To jump from last week’s phrasing, “Win out or lose out,” the Packers find themselves in a must-win if they plan to win the Super Bowl, because in order to do that one must make the playoffs…so here we go.

Review—that went a little reverse from my thought, however the end game was roughly the same.  It was closer (score) throughout the game until late in the 3^rd quarter.  Credit to the Packers’ D for not allowing an awful QB and 3 backup offensive lineman to get into the end zone.  Yes, that was facetious, but the Packers benefitted from a poor snap on the first drive of the game and didn’t really look back.

Obviously what stood out was the production of Aaron Jones.  Everyone has been screaming for him to get more touches and he responded.  Now there are 2 questions that arise:

1. Will Mike McCarthy stick to that plan, and actually get #33 more touches than even last week?
2. If that’s the case, will Jones continue to produce at a high level?

The promising thing to take away from that game is the Packers rolled out the helmets and won the game, while not playing a clean game.  They had a blocked punt, a fake punt executed vs them, and fumbled a punt return.  The good news is this team actually might be capable of playing a clean game, playing well, and actually beating a good team.  Enough of Miami, let’s move on.

Matchup— enter the Seattle Seahawks.  There are few teams Packer fans should despise.  Seattle can’t win on the road, and require all sorts of (as a friend of mine put it years ago) “fluky $hit” in CenturyLink Field to win vs good opponents.

	Offense				Defense
	Yards				Yards
	Rush	Pass	Points		Rush	Pass	Points
GB	115.6 (14th)	287.7 (6th)	24.8 (13th)		120.9 (22nd)	225.0 (5th)	24.0 (16th)
Sea	152.2 (1st)	195.9 (27th)	24.3 (15th)		118.6 (18th)	228.3 (7th)	21.3 (9th)

The chart above shows Seattle has the edge rushing when on offense vs the Packers’ 22^nd ranked run D.  What that tells me is the Packers must get out to a fast start, or at least a lead to force Seattle’s hand to pass.  Green Bay shows to have the 5^th best defense vs the pass, while the Seahawks struggle.

There are 2 factors to Green Bay having a much-improved pass defense, aside from the spectacular play of rookie CB Jaire Alexander, the Packers are tied for the league lead in sacks (31.0), while having an awful depth of edge rushers…the Packers’ D line combined with the scheme of Mike Pettine to bring pressure from multiple angles, it’ll be interesting to see if they can spy Wilson, who gained significant yards on crucial downs last week in Los Angeles.  While it’s not good to root for players to get injured, the ankle injury of Kentrell Brice might be what the Packers’ secondary needed…an opportunity to get Josh Jones on the field.  While #27 (Jones) has multiple mental errors, he usually makes them while being aggressive and also has superior athleticism and has come close to being a game-changer as recently as last week.

Preview— as for the history, if you plan on watching this game (and why wouldn’t you if you’re reading this? Or maybe you don’t need to watch if you’re reading this…???) the pregame will cover the history of these ball clubs at nausea.  With Aaron Rodgers not playing up to the bar he set, he’s still plenty effective enough to win games if McCarthy (or Rodgers, who knows) sticks to the run game and can allow misdirection and play action.  The main issue with this game is the long travel on short-rest.  Of the 10 games played on Thursday Night Football, the home team has won 7 of those match-ups.  If the Packers play a clean game, stick to the run, play from under center, and take a few aggressive shots, they should be able to take this one, possibly handedly.  Then again, McCarthy has rarely showed to do any of those, let alone all 4…I’ll take Seattle.

Packers 21
Seahawks 27

38-23

 

 

Big Picture— it’s getting tougher and tougher to figure out the major issue with this Packer team.  There’s been plenty of talk about the head coach needing to go, which has been overdue for some time, however trying to put your finger on what’s going on is quite difficult.

Talent?—do the Packer just not have enough talent as their opponents?  Say that’s the case, and Rodgers isn’t playing well to his standards (yes his stats look fine, but he’s missed quite a few throws, which are compounded in losses), then to say the Packers have competed well vs the Rams and Patriots would lend to them being well-prepared…coaching.

Coaching?—Tom Brady said something to the effect after the game that it seemed like the Packers had to struggle for every yard.  That seemed to be the case since 2014, and that is coaching/game-planning/scheming.  The concept McCarthy’s offense is based on is brilliant, until it’s decoded, which it seems to have been for 3+ years now.  There are no plays designed in order to get anyone open, it’s all matchup, so if the opponent is foolish enough to play zone, then it’s on the pass catchers to find the opening, or Rodgers can throw them open.  When the defense plays Cover 2 Man (2 safeties deep, splitting the field in half, the other 9 players in man coverage all underneath, pending how many are rushing, likely 4), if the Packers’ WRs can shake their defender, it’s going to be tough to have anyone streaking wide open.  The Patriots do a great job of scheming to get people open…hell, EVERYONE does a better job than the Packers at that.  They’ve become too reliant on the WRs athleticism and Rodgers’ accuracy and haven’t adapted to the opponents’’ schemes vs them.  The brilliant part is, when it works, it’s almost indefensible, see 2011 when teams would play zone vs the Packers 5-wide set, Green Bay shredded records and went 15-1, then ultimately got punched and out-coached in the playoffs by the Giants, who played a cover 2 man defense…mmm…

There’s definitely something brewing here, and the worst part is it seems the players almost don’t care, at least the older ones: Rodgers; Cobb.  The 7-year vet was quoted saying, “We’ve lost games before here, but this just feels different,” wide receiver Randall Cobb said, per ESPN’s Rob Demovsky. “And it doesn’t feel good. It’s not fun. But we’ve got to figure something out.

“We definitely need some momentum, we need to get a win. … Very frustrating and it’s tough. Because I know what we’re capable of and we’re not there. I don’t know what it is, but we’ve got to find a way to get it done.”

The Packers seem to have taken over as the Milwaukee Bucks as far as Wisconsin sports go…full on apathy is setting in.  This goes back to a comment I don’t think I’ll ever forget, from Bill Simmons, 5 years ago moments before the Bucks selected Giannis Antetokounmpo, “Ahh yes, now the Milwaukee Bucks…saying this team being stuck in neutral would be a compliment.”  Then the Bucks chose the rawest player available, but with the absolute highest ceiling and Simmons followed that move up with, “this is the perfect draft choice for this organization.  They have been striving for mediocrity forever, so they have the time to let this kid develop without the pressure of having to win.”  I’m paraphrasing the 2^nd quote, but the reason I bring this up is the then-GM, John Hammond, made a decision to make the right draft choice even though the owner, Herb Kohl, always wanted to win now.  It wasn’t until the entire organization got on the same page—Owner, GM, and Head Coach—all were on the same plan and timetable to build a winner.  Also see the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Packers seem to be “stuck in neutral.”  While many would say they’ve been “winning a lot,” and have had “a lot of success,” I’m cut from the mold of needing to win championships to be considered successful.  While the Packers have been to the playoffs 9 times since Mike McCarthy has taken over, they’ve only won the Super Bowl once.  Also, the notion of “get to the playoffs and with Aaron Rodgers you always have a chance” sounds good, apparently that’s not the case.

Review—if you’re still with me, you must be devoted as much as I am to this team.  The Packers played pretty well until the Aaron Jones fumble.  I get the sense of benching a player when making a mistake, but not at this point of his career and not at this point of your coaching tenure, Mike McCarthy.  The only reason the Packers were in this game was Aaron Jones’ production/touch.  They guy had 4-points of ball security and still lost it, so let’s punish him for being the most-productive player on the team and NOT being careless.  Either way, I don’t think the outcome changes much.  If the Packers go down and score a touchdown, they still leave Brady and the Pats about 3+ minutes, at home, to score…pretty much inevitable.  Then it’s to OT, which I’d then give the nod to the Pats, but however, still needed to find a way to win that game.

The Packers moved their rankings/stats in the wrong direction on all accounts.

1. 45 yards less than their average
2. 92 yards given up more than their average
3. 8 points less than average
4. 6 points more than avg.

The Packers did score TDs on more than 50% of their red zone trips (2 for 3), the issue was they only got to the red zone 3 times.  That’s an issue, but what’s new?

Preview— enter the 5-4 Miami Dolphins.  They see themselves as the 7^th seed in the AFC playoff picture, so they’re right there as the current 6 seed (Cincinnati) is struggling and has a tough game vs New Orleans today.  Even though the Packers are 9.5 point favorites, with the current state of the locker room, this will likely be a tough match-up.  Plus, keep in mind, Brock Osweiler (Mia QB today) lit up the Chicago Bears in week 6.  It’s very possible for him to repeat that feat.  I believe the last match-up (Dec 2016 vs Houston) the Packers held the Texans to 13 points in snowy, cold Lambeau.  The Packers defense could and should show up to hold the Fins under 20 points.  Meanwhile it should be good conditions for the offense to light up the scoreboard…if there ever was a time to be motivated and come out and unload, today is that day—it’s also likely the last time a McCarthy-led Packers squad will do so.

Match-up—

Team	Offense		Defense
	Yards	Points	Yards	Points
Miami	315.8 (28th)	20.8 (24th)	394.0 (26th)	25.0 (19th)
Green Bay	406.6  (6th)	24.0 (14th)	352.4 (16th)	25.5 (21st)

As you can see the Packers hold the advantage in each category, so this should mean the Packers roll, right?  Yes…should being the operative word.  Everything for the remainder of the season will depend on whether the Packers can get up and play for their Head Coach—it seems that players, beginning with Rodgers, have given up on this team/season, so again it’s time for the Head Coach to go.  Unfortunately, even with a loss today, the Packers can’t make a change with their next game coming on Thursday night in Seattle.

Prediction—I think the Packers come out strong and are aggressive, which will lead to some early points/production.  It’ll be a 2-3 score game until late 4^th quarter and the Packers will need a drive to make it a 2-score game again.

Dolphins 20
Packers 30

37-23: The Packers should get back on track, but if they lose, it shouldn’t be shocking as it seems the team just doesn’t care and are in obvious need of a change in voice.

 

 

As this week has progressed, it seems like the Packers, as an organization overall, are searching for an identity.  There’s been change, but just enough to talk about, not really a ton to shake things up…so it feels.  There’s the uber-talented aging Quarterback that’s under-accomplished.  The Head Coach whose stubbornness allowed him to achieve success, and since has only held team away from accomplishing further.  A fan base that’s torn between appreciation of “success.”  Maybe this is a bigger/different topic for another day, but with the trades of Ty Montgomery and HaHa Clinton-Dix this week (both needed for different reasons) it seems like there’s a partial commitment to something, I’m just not sure as to what it is.  Anyway, let’s carry on.

Review—cripes!!!!!!! For as much as I gripe about the Quarterback (mainly postseason stuff), it seemed like the Rams left too much time for Rodgers and the Packers to score.  What I mean by that is with 2:04 and a timeout left, I believe the Packers could’ve scored a TD and left too much time for LA to respond with another score of their own, no joke.  Again, for as critical as I am of Rodgers, all he does is dominate situations like these in the regular season.  Two minutes, 4 seconds, with the 2-minute warning and a timeout at his disposal…we’ve seen Rodgers lead late-game drives, twice this season (week 2 v Min & week 6 v SF), with one resulting in a missed GW field goal attempt and another resulting in a made GW field goal attempt.  I believe in week 2, there were 0:32 with no timeouts and in week 6 a little over a minute with ZERO timeouts.  Either way, that would’ve been a win to swing the lost feeling this team currently holds.

It seemed like the Packers played a pretty complete game, however they didn’t win any of the key stat departments: yards; red zone efficiency; turnovers.  With all of that, if you eliminate the bonehead kick return by Montgomery, it’s likely the Packers win, or at least drive down and score to take the lead.  Frustrating doesn’t begin to describe.  The positive is there’s room for improvement, a lot, and the Packers can absolutely play with the best of the best, on the road.  Better start winning those games, now!

HaHa Clinton-Dix: The other bright side is General Manager, Brian Gutekunst.  There have been mumblings of HaHa Clinton-Dix not wanting to be here, also showed by his lack of effort in weeks 16 and 17 last year, and he’s just not the player the national media plays him out to be.  My guess is he’ll kind of vanish into the mold of Washington…which begs the question: Was he regarded as a high-quality safety because he was surrounded by trash in Green Bay?  Answer: very possible.  Either way, he didn’t want to be here, so see ya!  Might as well get something for him.  The question of who will be taking his reps has already been answered, veteran CB Tramon Williams.  I’d like to see Josh Jones (Gutey’s guy) get as many reps as possible, it seems this is the safest play since Tramon knows the playbook and when trying to win now, you want players that know where to be, especially at safety.  I still want to find out if Josh Jones is the real deal, which we may not find out.

Ty Montgomery: I’ve been a Monty guy, not a hard advocate, ‘nor a strict defender of his…but he struck me as a bright kid, well-spoken, and wanted to put the team first (move from WR to HB).  However, regardless for the reason he took the kickoff out of the end zone (none, absolutely none), the Packers actually showed balls by sending him packing and again, got something in return for a guy they likely weren’t resigning.  Two birds actually- the packers got a return for someone they normally wouldn’t have AND on a more important note, were able to send a message.  Actions > words.  Bravo!  As for taking Monty’s reps, hopefully all go to Aaron Jones.  He keeps putting up great numbers and yet everyone still questions why he doesn’t get more touches.  Incredible.

Preview—ok, so where to go from here?  I heard on a sports radio show earlier this week, Michael Cohen (writer for the Athletic) stated, “This team could go in one of 2 directions after a loss like that.  This could galvanize them, they could come together and really build off it and accomplish something.  Or they could think ‘Wow, we played a great game and lost.’  Then come out flat as can be.”  I thought that was spot on.  The Patriots are 5 ½ point favorites as of Thursday, and while I think the Packers could come together from this experience – not to mention eliminating two players that seemed to be messing up the locker room and weren’t wanted – I think Tom and the Patriots might be too much to handle.

McCarthy vs Belicheck: Mac turned around an aging QB (Favre) to play, possibly, his best football.  Belicheck is arguably, if not easily, the best coach of all-time- let’s take a look at their head-to-head matchups.

1. November 19^th, 2006: Patriots W 35-0. I believe Favre got hurt that game (aka didn’t want to return) and Rodgers even came in, and looked just as bad as Brett was.  Outclassed, outmanned, outplayed.
2. December 19^th, 2010: Patriots W 31-27. This was Matt Flynn’s coming-out party.  Flynn actually had Green Bay up 10 midway through the 2^nd quarter, however the long kick return by the Patriots’ OL completely swung momentum and the Packers fell.
3. November 30^th, 2014: Packers W 26-21. The only matchup between Brady and Rodgers.  What a game it was. I was fortunate enough to be in attendance and it had a playoff-type feel to it.  Both 12s played well, but Rodgers outdueled Brady and closed the game with the ball, after running out the final 2:40.  What stood out to me was the amount of red zone trips that resulted in field goals, ALL OF THEM!

If the Packers come out and win this game, which feels like a must-win, then they’ll actually have to start scoring TDs on red zone trips, ideally more than the 50% clip they’ve shown all year—or find a way to hang 34+ points on the board.

Matchup—let’s take a look at the stat rankings.

	Yards		Points
	Off	Def	Off		Def
GB	412.1 (5)	340.9 (12)	25.0 (13)	24.7 (17)
NE	381.9 (11)	382.8 (25)	29.9 (4)	23.1 (12)

See the above rankings show the Packers have no issue moving the ball up and down the field, however have an issue converting that movement into points, ala red zone struggles.  The same was the case in 2014 when these teams met.  For example, if the Packers make 5 trips to the red zone, they’ll have to find a way to settle, and I truly mean settle for 3 TDs on those trips.  On the other side, the Patriots are very efficient when they move the ball.  Holding them to field goals upon reaching the red zone will be absolutely crucial.

Prediction—I think the Packers come out and play strong, pretty much all game, but the Packers embarrassing pass rush eventually costs them by letting Brady dictate the game down the stretch.

Packers 24
Patriots 27

36-23: sadly I was right; again hoping I’m wrong, GO PACK GO!

Well, now that the Brewers are finished, the bye week has passed, and the weather has changed to full-time fall – we can now shift our complete focus to the Packers, right?  Let’s take a look to see if Mac and the Quarterback learned.

Review—the craptastic San Francisco 49ers came to town and completely outplayed, out-schemed and damn near out-executed the Packers.  That was a coaching clinic on how to prepare an inferior team to go into a hostile environment of a superior team that was in a must-win situation.  Kyle Shanahan took a 3^rd string (2^nd on their roster, but 3^rd string quality) quarterback and punched Green Bay in the mouth, over and over.  He then went for the killshot which was the right call and throw, but Kevin King ended up making a great play for the interception.

San Francisco racked up 401 yards of total offense and hung 30 points against the (then ranked) 10^th defense in the league.  Like every other game, aside from week 4 vs Buffalo, the Packers’ defense played poorly for one half, but then tightened up for another.  If that’s going to be the plan all year, the Packers better build a lead of at least 2 scores so that doesn’t catch up to them.

On the flip side, the Packers rolled up 521 yards of offense for themselves, which is quite impressive, and were able to punch it in the end zone on 3 occasions out of the 12 possessions.  Maybe good enough vs a bad team at home, but against good or great teams, that will have to be at least 3, likely 4 TDs to win—especially given the defense will play piss-poor for at least a 30-minute stretch.

Preview—enter the Los Angeles Rams.  LA is the last remaining undefeated, 7-0, and are the clear-cut “best” team in the NFL…as of now.  Let’s take a look at the statistical rankings:

The Rams bring the 2^nd offense and 7^th defense (yards), 3^rd offense and 4^th defense (points) vs Green Bay’s 4^th O and 8^th D (yards), 16^th O, 15^th D (points).  I believe the points are a better indicator of what the Packers are, this year.  Usually the national pundits go by yards, because it’s supposed to show how much they give up throughout the game and eliminates the offense giving/getting a short field.  Either way, the Rams outclass (get used to that word when talking about the Packers’ coaching staff) Green Bay in every department.  When looking for advantages, even at each position, the Packers are inferior…even at QB – again when looking at stats, and production.  Does Goff have more help?  Yes, both with talent on the field and coaching.  McCarthy used to be great, but hasn’t adjusted since 2014 when his concept-based offense was figured out by the opposition and regardless of the cause for lack of production, there hasn’t been change.

Again, the combination of Mac and Rodgers ran #33 a total of 8 times.  8 carries for a guy that was averaging over 6 yards/carry, now has a total of 32 rushes for 188 yards (5.9 average).  If the Packers want to even compete on Sunday, they should run early and often.  If they’re able to set the tone in the ground game, that should make Aaron Rodgers damn near unstoppable, especially with play-action.  Of course winning the turnover battle gives any team an 80% chance to win vs any other team, but I believe this game will come down to the Packers 1. Controlling the ball (winning time of possession), thus keeping McVey’s potent offense off the field vs the Packers’ hot & cold D and 2. Converting >50% of their red zone trips for TDs.  The Packers rank 21^st in red zone efficiency (amount of trips to the red zone that result in a TD, currently they’re 50%).

All in all, I think the Rams have the better head coach, roster, and home field.  The only thing Green Bay has is experience in big games, which this is for the Packers, however that’s not enough to overcome the train of Gurley III (didn’t even mention him, the best HB in the league) and McVey’s mind/scheme.

Packers 27
Rams 38

35-23: if Green Bay plays a near perfect game, they could win. Which if they do, then the NFL has the most parody in quite some time, but I won’t bet on it.

For as poorly as the Packers played in Detroit, somehow the Lions tried losing by just being flat out terrible.  What does that mean?  Either the Packers are good and don’t play to their level or the Lions are straight trash and Green Bay somehow couldn’t win, or both?

Review—to see how much the Packers “outplayed” the Lions, looking at every stat will show it.  Green Bay had 30 first downs to Detroit’s 18, & 521 total yards to the Lions’ 264.  Turnovers, missed Field Goals, and stalled drives did in the Green & Gold.  Giving any team 17 free points, especially on the road, makes it damn near impossible to win a game.  Safe to assume if any team has that many miscues, and the refs miss a blatantly obviously turnover (punt off King after the opening drive), that’ll result in a loss.

Enough to say, if the Packers play a sound game, at least without terrible turnovers, they should be most teams.  The defense didn’t shut down Detroit, by any means, but at least managed the game almost as well as they could from the positions they were put in.  Again, the main frustration would be the lack of playing time/snaps Aaron Jones, HB #33, received, especially with his production.  Even if he doesn’t play b/c he can’t pass block, the offense moves the ball with ease and he produces, not sure why he isn’t run into the ground at this point.

Preview—enter the Jimmy G-less San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night.  San Fran brings the 10^th ranked defense in yards, 29^th in points.  Green Bay matches up their 10^th ranked offense (18^th in points) vs that, so they should be able to move the ball at will, but is that enough to punch the ball in the end zone?  That’s the key, the Packers didn’t punt last week, so not to give up a ton of opportunities, will likely result in a bunch of points and more wins.

The 9ers’ defense is 10^th in yards, 29^th in points—not sure what to pull from that aside from them likely turning the ball over or giving their opponents’ short fields.  The Packers bring the 10^th rated offense and 18^th in points…so they’re the antithesis- not taking advantage of TDs when getting close.  Bunch of yards, minimal points…Green Bay needs to punch it in more often to get rolling and begin to build something.

What does this all mean?  I don’t know, maybe give #33 the ball a bunch more, run the offense from under center and don’t turn the ball over.  Pretty easy.

49ers 13
Packers 24

34-23, time to get back on track…really tough schedule coming up!

 

Review – That could’ve been one of the most complete games the Packers have played in quite some time, except for the QB calling out his head coach’s gameplan.  The Packers’ 22-0 victory was encouraging to say the least, considering the Bills went into Minnesota the week prior and smacked around the Vikings.  As for the defensive gameplan, Mike Pettine obviously kept rookie QB, Josh Allen, in the pocket and forced him to make the proper read and throw to beat him.  Safe to say that was the best plan of attack.

The Packers held Buffalo to a total of 145 yards of offense, which is just incredible, even if it is the Bills.  Hopefully that’s something Green Bay can build from moving forward as they’re about to see a much tougher schedule.

Preview—moving to Detroit, one of the most puzzling teams to figure out in the NFL.  The Lions have 3 losses, yet their 1 win came against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.  Even if Matt Patricia (Detroit’s new head coach) came from New England, that still doesn’t make sense.  For those that have followed the Packers for quite some time, there’s no need to inform you that Detroit has frustrated the Packers over the course of the last two decades…or at least Green Bay doesn’t play nearly as well there as they do in Lambeau vs the Lions.

So how do the Packers matchup against the Lions?  Green Bay brings the 17^th ranked offense (19^th in points) into Detroit to face the 8^th ranked defense (24^th in points).  What does this mean?  Well with 2 of the top 3 WR targets in doubt for Green Bay, leaving a possible Davante Adams and 3 rookie Wide receivers + so far unreliable Jimmy Graham and Lance Kendricks as pass-catchers, it hopefully means a lot more Aaron Jones, which will open up the play action game and allow Aaron Rodgers to be, potentially, lethal.  Aaron Jones, HB #33, has 17 carries for 107 yards…that’s good enough for a 6.3 yards/carry—that tells me the Packers need to find a way to bring that avg. down.  Why do I want that avg. down you may ask?  Because if he’s getting 20-25 carries/game, Jones won’t be getting 6+ yards/carry, and if he does, problem solved!!!

As for the other side of the ball, Detroit has the 11^th ranked offense (18^th in points) matching up against the Packers’ 6^th ranked defense (11^th in points).  As for pure rankings, it seems these teams are somewhat even, and when that’s the case I look at the Quarterback and Head Coach matchup.  I think that sways in the Packers’ favor in each dept., even if many are ready for the Packers to move on from Mike McCarthy (I’m fine with it if that’s the case), Patricia is still an unknown and 2 other things: 1. He got blasted by a bad Jets team at home; 2. Belicheck’s coaching tree is anything but impressive.

Look for the Packers to keep the ball in front of them, meaning not let any big plays over the top, and force Stafford to small-ball them to death.  If that’s the case, he’ll likely throw the Packers the ball a few times and if the Packers win the turnover battle, it should be over.

Overall— it’ll likely be a battle, with possibly the Packers jumping out to a 2-score lead and be tied late in the 4^th with Rodgers looking to make a drive/play to clinch it.  I’m thinking Mason Crosby (somewhat) redeems himself from his miss vs Minnesota, and nails a game-winner.

Packers 27
Lions 24

34-22, overall record.

Review—well that was the epitome of a clunker.  The Packers came out uninspired and seemed almost drained from their effort the week prior.  The Quarterback could’ve played better, but hit enough throws to keep the ball moving down the field, but the overall mistakes were far too great and frequent to overcome.  The multiple drops by, usually reliable, Randall Cobb that all seem to come on crucial 3^rd downs.  Aaron Rodgers’ top target, Davante Adams had a killer drop as well—let’s not forget the game-altering drop by Lance Kendricks that too would’ve changed the complexion of the game, and easily the outcome.  Lastly, I promise (this is how bad it was), the Kentrell Brice experiment, I hope, has run its course.  The guy can tackle, but as for knowing where to be and ball skills, he’s cost Green Bay 2 wins AND Mohammad Wilkerson’s career in Green Bay.  It’s hard to imagine Jermaine Whitehead or Raven Greene being worse.  They’re at least worth finding out…it appears that’s one of 3 areas of major concern for this organization- followed by Offensive Line depth, and Pass Rushers.

Green Bay now sits with the 18^th (14^th points) ranked offense and 23^rd (point too) ranked defense.  All too familiar ground for this organization since the 2010 season.  The encouraging thing is that this team plays near lights out defense for halves at a time, but unfortunately that’s only been good enough to win 1 of 3 games, and that won’t cut it.  The offense isn’t innocent either, but since the QB was hobbled, the short-passing game is quite effective.  However, like in week 2, there are too many drives that stall, so hopefully McCarthy (and Rodgers) stick to the running game with the return of Aaron Jones, who seems to be the back that can thrive with the QB like Rodgers and in the offense like Mac’s.  Enough about the mistake-riddled week 3, on to Buffalo.

Preview—the Packers will don their throwback uniforms and welcome the Buffalo Bills, who are coming off a throttling of the Minnesota Vikings, in Minneapolis.  The Bills could not have looked worse in their week 1 game vs Baltimore and in week 2

24^th (10^th in points) ranked Defense and 31^st (29^th in points) ranked Offense.  So the Packers have a good match-up, or at least a prime opportunity to improve their rankings on each side of the ball and instill confidence in themselves (or at least some of the fan base) moving forward after getting out of the first quarter of the season.  The next 4 games, after week 4, prove to be quite difficult and with the tie vs Minnesota acting as a loss, it’s imperative Green Bay finds a way to win this game vs Buffalo and to then go 3-1 in those games…so a 6-1-1 record in the 1^st half of the season at least gives them a chance for a top 2 seed in the NFC playoff seeding.

Prediction Time– Last checked, Green Bay are 9.5 point favorites, which sounds about right.  The Bills bring in a rookie QB (Josh Allen) that brings a cannon-arm, but also is going to give his opponent plentiful opportunities for interceptions, whether the Packers can capitalize on those occurrences may be the difference between a win and a loss.  Green Bay can’t afford to have another clunker of a game, they’re just not that talented, or at least not there yet to win games by playing average.

Look for the Packers to showcase the same offense they have as of recent, pistol formation with quick passes and hopefully quite a bit more rush attempts for #33.

Bills 21
Packers 27

33-22— getting through the 1^st quarter of the season with a 2-1-1 record wouldn’t be a success, but it at least puts the Packers in position to build on success and create some momentum heading into the thick of the season.

Looking far ahead, because that’s what fans (can) do.  Assuming Green Bay can beat up on the Bills tomorrow, they will travel to Detroit, which will be tough, but a must-win game (tiebreakers involved). Then come home for a much less-threatening game vs the Jimmy G-less 49ers for a Monday night showdown.  Of these next 3 games, 4-1-1 is pretty much a must.  GO PACK GO!

It’s almost not worth covering, but much like the 2014 NFC title game in Seattle, the Packers had countless opportunities to close that game out and couldn’t.  In last week’s entry, I claimed that in “Rodgers + McCarthy have enough “winning” experience to pull through >50% in a close game, however, I just can’t bring myself to pick the Packers to win this game. “

Just the opposite happened, the Packers controlled the entire game, and when it got close, the Vikings made the plays needed to win, except a kick that would’ve actually determined a winner.  The Packers showed their inexperience in the defensive backfield (or lack of speed) after not responding following the atrocious “roughing the passer” call on Clay Matthews.  Captain Average marched down the field with little difficulty and tied the ball game, leaving 0:31 on the clock for Rodgers to lead his offense down only to have Mason not hit a clutch game-winner.  All in all it was a weird game that likely will come back to bite the Packers in playoff seeding.

The Vikings didn’t disrupt, as much as I thought, what the Packers wanted to do on offense.  Kudos to the gameplan, keeping the short passes and 3-step (pistol) drops in play to keep a rhythm, however, only 1 offensive TD, at home, won’t get it done.  The production must be better if this team has any chance of getting where they need to go.  However, overall that only led to one offensive TD and that won’t cut it at home, vs anyone.

As for the defense, a lot will be made of the Clay hit, however new Def Coordinator, Mike Pettine, was concerned with the lack of response by his defense.  There was still an 8 point lead, at home and roughly 55 yards left with under 1:30, but the Packers’ D gave up those 8 points in about a minute.  That’s the concerning thing (not sure if it’s more concerning than the NFL taking tackling out of the game, but that’s an entirely different issue).  Much like the 2014 NFC title game in Seattle, there were a slew of plays that could’ve been made to ice this game, but in the end, neither team deserved to win so justly there was a tie.

Enter the Washington Redskins.  1-1 and coming off an awful performance vs the Indianapolis Colts, the Skins don’t really pose much of a threat, on either side of the ball.  They bring the 27^th ranked offense and 2^nd ranked defense which might be fool’s gold.  They’ve played Arizona Cardinals and Indianapolis Colts—both teams are heaping piles of garbage, so the fact they’re ranked so low on offense and high on defense is quite misleading.  The low ranking on offense is very embarrassing and the Packers shouldn’t have too tough a time keeping them under 20 points…unless Kevin King is that big of a lynch pin to this defense, which is an entirely different issue altogether.  The Packers’ offense should be able to move the ball consistently and hang 30 points, with their QB getting into a rhythm and constantly keeping the pressure on Alex Smith and the Skins.  Watch for the return of the Jonesssssss.  Both Aaron Jones (HB) and Josh Jones (S) should hopefully make their season debuts Sunday, along with rookie ILB Oren Burks.  While Washington doesn’t have a scary offense, they do possess Jordan Reed, an athletic TE that presents mismatches all over the field.  Look for Burks and/or Josh Jones to take him out of the game.

There’s always one game the Packers lose where they have no business doing so, I don’t see that being this game.  (Also, for clarification, I mean before the game, not completely controlling the Vikings game until Green Bay needed 2 missed OT field goals to not lose).  Since I wasn’t right in my call, I can’t count that as a win, so I’ll fly the L there.

Look for the Packer to incorporate Aaron Jones and hit the quick passing attack early and often, and for the Packers’ D to get a few stops.

Packers 31
Redskins 20

33-21

What was lost in the “magic” of last week’s comeback was the reason the Packers fell down 20-0 in the 3^rd quarter.  Calling the gameplan “suspect,” would be doing a disservice to OJ’s status in the murder trial in 1994 (too soon?).  McCarthy opened the game with a couple of runs with some good gains, then completely bailed on any formation that would offer deception (5-wide) and subsequently shot his team in the foot.  Momentum, gone.  The Packers over the past few years have shown to start games off strong.  Mac’s gameplan tested the Bears to see if and how they’d use Khalil Mack—which was (without hindsight) dumb.

As for Mike Pettine’s newfound defense…the first series seemed all too familiar from the Dom Capers’-led defenses of the last 9 years.  However, upon seeing Nagy’s offense (Chicago’s new head coach, former OC from Kansas City), the defense tightened up.  So much that the packers gave up 294 yards total. After getting dominated on the first two possessions, the newly led defense progressively improved ultimately saving their best for last…overcoming the ultimate bonehead play by 10-year vet, Clay Matthews, and turning the ball over on downs.  Should Green Bay avg. 294 yards given up/game, that’d land them 4th in yards last year.  Based on math alone, Rodgers converts top 5 defenses into a Super Bowl victory 50% of the time…

Currently on the season, Rodgers ranks 17^th with a rating of 64.2 from ProFootballFocus.com.  Many (if not all) would argue the value of ranking/grading, however over the course of the season it’s pretty objective and consistent among all players.  What it doesn’t take into account is the fact that QBs (Rodgers for this example) throws to his WRs with the idea they can make a play, it’s how the offense is designed.  So technically he gets “dinged” on those grades sometimes.  Either way, there’s zero chance the Packers win without him, or that throw to Allison…yeah buddy!

Let’s move on to the next opponent: Minnesota.  Since 1992 (Favre’s first season playing) the Vikings have been the main rival to Green Bay.  The defending NFC North champions (as if that’s an accomplishment, oh wait, it is for 3 teams…) bring the 2^nd and 3^rd ranked DTs to the Packers’ woeful OL Sunday.  Mike Zimmer (Min’s head coach) loves to jam the middle of the opposition’s OL, and that’s the Packers’ weakness on offense: Taylor (66.6); Linsley (59.8); McCray (68.4).  Minnesota hold the strong advantage vs the Packers and that could stymie the ground attack that McCarthy desperately needs to establish if he wants to come out victorious.  The rest of the Vikings defense didn’t’ score all that well (source: PFF), Linval Joseph (89.9) and Sheldon Richardson (89.8) pose a serious problem, but if the Packers can mimic the gameplan from the 2^nd half of the Bears game, there’s a real chance they could control the entire game, and score more points than their opponent (yay! 🙂 ).

Kirk Cousins, nicknames Captain Kirk from the great William Shatner, otherwise I call him “Captain Average,” was just that, 71.4 (11^th) vs. a bad 49er defense.  If the Packers can create a little pressure or disguise coverage, there’s a chance they could create a couple interceptions, and if one could go for 6 that might be the difference needed to win the game.

Overall—there’s part of me that thinks Rodgers + McCarthy have enough “winning” experience to pull through >50% in a close game, however, I just can’t bring myself to pick the Packers to win this game.  I’ll be there to lose my voice and cheer them on, doing my part, but hopefully I’m wrong.

Vikings 23
Packers 20

33-20: win this and 2-0 with a bunch of tiebreakers would set the best tone for a season to build on!!!!!!!!!!

Bear week.  Since 1992 it’s seemed to account for an automatic 1.75 wins/year for Green Bay.  Will it be that way again?  Let’s take a look.

Chicago—if you haven’t heard, you’re likely not reading this, but the Bears acquired Khalil Mack, arguably the best defensive player in the NFL.  Chicago already had a top 10 defense (9^th) a season ago and with adding Mack, likely will only improve.  The Bears are the latest team to follow the trend of trying to build a winner around (what they think is) a talented QB before having to pay him QB $.  From what we saw of Mitch Trubisky a season ago left a lot to be desired.  Many Chicago sportscasters/writers claim his instincts from the tape they watched on him at UNC were “great.” However, 2 of the three sacks he took from Nick Perry last year stick in my mind that were automatic throw aways without being under duress and he still found a way to take a sack, twice.  Of course QBs can (and do) grow, however I’ll be skeptical on Mitchell’s growth until I see it…at least enough growth to turn Chicago into a title contender.

Green Bay—the return of Aaron Rodgers is obviously a difference-maker between making the postseason and being a 7-9 ball club.  The optimist in me says that was a great thing as it cleaned most of the house (Ted, Capers, etc.), but 2 of the 3 remain: QB; Head Coach.  Hopefully new Defensive Coordinator, Mike Pettine, can have the impact like he did in NY when he was with the Jets…those were some solid defenses that were QB’d by an atrocious player, Mark Sanchez.  As for this game, look for the Packers to disguise their pressure, but to get after the 2^nd year man (Trubisky) and force his decision-making to his 1^st or 2^nd read in hopes that the zone is tight and they can pick him off a couple of times.

As for how this game goes, for some reason I think it’ll be like the regular season game from 2016 vs the NY Giants.  The Packers won 23-16, but Rodgers threw 2 TDs with 2 INTs, very un-Rodgers-like, but the defense was able to keep Eli out of the end zone for the most part and essentially win the game.  I think this game will resemble that…the Bears have a solid defense, and the Packers have talent on the defensive-side of the ball, since it’s the regular season and no impact of weather, I’ll trust the better QB to take care of the ball at times where it matters and to make a few more throws in key situations.

Bears 16
Packers 23

Record: 32-20…Go Pack Go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!