Review~ Green Bay and their QB played a very clean, efficient game and Rodgers was extremely clutch on 3^rd down.  Looking at the Team Stats from the game, it shows it’d be a close game with the edge going to Seattle.  However, since neither team had a turnover – (a fumble that should’ve gone to Sullivan on Seattle’s first drive), and Kevin King dropped an easy pick—the key then goes to 3^rd down efficiency.  Green Bay converted 9-of-14 (64%) third downs while limiting Seattle to 3-of-9 (33%).  Rodgers connected with Jimmy Graham three times, all converting a huge 3^rd down- the last to seal the game and move the Packers to Championship Sunday.

As I stated last week, Seattle was missing a legitimate starting Halfback, and old-and-slow Marshawn Lynch proved to be just that.  While he had 2 touchdowns, both came from goal line situations, otherwise he was a non-factor and it was all on Russell Wilson to win the game, which proved to be too much as he was sacked on a the Packers’ defense’s biggest 3^rd down of the game.  Carroll’s decision to punt risked his offense not getting the ball back, which was foolish as Rodgers had gone 7-of-12 on 3^rd downs in the game, up to that point.  Also, the Packers had scored touchdowns on half of their possessions in the game, punting on the other 4.  Meaning, best case scenario, the Seahawks would be to get the ball back around their 22 yard line, with about 1:45 left and a timeout or two, and needing a touchdown.  This shows how important building a lead is, because it demands damn near perfection from the losing team to come all the way back and win.  While many think the 2014 title game was reminiscent of this one, I (in attendance) never once thought the Packers would let this slip away—Wilson doesn’t win in Lambeau.  Yes he was great in the 2^nd half, however for as awesome as he was then, he was that “pedestrian” in the 1^st half.  He missed open targets and overthrew Malik Turner (#17) on the first play of their 3^rd drive which should’ve resulted in the King interception, so on and so forth.

In the end, the Packers were the better team for the entirety of the game, and it showed.  Now can the Packers go to Santa Clara, California and build a lead to make the better team (San Francisco) play perfect to come back?

Preview~ a rematch of the ass-kicking that took place in Week 12 on Sunday night, November 24^th.  It was the Packers’ first game coming off the BYE, and they were quite healthy going into a banged up San Fran team.  Every Packer fan likely has trouble scrubbing that from their memory, as they should.  The 9ers were the most complete team in the NFC all season, and even went into Baltimore and gave them a tough test (losing 20-17 on a FG as time expired).

The realist in you should be worried about where the Packers can gain an advantage to potentially upset the vaunted 49ers.  Let’s take a look at how these teams matchup:

	Pass	Rush	Total	Points	Give-Take	Pt. Diff.
GB-O	233.3 (17)	112.2 (15)	345.5 (18)	23.5 (15)	13 (2)	63 (9)
SF-D	169.3 (1)	112.6 (17)	281.8 (2)	19.4 (8)	27 (6)	169 (3)
					Take-Give
GB-D	232.6 (14)	120.1 (23)	352.6 (18)	19.6 (9)	25 (T-7)
SF-O	237.0 (13)	144.1 (2)	381.1 (4)	29.9 (2)	23 (T-19)

As you can see, the Packers really only have 2 areas of advantage: Rush O vs SF’s rush D and the Turnover differential.  The Packers were +12 (tied-3^rd) where San Francisco finished +4 (tied-10^th).  That’s where Green Bay will need to take advantage if they plan to pull this game out.  If Green Bay can “steal” 2 possessions and score touchdowns on each, creating a 14-28 point swing that would put them in the driver’s seat.  However, getting the lead/scoring 1^st should be the priority for the Packers.  Let’s make Jimmy Garoppolo play from behind and somehow if you’re able to jump out to a 10-0 or 14-3 lead, that should allow Pettine to put his defense in a great position to control the game and dictate what Shanahan does on offense.

This has been one of, if not the, most parodied seasons in recent memory for the NFL, so it’s only fitting that the Packers found a way to have an opportunity to “steal” a ring.  Not only would that go a ways into cementing Rodgers’ legacy (while I thought he’d have 3 by the time he’s done after initially seeing him start a whole season in 2008, I also said after 2014 he’d never win another), when looking into each season and how things transpire- careers are judged at overall accomplishments and not how the accomplishments were attained…but that’s another topic for the offseason (man I’m really mounting those up this playoff run).

In the end, while I wouldn’t be shocked if the Packers pulled this out, and I do think 90% (maybe more) are dictated by the play of the QB, Rodgers typically sucks in NFC title games.  We also have no clue about Jimmy G and his Big Game situations.  He was quite fortunate to have his 1^st playoff appearance come against Kirk Cousins – who’s notorious for choking in big games – and for it to come at home after a bye.  This should be a much more even matchup, and possibly even back-and-forth, but in the end, I think the 49ers have too much of an advantage at other areas and QB-play is close to even…at least heading into this.  If Rodgers kills it like he did on 3^rd down in the Divisional game in the Championship game, there’s no doubt the Packers will be moving on.

Packers 21
49ers 27

Season: 11-6
Overall: 54-31

Rankings~ Redemption? Not really.  Winning this game will not make up for the epic choke job in the 2014 NFC title game, however, it could be part of the healing process if this turns to back-to-back Super Bowl titles.

Let’s take a look at the rankings and how these teams match-up.

	Pass	Rush	Total	Points
Seattle O	236.9 (14)	137.5 (4)	374.4 (8)	25.3 (9)
Green Bay D	232.6 (14)	120.1 (23)	352.6 (18)	19.6 (9)
Green Bay O	233.3 (17)	112.2 (15)	345.5 (18)	23.5 (15)
Seattle D	263.9 (27)	117.7 (22)	381.6 (26)	24.9 (22)

Match-up~ I’ve highlighted the advantages for each team in their matchups, with the rankings in parenthesis.  As you can see, Seattle has the advantage on offense in the run game, which translates to total offense, in yards.  However, there’s more to it than that—the Seahawks are now featuring their 4^th, 5^th, and 6^th string running backs: Marshawn Lynch (#24); Travis Homer (#25); Robert Turbin (#34).  So the Packers technically have the upper-hand there now.

The Packers’ Offense seemingly has the advantage in every category vs. Seattle.  The Seahawks are also giving up more points/game than the Packers averaged this season, which bodes well as the postseason is typically lower-scoring so points are harder to come by.

The other rankings, which are very important, are Turnovers and Point Differential.  Combine all of these rankings and it gives you a great idea as to true strength of a team.  Each of these teams finished the season +12 in turnovers (T-3^rd), however the odd thing was Seattle only scored 7 more points than they gave up this season, which is difficult to do when you finish 11-5.  Meaning when they lose, they got had—and when they win, it’s typically close.

QB Match-up~ while Russell Wilson has been in the conversation for MVP this season, deservedly so, a QB’s job is to win.  Hence why they’re judged on Super Bowl wins (as they should be), and Wilson has done a decent job, but the dynamic of Seattle has switched from a suffocating defense to a solid QB with a bunch of weapons at the skill positions.  The Packers have focused on their defense, and while it may seem they’ve neglected the offense, they did spend (terribly overspent) $ on Jimmy Graham, and brought in RG Billy Turner (#77), with all the money allocated to Rodgers, put it on him to make everyone else better.  Which he’s done for most of the season, hence 13-3.  Rodgers, at home, is a tough out, and while only 3-2 in Lambeau in the playoffs, the advantage MUST side with him and the Packers here.

Rodgers vs. Wilson: 3-4.  With each W coming by the home team.  This makes complete sense as the Packers outplayed the Seahawks in 2 of those game in Seattle (9/24/2012- Fail Mary & 1/18/2015- NFC Title Game).

All of these rankings, turnovers, point differential, QB matchup…who wins?  I began the week somewhat nervous and skeptical—however, all I could think about is the absolute worst-case scenario of hosting the Vikings in an NFC Title game and losing…that’d be the worst!  Am I thinking ahead?  Yep, as we all should!

Seahawks 13
Packers 27

Season: 10-6
Overall: 53-31

Review~ glad I missed on the meter that Rodgers somehow fell behind Cousins on the QB-level meter.  Cousins must be the worst “big game” QB ever.  Considering all of his “big games,” aside from 1, have come in the regular season, that’s telling.  Rodgers didn’t play all that well, he actually played somewhat terrible, but came up with enough throws and still built a lead when Cousins couldn’t fully capitalize on the 3 turnovers.

It was also refreshing to see the Packers continue to feed Aaron Jones after his lost fumble on the first 3^rd down of the game.  25 touches for 160 yards, that’s how you take and keep control of a game even when you’re not playing well.  Kudos to LaFleur and Rodgers for sticking with it.

Current Standing~ now the Packers are in a great spot, win and get a BYE.  Couple that with a Seahawks win over San Francisco tonight, and the Packers are the 1 seed in the NFC.  If Green Bay will continue to stick with the run/Aaron Jones, even when on the road in a big game in a dome (last week), that should give hope they’d do the same at home, which would be much easier for both the O and D to play well.

Preview~ enter the awful Detroit Lions.  The last time the Packers saw this team, they were 2-1-1, and both the tie was close (obviously) and their loss was a back and forth battle to a healthy Chiefs team.  They still have a bunch of guys that can “compete,” but that doesn’t necessarily translate into Wins.  Look for the Packers to take control of this game out of the shoot and lock up a BYE in the playoffs.

Packers 27
Lions 10

Season: 9-6
Overall: 52-31

A gift, thanks Arizona (and Brett Hundley???)  The Packers sit as the 2^nd seed in the NFC playoff picture (with a win).  They control their destiny for that 2 seed- should they win out, they can do no worse than the 2 seed.  Win out and have Seattle beat SF and the Packers are the 1 seed and fare much better vs any opponent in Lambeau than heading on the road, and/or not even having a BYE.

Preview~ win and win the division.  Winning the division is key, but far from the ultimate goal.  While a huge step in the right direction for a 1^st year head coach, be wary that doesn’t necessarily mean much (i.e. Nagy and the Bears did the same last year going 12-4).  While I think the Packers are a much better run organization than Chicago, it’s still worth mentioning…plus, it’s ok to have expectations of winning more than initial thoughts coming into the season, especially that the Packers have only secured a BYE in the postseason 5 times since Brett Favre entered Green Bay.  This could be the sixth, and in my previous blog, I showed the importance of earning a BYE…the last 6 seasons, the Super Bowl has only had representatives that have had a BYE.  1 seed, as you’d imagine, is even more indicative of getting to the Super Bowl.  Keep Winning.

Team	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	T/O	Rank	Point. Diff.	Rank
GB	23.6	14th	20.2	9th	14	2nd	47	10th
Min	27	6th	18.5	6th	11	T-4th	119	4th

While the graph shows Minnesota ranking better both offensively and defensively (by points), Green Bay has been getting it done with not turning it over and making their opponents drive the length of the field to score…which is Pettine’s “Bend but Don’t Break” motto.  The issue with metrics, while over the course of a season may help, in only 1 game one key mistake likely will determine the outcome—and the Packers are built for the offense not to have a single turnover.  It’s still tough not to think about the opening series in San Fran where Rodgers fumbled and essentially changed the entire game.  The Packers are behind the 8-ball this game, with Minnesota playing well and having quite a bit of talent in the right areas, while being well-balanced.

If the Packers can equalize them enough to bring this to a Rodgers v Cousins game, that should be enough considering Captain Average (err Kirk) sucks in primetime games especially vs. “Good” teams.  Then again, if Rodgers can’t outperform Kirk…

Win and 12-3, heading into Detroit with a boat load of momentum with the ability to lock up the 2 seed, and potentially home field advantage, would be quite the accomplishment for a rookie head coach—then I’d say “don’t waste the opportunity.”  Lose, and well…it’s still a must-win in Detroit for the division, but then likely hosting San Fran or Seattle in the wild card round with the right to travel to New Orleans…yikes…

Packers 24
Vikings 31

Season: 9-5
Overall: 52-30

Review~ an ugly win, however good teams win ugly from time to time.  How important is winning “pretty” vs. teams one “should’ve have an issue?”

1. Defense- locked down until it was essentially over.
2. Offense- began fast, which is a huge improvement from last year, but needs to finish more consistently.
3. Special Teams- may be fixed, or at least improved enough to not be a liability.

As stated last week, no matter what the Packers did, aside from losing- this was a no-win scenario.  Everything is leading up to these final 3 games, all divisional opponents- and each carrying a huge component.

This week’s component?  Knocking the Bears from the postseason—and possibly clinching a playoff berth of their own.  If the Packers win, the Bears are out of the playoffs. A 7-loss team cannot make the playoffs in the NFC, unless it’s the Vikings or Rams.

The Packers can clinch if they best the Bears and the Rams lose.  In order to win the division, the Packers must win any 2 of the remaining 3 games on their schedule.  If the Packers win out, they’re guaranteed at least the 2 seed.  They could get some major help, and wind up as the 1 seed, but that’d be tough to count on.  Let’s focus on beating the Bears…

Preview~ end the Bears’ season.  Chicago has been riding high, winning 4 of their last 5.  They’re back in the playoff hunt, still essentially needing to win out, but this is another major opportunity for Green Bay to knock them off, and build a bunch of confidence (especially on offense) vs. a very good defense.

	OFF	DEF	T/O	Pt. Diff.
Chi	26th	4th	T-14th	15th
GB	13th	13th	T-3rd	11th

The Packers are the better team, completely shut down the Bears in their week 1 meeting to open the NFL’s 100^th season, and it should be more of the same.  Scoring 24 points at home, vs. any defense shouldn’t be too big of an ask, but with the offense stalling for 2+ consecutive quarters more often than not, vs. bad defenses…well…I’m not too optimistic.

This is the Bears’ Super Bowl and you’ll get their best shot…

Bears 20
Packers 24

Season: 8-5
Overall: 51-30

Review~ the game vs. the Giants went the way it was supposed to.  However, not without a bit of a struggle to pull away until late.  However, good teams do what they’re supposed to, and close out the game vs. an inferior opponent.  Still, getting the 3 turnovers that Daniel Jones will typically give you, the Packers still show they’re capable of beating bad teams and it’s very tough to imagine beating a good team, which they’d ultimately have to do once or twice in the playoffs if they plan on actually winning the Super Bowl.

Another frustrating item with this team is it seems the defense, as a whole, isn’t much better than the last few years’.  The defense is ranked 14^th in scoring, giving up an average of 21.3 points/game.  Another indicator of overall team play is the point differential.  I’ve found myself in many disagreements, especially in baseball, about a team’s true strength determined by point differential.  The Packers are 9-3, but only have a +34 differential, which ranks them 11^th in the NFL.  To give some insight, here’s a listing/ranking of where the Super Bowl winners from the past 10 seasons have ranked:

Year	Team	Differential	Rank
2018	Patriots	111	5
2017	Eagles	162	1
2016	Patriots	191	1
2015	Broncos	59	10
2014	Patriots	155	1
2013	Seahawks	186	2
2012	Ravens	54	11
2011	Giants	-6	19
2010	Packers	148	2
2009	Saints	169	1
		122.9	5.3

As you can see, four of the past 10 winners have ranked 1^st, and two have ranked 2^nd.  A clear indication that point differential is telling in the sense of a true “chance of winning,” couple that with scoring defensive rank and one might be able to predict the winner heading into the playoffs.  A lot of these coincide, ala high point differential means a lot of wins, which equals home field advantage, which means they’re likely to get to the Super Bowl and are just a solid team.

Preview~ another week, and another No-Win scenario for the Packers.  To paraphrase Mayor Larry Vaughn (from Jaws) Blow the doors off Washington, and no one bats an eye.  Struggle or lose?  Well, then you have panic on your hands leading into Christmas.

The Redskins seems to be in full rebuild- owner’s fault- yet are somehow not eliminated from playoff (division) contention at 3-9 due to the NFC East being terrible.  As you can see on the chart below, the Redskins have the worst offense in the entire NFL, a rookie QB that makes plenty of mistakes, and holes all over the rest of their roster.

Points	Offense	Defense	T/O	Point Diff.
Was	14.4 (32nd)	24.2 (21st)	2 (T-13th)	(117) (30th)
GB	24.1 (11th)	21.3 (14th)	11 (T-2nd)	34 (11th)

The Packers shouldn’t have any trouble in this one, but then again, it’s the Packers and they typically lose a game they have no business losing…hopefully that’s out of the way from the Charger game.

Redskins 14
Packers 38

Season: 7-5
Overall: 50-30

Review~ what an absolute ass-kicking.  While I don’t think San Francisco is THAT good, it may be more telling that the Packers may not be as good as their record suggests…albeit, they’re still 8-3 and destined for the 3^rd, 5^th, or 6^th seed in the NFC playoffs.  Should Green Bay win out, they’ll likely get the 2 seed, possibly the 1, but that would be assuming they’d win in Minnesota, which they’ve yet to do since opening that new stadium.  Also assuming Seattle and San Francisco would lose twice more (SF would have to lose thrice more).

What was once considered the Packers’ strength; offensive line…was once again relegated to severe weakness.  Then again, they were dominated in every phase of the game.  The off-putting part of this is Green Bay had 2 weeks to prepare for the biggest game in 3 years and could not have played worse.  The defense somewhat kept them in the game for about 1.5 quarters, but all of the 3 and outs were too much to overcome and the D gave away eventually.  Credit to San Francisco for being well-prepared and kept their foot down to blast the Packers back to an average to maybe above-avg. team.  The next test for Green Bay won’t come until week 16 in Minneapolis, where they’ll likely drop that game too.

Current Standing~ The Packers have an uphill battle (and need some help) to not only get the 1 seed, but just to get a first round BYE.  That’s how big that game was last Sunday.  Instead of being the 1 seed, the Packers find themselves as the 3 seed and a must-win at Minnesota to just keep that.

As it sits right now here’s the current playoff standings:

1 San Francisco 10-1
2 New Orleans 10-2
—————————————
3 Green Bay 8-3
4 Dallas 6-6
5 Seattle 9-2
6 Minnesota 8-3

There’s a monumental matchup next week when the 49ers travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints. The winner will be in the driver’s seat for the 1^st seed, until the 9ers travel again to Seattle, in week 17 for a rematch with the Seahawks—whom delivered SF’s only loss.

All in all, SF seems like the class of the NFC along with Seattle and possibly New Orleans.  The Packers have a chance to solidify themselves up there if they were to win out and garner a BYE.  San Fran likely has 2 losses coming, but that would mean Seattle needs to find a way to lose 2 more too, assuming the Packers win out- otherwise there’s no hope for the 1 seed.  However, should the Packers win out (finish 13-3), that would be an incredible 1^st season for a rookie Head Coach, and would give the Packers an inside track to the NFC title game.  And who knows, if Rodgers and LaFleur forget Adams is on the field, it may not matter because the offense was ROLLING when #12 had no legit weapons, aside from his running back, Aaron Jones.

Preview~ enter a perfect remedy, the New York Giants.  The Giants are arguably the 2^nd or 3^rd worst team in the NFL.  The Giants rank 30^th in turnover differential with -11 and their defense isn’t any better, ranking 29^th in points given up: 28.0/game.  The Packers can key on sensational running back, Saquan Barkley (#26) and force rookie QB Daniel Jones (#6) into beating them, which there should be no way in that happening.

After getting a couple of interceptions and/or strip sacks, the Packers should punch in and capitalize on short fields for much of the day and hang at least 31 on this team.  All gearing up for another easy test against the other crap team from the NFC East, the Washington Redskins.

Packers 34
Giants 17

Season: 6-5
Overall: 49-30

Current Standing—the Packers find themselves tied for the 2^nd best record in the NFC, however hold the tiebreaker over New Orleans (currently) with a better record vs. NFC opponents.  Again, the 49ers have a daunting schedule coming up, beginning on Sunday Night vs. Green Bay.  While you shouldn’t look ahead (fans can do whatever), you can bank on San Fran dropping at least another game or two- or 3- before the year finishes out.  Winning this game would pit you vs. New Orleans and Minnesota for a 1 seed…and if you can’t beat Kirk Cousins in a Primetime game and are a good opponent, you’re not a real contender.

Preview—are the San Francisco 49ers for real?  So far, they certainly seem so, however they can only play who they play, and have done a really nice job putting themselves in this position.  It does seem that both teams could be considered playing with “House Money.”  However, as a Packers fan this is an opportunity to win a Super Bowl without having to have a feeling of “luck” or “destiny” be tagged to them.

The rankings in the chart below are up-to-date prior to the kickoff from the Thu night game of Ind v. Hou.  The Packers are the epitome of a “Bend but Don’t Break” team/defense, as the rankings suggest when compared to their 8-2 record.  Adversely, San Francisco’s rankings fit their 9-1 record.  When you look at strength of schedule played so far, the Packers have played the 9^th toughest schedule vs. San Frank playing the 3^rd easiest.  I believe there’s something to be said for all of that.  Does this mean the 49ers aren’t as good as their record?  Probably, but it will be proven out come Sunday night.

Team	Total Off (rank)	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	Pts	STs
GB	356.0 (17th)	253.9 (11th)	102.1 (18th)	25.0 (9th)	0.5% (14th)
SF	386.6 (5th)	237.6 (15th)	149.0 (2nd)	29.5 (2nd)	0.3% (16th)
	Total Def (rank)	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	Pts	T/O
GB	384.7 (28th)	257.8 (23rd)	126.9 (25th)	20.5 (16th)	9 (T-2nd)
SF	253.0 (2nd)	142.5 (1st)	110.5 (20th)	15.5 (2nd)	5 (T-7th)

The matchup I typically look at will be the OL vs. DL when both teams have the ball.  The 9ers possess a solid DL headlined by rookie standout, Nick Bosa, brother of Joey Bosa who gave Bulaga all sorts of fits in the Packers’ 2^nd loss of the season in Los Angeles.

Keep an eye on the line surge (if the line of scrimmage moves forward or backward, either way) and overall turnover battle.  I thought the Packers would lose a close game for the last 2 weeks, but may have talked myself into picking them.

Packers 27
49ers 20

Season: 6-4
Overall: 49-29

The Packers enter their week 11 bye in the driver’s seat for the 1 seed in the NFC.  Meaning Green Bay controls their own destiny for home-field advantage, which is a great indicator of whom represents each conference in the Super Bowl.  The importance of earning, not only a bye but, home field advantage is HUGE!

Green Bay currently is tied for 3^rd best record in the NFL at 8-2.  The only teams ahead are New England and San Francisco, both at 8-1, and each losing their last time out.

• Side note—both have been critiqued a bit on whether they’ve actually played “tough competition” so far. Well, we do know that San Fran has their hands full in their remaining 7 games, after they get a decent opponent in Arizona, they welcome another tough opponent in the Packers to prime-time and the Packers will be coming off a bye.

Over the last 15 seasons (30 teams to make the Super Bowl) only 7 teams have made the Super Bowl with 6 of those 7 teams winning the Super Bowl.  What does this mean?  Essentially 77% of the participants of the Super Bowl either had a 1 or 2 seed.  What’s even more telling, is the 1 seed made the Super Bowl 53% of the time, winning 20% of the time.  So just by pure math, over the last 15 years, earning a 1 seed gives you a 1/5 chance of winning the Super Bowl, which isn’t bad considering 12 teams make it—weighing the odds in your favor.

Lastly- the importance of the 1 seed, especially of recent, since 2013 only teams with a bye have made the Super Bowl and all but 3 of those teams (12 teams total) have been 1 seeds.  The nice thing about the Packers potentially getting home field is their finally built (both with players and coaches) to win in the cold.  When Davante Adams went out, the Packers (mainly Rodgers) seemed to follow a true West Coast offense with short passes and a run game to control the clock, which when he’s in rhythm is damn near impossible to stop, regardless of his receiving corps…evidenced by that 4 game stretch where they were blowing teams out and getting off to fast starts.

Rooting interest this weekend without Packer football????  Here’s who WE want to win to help the Packers, again, if the Packers win out none of these matter much, but should Green Bay stumble along the road, these would help.

• Falcons > Panthers
• Lions > Cowboys
• Broncos > Vikings
• Buccaneers > Saints
• Cardinals > 49ers
• Patriots > Eagles

 

 

 

 

There’s losing/getting beat, then there’s what the Packers did—not show up.  Without even looking at body-language, just the effort and execution (or lack thereof) were very apparent and the Chargers Beat They Ass.  This is what happens when you Roll The Helmets Out vs. a very talented and hungry team, on the road.  Ultimately this falls on the Head Coach, and it’s almost expected to happen with a new coach, but it doesn’t make it any less frustrating.

I figured the Packers would have a letdown, but didn’t think it was coming in this game and didn’t think it would be this drastic.  Hopefully this is a wake-up call, but it doesn’t get any easier as in the next 3 weeks (2 games) are legitimate teams with huge ramifications on playoff seeding.  So, to take away, the “positives” from this game are:

1. If you’re going to lose, might as well be a road game vs. an AFC opponent (tiebreakers don’t come into play).
2. With as low an effort (none) as Green Bay showed, they did not commit a turnover at all.

Review—Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram were able to get to Rodgers, sometimes without even getting touched by either Bakhtiari or Bulaga.  The odd thing is the tackle combo (considered the best in the NFL) has been just awesome all year and completely didn’t show up this game.  They’re not the only ones at fault, but they had the worst game of anyone else.

The positives?  There weren’t any turnovers and usually everyone has a “clunker.”  However, it’s rare that good teams have one this bad, but it does happen…i.e. the Patriots on Sunday Night Football in Baltimore.

Preview—moving on…a rematch of the 1996 NFC Championship game: Carolina Panthers.

	Yds/Gm	Pass	Rush	Points	SoS
Panthers O	339.8 (22)	206.9 (25)	132.9 (7)	26.1 (10)	0.9 (11)
Packers D	382.9 (26)	255.2 (21)	127.7 (24)	21.0 (11)	1.5 (4)
					T/O
Panthers D	360.4 (19)	227.0 (9)	133.4 (26)	25.5 (21)	+6 (5)
Packers O	352.4 (17)	257.1 (12)	95.3 (22)	25.1 (13)	+7 (T-3)

Carolina is good.  They’re just a solid team.  They possess every bit as much talent as the LA Chargers, but it’s in different spots.  Their top two players are in solid spots: HB #22 Christian McCaffrey; MLB #59 Luke Kuechly.  Those two are certifiable studs and that doesn’t bode well since the Packers struggle vs. the rush.  In fact, looking at the table above, the Packers don’t have really any advantages yet they’re favored by 5.   However, the Panthers don’t seem to be a real contender, and the Packers need to prove that out come Sunday.

1. The Panthers rank 1^st in the NFL with 34 sacks and 4^th in opponent QB rating: 77.5. The positives are the Packers rank 14^th in sacks given up (20), and 7^th in QB rating with 104.4.  Couple that with playing at home, in an ideal fall weather, coming off an embarrassment and in a damn near must-win game (that is if you have Super Bowl aspirations), it’s the Packers’ game to lose.
2. Per usual, this game will come down to 2 things, QB-play and turnovers. I’ll throw in a 3^rd, O-line play.  Bakhtiari and Bulaga need to step their game back up to the standard they’ve set this year vs. a formidable front 7: McCoy; Poe; Butler; Addison; Thompson; Kuechly; Irvin.  Those guys can’t take over like the Bosa/Ingram combo did last week.  So running the ball is imperative!
   1. The Panthers were able to give QB Kyle Allen a clean pocket vs. Tennessee, last week, and he proved to be very accurate. Let’s see what the Smith Bros. can drum up in terms of consistent pressure.
3. The Panthers’ Kicker, Joey Slye, had some issues last week in perfect conditions. He missed a big extra point (to increase the lead to 17, a 3-score game), and missed a 49-yard FG.  The Packers should have a distinct advantage in the kicking game, considering Green Bay has 2 of the best (Crosby and Scott) and are used to kicking in Lambeau which is a tricky wind stadium.

Huge Game—the only opponents remaining on the schedule reside in the NFC.  Three of those teams have winning records, and it all begins with Carolina.  Hopefully the Packers aren’t looking ahead to the BYE or to the following week @ San Francisco.  Take care of business at home, and get rested at 8-2 heading into the Bye.  After that, the season will really be in Ramp Up time, and really start to get fun.  Lose?  Then it’s another Just get in the playoffs and see what happens type season…we know how that all works.

Panthers 28
Packers 31

Season: 5-4
Overall: 48-29