These teams have lost as many, or more, starter snaps to injury as any teams in the NFL. Yet both are in the mix.

Review~

Special Teams: Not that it needs to be stated, but Special Teams, are, well, um…special.  Thankfully the Bears are that bad that it didn’t cost the Packers the game.

• Crosby hit a 20-yard FG, and all 6 of his extra point attempts – knocked a kickoff OB, and almost nailed another OB.
• Without getting into each failure – the special teams cost Green Bay anywhere from 19-42 points (in total). 

Defense: The defense, similar to the Rams game, aside from 2 plays enjoyed themselves.  Yet another pick-6 by Rasul Douglas (Yours Truly thought Green Bay would have 2 in the game), and every other aspect was executed fairly well. 

                The 2 plays accounted for 14 points (end around to Grant and the slant route to Byrd), and it shouldn’t be minimized as that was killer in last year’s NFC title game vs. Tampa Bay (big TD to Mike Evans to go up 7-0, then right before half after Aaron’s INT, to Scotty Miller to increase the lead 21-10).  This needs to be handled, and soon, as the QB-play ramps up a bit in January.  Oh yeah, not to get ahead of ourselves, but we’ll likely see that guy who’s won 7 super bowls.

Offense: While starting slow, again, the offense really hit stride and once they find a groove (coupled with the defense getting off the field to keep the O in rhythm), they’re fun to watch…and can take over a game – in turn which applies a boatload of pressure to the opposing QB. 

        Once the offense began running the ball, that rhythm ensued.  Excluding Kurt Benkert’s kneel downs, the Packers had 22 rushes for 120 yards…great production.  The time of possession, which began poorly, quickly turned into an advantage, essentially winning it 35 minutes to Chicago’s 25. 

Current Standing: thanks to the LA Rams for besting Arizona on Monday Night Football, the Packers currently hold the #1 seed, via tiebreaker.  Yes, the 1 seed didn’t assist the Packers last season, but a team with a bye has won the Super Bowl about 50% of the time since 1992 (beginning of Free Agency), and with the 1-seed having the only bye, I’ll take my chances and it would be the chance for the Packers to win the Super Bowl by getting the BYE.

Matchup~

	GB Def.	(rank)	vs.	Bal Off.	(rank)
Rush	105.2	9		144.8	3
Pass	218.5	9		243.2	12
Total	323.6	6		388.0	5
Pts	20.9	7		23.4	17
	GB Off.			Bal Def.
Rush	107.6	20		85.5	1
Pass	253.8	9		266.1	31
Total	361.5	13		351.5	18
Pts	25.2	14		21.8	10
T/O
Takeaways	22	8th		11	T-29th
Giveaways	10	T-1st		20	T-21st
Diff.	12	2nd		(9)	29th

It seems the red-hot Aaron Rodgers should have a fun time facing the 31^st ranked pass defense, especially with Baltimore ravaged with positive Covid cases in the secondary.  The Ravens will try to shorten the game, by running the ball and playing ball-control offense, keeping Aaron off the field.  The issue is the Ravens are somehow 8-5 with an awful Turnover differential, that’s actually impressive.  Keep an eye on Special Teams, Baltimore features very solid play at all special team positions – with the best Kicker of all time, Justin Tucker. 

The Ravens will be missing Lamar Jackson and DT/DE Calais Campbell (very solid player for a long time).  Green Bay will be missing Billy Turner, as far as starters go.  It’s difficult to imagine the Packers losing this game, even if Lamar played, but the only way I see that happening is if they lay a dud, ala Week 1 vs. New Orleans (in Jacksonville).

Packers 27
Ravens 20

Season: 9-4
Overall: 78-40

Current Standing~ the Packers can clinch the NFC North Divisional title with a Vikings loss tonight vs. Pittsburgh AND a win vs. Chicago on Sunday Night.  There are other scenarios for clinching a playoff berth, but with 5 games left, meh.  Winning out is the object as that’s likely what’s needed to obtain the #1 seed, for the second consecutive season. 

While Green Bay squandered that opportunity last year, if you keep getting a Bye in the postseason, the odds swing in your favor, eventually – unless your QB is a choke artist…

So, for that 1^st seed (which is the only BYE for the 2^nd year in a row), you should be rooting for the:

• Steelers (tonight @ Minnesota)
• Washington (v. Dallas)
• Buffalo (@ Tampa Bay)
• LA Rams (@ Arizona, on Monday night)

If that all occurs, the Packers will have the best record in the NFL, tied with Arizona at 10-3, but obviously everyone remembers beating Arizona, so the tiebreaker will be held by Green Bay.  The Packers would also clinch the division and they’d Control Their Destiny. 

Preview~ I recently heard the Packers, under LaFleur, are 0-2 coming off their BYE week (in the regular season), and 2-2 if you include the postseason.  I’m not sure what that means, but both regular season games, off their BYE, they were obliterated and didn’t seem like they should’ve been on the field:

1. 2019, week 12, blasted by San Francisco 37-8
2. 2020, week 6, smoked by Tampa Bay 38-10, after going up 10-0 and driving before a pick-6, then another (almost) pick-6 derailed that. 

The differences (and similarities) were the Packers eventually lost in the playoffs to each team, both in the NFC title game.  That won’t happen this year as the Bears aren’t making the playoffs.  Also, in the regular season, both of those games were on the road, and this is a night game at Lambeau, where LaFleur is badass.

Matchup~

	Chi-off	(rank)	vs.	GB-def	(rank)
Rush	125.1	8		102.5	8
Pass	173.8	32		219.2	9
Total	298.8	30		321.7	7
Pts	16.8	30		20.2	5
	Chi-def			GB-off
Rush	120.1	23		106.7	21
Pass	207.8	6		248.3	9
Total	327.9	9		355.0	15
Pts	23.9	22		23.6	15
T/O
Takeaways	11	T-28th		19	T-9th
Giveaways	19	T-23rd		10	T-2nd
Diff.	(8)	T-9th		9	T-4th

The stats/rankings show a relatively real look at the true matchup between these two franchises.  The Packers are arguably the best team in the NFL, while the Bears are about as bad as one can be with 4 wins.  They turn the ball over far too often to really compete, and don’t take it away enough to help their awful offense. 

As for the “True Strength,”:

• Packers: +41 (11^th)
• Bears: -86 (27^th)

Again, another telling ranking, and fairly accurate.  The Packers haven’t really blown anyone out, and have one blowout loss.  They have, however, won solidly a few times, with one of those games coming in Week 6 @ Chicago, winning 24-14.  Look for the Bears to pull out all of the stops as they must win out and get a bunch of help to make the playoffs…plus Nagy is will overthink everything, per usual and hand you games when you’re playing awfully. 

Bears 13
Packers 27

Season: 8-4
Overall: 77-40

Review~ a very interesting game.  So interesting that, even though I attended the game and had a good feel for it, still needed to rewatch it twice to get a better understanding for what happened.  It was a game where the Offense put up almost 400 yards (399) and 29 points (7 came from the Rasul Douglas pick-6) and the offense didn’t seem like it played well.  Adversely, the defense gave up 353 yards (5.8 yards/play) and 28 points, but seemed to play well.  That’s leading me to crunch some numbers in the latter portion of this blog.

Time of Possession – the Packers absolutely dominated this category and that does 2 major things:

1. Your defense stays fresh while your opponents’ D gets worn down
2. Your offense gets into (and keeps) a rhythm, while the other offense doesn’t and feels compelled to force things.

The sheer domination of it, 39:40 v 20:20 makes it nearly impossible to not win the game unless you score so quickly and make the other team drive down the field, consistently and settle for field goals.  The only game like this that comes to mind is the 2001 Divisional playoff loss @ St. Louis, where Green Bay won the total yards and time of possession, but Favre threw 6 interceptions…so there ya go.

Turnovers – as I always bring up, and most others too, the Packers won that battle 3:1.  Even then, the Packers’ offense only scored 6 points off the 2 they got, whereas Rasul Douglas got 6 of his own after the interception.  So, the team scored 12 points off 3 turnovers.  That seems like the minimum, which if that would’ve been the case in last year’s NFC title game, the Packers probably win. 

What’s not considered in the turnover margin, was McVay’s decision to go for it on 4^th & 1 from his own 29, early in the 2^nd quarter.  That turned into a free 3 points, which ended up making a fairly large difference in the game.  Points are king, and in the 1^st half, kicking field goals are usually the right play and vise versa. 

Rasul Douglas—has been nothing short of incredible since his pick-up.  He iced the Arizona game and came up with 4 big time plays vs. LAR.  It’s difficult to tell if he was solely at fault for the OBJ touchdown, but he did drop an easy interception which truly would’ve iced this game, when OBJ fell down.  Either way, he’s been incredible and the thought that if the Packers could get Jaire Alexander back, that would only help – however it’s dangerous to think that b/c often times the timing, comradery, overall flow of the defensive backfield runs amiss…but with that, please let’s get the best corner in football back, I believe it can only help. 

Kicking – I’m still not sure if it’s a timing issue with the entire unit or if it’s Crosby.  Again, either way, it must be fixed.  The first 2 kicks had a knuckling effect and barely went through.  The one miss began towards splitting the uprights, but pulled left and hit the upright.  Frustrating is quite the understatement. 

Offensive Line – while it held up fairly well against a healthy and stout defensive front, didn’t clear much room for running lanes and caved into pressure often.  A credit to Dillon and Rodgers for producing a maximum amount.  Aaron Jones didn’t have much of a chance to get rolling, however it’ll be nice for both Jones and the OL to get well-deserved rest to return to as close as 100%. 

Standings of Stats~

The points/possession, for both the offense and defense is interesting to look at.  I haven’t gone through all 32 teams, but this may explain a better feeling of the game vs. LA.  The offense, while scoring 30 points, didn’t seem to play well, adversely the Defense giving up 28 points, did.

	Points	Possessions	Pts./Possession
	Off.	Def.	Off.	Def.	Off.	Def.
at Saints	3	38	9	9	0.33	4.22
v Lions	35	17	10	9	3.50	1.89
at 49ers	30	28	10	10	3.00	2.80
v Steelers	27	17	11	11	2.45	1.55
at Bengals	25	22	13	12	1.92	1.83
at Bears	24	14	9	8	2.67	1.75
v Wash.	24	10	9	10	2.67	1.00
at Cardinals	24	21	10	8	2.40	2.63
at Chiefs	7	13	10	11	0.70	1.18
v Seahawks	17	0	9	10	1.89	0.00
at Vikings	31	34	9	9	3.44	3.78
v Rams	30	28	13	14	2.31	2.00
Total	277	242	122	121	27.3	24.62
Avg.	23.08	20.17	10.17	10.08	2.27	2.05

Giving up 2 points/possession in a game is just below the average for the season. When the Packers hold their opponent to that number, or below, their record is 7-1, with the lone loss come in Kansas City when Jordan Love got his first start and only scored 0.70 points/possession.  Even then, had Mason made his field goals and not muffed a punt inside our own 10, the Packers win that game. Interesting to say the least.  Maybe something to keep an eye on from here on out…

Lastly—something I stumbled into, the amount of $ being spent on players currently listed on IR (Injury Reserve) is incredible.  What’s more incredible is the production this team has gotten with that much talent injured/not-producing.  Take a look at the names on this list, and the amount…

Player	Pos.	Cap Hit	Cap %
Za’Darius Smith	OLB	$14,620,000	7.85%
Jaire Alexander	CB	$3,834,281	2.06%
Elgton Jenkins	LT/LG	$1,849,805	0.99%
Robert Tonyan	TE	$1,504,800	0.81%
Josh Myers	CB	$1,014,570	0.54%
Randy Ramsey	OLB	$780,000	0.42%
Whitney Mercilus	OLB	$716,667	0.38%
Kylin Hill	HB	$543,655	0.29%
Chauncey Rivers	OLB	$469,445	0.25%
Total		$25,333,223	13.59%

*This is pulled from https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/cap/

Again, this doesn’t take into account starting All-World LT David Bakhtiari whom hasn’t suited up since the turn of the year (Jan 1, 2021).  However, after looking through all 32 teams (no I did not chart them), the Packers seem to be right in the middle of all of them.  There are a handful of teams with a far higher percentage of their cap on IR (Ravens, Panthers, Titans, for example) – it’s still a testament to how the Packers are as injured as any team in the league, yet still as good (or better) than all of the teams.

Review~ Cousins beat us…just a few milliseconds late on a couple of plays made the difference.  The roughing call on Keke that negated Savage’s first INT, then Savage’s “dropped” INT, which could’ve been his 2^nd, added 10 points to the Vikings’ ledger. 

Missed Kick.  It’s growing more and more apparent that this is an issue with the long snapper and/or holder, however the issue must be fixed.  Crosby was perfect last season and began 9/9 this year prior to the Packers making the switch from Hunter Bradley to Steven Wirtel (#46).   Either way, this must be figured out, regardless of How.

Penalties – 8 accepted for 92 yards.  That’s a killer, essentially adding that total to the Vikings.  As mentioned above, the Keke roughing added 7 points to Minnesota which could’ve been a 10–14-point swing right there.

Time of Possession – Minnesota won the TOP 31:01 to 28:59. Yes, the Defense could’ve/should’ve come up with the stop on that last Minnesota drive, and damn near did, but they didn’t and the Packers lost.

While the loss dropped Green Bay to the 2-seed and bumped Minnesota up to the 6^th seed, I still don’t feel any worse/better after this game, as the injuries really affected the Packers.  Assuming some of these guys will return before season’s end, that should give confidence to Packer nation that this team is as talented as any team in the NFL. 

Matchup~

	LAR-off	(rank)	vs.	GB-def	(rank)
Rush	97.9	24		105.6	12
Pass	289.3	4		213.2	7
Total	387.2	6		318.8	7
Pts	27.1	7		19.5	5
	LAR-def			GB-off
Rush	105.2	11		108.0	20
Pass	241.7	16		243.0	13
Total	346.9	12		351.0	18
Pts	22.7	15		22.5	17
T/O
Takeaways	14	T-12th		16	T-8th
Giveaways	11	T-7th		9	T-3rd
Diff.	3	T-9th		7	4th

Preview~ This seems to be about an even a matchup as there’s been this year in the NFL, at least on paper.  I believe the Packers opened as 1.5-point favorites, and as of Friday afternoon, the Rams are 0.5-point favorites.  Keep in mind the Packers are making up for their fortunate health situation in 2019 & 2020 with 16 guys on the IR (Injured Reserve and/or Injury Report), which resembles 2010.

This is a strength vs. strength (Rams’ Offense vs. Green Bay’s Defense), especially the passing game.  The Packers struggled last week, but aside from Kenny Clark absolutely humiliating every center the Vikings threw out there, Green Bay still couldn’t generate enough of a pass rush (2 sacks on 5 QB hits) to help the decimated secondary. 

This may be it for the margin for error when it comes to obtaining the 1-seed, then again, this has been a screwy a year as ever, and once a team looks great, they get bested by a $hit team (i.e., see Buffalo losing to Jacksonville).  If Green Bay can get to their BYE at 9-3, with the idea that potentially Aaron Jones, Rashan Gary (whom may play Sunday vs LA), Za’Darius Smith, and possibly Jaire Alexander could return before the postseason could really inject life (and a boat load of talent and production) into an already strong team.

This should feel like a playoff game – even as it’s a rematch of the divisional round game last year – Aaron Donald will be 100% this game, the Packers’ OL will be far from it.  Could the difference be Aaron Donald (#99), Von Miller (#40), and Leonard Floyd (#54) vs. a really banged up Packers front-5?  Hopefully Rodgers and LaFleur can get crafty enough to get running lanes and the screen-game going to alleviate pressure and hold the ball.  The weather could play a factor for the speedy Rams, so let’s see what these guys come up with, shall we?

Rams 27
Packers 28

Season: 7-4
Overall: 76-40

Review~ the statement was made and verified in these last 2 games.  The Packers’ defense is good; possibly great.  While Rodgers was off upon his return, he did plenty of things that deserved the victory.  He missed on 2 passes that didn’t come back to kill the team:

1. The interception in the end zone to Jamal Adams on 3^rd & 6 when it was only a 3-0 game, coming off the Kevin King interception.
2. The pass to Aaron Jones 2 plays prior that could’ve gone for a touchdown. 

Nitpicky, but one decision and another throw that Rodgers has in muscle-memory, it seems.

LaFleur stuck with the ground game, and it paid off, again.  Aaron Jones had 11 touches for 86 yards.  A.J. Dillon had his 2^nd best pro game with 23 touches, 128 yards, and 2 TDs.  Patrick Taylor chipped in with 2 rushes for 7 yards in mop up time/elevation from the Jones injury.

The HBs touched it 51.4% of the snaps accounting for 221 yards (56.2%) and 2 TDs.  That’s some great balance and only opens up the pass game. 

One looming issue is the O-line.  The Packers could really benefit from getting Bakhtiari and rookie Center, Josh Myers back from injury.  However, the issue with Bakhtiari is he tore his ACL on New Year’s Day, and while that’s typically a 12-month injury, it takes an additional season for a player to return to (or flirt with) 100%.  The rumor is 69 suffered a “setback” in practice this week.  He’s too good of a player, in the latter portion of his prime years to be messing around with that – yes I know the Packers have as good a shot at winning as ever, it doesn’t mean you rush a player of this caliber back, especially when 69’s window could be open for another 4 years.

All in all, a very solid W…one that should have you excited as we trend towards the best part of the football season.

Preview~ should Green Bay prevail, the division race (not the goal, but a decent check mark) is all but over.  The Packers would hold a 5.5+ (the “+” is due to the tiebreaker) game lead over Minnesota with 6 to play.  While many say “This Vikings team is better than their record,” I’m a fairly big believer in the Bill Parcells motto “You are what your record says you are.”  Do the Vikes have talent?  Sure.  Are they good?  They can be, sometimes.  Is this their Super Bowl since they can’t win one?  Yes.

Green Bay will take Minnesota’s best shot come Noon Sunday.  In addition to the divisional race (it’s over), the Vikings are sitting in the 8^th spot (remember the NFL now takes 7 teams from each conference), so they’re fighting like hell for that last spot. 

Matchup~

	GB	(rank)	vs.	Min	(rank)
Off Rush	109.3	19th		122.4	9th
Off Pass	230.1	18th		262.2	9th
Off Total	339.4	20th		384.7	7th
Off Pts	21.7	19th		24.6	14th
Def Rush	107.2	14th		130.6	28th
Def Pass	202.7	3rd		238.6	14th
Def Total	309.9	3rd		369.1	23rd
Def Pts	18.0	3rd		23.4	16th
T/O
Takeaways	16	6th		12	T-14th
Giveaways	9	T-5th		6	T-1st
Diff.	7	4th		6	T-5th

Keep in mind, last week Seattle entered 1^st in giveaways, with 4.  Green Bay took it away twice, ultimately should’ve been thrice (Amos’ dropped 2^nd INT).  I believe that’s a testament to Joe Barry.  The coaching staff is essentially the same, the personnel is very similar with the one major exception being De’Vondre Campbell (ILB #59).  He’s not only had an outstanding season, the team has tackled, covered, and been in position far better than any year since 2010.  I believe the major factor is Joe Barry’s ability to deliver the message and the defense (especially the secondary of Amos & Savage) to relay it to the rest of the D. 

^^As you can see, Minnesota has a top-10 offense, in yards, but struggles converting it to points.  Their defense is average across the board, except they can’t stop the run, so “Hello A.J. Dillon.”

Also, what’s not listed in the matchup stats is Green Bay ranks 4^th in Time of Possession, averaging 32:07 minutes (not including any OT time).  That’s a monstrous help to the defense…they’re not on the field!

Also, we’re getting to the point in the season where Point-Differential matters.  It’s indicative of a team’s True Strength. The Packers currently sit 10^th in the NFL with a +36, while Minnesota (under .500 mind you) is 17^th at +10.  You may want to “throw out” week 1 as this Packers team isn’t that team.  While true, it’s incorporated for a reason, mainly because even good teams have No Shows from time to time. 

Year	Champ	Pt. Diff. Rank
2020	Buccaneers	4th
2019	Chiefs	4th
2018	Patriots	5th
2017	Eagles	2nd
2016	Patriots	1st
2015	Broncos	10th
2014	Patriots	1st
2013	Seahawks	2nd
2012	Ravens	11th
2011	Giants	19th (-6??)
2010	Packers	2nd

So, essentially outside of the random 2011 Giants team, the Super Bowl champ averages 5^th – 6^th (including that Giants ranking) in this category.  Remove them, and its 4^th.  My belief is by season’s end, the Packers will be in that top-4 ranking again (last season finished 3^rd). 

The playmakers are well-known: #18 Justin Jefferson; #19 Adam Thielen; #33 Dalvin Cook.  Stopping Cook is key – he tore apart Green Bay last year in Lambeau (226 yards, 4 TDs, on 32 touches) and that was the difference.  I believe it’ll be a bit of a lower scoring game again…

Packers 24
Vikings 20

Season: 7-3
Overall: 76-39

Review~ that was the best performance by a Green Bay defense in quite some time.  However, there’s an asterisk next to it due to Kansas City having a whole bunch of things wrong with them…still held their 1^st potential scoring offense to 13 points with a boat load of special team errors. 

LaFleur got away from the run, again – I don’t mean to make it sound like this often happens, but often enough – recording only 25 rush attempts of the 60 total snaps (41.67%).  Of the 301 total yards, 122 came from rushing (40.5%).

• Aaron Jones: 12 carries, 2 targets, 53 total yards
• A.J. Dillon: 8 carries, 4 targets, 90 total yards

The Packers won the time of possession, hell they dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and controlled the game.  While I don’t like absolutes, Almost Always the QB decides the outcome of the game.  This was one of those games (like 95-99% of all games) dictated by the QB.  The Packers needed Love to come up with 1-2 more plays…meanwhile Mahomes was off (both has been all year and credit to Green Bay’s defense), yet made a game-clinching throw in crunch time. 

Even with Love’s below-average debut, had the Packers:

1. Not had a mis-hold, pull-hooked FG
2. Not had a blocked FG
3. Muffed a punt
4. Dropped INT (King) before half

…those 4 plays alone would’ve swung the game from a 7-13 loss into a 13-7 Packers win.  Now, that’s easy to say, but the game would’ve gone/flowed much different if any one of those things happened differently.  The promising thing (while there’s no Moral Victories, there are things to take away and notice from our perspective) is the Packers went into one of the toughest environments, against an uber-talented team (two-time AFC’s Super Bowl representative) in Desperation, and without a comedy of special team errors, would’ve come out victorious with an inexperienced backup QB and a slew of injuries.

*I may write a separate blog during the BYE week discussing Jordan Love’s “performance,” but I haven’t seen enough of him to decide whether he’s “good” or otherwise. *

Do I think Love is the future?  I hope so, but I know that I don’t know, yet…

Preview~ Seattle is an interesting team coming in.  They’re coming off a BYE, having won their first home game of the season in their last game (W 31-7 vs. Jacksonville on Oct. 31^st). 

2021	Sea D.	vs.	GB O.
Rush	127.6 (25)		109.7 (18)
Pass	273.9 (29)		223.8 (23)
Total	401.5 (31)		333.4 (22)
Points	21.1 (9)		22.1 (20)
	Sea O.	vs.	GB D.
Rush	102.9 (21)		110.8 (17)
Pass	211.1 (27)		210.4 (7)
Total	314.0 (29)		321.2 (5)
Points	22.6 (19)		20.0 (6)

The Packers have the better rank in 7 of the 8 categories, but Seattle seems to be the epitome of Bend but Don’t Break defense.  They have awful yard rankings, yet are the 9^th scoring D, giving up 21.1 points/game.

	TURNOVERS
	Takeaways	Giveaways	Diff.
Sea	8 (T-23rd)	4 (1st)	4 (T-8th)
GB	14 (T-6th)	8 (T-5th)	6 (T-4th)

Seattle also doesn’t turn the ball over, giving it away only 4 times all season.  The Packers failed to generate a turnover for the first time since week 1.  It seems Kenny Clark and Erik Stokes weren’t injured too severely, however were listed as “Questionable” on Friday during and after practice.  It would greatly help to have both back in the lineup, especially to combat the return of Russell Wilson – who will be looking for his 1^st victory in Lambeau Field in his career. 

Another Equalizer could be Red Zone efficiency, both on offense and defense. 

RED ZONE
	Off. (%/Rank)	Def. (%/Rank)
Sea	75% (2)	48.4% (5)
GB	55.9% (T-20)	76% (31)

Seattle absolutely OWNS this department as the Packers are terrible on both accounts, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  This is yet another matchup vs. a capable QB on a desperate team, however this time Green Bay will likely have Rodgers back under center and homefield advantage. 

Should the Packers use the ground game like they did in Arizona, and a few other times this season, it should decimate the bad (by yardage rank, but their Red Zone D is very good, hence the 9^th scoring D rank) Seattle defense, Green Bay should come out victorious.

Seahawks 21
Packers 31

Season: 6-3
Overall: 75-39

Review~ 3 main factors came from the Game of the Year:

1. Gameplan—absolutely brilliant.  It was so good that it wasn’t executed all that well, but it was such a good plan that if the 7 plays within the Cardinals’ 3-yard line netted more than 3 points, this would’ve been a Packers decisive victory.
   1. Of the 72 total plays, 34 were rush attempts (56% of the total yards)
      1. Aaron Jones had 22 touches (26 targets), 110 yards, 1 TD
      1. A.J. Dillon: 16 touches; 78 yards
2. Time of Possession.  Green Bay held the ball for 37:35 compared to Arizona’s 22:25. Sure Arizona had a chance to steal a victory at the end, had the Touchdown stood on that Packers’ last drive and/or they just pounded A.J. Dillon a bunch on any/all of those 7 plays within the Cardinals’ 3-yard line, this is a 10 to 14-point Packer victory.
3. Game Decider: +3 on the turnover ledger. 
   1. Muffed punt resulted in 3 points (easily should’ve been 7).
   1. Henry Black INT on the 1^st possession of the 2^nd half resulted in a TD toss to Cobb.
   1. INT in the end zone by newly found hero, Rasul Douglas (#29).

Preview~ well, to borrow the phrase from sports radio host, Steve Czaban, “We get a ‘Sneak Peek’ into the future.”  This is an almost ideal situation for Jordan Love to gain some much-needed experience.  It’s a regular season game, a big one, coming off a bunch of rest (Thu night previous game), heading into a marquee matchup against, quite possibly, the hungriest team in the NFL.  Let’s see what the kid can bring…

It’s a No-Lose scenario for Green Bay.

1. Green Bay has their backup QB playing, who’s never started.
2. Kansas City is hungry and needs to begin winning games.
3. Since the Packers aren’t supposed to win, a victory would send yet another message to the entire league – also, if Love can pull out a W in Arrowhead against Mahomes, that would be something.
4. If Love struggles, so what…he’s technically supposed to…see, “Can’t Lose Scenario.”

Highlighting off the above, Kansas City ain’t right.  Something is off and it’s tough to point just to the horrid defense.  Mahomes has been a turnover machine and if those 2 things keep up, the Packers very well could come out of there with a victory. 

As stated above, the Packers are coming off an extended week of rest from their Thursday night game, and Kansas City is on short rest after struggling mightily with the awful Giants on Monday night. 

Matchup~

2021	GB Off.	vs.	KC D
Rush	108.1 (17)		121.8 (22)
Pass	229.4 (22)		269.8 (25)
Total	337.5 (22)		3916.5 (29)
Points	24.0 (16)		27.5 (25)
	GB Def.	vs.	KC O
Rush	115.0 (17)		116.8 (14)
Pass	216.8 (6)		296.1 (5)
Total	331.8 (7)		412.9 (4)
Points	20.9 (9)		26.0 (9)

While Green Bay’s offense isn’t high-ranking (mostly due to the week 1 No Show), it still has the advantage in every category vs. Kansas City’s dreadful Defense.  There’s an obvious difference in the Packers’ offense this week, but if they keep with the run game, win the time of possession AND turnover battle (just like in Arizona last week), Green Bay should come out on top. 

Kansas City’s offensive line is still giving them issues dating back to Super Bowl LV when Tampa harassed Patrick Mahomes.  If the Packers can generate a pass rush with 4-5 whilst keeping the run game in check – side note: Kansas City averages 24.2 rush attempts/game which ranks 21^st – so rushing the passer and defending the homerun ball becomes paramount.  Make Kansas City be patient and methodically drive down the field (that’s actually the best formula to defend any team not quarterbacked by Tom Brady) and there will be quite a few mistakes made, just be sure to catch the INT and fall on the loose ball when the opportunity arises.

	TURNOVERS
	Takeaways	Giveaways	Diff.
GB	14 (T-3rd)	6 (T-3rd)	8 (3rd)
KC	8 (T-19th)	19 (32nd)	(11) (32nd)

Seeing the turnover differential is the main component as to why the Kansas City Chiefs are 4-4, and if they weren’t so talented could easily be 2-6…or worse.

To steal another one of Czabe’s phrases from this week (and I’m paraphrasing), “You’re gonna see (Love) make a boneheaded play, just dumbfounded play.  You’re gonna see a delay of game (surprise, we have that already with 12- that’s my line 😊).  However, you’re gonna see an example of (Love’s) arm talent.  The Packers are gonna hang and bang with the Chiefs.  It’ll be close.”

I thought that was a great take on what to “expect” in a game where I can’t imagine anyone has a true/good feeling as of what’ll take place.  I was off on last week’s prediction, but was thoroughly impressed with Rodgers’ commitment and execution of the gameplan—and he didn’t execute it all that well (LaFleur will get judged by me for not pounding Dillon every play, let alone once on the 7 goal line plays), but still overall great plan.

The fan in me tells me Green Bay pulls this out.  The realist in me tells me Mahomes and the Chiefs are too good and too desperate to drop a game to a QB making his first career start in Arrowhead.  Then again, desperation can lead to great play and it can lead to a boat load of mistakes.

Packers 24
Chiefs 27

*I have no clue as to how this will turn out.  I’d be shocked at nothing, in terms of outcome or how Love performs.  Hopefully he tears it up!  He could…so some may say I’m claiming this as to “Not be wrong,” but I’ll say “There’s no way I could be right, I think I covered everything.”

Season: 5-3
Overall: 74-39

Review~ while the Packers only ran 53 plays, this had a very odd feel for a regular season game.  There are 1-2 of those each season, and this seemed to fit the bill.  What’s odder, is the Packers only had 15 rush attempts of those 53 plays (28%), which is far under the desired ratio. 

• Aaron Jones: 11 touches
• A.J. Dillon: 4 touches (5 targets)
• Kylin Hill: 3 touches (4 targets)

Rodgers played well.  Tough to say how many runs he checked out of to quick-passes, however it was a few, at minimum.  On the touchdown drives, he did execute and seemed to be in complete control for the duration of the game. 

The defense gave up way too many rush yards, however there’s a reason for it.  95 yards came from the non-running/mobile QB, Taylor Heinicke.  He also played well, but his teammates let him down a handful of times and he made a poor decision on his lone interception (Chandon Sullivan). 

The defense did, essentially, ice the game coming up with 4 consecutive stops which turned complete control over to Rodgers & Co.  Again, solid win (nailed the margin of victory for a 3^rd consecutive week (jinx) so we’ll see).

Preview~ these are 2 of the best teams in the NFL, and should be a solid game, however if it gets sideways, it’ll likely be Arizona taking over control…here’s why.

Adams is likely to be OUT due to some sort of COVID-19 restriction, I’ll leave it all at that.

2021	GB Off.	vs.	Ari D
Rush	102.0 (19)		115.7 (18)
Pass	235.9 (18)		201.0 (3)
Total	337.9 (23)		316.7 (4)
Points	24.0 (16)		16.3 (1)
	GB Def.	vs.	Ari O
Rush	120.9 (22)		136.6 (5)
Pass	210.6 (6)		265.6 (11)
Total	331.4 (7)		402.1 (7)
Points	20.9 (7)		32.1 (4)

As you can see, the Cardinals are about as solid as a team can be.  Top-ranked scoring offense in the league, and 4^th ranked scoring defense.  It was sure to be a test heading in, however likely missing:

• #17 Adams
• #23 Alexander
• #55 Smith
• #69 Bakhtiari

…really makes this a tough ask.  However, if the Packers commit to the run game, and stick to it, there’s a shot to win the time of possession, wear that defense down, keep the game close, and have it come down to the last drive to have Rodgers make a throw for the win.  We’ll see, however, based on Arizona’s defense, they’re pretty stout everywhere.  Possibly force a turnover or 2 and capitalize on those.  Still a tough ask on a short week, on the road vs. the last-remaining unbeaten.

Packers 20
Cardinals 31

Season: 5-2
Overall: 74-38

Review~ it was the Jones & Dillon game, with appropriately-timed throws from Rodgers that led to a well-controlled 10-point victory.  Aaron Jones & A.J. Dillon accounted for 28 touches of the 57 total plays run by Green Bay (49%).  That leads to control of the football and even if the execution level is low, you still are able to dictate the outcome of the game, or at least the flow – which is precisely what occurred. 

The running backs accounted for 169 yards of the 323 total (52%), so that ratio is good…anytime you can account for more of a % of the production with a few percentages of the attempts, that’s good – if the team is rolling.  This is the Matt LaFleur offense us Packer fans have grown accustomed to, and is extremely productive.  It also keeps the defense off the field, which in turn helps the defense by putting so much pressure on the opposing offense to score and/or hold the ball…that added pressure only helps.

Also, the Refs blew about the equal number of calls both ways, which is sad b/c they’re still having far too much influence on the outcome of games across the NFL.  Sadly, I don’t think anything will change because (I’m guilty of it as well) we’re all watching at – or close to – record numbers.

The “I own you; I still own you” line was actually authentic and showed a sign of Rodgers I’ve been wanting since he last won the Super Bowl.  Let’s see if it carries into next week, next month, etc., but that’s not cocky, that type of emotion – when authentic – I classify under Determination.

Preview~ the Packers take on a football team that represent the Washington D.C. area.  Coming off a season with a very high-ranking defense, Washington has plunged to 31^st in total yards given up and dead last in points.  A great recipe to keep the momentum for the Packers to establish offensive dominance heading into the meat of their schedule.

2021	GB Off.	vs.	Was Def.
Rush	109.5 (16)		113.5 (19)
Pass	234.0 (21)		309.5 (32)
Total	343.5 (23)		423.0 (31)
Points	24.0 (15)		31.0 (32)
	GB Def.	vs.	Was Off.
Rush	108.5 (13)		106.3 (19)
Pass	206.5 (4)		229.8 (24)
Total	315.0 (4)		336.2 (24)
Points	22.7 (13)		22.7 (21)

Get things rolling early and often, get guys healthy and keep current players healthy and let’s roll into a short week with momentum. 

The one key matchup is to see how Elgton Jenkins (#74) handles Chase Young (#99).  Jenkins had his worst game of his career – coming back from injury – which is why I believe he struggled mightily, last week.  Young has the ability to be a game-wrecker, but if Green Bay continues to focus and run the offense through the running backs, it should be same $hit, different day.

Another one to keep an eye on is Was WR Terry McClaurin (#17).  He’s one of the NFL’s top Wideouts and matched up vs. a very banged up secondary – if Washington pulls off the upset, it’ll likely be from a couple of huge plays by #17.

WFT (WTF?) 24
Packers 38

Season: 4-2
Overall: 73-38

Review~ the game transpired about the way I thought it would, except for the kicking issues completely over-shadowing the entirety of the game.  Green Bay completely controlled the game, until the blown coverage/call on the long TD to Ja’Marr Chase right before half, which should’ve resulted in a Darnell Savage interception.  Yet, like 90% of the time, the better team won.  The better team also won the turnover battle, which may or may not have dictated the outcome.

What’s promising was the Packers put up 466 total yards vs. the 7^th ranked defense (in yards, giving up 323 coming into the game) on the road.  That came to 7.4 yards/play.  That’s great production, a testament to the gameplan and execution.  There were quite a few checkdowns, which I’ve been clamoring for for a while.  All 3 running backs touched the ball:

• Aaron Jones: 14 carries for 103 yards; 4 receptions on 5 targets for 6 yards; totaling 109 yards.
• A.J. Dillon: 8 carries for 30 yards; 4 receptions on 4 targets for 49 yards and a TD- 79 yards.
• Kylin Hill: 0 carries; 1 reception on 1 target for 5 yards.

That’s solid balance, the running backs produced 193 of the 466 total yards (41%) and garnered roughly 51% of the attention – 22 rushes and 10 targets, so 32 of the 63 plays. 

I’d like to see a few more rushes, but the 50% attention is really what I’m looking for, and believe that makes the QB’s job easier.  Hence the extreme production from Davante Adams (a career-high 206 receiving yards and a TD). 

Overall, a good win vs. a good team on the road.  Take it and run.

Preview~ now onto the rivalry matchup in Chicago.  The Bears actually have a winning record (3-2), and this creates a big matchup for the first time since the opening game of the 2018 season, where Rodgers mounted a great comeback – where the Bears were up 20-0 with 9:14 left in the 3^rd quarter.  Chicago eventually got to a point where they had a 97% chance of winning, until they didn’t.  Ok, fun time reminiscing, but onto 2021.

2021	GB Off.	vs.	Chi Def
Rush	100.6 (21)		103.8 (11)
Pass	247.0 (15)		228.6 (13)
Total	347.6 (21)		332.4 (9)
Points	24.0 (13)		20.0 (7)
	GB Def.	vs.	Chi Off.
Rush	102.2 (10)		126.8 (9)
Pass	220.4 (11)		113.2 (32)
Total	322.6 (6)		240.0 (32)
Points	24.4 (20)		16.8 (30)

Chicago has, by far, the worst offense in the NFL.  This is a GREAT matchup for the Packers as Chicago focuses on running the ball (9^th in the NFL in yards/game), yet Green Bay is 10^th against the run.  If Green Bay can force rookie Justin Fields to win the game with his arm, it could be a double-digit Packer victory, and may not be that close if Green Bay can get up early and force a bunch of mistakes.  Also, having Matt Nagy try to outsmart everyone typically plays into the Bears’ opponents’ favor.

Guarding against being over-confident, the Packers did play fairly well in Cincinnati, and have been improving with each week.  Also, the offensive line is literally in shambles, yet is able to do its job and be borderline impressive.

Keep the running backs involved and open up everything else – this should equate to another victory.

Packers 23
Bears 13

Season: 3-2
Overall: 72-38