Review~ 4 turnovers.  That’s it.  That was the game.  The Packers offense showed, when in rhythm, they can do what they want.  The defense did a good job on limiting the points off turnovers, 6.  The issue is once the gates were opened, the flood came through.  They still were able to beat the Colts’ OL to the point of attack to have 5 holding calls in the final 8 plays to keep them in the game.

The Packers also lost time of possession 27:49 to 35:01.  The offense had 3 opportunities to ice this game:

1. 1^st drive of the 2^nd half, after the Colts only scored a field goal, the offense could’ve driven down and scored a TD, which would’ve made it 35-17, essentially icing it.
2. Rodgers did a good job (great catch by MVS on that bomb) driving down the field to ensure the tie, but missed a wide open Tonyan on the final play where he tunnel-visioned Adams (usually not a bad play).
3. In OT, they started off with a nicely designed swing route to Aaron Jones for 8 yards until the WR screen hit MVS which looked like it’d gain a 1^st down and fumbled it on a slap. 

The Defense did enough to win, but not with 4 turnovers (if Shepherd was cut, that’s not the worst thing). 

Preview~ Green Bay started off the season with 4 straight wins and up 10-0, and the ball vs. a talented Tampa Bay team, and since then has completely squandered their turnover differential in the 6 games that have followed (including @ TB).  For now, that’s the best indicator of the Packers’ chances of winning…winning (or not losing) the turnover battle. 

We’re at the point of the season where a team’s net points determine its true strength.  Meaning, total points scored minus points given up.  Green Bay currently sits 9^th at +50.  That would seem about right.  The teams “ranked” ahead of the Packers all seem to be as good or better:

• Pit +124
• KC +107
• NO +73
• Bal +73
• Ind +68
• TB +67
• Mia +62
• LAR +51

The Packers have an opportunity to increase their margin of victory by blasting Chicago, which would also do some serious damage to their postseason aspirations.

Chicago is downright terrible.  They’re the 31^st ranked offense in both yards and scoring, so the Packers’ defense has an opportunity to correct the issues they’ve experienced, unless after 10 games they are who they are – which is average.  What’s hilarious about all of this is the 2018 AP NFL Coach of the Year, Matt Nagy, is still the head coach of the Bears and he’s the lone reason their offense is garbage.  My cousin picked this out initially – he loves being the smartest guy in the room, all the time.  Sometimes LaFleur develops those tendencies as well, but is fairly quick to adapt and adjust…i.e. see the Divisional round game vs. Seattle.  In addition to this, Chicago is choosing to go back to Mitch Trubisky, which should alleviate some heartburn for Packer nation as Foles isn’t scared to lose which is why he’s sometimes terrible, but also why he shines in the postseason.  Make Mitch throw and you should be able to hold them under 20 points.

Let’s put it this way, as it currently stands, the Packers are the 3 seed and this being the inaugural season where there’s only 1 team per conference to receive the bye, it’s even more of an advantage to lock up the 1 seed.  Now the Packers will need help in that department, but first things first, beat the Bears.

Bears 17
Packers 34

Season: 7-3
Overall: 62-34

Review~ the Packers committed 2 turnovers, although it acted as 3 when you factor in the punt return for a TD.  However, Green Bay couldn’t have played much worse, they still came away with a victory which is more of a show at how poor Jacksonville really is.  The puzzling thing is Jacksonville’s lone victory came against the Colts in week 1…really doesn’t make sense, does it?  Yes, the Jaguars had Gardner Minshew quarterbacking in week 1, and that may have made the difference, but if that’s the case, then Rodgers and Green Bay should have no issue, right?

Preview~ Indy features one of the best defenses in the NFL.  As mentioned above, this team is tough to figure out.  They lost to Jacksonville in week 1, at home.  Then they plastered the Titans (albeit on short rest) last week.  Frank Reich (head coach) has been quite good so far, and has Rivers playing well enough to be 6-3 and looking like a solid, balanced team. 

The matchup looks about as even as you could find in the NFL – as far as rankings go.  The Packers present an average defense to battle the average offense of the Colts.  Adversely, the Packers’ offense ranks 3^rd in points and faces the 4^th defense of the Colts.  This should be as good a test as any that presents Green Bay this season.  Well, this and next week (Chicago, currently 7^th) will be great tests, and this is in a dome so no better time to burn a good D than now. 

The experts in the desert show this to be a close game, Indianapolis is favored by 1.5 (as of Friday) with an over/under of 49.  I think the Packers play much better in the dome and get the offense back on track with the return of Lazard. 

Packers 27
Colts 24

Season: 7-2
Overall: 62-33

Review~ the Packers pounded the JV-squad San Fran put on the field last Thursday night, as they should have.  Rodgers played his best game, probably since the Dallas game last season.  Statistically he was lights out.  Davante Adams did solidify himself as a top 5 WR (if not the best) in the NFL.  Rodgers still throws off his back foot from time-to-time, which didn’t come anywhere near haunting him, but easily could (and likely will) come January.  There’s not much to really cover, the defense was fine and the offense moved the ball at will.  Much should be the same tomorrow vs. Jacksonville, and Green Bay has a chance to really solidify some things to gain serious momentum moving to the 2^nd half of the season. 

Preview~ enter, possibly, the worst team in the NFL, the Jacksonville Jaguars.    Much like the week 8 match-up vs. Minnesota, Green Bay should have no issue with the Jags.  Then again…

As you can see, the Jaguars are awful in every category, and they’re an awful team.  The Packers have a chance to get their defensive ranking up in the top 10, for yards at least.  The points are most indicative of a true D.  As of right now Green Bay’s defense is average to below average.  If the Jaguars have any shot, it’s winning the turnover battle by at least 2 or 3, or a couple of special team plays that give them free points.  So, since there’s not much to say, look for the Packers to get rookie A.J. Dillon going and continue to conserve Aaron Jones. 

Jaguars 17
Packers 38

Season: 6-2
Overall: 61-33

Review~ that’s a tough game to get out of your mind…well it at least sticks with me in the case in the sense that Do Super Bowl winning (key word there) teams have a showing like that at all during their championship season?  I’ve gone back in years past, but it doesn’t matter…the answer is Of course they have, however the only one that sticks to me is the 2003 New England Patriots.  Their week 1 loss in Buffalo (31-0) was the same caliber of loss.  The Patriots ended up 14-2 and in week 17 they beat that same Buffalo team 31-0…

This is all looking for reason the Packers can still win the Super Bowl and the item I continue to get hung up on is this team (Rodgers too) continuously needs to have an elite defense, which they were in route to having last year, and they do not.  It’s obvious, but the Packers were tasked with stopping Dalvin Cook and making Cousins beat you…instead, Cook had a career game, to the likes of which he’ll never have again.  Is that scheme?  Personnel?  Both?  I’m going with scheme.  Pettine has openly admitted to “not caring” about stopping the run because this is “a passing league, and you must stop the pass.”  I’m old-school, run the ball and stop the run is the shortest path to victory in football.

On top of that, as soon as the Packers’ offense got away from the run game (not sure whom to blame, QB or HC, or both) it lost all rhythm and suffered greatly.  This Packers’ team is built to play off one another and if the offense is rolling then the defense can get in a groove, but it’s the offense’s responsibility (fair or not, it’s how its constructed) to initiate and dictate the mood, the defense plays off that and creates opportunities from there.  Also, in the regular season, offenses can put such pressure on the opposing QB to play perfect and that compounds upon itself (see Minnesota last week, although I’ll contest the Packers’ offense did that to themselves). 

Preview~ the 49ers enter this game completely maimed with injuries.  Not one player that touched the ball in the NFC title game will be active tonight.  The main issue?  Kyle Shanahan.  The guy plays chess vs. our defense and since the 2016 NFC title game (played in Jan ’17) has shredded the Packers’ D.  Even when he joined SF as head coach and traveled to Lambeau on a Monday Night in October of 2018, Shanahan had C.J. Beathard with the following stat line: 16/23; 245 yards; 2 TD; 1 INT; 115.3 rating.   Tonight’s starter, Nick Mullens, is far better than Beathard and could easily present a problem again for Green Bay’s defense if they can get the ground game going.  Mullens follows the playbook and executes, which when done in (any offense, especially) Shanahan’s offense could be lethal.

Checking the matchup chart above, it seems to be even across the ball.  The advantage that I see sides with Green Bay for 2 reasons: health; quarterback. 

Win the turnover battle, hell get greedy and let’s get 2 or 3 from their quandary of backups on offense.   Should the Packers open the game hot, like they have the previous 7, look for Shanahan to continue with the ground game until he absolutely can’t…

I may be picking this game with my heart, but what the hell…

Packers 27
49ers 21

Season: 5-2
Overall: 60-33

The prescription the Dr. ordered was the perfect remedy.  The offense got back on schedule and credit goes to the QB for executing it as such.  As the QB goes, so goes the team.  That’s essentially how it’s always been, for any team, any year…key word essentially. 

In Tampa, Rodgers had 2 bad/unfortunate INTs, then mailed it in, as did the remaining 52 (or 45, whatever).  Rodgers executed well in Houston, as did the rest of the team.  While the defense gave up some yards and points, when a stop was an absolute must, it delivered…mainly the Preston Smith tackle of Deshaun Watson on that awful 4^th & 1 option call. 

Preview~ Green Bay hung 43 points in Minnesota in week 1.  While those were perfect conditions (dome and no crowd), much should be the same this go around.  The main issue could be the wind (forecast shows 37° and wind up to 26 mph).  Let’s take a look at how these teams rank/match-up:

When the Vikings have the ball, it appears to be an “even matchup.”  Meaning, Minnesota gains about the same amount of yards (and ranks similarly) as the Packers allow.  The major advantage is when the Packers have the ball.  Green Bay catapulted back up the rankings in points scored (previously 1^st prior to the horror show in Tampa Bay, but now 2^nd with 32.8 points/game).  Keep an eye on the secondary for the Packers.  Raven Greene (S #24) had a quiet nice game and showed his sound tackling.  He helped keep the Texans “in front” of the defense and made them work for every yard.  Darnell Savage is Questionable too, so those are 2 – possibly big – injuries to take note. 

With the return of Kenny Clark, the defense saw a much-needed boost in the middle coupled with the initial play of Kamal Martin (rookie ILB #54) was refreshing to see a ILB both be able to cover AND stick it in the run game.  My cousin had a good comparison, Desmond Bishop.  Which this defense has been missing since his leg injury in 2011.  While I don’t think Martin is on the same level of athletic/thumping ability, he’s far ahead of anyone we’ve had there since.  He also has Kenny Clark who is far better than BJ Raji, and Raji was very good.  The other thing people should notice (if they haven’t already) is Jaire Alexander is a true lockdown corner.  He rarely gets targeted and typically follows, not only, the #1 WR – but he seems to be matched up on the player that’s likely had the play designed to get the ball to…impressive isn’t a strong enough word for his play and improvement since his rookie year.

How can Minnesota come out of Lambeau with a victory?  Winning the turnover battle by at least 2 and have Green Bay come down with key injuries.

Look for more of the same…let’s bury this annoying team/fan base and laugh at their obsession with begging for Captain Average.

Vikings 24
Packers 41

Season: 5-1
Overall: 60-32

It was a great start.  A 10-play 54-yard drive for a FG on the opening drive, followed up by a 3&out by the defense, then an 11-play 80-yard drive for a TD…a 10-0 lead.  The defense then held the Bucs’ again and got the ball back for the rolling offense at their own 22. 

What happened next was chaos, in the worst way.  Consecutive interceptions for touchdowns (well, the 2^nd INT wasn’t a TD, but it essentially was).  The offense was never able to recover, and neither was the defense.  This was a prime example as why turnovers typically decide the outcome of games, especially the closer matched both teams are. 

The good news is the Packers are a far better team than the one that took a 38-10 drubbing, and hopefully they’re able to learn as much as possible from it…the bad news, they seemed to quit during the middle of a game that wasn’t out of grasp.  Not sure what to chalk it up to, but sometimes teams lay clunkers, just odd that they got out of the gates hot and had complete control.  On to the next.

What looked like a great match-up heading into the season has turned into a lop-sided one, at least it should be.  Houston, while having a difficult schedule, good/great teams don’t start the season 1-5.  The Texans feature one of the young star-QBs, in Deshaun Watson. 

Green Bay has a heavy advantage on offense vs. the Texans’ defense.  Ranking 3^rd in points against Houston’s 26^th ranking is where the Packers could potentially (and almost expectedly) could hang 40+ again.  While Green Bay’s defense seems to have taken a step back from last year, their strong suit is to play from ahead and get after the QB.  Without over-thinking it, that’s how I see this game progressing.  The 1^st interception last week came after the Packers had 2 incomplete passes on 1^st and 2^nd downs, and that’s not LaFleur’s offense…with the absence of Aaron Jones, look for Jamaal Williams and rookie A.J. Dillon to get involved early and often, and (hopefully) setting up a lot more play action from under center sets.  It may be the help needed to get Rodgers back on track, since Williams is the preferred back for pass protection – which may be even more crucial depending on Bakhtiari’s status.

No reason to think this won’t be a high-scoring affair, but should be one the better team should come out on top.

Packers 38
Texans 30

Season: 4-1
Overall: 59-32

Coming off the bye week a year ago the Packer laid their biggest dud of the regular season, a 37-8 ass-whooping from the San Francisco 49ers.  There’s a chance the same could happen, but Rodgers seems too in control and has too good of a rhythm going to be stale-mated for an entire game.  The other “bye” week the Packers had was the Wild Card round in last years’ playoffs and they came out hot vs. Seattle.  They held on late with the defense getting a stop after they showed to be leaking quite a bit of fuel in the 4^th quarter and the offense held on to run out the remainder of the clock.  I believe that’ll be more of the Packers team we’ll be treated to come 3:25pm CST Sunday. 

Enter the Tommy Brady Buccaneers.  He’s a shell of his former self, evidenced by only putting up 13 points, at home, in the playoffs…following a week 17 loss to Miami when had he won would’ve secured the 2 seed and a bye.  That’s not the Brady we saw for the previous 18 seasons in New England.  The point to take here is, while TB12 isn’t near his GOAT form, he’s a vast improvement from Jameis Winston.  Couple that with Bruce Ariens and there’s some serious danger there, and if not careful, could hang 40 on a defense.  I don’t fully expect this to be a shootout, if it is…I like the younger QB’s chances, plus he’s playing his best football of his career (winning with ease). 

As you can see, Green Bay possesses the best offense in the league, and while they may not have had a true test, they’ve done what they’re supposed to against their opponents.  Tampa Bay holds the 8^th best defense (in points), so this could be a solid matchup to watch.  Much has been made about the Bucs’ premier pass-rusher, Shaquil Barrett (#58), whom had a career year last year with 19.5 sacks.  While he’s something to keep an eye on, he shouldn’t pose much of a threat vs. Green Bay’s outstanding offensive line.  It helps to have Rodgers’ fleet-of-foot in the pocket along with his awareness, the OL has been nothing short of amazing in pass protection.  They’ve also done a bang-up job creating running lanes for Aaron Jones and even Jamaal Williams to work with.  The Chargers, led by (somewhat surprising to me) upstart rookie QB Justin Herbert, lit up the Bucs’ D for 31 the other week.  The target for LaFleur and Rodgers should be around or above that number.  The forecast calls for thunderstorms, so holding onto the ball could be the difference, but the Packers (knock on wood) have been solid with their turnover differential as well.

Packers 34
Buccaneers 24

Season: 4-0
Overall: 59-31

22 years ago, also on a Monday night, the Packers hosted an undefeated Vikings squad that came in with an uber-talented wide receiver (rookie Randy Moss).  Sound familiar?  It shouldn’t, because the Packers got blasted that game and Moss put his name on the map as Arrived.  The Packers have done that quite a bit, making opponents look awesome in the spotlight.  Happens when you play on national TV fairly often.  While the Packers’ defense is libel to have an unknown kill them, this should be an opportunity for an unknown on Green Bay to make a name on national television. 

I’d normally recap the previous week, but since it went according to plan, almost identically, what’s the point?  The potential Previously Unknown candidates could range from any of the Tight Ends (Jace #87, Bobby #85, Deguara #81) to possibly Thighs (rookie HB AJ Dillon #28).  All could easily have a break out game vs. Atlanta’s garbage defense.  Then again it could be the, now, household names of Aaron Jones or….no wait, that’s about it.  Credit goes to the QB for running the offense about as efficiently can be expected, however the offensive line has been absolutely amazing, especially given the injuries and musical chairs they’ve been playing.  They’ve created running lanes, provided plenty of time with little-to-no-push into the pocket, and have been somewhat healthy in doing so.

As previously mentioned, the Falcons’ defense is straight trash.  Having blown the last 2 games with heavy 4^th quarter leads.  Atlanta is giving up an avg. of 15.3 points in the 4^th quarter.  That is, no doubt, in the back of their mind.  Especially when coming to face the #1 offense in the NFL, they’re going to press and try to play perfect football, which will likely come with trying to get as many turnovers as possible.  Look for the Packers to take advantage of their aggression with a bunch of misdirection and play action…aka, their normal offense.  While the Falcons do have some talented skill players (Julio Jones #11, Calvin Ridley #18, and Todd Gurley #21), their QB is the biggest choke artist in NFL history, and is further proving that this year losing to the Bears and Cowboys the last 2 games with double-digit 4^th quarter leads. 

Expect Julio (should he play) to get his, keeping in mind they’re likely to be chasing all game and having to throw, but anticipate little resistance from their D…it’s crazy to think, but maybe expect Rodgers to captain another 40-point output.  Hopefully he just doesn’t have to in order to win.

Falcons 24
Packers 38

Season: 3-0
Overall: 58-31

Well most predictions on this game turned to be true.  The Packers were the better team, by far, and it showed after the extremely slow-start.  Generating your own energy is going to be an asset this NFL season, and there’s no better time to have to play a Prime-Time game at the Superdome in New Orleans than when no fans are allowed.  Even the biggest Packer Backer would have a hard time picking any Green Bay team to come out of there with a W, but maybe not so much.

Review~ again Green Bay got down early to Detroit, by allowing the Lions to march right down the field on their first 2 possessions and build a 14-3 lead in Lambeau.  That was quickly put to an end when Aaron Rodgers (and Chandon Sullivan) led the Packers to 31 unanswered points, which is a true testament to the QB sticking with the playbook and now trying to takeover.  He played another great game, albeit vs. a sub-par opponent, but he did his job.  Aaron Jones further validated his eliteness by taking over with a 75-yard scamper up the middle of the defense.  It’s those homerun-type plays that will allow the Packer offense to keep their opponent off-balance due to the threat of the big play on the ground. 

The defense sorely missed Kenny Clark, as the first 2 drives proved little resistance.  The Packers could have a chance at a Super Bowl if they take the 2019 Kansas City Chiefs’ route by their offense taking over games and seizing all momentum, but it’d be much easier if Green Bay could even show a threat of stopping the fun.  This week will be a great test.

Preview~ New Orleans may have the deepest, and best roster in the NFL.  While you know me, it comes down to the QB, Brees looks every bit of a 41-year old and never had a strong arm to begin with.  Relying on his perfectly timed and accurate passing abilities over arm strength, that and a balanced attack is how they can put up points.  If this gets to a shootout (see SF @ NO last year) I believe it solely falls into the hands of the QB and no QB is playing better than Aaron Rodgers. 

The unforeseen bright spot of this Packers team has been the offensive line.  We knew Bakhtiari and Jenkins were studs (Jenkins may be the most-underrated OL in the NFL), Linsley was solid, but the RG and RT spots were scary ?’s.  After 2 games, and a balanced offense, the OL has not only “held up,” but I’d argue has been one of, if not, the best lines in the entire league.  Look for heavy doses of Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon – on top of the much-anticipated Aaron Jones show – to wear down that Saints’ pass rush and get Rodgers into easy conversions to keep the ball.

There will be a lot of talk about Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara, as there should, but if Rodgers plays remotely effective as to the 1^st two weeks, the Packers will win.

Packers 34
Saints 28

Season: 2-0
Overall: 57-31

Review—it’s refreshing to see a QB run the offense.  Rodgers played in rhythm and sync the entire game, and it showed by settling for only 1 punt in 10 possessions.  While the numbers show the Packers passed > rushed, the run was the key for the offense.  It kept the defense off-balance and allowed LaFleur the entire playbook for the entire game.  Where Rodgers truly shined was his timing on his “shots.”  Instead of the adlib and chuck offense, which was done on 1 or 2 plays, the shots taken were at the right time in both game situation and pace of game.  The challenge comes when facing an opponent that doesn’t have an awful secondary with zero pass rush (missing Hunter was huge for them), however kudos is due because he did what he was supposed to do and put op 43 points (easily could’ve been 50 had Adams hung on to the 4^th down throw).

The defense on the other hand…well, they dictated the game and gave the offense the opportunity to build a lead, it was good team football until the 4^th quarter.  The offense kept punishing the Vikings’ D and the defense couldn’t close it out.  It was wary to see both Savage and Alexander peeking at the QB allowing Thielen (both times) to get behind them for relatively easy touchdowns.  The other part is giving up three 2-pt conversions.  While it mattered not in the result of the game, there’s plenty to work on…and the Packers’ run defense seems to have picked up where it left off in San Francisco in January.

Preview—since Kenny Clark is OUT for the week 2 matchup vs. Detroit, everyone should pick up Adrian Peterson (#28), Kerryon Johnson (#33), and/or D’Andre Swift (#32)—even if Swift is the goat (not the good kind) from last week’s drop vs. Chicago.  The Packers’ rush D gave up 6.1 yards/carry vs. Minnesota and it didn’t look like it was close to stopping anyone.  Be on the lookout if Detroit sticks with the run that this game may actually be tight.

Then again, if Mitch Trubisky can put up 21 unanswered vs Detroit, then what should Rodgers be able to do?  Detroit seems absolutely cursed, just as a franchise.  The prime example(s) should be from both games vs. Green Bay last season.  The Packers never led in either game, yet went 2-0 vs. Detroit.  They have no clue how to win in the regular season, which is just hilarious, however all the more embarrassing if you lose to them.

I don’t see the Packers dropping this one in their home opener, even if fanless.  It’ll likely be tight throughout, for no reason, but I in no way see how Green Bay drops this game.

Lions 27
Packers 38

Season: 1-0
Overall: 56-31