The season is finally upon us!  I’m not sure if you feel similar, but this is the least excited I can remember being about football in my entire life.  The best feeling I’ve had was hearing the FOX music on a promo, but something about the stadiums being empty, or nowhere near capacity just complexes me.  Anyway, onto week 1!

The Vikings have changed a bit since their random (and quite unforeseen) playoff victory last year.  They’ve moved on from Stefon Diggs (traded to Buf) and drafted Justin Jefferson (LSU), as well as saw Everson Griffen’s services vacate US Bank Stadium, but traded for Yannick Ngakoue (from Jax).  Minnesota got younger with both of those moves, and while Diggs is very productive, when paying your QB premium $, you expect/need him to make-up for lack of receiving “talent.” 

Ngakoue could present a problem for the Packers’ OL.  Last year, Bryan Bulaga had his best season in a very solid career. He’s gone.  However, the Packers have caught a major break with (arguably) Minnesota’s best player – Danielle Hunter #99 – being placed on IR, Green Bay only needs to worry about the newcomer – Yannick Ngakoue #91.  Green Bay’s new RT- Billy Turner #77 (who was the worst starter for the Packers’ stellar OL in 2019) may be tasked with keeping Rodgers upright…that is if Turner clears his injury and is ready by kickoff.

Advantage?  I believe the Packers’ offense (now in the 2^nd year of LaFleur’s system) has the advantage over Minnesota’s defense.  One of their most-impressive wins in 2019 came on Monday Night Football in Minneapolis to seal the division by winning 23-10.  Winning on the road in Minnesota, as the Packers, is about a tough-a-place to play as anywhere.  It’s always loud and they’re geared up like it’s the Super Bowl (because it is for them), and the Packers dominated in all 3-phases for all 4 quarters of that game.  There’s no reason to think this won’t be like that atmosphere again…oh, except there won’t be ANY fans in attendance. 

As for the Packers’ D v Vikings’ O?  I think that’s a stale-mate.  The Packers front should be able to get pressure on Cousins like last year, especially if 2019 1^st round pick (Rashan Gary #52) takes a much-needed jump.  Minnesota’s equalizer is HB Dalvin Cook #33.  The only thing to slow him down are injuries.  He’s as dynamic, if not more so, than Aaron Jones and is a true natural runner of the football.  If Green Bay can force Cousins to beat them, I believe it’ll be 3 wins in a row for the Green & Gold.  If it’s Dalvin Cook’s game…not so much.

Packers 24
Vikings 21

Overall: 55-31

The season is…well, here.  Who knew?  While everyone complained about the preseason, it was good for quite a few things.

1. Staying on schedule
2. Hyping up the season (aka creating interest)
3. Getting an idea of who, what, why, etc.

Now with the season just abruptly starting, it’s odd how little interest there seems to be amongst the masses.  However, it’s still going on as scheduled…for now.  Keep in mind there’s an additional playoff team this year, making 7 per conference.  Leaving only the 1 seed with a BYE, which makes the regular that much more important.  As always, I’ve predicted every single regular season game to come up with the records (while I don’t think every team will have these records, I do believe these will be the playoff seedings).  Let’s look at how the 2020 season will shake out.  If you recall, I’ve nailed the last 2 Super Bowl winners.

*The regular season finished standings seem somewhat realistic, especially if Patrick Mahomes continues this trend of being MegaMan.  Some teams will surprise and some will disappoint, as always, but it’s the teams that have a real shot to win the Super Bowl that should draw your most attention, as well as your favorite team.  How would the playoffs shake out given these seedings?

This may be tough to follow, but keep in the mind the 1 seed in each conference gets a BYE in the playoffs, where every other team must play 3 games to get to the Super Bowl.  However, the 2 seed has an advantage of having at least 2 home games before having to travel.  I feel somewhat confident in the Packers finishing 11-5 (again, assuming the season plays 16 which there’s no reason they shouldn’t, but that’s not why you’re here). 

In my scenario, I have Green Bay getting the 3 seed, meaning they’d get 2 home playoff games, just like the 2 seed, should they win Wild Card weekend.  We see a rematch from last year’s Divisional Playoff between 6^th seeded Seattle and 3^rd seeded Green Bay, which even in the old playoff format would be the same.  Much like last year, Seattle (and Russell Wilson) isn’t nearly as good on the road as at home, especially in the playoffs.  If memory serves me right, Wilson’s only 2 road playoff wins are his rookie year @ Washington with fellow rookie QB RGIII, and that defense was outstanding.  The other from last year where Seattle traveled to a decimated Philadelphia team, and while leading the whole game, struggled to pull away.  Expect much of the same in this rematch—Green Bay to take early control and hold on to the victory.

Enter the Divisional Round, which was the expected Div. Rd. matchup last year: Saints @ Packers.  New Orleans inexplicably lost to Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, at home!  The Saints have one of the most complete rosters in the NFL, but much like Seattle, are a far different animal away from their loud-ass home stadium.  Drew Brees will just have turned 42 years old and having to play in single-digit temperatures, likely at night, is the best-case scenario for a Packers’ defense.  Aaron Jones and the defense make enough plays in the blistering cold to come out with a close, hard-fought W and move on to the NFC Championship for yet another rematch with the 49ers.

Ahh yes, back to the place where the massacre started as soon as Rodgers bypassed an open Jimmy Graham on 3^rd and short on the first offensive possession of the game (after the defense held a 3 & out on SF’s first) and instead dumped it off to Jamaal Williams with almost no chance to gain the first down.  Then with confidence from his defense, rookie Head Coach Matt LaFleur decided to punt and we all know what happened after that…

For you that know me, know I have little confidence in the Packers winning another Super Bowl, especially with Rodgers, but I do think if this scenario plays out- Green Bay will be pulling out all the stops with their actual goal of getting past the NFC title game and getting to the Super Bowl.  I too believe most fans will be happy as a clam if this were to occur, and that’s mostly why I think Green Bay will pull out the win – that and actually having another year with the Smith Bros., Amos, Savage, and an athletic MLB in Pettine’s defense…as well as LaFleur’s 2^nd year as play-caller, it could resemble the Shanahan-led 9ers offense, which is run-focused.

So, let’s say the Packers find themselves in Tampa Bay for Super Bowl LV, as you can see I have them matched up vs. Baltimore.  This is a decent match-up for the Packers.  The Ravens’ D is outstanding, much like San Fran’s, and they’re a run-focused team, but in a different sense.  Lamar Jackson (2019 NFL MVP) is so dynamic and absolutely kills you with his legs.  The focus there should be to get a solid hit on him as often as possible, that will wear him down and ultimately could (should) lead to inaccurate throws and turnovers.  Green Bay will likely need 3 turnovers (and be +3 in that category) to win the game.  In the end, I think it’s a gut-wrenching loss, much like Super Bowl XXXII where the Packers will have the ball with about 3 minutes left and needing a touchdown to win and come up short. 

Another great steppingstone, but we’re passed that phase as fans, aren’t we?  Just think, if the world returns to normal and we’re allowed to watch camp, practice, preseason games, and hell even attend games in person…think of the setup coming into 2021 with the Packers having come off NFC title and Super Bowl losses in back-to-back years and the possibility of trading Aaron Rodgers should Jordan Love be ready to step in…

As the dumbest year marches on, we’re hoping for sports.  What the Bucks and Brewers are doing is not sport…its practice, summer league, spring training, etc., but it’s not sports that we like.  However, with sports trying (or making it seem like they are) to get going, let’s dive in.

Bucks—they stumbled in & out of the “Re-Start.”  Milwaukee finished 3-5 and dropped the 1^st game of the “playoffs” to the lowly Orlando Magic, who were missing multiple starters.  Even if the Bucks pull it together and win the Larry O’Brien trophy, it won’t count, at least not to me.  Without any fans, and a home-court advantage, this just continues to spit in the face of common sense…

Brewers—similar to the Bucks, the Brewers had their season postponed and, so far, have gotten out to a rough start (vs. expectations).  Again, with this season so jacked up, it’s tough to keep the Brewers’ goals in-line.  However, through 23 games, the Brewers are 11-12.  All the Brewers have to do to reach the Covid-postseason is finish in the top 2 of the NL Central.  As of right now, .500 seems to get the job done.  St. Louis has the right idea of getting their whole roster this extremely non-lethal virus so A. they don’t have to play and can keep teams like Milwaukee chasing them and B. those players who tested positive will have 1 less potential reason for absence come crunch time.  All in all, chalk this up to a non-official season/champion like the NBA and hope people calm the hell down over this non-lethal virus.

On to more important things, like football.  The NFL was handling everything great, until it didn’t.  This is how difficult it is these days to keep politics out of sports…anyway, let’s try! (I hate that word).

Packers—Green Bay opens camp in a solid spot, overall.  If things were normal, would the Packers have a realistic shot at winning the Super Bowl?  Not really.  It’s been proven in order to win, the Packers need a top 2 scoring defense, and while the defense took major strides and improved up to 9^th in scoring last year, they’re still a ways away from being a top-tier defense (think San Francisco or Baltimore).  However, in the grand scheme, Green Bay is in a solid spot moving forward.  There’s quite a bit of talent, young talent, spread across the roster.  Kenny Clark (#97) just signed a huge extension, 4 years / $70 Million.  Compared to Chris Jones (DT- Chiefs: 4 years; $85 Million) that’s a steal!  Clark is arguably the 2^nd best Defensive Tackle in the NFL (2^nd to Aaron Donald).

Aside from the Clark extension, the Packers have a shot to contend for another bye in the postseas….oh wait, that’s right.  The best playoff format in pro sports was just F**ked up, because.  So now the only BYE will be earned by the 1 seed, thus having the 2 seed play on Wild Card/Opening weekend.  As a great friend of mine refers to that weekend as “Scrub weekend.”  Now the 1 seed is that much more important where you’re playing one less game AND have both playoff games at home.  This year it may only make a difference for how many games as the NFL will likely cower to fear and bubble-up or something, but either way, the Packers’ goal should be to attain the 1 seed.  13-3 may do the trick again, but that took damn near 100% health last year – outside from Adams missing 4 games (Green Bay did go 4-0 without Adams…)

Predictions will come later as, obviously, a lot can change with both the team, league, and world for that matter.  However, the ones everyone is keeping an eye on are the first 2 draft picks: QB Jordan Love #10; HB A.J. Dillon #28.  Again, Love has a boatload of potential with a bazooka arm and Dillon has Lacy-like vision coupled with Thomas Jones like anger (how he runs)…dude LOVES contact.  That should help in the 4^th quarter when closing out games.  There’s nothing more demoralizing to an opponent than when they know you’re running, and they want nothing to do with stopping it…enter THIGHS, A.J. Dillon.  Okay, getting ahead of myself.

Until camp breaks…

The issues and misconceptions around the NFL Draft.

1. Good teams don’t Draft for Need; Bad teams do
2. Immediate impact by Rookies?
3. Greg Cosell on Aaron Rodgers
4. How does this set up the Packers moving forward?
5. Rashan Gary project…

First, let’s take a look at the draft picks:

Most, if not all, of Packer Nation is pissed about this draft.  First and foremost for not only taking a QB in the 1^st round, but trading UP to do so.  A complete head-scratcher for many.  My initial thought was sheer laughter as I knew 99% of Packer fans would erupt.  Am I sick?  Probably.  Am I an idiot?  Maybe.  Has GM Brian Gutekunst and Head Coach Matt LaFleur shown the competence for me to trust them?  So far.

For me, General Managers get 3-4 years of judgement free time from me.  Like his predecessor, Ted Thompson, Brian Gutekunst inherited a somewhat trouble-some roster, but not in cap hell (Thompson was always great with the cap).  After their last pick on Saturday, April 25^th, it was clear the Packers were building a roster to fit LaFleur’s run-heavy scheme.

1. Love is a big QB with a big arm. He’s also athletic, which always helps, but can drive the ball and get it down field with minimal effort.
2. Dillon is just a brut. He’s a nightmare to tackle 1-on-1, and if he hits the 2^nd level with any momentum, he’s a problem.
3. Deguara- while unknown, after watching some film he’s extremely athletic for a guy his size/build. Seems to fit the Kyle Juszczyk-type of player that wears #44 on the San Francisco 49ers.  Creates matchup problems for the defense due to his versatility to line up in the back field, slot, or out wide and produce from each location.

I’m only aware of 2 of the other draft picks: Jon Runyan Jr.; Jake Hanson.  Runyan’s father played for 14 seasons, most with Philadelphia and put together a pretty strong career.  The NFL has taught us bloodlines mean something, and drafting his kid from Michigan will, at worst, add depth to a position always in need of depth.  Hanson, I believe was the leader of the Oregon offensive line and did a fine job in the Rose Bowl vs. Wisconsin’s tough front 7.  This seems like a safety guard to be the eventual replacement to Corey Linsley, who was a nice rookie in 2014, but never really improved and has been steady.

Now to cover the hot topics…why the Packers drafted the way they did.

1. Good teams don’t draft for (immediate) need. This statement is said this way for a purpose…good teams continue to pick the best football players available at the time, regardless of position.  Unless they’re deciding between 2 or more players and they’re all considered damn near the same, then side with the one for need, but even then…
   1. Example being, the Packers were gifted Aaron Rodgers in 2005, so they were left with no choice but to trade the pick or take him. Say what you will about how you think I view him, but that was a no-brainer choice, and he did net 1 Super Bowl W, which I don’t believe any other QB from that class has.
2. Do rookies make an immediate impact? Yes, of course they do.  However, the better question is Do rookies make an immediate impact on Super Bowl-winning teams?  That is the question for almost any team.  Reason being, if your team is close enough to win the Super Bowl, and you’re addressing needs through the draft, odds are:
   • Those needs really aren’t all that dire
   • You’re further away from winning the Super Bowl than you truly think
   • Your team actually isn’t in contention and why the hell are you drafting for need vs. adding the best player available? (Hint: the correct answer is C)
3. Greg Cosell appeared on the Rich Eisen podcast/radio show the following week after the draft, and lent some really good insight into the reasons Green Bay decided to grab Jordan Love. I’d suggest listening, since apparently everyone has extra time these days.
4. How does this set up the Packers moving forward? I hinted at this above, but look for the Packers to appear a bit closer to the 2019 San Francisco 49ers or the 2016 Atlanta Falcons.  While highlighted by the big plays, those were run-based offenses that allowed the QB to make easy throws and manipulate defenses rather easily, which means that offense doesn’t really require super star pass catchers, but all 11 on the same page, all the time.
   • Green Bay now has a solid Offensive Line depth (again, after losing TJ Lang) and a very, very solid stable of Halfbacks:
     • #33 Aaron Jones
     • #30 Jamaal Williams
     • #28 A.J. Dillon
     • #22 Dexter Williams
     • #32 Tyler Ervin
5. Lastly, 12 months after I (and many others) criticized the draft pick of Rashan Gary, let’s look at why…am I a hypocrite for doing so? While I’d understand that argument, here’s why that was far different:
   • Gary was considered to be the 3^rd best defender…from his school in that draft alone (behind Devin Bush- ILB and Chase Winovich- Edge Rusher).
   • He never really produced when he should have in college
   • There was another player that not only fit need, but did produce and was the 3^rd best defender from his school (Clemson) which was, and is, light years ahead of Michigan…that player is Christian Wilkins
   • Did the Gary pick make sense? Sure, like OL, you really can’t have enough pass rushers.
     • i.e. 2018 to 2019 Baltimore Ravens.
     • i.e. 2019 to 2020 Green Bay Packers.
       1. Each team lost 1-2 edge rusher so not having to address that immediate need will always be relieving.
     • Should the 12^th overall pick contribute? Yes, a bit, and he was drafted to do so, even if the Packers got more from the Smith Bros. than expected.
     • Lastly, the Packers were not expected to contend for the Super Bowl, so as long as they took the best player available on their board, I’ll understand.

If you’re still here, I greatly appreciate it, and hopefully if you were upset, mad, frustrated, or in search of why I’m not any of those, you at least have an understanding as to how the brain trust of the Green Bay Packers is operating and why it may be a good thing.

While most (if not all) Packer fans are pissed, there’s one question that group fails to answer: When was the last rookie to be a major contributor to a Super Bowl Winner?  Did any of these players contribute in a major way to their teams’ Super Bowl Championship?

• 2019 Chiefs: Mecole Hardman- nice player, wasn’t a position of need
• 2018 Patriots: Sony Michel- nice player, wasn’t a position of need
• 2017 Eagles: Derek Barnett- 5.0 sacks that season, 1.0 postseason sacks- thank you Nick Foles
• 2016 Patriots: Cyrus Jones???
• 2015 Broncos: Shane Ray?
• 2014 Patriots: Jimmy G…helped start 2-0 while Brady was suspended…not a position of need
• 2013 Seahawks: no one
• 2012 Ravens: Courtney Upshaw- nice player…
• 2011 Giants: Prince Amukamara—nice player, not major factor
• 2010 Packers: Bryan Bulaga—major contributor, due to injury (Tauscher hurt)…also best available

So while many be upset with Jordan Love, his upside is tough to ignore.  Listen, this is the draft to get fat on Wide Receivers, and considering the top tier was pretty much taken just before the 26^th pick shows Green Bay was worried someone else was going to snag the last, best remaining QB.

The one player remaining that I still struggle to grasp is Grant Delpit- S from LSU.  However, there are plenty of players available with extreme value remaining and as long as Green Bay continues to follow the “Draft the best available,” that will likely play out best for the organization.

Finally!  Something to watch where we don’t know the outcome!

The Packers have plenty of needs to address, however addressing current needs in the draft gets you in trouble.  Picking the best player available is usually the best method to success.  If that best player available just so happens to fill a current need, that’s a win-win.  Let’s look at some potential prospects that could fall to Green Bay and how that would impact moving forward.

Wide Receivers – this draft is considered to possibly be the best ever for that department.  Here’s a tiered group that would be ideal for the Packers to add that could realistically contribute their rookie year, but then again, keep in mind, rookies rarely contribute enough to help win a Super Bowl.  The best draft class ever (in my opinion, by a single team) was the Saints in 2017, and they still had one of those awesome rookies fail to make a tackle on Diggs in the NFC Divisional Round to lose on the Minneapolis Miracle.  But I digress…

• CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma
• Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama
• Henry Ruggs III, WR Alabama
• Justin Jefferson, WR LSU
• Brandon Aiyuk, WR Arizona St.
• Tee Higgins, WR Clemson
• Laviska Shenault Jr., WR Colorado
• Denzel Mims, WR Baylor
• Jalen Reagor, WR TCU

I’d be happy with any of those players taken at 30^th.  Especially Lamb, Jeudy, or Ruggs as they’re considered to go near or in the top 10.

Other Positions—here’s a list of players that would make sense to draft at 30^th for the Packers should they be available as well, or at least to keep an eye on…

• Tristan Wirfs, OL Iowa
• Jedrick Wills Jr., OL Alabama
• Andrew Thomas, OL Georgia
• Mekhi Becton, OL Louisville
• Kenneth Murray, ILB Oklahoma
• Patrick Queen, ILB LSU
• Grant Delpit, S LSU

Again, if some of these players fall to 30^th, it’s extreme value to Green Bay to select them…and the one that seems to be somewhat realistic is the Safety from LSU, Grant Delpit.  By all accounts, he seems to be a certifiable stud and will be in the NFL.  With the way the NFL has been and seems to be is defending the pass and needing pass rushers, coverage, and playmakers: he fits all 3.

Let’s look at a few scenarios…

Dream Scenario—if somehow Tua Tagovailoa (QB – Alabama) drops to 30^th similar to Aaron Rodgers dropping to 24^th in 2005.  Again, I think there’s zero chance of this happening, even more so BECAUSE of the Rodgers drop.  However, dream scenario.

Close to a Dream—Tua drops enough to a point where Green Bay could trade up without giving away tremendous value to a spot to draft him.  Again, highly unlikely and there’s too much value in this draft to give away picks (when they should be acquiring).

My Prediction??? –

1. Trade back (assuming they find a partner).
2. Laviska Shenault Jr., WR Colorado

It’s been 75 days since last posting.  Without covering the obvious, let’s take a dive into what’s happened since the Chiefs hoisted their 2^nd Lombardi Trophy.

Let’s look at Free Agency, both additions and subtractions (and some maybe addition BY subtraction).  Players lost:

• ILB Blake Martinez – Giants
• OT Bryan Bulaga – Chargers
• WR Geronimo Allison – Lions
• OLB Kyler Fackrell – Giants
• ILB BJ Goodson – Browns
• FB Danny Vitale – Patriots

The ones that hurt most are the first two names.  While Martinez was a polarizing player amongst fans, he did provide value in 2 major ways: 1. Availability; 2. an overall good person that truly loved playing here.  The other is Bryan Bulaga—while not always the most available, possibly had his best year of his career in 2019.  Bulaga was part of the best Tackle duo in the NFL.  Did the Packers replace those two (and 4 others) enough to improve heading into the draft?  Let’s take a look.

Additions:

• ILB Christian Kirksey – Browns
• OT Rick Wagner – Lions (from West Allis)
• WR Devin Funchess – Colts (mostly from Panthers)
• OLB Jamal Davis II – Dolphins
• Gerald Willis – Dolphins

Kirksey, while injury-prone by definition, seems to be a productive player when available.  If you know me, you know how I feel about players like this.  Low value, however, assuming he’s able to play 15-16 games this year, there’s a chance he’s a better fit at ILB than Martinez was for Pettine’s defense…hopefully.

Rick Wagner is a serviceable Tackle and experienced, which is huge.  He has 87 career starts coming into the 2020 campaign, which is what you want from an OL you sign from Free Agency, experience.

Devin Funchess is a big-bodied target (6’4” 225lbs) that ran about a 4.5 forty at the 2015 combine.  Another sensible free agency pickup that provides nice depth for an area of need, the WR corps.

The 2 players added Tue (4.21) spent most of their time on the Dolphins and their practice squad last year.  While you shouldn’t expect anything from them, more bodies and if you get any sort of production from them, outside of special teams, major bonus.

To review, the Packers seem to have a large Net Loss losing Bulaga and adding Wagner.  Possibly Loss, Even, or Upgrade in Kirksey over Martinez.  Funchess can’t be anything but an upgrade over Allison, unless he finds himself in Rodgers’ doghouse…

Tune back later this afternoon to see the Draft “prediction” blog.

Normally I would’ve dedicated a separate blog to reviewing the NFC title game, however to keep it efficient, this will be a total recap.  So here we go.

NFC Championship Game Review~ the Packers eventually were outclassed in every facet of the game.  While the start was quite promising, the missed read by Rodgers on the 5^th play of the drive, a 3^rd & 3 from the GB 48.  After that, the punt ensued (I would’ve gone for it, regardless) and away the 49ers went.  The defense began with a 3 & out, but that was it.

It’s not worth recapping much, everyone played like crap.  Even team captain, Za’Darius Smith, commented about how the team wasn’t ready to play…that should be quite alarming.  That falls on the Head Coach, but it also falls on each individual player.  Hence no need to recap.

Season Recap~ again, this was one of the weirdest situations a pro sports team found themselves in, rare territory.  Many thought this Packers team wouldn’t finish above .500.  I was torn heading into the season of where to slot the Packers.  I thought anywhere between 8-8 and 12-4, so I settled for 10-6 and then did the entire schedule and had Green Bay as the 5 seed.  So winning a playoff game with a rookie Head Coach, technically, is impressive.  However, the older I get, the more I realize the more you capitalize on these opportunities, the more likely these opportunities come by – there are 2 questions left to be asked (almost every year):

1. Was this season a success?
2. Are you pleased with how this season ended?

This is where it gets weird.  The Packers’ season had a successful season, in my terms.  Yet somehow I’m not pleased with how it finished.  Here’s way…

• It’s a success due to winning a playoff game with a rookie Head Coach. Getting to the NFC title game is technically more impressive if you began in the Wild Card than getting a bye, due to having to win a road playoff game.  It’s weird, I know.
• I’m not pleased—due to seeing this team for 16 games, and knowing this season came down to a pure matchup issue. This was also the reason I was supremely confident the entire game vs. Seattle.  I knew Green Bay had the proper matchup for Seattle…Rodgers vs. that Seahawks D, he should tear it up.
  • Knowing Rodgers absolutely blows in NFC title game—every TD pass in those game has come in garbage time sans 1 (vs. Seattle).

There’s HOPE, moving forward.  The issue is that Hope Isn’t A Strategy.

NFL Recap~ well, for the 2^nd consecutive season I picked the Super Bowl winner.  I wasn’t too accurate on much else, but whatever.  Some may say that I thought the 9ers would win the night before the Super Bowl, which I did.  However, I’d then have written this saying “How close I was to getting 2 in a row, correct.”

Heading into next season, it’s the same narrative…”How much more help does Rodgers need to win?”  There’s the issue.  Many claim (Rodgers defenders) “It’s a team game, it’s more than just the QB,” a smart man once said (and it resonated) “Show me a loser and I’ll show you a QB that was outplayed.”  That’s sadly and alarmingly accurate.

This is the draft to get WRs, so hopefully the Packers take at least 2 of the top 9 WRs in the draft, and load up on defense, again.

Review~ Green Bay and their QB played a very clean, efficient game and Rodgers was extremely clutch on 3^rd down.  Looking at the Team Stats from the game, it shows it’d be a close game with the edge going to Seattle.  However, since neither team had a turnover – (a fumble that should’ve gone to Sullivan on Seattle’s first drive), and Kevin King dropped an easy pick—the key then goes to 3^rd down efficiency.  Green Bay converted 9-of-14 (64%) third downs while limiting Seattle to 3-of-9 (33%).  Rodgers connected with Jimmy Graham three times, all converting a huge 3^rd down- the last to seal the game and move the Packers to Championship Sunday.

As I stated last week, Seattle was missing a legitimate starting Halfback, and old-and-slow Marshawn Lynch proved to be just that.  While he had 2 touchdowns, both came from goal line situations, otherwise he was a non-factor and it was all on Russell Wilson to win the game, which proved to be too much as he was sacked on a the Packers’ defense’s biggest 3^rd down of the game.  Carroll’s decision to punt risked his offense not getting the ball back, which was foolish as Rodgers had gone 7-of-12 on 3^rd downs in the game, up to that point.  Also, the Packers had scored touchdowns on half of their possessions in the game, punting on the other 4.  Meaning, best case scenario, the Seahawks would be to get the ball back around their 22 yard line, with about 1:45 left and a timeout or two, and needing a touchdown.  This shows how important building a lead is, because it demands damn near perfection from the losing team to come all the way back and win.  While many think the 2014 title game was reminiscent of this one, I (in attendance) never once thought the Packers would let this slip away—Wilson doesn’t win in Lambeau.  Yes he was great in the 2^nd half, however for as awesome as he was then, he was that “pedestrian” in the 1^st half.  He missed open targets and overthrew Malik Turner (#17) on the first play of their 3^rd drive which should’ve resulted in the King interception, so on and so forth.

In the end, the Packers were the better team for the entirety of the game, and it showed.  Now can the Packers go to Santa Clara, California and build a lead to make the better team (San Francisco) play perfect to come back?

Preview~ a rematch of the ass-kicking that took place in Week 12 on Sunday night, November 24^th.  It was the Packers’ first game coming off the BYE, and they were quite healthy going into a banged up San Fran team.  Every Packer fan likely has trouble scrubbing that from their memory, as they should.  The 9ers were the most complete team in the NFC all season, and even went into Baltimore and gave them a tough test (losing 20-17 on a FG as time expired).

The realist in you should be worried about where the Packers can gain an advantage to potentially upset the vaunted 49ers.  Let’s take a look at how these teams matchup:

As you can see, the Packers really only have 2 areas of advantage: Rush O vs SF’s rush D and the Turnover differential.  The Packers were +12 (tied-3^rd) where San Francisco finished +4 (tied-10^th).  That’s where Green Bay will need to take advantage if they plan to pull this game out.  If Green Bay can “steal” 2 possessions and score touchdowns on each, creating a 14-28 point swing that would put them in the driver’s seat.  However, getting the lead/scoring 1^st should be the priority for the Packers.  Let’s make Jimmy Garoppolo play from behind and somehow if you’re able to jump out to a 10-0 or 14-3 lead, that should allow Pettine to put his defense in a great position to control the game and dictate what Shanahan does on offense.

This has been one of, if not the, most parodied seasons in recent memory for the NFL, so it’s only fitting that the Packers found a way to have an opportunity to “steal” a ring.  Not only would that go a ways into cementing Rodgers’ legacy (while I thought he’d have 3 by the time he’s done after initially seeing him start a whole season in 2008, I also said after 2014 he’d never win another), when looking into each season and how things transpire- careers are judged at overall accomplishments and not how the accomplishments were attained…but that’s another topic for the offseason (man I’m really mounting those up this playoff run).

In the end, while I wouldn’t be shocked if the Packers pulled this out, and I do think 90% (maybe more) are dictated by the play of the QB, Rodgers typically sucks in NFC title games.  We also have no clue about Jimmy G and his Big Game situations.  He was quite fortunate to have his 1^st playoff appearance come against Kirk Cousins – who’s notorious for choking in big games – and for it to come at home after a bye.  This should be a much more even matchup, and possibly even back-and-forth, but in the end, I think the 49ers have too much of an advantage at other areas and QB-play is close to even…at least heading into this.  If Rodgers kills it like he did on 3^rd down in the Divisional game in the Championship game, there’s no doubt the Packers will be moving on.

Packers 21
49ers 27

Season: 11-6
Overall: 54-31

Rankings~ Redemption? Not really.  Winning this game will not make up for the epic choke job in the 2014 NFC title game, however, it could be part of the healing process if this turns to back-to-back Super Bowl titles.

Let’s take a look at the rankings and how these teams match-up.

Match-up~ I’ve highlighted the advantages for each team in their matchups, with the rankings in parenthesis.  As you can see, Seattle has the advantage on offense in the run game, which translates to total offense, in yards.  However, there’s more to it than that—the Seahawks are now featuring their 4^th, 5^th, and 6^th string running backs: Marshawn Lynch (#24); Travis Homer (#25); Robert Turbin (#34).  So the Packers technically have the upper-hand there now.

The Packers’ Offense seemingly has the advantage in every category vs. Seattle.  The Seahawks are also giving up more points/game than the Packers averaged this season, which bodes well as the postseason is typically lower-scoring so points are harder to come by.

The other rankings, which are very important, are Turnovers and Point Differential.  Combine all of these rankings and it gives you a great idea as to true strength of a team.  Each of these teams finished the season +12 in turnovers (T-3^rd), however the odd thing was Seattle only scored 7 more points than they gave up this season, which is difficult to do when you finish 11-5.  Meaning when they lose, they got had—and when they win, it’s typically close.

QB Match-up~ while Russell Wilson has been in the conversation for MVP this season, deservedly so, a QB’s job is to win.  Hence why they’re judged on Super Bowl wins (as they should be), and Wilson has done a decent job, but the dynamic of Seattle has switched from a suffocating defense to a solid QB with a bunch of weapons at the skill positions.  The Packers have focused on their defense, and while it may seem they’ve neglected the offense, they did spend (terribly overspent) $ on Jimmy Graham, and brought in RG Billy Turner (#77), with all the money allocated to Rodgers, put it on him to make everyone else better.  Which he’s done for most of the season, hence 13-3.  Rodgers, at home, is a tough out, and while only 3-2 in Lambeau in the playoffs, the advantage MUST side with him and the Packers here.

Rodgers vs. Wilson: 3-4.  With each W coming by the home team.  This makes complete sense as the Packers outplayed the Seahawks in 2 of those game in Seattle (9/24/2012- Fail Mary & 1/18/2015- NFC Title Game).

All of these rankings, turnovers, point differential, QB matchup…who wins?  I began the week somewhat nervous and skeptical—however, all I could think about is the absolute worst-case scenario of hosting the Vikings in an NFC Title game and losing…that’d be the worst!  Am I thinking ahead?  Yep, as we all should!

Seahawks 13
Packers 27

Season: 10-6
Overall: 53-31