Review – It’d be something else to see this Packers team put together a complete 60-minute performance.  The Wild Card game v the Giants left a lot to be desired whereas the 2^nd half in the Divisional round at Dallas was eerily similar.  Either way, the Packers found ways to close both of those games, adding to the confidence of Packer fans across the nation.

Dez Bryant ended up having a great game, however that came at what seemed to be the expense of Zeke not controlling the game, which was crucial.  Aaron Rodgers played well, missed a couple of throws but nailed, what I believe is, the most clutch throw of his career (35-yarder to Cook setting up Mason Crosby’s 51-yard game-winning Field Goal).

Preview – the Falcons bring a great offense, very similar to the Packers – they also possess a banged up and just plain BAD defense: as do the Packers.  I reviewed the Falcons entire season and it comes down to them having 1, yep just one, single impressive victory.  It came week 3 at Oakland.  Since then they’ve been feasting on bad teams, including the awful Seattle team that somehow finished the season with a winning record.

Packers 34
Falcons 24

*22-14, Yes I missed last week, but it ended up being a coin flip…this one I’m a bit more confident in.

Many think this will be the toughest match up yet…let’s take a look to see if that’s the case.

Review –that game was awesome, eh?  It was great to be at, too!  After underwhelming for the first 25 minutes, the Packers’ offense and mainly quarterback, Aaron Rodgers woke up and decided to destroy the talented Giants’ defense.  Well into the 2^nd quarter I looked up at the scoreboard and noted Green Bay had a whopping 7 total yards of offense.  From that point on the Packers amassed 399 yards in about 2.25 quarters.  That production is a tough standard to hold, even for the fans with the highest expectations – considering the Giants possess a great defense.

Losing Jordy Nelson could be a huge loss, considering he and #12 were finding their rhythm. Yes, the offense took off shortly after Nelson left with broken ribs, but keep in mind the Giants also lost a solid cornerback in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, essentially nullifying the Nelson injury (to which I believe was a legal hit, by the way).

The two players I highlighted to watch was the matchup of Giants superstar wideout Odell Beckham, Jr. vs. Packers undrafted 2^nd year player, Ladarius Gunter.  Gunter was burned on two plays resulting in zero yards…the first was the dropped TD, which prompted the thoughts and responses of the Miami boat trip!  And rightfully so!  That was a huge play in the game and who knows how that would’ve changed the dynamic.

PFF grades, with 8 players grading at an 80+:

MLB Jake Ryan 93.6
CB Damarious Randall 88.8
WR Randall Cobb 88.3
WR Davante Adams 83.8
RT Bryan Bulaga 83.1
QB Aaron Rodgers 81.9
RG TJ Lang 80.7
DL Mike Daniels 80.4

Preview – This is the best matchup of teams on the entire divisional round weekend.

Packers-                                               Dallas-
Offense: 8^th                                        Offense: 5^th  
Defense: 22^nd                                    Defense: 14^th

In their week 6 matchup the Packers’ offense was sputtering (that’s a compliment for how the QB was playing and the head coach was attempting to get him out of the rut)…however, there were 3 keys that determined the Cowboys throttling of the Packers at hallowed Lambeau Field.

1. 4 turnovers committed by Green Bay (all at awful times; 3 by Aaron Rodgers)
2. Packers’ D tried getting greedy and calling timeouts with 0:39 left in the 2^nd quarter to get the ball back, but ended up giving up a TD.
3. First possession of the 2^nd half, Rodgers threw an INT that no Packer fan has seen him throw before (he was tricked, and/or didn’t see the safety come into the route of Randall Cobb).

I believe I’ve said this before, but the team that controls the line of scrimmage controls the game.  The Packers have the 2^nd best offensive line in the NFL, unfortunately the Dallas Cowboys possess the best.  Dallas brings the 2^nd rush offense into this game vs. the Packers 8^th ranked rush defense, but that didn’t matter much when they racked up 191 yards on the ground.  The Packers will need to force rookie QB Dak Prescott to make plays if the Green & Gold want to win this game.  Well that, and have Aaron Rodgers play to the level he has the past 7 weeks.  In the end, the matchup to watch is the Packers’ OL v Dallas’ DL and vice versa.

Overall – I believe the Cowboys will try to take the ball out of Dak’s hands and ground and pound…successfully.  That will allow play action and the conservative Prescott to throw to an open target or run for yardage.  I’m not confident the Packers can generate 1-2 turnovers while holding the rush game enough.

Packers 27
Cowboys 30

*22-13 overall record.  Hopefully that record drops, meaning the Packers would be moving on to the NFC Championship game.*

There’s a chance to prove to many in Packer nation that the curse of Eli coming into Lambeau and defeating the Packers is over.  Let’s take a look as to why…

Review – After re-watching the game, it’s very apparent that not only Aaron Rodgers is playing great football, but the entire offense is on the same page and it’s nearly impossible to stop.  Whether Mike McCarthy was saving Ty Montgomery’s legs for the playoffs or he wanted to get Aaron Ripkowski more touches to get him used to handling the ball, it worked.  Both were fairly effective at producing to the amount asked by their head coach.  Preseason standout, Geronimo Allison (#81), had a breakout game.  Of course he benefitted from a hot/good quarterback, but he was able to gain separation and make the catches when given the opportunities.  He’s a bigger target than Randall Cobb (larger catch radius) and could be an X-factor moving forward.

Aside from the pointless Hail Mary to finish the game, the Packers held the 21^st overall offense to 17 points, in their own house.  I believe that bodes well for the Packers’ D hosting the Giants 25^th overall offense, and benefit from being in the friendly confines of Lambeau Field.

Det’s cornerback, Darius Slay and Def End, Ziggy Ansah were held essentially in check all game.  Rodgers made a Houdini-like play to escape a sack from Ansah on a 3^rd down and was able to convert.  Slay was tasked with covering Jordy Nelson for much of the night, and did fairly well, but still surrendered 6 receptions for 66 yards.

ProFootball Grades:
LG Lane Taylor – 84.1
S Micah Hyde – 83.5
QB Aaron Rodgers – 83.1
FS Morgan Burnett – 81.0
OLB Datone Jones – 80.9
CB Ladarius Gunter – 80.7

Preview – Both the Giants and Packers are far different teams than when they met in their week 5 matchup (won by Green Bay 23-16).  Ladarius Gunter (a player to watch, #36 of Green Bay) held Odell Beckham Jr. (a player to watch on NY) to 5 catches, 56 yards and 1TD.  The key in the game was the Packers’ pass rush, getting to Eli Manning 4 times and holding the Giants to 221 total yards.  Possibly the Packers’ defense’s finest performance of the season.

Getting consistent pressure on Eli and moving him off his spot will determine how effective the Giants’ offense is throughout the game.  Unlike Aaron Rodgers, Eli is not mobile ‘nor is he effective at throwing on the run.  By making him shuffle his feet, the Packers can control the game and force Eli into some turnovers.

Overall—I’ve battled back and forth all week trying to find an advantage the Packers have.  The Giants bring the 10^th overall defense matching up with the Packers 8^th offense.  Usually in the playoffs running the ball and playing good defense wins.  If that holds true, it doesn’t bode well for the Packers.  The Packers have the 8^th rush defense which should shut down the newly found run game of New York with rookie Paul Perkins.  Again, going back to needing a pass rush, mainly from Nick Perry because Clay Matthews is terrible, but has a chance to takeover these playoffs by showing up and producing like he did from 2009-2012.  If Clay and Perry can beat a below-avg Giants offensive line and control the line of scrimmage that should do the trick.

Prediction—all week I’ve been saying that 27 points will be the winning score, and I think that’s true still.  I also thought the Giants would be the team to come out on top…but no longer!!!

Giants 20
Packers 27

*21-13 overall record, and almost called the score last week J*

Since Rodgers’ Run the Table quote, the Packers have rallied off 5 in a row.  They’re halfway home.  For anyone that may say, “Nick, you know he was referring to the final 6 games in the regular season.”  My response is, “What’s the point of making the playoffs if you’re not going to win the Super Bowl?”  If this season doesn’t result in a Super Bowl victory, it will have been another failure and choke — how much more can we take?  I’m beginning to think that Packer fans are quite alright with postseason failure, so as long as they can say that other teams haven’t been in consecutive years like Green Bay.

Review – I was fortunate enough to attend the game, and see this display in person, what ended up being a warm Christmas Eve.  The Packers took the first drive, getting a few first downs, but ultimately resulting in a punt…however, after that it seems like Jacob Schum could’ve hit the showers.  Aaron Rodgers is playing to his expected level and has full control of this offense.  Also, the short-passing game has almost replaced the running game – which could be dangerous for opposing teams as the Packers have shown they can run the ball.  Ultimately, if everything is clicking, this team should be able to post 38-40+ points if need be.  The main concern, as has been since 2010’s title run, is the defense being able to hold up and get a stop late in the 4^th quarter.  That, and Rodgers playing to his level for the entire game, but more on that next week.

Last week I mentioned to keep an eye on Min’s WR Stefon Diggs.  Diggs had 4 catches, for 29 yards and a garbage-time TD.  Adam Thielen on the other hand had a career day, with over 200 yards and 2 TDs.  Again, the main concern is the defense giving up 12 fourth quarter points.  The other two players I mentioned to watch didn’t even play: Adrian Peterson and Randall Cobb.  So that’s easy.

To no one’s surprise, Aaron Rodgers led all players with a PFF grade of 93.1.  He was essentially perfect again, and that’s where he needs to be.  Here are the rest:

Clay Matthews 87.7
Jordy Nelson 86.1
Damarious Randall 80.2

Preview – There’s not much I really need to say…Detroit is well-known and everyone, by now, knows what’s on the line.  The Lions’ story has been told at nausea all year about how they’ve trailed in the 4^th quarter in 8 of their 9 wins.  This could set up to the Packers’ defense actually having to play and play well throughout the entire game and finish.

The last meeting between these two teams, the Packers jumped out to a 31-3 lead and saw Detroit score a quick TD before half, then cut it and finally lose 34-27.  This game could easily sway that way again, but if memory serves me right, Ziggy Ansah (#94, and Detroit’s best defensive player, Defensive End) missed that game.  Also, Detroit’s best cover man, Darius Slay (#23), is expected back this week and will be tasked with covering Jordy Nelson.  In the week 3 meeting, while covering Nelson, Slay allowed 3 grabs on 4 targets and a TD.

Overall— The Lions bring the 23^rd ranked offense and 15^th defense matching up against the Packers’ 10^th ranked O and 20^th D.  The Lions are in a tough spot as they’ve lost their last 2 and likely thought the whole 2^nd half of the season “Please don’t blow this.”  Well…the Lions have a chance to not be the Lions and win this game and potentially kick the Packers out of the postseason.  Either way, if Dallas can hang 42 points on Detroit with essentially nothing to play for, the Packers and Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t have any issue moving the ball and putting it in the end zone.  Many believe he’s the MVP, those “many” are Packer fans, and while he’s played great the last 5 games, where was this all of 2015 and 2016???

Around the League—the game to keep an eye on is the Giants @ Redskins on Fox at 325p.  If the Giants win, then both the Packers and Lions clinch a playoff spot.  That’s about it!  In an unlikely scenario, the Packers could clinch the 3 seed with a Seahawks loss, but win and the Packers will face the Giants next Sunday.

Packers 31
Lions 27

 *20-13 is the record now, hopefully we keep this train rolling.*

Should the Packers somehow win the Super Bowl, it can be argued…

Review – Pretty nerve-wracking of a game, but after consecutive 3 & out drives once the Bears completely seized momentum and eventually tied the game at 27 the Packers – most notably Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson – made a money play in money time to seal the victory.  As stated before, the mission was to get out of Chicago with a W and as healthy as possible.  It seems as though the mission was accomplished.

Chicago: HB Jordan Howard – 17 carries, 90 yards, 1 TD (13 yards was his longest carry).  WR Alshon Jeffrey – 6 receptions, 89 yards, 1 TD (longest play, 27 yards).  Last week I said Green Bay needed to keep Howard under 100 yards (accomplished) and Jeffrey out of the end zone (nope).  Once Jeffrey got going, the Packers almost had no answer except to bench Damarious Randall and take Quinton Rollins off Jeffrey and put bracketed coverage (man and zone along with safeties over the top and linebackers shading inside for protection) and the Bears never completed another pass after the switch, to Jeffrey.

Green Bay: QB Aaron Rodgers – 19/31 (61.3%), 252 yards, 0TD, 0INT, 87.0RAT.  Rodgers had a great game outside of a few throws (most notably the decision to dance in the pocket again, but only on the 2 drives that went 3 & out in the 4^th.  Made up for it by making a great toss to Jordy).  WR/HB Ty Montgomery – 16 carries, 162 yards, 2 TD, 2 receptions, 1 yard.  Monty had his best game of his short career.  Time will tell if he can truly carry the load of an NFL running back, but then again he may not have to.  Just the threat of him in the backfield, coupled with a red hot Rodgers could be enough to keep racking up wins.

Here’s a look at who Pro Football Focus rated as their top performing Packers from Week 15:

-LT Bakhtiari 87.8; SS Clinton-Dix 87.6; QB Rodgers 84.5; C Linsley 83.5; TE Cook 83.3; WR Nelson 82.5; RB Montgomery 80.0.  Others were rated, but if it’s not an 80+ I won’t list them.  However, it’s nice to see Bakhtiari continuously rank amongst the top O linemen.

Preview – Minnesota Vikings, 7-7.  After beginning the season 5-0 have now found themselves in a position of a must-win AND getting help to keep their playoff hopes alive.  The Vikes hold the 31^st (2^nd worst) offense in the NFL, but possess the 3^rd overall defense.  The showcase matchup will be Min’s 3^rd ranked pass D v GB’s 10^th rated pass offense.

Minnesota- WR Stefon Diggs.  Let’s see if the Packers are up to the challenge of not allowing another career day to this young, talented receiver out of Maryland.  That’s it.  He’s the main player to watch.  Adrian Peterson is a shell of himself, as most running backs are after the age of 30.  If you’re a Packer fan, be thankful the Vikings didn’t trade him when his value was its highest…they could’ve gotten a very nice return.  Instead they traded a 1^st and 4^th round pick for Sam Bradford…but I digress.

Green Bay- Randall Cobb.  Yep, another receiver. Cobb I don’t believe was even targeted last week in Chicago, but who’s to say that the Bears didn’t decide to just take him out of the game?

Overall— the key matchup is Min’s pass D v GB’s pass O.  The weather looks to be ideal (34 degrees with some overcast and minimal wind).  Again, winner of the turnover battle will likely win this game, however keeping Vikings pro bowl return man, Cordarrelle Patterson, from breaking big returns will be paramount.  Minnesota isn’t terrible, but it sure seems they’ve forgotten how to win and the Packers are in prime position to take full advantage.

Around the League— with Detroit losing last week to the Giants, Green Bay now controls their own destiny to win the division.  Should Green Bay stumble and lose at home, they will be rooting heavily for the Dallas Cowboys to upend the Lions on Monday Night Football.  However, with the Giants losing to the Eagles on Thursday Night Football, the Cowboys have nothing to play for because they now have clinched the 1 seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.  Meaning they may rest players or remove players from the game since its outcome is meaningless for Dallas.

Vikings 17
Packers 24

 I’m now 19-13 in “predicting” Packer outcomes.  Let’s hope this weird/crazy ride continues with a Christmas Eve W!

Review – Obviously that was an incredible game!  I’m writing this a full 7 days later, so I could allow all emotions to settle to give as good a perspective as possible.  The Packers came out with a bang on the 3^rd play of the game and hit Adams for their longest play of the season (a 66-yard TD pass).  The initial design on the 3^rd and 2 was to hit Randall Cobb on a 3 yard quick slant and Aaron Rodgers decided to extend the play and look for something better, lucky he found #17 and made a brilliant throw.

The major factor in the outcome of the game was the defense and the 6, yep six, takeaways.  Sure Russell Wilson was “off,” however, credit the Packers’ defense for enticing him to make some bad decisions.  It didn’t hurt that Wilson just flat out isn’t an accurate passer.  He missed two easy touchdowns which would’ve swung this game in a much different direction.  Just like defending Cam Newton, keeping Wilson in the pocket and forcing him to make an accurate throw v man coverage is the way to give yourself an opportunity to halt their offense.  They’re a much different team without Marshawn Lynch setting the tone and punching teams in the mouth.

Speaking of tough, it was evident the Packers were the tougher team.  Richard Sherman took a cheap shot on Davante Adams and Adams responded by pushing him back and not backing down.  I believe that set the tone for the entire game, and hopefully the remainder of the season.

There weren’t any specific players I highlighted to watch v Seattle, however moving forward I will 🙂

Here’s the listing from Pro Football Focus on the 10 highest-graded Packers from last week:

DE Mike Daniels 88.8
SS Morgan Burnett 88.3
CB Damarious Randall 87.4
CB Quinten Rollins 87.1
QB Aaron Rodgers 85.8
WR Davante Adams 81.4
DE/OLB Datone Jones 80.2
RT Bryan Bulaga 77.9
RG TJ Lang 74.1
WR Jordy Nelson 72.9

Once again the defensive backfield has vastly improved and again the Packers are a much better team from it!  If Randall and Rollins continue to improve and keep up this play, and the offense holds up their end of the bargain, this team has a chance to actually accomplish something (I think I said that last week).

Preview – After the Packers choked away a chance to tie the all-time series record against Chicago last year, they now have their chance again.  The Chicago Bears boast one of the worst records in the NFL: 3-10.  Based on rankings of total offense and defense (rankings by total yards), the Bears have the 17^th overall offense and 8^th overall defense.  Their strongest piece of all is their pass defense, which is a good matchup v Green Bay’s 10^th rated pass offense (also its best).

Players to Watch (Chi) – RB Jordan Howard (#24). He’s the Bears leading rusher with 969 yards on 194 carries (5.0 yards/carry).  Keeping him under 100 rush yards will be crucial in this cold-weather game.  Another is WR Alshon Jeffrey (#17).  He’s been out the past four games due to suspension from PEDs, but he’s an extremely talented, big bodied, wideout that can make plays and be a thorn in the side of any defense.  It’s paramount to keep him out of the end zone as it’s my guess the Packers will continue to play a lot of man coverage and try to force backup quarterback, Matt Barkley, to make consistent accurate passes in this frigid cold.

Players to Watch (GB)—Aside from the obvious, Aaron Rodgers, I think because his calf and hamstring are limiting  his movement it’s forcing him to make the quick read and keeps the offense in rhythm.  An interesting perspective and player to keep an eye on is running back (now official) Ty Montgomery (#88).  He has sickle cell anemia and it’s effected by high altitudes and cold weather.  If he’s unable to go, the Packers will essentially be down to Christine Michael – you’ll remember he gaffed on a few plays and was benched for it – and Aaron Ripkowski, a fullback.  Both can be effective however, there’s not much depth and neither are as dependable, for multiple reasons, as Monty.

Overall— The weather will likely really affect this game in the sense it’ll be tough to throw and catch the ball on schedule and with the Bears likely focused on running the ball and shortening this game…it could set up for a close, low-scoring affair.  Ultimately the Packers are the better team, with the better coach, and better quarterback.  The only advantage Chicago has is this is their Super Bowl and they’ll be doing everything in their power to win.

Around the League—the main game Packer fans need to keep their eyes on is Detroit @ New York (Giants).  Each team is 9-4 and the Packers need a loss by Detroit prior to week 17 if they want a chance to win the division.  So root for the Giants to up-end Detroit and pull the Packers to within a game of the Lions.

The only other key game in the NFC is Sunday Night Football, where the somewhat surprising 8-5 Buccaneers head to Dallas to take on the 11-2 Cowboys.  In case Detroit beats New York, Green Bay fans should want Dallas to beat Tampa, bringing the Bucs’ record to 8-6, ultimately tying them with the Packers in the wild card standings.

Packers 21
Bears 13

*After last week’s victory, and correct prediction, my record has improved to 18-13*

Review – This was one of the more complete games, again, by the Packers.  There was a time where it was in doubt, when it was tied 7-7, Houston had the ball and was driving on Green Bay’s side of the field late in the 3^rd quarter.  A Hopkins dropped pass keyed a defensive hold and prompted all-world punter, Shane Lechler, to pin the Packers at the 2 yard line.  If the Packers go on to do anything of relevance this year (aka win the Super Bowl), this will be looked at as the Drive of the Year, potentially.  The defense showed up in a defensive-type game – the weather conditions proved to help, but it was very encouraging to see the secondary have their best game.  The two TDs were a bit alarming, but Rollins was pushed off by TE Ryan Griffin, and the other was Micah Hyde reverting to his old/bad self.

The players I said to look out for, didn’t really factor into this one…Lamar Miller (Hou’s HB) actually played, but didn’t make much of a difference.  The other key was to watch Clay Matthews, who still shows to be worthless.  It’s alarming and very worrisome that Julius Peppers is light years more productive than #52.

From my eye, there were quite a few players that stood out, most notably: Jordy Nelson.  He didn’t show speed or great route running, but incredible hands and body control that he can still produce in a tight-end style where he’s a mismatch v smaller corners and speedier than most safeties.  Because its objective and they tie numbers to it…let’s take a look (ranked according from highest grade to lowest).

CB LaDarius Gunter 92.0
WR Jordy Nelson 87.3
DE Mike Daniels 84.6
LG Lane Taylor 84.2
LB Joe Thomas 83.0
CB Quinten Rollins 82.7
FB Aaron Ripkowski 82.3
RT Bryan Bulaga 80.7

There were more listed, but any grad at/above 80.0 is a solid performance.  Anything above 90 is truly an incredible performance, and Gunter was a much-needed sight for sore eyes.  If he can continue to improve, I’m not expecting him to be the next Richard Sherman, to a point where he can be a reliable #2 corner – that would help give this defense the boost they’ve been looking for!  Rookie DL Dean Lowry made a burst with a sack and a solid game as well…again, not expecting him to continue, but any production he gives should be treated as a bonus.

All in all, just a great game where the defense held and offense that a good defense should when at home in those conditions.

Preview –Seattle Seahawks…we’re familiar with them by now, aren’t we?  Seattle comes in with an 8-3-1 record, in 1^st place of the NFC West, and holding the 2^nd seed in NFC playoffs.  They can lock up the NFC West with a Win and an Arizona Loss.  They possess the 15^th overall offense and 8^th overall defense.  As many know, the Seahawks have the best home-field advantage (based on record of recent years)…however, can be had when playing on the road.  The biggest factor I’ve been struggling with is their road record (2-3-1).  They don’t look good away from Seattle, but there’s 1 victory I can’t figure out: week 10 @ New England.  So I dove deeper and compared their road victories versus their road losses.

In Seattle’s wins (2- week 4 at Jets, week 10 at Patriots) they have a +5 turnover ratio.  In their 3 losses they’re -2.  As is the time with 80% of games in the NFL, the team that wins the turnover battle should win the game.  Meanwhile, the Packers are +3 in their six wins and -8 in their six losses.  Again, Green Bay MUST win the turnover battle, not tie it, if they want to come out on top.

Seattle isn’t great running the ball, especially on the road.  They eclipsed the 100 yard mark once on the road, and it was 2 weeks ago at Tampa, 127 yards rushing.  But Tampa showed the blueprint how to slow, and damn near shut down Seattle’s offense.  Keep Russell Wilson in the pocket, play tight man coverage and if you do get pressure, make sure it’s from the middle and your ends keep contain.  Essentially the same defense one would want coming into a game v Aaron Rodgers.  The 2^nd key to the game is generating pressure from within (Mike Daniels) and keeping contain (Julius Peppers and Jayrone Elliott).  It’s a HUGE, an absolute HUGE loss that Nick Perry will miss with broken fingers.  He’s had a great season v the run and a solid season pass-rushing.  Considering Seattle’s weakest spot on their team is the Offensive Line, where the Seahawks are 20^th in rush offense and their leading rusher is currently wearing #32 on the Packers…Christine Michael (10 rushes, 23 yards with GB).  I think the key matchup will be the Seahawks’ pass defense (9^th in the NFL) against the Packers’ 10^th rated pass offense.  I’ve been critical of Aaron Rodgers, and the entire fan base should be as well…he’s been his old self, which is what he should be doing weekly.  Rodgers has been completing passes at a 72.5% clip, avg. 261 yards, and 2TDs in the past 2 wins, with no turnovers.  That’s key b/c the Packers’ offense lives through #12 and is aided by, arguably, the 2^nd best offensive line in the NFL (behind Dallas).  The Packers have 3 offensive linemen rated in the top 25 of the NFL, the only other team that can say that are the Oakland Raiders.  Those Packers are LT David Bakhtiari (88.8), RT Bryan Bulaga (85.9), and RG TJ Lang (83.3): 6^th; 19^th; 22^nd respectively.

Around the League – the only game that really matters to Green Bay is at Noon at Ford Field: 3-9 Chicago at 8-4 Detroit.  The Packers need Detroit to lose at least 1 more game before their week 17 matchup.  The Lions are favored by 8, so for Chicago to go into Detroit and get a W is a bit far-fetched.  Either way, it’s a game for Packer fans to watch before the 325p kick.

Other great matchups around the league are Dallas (-3) at New York.  If Dallas wins, they clinch the NFC East and a BYE in the playoffs.  Other than that, Monday night is Baltimore at New England (-7), where the Ravens have given the Patriots fits over the past few seasons.

Overall— if you’re still with me, after all that “analysis,” here are things I watch for and how I think it’ll go down.  On Kickoffs, if it’s not a touchback I hope the Packers return it past the 25 (touchback) and that it’s Ty Montgomery or Trevor Davis as the return man.  If the other way, I hope for a touchback or a tackle prior to the 20.

Hold on to the ball.  Any possession that ends in a kick, for the Packers, should be considered moral victory.  I’m not condoning 3 & outs, but punts, field goals, and extra points will be essential to winning this game…along with taking the ball away from Seattle.

Seattle is average, at best, on the road.  They’re missing their vocal defensive leader, Earl Thomas, and in order to generate pressure, they’ll need to bring linebackers which should open up the middle of the field for Jared Cook, Davonte Adams, and Randall Cobb.  Hopefully Green Bay can run enough to utilize play action and keep Seattle off balance.  Russell Wilson, over the last 2 matchups v Green Bay, has been downright bad.  Combining for 33 of 59 passing (55.9%), 405 yards, 3TD and 5INT.  Look for GB’s defense to key on Baldwin (#89) and Graham (#88) and holding them under 120 yards combined.

Seahawks 20
Packers 23

 *Record is 17-13*

Review: Packer fans should feel as confident as possible after playing their most complete game in years.  It had been some time since the Offense, Defense, and Special Teams all played an A-game.  Aaron Rodgers looked crisp in getting the ball out on time.  Receivers looked to be open quick enough for a 3-step drop (they have been for a few weeks now), and the defense held Philadelphia under 300 yards of total offense.  Cris Collinsworth made a big deal about Green Bay’s kickoff coverage, and the Packers responded with great tackling and coverage on well-placed kicks.  Overall, it’s a pretty easy recap – the Packers did everything well.  Now let’s see if they can keep it rolling against, what Mike McCarthy likes to call, an uncommon opponent.

Preview: The Houston Texans come in to Lambeau with a 6-5 record, losing their last 2 games.  The Texans seem to be similar to the Packers in which they’ve beaten bad teams and have lost to good ones.  Aside from the Packers’ week 4 victory of the New York Giants, that’s how the Packers typically roll.  The Texans’ QB, Brock Osweiler, is a huge man (6’8” 235lbs) and is pretty athletic for a guy his size, has no issue seeing over his offensive line.  However, even with good weapons in DeAndre Hopkins (#10) and Will Fuller V (#15), he’s been off all season – 59.5%, 12TD, 13INT, and a 72.2RAT – although he’s missing a couple of targets: CJ Fiedorowicz TE; Jalen Strong WR; Lamar Miller HB.  Based on what the Packers showed at Philly last Monday night and how the Texans are struggling as of late, it makes sense to think the Packers have the upper-hand (Packers are favored by 6.5) heading into this match.

It’ll be interesting to see if Clay Matthews can play, and actually be effective instead of being a non-factor like he’s been for quite some time.  Also, keep an eye on rookie Defensive lineman, Kenny Clark, who’s had a fairly productive season up to this point.  Now’s about the time rookies his the proverbial Wall, but there’s a chance #97 could be productive with him not being asked to play each and every play.  Damarious Randall’s (#23) return sparked a bit of improvement in the defensive backfield.  Throughout the year, even though he’s been beat a few times, he’s always been in the hip pocket of the receiver he’s covering.  Look for the Packers’ now 1^st corner to cover the Texans’ #1 threat, DeAndre Hopkins.

With the Vikings losing to Dallas on Thursday night, they now sit at 6-6 and should Green Bay beat Houston that would pull them to a 6-6 record as well (Green Bay would still be behind Minnesota for losing their head-to-head matchup in week 2).  If you’re convinced the Packers can Get In and Get Hot and get all the way to Houston for Super Bowl LI, then you best be rooting for the Saints to beat Detroit.  How I see it shaking out, come Monday, December 5^th, the Packers will be one game behind Detroit – ultimately controlling their divisional destiny.  Meaning, should Detroit lose to New Orleans and Green Bay beat Houston, then with Green Bay still playing all three divisional opponents and if IF the Packers win out they’d, at worst, have the same record as Detroit (but hold the head-to-head tiebreaker 2-0) and Minnesota would have, at best, a 9-7 record while Green Bay would be 10-6.  But let’s not get too far ahead…I’m glad I was wrong last week, however if the Packers don’t finish the season hoisting the Lombardi trophy I fear making the postseason as the brain trust may believe injuries were the major factor in failure v the play of the players, quality of the coaching, or quality of the roster.

Pick: record now is 16-13.

Texans 24
Packers 30

Hope you all enjoyed Thanksgiving!  I watched all 3 NFL games yesterday, and it’s very apparent to me that 5 of the 6 teams playing are in better shape than Green Bay, as far as winning games now.  Let’s recap what happened and how it sets up for the remainder of the season.  There are 2 questions to be asked, and depending on what kind of fan you are, I’ll cover them both:

1. Would you like the Packers to make the playoffs? If so, I hope you truly believe they’ll win the Super Bowl (if you read my blog heading into week 1 you’ll notice I didn’t think GB could even at full health), otherwise what’s the point?  Let’s assume Green Bay “runs the table,” for sake of argument.

-Packers finish 10-6
-Detroit would automatically lose one more (week 17 to GB), giving them 5 losses
-Green Bay would need Detroit to lose at least once more in addition to week 17
-Detroit’s remaining schedule:
-@ Saints
-v Bears
-@ Giants
-@ Cowboys
-v Packers
-Very easily could have an additional loss on the schedule, maybe they only win 1 more game (v Bears)
-Vikings are also ahead of the Packers, however they’d assume another loss in week 16 (xmas eve) @ Green Bay and would finish 10-6, as would GB, but would lose out on division record to Green Bay and heads-up record v Detroit
-Overall, the Packers’ best chance at the playoffs is to win the division – meaning 1. Winning out and 2. Needing another loss by Detroit

2. Would you like the Packers to lose out because a. They aren’t winning the Super Bowl this year anyway and/or b. you want change? This is where I’m at.  Of course I’ll root for the Packers during the game to win, it’s impossible not to, but in the grand scheme of things you shouldn’t be upset over a loss at this point.  Hell, the fact anyone outside of the locker room thought this team was capable of winning a Super Bowl this year heading into the season needs to take off the Green & Gold sunglasses and face reality.

*So to recap, if you want the Packers to make the playoffs you need to root for at least another loss by Detroit in addition to Green Bay finishing 6-0.

I also want to clear something else up…to blame Ted Thompson is perfectly fine, he should deserve the credit for winning and blame for losing.  However, blame him for not drafting well, but don’t blame him for not signing free agents to help this team.  The reason there’s no chance this team was going to win the Super Bowl isn’t because the Packers didn’t pick up Brandon Browner or Antonio Cromartie to help the defensive backfield.  Would they help win a game or two?  Sure.  However, there’s a reason they’re unemployed PLUS a huge factor is they’d be taking snaps and valuable playing time from the younger guys.

You may be saying, But Nick, the young guys suck!  Yes, but I’d rather lose by giving kids playing time than not winning by blocking their development.

Thanks for reading!

P.S. I’m not a die-hard Badger fan, but I’ll root for them as college football is improving and if they can sneak into the college football playoff that’d be incredible for the university and the state of Wisconsin.

(Sorry for the all bold/formatting, working through it). Earlier this week I found myself involved in deep conversation regarding the Packers’ issues, or perceived issues.  Some people are already looking ahead to the 2017 NFL Draft, I always like to keep up to date with mock drafts regardless of where the Packers are in the standings.  Let’s tackle this from a few different angles…

Issues—
a.       Offensive Line: a few people (Gilbert Brown most notably) have complained about the Offensive Line being a major issue.  Entering week 11 (the Redskins game) the Packers O Line ranked 1^st in pass blocking and 17^th in run blocking, per Pro Football Focus.  The Packers have only had a 100 yard rusher once this season (week 3 v Detroit), and much of that is to losing Lacy and Starks and supplementing the rush game with quick passes and having Wideouts line up in the backfield catching check-downs.  Eddie Lacy does have value with his vision, however he can’t keep his weight at or below 235lbs and the Packers must move on.  It’s essential to have a solid running back (see Lacy’s first 2 seasons of 2013 and 2014) which helps the offensive line’s run blocking.  I’d love to see the Packers bring in a true runner in this draft.  Possibly even draft two.  Overall, as of now, I don’t think the Packers’ offensive line is an issue – I actually believe it’s the strength of this team.  Can it be improved?  Absolutely, but an OL of LT Bakhtiari, LG Taylor, C Linsley/Tretter, RG Lang, RT Bulaga is a solid place.  Don’t be surprised if TJ Lang isn’t extended and JC Tretter is groomed for the RG spot for 2017.  Based on his play since 2015, it seems he’ll be fine.

b.      Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers is ranked 14^th by Pro Football Focus, which by his standards is terrible.  Sure he’s average across the league, but the Packers aren’t paying him to be average.  He’s paid to play at an MVP-level, he hasn’t been there since the 2^nd half of the divisional playoff game v Dallas in January of 2015.  There are two major issues I have with the QB – but first let me state I was all aboard the Rodgers train and ridding this franchise of Favre the instant Brett threw, quite possibly the worst, interception in the history of football –         

1.       The reason his stats and “ranking” has dipped from top 3 to 14 is not for injury or physical ability.  He’s holding the ball, which used to be OK because he’d eventually find and hit an open receiver, but now he’s foregoing throwing to open receivers to find bigger plays.  Or even worse, he’s not throwing to receivers whom are wide open downfield (see link: https://twitter.com/aaronnagler/status/801103501526974464) this is just one instance, but has happened far too often and is now the norm v the rare.               

2.       No one but Aaron can say for certain, but this whole personal issue of him not talking with his family, or dating Olivia Munn directly effecting his play…it could absolutely change his mind set or preparation, make him cocky, etc.  However, the way I see it, and when I screamed for Rodgers to take the reins from Favre, my major concern was “Don’t give Rodgers the keys to the franchise like Sherman did to Brett…he could mess it up worse than Favre did, he’s smarter.”  Mike Florio wrote an article (believe what you want, but if you’re a blind Packer Backer I thank you for reading and trying to open your eyes) stating there’s a feud between the QB and McCarthy and if Mac is fired Aaron will have “won” and why would he listen to the new coach?  I hope I’m wrong because I don’t believe Green Bay will part ways with their beloved Quarterback any time soon, but I do believe in order to win a Super Bowl he needs to go. 

c.      Head Coach: I’m not sure if Mike McCarthy has lost the team or if his message is stale, but for someone who’s defended him more than most, his “reasons” for failure are getting stale for me.  If Aaron does have the keys to the castle, that’s on Mac…if his message is stale, it’s time to move on – Sure it’s tough to win in this league when at full strength and that much tougher to do it when you’re missing 5 starters, and top of the line starters for the most part.  I’m open for a new head coach, and at this point it almost doesn’t matter who it is. 

d.     General Manager: Pete Dougherty wrote an article this week taking a look at Thompson’s drafts (http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/dougherty/2016/11/23/dougherty- packers-drafts-missing-mark/94285504/) – to paraphrase the first 6 drafts (2005-2010) produced plenty of good players, whereas the last 6 (2011-2016) have left a lot to be desired.  If you know me, you understand I believe the draft and develop is the best method to produce a consistent winner, but to win championships and build a dynasty (that’s the goal remember?) you must draft well, consistently in addition to having a coach on the same page that is also a good coach. 

All in all, I believe Dom Capers’ time may have run out of Green Bay (about 4 years too late) and there may be an improvement from his departure, but there’s a little part of me that worries the Packers won’t handle this properly in order to build for a legit title contender and put themselves in position to consistently make the playoffs and needing pure luck to win a Super Bowl.  I guess time will tell, but let’s move on to Philly, shall we? 

The Eagles come in losers in 3 of their last 4 and are trying to keep pace with the surprising NFC East.  Philadelphia showcases a rookie QB in Carson Wentz (6’5” 237lbs) from North Dakota St., he began his career about as well as one can by posting 100+ QB rating in 3 of his first four games, leading the Eagles to a 3-0 start.  Since, his numbers have resembled the look of Aaron Rodgers’ (yeah, that’s a direct shot at the egomaniac QB that must play better) and the team’s performance is a direct correlation by going 2-5 since.  This is as close to a must-win (without actually being one) for both teams as it can get.  As far as the Packers are concerned, the winner of the Thanksgiving showdown between Minnesota and Detroit will hold a 7-4 record and if it’s Detroit they’ll have essentially a 1.5 game lead over Min by holding the tiebreaker (having beaten Minnesota earlier this season).  If Dallas bests Washington, also on Turkey Day, the Cowboys will all but clinch the NFC East and could coast to the 1 seed in the playoffs.  If you’re the Eagles you’re rooting for the Redskins to up-end Dallas and ruin Thanksgiving, and if you’re the Packers (and want to get to the playoffs) you should pull for Minnesota to beat the Lions. 

In the end, I ultimately think the best thing for the Packers (long term) is to lose out and get a high draft pick to either take a game-changer (running back Dalvin Cook from Florida St) or trade it back and acquire another 1^st and 2^nd round pick from it.  This team is in dire need of above average NFL starters and the best way to get them are either drafting well (ideal) or signing solid role players in free agency (please no). 

Prediction time…if you’re still with me, I thank you for following along from all the bouncing around.  I can’t see anything changing.  The Packers’ secondary is a joke, with 4 players giving up a perfect QB rating to Kirk Cousins last week (158.3), which is something I can do, seriously.  Also, the return of Glass Matthews was quite frustrating knowing this guy will make $17,350,000 next year (he must be traded or cut).  I think the Packers score a few points, maybe keep the game close like last week, but some points may be in garbage time too – this is comical to watch, so have some fun with it knowing the Super Bowl was never an option for this team this year and the proof is now showing. 

Packers 27
Eagles 41 (crying from laughing emoji inserted here)

*Overall Record: 16-12*