Review~ that was a solid team win vs. a hungry Pittsburgh team.  I hate complaining about officiating, yet again, the non-OPI call on the TD that Jaire “gave up” was obvious.  There’s a reason Jaire missed the ball, let alone was in prime position to intercept it, and came up empty?  Ok…

After that initial possession, Green Bay took over the game, and again owned the line of scrimmage—which allows the QB a large margin of error in order to win the game.  Rodgers does one thing really well…he’s turnover-adverse, especially in the regular season.  This fit well for how the team has performed over the last 3 weeks. 

Injuries are mounting up—which was inevitable based on the health of this team the previous 2 seasons, but with how loaded the roster truly is, they’ve been able to withstand them so far.  Losing Jaire Alexander for an extended period of time is crushing, considering he’s (arguably) the best corner in the NFL, and no, he didn’t “give up a TD on the first drive of the game,” but that’s already been covered (pun intended). 

Kenny Clark continues to receive zero recognition, other than the Packers extending him last year…he’s virtually unblockable with 1 offensive lineman, and vs. Pittsburgh was pushing double-teams into the backfield causing havoc—that too will be needed come January if this team wants to actually accomplish anything of significance (winning a Super Bowl). 

Lastly, the offensive line did more than hold their own, they created running spaces and the WRs (led by Allen Lazard) can block, and block extremely well.  There were multiple times where you saw Lazard (#13) and rookie Amari Rodgers (#8) blocking downfield, and giving the ball carrier plenty of opportunity to gain extra yards…often.  A great sign to see, and something that LaFleur’s offense which is predicated.

Preview~ While signing Stephon Gilmore would’ve been ideal, especially with the injury to Jaire Alexander, signing Jaylon Smith (formerly from the Cowboys) may be an even better addition for the long-term.  Smith is 26 years old, with likely his best football ahead of him.  Why many of the “experts” think he’s a replacement for Za’Darius Smith (edge rusher), Smith is a true Inside Linebacker (ILB), and can cover a decent amount.  Think of him as a far better Blake Martinez.  The guy is athletic, fast (4.44 forty-yard dash), and can tackle (154 tackles in 16 starts last year, avg. 139 tackles/season in the previous 3-full seasons, which he started all 16 games).  He could be an incredible pick-up for a defense that hasn’t had a GREAT inside linebacker since Desmond Bishop.  Hopefully he’ll get some snaps this week in Cincinnati, but likely will be inserted into the Krys Barnes slot of playing, and may be asked to rush the passer from all over the field.  Good players are easy to find methods in which to use…he’s one of those players.

Matchup~ the Packers’ and Bengals’ record (3-1 apiece) shows to be an accurate description of the strength of each team.  They’ve beaten lesser teams, and each team dropped a game (with hindsight) they probably shouldn’t have. 

2021	GB Off.	vs.	Cin Def.
Rush	92.5 (24)		93.5 (9)
Pass	225.5 (24)		229.5 (13)
Total	318.0 (25)		323.0 (7)
Points	23.8 (14)		18.8 (8)
	GB Def.	vs.	Cin Off.
Rush	102.0 (12)		98.0 (22)
Pass	209.5 (8)		227.5 (23)
Total	311.5 (6)		325.5 (22)
Points	25.0 (19)		23.0 (20)

As you can see, just based on rankings, the defenses have the edge for each team.  I think this may be the dictator for the outcome.  Again, turnovers.  Whichever team wins the turnover battle, that team will likely win the game.  With Rodgers being Turnover Adverse, that plays well into the Packers’ favor.  Also, the lone loss for the Bengals this year, Joe Burrow (#9) had interceptions on 3 consecutive passes.  Should anything like that occur, it’s hard to imagine the Packers not capitalizing on those and scoring 10-14 points, at least.  Also, that could be a 14-point swing.  The issue at hand is an obvious one…the Packers rank 24^th in the NFL with 7 total sacks – and 18^th vs QB passer rating (100.2).  That’s with Jaire Alexander…now remove the best corner in the NFL and all of a sudden, we have an issue.  Couple that with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase (#1) re-connecting from their LSU days, this could be the difference-maker in the game should Chase get free.  The Packers must get a pass rush and limit Cincy’s run game if they’re gonna come out of the Jungle a winner.

I think Rodgers makes 1-2 more plays (or less-killer plays) than the youngster Burrow.

Packers 23
Bengals 20

Season: 2-2
Overall: 71-38

Review~ Green Bay was the better team on Sunday Night.  It prevailed as well.  Not always does the Best Team win – however, in this case there was enough time to prove so.  The Packers had more yards (353 – 298), won the turnover battle (1 – 0), more sacks (4 – 1), and generally won the line of scrimmage.  Aside from QB-play, winning the line of scrimmage is the best determining factor in which team will win.  Winning the LOS battle does make it easier for the QB, so there’s that…

While I hate bitching about the refs, that’s the one area where San Francisco “won,” penalties.  There were ticky-tack upon ticky-tack calls – let’s not discuss Jaire Alexander’s “roughing” call…the Packers overcame the officials.  About as impressive a regular season win since their 9-0 shutout victory over the New York Jets in week 8 of the 2010 season. 

Preview~ speaking of that 2010 season, it culminated against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLV.  Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played the Steelers since that game, having missed both matchups due to breaking his collarbone in the 2013 and 2017 seasons.  Another storyline that Packer fans will over-focus on is the drafting of Kevin King over T.J. Watt.  While that’s an egregious miss (newsflash, every team has multiple of every draft), it’s mainly news because Watt is a local boy that went to UW.  It’s time to move on, and since QB is essentially all that matters, the Packers have the better (that’s what I’m told) and are at home with what I believe is the better roster. 

These teams boast 2 of the 3 worst rushing offenses in the entire league (Green Bay 30^th and Pittsburgh 32^nd).  The Packers are frustrating in that department as when they commit to the run, it really opens the entire offense up and makes Rodgers an MVP-caliber player – i.e., 2020’s season.  Get Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon going early and often, and the Packers can pretty much do whatever they want, when they want.  Just stick with it.  Even if punting early in the game due to drives shorting out, running wears on the opposing D line, which opens everything up in the 2^nd half and especially crunch time in the 4^th quarter. 

In the grander scheme, while non-conference games are least important, winning home games is always a statement that adds to the mentality of a team (and imposes onto other teams coming to Lambeau) – win this game to add to LaFleur’s early, yet impressive, home record (16-3 including postseason) because the schedule toughens up in the coming weeks.  Beginning Oct. 24^th there are six games vs. 2020 postseason teams in the next 9, which one of those “non-playoff” teams from a year ago is 3-0 Arizona, which will be a Thursday night road game…win this, get to 3-1 and focus on finally winning IN Cincinnati!

Steelers 20
Packers 27

Season: 1-2
Overall: 70-38

Review~ that was the bounce-back performance everyone expected to see.  It also took a total of 3 halves of football for the starters to look like they cared.  While not every team played a preseason, the Packers definitely looked like one that could’ve benefitted from playing some.  Green Bay had great balance, running a total of 61 plays with 31 of them rushing the ball and 30 drop backs.  While the defense is still a concern (Detroit out-gained the Packers) the 2^nd half showed the true bend-but-don’t-break D coming up with a shutout of the Lions.

Hardly a feel-good performance for the fans, but this should be a true litmus test for the Packers…San Francisco.  The 49ers are about as complete a football team as there is in the NFL. 

Preview~ San Francisco is one of the most-balanced teams in the NFL.  They have been since the arrival of Kyle Shanahan.  His offense stems from everything running the football.  There are a lot of similarities to be pulled from LaFleur’s offense that came from Shanahan’s.  While the season is still young, we’re beginning to see teams’ true moldings…San Fran has had an awful bout with the injury bug when it comes to the Running Back position, yet still rank 9^th in rush offense (124.0 yards/game).  That’s a testament to their commitment to the run game. 

The other huge impact this game might see is the absence of #74 LT Elgton Jenkins.  That means the Packers’ best 2 OL (Bakhtiari & Jenkins) will be missing when taking on, arguably, the best defensive front in football.  That spells a recipe for disaster.  These are far two different teams than the ones that matched up last season, and #97 DE Nick Bosa on San Fran was missing in action last year and will likely be an issue on Sunday night.  Until there’s more season played, it makes sense to keep these synopses short and sweet until there’s more meat to chew.

Packers 27
49ers 34

Season: 1-1
Overall: 70-37

After all the talk of the Last Dance Tour stopped (about mid-3^rd quarter), it feels as if the entire season came to a crashing (realization) halt.  Are they able to correct a few things and blast Detroit?  Sure, Detroit is terrible, a classic no-win scenario for the Packers, other than an opportunity to improve and work on some things.

While New Orleans is a good team, the Packers would’ve lost to any of the other 31 teams in the NFL with that effort – or lack thereof.  It’s a throwaway tape, not really anything to watch.  Elgton Jenkins looked good at LT, as did AJ Dillon running ball…on all 4 carries.  He did average 4.8 yards/carry, and a lot of those yards came after contact, and during contact.  Green Bay needs to have Dillon and Aaron Jones combine for 35+ touches/game.  An ideal mark would be 40, which would mean committing to the run and not checking out of it. 

The offense resembled the 2018 offense when it was full-on backyard football—the QB just doing whatever the hell he wanted.  Results were similar, shocking to some.

Defense was soft as well, playing 8+ yards off the ball, not sure why—it did resemble a 4^th preseason game.  Sure, other organizations didn’t have those issues, however maybe, just maybe it wouldn’t have hurt to get some starters in live action when the opportunity presented itself.  Fear can cripple.

Preview~             Typically I’d go through the previous seasons’ stats/rankings for an opponent in week 2, however Detroit had such turnover – they’re such a different team altogether that it wouldn’t make sense.  With that said, they’re still terrible…yet showed fight and effort when getting blasted by San Francisco, at home, and had a chance to send it to OT.  Meanwhile, our guys gave up…one never showed up.

Sadly, regardless what happens, until this team gets tested again (possibly in week 3 @ San Francisco) we likely won’t learn a whole lot.

Lions 27

Packers 34

Season: 0-1

Overall: 69-37

Offseason is over, preseason is over, the drama…will be here until it’s not…

With each NFL season being far different than the year prior, for most teams, I still like to look at the entire prior season as a baseline for the next season’s expectations (predictions may be a better word here).  The 2020 New Orleans Saints team was about as complete a team as there was in the NFL.  However, like usual, their QB choked in the postseason and thus they didn’t sniff the Lombardi Trophy, let alone win it.  Same with the Packers.  On to the matchup!

2020	GB Offense	vs.	NO Defense
Rush	132.4 (8)		93.9 (4)
Pass	256.6 (9)		217.0 (5)
Total	389.0 (5)		310.9 (4)
Points	31.3 (1)		21.1 (5)
	GB Defense	vs.	NO Offense
Rush	112.8 (13)		141.6 (6)
Pass	221.2 (7)		234.9 (19)
Total	334.0 (9)		310.9 (4)
Points	23.1 (13)		21.1 (5)

As you can see, the Saints rank higher in 6 of the 8 categories from last season.  Obviously, the HUGE difference is Drew Brees retiring, thus leaving New Orleans with turnover-heavy Jameis Winston at the helm.  Also, they’re missing one of the top WRs in the NFL, #13 Michael Thomas, and homerun-hitter, #10 Tre’Quan Smith.  That should really help Green Bay’s defense which had all kinds of issues tackling #41 Alvin Kamara in last year’s week 3 match-up.  Kamara only carried the ball 6 times for 58 yards (an embarrassing 9.7 yds/carry avg.), but caught 13 balls for 139 yards and 2 TDs.  Everyone remembers the 52-yard TD where he broke close to 1,000 tackles on that play alone.  Kamara is – and should be – the focal point.  Stop him, make Winston beat you for 60 minutes and you should get 2-3 turnovers.  Win the turnover battle, per usual, and win the game.

The key for me, aside from QB-play, will be the OL v DL when each team has the ball.  Green Bay is missing all-world LT David Bakhtiari, and I don’t expect much, if any, drop off in play switching to Elgton Jenkins (also a stud), but Jenkins vacating his normal LG spot could create some issues.  Also, rookie Center, Josh Myers, will get a brutal test (just as his predecessor did in 2014) going up against the 5^th ranked defense (points) out of the shoot.  Another key injury for the Saints – as I’m writing this – their top CB #23 Marshon Lattimore is listed as “Questionable,” and that could really open up passing lanes and the play book as they’ll have to shift coverage to Davante (whom the Packers were without in last years’ matchup).  This could really slant the field and, like last year, have the Packers playing from ahead, which LaFleur does well in that scenario. 

Look for some points as NO’s OL is solid and should give Winston some time, who regardless likes to heave it downfield and that could lead to big plays and turnovers.

Packers 34
Saints 24

Season: 0-0
Overall: 69-36

Maybe my longest hiatus…however, while there was a ton going on within the NFL, particularly our QB, everyone seems to be (finally) flipping on him – in some manner.  As always, I do the schedule grid, meaning I go through all 17 games of each of the 32 teams so each win/loss coincides with their opponents.  This makes it tough to truly guess/predict a specific team’s (or all of them) record, but it’s meant for particular matchup and really seeding into the playoffs. 

The main question for Packer Nation is: Whose fault will it be this year?  We know it’s not #12’s, because he’s immune to blame- even though he’s the biggest choke in the game not-named Matt Ryan.

Here are the results of the grid:

AFC North				NFC North
4Baltimore	11	6		3Green Bay	12	5
Cleveland	10	7		Minnesota	9	8
Pittsburgh	10	7		Chicago	5	12
Cincinnati	4	13		Detroit	3	14
AFC South				NFC South
3Tennessee	11	6		Tampa Bay	14	3
Indianapolis	9	8		New Orleans	9	8
Jacksonville	6	11		Carolina	6	11
Houston	1	16		Atlanta	4	13
AFC East				NFC East
2Buffalo	13	4		Dallas	10	7
5Miami	11	6		Washington	8	9
6New England	11	6		NY Giants	6	11
NY Jets	3	14		Philadelphia	3	14
AFC West				NFC West
1Kansas City	14	3		San Francisco	13	4
7LA Chargers	10	7		Arizona	11	6
Las Vegas	10	7		LA Rams	9	8
Denver	8	9		Seattle	8	9

And the playoffs with the rankings, and match-ups:

Wild Card
LA Chargers	@	Buffalo
New Orleans	@	San Francisco
New England	@	Tennessee
LA Rams	@	Green Bay
Miami	@	Baltimore
Arizona	@	Dallas
Divisional
Arizona	@	Tampa Bay
Green Bay	@	San Francisco
Baltimore	@	Kansas City
Tennessee	@	Buffalo
Champtionship
San Francisco	@	Tampa Bay
Tennessee	@	Kansas City
Super Bowl
Tampa Bay	vs.	Tennessee

Short and sweet.  There’s about a 33% chance of picking the correct Super Bowl winner if you choose Tom Brady.  Might as well.  As for the Packers, they’re a solid team, possibly the best roster in the NFL—tough to overcome when the QB requires the best defense in the NFL and pick-6’s at the right times as well as complete momentum shifts (again, all from the defense) to win a NFC title game, let alone a Super Bowl.

Crown they asses.

Let’s recap the Draft, which for Packer nation seems as if it never happened.  We’ll also dive into the elephant in the room…TCA.  I’ll explain later.

Overall, the draft went as expected:

• QBs early and often
• Packers drafted someone on no one’s radar
• Packers seemed to have a plan and execute it, again

As for the entire NFL, the draft went according to plan.  Trevor Lawrence, the “safest, surest pick” since Peyton Manning (or Andrew Luck…mmm….) went #1 overall to Jacksonville.  After that, a bunch of QBs came off the board, but none really jump out at me.  Possibly Justin Fields, however if anyone can screw up a QB, it’s the Chicago Bears. 

Green Bay stayed put and drafted someone off the radar for pretty much everyone at that point.  The scouting reports on Stokes are fairly consistent: he can run and cover.  Seems good to me.  Apparently, his issue is tackling, but of a cornerback’s responsibilities, the highest that ranks is 3^rd.  Cover and play-making are top 2.  Some scouts claim he can fit both outside and in the slot.  Hindsight being 20/20, Joe Barry (the Packers’ new defensive coordinator) has mentioned in today’s NFL, you need a slot corner (last year was Sullivan #39) to play essentially full-time starter snaps.  With Stokes’ world-class speed (a blazing 4.25 forty-yard dash) and solid size (6’1” 194 lbs.), he has the chance to overtake Kevin King as the #2 corner and really help transform this Packers Defense into a consistent top-5 contender. 

The remaining picks all fit the bill for building a roster to fit LaFleur’s scheme.

• 62^nd: Josh Myers, C – Ohio St. Should be expected to takeover the starting C spot from departed Corey Linsley.
• 85^th: Amari Rodgers, WR – Clemson.  Could fit the slot/returner/Tyler Ervin-type role for the offense, maybe more.
• 142^nd: Royce Newman, OL – Ole Miss. Drafting OL after the 1^st round is a great way to keep a great OL for years to come, however they typically take 2+ years to fully develop (see Josh Sitton and TJ Lang).
• 173^rd: T.J. Slaton, DT – Florida.  Tedarrell Slaton is a big man, with quick/athletic feet.  The last we saw like this was Montravious Adams, however while these types haven’t worked as of late, if you do find a gem, it really gives a monster boost to your entire defense.  Hopefully he’s the one, DL needs depth, badly.
• The only other players I’m aware of, or have heard of are Cole Van Lanen (OL – Wisconsin) and Kylin Hill (HB – Miss. St.): Any time you can draft a highly-rated OL from Wisconsin, do it, especially late.  Could turn out to be a Mark Tauscher-type value, if not, it’s a 6^th-round pick and that’s worth the risk.  Hill is intriguing.  He was very productive in college and was rated as a top-10 running back coming into the draft.  Some scouting reports state his “ideal role” would be #2 in a committee, and that’s exactly what the Packers have built (Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are extremely solid).

All in all, the Packers have drafted to build a good defense, an offense built on running the ball (OL and solid HBs) and have not reached on positions where reaching will kill you (WR, TE, DL, and LB).  General Managers and Head Coaches shouldn’t be graded until at least 3 years (4 for me) into the job, and so far, if I had to grade, they’re easily passing.

Now for the elephant in the room.  The Choke Artist, err, Aaron Rodgers.  For those still reading, you very likely know my position on the Quarterback.  I never have any personal issues with him, mainly my take on him is the perception…most Packer fans believe Aaron Rodgers is the greatest QB ever, because of passer rating and getting creative to find anyone but him as the fault of losing in January. 

With the Adam Schefter, and others, releasing reports of tangible evidence Rodgers wants out of Green Bay, that news hi-jacked the entire NFL Draft.  While trading him would be a dream come true for me, it is possible the Packers don’t have ALL of the leverage, then again, maybe they do.  Let’s cover what’s happened since:

• None of this seemed to influence the Packers’ draft plans.
• It’s a game of optics, and if the Packers win that game, they will win the battle between with the QB.  – Considering Aaron cares soooooo much about what people think of him, if the Packers continue to, publicly, show they’re committed to him, Rodgers will come off looking shallow and bitchy.

Nothing needs to happen; however, an ideal scenario would be for Rodgers to play at a high-level again in ’21 so Love can sit for a 2^nd year, then deal Rodgers.  That would be a win-win-win:

1. Rodgers’ value stays high as possible.
2. Love sits and learns for a 2^nd season (for some reason I like having a QB sit 2 years vs. 1).
3. Rodger’s cap hit essentially becomes “manageable.”  Instead of having $38.5M in dead cap, it’ll be “just” be $17,204,000.

As of May 23^rd, where does that leave the Green Bay Packers?  In fairly good shape, overall.  In year 3 of the Matt LaFleur era, the Packers are one of the youngest rosters, with a total of top-4 talent.  They’ve gone 26-6 in the regular season with a 2-2 postseason record, and that’s while transforming their roster to fit the scheme.  Technically they’re improving annually and if they can flip Rodgers for a Herschel Walker-type trade, this could really set them up for a strong run in the next 5-7 years…could.

Before all the hoopla of today unfolded, my intent was to try to figure out whom the Packers would draft, or at least narrow it down to a few prospects.  However, since most are now aware the Packers are willing (and hopefully able) to move on from Aaron Rodgers, it shouldn’t impact their draft one iota. 

There are a couple of positions that would make sense for the Packers to take should the appropriate player be available.  As I covered last year, rookies aren’t difference-makers for Super Bowl champions.  However, the closest to that have been offensive lineman.  Most recently, Tristan Wirfs, from Iowa and seems to be an awesome player and will be for a long time.  Bryan Bulaga was similar…so maybe OL from Iowa are the key in the 1^st round?  Robert Gallery, epic bust, disproves that, however offensive line might be the best value.

Many of the mocks (experts) have Green Bay taking a Wide Receiver, yet there’s plenty of more value to be had elsewhere.  Possibly at Linebacker or Cornerback.  Here are some of the names to keep an eye on…

• Rondale Moore – WR Purdue (although Green Bay doesn’t draft smaller WRs)
• Rashod Bateman – WR Minnesota
• Kadarius Toney – WR Florida
• Elijah Moore – WR Ole Miss (see comment by Rondale Moore)
• Alijah Vera-Tucker – OL USC
• Alex Leatherwood – OL Alabama
• Wyatt Davis – OL Ohio St.
• Jalen Mayfield – OL Michigan
• Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah – LB Notre Dame
• Zaven Collins – LB Tulsa
• Jamin Davis – LB Kentucky
• Asante Samuel Jr. – CB Florida St.
• Jaycee Horn – CB So. Carolina
• Jaelan Phillips – Edge Rusher Miami (Fla.)

I’m guessing Zaven Collins or Jamin Davis.  Collins can rush the passer and Davis can cover.  Both are areas of need, yet can’t have enough of either.  I’m guessing Collins due to his athleticism coupled with pass rushing abilities.  Getting off the field on 3^rd down is key in the NFL, and pass rush is possibly the most important…rookies can have somewhat of an impact too when teamed up with other good pass rushers.

Recap~  We all should’ve known, especially me.  For as much as I’ve clamored the Packers will never win another Super Bowl as long as Rodgers is QB, I sure did think they’d beat Tampa Bay in the best possible scenario to arrive at a Super Bowl as a team could ask…then again.

I began writing this the day after the Super Bowl, but have waited to ensure my mind was clear before finishing.  The main sticking point with the NFC title game: Points off Turnovers.  That’s really it.  Had anyone told me, prior to the game, the Packers would intercept Brady on 3 consecutive 2^nd half drives, I would have bet the house on the Packers to win and booked tickets (if I were a front-line worker in Tampa) for the Super Bowl. 

• Tampa Bay scored 14 points off both (2) turnovers.
• Green Bay scored 6 points off three (3) turnovers.

That’s not gonna get it done vs. almost anyone, especially Tom Brady.  Very reminiscent of the 2014 NFC title game @ Seattle when the Packers’ defense/special teams got Rodgers 5 turnovers, which too amounted to a total of 6 points…noticing a trend here?  I’m not going to hang the losses in San Francisco (2019) and Atlanta (2016) on Rodgers, but I will on the others.  Your defense shows up and outperforms expectations and the offense sputters, that’s one 1 person.  It’s a trend that’s been happening for far too long, and the fan base – just like Favre – covers for the QB.  See Tom Brady.  The Haters always praised his defense, coaching staff, etc. for his wins, yet here he is…winning again. 

Score 21 points off those 3 turnovers and no one is bitching…hell, Green Bay probably beats Kansas City and hoists their 5^th Lombardi Trophy, but alas…

Season Recap~ an odd season due to the lack of fans, but other than that, it really was fairly normal.  The weirdest thing that happened was the additional playoff team in each conference.  It really hurts the 2^nd seed more than any other team.  I had the Packers getting to the Super Bowl and losing to the Ravens.  Obviously, hindsight is 20/20, turns out contradicting yourself typically doesn’t work.  Lamar Jackson is not a true thrower of the football.  Outstanding athlete and can beat you passing, sometimes, but until he can stand in a pocket and beat you with his arm for an entire game, you’ll see many more performances like his in Buffalo than games like Brady’s in the Super Bowl.  In the end, it’s obvious the safe pick (because it turns out right half the time) is to pick Brady in the Super Bowl vs. Mahomes or another studded QB-led solid team. 

Now What? ~  the main concern is the NFL’s Salary Cap will be dropping, considerable, to about $180M.  This mean, even after cutting ILB Christian Kirksey and RT Rick Wagner, the Packers are still about $11-12M over the cap. 

This means it’ll be even tougher to keep HB Aaron Jones, C Corey Linsley, and TE Robert Tonyan.  What about all the hype surrounding getting JJ Watt for a homecoming?!?!  Not worth it.  Again, the cap is a main issue, and getting him at what expense?  Also, he’d need to be available for essentially all 16 games, and absolutely every playoff game, and 100%…none of this halfway stuff.  Too many holes that even a superstar (which he no longer is) DE would fill. 

Other Free Agents?  WR Alshon Jeffery is now available.  He’d be a great addition, if Green Bay could get him on the cheap.  Doubt it, as some team with more room would be willing to pick him up.  From my perspective, the Packers’ strength was their offensive line.  Keep them in tact as having a solid group of 5 is about as tough to put together as any 1 position in the league.  Make resigning Linsley a priority, let Jones walk (HBs are easily replaceable and shouldn’t spend $ on them as it rarely, if ever, works out).  Maybe resign #30 HB Jamaal Williams and tender #85 TE Robert Tonyan.  Keep drafting best available in the draft in April, and possibly find a new starting RT in one of the rookies or if one of last year’s rookies are able to step in – I do NOT trust #77 T Billy Turner, especially at his price, cut him too.

All in all, the Packers are now in a tough spot due to drafting well and signing free agents.  Couple that with the falling cap due to the reaction to COVID-19, and here we are.  Thankfully the Packers kept EVP/Director – Football Operations, Russ Ball (cap genius), to maneuver around these dark waters. 

Until the Draft (April 29-May 1).

Is it worth looking at how the Packers and Buccaneers got here?  Typically, I’d spend some time reviewing, however, let’s do just a quick review.

Review~ Green Bay was the far superior team (v LA), it showed, and there was never a reason to be nervous.  Even when the Rams cut it to 7, the stats and flow of the game was all on Green Bay’s side.  As for Tampa Bay, they benefitted from a weak arm from Drew Brees, and forced 4 turnovers, converting the first 3 for touchdowns, and the fourth and final one to run out the clock with a 10-point lead.

So here we are.

Preview~

#5 (13-5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ #1 (14-3) Green Bay Packers

It’s not difficult to scare Packer nation as we’re used to our team choking in January.  No team has lost on the last play of the game in the NFL postseason than the Green Bay Packers.  Some may say, “Well, that’s because we’re always in the postseason!  So of course, you’re going to have heartbreak!”  While true, how much easier was it to stomach the beating from the 49ers last year vs. the giveaway to Seattle in the 2014 (Jan. ’15) title game?  The main component, and those that talk with me about the NFL know I put essentially everything on the QB and Rodgers had played awfully in his previous 4 NFC title game bouts.  To paint a more accurate picture, I’ve taken out the garbage time stats he accrued in the blowout losses to Atlanta (2016) and San Francisco (2019).  

Rodgers in NFC Championship Games
Year	Comp	Att	Comp%	Yards	TD	INT	Rat
2010	17	30	56.7%	244	0	2	55.4
2014	19	34	55.9%	178	1	2	55.8
2016*	27	45	60.0%	287	3	1	91.6
2019**	31	39	79.5%	326	2	2	97.2
Totals	94	148	63.5%	1035	6	7	78.0

A 78.0 rating is terrible, even for average QBs.  Now let’s take a look after removing the 2016 and 2019 garbage time stats.  Keep in mind, in 2016 @ Atlanta, it was 24-0 at halftime, Green Bay got the ball after half, went 3-and-out, and got it back down 31-0 before Rodgers started putting some stats up.

As for last year, it was 27-0 at half, so he began after halftime.

True Stats: Rodgers in NFC Championship Games
	Comp	Att	Comp%	Yards	TD	INT	Rat
^adjusted^	57	96	59.38%	697	1	6	59.2

That’s how you go 1-3 in NFC Championship games; a 59.2 rating.  However, while he may not be able to completely erase his ineptitude in the previous 4 games, there’s a serious opportunity to rewrite his legacy, and it can take a fairly big step in the proper direction, come Sunday.  Outduel Tom and you win.  Obviously, I’ll “settle” for winning even if he plays awfully, but the likelihood of playing well results in a W is quite high.  Play well, and you move on to play in Tampa Bay for Super Bowl LV. 

Speaking of Tom Brady, it’s truly remarkable a 43-year-old QB has led his team into a Conference Championship, and even though I didn’t think they’d get here (I picked Tampa Bay to go 9-7, get the 7^th seed and lose in the divisional round, not too shabby) is anyone really surprised?  Obviously, everyone’s eyes will be glued to see the matchup of each QB vs the opposing defense, which is how it should be.  The Bucs seems to have the more-balanced, consistent, team, but the difference is minuscule.  Tampa’s D surrendered 30 or more points 3x this season, whereas Green Bay’s wasn’t far behind with 4 occasions. 

There are a couple of wrinkles that are throwing me for a loop, and I’m chucking it up to each of these teams are far different from their early season forms…for instance, in week 5, Tampa lost to Chicago…the Bears, remember were 5-1 at one point this season, ended 8-8, and really were never a good team – which was easy to see for many fans.  The Bucs’ dismantling of the Packers is well-known; again, I chalk that up to Rodgers seemingly giving up after his 2^nd consecutive drive resulting in essentially a 2^nd pick-6.  I’m willing to bet the farm he doesn’t throw back-to-back INTs on consecutive drives again, in his career, let alone this NFC title game.  Speaking of NFC Championship game performances, how do these guys fare in such games?

Brady in AFC Championship Games
Year	Comp	Att	Comp%	Yds	TD	INT	Rat
2001	12	18	66.7%	115	0	0	84.3
2003	22	37	59.5%	237	1	1	76.1
2004	14	21	66.7%	207	2	0	130.5
2006	21	34	61.8%	232	1	1	79.5
2007	22	33	66.7%	209	2	3	66.4
2011	22	36	61.1%	239	0	2	57.5
2012	29	54	53.7%	320	1	2	62.3
2013	24	38	63.2%	277	1	0	93.9
2014	23	35	65.7%	226	3	1	100.4
2015	27	56	48.2%	310	1	2	56.4
2016	32	42	76.2%	384	3	0	127.5
2017	26	38	68.4%	290	2	0	108.4
2018	30	46	65.2%	348	1	2	77.1
Total	304	488	62.3%	3394	18	14	83.2
Wins	203	306	66.3%	2255	14	9	91.1
Losses	101	182	55.5%	1139	4	5	70.3

 The fact this graph is this long is far past impressive.  However, as you can see, he’s very up-and-down, and has thrown his share of interceptions.  Also, I’d argue this Packers team is far superior to all of the opponents Brady faced in each of his previous FOURTEEN conference title games, except maybe outside of the 2013 Broncos…but even then, that team got destroyed by Seattle in the Super Bowl.  What I pull from this chart is Tom isn’t unbeatable in these games, yet the man has found a way to win 69% of them, more than impressive.

What does this all mean as for today?  Probably nothing.  However, I do think it’s important to understand the value and impact a QB’s play influences the team’s outcome.

Two more points before the Matchup (if you haven’t blown over this already). 

1. The week 6 beating is hard to overlook (and shouldn’t be), whether it was Rodgers not caring, Josh Jackson starting and has essentially been a “healthy scratch”, or it was Kenny Clark’s 1st game back from a groin, which hampered him until last week (and it showed)—this Packers team is different.  In essence, if King plays, instead of Josh Jackson at CB2, or even recently signed Tramon Williams… and instead of 10% Clark, we’ll have 90+% Clark.  Lastly, Ty Summers started at ILB that game and since the group of Barnes, Kirksey, and Martin have been close to “Very Good.”
2. Since 2011, the Packers have only won the rematch in the postseason from a team that defeated them in the regular season, twice.  Once in 2012 when they beat Joe Webb and the Vikings in the Wild Card from having lost in week 17 to Christian Ponder, in what was a meaningless game for Green Bay.  The other came in 2016 after Green Bay got pounded by Dallas, in Lambeau and we all remember Rodgers going down to Arlington and put on a show (that throw to Cook) and upset the #1 seeded Cowboys.  It’s been ugly otherwise.   

Matchup~ the chart has incorporated each teams’ postseason game(s) and where they ultimately would’ve ranked had those been their final regular season statistics:

Champ.	TB D v GB O				TB O v GB D
	Pass	Rush	Total	Points	Pass	Rush	Total	Points
TB	245.8 (21st)	82.2 (1st)	327.9 (6th)	22.1 (T-7th)	287.8 (4th)	99.3 (25th)	387.1 (6th)	30.8 (3rd)
GB	258.9 (9th)	135.7 (8th)	394.6 (4th)	31.8 (1st)	216.9 (5th)	111.8 (12th)	328.7 (7th)	22.8 (12th)

Typically, the points are the rankings of where to keep an eye on, however, here it’s too close to pass up…the TB D vs GB O, in yardage (6^th vs 4^th, respectively) is awfully tight, and even more constricted the TB O vs GB D (6^th vs 7^th, respectively) is as tight as can be.  Since both the Bucs’ and Packers’ special teams’ units suck, the eye will be on each offense’s ability to move the ball down the field and thus bringing us to Red Zone execution.  The Bucs are very good, meanwhile the Packers are exceptional (best in the NFL).  As always, turnovers will be the difference-maker.

Prediction~ think I covered everything?  Prob not.

Buccaneers 21
Packers 30

Season: 14-3
Overall: 69-35