What does the typical Super Bowl champion resemble? Let’s take a dive into what it takes to win a World Championship. Since the NFL has 2 to 3 different timelines, let’s use the most-recent one; Free Agency (1993 season).
|Year||SB Champion||Off||Def||Pt. Diff.||Seed|
|1994||San Francisco 49ers||1||6||1||1|
|1996||Green Bay Packers||1||1||1||1|
|1999||St. Louis Rams||1||4||1||1|
|2001||New England Patriots||6||6||7||2|
|2002||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||18||1||2||2|
|2003||New England Patriots-2||12||1||1||2|
|2004||New England Patriots-3||4||2||1||2|
|2007||New York Giants||14||17||13||5|
|2009||New Orleans Saints||1||20||1||1|
|2010||Green Bay Packers-2||10||2||2||6|
|2011||New York Giants-2||9||25||19||4|
|2014||New England Patriots-4||4||8||1||1|
|2016||New England Patriots-5||3||1||1||1|
|2018||New England Patriots-6||4||7||5||2|
|2019||Kansas City Chiefs||5||7||4||2|
|2020||Tampa Bay Buccaneers-2||3||8||4||5|
Since the beginning of the 1993 NFL season, the eventual Super Bowl Champion has ranked 7th in scoring offense, 7th in scoring defense, 4th in point differential, and has had an average postseason seed of 2nd – a bye.
Including this season, 70% of Super Bowl champions had a bye from the wild car round, which makes sense for two reasons: 1. Better teams earn a bye; 2. A full game less chance to be eliminated.
Again, the most indicative ranking of team strength is the point differential ranking; 4th. Including the 2021 season, 66% of eventual champions, or roughly 2 of every 3 are ranked 4th or better.
How does Green Bay compare? The Packers have ranked 7th or better in scoring offense 18 times. The defense has ranked 7th or better on eight occurrences since 1993. The opportunities have been there for the Packers to capitalize on their True Team Strength, yet this has led to heartbreak after countless heartbreak. Green Bay has lost on the final play in the postseason 8 times since the 1998.
What does this all mean? The Packers have had a “good enough” defense to win more than 2 Super Bowls in this time frame, assuming Quarterback is as important as everyone says it is – meaning either the Quarterbacks Green Bay has had since 1993 aren’t nearly as good as many have claimed OR the position really isn’t that important. It can’t be both, or can it?