the regular season. 

Preview~ enter the Carolina Panthers.  This is a bad football team with some top talent, so there are a few guys to keep an eye on.  Obviously, their best player is star running back, Christian McCaffery.  Last year in Lambeau he had 26 touches for 141 yards and a TD, which was actually a decent job by the Packers’ D…points to how good he is.  As I write this, McCaffery is listed as “Doubtful,” which doesn’t stop their ESPN beat writer from picking them to have a “last-minute comeback win over the Packers.”  If the Packers find a way to lose this game, you can be all but certain they have zero shot at winning the Super Bowl.  Super Bowl-caliber-winning teams don’t lose late-December home games to crap teams missing their star player. 

You can see the Packers, once again, have the distinct advantage when they have the ball.  They’re facing the 20^th-ranked defense (in terms of points allowed) and should have no problem hanging another 30+.  It’s an even match-up when the Panthers have the ball, but even then, their playmakers are at the Wide Receiver position, no longer the HB or TE (Olsen gone is a huge help too).  Teddy Two-Gloves should see a fierce pass-rush, hopefully from rising helper, Rashan Gary (if he keeps progressing, I’ll gladly admit I was wrong) and maybe Preston Smith can contribute something this year?

Keep pace…

Panthers 16
Packers 38

Season: 10-3
Overall: 65-35

Green Bay did what was needed, handled a far inferior team.  It got a little close for comfort there after the punt return for 6 (special teams has been atrocious so far, and must be remedied before January).  If you’ve been reading with, or know, me you see that QB-play is essentially the difference between winning and losing, regardless of regular season vs. postseason.  Not just stats, but overall marching the offense down the field and making key plays at key times.  Rodgers has, in each of the 9 wins, been magnificent, but in the 3 losses can point to key points where the offense has failed.  In last week’s game, Rodgers was once again, very solid.

Review~ notice when Philly got back into the game, the Packers’ offense went 3 & out on consecutive drives, much like the Colts game when up 28-17 in the 3^rd quarter, the offense could’ve iced the game (either by taking over momentum or building a large enough lead, late OR both).  Also, the offense did a fine job closing the game with a complete team-like effort on Aaron Jones’ 77-yard TD.  What’s needed for that type of run?  Downfield blocking, and you’ll notice both MVS and Bakhtiari blocking downfield the entire way, hell, Bakhtiari damn near beat everyone to the end zone (I guess he reached almost 17 mph)!  You get that type of effort in January (hopefully in Lambeau), this team will be impossible to beat.  It’s pretty safe to say that as long as the offense limits 3 & outs and doesn’t turn the ball over, they can’t be beaten.  The offense is too good…the defense, well…it should be good enough if the offense continues to be who they are…

Since entering my 20’s, I’ve gone from a players fan to a team fan.  What I mean by that is player accomplishments are meaningless to me—aka Rodgers winning MVP is moot as I’d rather the team win the Super Bowl, because what good is a player winning MVP if the team doesn’t win a title?  You know the answer, aside from dividing a fan base due to arguing, nothing.  Rodgers is, however, playing at an MVP-level and it’s reflected on the team’s record.  He was near flawless again, as was Adams and the offensive line in this game vs. Philly, let’s keep it rolling.

Preview~ travelling to Detroit always seems to be an issue.  Hell, even the last 3 games vs. Detroit (regardless of venue) the Packers have come out quite sluggish.  Keep in mind, last year the Packers never lead in all 120 minutes of game action vs. the Lions, but Mason Crosby field goals as time expired gave them 2 victories.  Earlier this year, the Packers got down early, 14-3.  This was due to Detroit committing early to the run, then for (what bad teams do) some reason, abandoning attacking the Packers’ weakness and allowed Green Bay to gain a rhythm and completely takeover the game—scoring an unanswered 31 points with a pick-6 by Chandon Sullivan. 

Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur should be salivating at this matchup, again.  The Packers are going to see one of the worst defenses in the entire league, in a dome, sans fans.  This should resemble a 7-on-7 practice for Rodgers.  Look for Green Bay to get healthy, experience, and rolling heading into the most important part of the season.  Tavon Austin should get some playing time with Tyler Ervin hitting IR again, as well as John Runyan possibly starting without having to see all-world DT Fletcher Cox.  Usually, the Packers come out foggy at Detroit, and struggle.  While it’s a division rival (as are all of Green Bay’s division opponents), this Detroit team has gone through a Coach firing, injuries, and just don’t know how to close out games (aside from last week at Chicago, which was hilarious). 

Look for Green Bay to keep running and getting (hopefully) A.J. Dillon some reps as he comes off the Covid list, he could be a key cog down the stretch, a bruising runner in the cold is always welcome.

Current Standing~ after getting a little help from the Giants (beat Seattle), the Packers sit alone in the 2^nd seed, as of now.  Keep in mind, should Green Bay win out, then New Orleans would only have to drop 1 game for Green Bay to obtain the very important 1 seed.  This week, we’re rooting for Philadelphia to best the Taysom Hill-led Saints…Jalen Hurts is getting the start for the Eagles and it may just be enough of a spark for a needed upset.

Packers 34
Lions 21

Season: 9-3
Overall: 64-34

Review~ the Packers showed what turnovers can do to a far superior team…blast an inferior team out of the water.  Then, like week 1, the Packers’ defense allows a concerning number of garbage-time yards and points.

The major difference, easily seen by anyone, was QB-play.  Trubisky finished: 26/46, 242 yards, 3TD, 2INT, 74.7 RAT.  Whereas Rodgers lit up the Bears’ 6^th ranked defense for: 21/29, 211 yards, 4TD, 0INT, 132.3 RAT.  Completely controlling the game and walking away with an easy victory.  The issue, as typical with this season is the defense.  This sentence may get lost in the fray, but the defense will likely show up enough to give the offense an opportunity to win the game and after the missed opportunity…well, let’s focus on the now.

Preview~ enter the Philadelphia Eagles (3-7-1, 3^rd in the NFC East, .5 GB).  Head Coach, Doug Pederson is coaching for his job – as of this morning, it seems that this is a must-win in order for the 2017 Super Bowl-winning Head Coach to keep his job.  This is what happens when you tie your career to the wrong QB (keep in mind, they decided to let Nick Foles walk and pay Carson Wentz). 

The Eagles are awful on offense and actually decent at holding their opponents on defense…however are middle of the road as far as points allowed.  My guess, without watching ALL of their games, is they’re awful in the field position game – translating to their opponents not having to drive all that far to score, because they do eventually score.  By solely looking at the match-up, the Packers shouldn’t have an issue with the Eagles…then again this is another opportunity for the defense to shut down a potentially dangerous offense.  Some (me included) still believe Doug Pederson is a solid play-caller and offensive mind.  If Green Bay can hold Philadelphia to under 20 points, that would be quite the accomplishment – at least this season.  Rodgers & Co. should keep pace and hang another 30+ on this Eagles team, at home.  It also shouldn’t come as a surprise if they hang their third 40-burger, which would greatly help the D get into a groove. 

As it currently sits, the Packers are the 2^nd seed in the NFC and need to keep pace, and root for both Seattle and New Orleans to lose.  The Packers currently hold the tiebreaker over each, but never hurts to gain ground.

Soo…go Falcons and Giants.

Eagles 24
Packers 41

Season: 8-3
Overall: 63-34

Review~ 4 turnovers.  That’s it.  That was the game.  The Packers offense showed, when in rhythm, they can do what they want.  The defense did a good job on limiting the points off turnovers, 6.  The issue is once the gates were opened, the flood came through.  They still were able to beat the Colts’ OL to the point of attack to have 5 holding calls in the final 8 plays to keep them in the game.

The Packers also lost time of possession 27:49 to 35:01.  The offense had 3 opportunities to ice this game:

1. 1^st drive of the 2^nd half, after the Colts only scored a field goal, the offense could’ve driven down and scored a TD, which would’ve made it 35-17, essentially icing it.
2. Rodgers did a good job (great catch by MVS on that bomb) driving down the field to ensure the tie, but missed a wide open Tonyan on the final play where he tunnel-visioned Adams (usually not a bad play).
3. In OT, they started off with a nicely designed swing route to Aaron Jones for 8 yards until the WR screen hit MVS which looked like it’d gain a 1^st down and fumbled it on a slap. 

The Defense did enough to win, but not with 4 turnovers (if Shepherd was cut, that’s not the worst thing). 

Preview~ Green Bay started off the season with 4 straight wins and up 10-0, and the ball vs. a talented Tampa Bay team, and since then has completely squandered their turnover differential in the 6 games that have followed (including @ TB).  For now, that’s the best indicator of the Packers’ chances of winning…winning (or not losing) the turnover battle. 

We’re at the point of the season where a team’s net points determine its true strength.  Meaning, total points scored minus points given up.  Green Bay currently sits 9^th at +50.  That would seem about right.  The teams “ranked” ahead of the Packers all seem to be as good or better:

• Pit +124
• KC +107
• NO +73
• Bal +73
• Ind +68
• TB +67
• Mia +62
• LAR +51

The Packers have an opportunity to increase their margin of victory by blasting Chicago, which would also do some serious damage to their postseason aspirations.

Chicago is downright terrible.  They’re the 31^st ranked offense in both yards and scoring, so the Packers’ defense has an opportunity to correct the issues they’ve experienced, unless after 10 games they are who they are – which is average.  What’s hilarious about all of this is the 2018 AP NFL Coach of the Year, Matt Nagy, is still the head coach of the Bears and he’s the lone reason their offense is garbage.  My cousin picked this out initially – he loves being the smartest guy in the room, all the time.  Sometimes LaFleur develops those tendencies as well, but is fairly quick to adapt and adjust…i.e. see the Divisional round game vs. Seattle.  In addition to this, Chicago is choosing to go back to Mitch Trubisky, which should alleviate some heartburn for Packer nation as Foles isn’t scared to lose which is why he’s sometimes terrible, but also why he shines in the postseason.  Make Mitch throw and you should be able to hold them under 20 points.

Let’s put it this way, as it currently stands, the Packers are the 3 seed and this being the inaugural season where there’s only 1 team per conference to receive the bye, it’s even more of an advantage to lock up the 1 seed.  Now the Packers will need help in that department, but first things first, beat the Bears.

Bears 17
Packers 34

Season: 7-3
Overall: 62-34

Review~ the Packers committed 2 turnovers, although it acted as 3 when you factor in the punt return for a TD.  However, Green Bay couldn’t have played much worse, they still came away with a victory which is more of a show at how poor Jacksonville really is.  The puzzling thing is Jacksonville’s lone victory came against the Colts in week 1…really doesn’t make sense, does it?  Yes, the Jaguars had Gardner Minshew quarterbacking in week 1, and that may have made the difference, but if that’s the case, then Rodgers and Green Bay should have no issue, right?

Preview~ Indy features one of the best defenses in the NFL.  As mentioned above, this team is tough to figure out.  They lost to Jacksonville in week 1, at home.  Then they plastered the Titans (albeit on short rest) last week.  Frank Reich (head coach) has been quite good so far, and has Rivers playing well enough to be 6-3 and looking like a solid, balanced team. 

The matchup looks about as even as you could find in the NFL – as far as rankings go.  The Packers present an average defense to battle the average offense of the Colts.  Adversely, the Packers’ offense ranks 3^rd in points and faces the 4^th defense of the Colts.  This should be as good a test as any that presents Green Bay this season.  Well, this and next week (Chicago, currently 7^th) will be great tests, and this is in a dome so no better time to burn a good D than now. 

The experts in the desert show this to be a close game, Indianapolis is favored by 1.5 (as of Friday) with an over/under of 49.  I think the Packers play much better in the dome and get the offense back on track with the return of Lazard. 

Packers 27
Colts 24

Season: 7-2
Overall: 62-33

Review~ the Packers pounded the JV-squad San Fran put on the field last Thursday night, as they should have.  Rodgers played his best game, probably since the Dallas game last season.  Statistically he was lights out.  Davante Adams did solidify himself as a top 5 WR (if not the best) in the NFL.  Rodgers still throws off his back foot from time-to-time, which didn’t come anywhere near haunting him, but easily could (and likely will) come January.  There’s not much to really cover, the defense was fine and the offense moved the ball at will.  Much should be the same tomorrow vs. Jacksonville, and Green Bay has a chance to really solidify some things to gain serious momentum moving to the 2^nd half of the season. 

Preview~ enter, possibly, the worst team in the NFL, the Jacksonville Jaguars.    Much like the week 8 match-up vs. Minnesota, Green Bay should have no issue with the Jags.  Then again…

As you can see, the Jaguars are awful in every category, and they’re an awful team.  The Packers have a chance to get their defensive ranking up in the top 10, for yards at least.  The points are most indicative of a true D.  As of right now Green Bay’s defense is average to below average.  If the Jaguars have any shot, it’s winning the turnover battle by at least 2 or 3, or a couple of special team plays that give them free points.  So, since there’s not much to say, look for the Packers to get rookie A.J. Dillon going and continue to conserve Aaron Jones. 

Jaguars 17
Packers 38

Season: 6-2
Overall: 61-33

Review~ that’s a tough game to get out of your mind…well it at least sticks with me in the case in the sense that Do Super Bowl winning (key word there) teams have a showing like that at all during their championship season?  I’ve gone back in years past, but it doesn’t matter…the answer is Of course they have, however the only one that sticks to me is the 2003 New England Patriots.  Their week 1 loss in Buffalo (31-0) was the same caliber of loss.  The Patriots ended up 14-2 and in week 17 they beat that same Buffalo team 31-0…

This is all looking for reason the Packers can still win the Super Bowl and the item I continue to get hung up on is this team (Rodgers too) continuously needs to have an elite defense, which they were in route to having last year, and they do not.  It’s obvious, but the Packers were tasked with stopping Dalvin Cook and making Cousins beat you…instead, Cook had a career game, to the likes of which he’ll never have again.  Is that scheme?  Personnel?  Both?  I’m going with scheme.  Pettine has openly admitted to “not caring” about stopping the run because this is “a passing league, and you must stop the pass.”  I’m old-school, run the ball and stop the run is the shortest path to victory in football.

On top of that, as soon as the Packers’ offense got away from the run game (not sure whom to blame, QB or HC, or both) it lost all rhythm and suffered greatly.  This Packers’ team is built to play off one another and if the offense is rolling then the defense can get in a groove, but it’s the offense’s responsibility (fair or not, it’s how its constructed) to initiate and dictate the mood, the defense plays off that and creates opportunities from there.  Also, in the regular season, offenses can put such pressure on the opposing QB to play perfect and that compounds upon itself (see Minnesota last week, although I’ll contest the Packers’ offense did that to themselves). 

Preview~ the 49ers enter this game completely maimed with injuries.  Not one player that touched the ball in the NFC title game will be active tonight.  The main issue?  Kyle Shanahan.  The guy plays chess vs. our defense and since the 2016 NFC title game (played in Jan ’17) has shredded the Packers’ D.  Even when he joined SF as head coach and traveled to Lambeau on a Monday Night in October of 2018, Shanahan had C.J. Beathard with the following stat line: 16/23; 245 yards; 2 TD; 1 INT; 115.3 rating.   Tonight’s starter, Nick Mullens, is far better than Beathard and could easily present a problem again for Green Bay’s defense if they can get the ground game going.  Mullens follows the playbook and executes, which when done in (any offense, especially) Shanahan’s offense could be lethal.

Checking the matchup chart above, it seems to be even across the ball.  The advantage that I see sides with Green Bay for 2 reasons: health; quarterback. 

Win the turnover battle, hell get greedy and let’s get 2 or 3 from their quandary of backups on offense.   Should the Packers open the game hot, like they have the previous 7, look for Shanahan to continue with the ground game until he absolutely can’t…

I may be picking this game with my heart, but what the hell…

Packers 27
49ers 21

Season: 5-2
Overall: 60-33