Associating Blame???

This could be a longer one, but in addition to the normal Review/Preview/Prediction, it’s time to dig deep into the (potentially) real issues concerning this Green Bay Packers team.  If you pay attention to local, or even national, media, it seems as if everyone is giving their 2 cents.  Obviously no one is 100% sure, not even the actual people involved.  However, let’s take a look at each potential issue…maybe it’ll spark an intelligent conversation?

General Manager –
Ted Thompson has been at the helm since January 2005.  He’s brought a system and philosophy of building through the draft, to which yours truly thoroughly believes is the best program to build a team (in any professional sport).  Obviously to be successful with that one must draft well – Thompson began with a BANG by hitting home runs on his first 2 selections (Aaron Rodgers (1st round, 24th pick) and Nick Collins (2nd round, 19th pick).  Without going into much detail, had Collins stayed healthy could’ve been, at minimum, a Green Bay Packers HOFer.  Moving ahead, he’s essentially drafted at about a 50% clip, which when acquiring draft picks as often as possible (through not resigning players and receiving compensatory picks in return) and trading back in previous drafts to hoard mid-late round picks, means you’ll turn over your roster every 4-6 years and if you’re hitting on those picks, your team should always be young and talented.

In the last two seasons (2015 and 2016), much has been made about WRs not getting open, or players just not being good enough to make plays.  In the Divisional playoff game at Arizona, many thought the Packers would get boatraced (I certainly did), yet the defense somehow found a way to hold Arizona (the #1 offense in the NFL last year), at home, to 17 points with 2:34 left in the game while the offense had the ball.  When looking at playoff matchups and how to win, 20 points certainly seems to be the key number.  If you can hold your opponent to 20 or less you should win that particular game.  However, the mis-execution (insert whatever word you’d like) of the offense led Arizona to a FG after going 4 and out to push the lead to 20-13 with 2 min left.  We all remember the hail maryS (capital S is intentional because Rodgers to Janis, TWICE) and I’ll argue Janis made one of the best catches I’ve ever seen on the second hail mary – outjumping arguably the bester cornerback in football – so there was talent on the team to get the job done last year, or at least enough to compete with what many believed was the most complete team in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals.

With this season being a really weird one so far, I don’t believe lack of talent as the major issue even with the injuries.  If anything, this season should be used as a learning lesson for all the playing time the 1st and 2nd year players are getting (Ladarius Gunter, Kentrell Brice, Blake Martinez, Jake Ryan (until injury last Sunday), Kenny Clark, Kyler Fackrell, Trevor Davis, Geronimo Allison, etc.) which takes 2-3 years for them to really become legit starters in the NFL.  It should make this team much stronger and better in the years to come, but let’s not worry about the future, this is about right now.  The offensive line is arguably top 2 in the league, the WRs have been open on a more consistent basis since the Chicago game (Thu, Oct 20), however the biggest issue and most obvious has been since the injuries to Eddie Lacy and James Starks there has been no real answer for running back.  Ty Montgomery has shown capabilities, but then again he’s learning on the fly and can’t be expected to produce on a consistent basis during this stretch – maybe next year he’s an awesome option.  All in all, I don’t believe Ted Thompson is at a major fault (some sure) for this team’s failure in 2016…otherwise Las Vegas wouldn’t keep putting them as a top 5 contender to win the Super Bowl (unless Vegas knows people will continuously bet the Packers if put high odds??? That’s counter-intuitive, or is it??)

Head Coach –
Mike McCarthy has, publically, taken most of the heat and has for some time.  It’s well-deserved as his offense was figured out week 7 last year at Denver and took an entire calendar year to make corrections in effectiveness.  The last two weeks should be the real concern, with the team lacking energy throughout the entire game v Indianapolis and it almost seeming like no one cared playing the Titans.  The coach is single-handedly responsible for getting his team in the right mindset to play and win – something this team hasn’t done since hosting the awful Chicago Bears on a Thursday night showdown in Lambeau.  Is the message stale?  It could be, however with the roster consistently turning over every 4-6 years (remember that?) the message shouldn’t get stale any more than changing head coaches every 5 years except to those players that have been here longer (i.e. Rodgers, Nelson, Lang, Matthews, Burnett, and Shields).  McCarthy may be a bigger part of the issue, with his message potentially being old, his scheme being figured out, and his team not showing up to play and pound two inferior opponents (Ind/Ten).  Aside from the 2010 postseason run (and yes, I know you can’t just take it out, but let’s) a Green Bay-led McCarthy team hasn’t won two games in the playoffs.  Think about that…literally 1 and done every single season other than the Magic Carpet Ride as some local sports media like to label it.  There’s an argument to be made that he’s put his team in position to win versus superior opponents (2014 Seattle and 2015 Arizona) yet if those teams were superior that then falls on Ted…

Quarterback –
Aaron Rodgers, the third and final piece of this 3-headed monster that’s wreaking havoc inside 1265 Lombardi Ave.  People keep pointing to the Denver game last year when the Packers (6-0) met the Broncos (6-0), and were held to 77 yards passing, as the turning point to Rodgers’ struggles.  However, Pro Football Focus (number nerds) have pegged Rodgers for not having great games dating back to the Dallas playoff game How’s that not a Catch? – Dez Bryant since his last good performance.  I’m no coach, however I’m even able to see that he’s consistently not stepping into throws, choosing not to throw to open receivers, acting as if nothing’s his fault, so on and so forth.  There’s been much written recently about potential “rifts” between Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy…the most interesting, let’s say, was an article from Pro Football Talk’s, Mike Florio, stating his opinion (paraphrasing): By Rodgers claiming one could feel the lack of juice on the entire sideline (during the Colts game), that was a direct shot at Head Coach Mike McCarthy; a potential issue arises that if McCarthy is fired at season’s end the QB will have gotten his way and why would he listen to anyone knew???  It definitely begs the question Instead of firing the Head Coach, should the Packers fire the star player?  Everyone says “you don’t fire the players you fire the coach.”  Well in the NFL, can you name the Quarterbacks to have won a Super Bowl after being with a team for 10+ seasons?  I have the answer…next week 🙂 I’ll also provide my answer to “Whom is most at fault for this mess?” as well.

Now, onto the rematch of the Wild Card round against the Washington Redskins.  The Redskins post the 4th rated offense in the NFL which doesn’t bode well based on the fact the Packers’ defense has been torched by Tennessee (6th) and Indianapolis (13th) in the previous weeks.  The Packers rating is a bit misleading as teams have put up points early in the game and just hold the ball to run the clock and play a zone defense while Green Bay possesses the ball to burn clock as well.  Either way if you’re a fan of the Packers and still think they have a chance at winning a Super Bowl this season (I’ll remind you, based on what we’ve seen since the start of last year they don’t) this is as much of a must-win game as you can have without it actually being an elimination game.  Washington’s defense is 21st in the league, so this could be a matchup for the Packers offense to get back on track and show something similar to their matchup in Atlanta.  It’s also interesting that Ted went out and picked up another potential option at Running Back, Christine Michael.  Yes I spelled his first name correctly…I believe it’s pronounced Kristen.  He’s a phenomenal athlete as in the top performer in 5 categories at the NFL combine in 2013 amongst all running backs.  The knock on him, and why he’s been cut 3-4 times is he’s not the smartest human – most notably he signaled a first down after hesitating and not getting it.  Another instance was waving off Marshawn Lynch coming onto the field as if he’s saying “I got this!”  If that type of behavior continues his time donning the green and gold will be short, just like Knile Davis.

Overall, the Packers have more talent than the Redskins but it’s obvious to many they have not been playing on the same page for quite some time.  I’m at the point with my favorite team that until they show they can win a football game, it’d be irresponsible to pick them.

Packers 24
Redskins 34

*Sadly the record is now 15-12 as I picked correctly against my beloved Packers.  Almost time to begin rooting for losses so that major change occurs. ***

Getting Close to Placing Blame…

Unlike most, maybe all, Packer fans I’m not disgusted or disgruntled after this performance.  Why?  Although picking Green Bay to win, I’m not shocked this team lost to arguably a bottom 5 team in the NFL, at home, in perfect conditions.  Following the game, Indianapolis now possesses the 13th ranked offense and the 29th ranked defense.  There were countless times where Packer receivers were open for quick, easy 5-10 yard gains and Rodgers either didn’t see them or chose to find someone else further downfield.  Either way, when will most fans come to the realization he’s at fault for this?  The offense has changed a bit over the last 4-5 games in design to get pass-catchers open quickly to offset the lack of rushing attack, and yet it’s only come to fruition for a half here or a half there (Chicago and Atlanta)…The question is now, aside from being a blind fan of the team, why should anyone expect a turnaround and this team to string along multiple quarters let alone games in order to become a championship-caliber team?  The answer: No one should expect it.  Demand it, but you’re setting yourself up for pointless heartbreak if you think this team will magically become great.  Even in 2010, this team didn’t look like it was stuck in neutral on both sides of the ball.

Moving on to Tennessee, another un-common opponent.  The Titans are the 8th ranked offense, overall and have the 16th rated defense.  Meanwhile the Packers are rated 16th and 7th on offense and defense, respectively.  I’m not sure how this matchup really works out.  The Titans pose a tough rushing attack with Demarco Murray and last year’s Heisman winner, Derrick Henry.  They’ve combined for 1,028 yards rushing already through nine (9) games – averaging 114 yards/game rushing.  Combine that with their versatile/rushing QB Marcus Mariota (keep in mind that Colin Kaepernick should have Dom Capers on retainer) and they’re the 3rd best rushing offense in football.  It should be a good matchup between their rushing attack and the Packers’ best rush defense.

All in all, Rodgers might be beyond repair (hopefully I won’t have to write about this in the offseason), the Packers’ defense is being rebuilt in front of our eyes (5+ starters on their first contract) – I wouldn’t say this season is lost ONLY due to it being a potential re-tooling.  However, I may have said this before, but unless this team actually wins the Super Bowl there’s absolutely no reason, aside from blind fandom, to believe this organization is capable of winning a title this season based on what you’ve seen.

Packers 27
Titans 30

*14-12 after my dumba$$ picked the Packers…I won’t until they give me a reason.*
GO PACK GO!!!

Almost half-way…

While the Packers held Julio Jones to 3 catches for 29 yards, Matt Ryan was still able to have a very efficient game with almost no pass rush disrupting him.  Had one told me the Packers’ defense would hold Atlanta to sub-300 yards passing and under 100 yards rushing, while Green Bay didn’t have a single turnover, I would’ve thought it would be a victory.  Sadly it wasn’t…let’s take a brief look as to why.

Recap – it seems that the biggest reason to the Packers’ most recent loss can be attributed to the lack of pass rush.  I could take a deeper dive into QB pressures, hurries, etc. – however let’s just look at sacks.  It seemed that there was little pass rush outside of the 2 sacks recorded (averaged 3.5 sacks/contest the first four games, and under 2 sacks/game the last three) as Matt Ryan completed 28 of 35 for 288 yards and 3 TDs.  Dom Capers elected to play coverage v Atlanta the entire game-winning drive which proves to me that unless the Packers can generate a consistent pass rush with 4, maybe 5, rushers it’ll be a tough time holding good offenses under 30 points.

The defensive backs seemed to do OK, just couldn’t make a play on the final drive…while injuries are no excuse and It’s realistic to expect that the dbacks could be roughed up for the rest of the season, the optimist in me hopes these kids (Gunter #36 mainly) grows up fast and can turn into a really good player.

The greater concern for Packer fans should arise from Clay Matthews missing yet another game and not being available to at least provide depth to what we now know is the major key to the defense: pass rush.  There’s an argument to be made for Green Bay to not keep him on the roster next year with his salary cap hitting $17,350,000 next year…for a player that’s not nearly as productive as Nick Perry this season and being on the wrong side of 30 doesn’t have the upside of Kyler Fackrell, for example.

To be clear, I’m not advocating to cut Clay Matthews, but don’t be shocked OR mad if it happens in camp next year if this lack of production continues.

Preview – the Colts are one of the more odd teams in the NFL.  They seem to be the poor man’s version of the Green Bay Packers.  Indianapolis has one of the premier players in the NFL, Andrew Luck, but he’s not as productive/efficient as he receives credit.  Luck has 16 passing TDs while throwing 5 interceptions with 4 fumbles.  Those are very similar numbers to his counterpart, Aaron Rodgers (17 TDs, 4 INTs, 6 fumbles), and as usual it’ll likely come down to the play of the QB in this one, just like last week.  The Colts have an over-the-hill running back in Frank Gore, an awful offensive line, and decent talent at receiver led by TY Hilton.  Hilton is a speed receiver that ran a 4.34 forty-yard dash at the combine and can pose a deep threat.  I believe the absolute key to this game is to generate a consistent pass rush and get in Luck’s face.  He’s prone to turning the ball over with his immense strength and athletic ability to keep plays alive, it should be used against him by forcing him to make throws under duress.

The Packers offense gets Ty Montgomery back this week, and there’s no reason to think that he shouldn’t be a major difference-maker in this one.  He’s turning into a matchup issue for opposing defenses and until we see someone stop him, expect him to be the extension of the running game (short passes out of the backfield, draws, and screens).  The offensive line played OK v Atlanta, but missed a few assignments on crucial plays in the 2nd half.  Starting center JC Tretter will miss this game, but Green Bay returns Corey Linsley, who is a better run blocker than Tretter and, I believe, just as good if not better than Tretter overall at the center position.

Look for some points to be scored this week, for what it’s worth the over/under is 55 and Green Bay is favored by 8….seems about right.  This is a below average Colts team that’s desperate for a win, but there’s a reason they’re desperate for a win – they’re not good.  The Packers should win this game, and if playing to their capabilities could roll easily.

Colts 27
Packers 34

*Unfortunately I picked a LOSS correctly last week…record is now 14-11.*

Test #3???

The Atlanta Falcons sure looked like they’d be the next test for the Green Bay Packers in what was supposed to be the easiest schedule in the NFL entering the 2016 season.  With Atlanta getting jobbed on a no-call of Pass Interference by Richard Sherman on Julio Jones in the waning seconds of a 26-24 loss in Seattle AND what can only be described as a choke v San Diego, the Falcons’ record (4-3) could easily be 6-1 and a major matchup.  However, with consecutive losses, with the latest coming against an average San Diego team, the Packers have a better shot at heading into the Georgia dome and contending with the high-powered Falcons offense.

Again, I don’t believe this Packers team is great, or can be great with the current makeup of the GM, Head Coach, and QB combination, but that doesn’t mean it’s OK for them to continue looking like they’re stuck in neutral on offense.  The Falcons defense isn’t loaded with great talent, but possess a great defensive-minded head coach in Dan Quinn (formerly Seattle’s defensive coordinator) and will likely approach the stale McCarthy-led offense in the same manner the Cowboys and Giants did, as was laid out by the Broncos last year – show up in a 4-3 defense (4 defensive linemen, 3 linebackers), play man coverage and only rush 3 to 4 defenders.  The idea is to keep Rodgers in the pocket and not have him make a quick decision…it’s a recipe for success, sadly.  It’ll be interesting to see if Green Bay continues to use Ty Montgomery in the same fashion they did last Thursday night v Chicago.

POTENTIAL NIGHTMARE – If you have Julio Jones on your fantasy team, expect a lot of points.  Julio Jones, with megatron retired, is the most-gifted and physically built WR in the NFL.  He’s a 6’3” 220lb matchup problem that ran a 4.39 forty-yard dash at the combine (and doesn’t seem to have slowed any since).  With the Packers’ top 3 cornerbacks possibly out, the pass rush for Green Bay must get home, and get home fast if they have any visions of slowing down Julio (who earlier this year had a 300-yard game).

The major issue is this Packers offense, if it hasn’t been talked about enough already, and seems to need gimmicks and every play in the book just to get 1-2 drives to move the ball…all in all I’m not too optimistic with this matchup.  Hopefully Aaron can duplicate his production from the playoff game in Jan 2011 and light up the scoreboard in Atlanta, but I won’t hold my breath.

Packers 23
Falcons 31

*13-11, with obvious hopes of going 13-12 after this game :)*

2 Tests, 2 Fs…

Recap – no way around it, the Packers got their asses kicked Sunday.  In every facet.  Further proving this offense is all screwed up and I believe there’s plenty of blame to pass.  However, in the interest of time (as it’s 6:56p CST and I need this posted before 7:26p CST) we can cover who’s to blame and why sometime next week.

Preview—the Bears are arguably the worst team in the NFL, but based on how the Packers have been playing and they’re missing their top 3 cornerbacks could prove to be an issue v a Chicago-led passing attack of Brian Hoyer.  With the Packers wearing ALL WHITE (would be absolutely awesome if the NFL allowed Green Bay to wear a white helmet), the Packers need to run the ball well with newly-acquired Knile Davis and practice squad-caliber Don Jackson.  If all were perfect, a lot of under center with fullback formations could do wonders if Green Bay is able to run the ball effectively (see 1st half v Detroit) and it opens up the entire field for any type of play.  I don’t see Rodgers’ accuracy returning unless he somehow fixed his footwork/mechanics in 1 practice since Sunday ‘nor do I see the offense switching completely in that same amount of time.

However, the Bears are awful and just based on pure talent alone, the Packers should win in spite of offensive scheme, horrendous QB play, and 4th and 5th corners starting.  Albeit short, I promise to elaborate next week in what’s hopefully a recap of a win.

Bears 20
Packers 23

*Overall record is 12-11 (god last week should be an eye-opener, again I’ll explain next week).*

2nd True Test

The Packers came out with another strong defensive performance against a struggling frustrated Giants offense.  While the run defense was again nothing short of great, the pass defense benefited from multiple ugly throws by Eli Manning.  There were 2 in particular Manning missed which likely would’ve resulted in 10-14 point swings.  However, give credit to the defense for getting consistent pressure on Manning and forcing some bad throws while keeping him uncomfortable all night.

Now…if you’ve listened to any of the local sports radio, or even some national radio outlets the Packers’ offense has struggled all season – outside of the 1st half v Detroit.  Green Bay also has failed to score a touchdown in the 2nd half of any game this season, which should be more than alarming.  This has been going on since the NFC title game at Seattle in January 2015.  The greatest drive I can remember in the past few season occurred to open the game this past week against New York – 16 play, 75 yard, 8 minute 42 second drive that ended in a touchdown.  The Packers were NOT in a no-huddle, went under center often (I didn’t count this time, sorry) and used play action…hell, it resembled a true west coast offense.  Eddie Lacy displayed his great vision, yet again, rushing 11 times for 81 yards (7.4 yds/carry).  Now just imagine if he weighed 30lbs less like he did at the NFL combine…something incredible, ehh?  Jordy Nelson had a couple of nice catches but were outnumbered by the horrific, and almost catastrophic, drops.

Let’s take a look at the next opponent, the Dallas Cowboys.  They come in boasting the #1 rush offense which is the best test Green Bay’s #1 rush defense could ask for.  Expect Dallas to pound the ball with #21 (Ezekiel Elliott), the former Ohio St. star has rushed for >130 yards in each of his last 3 games.  Dallas has a nice backup in Alfred Morris (formerly with the Redskins) who has 30 carries for 128 yards and 2 TDs.  The Cowboys are considered to have the best offensive line in the NFL as well, which is a major reason why rookie quarterback Dak Prescott (#4) is having such an incredible start to his career.

The match-ups: Dallas has the #2 overall offense (1 rush/21 pass) going against Green Bay’s 9th rated defense (1 rush/24 pass).  If the Packers can keep Dallas under 100 yards rushing that should be the key indicator to how this game will shake out.  Green Bay’s secondary has given up some big plays but the pass rush should create enough havoc – barring they stop the run to not become susceptible to play action – to limit Dallas’ passing attack.  While being different teams, last year’s rain-soaked matchup (if memory serves me right) the Packers struggled to contain the rush giving up 171 yards on 20 carries.  The Packers benefited from Dallas trotting out Matt Cassel at quarterback…Dak has already proven he’s effective enough to take Romo’s job.

It’s a tough matchup, and with how #12’s awful play the last 22 games, I wouldn’t be shocked should Green Bay lose this game (or any game for that matter), but I don’t think Dallas has enough on defense to shut down Lacy or get enough pressure on Rodgers to keep Green Bay under 24 points.

Cowboys 16
Packers 24

*After the victory, the record now stands at 12-10. *

Here comes Eli…

Review – the bye week has come and gone, and somehow Damarious Randall injured his groin and is QUESTIONABLE for Sunday night.  The good news is Clay Matthews and Morgan Burnett are returning and hopefully that’ll help the communication in the defensive backfield and apply more pressure up front.  The Giants were out-manned by the Vikings last Monday night and the lead story stemming from that game is New York’s star wide out, Odell Beckham Jr.  I’m sure you’ve seen his sideline antics over the last few weeks and even dating back to last  year’s matchup v (then Carolina CB) Josh Norman.  Regardless of his spoiled bratness, #13 can play and wreak havoc on Green Bay’s secondary.

Preview – let’s take a look at the numbers and rankings for this match up on Sunday Night Football, shall we?

(GB Off v NY Def)  The Packers offense is ranked 29th overall in yards/game…yep, 29th.  Somehow they’re off to a worse start than their finished last season.  The Packers and Aaron Rodgers possess the 29th ranked passing offense and 16th rushing offense.  They welcome in a Giants defense which ranks 18th v the pass and 9th against the run, while possessing the 11th overall defense.  This matchup favors New York, just based on numbers, but with such a small sample size and so many unknown factors, let’s take a look at the other side of the ball.

(GB Def v NY Off)  Green Bay holds the 13th overall defense (29th v the pass and 1st (by a wide margin) against the rush) while the Giants are ranked 6th overall in offense (4th pass/19th rush).  This matchup would favor NY again, but let’s take a look as to why the Packers can, should, and likely will win this game.  While the Packers haven’t been “right” since the divisional round playoff game v Dallas in Jan. 2015, Green Bay has managed to win 6 of their last 9 home games while building up – what looks to be – a great run defense.  The Giants can score and have playmakers at the wide receiver position, but if Nick Perry and Mike Daniels keep playing at the level they have been since the postseason last year, that should prove difficult for Eli Manning to tear them apart.

The pessimist in me focuses on how this offense vanished in the 2nd half v a bad Detroit team and a player I have high hopes for (Randall) has had an Ahmad Carroll-like season so far.  The optimist in me sees that this team is playing playoff football, successfully.  Rules #1A and 1B, run the ball and stop the run.  The Packers have shown the ability to run the football when they so choose, even though Lacy should drop another 20-30lbs his vision is spectacular, and the Packers are giving up just over 40 yards/game.  If this trend continues, and the passing offense can return close to 2014 form, this team very well could be on its way…but the realist in me needs to see it grow and improve over the next 13 games.

Giants 23
Packers 28

Covering it All??

With the bye week, there’s plenty to cover.  Let’s try and take an organized approach to this week and see if I can follow it, shall we?

  1. Is the offense fixed?
  2. Did McCarthy get conservative?
  3. Am I justified criticizing #12? (my close friends and co-workers are aware)
  4. What’s wrong with Randall?
  5. Is Nick Perry really this good?
  6. Is the BYE coming at a good time?

Ok, let’s tackle these (pun intended)…

(1) Offense – The production certainly increased, especially in the first half v Detroit.  They’re not a premier defense, but I believe the Lions’ defense is a good test to see where this offense is at.  Let’s take a look at the 1st half play-calling…there were 29 plays run by the Packers: 14 from under-center; 15 from shotgun.  There were 21 called pass plays and 8 called rushing plays.  If you know me, I’m a big proponent of running the ball and running an offense from under-center.  It’s the quickest method to get the QB the ball, and there’s much more you can do from under center with more effectiveness.  A play that us Packer fans haven’t seen was the TD to Richard Rodgers (TE), a stretch play-action to the left with Rich Rod (Richard Rodgers) pulling across the formation to open in the flat for an easy TD.  That was a sight for sore eyes.

(2) Conservative – The Lions scored a quick TD right before the end of the 1st half to cut the score to 31-10.  Then came out in the 2nd half and took the ball down for another TD holding it for about 5 ½ minutes.  Looking at the play-calling, one may say the play-calling was conservative, others might say Lacy is in a groove and use and abuse the Lions’ D which should be beat up and tired.  Another factor is the Packers’ D had been on the field quite a bit and with all of the injuries (and suspension to Pennel) was in much need of a break.  Either way, let’s take a look at it…in the 3rd quarter, Green Bay ran a total of 9 plays with quite a bit of production from Lacy, however had to settle for only 3 points.  In the 4th quarter, and the score 34-20, the Packers came out with an under-center, single-back look – went play action to Lacy and tried for a home-run to ice the game, but no one was open.  Then it came to a few runs which garnered a couple of 1st downs, but no points.  Then the next possession was Green Bay’s last, and with it was a bit predictable, but on 3rd and 7 and 3+ min remaining, Rodgers had Davante Adams open across the middle and either A. didn’t see him or B. wasn’t comfortable making the throw, so he pulled it down and ran for the 1st, essentially icing the game.  All in all, I think there was a method to the play-calling, with the factors being: the Defense had been on the field a lot and struggling; Lacy and the offensive line were creating space and producing chunks of yards.

(3) Is the “real” Rodgers back? – He played exceptionally well in the first half, to the level that’s expected of him.  I don’t think it’s realistic to expect him to throw for 4 TDs in the 1st half all the time, however, it’s plenty reasonable for him to be 11/14 for 150 yards.  My main concern, is him throwing off of his back foot especially with a pocket.  It didn’t affect any production or specific throws until the 4th quarter on a key 3rd down with Cobb crossing the middle.  Had Aaron stepped into the throw and lead Randall, I believe it would’ve lead to a large gain (15+ yards) and may have catapulted the offense to another score and putting the game away early in the 4th.  Overall, he played quite well and let’s hope that play (efficiency from the 1st half) continues next Sunday night v the Giants.  If the Packers have sights of raising the Lombardi trophy in early February, they’ll need the rush defense to stay atop or near the top of the NFL, the pass coverage to improve greatly, AND the former MVP QB to play like one in Jan and Feb.

(4) What’s wrong with Damarious Randall? – in week 2 at Minnesota Randall was the primary cover corner on Stefon Diggs, the Vikings’ premier WR was targeted 10 times with 9 receptions for 182 yards and a TD.  In the following week v Detroit for the home-opener, Randall was tasked with covering Marvin Jones.  The final stat line for the Lions’ 2nd WR????  6 receptions on 8 targets for 205 yards and 2 TDs!?!?!?  From what I saw, re-watching the game, Randall’s great play striping the ball from Eric Ebron (Detroit’s up-and-coming TE) in the 2nd quarter may have led to him getting torched later in the game on the long TD right before the half.  Damarious seemed to have jump the under-route (another defender’s target) thus leaving Jones wide open for an easy completion.  I’m not sure what happened in Minnesota, however the TD to Diggs was a well-thrown ball on pretty good coverage.  I’m still holding out hope that Randall will be good because he’s shown lock-down ability.  The sooner that arrives, the better!

(5) Is this the real Nick Perry? – I’ve always liked Perry, but just thought he was an ideal 4-3 Defensive End and it has taken him this long to fully adapt to a 3-4 Outside Linebacker.  On top of that, his health has always been an issue, I believe this is the longest stretch of health he’s experienced since being drafted.  There was a key play that stood out to me in his first game as a pro that lead me to believe there was potential for the stiff-looking, bulky body of #53.  The opening game in 2012, hosting San Francisco, there was a dump-off pass to HB Kendall Hunter in the flat which was a great play design by then Head Coach, Jim Harbaugh, and Perry was able to make the tackle in the open field v a shifty HB.  That athleticism combined with his brute strength could make for a very dominant 3-4 OLB, and we’re seeing that play pay off now.  It’ll likely result in a hefty payday for Perry and if he continues to stay healthy, could prove to be a key component of a very good defense in the coming years.

(6) Bye timing convenient? – Aaron Rodgers said he hates the early bye, as do most of the other players, but did mention that it might help due to all of the injuries the Packers are experiencing: Sam Shields; Clay Matthews; Morgan Burnett; Letroy Guion; Mike Pennel (suspension, back for Dallas).  The key player the Packers need returned is Sam Shields.  That slides Randall down to cover the 2nd or 3rd WR with Rollins covering the other.  LaDarius Gunter (#36) has played quite well and is showing growth since being a breakout star in 2015’s training camp.  A player that got quite a few snaps last week was undrafted free agent rookie Kentrell Brice (#29) from Louisiana Tech.  I’ve loved him since camp based on his speed and athleticism.  Brice was not invited to the NFL combine this past year, and he wasn’t drafted, however credit Ted Thompson and his staff for finding this player.  If developed correctly could be a real player in this league for a long time.  He’s arguably the fastest player on the roster with running a 4.38 40-yard dash at his pro day.  If he plays sound football and keeps the ball in front of him, allowing him to attack by using his speed, he could be quite the compliment to HaHa Clinton-Dix and present a formidable challenge for opposing offenses.

Well, if you’re still with me, thanks!  We’ll preview the Giants next week coming in for Sunday Night Football and we’ll get a good look at them this Monday Night when they head to US Bank Stadium to take on the rolling Vikings.

After correctly picking the Packers v Detroit, I’m 11-10. Stay tuned for next week and thanks for reading!

An Absolute Mess

Well what an awful game.  The Vikings are missing their starting QB, didn’t have their Hall of Fame running back, were without their best D Lineman and 2nd cornerback, and still got the W versus Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.  I wish I could say “I’m surprised,” but the fact of the matter is nothing’s changed from last year.  Offensive scheme is predictable, there’s no design for anyone to get open, the QB rarely lines up under center, and Rodgers’ ego is in full force.

Sure the Vikings have a good defense, but what’s the point in having an all-world QB if he’s not going to best those defenses?  If you’ve paid attention to local sports media at all this week you’ve heard the numbers.

  • Aaron Rodgers hasn’t had a 100+ QB rating in 14 straight games.
  • Rodgers is 1-6 in his last seven primetime games, with the lone win coming on a Hail Mary.

 

Amongst many other stats I could  spew out (and believe me, if you’d like me to I’ll be more than happy to), but until this team shows it can win in the clutch (key word being WIN), I can’t believe this team is capable of winning another Lombardi trophy.

The Vikings may have an issue winning any of their next 3 games, but if they somehow win 2 of those, they’re on track to win the division and possibly earn a BYE in the postseason.  As for Green Bay, aside from blowing it up and rebuilding, this team seems destined for another postseason berth ending in choking again.

Enter Detroit, a team (to borrow a line from NBA Analyst, Bill Simmons) that being stuck in neutral would be considered a compliment, to Lambeau Field for a Noon Sunday kick to renew the “rivalry.”  Stafford and his Offensive Coordinator, Jim Bob Cooter (yes that’s his real name) came into Lambeau last year and bested the Packers.  Not sure if you remember that game, but I’ll refer you to my blog post that I believe was title “9 Consecutive Punts?!?!”  Green Bay’s defense seems to have found its groove to stopping the run, but needs major help in the pass defense department since Sam Shields went down with a concussion.  Diggs smoked Randall all night with only a few days’ practice with his QB.  Look for the Packers to get after Stafford, hopefully Clay and Datone are healthy enough to play, but Nick Perry should have another solid game.  As tough as it is for me to pick the Packers to win, it’s almost irresponsible if I don’t.

Detroit is banged up, might be missing their top 2 defenders (Deandre Levy and Ziggy Ansah), and even a porous showing of 20 points by the Packers should get the job done.  Then again, that would’ve won the game last Sunday night.

So to recap – the Packers have major problems and I don’t think there’s a fix that can occur this season that will result in a Super Bowl trophy.  The defense seems to be in top 10 form, but with a QB way off his mark (I don’t feel like starting a war as to naming the reason), and an offense that my 1 year-old daughter can predict…I don’t see this team fully dominating any teams this season.  Then again if it happens, take my word for it “It’s a mirage.”

Go Pack Go!

Lions 16
Packers 24

*overall record now 10-10*

New Info, New Pick!

I’ve learned this morning that two of the Vikings’ defensive starters have been ruled out for tomorrow night’s game: Sharrif Floyd (DT); Xavier Rhodes (CB).  While Rhodes is an adequate corner, with good size he seemed like a viable option to cover an obvious non-100% Jordy Nelson.

 

Meanwhile, Minnesota will likely feel the absence of Floyd.  He’s a premier interior defensive lineman in all the NFL and can effect both the running and passing game.  I also believe he’s a better player than Malik Jackson (he signed a big time $ deal with Jacksonville in the offseason and was supposed to wreak havoc v Lane Taylor), and could’ve caused an issue for Lane Taylor, but not to worry now.  The main focus for the offensive line is now to handle Linval Joseph, their other great defensive tackle.

 

With this newfound information, I’m updating my pick to…

 

Packers 27

Vikings 17

 

*I never kept a running total, or score of my weekly predictions.  Here they are.  I never picked an outcome for week 1 last year, but I’ll play it safe and say I’m confident that I would’ve picked the Pack to best Chicago, at least heading into the season.  Since last year was so puzzling, each and every game, I’ll actually take some pride in picking .500.  With the correct pick of last week, my record is 10-9.