…is what it will take to beat Arizona come Sunday.

The Packers somehow won the game in which they were completely outplayed. Oakland had more first downs, yards, 3^rd down conversions (surprise!), plays, and time of possession.  Turnovers were key, as the Packers capitalized to the max on both Raider turnovers, scoring 14 points off both.  Essentially the defense did all of the work on those, leaving the offense to put up 16 points.  That will not get it done in the playoffs.  The rookie cornerbacks held their own on the outside this game, even though Amari Cooper had a solid game of 100+ yards and 2 TDs.  Randall had a pick-6 land in his belly and Rollins made an incredible play in the end zone to hold Oakland to a Field Goal, keeping momentum.  James Starks was the better running back, again.  Even putting another ball on the ground he still was the preferred back by showing heart and a want to be on the field as opposed to his lazy counter-part, Lacy.  The promising thing was seeing this Packers defense close out the game, multiple times as Rodgers threw a Favre-like red zone interception for no reason in the last few minutes of the game when there was an opportunity to put an exclamation point on a road win.  The defense has showed it can play well with a lead and hold teams when trailing, it’s not a lock down defense but it would’ve been more than good enough to win a super bowl with last years’ offense.

Toughest Test? – Arizona is considered by many, including yours truly, to be the most complete team in the NFL dating all the way back to week 1.  The Cardinals seem to have an advantage at each position except for Punter.  It doesn’t seem like much but that may be Green Bay’s area to take advantage to swing this game in their favor.  By winning the field position battle and turnover battle (Green Bay leads the NFL with 11 giveaways, fewest with Arizona at 19) it would set the Packers up for an opportunity to win this game.  The Cardinals are the epitome of the phrase their sum is greater than the individual parts. They play man coverage and blitz often to pressure the quarterback, which Aaron Rodgers and the Packers normally would welcome with open arms in years past…now it’s been a nightmare.

Ahh yes, Eddie Lacy.  A week removed from one of his best games as a pro he reverts back to being lazy and looks more plump than usual, which is really saying something for him.  He didn’t hit the hole with aggression or decisiveness and kept bouncing things outside, which doesn’t end well when you’re not fast and just get caught in a heartbeat by the defense.  Even though Starks put the ball on the ground once again he was at least productive and earns his carries, week in and week out.  Each are averaging 4.1 yards/carry this season but Starks has shown consistency whereas Lacy is consistently inconsistent.  It’s safe to say the Packers won’t extend #27 past his rookie contract which ends after the 2016 season unless he shows a dedication to football and his body, don’t bet on it.

Green Bay can lock up the 2-seed in the NFC by winning out (at Arizona this week and v Minnesota next) and having Seattle beat Arizona next week. Albeit likely a pointless game for Seattle (if they win this week they will lock up a playoff spot but cannot win the division or earn a bye) so they may not being playing for anything.  – To review, the Cardinals’ D matches up very well with the Packers’ O, their offense matches up well with GB’s D, and the Packers may have a slight edge in the special teams dept.  Overall I’ll be rooting like hell (as always) for the Packers to pull this out but I don’t see how without luck and a bad game played by Arizona….

Packers 24
Cardinals 34

Review – The better team won, and did so by overpowering and outplaying Dallas the entire game.  It was refreshing to see the pedal pushed down the entire game.  The play calling allowed the running game to come in with the right mindset – started early and often.

Play-calling – Aaron Rodgers (and Jordy Nelson) answered “We executed better,” when asked about the change of play calling.  Some may take it as yet another jab at McCarthy, however it was clear the offense was in a rhythm from start to finish.  The offense got to the line of scrimmage with more time left on the play clock than recent weeks and it seemed like they knew what they were doing.  Plays were run with conviction.  There was no hem-hawing at the line, Rodgers looked like he was in complete control (like normal).  The execution was improved, but nowhere near perfect.  The second drive of the game stalled at the 1-yard line after going for it on 4^th and getting stuffed.  The defense bailed out the offense on the ensuing drive.

Defense – Sam Shields made a great play on an awful throw from Matt Cassel.  Many won’t remember how close this game was but it was 14-7 for a majority of the 2^nd half.  The defense kept them in the game, however without a legitimate starting QB the defense still gave up huge runs that were very concerning.  Overall it was a good team win and everyone stayed healthy, for the most part.

Preview – Oakland ranks 20^th in offense, 25^th in defense, and 14^th in turnover differential (+/- 0).  The Raiders play primarily man coverage, which has given the Packers passing game fits this season.  They also have, arguably, the best sack-man in the NFL in Khalil Mack.  Mack is coming of a 5 sack game, yes GAME!  He has all of the tools to get by NFL tackles.  Bakhtiari and Bulaga will have their hands full and definitely will require help with chip blocks, line shifts, and quick throws.  Since the Packers are the best (knock on wood) in the NFL at taking care of the football (9 giveaways) that should give them the edge in this game, along with the superior QB.  It should be a tough, hard fought game, and for some fans they can get all giddy with seeing Charles Woodson play the Packers.  With Mac calling plays the Packers and the Raiders’ secondary being their weak point, Green Bay should be able to get into a groove and move the ball.  Playing from ahead is their specialty and that’ll be the key in this game and for the remainder of the games this season.

Packers 24
Raiders 17

I’ve never been more embarrassed to be a fan of the Green Bay Packers than I am now.  Losing divisional games at home, versus divisional opponents that are quite inferior.  Detroit and Chicago are games that when playing at Lambeau Field, you should be able to roll the helmets out on the field and get a W.

The Packers are now in a position where they have to win out to restore confidence from me in their ability to win a Super Bowl.  Hell, that’s the position they were in entering the Vikings game.  The optimist in me says the Packers are 3 plays away from being 10-1.  However, I can’t help but think how the Packers won the first 6 games.

The Bears played just a standard man coverage scheme and waited for Rodgers to get the ball out to his receivers who can’t run routes, get open, or catch the ball.  Add in that #12’s accuracy in erratic (not only for him, but for Johnny Manziel) and it’s a poor product on the field.  The bright side is the defense has showed up since getting S-M-O-K-E-D in Carolina: 18 v Detroit; 13 at Minnesota; 17 v Chicago.  An Aaron Rodgers-led offense should put up 24 points in their sleep.

On to DEEEE-troit (as Mike McCarthy calls it), where the Lions have been rolling since canning their GM and offensive coordinator (Joe Lombardi, grandson of legendary Packers coach Vince).  Their offense is hitting stride and their defense is giving up yards but getting turnovers.  Considering the Lions went into Lambeau and won I can’t figure out how the Packers can go into Ford Field, a place of recent nightmares, and win.  That being said I’ve been wrong about every game since week 8 (at Denver).

Packers 23
Lions 24

Make that 4 consecutive weeks to show the NFL is tough to figure out.  The Packers showed they’re still the class of the NFC North.  The game seemed too big for Minnesota, who is a young and well-coached team coming up, but for now the Packers are the standard, still.

Defense – Very promising to see the defensive line control the line of scrimmage v. a below average offensive line but one of the best rushing teams in the NFL.  The secondary tackled well, didn’t necessarily wrap up each time, and kept the YAC to a minimum.

Offense – Seems to still be searching to get on the same page.  30 points is the minimum and Aaron Rodgers-led team should put up each week against anyone, anywhere.  Stats don’t always tell the truth as I believe he had a better game @ Minnesota than he did hosting Detroit.  It was good to see the offensive line open some holes for what seemed to be a newly determined Eddie Lacy to blast through.

Chicago – they’ve been playing as well as they could have over the last few weeks, which is a testament to John Fox and the coaching staff.  Chicago doesn’t match up well overall against Green Bay, and it’s showed recently.  With the weather supposed to wet cool, this game could get sloppy which plays to Chicago’s favor but a home primetime game with a bunch of hoopla going on doesn’t bode well for the Bears.  If Green Bay wins the turnover battle and doesn’t get predictable on offense I don’t think the Bears can hang with them and this should be decided by halftime if the Packers ever return to playing how they’re capable.  Should be a relaxing halftime show for all this Thanksgiving with the game in control from Green Bay’s view point…then again I’ve been completely miffed the last four weeks so who knows???

Bears 20
Packers 38

No Super Bowl-winning team has ever lost to the worst team in the NFL, let alone at home.  This loss reminds me of 1997 @ Indianapolis.  Point being, championship-caliber teams don’t lose to poor teams.  Research shows that eventual Super Bowl champions played the “Worst Team in the NFL” 16 times since 1990.  Those eventual Super Bowl champions’ record in those games is 16-0.  Nine consecutive drives ending in a punt last week…9?!?!  Until Aaron Rodgers connected with Richard Rodgers for the Packers’ first touchdown with 5:55 left in the game, Green Bay triple the amount of punts (9) as they did points on the scoreboard (3).  TRIPLE!!!!!  Enough about the Lions fiasco.

The more concerning factor seems to be Aaron Rodgers’ beef with the head coach.  The disconnect on offense seems to stem from Rodgers and fueled by his ego.  By watching Aaron’s antics on the field, it seems nothing is his fault.  Sure, he shows disappointment with an errant throw, but throwing his hands in the air shaking his head after various plays is Marino-esque.  After Abbrederis got crushed (thanks to Aaron’s off-target pass), Rodgers could be seen complaining about how he ran the wrong route, or something to that effect.

On to Minnesota, a team that has built something off last year.  This is a game that I picked the Packers to lose entering the season.  The Vikings enter this game on a 5-game winning streak, meanwhile everyone knows the Packers enter with a 3-game slide.  Green Bay has shown the inability or unwillingness to change/adapt (I’ve stated this before), so why expect anything different?

Minnesota is a balanced team that plays solid defense, and is well coached by Mike Zimmer.  The Packers were lucky to escape TCF Bank Stadium with a victory last year…all that’s changed is Minnesota has improved and become more consistent and Green Bay has, well, fallen apart.  I don’t see how anyone could pick the Packers to win this game aside from blind fandom and/or hope.

Packers 13
Vikings 31

You shouldn’t be alarmed at the title.  Since the expectation is to win the Super Bowl, the play the last 3 games have shown me there’s no reason to believe this team can accomplish the goal.  Almost 1500 yards in three games is embarrassing.  Not even the horrid defense of 2011 (which was the worst in NFL history at the time) surrendered that much!  Let’s take a deeper dive, shall we?

1. By losing on Sunday at Carolina, Aaron Rodgers dropped his record to 11-23 (.324) when facing above .500 (at season’s end) on the road.  Compared to the gold standard, Tom Brady 20-23 (.465), is baaaaad.  Rodgers would need to rattle off 9-straight such victories, just to match Brady.

2. How much does this team miss Jordy Nelson?  I’ll lay out some stats and give you my opinion but feel free to interpret however you like.  In 2014, Rodgers targeted Jordy on 24.9% of all 3^rd downs.  Not just pass attempts, but all 3^rd downs.  Couple that with the difference in 3^rd down conversions from last year to 2015…it’s pretty alarming.  (3^rd down conv. 2014: 47.2%; 2015: 34.1%).  This tells me Jordy was Aaron’s security blanket, which is fine until we learned 87 was no longer going to be part of this team back in August.  Rodgers is either untrusting of his current receiving corps or he’s unable to adapt/change.  I think it’s a combination of the two, however I’m leaning more on the inability (mostly due to coaching) to adapt.

Scheme – the 2^nd half of the Carolina game, the Packers got a bit more aggressive and assertive with play calls, gameplan, and overall execution.  This doesn’t necessarily translate into “taking shots down field,” or “forcing throws into coverage,” but overall gameplan and sense of urgency.  The problem is it took getting absolutely pummeled by Carolina to invigorate such an approach.  I fully expect the Packers to crush the Lions, because Detroit is the epitome of a Hot Mess.

Dom must go.  I can’t reiterate enough how much I hate this man’s scheme, plan, approach, etc.  It’s been the same thing year in and year out.  Offense carrying the entire team until they run into a solid opponent, especially on the road, and have their season ended.  The next opportunity to earn that elusive 12^th road win v. and above .500 opponent will come week 11 @ Minnesota.  Winner essentially is in the driver seat for the division, which in the grand scheme of things, means little.  Super Bowl titles are all that matter.

No time to get into matchup, etc. with this upcoming game v Detroit (they’re terrible).  Win, lose, or draw…next week I’ll talk more about why it’s not crazy to think about a complete overhaul.  From Ted Thompson down to the last assistant coach, but that will have to wait as I’m sure most if not all of you even made it this far.

Lions 10
Packers 42

If you read my season predictions when I began this blog before the season, you saw I projected the Packers to finish 14-2 with home-field advantage.  I thought the 2 losses would come @ Denver and @ Minnesota.  Why I haven’t stuck with my predictions from game-to-game I’m not sure why.  Sticking to my guns now (even though I don’t think the Packers will win, based mostly on how bad GB looked @ Denver last week).

Carolina has incredible Linebackers and a very stout Defensive Line.  5 players on their defense you’ll likely hear quite a bit about are Thomas Davis (LB), Josh Norman (CB), Kawann Short (DT), Star Lotulelei (DT), and super star Luke Kuechly (MLB).  Those five players will represent quite a few issues to this Green Bay offense.  It’s about time Rodgers puts a team on his back and wins a tough road game against a quality defense.  Short and sweet since I’ve written twice already.

Packers 26
Panthers 20 (OT)

After the Bronco Beat down the Packers suffered Sunday, it lead me searching for optimism.  Normally I’m the voice people turn to after hope seems vanished.  However, this prompted me to do a little research, and I don’t like what I found.  This could get a little long (and nerdy) so bear with me J

First – local sports talk radio brought up a topic regarding Aaron Rodger’s and the Packers “rebounding” from poor performances by #12.  There have been 18 instances where Rodgers has thrown for <200 yards in a game (where he started and didn’t leave due to injury) and the Packers played the following week (not counting a playoff loss where the Packers lost and Rodgers threw less than 200 yards – follow me?).  Let’s check the games in which he “under performed.”  The Packers surprisingly are 12-6 in games where Rodgers threw under 200 yards.  His avg. game (in those games, ugh sorry my vocabulary sucks tonight) is 17/28 (62.1%), 171 yards, 1.2TD, .56INT, 88.3 RAT.  Following those games was the point that a local radio host (Homer on espnmilwaukee maybe???) the Packers are 12-5 with the eighteenth game coming up this Sunday @ Carolina.  THE GOOD: The Packers have won 8 straight in these games, 12-5 overall.  Rodgers’ avg. line looks like 24/38, 294 yards, 2.4 TD, .3 INT, 107.3 RAT.

THE BAD: Not many of the follow-up games came against “good” teams.  Their last win v. a winning team, on the road was December 16^th, 2012 (yes that’s not a typo, 2012!!!) at Chicago.

THE UGLY: this lead me to dig deeper; with the push of a friend or two.  I dug into the Packers’ success – or lack thereof – when playing on the road versus a “winning opponent.”  Winning Opponent = any team that finished with an above .500 record that season.  These #’s include postseason, and it’s not pretty.  So much was made of Rodgers 0-9 in his last nine games versus “winning” teams on the road.  I checked back throughout his entire career, outside of 2010, which 3 of those wins (I’m not counting the Super Bowl as that was a Neutral site) came in the playoffs – actually even tougher – is really awful.  His career record in these games is 11-22.  That’s a .333 clip!!  Now, I understand that winning is tough in the NFL, winning on the road is tougher, and winning on the road v. a quality opponent is extremely difficult.  However (man I use that word a lot), that’s not an excuse for losing.  Losing is unacceptable, especially when you have the toughest piece in place to find in all of sports (a legitimate top-tier QB).

Verdict – I compared the Packers’ and Rodgers’ record v. Brady’s and New England’s.  I began in 2008 for both…that’s what Rodgers took over and Brady missed the entire 2008 season.  The results were surprising.  Like I stated earlier, the Packers are 11-22 (.333) in road games v. eventual >.500 opponents whereas the Patriots (the standard, or the target as they’re no. 1) are 9-13.  Since Brady missed the 2008 season (Cassel went 2-1 in said games), Brady and the Pats are 7-12 (.368).  There are a couple things I take away from this.  Hey, ok the Packers had an awful game at Denver and have an opportunity to restore my confidence by beating a 7-0 Carolina team, on the road.  The other is that New England rarely plays “good” opponents on the road.  Many of the Packers have come in the playoffs and the Pats almost never travel in January as they’re always at home or lose at home in the post season.  The Packers have road playoff losses (in Rodgers’ career, in most recent to furthest back) at Sea, at SF, and at Ari.  Rodgers, thanks to a perfect 3-0 road record in 2010, is 3-3 in road playoff games and now with the restored confidence/dominance the Packers show while playing at Lambeau now.

I didn’t discuss anything regarding the Panthers matchup this upcoming Sunday, I’ll get to that Saturday but for now take a look at the stats and what I thought was initially a brutal record for Rodgers and how “Un-clutch” he is, actually made me feel better knowing he’s right in line with Brady (who is the best ever…at least at winning).  If you disagree, feel free to chirp up and I’ll do some research.

Michael Cohen wrote an article roughly 2 weeks ago labeling (accurately) Letroy Guion as a bad person.  The media’s job is to deliver a story and get people to read their…story.  McCarthy was asked about Cohen’s article and said it was “garbage.”  I don’t agree with Mac’s response, but I don’t like the timing of the article.  I’m not blaming anyone for anything, the whole situation doesn’t sit well with me, that and the following game was the most un-enthused (not sure if that’s a word, or the proper one I’m looking for) game I’ve seen played by a Mike McCarthy Packer team.

I understand both sides, the media’s and McCarthy’s, but the one curse for media is having no losses or “bad news” to report and I feel as though a 6-0 start fueled an article about poking holes in the Packer Way.  Again, the article is accurate and legitimate to call out an organization for hypocrisy – I don’t have a point to make just wanted to write hoping it would make me feel better about it…not sure it worked