Packers will “Master” the Jags…(see what I did?)

Review~ the Packers pounded the JV-squad San Fran put on the field last Thursday night, as they should have.  Rodgers played his best game, probably since the Dallas game last season.  Statistically he was lights out.  Davante Adams did solidify himself as a top 5 WR (if not the best) in the NFL.  Rodgers still throws off his back foot from time-to-time, which didn’t come anywhere near haunting him, but easily could (and likely will) come January.  There’s not much to really cover, the defense was fine and the offense moved the ball at will.  Much should be the same tomorrow vs. Jacksonville, and Green Bay has a chance to really solidify some things to gain serious momentum moving to the 2nd half of the season. 

Preview~ enter, possibly, the worst team in the NFL, the Jacksonville Jaguars.    Much like the week 8 match-up vs. Minnesota, Green Bay should have no issue with the Jags.  Then again…

 OffenseDefense
 Rush YdsPass YdsTotal YdsPointsRush YdsPass YdsTotal YdsPoints
Jax98.9 (27)251.6 (18)350.5 (21)22.4 (26)138.1 (27)280.0 (28)418.1 (31)30.9 (31)
GB126.6 (10)269.3 (8)395.9 (7)31.6 (3)111.0 (12)234.4 (13)345.4 (11)25.5 (17)

As you can see, the Jaguars are awful in every category, and they’re an awful team.  The Packers have a chance to get their defensive ranking up in the top 10, for yards at least.  The points are most indicative of a true D.  As of right now Green Bay’s defense is average to below average.  If the Jaguars have any shot, it’s winning the turnover battle by at least 2 or 3, or a couple of special team plays that give them free points.  So, since there’s not much to say, look for the Packers to get rookie A.J. Dillon going and continue to conserve Aaron Jones. 

Jaguars 17
Packers 38

Season: 6-2
Overall: 61-33

What Could’ve Been…(7-1??)

Review~ that’s a tough game to get out of your mind…well it at least sticks with me in the case in the sense that Do Super Bowl winning (key word there) teams have a showing like that at all during their championship season?  I’ve gone back in years past, but it doesn’t matter…the answer is Of course they have, however the only one that sticks to me is the 2003 New England Patriots.  Their week 1 loss in Buffalo (31-0) was the same caliber of loss.  The Patriots ended up 14-2 and in week 17 they beat that same Buffalo team 31-0…

This is all looking for reason the Packers can still win the Super Bowl and the item I continue to get hung up on is this team (Rodgers too) continuously needs to have an elite defense, which they were in route to having last year, and they do not.  It’s obvious, but the Packers were tasked with stopping Dalvin Cook and making Cousins beat you…instead, Cook had a career game, to the likes of which he’ll never have again.  Is that scheme?  Personnel?  Both?  I’m going with scheme.  Pettine has openly admitted to “not caring” about stopping the run because this is “a passing league, and you must stop the pass.”  I’m old-school, run the ball and stop the run is the shortest path to victory in football.

On top of that, as soon as the Packers’ offense got away from the run game (not sure whom to blame, QB or HC, or both) it lost all rhythm and suffered greatly.  This Packers’ team is built to play off one another and if the offense is rolling then the defense can get in a groove, but it’s the offense’s responsibility (fair or not, it’s how its constructed) to initiate and dictate the mood, the defense plays off that and creates opportunities from there.  Also, in the regular season, offenses can put such pressure on the opposing QB to play perfect and that compounds upon itself (see Minnesota last week, although I’ll contest the Packers’ offense did that to themselves). 

Preview~ the 49ers enter this game completely maimed with injuries.  Not one player that touched the ball in the NFC title game will be active tonight.  The main issue?  Kyle Shanahan.  The guy plays chess vs. our defense and since the 2016 NFC title game (played in Jan ’17) has shredded the Packers’ D.  Even when he joined SF as head coach and traveled to Lambeau on a Monday Night in October of 2018, Shanahan had C.J. Beathard with the following stat line: 16/23; 245 yards; 2 TD; 1 INT; 115.3 rating.   Tonight’s starter, Nick Mullens, is far better than Beathard and could easily present a problem again for Green Bay’s defense if they can get the ground game going.  Mullens follows the playbook and executes, which when done in (any offense, especially) Shanahan’s offense could be lethal.


 OffenseDefense
 RushPassTotalPointsRushPassTotalPoints
GB128.9 (9)265.7 (9)394.6 (9)31.3 (4)119.0 (15)227.6 (13)346.6 (11)26.7 (20)
SF127.0 (11)251.6 (17)378.6 (12)26.0 (15)105.6 (10)209.0 (4)314.6 (6)21.6 (10)


Checking the matchup chart above, it seems to be even across the ball.  The advantage that I see sides with Green Bay for 2 reasons: health; quarterback. 

Win the turnover battle, hell get greedy and let’s get 2 or 3 from their quandary of backups on offense.   Should the Packers open the game hot, like they have the previous 7, look for Shanahan to continue with the ground game until he absolutely can’t…

I may be picking this game with my heart, but what the hell…

Packers 27
49ers 21

Season: 5-2
Overall: 60-33

Gearing Up for a Battle? (@ SF this Thursday…)

The prescription the Dr. ordered was the perfect remedy.  The offense got back on schedule and credit goes to the QB for executing it as such.  As the QB goes, so goes the team.  That’s essentially how it’s always been, for any team, any year…key word essentially. 

In Tampa, Rodgers had 2 bad/unfortunate INTs, then mailed it in, as did the remaining 52 (or 45, whatever).  Rodgers executed well in Houston, as did the rest of the team.  While the defense gave up some yards and points, when a stop was an absolute must, it delivered…mainly the Preston Smith tackle of Deshaun Watson on that awful 4th & 1 option call. 

Preview~ Green Bay hung 43 points in Minnesota in week 1.  While those were perfect conditions (dome and no crowd), much should be the same this go around.  The main issue could be the wind (forecast shows 37° and wind up to 26 mph).  Let’s take a look at how these teams rank/match-up:

 Offense Defense
 RushPassTotalPoints RushPassTotalPoints
Min139.2 (6)235.0 (22)374.2 (14)25.8 (17) 129.0 (22)286.7 (29)413.7 (28)32.0 (30)
GB132.2 (10)261.5 (14)393.7 (8)32.8 (2) 117.0 (12)240.3 (18)350.3 (11)26.5 (19)


When the Vikings have the ball, it appears to be an “even matchup.”  Meaning, Minnesota gains about the same amount of yards (and ranks similarly) as the Packers allow.  The major advantage is when the Packers have the ball.  Green Bay catapulted back up the rankings in points scored (previously 1st prior to the horror show in Tampa Bay, but now 2nd with 32.8 points/game).  Keep an eye on the secondary for the Packers.  Raven Greene (S #24) had a quiet nice game and showed his sound tackling.  He helped keep the Texans “in front” of the defense and made them work for every yard.  Darnell Savage is Questionable too, so those are 2 – possibly big – injuries to take note. 

With the return of Kenny Clark, the defense saw a much-needed boost in the middle coupled with the initial play of Kamal Martin (rookie ILB #54) was refreshing to see a ILB both be able to cover AND stick it in the run game.  My cousin had a good comparison, Desmond Bishop.  Which this defense has been missing since his leg injury in 2011.  While I don’t think Martin is on the same level of athletic/thumping ability, he’s far ahead of anyone we’ve had there since.  He also has Kenny Clark who is far better than BJ Raji, and Raji was very good.  The other thing people should notice (if they haven’t already) is Jaire Alexander is a true lockdown corner.  He rarely gets targeted and typically follows, not only, the #1 WR – but he seems to be matched up on the player that’s likely had the play designed to get the ball to…impressive isn’t a strong enough word for his play and improvement since his rookie year.

How can Minnesota come out of Lambeau with a victory?  Winning the turnover battle by at least 2 and have Green Bay come down with key injuries.

Look for more of the same…let’s bury this annoying team/fan base and laugh at their obsession with begging for Captain Average.

Vikings 24
Packers 41

Season: 5-1
Overall: 60-32

An Awful Defense…Just What the Dr. Ordered?

It was a great start.  A 10-play 54-yard drive for a FG on the opening drive, followed up by a 3&out by the defense, then an 11-play 80-yard drive for a TD…a 10-0 lead.  The defense then held the Bucs’ again and got the ball back for the rolling offense at their own 22. 

What happened next was chaos, in the worst way.  Consecutive interceptions for touchdowns (well, the 2nd INT wasn’t a TD, but it essentially was).  The offense was never able to recover, and neither was the defense.  This was a prime example as why turnovers typically decide the outcome of games, especially the closer matched both teams are. 

The good news is the Packers are a far better team than the one that took a 38-10 drubbing, and hopefully they’re able to learn as much as possible from it…the bad news, they seemed to quit during the middle of a game that wasn’t out of grasp.  Not sure what to chalk it up to, but sometimes teams lay clunkers, just odd that they got out of the gates hot and had complete control.  On to the next.

What looked like a great match-up heading into the season has turned into a lop-sided one, at least it should be.  Houston, while having a difficult schedule, good/great teams don’t start the season 1-5.  The Texans feature one of the young star-QBs, in Deshaun Watson. 

OffenseDefense
yardspointsyardspoints
GB396.6 (7th)32.4 (3rd)347.4 (13th)27.8 (20th)
Hou368.0 (17th)24.3 (21st)424.0 (30th)30.3 (26th)

Green Bay has a heavy advantage on offense vs. the Texans’ defense.  Ranking 3rd in points against Houston’s 26th ranking is where the Packers could potentially (and almost expectedly) could hang 40+ again.  While Green Bay’s defense seems to have taken a step back from last year, their strong suit is to play from ahead and get after the QB.  Without over-thinking it, that’s how I see this game progressing.  The 1st interception last week came after the Packers had 2 incomplete passes on 1st and 2nd downs, and that’s not LaFleur’s offense…with the absence of Aaron Jones, look for Jamaal Williams and rookie A.J. Dillon to get involved early and often, and (hopefully) setting up a lot more play action from under center sets.  It may be the help needed to get Rodgers back on track, since Williams is the preferred back for pass protection – which may be even more crucial depending on Bakhtiari’s status.

No reason to think this won’t be a high-scoring affair, but should be one the better team should come out on top.

Packers 38
Texans 30

Season: 4-1
Overall: 59-32

12 > 12?

Coming off the bye week a year ago the Packer laid their biggest dud of the regular season, a 37-8 ass-whooping from the San Francisco 49ers.  There’s a chance the same could happen, but Rodgers seems too in control and has too good of a rhythm going to be stale-mated for an entire game.  The other “bye” week the Packers had was the Wild Card round in last years’ playoffs and they came out hot vs. Seattle.  They held on late with the defense getting a stop after they showed to be leaking quite a bit of fuel in the 4th quarter and the offense held on to run out the remainder of the clock.  I believe that’ll be more of the Packers team we’ll be treated to come 3:25pm CST Sunday. 

Enter the Tommy Brady Buccaneers.  He’s a shell of his former self, evidenced by only putting up 13 points, at home, in the playoffs…following a week 17 loss to Miami when had he won would’ve secured the 2 seed and a bye.  That’s not the Brady we saw for the previous 18 seasons in New England.  The point to take here is, while TB12 isn’t near his GOAT form, he’s a vast improvement from Jameis Winston.  Couple that with Bruce Ariens and there’s some serious danger there, and if not careful, could hang 40 on a defense.  I don’t fully expect this to be a shootout, if it is…I like the younger QB’s chances, plus he’s playing his best football of his career (winning with ease). 

OffenseDefense
YardsPointsYardsPoints
GB445.5 (2)38.0 (1)353.3 (12)25.3 (17)
TB365.0 (19)27.8 (12)298.2 (2)22.4 (8)

As you can see, Green Bay possesses the best offense in the league, and while they may not have had a true test, they’ve done what they’re supposed to against their opponents.  Tampa Bay holds the 8th best defense (in points), so this could be a solid matchup to watch.  Much has been made about the Bucs’ premier pass-rusher, Shaquil Barrett (#58), whom had a career year last year with 19.5 sacks.  While he’s something to keep an eye on, he shouldn’t pose much of a threat vs. Green Bay’s outstanding offensive line.  It helps to have Rodgers’ fleet-of-foot in the pocket along with his awareness, the OL has been nothing short of amazing in pass protection.  They’ve also done a bang-up job creating running lanes for Aaron Jones and even Jamaal Williams to work with.  The Chargers, led by (somewhat surprising to me) upstart rookie QB Justin Herbert, lit up the Bucs’ D for 31 the other week.  The target for LaFleur and Rodgers should be around or above that number.  The forecast calls for thunderstorms, so holding onto the ball could be the difference, but the Packers (knock on wood) have been solid with their turnover differential as well.

Packers 34
Buccaneers 24

Season: 4-0
Overall: 59-31

Coming Out Party?

22 years ago, also on a Monday night, the Packers hosted an undefeated Vikings squad that came in with an uber-talented wide receiver (rookie Randy Moss).  Sound familiar?  It shouldn’t, because the Packers got blasted that game and Moss put his name on the map as Arrived.  The Packers have done that quite a bit, making opponents look awesome in the spotlight.  Happens when you play on national TV fairly often.  While the Packers’ defense is libel to have an unknown kill them, this should be an opportunity for an unknown on Green Bay to make a name on national television. 

I’d normally recap the previous week, but since it went according to plan, almost identically, what’s the point?  The potential Previously Unknown candidates could range from any of the Tight Ends (Jace #87, Bobby #85, Deguara #81) to possibly Thighs (rookie HB AJ Dillon #28).  All could easily have a break out game vs. Atlanta’s garbage defense.  Then again it could be the, now, household names of Aaron Jones or….no wait, that’s about it.  Credit goes to the QB for running the offense about as efficiently can be expected, however the offensive line has been absolutely amazing, especially given the injuries and musical chairs they’ve been playing.  They’ve created running lanes, provided plenty of time with little-to-no-push into the pocket, and have been somewhat healthy in doing so.

As previously mentioned, the Falcons’ defense is straight trash.  Having blown the last 2 games with heavy 4th quarter leads.  Atlanta is giving up an avg. of 15.3 points in the 4th quarter.  That is, no doubt, in the back of their mind.  Especially when coming to face the #1 offense in the NFL, they’re going to press and try to play perfect football, which will likely come with trying to get as many turnovers as possible.  Look for the Packers to take advantage of their aggression with a bunch of misdirection and play action…aka, their normal offense.  While the Falcons do have some talented skill players (Julio Jones #11, Calvin Ridley #18, and Todd Gurley #21), their QB is the biggest choke artist in NFL history, and is further proving that this year losing to the Bears and Cowboys the last 2 games with double-digit 4th quarter leads. 

Expect Julio (should he play) to get his, keeping in mind they’re likely to be chasing all game and having to throw, but anticipate little resistance from their D…it’s crazy to think, but maybe expect Rodgers to captain another 40-point output.  Hopefully he just doesn’t have to in order to win.

Falcons 24
Packers 38

Season: 3-0
Overall: 58-31

COVID Is Helping?

Well most predictions on this game turned to be true.  The Packers were the better team, by far, and it showed after the extremely slow-start.  Generating your own energy is going to be an asset this NFL season, and there’s no better time to have to play a Prime-Time game at the Superdome in New Orleans than when no fans are allowed.  Even the biggest Packer Backer would have a hard time picking any Green Bay team to come out of there with a W, but maybe not so much.

Review~ again Green Bay got down early to Detroit, by allowing the Lions to march right down the field on their first 2 possessions and build a 14-3 lead in Lambeau.  That was quickly put to an end when Aaron Rodgers (and Chandon Sullivan) led the Packers to 31 unanswered points, which is a true testament to the QB sticking with the playbook and now trying to takeover.  He played another great game, albeit vs. a sub-par opponent, but he did his job.  Aaron Jones further validated his eliteness by taking over with a 75-yard scamper up the middle of the defense.  It’s those homerun-type plays that will allow the Packer offense to keep their opponent off-balance due to the threat of the big play on the ground. 

The defense sorely missed Kenny Clark, as the first 2 drives proved little resistance.  The Packers could have a chance at a Super Bowl if they take the 2019 Kansas City Chiefs’ route by their offense taking over games and seizing all momentum, but it’d be much easier if Green Bay could even show a threat of stopping the fun.  This week will be a great test.

Preview~ New Orleans may have the deepest, and best roster in the NFL.  While you know me, it comes down to the QB, Brees looks every bit of a 41-year old and never had a strong arm to begin with.  Relying on his perfectly timed and accurate passing abilities over arm strength, that and a balanced attack is how they can put up points.  If this gets to a shootout (see SF @ NO last year) I believe it solely falls into the hands of the QB and no QB is playing better than Aaron Rodgers. 

The unforeseen bright spot of this Packers team has been the offensive line.  We knew Bakhtiari and Jenkins were studs (Jenkins may be the most-underrated OL in the NFL), Linsley was solid, but the RG and RT spots were scary ?’s.  After 2 games, and a balanced offense, the OL has not only “held up,” but I’d argue has been one of, if not, the best lines in the entire league.  Look for heavy doses of Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon – on top of the much-anticipated Aaron Jones show – to wear down that Saints’ pass rush and get Rodgers into easy conversions to keep the ball.

There will be a lot of talk about Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara, as there should, but if Rodgers plays remotely effective as to the 1st two weeks, the Packers will win.

Packers 34
Saints 28

Season: 2-0
Overall: 57-31

Hit Your Stride…

Review—it’s refreshing to see a QB run the offense.  Rodgers played in rhythm and sync the entire game, and it showed by settling for only 1 punt in 10 possessions.  While the numbers show the Packers passed > rushed, the run was the key for the offense.  It kept the defense off-balance and allowed LaFleur the entire playbook for the entire game.  Where Rodgers truly shined was his timing on his “shots.”  Instead of the adlib and chuck offense, which was done on 1 or 2 plays, the shots taken were at the right time in both game situation and pace of game.  The challenge comes when facing an opponent that doesn’t have an awful secondary with zero pass rush (missing Hunter was huge for them), however kudos is due because he did what he was supposed to do and put op 43 points (easily could’ve been 50 had Adams hung on to the 4th down throw).

The defense on the other hand…well, they dictated the game and gave the offense the opportunity to build a lead, it was good team football until the 4th quarter.  The offense kept punishing the Vikings’ D and the defense couldn’t close it out.  It was wary to see both Savage and Alexander peeking at the QB allowing Thielen (both times) to get behind them for relatively easy touchdowns.  The other part is giving up three 2-pt conversions.  While it mattered not in the result of the game, there’s plenty to work on…and the Packers’ run defense seems to have picked up where it left off in San Francisco in January.

Preview—since Kenny Clark is OUT for the week 2 matchup vs. Detroit, everyone should pick up Adrian Peterson (#28), Kerryon Johnson (#33), and/or D’Andre Swift (#32)—even if Swift is the goat (not the good kind) from last week’s drop vs. Chicago.  The Packers’ rush D gave up 6.1 yards/carry vs. Minnesota and it didn’t look like it was close to stopping anyone.  Be on the lookout if Detroit sticks with the run that this game may actually be tight.

Then again, if Mitch Trubisky can put up 21 unanswered vs Detroit, then what should Rodgers be able to do?  Detroit seems absolutely cursed, just as a franchise.  The prime example(s) should be from both games vs. Green Bay last season.  The Packers never led in either game, yet went 2-0 vs. Detroit.  They have no clue how to win in the regular season, which is just hilarious, however all the more embarrassing if you lose to them.

I don’t see the Packers dropping this one in their home opener, even if fanless.  It’ll likely be tight throughout, for no reason, but I in no way see how Green Bay drops this game.

Lions 27
Packers 38

Season: 1-0
Overall: 56-31

Trust Fear Won’t Win and the NFL Finishes the Season?

The season is finally upon us!  I’m not sure if you feel similar, but this is the least excited I can remember being about football in my entire life.  The best feeling I’ve had was hearing the FOX music on a promo, but something about the stadiums being empty, or nowhere near capacity just complexes me.  Anyway, onto week 1!

The Vikings have changed a bit since their random (and quite unforeseen) playoff victory last year.  They’ve moved on from Stefon Diggs (traded to Buf) and drafted Justin Jefferson (LSU), as well as saw Everson Griffen’s services vacate US Bank Stadium, but traded for Yannick Ngakoue (from Jax).  Minnesota got younger with both of those moves, and while Diggs is very productive, when paying your QB premium $, you expect/need him to make-up for lack of receiving “talent.” 

Ngakoue could present a problem for the Packers’ OL.  Last year, Bryan Bulaga had his best season in a very solid career. He’s gone.  However, the Packers have caught a major break with (arguably) Minnesota’s best player – Danielle Hunter #99 – being placed on IR, Green Bay only needs to worry about the newcomer – Yannick Ngakoue #91.  Green Bay’s new RT- Billy Turner #77 (who was the worst starter for the Packers’ stellar OL in 2019) may be tasked with keeping Rodgers upright…that is if Turner clears his injury and is ready by kickoff.

Advantage?  I believe the Packers’ offense (now in the 2nd year of LaFleur’s system) has the advantage over Minnesota’s defense.  One of their most-impressive wins in 2019 came on Monday Night Football in Minneapolis to seal the division by winning 23-10.  Winning on the road in Minnesota, as the Packers, is about a tough-a-place to play as anywhere.  It’s always loud and they’re geared up like it’s the Super Bowl (because it is for them), and the Packers dominated in all 3-phases for all 4 quarters of that game.  There’s no reason to think this won’t be like that atmosphere again…oh, except there won’t be ANY fans in attendance. 

As for the Packers’ D v Vikings’ O?  I think that’s a stale-mate.  The Packers front should be able to get pressure on Cousins like last year, especially if 2019 1st round pick (Rashan Gary #52) takes a much-needed jump.  Minnesota’s equalizer is HB Dalvin Cook #33.  The only thing to slow him down are injuries.  He’s as dynamic, if not more so, than Aaron Jones and is a true natural runner of the football.  If Green Bay can force Cousins to beat them, I believe it’ll be 3 wins in a row for the Green & Gold.  If it’s Dalvin Cook’s game…not so much.

Packers 24
Vikings 21

Overall: 55-31

In Case Telecast Feeds Cut Out…Here’s What’s to Happen.

The season is…well, here.  Who knew?  While everyone complained about the preseason, it was good for quite a few things.

  1. Staying on schedule
  2. Hyping up the season (aka creating interest)
  3. Getting an idea of who, what, why, etc.

Now with the season just abruptly starting, it’s odd how little interest there seems to be amongst the masses.  However, it’s still going on as scheduled…for now.  Keep in mind there’s an additional playoff team this year, making 7 per conference.  Leaving only the 1 seed with a BYE, which makes the regular that much more important.  As always, I’ve predicted every single regular season game to come up with the records (while I don’t think every team will have these records, I do believe these will be the playoff seedings).  Let’s look at how the 2020 season will shake out.  If you recall, I’ve nailed the last 2 Super Bowl winners.

AFC North   NFC North  
3Baltimore115 3Green Bay115
5Pittsburgh115 Chicago610
6Cleveland115 Minnesota610
Cincinnati313 Detroit412
       
South   South  
2Houston133 4New Orleans106
7Tennessee106 7Tampa Bay97
Jacksonville610 Atlanta88
Indianapolis511 Carolina610
       
East   East  
4New England97 2Dallas115
Buffalo610 5Philadelphia106
Miami610 New York313
New York412 Washington313
       
West   West  
1Kansas City142 1San Francisco124
Denver97 6Seattle106
Los Angeles79 Los Angeles88
Las Vegas610 Arizona88

*The regular season finished standings seem somewhat realistic, especially if Patrick Mahomes continues this trend of being MegaMan.  Some teams will surprise and some will disappoint, as always, but it’s the teams that have a real shot to win the Super Bowl that should draw your most attention, as well as your favorite team.  How would the playoffs shake out given these seedings?

Wild Card
5Pittsburgh@4New England
6Cleveland@3Baltimore
7Tennessee@2Houston
5Philadelphia@4New Orleans
6Seattle@3Green Bay
7Tampa Bay@2Dallas
Divisional
3Baltimore@2Houston
5Pittsburgh@1Kansas City
4New Orleans@3Green Bay
7Tampa Bay@1San Francisco
Championship
3Baltimore@1Kansas City
3Green Bay@1San Francisco
Super Bowl LV
3Baltimorev3Green Bay

This may be tough to follow, but keep in the mind the 1 seed in each conference gets a BYE in the playoffs, where every other team must play 3 games to get to the Super Bowl.  However, the 2 seed has an advantage of having at least 2 home games before having to travel.  I feel somewhat confident in the Packers finishing 11-5 (again, assuming the season plays 16 which there’s no reason they shouldn’t, but that’s not why you’re here). 

In my scenario, I have Green Bay getting the 3 seed, meaning they’d get 2 home playoff games, just like the 2 seed, should they win Wild Card weekend.  We see a rematch from last year’s Divisional Playoff between 6th seeded Seattle and 3rd seeded Green Bay, which even in the old playoff format would be the same.  Much like last year, Seattle (and Russell Wilson) isn’t nearly as good on the road as at home, especially in the playoffs.  If memory serves me right, Wilson’s only 2 road playoff wins are his rookie year @ Washington with fellow rookie QB RGIII, and that defense was outstanding.  The other from last year where Seattle traveled to a decimated Philadelphia team, and while leading the whole game, struggled to pull away.  Expect much of the same in this rematch—Green Bay to take early control and hold on to the victory.

Enter the Divisional Round, which was the expected Div. Rd. matchup last year: Saints @ Packers.  New Orleans inexplicably lost to Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, at home!  The Saints have one of the most complete rosters in the NFL, but much like Seattle, are a far different animal away from their loud-ass home stadium.  Drew Brees will just have turned 42 years old and having to play in single-digit temperatures, likely at night, is the best-case scenario for a Packers’ defense.  Aaron Jones and the defense make enough plays in the blistering cold to come out with a close, hard-fought W and move on to the NFC Championship for yet another rematch with the 49ers.

Ahh yes, back to the place where the massacre started as soon as Rodgers bypassed an open Jimmy Graham on 3rd and short on the first offensive possession of the game (after the defense held a 3 & out on SF’s first) and instead dumped it off to Jamaal Williams with almost no chance to gain the first down.  Then with confidence from his defense, rookie Head Coach Matt LaFleur decided to punt and we all know what happened after that…

For you that know me, know I have little confidence in the Packers winning another Super Bowl, especially with Rodgers, but I do think if this scenario plays out- Green Bay will be pulling out all the stops with their actual goal of getting past the NFC title game and getting to the Super Bowl.  I too believe most fans will be happy as a clam if this were to occur, and that’s mostly why I think Green Bay will pull out the win – that and actually having another year with the Smith Bros., Amos, Savage, and an athletic MLB in Pettine’s defense…as well as LaFleur’s 2nd year as play-caller, it could resemble the Shanahan-led 9ers offense, which is run-focused.

So, let’s say the Packers find themselves in Tampa Bay for Super Bowl LV, as you can see I have them matched up vs. Baltimore.  This is a decent match-up for the Packers.  The Ravens’ D is outstanding, much like San Fran’s, and they’re a run-focused team, but in a different sense.  Lamar Jackson (2019 NFL MVP) is so dynamic and absolutely kills you with his legs.  The focus there should be to get a solid hit on him as often as possible, that will wear him down and ultimately could (should) lead to inaccurate throws and turnovers.  Green Bay will likely need 3 turnovers (and be +3 in that category) to win the game.  In the end, I think it’s a gut-wrenching loss, much like Super Bowl XXXII where the Packers will have the ball with about 3 minutes left and needing a touchdown to win and come up short. 

Another great steppingstone, but we’re passed that phase as fans, aren’t we?  Just think, if the world returns to normal and we’re allowed to watch camp, practice, preseason games, and hell even attend games in person…think of the setup coming into 2021 with the Packers having come off NFC title and Super Bowl losses in back-to-back years and the possibility of trading Aaron Rodgers should Jordan Love be ready to step in…