Review~ 3 main factors came from the Game of the Year:

1. Gameplan—absolutely brilliant.  It was so good that it wasn’t executed all that well, but it was such a good plan that if the 7 plays within the Cardinals’ 3-yard line netted more than 3 points, this would’ve been a Packers decisive victory.
   1. Of the 72 total plays, 34 were rush attempts (56% of the total yards)
      1. Aaron Jones had 22 touches (26 targets), 110 yards, 1 TD
      1. A.J. Dillon: 16 touches; 78 yards
2. Time of Possession.  Green Bay held the ball for 37:35 compared to Arizona’s 22:25. Sure Arizona had a chance to steal a victory at the end, had the Touchdown stood on that Packers’ last drive and/or they just pounded A.J. Dillon a bunch on any/all of those 7 plays within the Cardinals’ 3-yard line, this is a 10 to 14-point Packer victory.
3. Game Decider: +3 on the turnover ledger. 
   1. Muffed punt resulted in 3 points (easily should’ve been 7).
   1. Henry Black INT on the 1^st possession of the 2^nd half resulted in a TD toss to Cobb.
   1. INT in the end zone by newly found hero, Rasul Douglas (#29).

Preview~ well, to borrow the phrase from sports radio host, Steve Czaban, “We get a ‘Sneak Peek’ into the future.”  This is an almost ideal situation for Jordan Love to gain some much-needed experience.  It’s a regular season game, a big one, coming off a bunch of rest (Thu night previous game), heading into a marquee matchup against, quite possibly, the hungriest team in the NFL.  Let’s see what the kid can bring…

It’s a No-Lose scenario for Green Bay.

1. Green Bay has their backup QB playing, who’s never started.
2. Kansas City is hungry and needs to begin winning games.
3. Since the Packers aren’t supposed to win, a victory would send yet another message to the entire league – also, if Love can pull out a W in Arrowhead against Mahomes, that would be something.
4. If Love struggles, so what…he’s technically supposed to…see, “Can’t Lose Scenario.”

Highlighting off the above, Kansas City ain’t right.  Something is off and it’s tough to point just to the horrid defense.  Mahomes has been a turnover machine and if those 2 things keep up, the Packers very well could come out of there with a victory. 

As stated above, the Packers are coming off an extended week of rest from their Thursday night game, and Kansas City is on short rest after struggling mightily with the awful Giants on Monday night. 

Matchup~

While Green Bay’s offense isn’t high-ranking (mostly due to the week 1 No Show), it still has the advantage in every category vs. Kansas City’s dreadful Defense.  There’s an obvious difference in the Packers’ offense this week, but if they keep with the run game, win the time of possession AND turnover battle (just like in Arizona last week), Green Bay should come out on top. 

Kansas City’s offensive line is still giving them issues dating back to Super Bowl LV when Tampa harassed Patrick Mahomes.  If the Packers can generate a pass rush with 4-5 whilst keeping the run game in check – side note: Kansas City averages 24.2 rush attempts/game which ranks 21^st – so rushing the passer and defending the homerun ball becomes paramount.  Make Kansas City be patient and methodically drive down the field (that’s actually the best formula to defend any team not quarterbacked by Tom Brady) and there will be quite a few mistakes made, just be sure to catch the INT and fall on the loose ball when the opportunity arises.

Seeing the turnover differential is the main component as to why the Kansas City Chiefs are 4-4, and if they weren’t so talented could easily be 2-6…or worse.

To steal another one of Czabe’s phrases from this week (and I’m paraphrasing), “You’re gonna see (Love) make a boneheaded play, just dumbfounded play.  You’re gonna see a delay of game (surprise, we have that already with 12- that’s my line 😊).  However, you’re gonna see an example of (Love’s) arm talent.  The Packers are gonna hang and bang with the Chiefs.  It’ll be close.”

I thought that was a great take on what to “expect” in a game where I can’t imagine anyone has a true/good feeling as of what’ll take place.  I was off on last week’s prediction, but was thoroughly impressed with Rodgers’ commitment and execution of the gameplan—and he didn’t execute it all that well (LaFleur will get judged by me for not pounding Dillon every play, let alone once on the 7 goal line plays), but still overall great plan.

The fan in me tells me Green Bay pulls this out.  The realist in me tells me Mahomes and the Chiefs are too good and too desperate to drop a game to a QB making his first career start in Arrowhead.  Then again, desperation can lead to great play and it can lead to a boat load of mistakes.

Packers 24
Chiefs 27

*I have no clue as to how this will turn out.  I’d be shocked at nothing, in terms of outcome or how Love performs.  Hopefully he tears it up!  He could…so some may say I’m claiming this as to “Not be wrong,” but I’ll say “There’s no way I could be right, I think I covered everything.”

Season: 5-3
Overall: 74-39

Review~ while the Packers only ran 53 plays, this had a very odd feel for a regular season game.  There are 1-2 of those each season, and this seemed to fit the bill.  What’s odder, is the Packers only had 15 rush attempts of those 53 plays (28%), which is far under the desired ratio. 

• Aaron Jones: 11 touches
• A.J. Dillon: 4 touches (5 targets)
• Kylin Hill: 3 touches (4 targets)

Rodgers played well.  Tough to say how many runs he checked out of to quick-passes, however it was a few, at minimum.  On the touchdown drives, he did execute and seemed to be in complete control for the duration of the game. 

The defense gave up way too many rush yards, however there’s a reason for it.  95 yards came from the non-running/mobile QB, Taylor Heinicke.  He also played well, but his teammates let him down a handful of times and he made a poor decision on his lone interception (Chandon Sullivan). 

The defense did, essentially, ice the game coming up with 4 consecutive stops which turned complete control over to Rodgers & Co.  Again, solid win (nailed the margin of victory for a 3^rd consecutive week (jinx) so we’ll see).

Preview~ these are 2 of the best teams in the NFL, and should be a solid game, however if it gets sideways, it’ll likely be Arizona taking over control…here’s why.

Adams is likely to be OUT due to some sort of COVID-19 restriction, I’ll leave it all at that.

As you can see, the Cardinals are about as solid as a team can be.  Top-ranked scoring offense in the league, and 4^th ranked scoring defense.  It was sure to be a test heading in, however likely missing:

• #17 Adams
• #23 Alexander
• #55 Smith
• #69 Bakhtiari

…really makes this a tough ask.  However, if the Packers commit to the run game, and stick to it, there’s a shot to win the time of possession, wear that defense down, keep the game close, and have it come down to the last drive to have Rodgers make a throw for the win.  We’ll see, however, based on Arizona’s defense, they’re pretty stout everywhere.  Possibly force a turnover or 2 and capitalize on those.  Still a tough ask on a short week, on the road vs. the last-remaining unbeaten.

Packers 20
Cardinals 31

Season: 5-2
Overall: 74-38

Review~ it was the Jones & Dillon game, with appropriately-timed throws from Rodgers that led to a well-controlled 10-point victory.  Aaron Jones & A.J. Dillon accounted for 28 touches of the 57 total plays run by Green Bay (49%).  That leads to control of the football and even if the execution level is low, you still are able to dictate the outcome of the game, or at least the flow – which is precisely what occurred. 

The running backs accounted for 169 yards of the 323 total (52%), so that ratio is good…anytime you can account for more of a % of the production with a few percentages of the attempts, that’s good – if the team is rolling.  This is the Matt LaFleur offense us Packer fans have grown accustomed to, and is extremely productive.  It also keeps the defense off the field, which in turn helps the defense by putting so much pressure on the opposing offense to score and/or hold the ball…that added pressure only helps.

Also, the Refs blew about the equal number of calls both ways, which is sad b/c they’re still having far too much influence on the outcome of games across the NFL.  Sadly, I don’t think anything will change because (I’m guilty of it as well) we’re all watching at – or close to – record numbers.

The “I own you; I still own you” line was actually authentic and showed a sign of Rodgers I’ve been wanting since he last won the Super Bowl.  Let’s see if it carries into next week, next month, etc., but that’s not cocky, that type of emotion – when authentic – I classify under Determination.

Preview~ the Packers take on a football team that represent the Washington D.C. area.  Coming off a season with a very high-ranking defense, Washington has plunged to 31^st in total yards given up and dead last in points.  A great recipe to keep the momentum for the Packers to establish offensive dominance heading into the meat of their schedule.

Get things rolling early and often, get guys healthy and keep current players healthy and let’s roll into a short week with momentum. 

The one key matchup is to see how Elgton Jenkins (#74) handles Chase Young (#99).  Jenkins had his worst game of his career – coming back from injury – which is why I believe he struggled mightily, last week.  Young has the ability to be a game-wrecker, but if Green Bay continues to focus and run the offense through the running backs, it should be same $hit, different day.

Another one to keep an eye on is Was WR Terry McClaurin (#17).  He’s one of the NFL’s top Wideouts and matched up vs. a very banged up secondary – if Washington pulls off the upset, it’ll likely be from a couple of huge plays by #17.

WFT (WTF?) 24
Packers 38

Season: 4-2
Overall: 73-38

Review~ the game transpired about the way I thought it would, except for the kicking issues completely over-shadowing the entirety of the game.  Green Bay completely controlled the game, until the blown coverage/call on the long TD to Ja’Marr Chase right before half, which should’ve resulted in a Darnell Savage interception.  Yet, like 90% of the time, the better team won.  The better team also won the turnover battle, which may or may not have dictated the outcome.

What’s promising was the Packers put up 466 total yards vs. the 7^th ranked defense (in yards, giving up 323 coming into the game) on the road.  That came to 7.4 yards/play.  That’s great production, a testament to the gameplan and execution.  There were quite a few checkdowns, which I’ve been clamoring for for a while.  All 3 running backs touched the ball:

• Aaron Jones: 14 carries for 103 yards; 4 receptions on 5 targets for 6 yards; totaling 109 yards.
• A.J. Dillon: 8 carries for 30 yards; 4 receptions on 4 targets for 49 yards and a TD- 79 yards.
• Kylin Hill: 0 carries; 1 reception on 1 target for 5 yards.

That’s solid balance, the running backs produced 193 of the 466 total yards (41%) and garnered roughly 51% of the attention – 22 rushes and 10 targets, so 32 of the 63 plays. 

I’d like to see a few more rushes, but the 50% attention is really what I’m looking for, and believe that makes the QB’s job easier.  Hence the extreme production from Davante Adams (a career-high 206 receiving yards and a TD). 

Overall, a good win vs. a good team on the road.  Take it and run.

Preview~ now onto the rivalry matchup in Chicago.  The Bears actually have a winning record (3-2), and this creates a big matchup for the first time since the opening game of the 2018 season, where Rodgers mounted a great comeback – where the Bears were up 20-0 with 9:14 left in the 3^rd quarter.  Chicago eventually got to a point where they had a 97% chance of winning, until they didn’t.  Ok, fun time reminiscing, but onto 2021.

Chicago has, by far, the worst offense in the NFL.  This is a GREAT matchup for the Packers as Chicago focuses on running the ball (9^th in the NFL in yards/game), yet Green Bay is 10^th against the run.  If Green Bay can force rookie Justin Fields to win the game with his arm, it could be a double-digit Packer victory, and may not be that close if Green Bay can get up early and force a bunch of mistakes.  Also, having Matt Nagy try to outsmart everyone typically plays into the Bears’ opponents’ favor.

Guarding against being over-confident, the Packers did play fairly well in Cincinnati, and have been improving with each week.  Also, the offensive line is literally in shambles, yet is able to do its job and be borderline impressive.

Keep the running backs involved and open up everything else – this should equate to another victory.

Packers 23
Bears 13

Season: 3-2
Overall: 72-38

Review~ that was a solid team win vs. a hungry Pittsburgh team.  I hate complaining about officiating, yet again, the non-OPI call on the TD that Jaire “gave up” was obvious.  There’s a reason Jaire missed the ball, let alone was in prime position to intercept it, and came up empty?  Ok…

After that initial possession, Green Bay took over the game, and again owned the line of scrimmage—which allows the QB a large margin of error in order to win the game.  Rodgers does one thing really well…he’s turnover-adverse, especially in the regular season.  This fit well for how the team has performed over the last 3 weeks. 

Injuries are mounting up—which was inevitable based on the health of this team the previous 2 seasons, but with how loaded the roster truly is, they’ve been able to withstand them so far.  Losing Jaire Alexander for an extended period of time is crushing, considering he’s (arguably) the best corner in the NFL, and no, he didn’t “give up a TD on the first drive of the game,” but that’s already been covered (pun intended). 

Kenny Clark continues to receive zero recognition, other than the Packers extending him last year…he’s virtually unblockable with 1 offensive lineman, and vs. Pittsburgh was pushing double-teams into the backfield causing havoc—that too will be needed come January if this team wants to actually accomplish anything of significance (winning a Super Bowl). 

Lastly, the offensive line did more than hold their own, they created running spaces and the WRs (led by Allen Lazard) can block, and block extremely well.  There were multiple times where you saw Lazard (#13) and rookie Amari Rodgers (#8) blocking downfield, and giving the ball carrier plenty of opportunity to gain extra yards…often.  A great sign to see, and something that LaFleur’s offense which is predicated.

Preview~ While signing Stephon Gilmore would’ve been ideal, especially with the injury to Jaire Alexander, signing Jaylon Smith (formerly from the Cowboys) may be an even better addition for the long-term.  Smith is 26 years old, with likely his best football ahead of him.  Why many of the “experts” think he’s a replacement for Za’Darius Smith (edge rusher), Smith is a true Inside Linebacker (ILB), and can cover a decent amount.  Think of him as a far better Blake Martinez.  The guy is athletic, fast (4.44 forty-yard dash), and can tackle (154 tackles in 16 starts last year, avg. 139 tackles/season in the previous 3-full seasons, which he started all 16 games).  He could be an incredible pick-up for a defense that hasn’t had a GREAT inside linebacker since Desmond Bishop.  Hopefully he’ll get some snaps this week in Cincinnati, but likely will be inserted into the Krys Barnes slot of playing, and may be asked to rush the passer from all over the field.  Good players are easy to find methods in which to use…he’s one of those players.

Matchup~ the Packers’ and Bengals’ record (3-1 apiece) shows to be an accurate description of the strength of each team.  They’ve beaten lesser teams, and each team dropped a game (with hindsight) they probably shouldn’t have. 

As you can see, just based on rankings, the defenses have the edge for each team.  I think this may be the dictator for the outcome.  Again, turnovers.  Whichever team wins the turnover battle, that team will likely win the game.  With Rodgers being Turnover Adverse, that plays well into the Packers’ favor.  Also, the lone loss for the Bengals this year, Joe Burrow (#9) had interceptions on 3 consecutive passes.  Should anything like that occur, it’s hard to imagine the Packers not capitalizing on those and scoring 10-14 points, at least.  Also, that could be a 14-point swing.  The issue at hand is an obvious one…the Packers rank 24^th in the NFL with 7 total sacks – and 18^th vs QB passer rating (100.2).  That’s with Jaire Alexander…now remove the best corner in the NFL and all of a sudden, we have an issue.  Couple that with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase (#1) re-connecting from their LSU days, this could be the difference-maker in the game should Chase get free.  The Packers must get a pass rush and limit Cincy’s run game if they’re gonna come out of the Jungle a winner.

I think Rodgers makes 1-2 more plays (or less-killer plays) than the youngster Burrow.

Packers 23
Bengals 20

Season: 2-2
Overall: 71-38

Review~ Green Bay was the better team on Sunday Night.  It prevailed as well.  Not always does the Best Team win – however, in this case there was enough time to prove so.  The Packers had more yards (353 – 298), won the turnover battle (1 – 0), more sacks (4 – 1), and generally won the line of scrimmage.  Aside from QB-play, winning the line of scrimmage is the best determining factor in which team will win.  Winning the LOS battle does make it easier for the QB, so there’s that…

While I hate bitching about the refs, that’s the one area where San Francisco “won,” penalties.  There were ticky-tack upon ticky-tack calls – let’s not discuss Jaire Alexander’s “roughing” call…the Packers overcame the officials.  About as impressive a regular season win since their 9-0 shutout victory over the New York Jets in week 8 of the 2010 season. 

Preview~ speaking of that 2010 season, it culminated against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLV.  Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played the Steelers since that game, having missed both matchups due to breaking his collarbone in the 2013 and 2017 seasons.  Another storyline that Packer fans will over-focus on is the drafting of Kevin King over T.J. Watt.  While that’s an egregious miss (newsflash, every team has multiple of every draft), it’s mainly news because Watt is a local boy that went to UW.  It’s time to move on, and since QB is essentially all that matters, the Packers have the better (that’s what I’m told) and are at home with what I believe is the better roster. 

These teams boast 2 of the 3 worst rushing offenses in the entire league (Green Bay 30^th and Pittsburgh 32^nd).  The Packers are frustrating in that department as when they commit to the run, it really opens the entire offense up and makes Rodgers an MVP-caliber player – i.e., 2020’s season.  Get Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon going early and often, and the Packers can pretty much do whatever they want, when they want.  Just stick with it.  Even if punting early in the game due to drives shorting out, running wears on the opposing D line, which opens everything up in the 2^nd half and especially crunch time in the 4^th quarter. 

In the grander scheme, while non-conference games are least important, winning home games is always a statement that adds to the mentality of a team (and imposes onto other teams coming to Lambeau) – win this game to add to LaFleur’s early, yet impressive, home record (16-3 including postseason) because the schedule toughens up in the coming weeks.  Beginning Oct. 24^th there are six games vs. 2020 postseason teams in the next 9, which one of those “non-playoff” teams from a year ago is 3-0 Arizona, which will be a Thursday night road game…win this, get to 3-1 and focus on finally winning IN Cincinnati!

Steelers 20
Packers 27

Season: 1-2
Overall: 70-38

Review~ that was the bounce-back performance everyone expected to see.  It also took a total of 3 halves of football for the starters to look like they cared.  While not every team played a preseason, the Packers definitely looked like one that could’ve benefitted from playing some.  Green Bay had great balance, running a total of 61 plays with 31 of them rushing the ball and 30 drop backs.  While the defense is still a concern (Detroit out-gained the Packers) the 2^nd half showed the true bend-but-don’t-break D coming up with a shutout of the Lions.

Hardly a feel-good performance for the fans, but this should be a true litmus test for the Packers…San Francisco.  The 49ers are about as complete a football team as there is in the NFL. 

Preview~ San Francisco is one of the most-balanced teams in the NFL.  They have been since the arrival of Kyle Shanahan.  His offense stems from everything running the football.  There are a lot of similarities to be pulled from LaFleur’s offense that came from Shanahan’s.  While the season is still young, we’re beginning to see teams’ true moldings…San Fran has had an awful bout with the injury bug when it comes to the Running Back position, yet still rank 9^th in rush offense (124.0 yards/game).  That’s a testament to their commitment to the run game. 

The other huge impact this game might see is the absence of #74 LT Elgton Jenkins.  That means the Packers’ best 2 OL (Bakhtiari & Jenkins) will be missing when taking on, arguably, the best defensive front in football.  That spells a recipe for disaster.  These are far two different teams than the ones that matched up last season, and #97 DE Nick Bosa on San Fran was missing in action last year and will likely be an issue on Sunday night.  Until there’s more season played, it makes sense to keep these synopses short and sweet until there’s more meat to chew.

Packers 27
49ers 34

Season: 1-1
Overall: 70-37

After all the talk of the Last Dance Tour stopped (about mid-3^rd quarter), it feels as if the entire season came to a crashing (realization) halt.  Are they able to correct a few things and blast Detroit?  Sure, Detroit is terrible, a classic no-win scenario for the Packers, other than an opportunity to improve and work on some things.

While New Orleans is a good team, the Packers would’ve lost to any of the other 31 teams in the NFL with that effort – or lack thereof.  It’s a throwaway tape, not really anything to watch.  Elgton Jenkins looked good at LT, as did AJ Dillon running ball…on all 4 carries.  He did average 4.8 yards/carry, and a lot of those yards came after contact, and during contact.  Green Bay needs to have Dillon and Aaron Jones combine for 35+ touches/game.  An ideal mark would be 40, which would mean committing to the run and not checking out of it. 

The offense resembled the 2018 offense when it was full-on backyard football—the QB just doing whatever the hell he wanted.  Results were similar, shocking to some.

Defense was soft as well, playing 8+ yards off the ball, not sure why—it did resemble a 4^th preseason game.  Sure, other organizations didn’t have those issues, however maybe, just maybe it wouldn’t have hurt to get some starters in live action when the opportunity presented itself.  Fear can cripple.

Preview~             Typically I’d go through the previous seasons’ stats/rankings for an opponent in week 2, however Detroit had such turnover – they’re such a different team altogether that it wouldn’t make sense.  With that said, they’re still terrible…yet showed fight and effort when getting blasted by San Francisco, at home, and had a chance to send it to OT.  Meanwhile, our guys gave up…one never showed up.

Sadly, regardless what happens, until this team gets tested again (possibly in week 3 @ San Francisco) we likely won’t learn a whole lot.

Lions 27

Packers 34

Season: 0-1

Overall: 69-37

Offseason is over, preseason is over, the drama…will be here until it’s not…

With each NFL season being far different than the year prior, for most teams, I still like to look at the entire prior season as a baseline for the next season’s expectations (predictions may be a better word here).  The 2020 New Orleans Saints team was about as complete a team as there was in the NFL.  However, like usual, their QB choked in the postseason and thus they didn’t sniff the Lombardi Trophy, let alone win it.  Same with the Packers.  On to the matchup!

As you can see, the Saints rank higher in 6 of the 8 categories from last season.  Obviously, the HUGE difference is Drew Brees retiring, thus leaving New Orleans with turnover-heavy Jameis Winston at the helm.  Also, they’re missing one of the top WRs in the NFL, #13 Michael Thomas, and homerun-hitter, #10 Tre’Quan Smith.  That should really help Green Bay’s defense which had all kinds of issues tackling #41 Alvin Kamara in last year’s week 3 match-up.  Kamara only carried the ball 6 times for 58 yards (an embarrassing 9.7 yds/carry avg.), but caught 13 balls for 139 yards and 2 TDs.  Everyone remembers the 52-yard TD where he broke close to 1,000 tackles on that play alone.  Kamara is – and should be – the focal point.  Stop him, make Winston beat you for 60 minutes and you should get 2-3 turnovers.  Win the turnover battle, per usual, and win the game.

The key for me, aside from QB-play, will be the OL v DL when each team has the ball.  Green Bay is missing all-world LT David Bakhtiari, and I don’t expect much, if any, drop off in play switching to Elgton Jenkins (also a stud), but Jenkins vacating his normal LG spot could create some issues.  Also, rookie Center, Josh Myers, will get a brutal test (just as his predecessor did in 2014) going up against the 5^th ranked defense (points) out of the shoot.  Another key injury for the Saints – as I’m writing this – their top CB #23 Marshon Lattimore is listed as “Questionable,” and that could really open up passing lanes and the play book as they’ll have to shift coverage to Davante (whom the Packers were without in last years’ matchup).  This could really slant the field and, like last year, have the Packers playing from ahead, which LaFleur does well in that scenario. 

Look for some points as NO’s OL is solid and should give Winston some time, who regardless likes to heave it downfield and that could lead to big plays and turnovers.

Packers 34
Saints 24

Season: 0-0
Overall: 69-36

Maybe my longest hiatus…however, while there was a ton going on within the NFL, particularly our QB, everyone seems to be (finally) flipping on him – in some manner.  As always, I do the schedule grid, meaning I go through all 17 games of each of the 32 teams so each win/loss coincides with their opponents.  This makes it tough to truly guess/predict a specific team’s (or all of them) record, but it’s meant for particular matchup and really seeding into the playoffs. 

The main question for Packer Nation is: Whose fault will it be this year?  We know it’s not #12’s, because he’s immune to blame- even though he’s the biggest choke in the game not-named Matt Ryan.

Here are the results of the grid:

And the playoffs with the rankings, and match-ups:

Short and sweet.  There’s about a 33% chance of picking the correct Super Bowl winner if you choose Tom Brady.  Might as well.  As for the Packers, they’re a solid team, possibly the best roster in the NFL—tough to overcome when the QB requires the best defense in the NFL and pick-6’s at the right times as well as complete momentum shifts (again, all from the defense) to win a NFC title game, let alone a Super Bowl.

Crown they asses.