Let’s recap the Draft, which for Packer nation seems as if it never happened.  We’ll also dive into the elephant in the room…TCA.  I’ll explain later.

Overall, the draft went as expected:

• QBs early and often
• Packers drafted someone on no one’s radar
• Packers seemed to have a plan and execute it, again

As for the entire NFL, the draft went according to plan.  Trevor Lawrence, the “safest, surest pick” since Peyton Manning (or Andrew Luck…mmm….) went #1 overall to Jacksonville.  After that, a bunch of QBs came off the board, but none really jump out at me.  Possibly Justin Fields, however if anyone can screw up a QB, it’s the Chicago Bears. 

Green Bay stayed put and drafted someone off the radar for pretty much everyone at that point.  The scouting reports on Stokes are fairly consistent: he can run and cover.  Seems good to me.  Apparently, his issue is tackling, but of a cornerback’s responsibilities, the highest that ranks is 3^rd.  Cover and play-making are top 2.  Some scouts claim he can fit both outside and in the slot.  Hindsight being 20/20, Joe Barry (the Packers’ new defensive coordinator) has mentioned in today’s NFL, you need a slot corner (last year was Sullivan #39) to play essentially full-time starter snaps.  With Stokes’ world-class speed (a blazing 4.25 forty-yard dash) and solid size (6’1” 194 lbs.), he has the chance to overtake Kevin King as the #2 corner and really help transform this Packers Defense into a consistent top-5 contender. 

The remaining picks all fit the bill for building a roster to fit LaFleur’s scheme.

• 62^nd: Josh Myers, C – Ohio St. Should be expected to takeover the starting C spot from departed Corey Linsley.
• 85^th: Amari Rodgers, WR – Clemson.  Could fit the slot/returner/Tyler Ervin-type role for the offense, maybe more.
• 142^nd: Royce Newman, OL – Ole Miss. Drafting OL after the 1^st round is a great way to keep a great OL for years to come, however they typically take 2+ years to fully develop (see Josh Sitton and TJ Lang).
• 173^rd: T.J. Slaton, DT – Florida.  Tedarrell Slaton is a big man, with quick/athletic feet.  The last we saw like this was Montravious Adams, however while these types haven’t worked as of late, if you do find a gem, it really gives a monster boost to your entire defense.  Hopefully he’s the one, DL needs depth, badly.
• The only other players I’m aware of, or have heard of are Cole Van Lanen (OL – Wisconsin) and Kylin Hill (HB – Miss. St.): Any time you can draft a highly-rated OL from Wisconsin, do it, especially late.  Could turn out to be a Mark Tauscher-type value, if not, it’s a 6^th-round pick and that’s worth the risk.  Hill is intriguing.  He was very productive in college and was rated as a top-10 running back coming into the draft.  Some scouting reports state his “ideal role” would be #2 in a committee, and that’s exactly what the Packers have built (Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are extremely solid).

All in all, the Packers have drafted to build a good defense, an offense built on running the ball (OL and solid HBs) and have not reached on positions where reaching will kill you (WR, TE, DL, and LB).  General Managers and Head Coaches shouldn’t be graded until at least 3 years (4 for me) into the job, and so far, if I had to grade, they’re easily passing.

Now for the elephant in the room.  The Choke Artist, err, Aaron Rodgers.  For those still reading, you very likely know my position on the Quarterback.  I never have any personal issues with him, mainly my take on him is the perception…most Packer fans believe Aaron Rodgers is the greatest QB ever, because of passer rating and getting creative to find anyone but him as the fault of losing in January. 

With the Adam Schefter, and others, releasing reports of tangible evidence Rodgers wants out of Green Bay, that news hi-jacked the entire NFL Draft.  While trading him would be a dream come true for me, it is possible the Packers don’t have ALL of the leverage, then again, maybe they do.  Let’s cover what’s happened since:

• None of this seemed to influence the Packers’ draft plans.
• It’s a game of optics, and if the Packers win that game, they will win the battle between with the QB.  – Considering Aaron cares soooooo much about what people think of him, if the Packers continue to, publicly, show they’re committed to him, Rodgers will come off looking shallow and bitchy.

Nothing needs to happen; however, an ideal scenario would be for Rodgers to play at a high-level again in ’21 so Love can sit for a 2^nd year, then deal Rodgers.  That would be a win-win-win:

1. Rodgers’ value stays high as possible.
2. Love sits and learns for a 2^nd season (for some reason I like having a QB sit 2 years vs. 1).
3. Rodger’s cap hit essentially becomes “manageable.”  Instead of having $38.5M in dead cap, it’ll be “just” be $17,204,000.

As of May 23^rd, where does that leave the Green Bay Packers?  In fairly good shape, overall.  In year 3 of the Matt LaFleur era, the Packers are one of the youngest rosters, with a total of top-4 talent.  They’ve gone 26-6 in the regular season with a 2-2 postseason record, and that’s while transforming their roster to fit the scheme.  Technically they’re improving annually and if they can flip Rodgers for a Herschel Walker-type trade, this could really set them up for a strong run in the next 5-7 years…could.

Before all the hoopla of today unfolded, my intent was to try to figure out whom the Packers would draft, or at least narrow it down to a few prospects.  However, since most are now aware the Packers are willing (and hopefully able) to move on from Aaron Rodgers, it shouldn’t impact their draft one iota. 

There are a couple of positions that would make sense for the Packers to take should the appropriate player be available.  As I covered last year, rookies aren’t difference-makers for Super Bowl champions.  However, the closest to that have been offensive lineman.  Most recently, Tristan Wirfs, from Iowa and seems to be an awesome player and will be for a long time.  Bryan Bulaga was similar…so maybe OL from Iowa are the key in the 1^st round?  Robert Gallery, epic bust, disproves that, however offensive line might be the best value.

Many of the mocks (experts) have Green Bay taking a Wide Receiver, yet there’s plenty of more value to be had elsewhere.  Possibly at Linebacker or Cornerback.  Here are some of the names to keep an eye on…

• Rondale Moore – WR Purdue (although Green Bay doesn’t draft smaller WRs)
• Rashod Bateman – WR Minnesota
• Kadarius Toney – WR Florida
• Elijah Moore – WR Ole Miss (see comment by Rondale Moore)
• Alijah Vera-Tucker – OL USC
• Alex Leatherwood – OL Alabama
• Wyatt Davis – OL Ohio St.
• Jalen Mayfield – OL Michigan
• Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah – LB Notre Dame
• Zaven Collins – LB Tulsa
• Jamin Davis – LB Kentucky
• Asante Samuel Jr. – CB Florida St.
• Jaycee Horn – CB So. Carolina
• Jaelan Phillips – Edge Rusher Miami (Fla.)

I’m guessing Zaven Collins or Jamin Davis.  Collins can rush the passer and Davis can cover.  Both are areas of need, yet can’t have enough of either.  I’m guessing Collins due to his athleticism coupled with pass rushing abilities.  Getting off the field on 3^rd down is key in the NFL, and pass rush is possibly the most important…rookies can have somewhat of an impact too when teamed up with other good pass rushers.

Recap~  We all should’ve known, especially me.  For as much as I’ve clamored the Packers will never win another Super Bowl as long as Rodgers is QB, I sure did think they’d beat Tampa Bay in the best possible scenario to arrive at a Super Bowl as a team could ask…then again.

I began writing this the day after the Super Bowl, but have waited to ensure my mind was clear before finishing.  The main sticking point with the NFC title game: Points off Turnovers.  That’s really it.  Had anyone told me, prior to the game, the Packers would intercept Brady on 3 consecutive 2^nd half drives, I would have bet the house on the Packers to win and booked tickets (if I were a front-line worker in Tampa) for the Super Bowl. 

• Tampa Bay scored 14 points off both (2) turnovers.
• Green Bay scored 6 points off three (3) turnovers.

That’s not gonna get it done vs. almost anyone, especially Tom Brady.  Very reminiscent of the 2014 NFC title game @ Seattle when the Packers’ defense/special teams got Rodgers 5 turnovers, which too amounted to a total of 6 points…noticing a trend here?  I’m not going to hang the losses in San Francisco (2019) and Atlanta (2016) on Rodgers, but I will on the others.  Your defense shows up and outperforms expectations and the offense sputters, that’s one 1 person.  It’s a trend that’s been happening for far too long, and the fan base – just like Favre – covers for the QB.  See Tom Brady.  The Haters always praised his defense, coaching staff, etc. for his wins, yet here he is…winning again. 

Score 21 points off those 3 turnovers and no one is bitching…hell, Green Bay probably beats Kansas City and hoists their 5^th Lombardi Trophy, but alas…

Season Recap~ an odd season due to the lack of fans, but other than that, it really was fairly normal.  The weirdest thing that happened was the additional playoff team in each conference.  It really hurts the 2^nd seed more than any other team.  I had the Packers getting to the Super Bowl and losing to the Ravens.  Obviously, hindsight is 20/20, turns out contradicting yourself typically doesn’t work.  Lamar Jackson is not a true thrower of the football.  Outstanding athlete and can beat you passing, sometimes, but until he can stand in a pocket and beat you with his arm for an entire game, you’ll see many more performances like his in Buffalo than games like Brady’s in the Super Bowl.  In the end, it’s obvious the safe pick (because it turns out right half the time) is to pick Brady in the Super Bowl vs. Mahomes or another studded QB-led solid team. 

Now What? ~  the main concern is the NFL’s Salary Cap will be dropping, considerable, to about $180M.  This mean, even after cutting ILB Christian Kirksey and RT Rick Wagner, the Packers are still about $11-12M over the cap. 

This means it’ll be even tougher to keep HB Aaron Jones, C Corey Linsley, and TE Robert Tonyan.  What about all the hype surrounding getting JJ Watt for a homecoming?!?!  Not worth it.  Again, the cap is a main issue, and getting him at what expense?  Also, he’d need to be available for essentially all 16 games, and absolutely every playoff game, and 100%…none of this halfway stuff.  Too many holes that even a superstar (which he no longer is) DE would fill. 

Other Free Agents?  WR Alshon Jeffery is now available.  He’d be a great addition, if Green Bay could get him on the cheap.  Doubt it, as some team with more room would be willing to pick him up.  From my perspective, the Packers’ strength was their offensive line.  Keep them in tact as having a solid group of 5 is about as tough to put together as any 1 position in the league.  Make resigning Linsley a priority, let Jones walk (HBs are easily replaceable and shouldn’t spend $ on them as it rarely, if ever, works out).  Maybe resign #30 HB Jamaal Williams and tender #85 TE Robert Tonyan.  Keep drafting best available in the draft in April, and possibly find a new starting RT in one of the rookies or if one of last year’s rookies are able to step in – I do NOT trust #77 T Billy Turner, especially at his price, cut him too.

All in all, the Packers are now in a tough spot due to drafting well and signing free agents.  Couple that with the falling cap due to the reaction to COVID-19, and here we are.  Thankfully the Packers kept EVP/Director – Football Operations, Russ Ball (cap genius), to maneuver around these dark waters. 

Until the Draft (April 29-May 1).

Is it worth looking at how the Packers and Buccaneers got here?  Typically, I’d spend some time reviewing, however, let’s do just a quick review.

Review~ Green Bay was the far superior team (v LA), it showed, and there was never a reason to be nervous.  Even when the Rams cut it to 7, the stats and flow of the game was all on Green Bay’s side.  As for Tampa Bay, they benefitted from a weak arm from Drew Brees, and forced 4 turnovers, converting the first 3 for touchdowns, and the fourth and final one to run out the clock with a 10-point lead.

So here we are.

Preview~

#5 (13-5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ #1 (14-3) Green Bay Packers

It’s not difficult to scare Packer nation as we’re used to our team choking in January.  No team has lost on the last play of the game in the NFL postseason than the Green Bay Packers.  Some may say, “Well, that’s because we’re always in the postseason!  So of course, you’re going to have heartbreak!”  While true, how much easier was it to stomach the beating from the 49ers last year vs. the giveaway to Seattle in the 2014 (Jan. ’15) title game?  The main component, and those that talk with me about the NFL know I put essentially everything on the QB and Rodgers had played awfully in his previous 4 NFC title game bouts.  To paint a more accurate picture, I’ve taken out the garbage time stats he accrued in the blowout losses to Atlanta (2016) and San Francisco (2019).  

Rodgers in NFC Championship Games
Year	Comp	Att	Comp%	Yards	TD	INT	Rat
2010	17	30	56.7%	244	0	2	55.4
2014	19	34	55.9%	178	1	2	55.8
2016*	27	45	60.0%	287	3	1	91.6
2019**	31	39	79.5%	326	2	2	97.2
Totals	94	148	63.5%	1035	6	7	78.0

A 78.0 rating is terrible, even for average QBs.  Now let’s take a look after removing the 2016 and 2019 garbage time stats.  Keep in mind, in 2016 @ Atlanta, it was 24-0 at halftime, Green Bay got the ball after half, went 3-and-out, and got it back down 31-0 before Rodgers started putting some stats up.

As for last year, it was 27-0 at half, so he began after halftime.

True Stats: Rodgers in NFC Championship Games
	Comp	Att	Comp%	Yards	TD	INT	Rat
^adjusted^	57	96	59.38%	697	1	6	59.2

That’s how you go 1-3 in NFC Championship games; a 59.2 rating.  However, while he may not be able to completely erase his ineptitude in the previous 4 games, there’s a serious opportunity to rewrite his legacy, and it can take a fairly big step in the proper direction, come Sunday.  Outduel Tom and you win.  Obviously, I’ll “settle” for winning even if he plays awfully, but the likelihood of playing well results in a W is quite high.  Play well, and you move on to play in Tampa Bay for Super Bowl LV. 

Speaking of Tom Brady, it’s truly remarkable a 43-year-old QB has led his team into a Conference Championship, and even though I didn’t think they’d get here (I picked Tampa Bay to go 9-7, get the 7^th seed and lose in the divisional round, not too shabby) is anyone really surprised?  Obviously, everyone’s eyes will be glued to see the matchup of each QB vs the opposing defense, which is how it should be.  The Bucs seems to have the more-balanced, consistent, team, but the difference is minuscule.  Tampa’s D surrendered 30 or more points 3x this season, whereas Green Bay’s wasn’t far behind with 4 occasions. 

There are a couple of wrinkles that are throwing me for a loop, and I’m chucking it up to each of these teams are far different from their early season forms…for instance, in week 5, Tampa lost to Chicago…the Bears, remember were 5-1 at one point this season, ended 8-8, and really were never a good team – which was easy to see for many fans.  The Bucs’ dismantling of the Packers is well-known; again, I chalk that up to Rodgers seemingly giving up after his 2^nd consecutive drive resulting in essentially a 2^nd pick-6.  I’m willing to bet the farm he doesn’t throw back-to-back INTs on consecutive drives again, in his career, let alone this NFC title game.  Speaking of NFC Championship game performances, how do these guys fare in such games?

Brady in AFC Championship Games
Year	Comp	Att	Comp%	Yds	TD	INT	Rat
2001	12	18	66.7%	115	0	0	84.3
2003	22	37	59.5%	237	1	1	76.1
2004	14	21	66.7%	207	2	0	130.5
2006	21	34	61.8%	232	1	1	79.5
2007	22	33	66.7%	209	2	3	66.4
2011	22	36	61.1%	239	0	2	57.5
2012	29	54	53.7%	320	1	2	62.3
2013	24	38	63.2%	277	1	0	93.9
2014	23	35	65.7%	226	3	1	100.4
2015	27	56	48.2%	310	1	2	56.4
2016	32	42	76.2%	384	3	0	127.5
2017	26	38	68.4%	290	2	0	108.4
2018	30	46	65.2%	348	1	2	77.1
Total	304	488	62.3%	3394	18	14	83.2
Wins	203	306	66.3%	2255	14	9	91.1
Losses	101	182	55.5%	1139	4	5	70.3

 The fact this graph is this long is far past impressive.  However, as you can see, he’s very up-and-down, and has thrown his share of interceptions.  Also, I’d argue this Packers team is far superior to all of the opponents Brady faced in each of his previous FOURTEEN conference title games, except maybe outside of the 2013 Broncos…but even then, that team got destroyed by Seattle in the Super Bowl.  What I pull from this chart is Tom isn’t unbeatable in these games, yet the man has found a way to win 69% of them, more than impressive.

What does this all mean as for today?  Probably nothing.  However, I do think it’s important to understand the value and impact a QB’s play influences the team’s outcome.

Two more points before the Matchup (if you haven’t blown over this already). 

1. The week 6 beating is hard to overlook (and shouldn’t be), whether it was Rodgers not caring, Josh Jackson starting and has essentially been a “healthy scratch”, or it was Kenny Clark’s 1st game back from a groin, which hampered him until last week (and it showed)—this Packers team is different.  In essence, if King plays, instead of Josh Jackson at CB2, or even recently signed Tramon Williams… and instead of 10% Clark, we’ll have 90+% Clark.  Lastly, Ty Summers started at ILB that game and since the group of Barnes, Kirksey, and Martin have been close to “Very Good.”
2. Since 2011, the Packers have only won the rematch in the postseason from a team that defeated them in the regular season, twice.  Once in 2012 when they beat Joe Webb and the Vikings in the Wild Card from having lost in week 17 to Christian Ponder, in what was a meaningless game for Green Bay.  The other came in 2016 after Green Bay got pounded by Dallas, in Lambeau and we all remember Rodgers going down to Arlington and put on a show (that throw to Cook) and upset the #1 seeded Cowboys.  It’s been ugly otherwise.   

Matchup~ the chart has incorporated each teams’ postseason game(s) and where they ultimately would’ve ranked had those been their final regular season statistics:

Champ.	TB D v GB O				TB O v GB D
	Pass	Rush	Total	Points	Pass	Rush	Total	Points
TB	245.8 (21st)	82.2 (1st)	327.9 (6th)	22.1 (T-7th)	287.8 (4th)	99.3 (25th)	387.1 (6th)	30.8 (3rd)
GB	258.9 (9th)	135.7 (8th)	394.6 (4th)	31.8 (1st)	216.9 (5th)	111.8 (12th)	328.7 (7th)	22.8 (12th)

Typically, the points are the rankings of where to keep an eye on, however, here it’s too close to pass up…the TB D vs GB O, in yardage (6^th vs 4^th, respectively) is awfully tight, and even more constricted the TB O vs GB D (6^th vs 7^th, respectively) is as tight as can be.  Since both the Bucs’ and Packers’ special teams’ units suck, the eye will be on each offense’s ability to move the ball down the field and thus bringing us to Red Zone execution.  The Bucs are very good, meanwhile the Packers are exceptional (best in the NFL).  As always, turnovers will be the difference-maker.

Prediction~ think I covered everything?  Prob not.

Buccaneers 21
Packers 30

Season: 14-3
Overall: 69-35

The Green Bay Packers have enjoyed their well-earned bye in the 2020 NFL playoffs (yes 2020 as that’s how the NFL tracks their entire season of when they kick-off, I like it).  It’s been well-documented now, but Green Bay signed T Jared Veldheer from Indianapolis’ Practice Squad (he started at LT @ Buffalo in the Wild Card Round).  He has since tested positive for, well yeah, I’ll leave it there.

When working to figure out how the Packers will fare in each match-up, if you’ve been reading along, you’ll see I track their rankings in the major categories (Offensive and Defensive ranks among yardage and points).  With an entire season under our belts, teams’ rankings give more light to that and I think is a very good gauge as to a team’s quality (likeliness to win and move on). 

Of the main stats to track, especially the deeper in a season you are, is total point differential.  While it could be a bit misleading, you’ll notice a trend in the top 10:

1. Ravens +165
2. Saints +145
3. Packers +140
4. Buccaneers +137
5. Bills +126
6. Chiefs +111
7. Steelers +104
8. Colts +89
9. Seahawks +88
10. Rams +76

While each of these team made the postseason, you can see the rankings of these teams seem rather accurate on a strength basis, aside from Kansas City, whom sat their starters in week 17 and lost by 17 points.  It’s safe to assume they would’ve won, had they tried, thus giving them at least a 20-point swing (putting them about +131).  Which puts them right at or near Tampa Bay, with whom they clashed and won by a close margin after a record-setting 1^st half performance.  My point, is while this is nothing to live by, it’s a great barometer of each team’s power potential. 

I’ve taken this a step further and averaged in their Offensive and Defensive rankings to give a true Power Ranking of sorts. Without getting into the details (I’m happy to share if you ask), it determines the most balanced team.  For example, the Packers finished the season with a 6.00 power ranking; i.e., they had the 1^st ranked offense, 13^th ranked defense, finished 7^th in turnover differential, and 3^rd in net points.  Add those together and it averages to a 6^th ranking…of course many teams will have similar numbers as they’re averages, but in the graph below, you get an idea of true strength/balance of each team.  Pretty nerdy stuff, but some may like it.

2020 NFL Playoff Teams
Team	O rank	D rank	TO rank	Pt Diff Rank	Total Power Rank
Saints	5	5	3	2	3.75
Ravens	7	2	10	1	5
Buccaneers	3	8	6	4	5.25
Packers	1	13	7	3	6
Steelers	12	3	3	7	6.25
Colts	9	10	2	8	7.25
Chiefs	6	11	8	6	7.75
Bills	2	16	10	5	8.25
Titans	4	24	1	12	10.25
Seahawks	8	15	10	9	10.5
Rams	23	1	21	10	13.75
Browns	14	21	9	16	15
Football Team	25	4	23	14	16.5
Bears	22	14	23	15	18.5

To give this further context, you can see the top 4 teams all remain, with the lowest remaining of Cleveland and LA Rams (also low seeds, 6s).  How have the last 10 Super Bowl champions ranked in this manner?  Glad you asked:

Super Bowl Champs Last 10 Years
Year	Champ	O rank	D rank	TO rank	Pt Diff rank	Total Power Rank
2019	Chiefs	5	7	7	4	5.75
2018	Patriots	4	7	5	5	5.25
2017	Eagles	3	4	4	2	3.25
2016	Patriots	3	1	3	1	2
2015	Broncos	19	4	19	10	13
2014	Patriots	4	8	2	1	3.75
2013	Seahawks	9	1	1	2	3.25
2012	Ravens	10	13	7	11	10.25
2011	Giants	9	25	7	19	15
2010	Packers	10	2	4	2	4.5

They averaged 6.6 ranking, which gives you an idea of teams that truly “Got in and got hot.”  I’ve always claimed that 2010 Packers team was far better than revered.  Had Rodgers not been concussed, they go 12-4 with the likely 2 seed and nothing is considered an upset.  However, looking at those BAD teams that won (2011 Giants, 2015 Broncos, and 2012 Ravens), those are the outliers.  Meaning 30% of the past winners wouldn’t be considered Legit Contenders.  What does this all mean for Saturday?

	LA D v GB O				LA O v GB D
	Pass	Rush	Total	Points	Pass	Rush	Total	Points
LAR	190.7 (1st)	91.3 (3rd)	281.9 (1st)	18.5 (1st)	250.9 (13th)	126.1 (10th)	377.0 (11th)	23.3 (23rd)
GB	256.6 (9th)	132.4 (8th)	389.0 (5th)	31.8 (1st)	221.2 (7th)	112.9 (13th)	334.0 (9th)	23.1 (13th)

Everyone will highlight the Packers’ 1^st scoring offense vs. the Rams’ 1^st (in pass, total yards, and points) defense.  However, the key may be the other match-up.  Yes, everyone should be well aware of ALL WORLD DL #99 Aaron Donald and superstar CB #20 Jalen Ramsey, and the key offensive component LA features is WR #10 Cooper Kupp.  He’s a modern-day Wes Welker or poor man’s Julian Edelman.  Very effective and crucial on 3^rd downs for the Rams offense.  What (it seems like) EVERYONE is forgetting, is that Jaire Alexander is arguably every bit as good as Ramsey.  While not as tall, just as effective.  Also, to note, the previous matchup from these two teams, could be considered Jaire’s coming out party.  Alexander had 5 passes defensed, and made his mark as a rising star.  Actually, the Packers (at the time, a far inferior team) controlled that game essentially throughout.  The Packers put such pressure on LA, that they were down 10-0 and faked a punt just to get momentum.  The momentum swung, twice, once when GB had the ball, up 10-0, on their own 1 and on the first play, Aaron Jones was tackled in the backfield for a safety.  Then the final dagger, was after GB had driven down for a go-ahead TD (27-26), LA rebutted with a FG drive of their own (up 29-27) with 1:56 left in the game, KR Ty Montgomery fumbled and the offense never saw the ball again.  What’s changed since then (aside from the Rams updating their logo and jerseys) is LA getting Jalen Ramsey on defense, and the Packers completely flipping the roster (for the better, obviously) and becoming far more balanced. 

Now this game is at Lambeau, and while the forecast isn’t too lethal (high of 36°and a low of 25°), the Packers will deem this to be “warm,” whereas the Rams will think this is “cold,” or at least “not that bad.”  Is there much stock to put into it?  Probably not, but the Packers are (finally) built for this weather.  They feature as good a backfield as anyone in the NFL, and all 3 backs offer different attributes.  Aaron Jones is dynamic, Jamaal Williams is steady (pass blocking too, which can throw teams for a loop when in), and A.J. Dillon is a bruiser.  All capable of being a feature back in any given game.  LaFleur has been masterful in utilizing them to produce maximum results—couple that with a QB who’s fully bought in and in sync—it seems that Packer nation should have little to worry about. 

Bravo if you’re still here with me.  When discussing with a good friend this week, he mentioned “I like our chances too, beat this team 9 times out of 10…but football.” Yes, the wording is intentionally choppy, and it’s important because the message is delivered.  If you’re still scared/worried, keep in mind this Rams team lost to the Jets just (what will be) 27 days earlier, at home, in a must-win, when the Jets were benefitting from losing…Devil’s Advocate: The Jets beat the LA Rams.  Aka, the far inferior team can win, sometimes.

Rams 17
Packers 24

Season: 13-3
Overall: 68-35

*Yes, I believe I’ve picked the Packers every game so far, it’s technically worked. *

A confidence-builder, and possibly a crow serving to the entire Packer nation (yours truly included). 

Review~ the Packers’ offense did what many expected them to do, but the defense pleasantly surprised many.  While the game was essentially meaningless (entering both weeks 16 and 17, Green Bay still needs to beat Chicago to secure the 1 seed- or needing Seattle to lose). 

Defensive Coordinator, Mike Pettine, has been outspoken about his focus on getting to the passer even if it’s to disregard stopping the run.  This past week showed he’s willing/capable of committing to stopping the run, and the Packers showed how effective it can be when you take away your opponents’ strength.  Keep in mind, Tennessee entered the game with the highest scoring offense in the league (tied with KC).  They’re a balanced offense with a solid TE (Smith), 2 solid WRs (Davis and Brown), the NFL’s best HB (Henry), and a very solid QB (Tannehill).  14 points.  If the Packers hold their opponents to 14 points, I’ll guarantee a victory every time.

From my statement above, Crow-Server.  There were a select-few who thought the A.J. Dillon pick was awesome.  Goes without saying, he proved why.  However, I admit that Rashan Gary has seemed to arrive, and I whiffed there.  While I wasn’t sure if he was going to be downright awful, I’ve always graded him vs. Christian Wilkins (DT from Clemson, drafted by Miami 1 pick after Gary).  It seems that Gary is now a legit pass-rusher, getting constant push, which disrupts the passing game in the best way.  He had, possibly, his best game as a pro vs. Tennessee.  While the Titans’ OL isn’t meant for pass-blocking, Gary did what he was supposed to do and got after the QB, and created havoc in the backfield to not allow Henry to keep in rhythm. 

All in all, a great confidence-booster, but other than that, a meaningless game as week 17 is still a must-win.

Preview~ Bear week!  Chicago enters the game with their season on the line.  If they win, they’re in (7^th seed).  If they lose, they’ll need Arizona to lose to Los Angeles.  Expect Chicago, and Nagy, to pull out all the stops.  When it comes to that, Nagy usually gets way too cute and completely bites him in the ass.  Also, while Mitch has played well since “earning” his starting job back (3-2, with a 99.3 passer rating), the one game where he wasn’t so great was vs. Green Bay.  This is typical, as for some reason (not a surprise to me or many of you), if you keep a QB like Mitch in the pocket and force him to throw, consistently over the course of a game the odds are vastly in your favor.  He’s not consistently accurate and will not always make the obvious-right decision which leads to awful turnovers or a lack of 3^rd down conversions.  Where Mitch is effective is when he’s running/scrambling AND has a clean pocket – however, he needs wide-open targets to do damage and the Packers have been far better with coverage than in years passed…

	GB O v Chi D				GB D v Chi O
	Pass	Rush	Total	Points	Pass	Rush	Total	Points
GB	9th	8th	3rd	1st	6th	14th	7th	16th
Chi	13th	15th	11th	9th	22nd	24th	25th	18th

By now you’ve heard the earth-shattering news about all-world LT David Bakhtiari suffering a season-ending knee injury.  While this is an epic blow, the Packers have gone 3 games without #69 this year and fared OK.  They were weeks 7-9 (@ SF, v Min, @ Hou), and while the competition is none in the playoffs, the Packers won 2 of those games, and would’ve won all 3 if not for Dalvin Cook going bonkers.  In those games, the Packers gave up sacks: 1 for no loss; the other for a loss of 11 (which might’ve been on Rodgers).  The Packers also were without C Corey Linsley for 3 games and fared very well.  With the return of Linsley last week, really boosting the OL, it mitigates the blow of the loss of Bakhtiari.  There are options of what Green Bay can do, but Pro Bowl Guard (2^nd year man) #74 Elgton Jenkins, is so versatile and special that he can fill-in quite nicely at LT if that’s what’s asked of him.  Packers OL coach, Adam Stenavich, has done a remarkable job since joining the staff.  Everyone should have the utmost confidence in him that he’ll get the Packers’ strength (yes, the OL) in top form.

The other news was Green Bay adding Snacks (Damon Harrison #98).  He’s a huge body that can only add depth in the DL rotation.  Listed at 6’3” 339lbs, and with quite a bit of experience playing at a high-level, his production will be called upon and likely have a positive effect come January.  Running the ball is essential to win in cold weather, and stopping the run (see week 16 vs. Derrick Henry) is the best way for the defense to dominate. 

The major difference between this match-up and last is the Bears will have their stud DL, Akiem Hicks #96, back.  He’s a major force in the middle and dictates what the offense is able to do.  He’s such a disruptive force that just pounding away up the middle may not be the best method. 

Sticking with the Bears’ defense, they’ll be without 2 of their top-3 cornerbacks.  Buster Skrine and solid standout rookie, Jaylon Johnson are set to miss week 17, thus opening up MVS for some major action…  I doubt the Packers will be able to hang 41 again, mainly due to Hicks playing and Bakhtiari missing, but the Packers offense should be able to move the ball and control the game.  Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but win the turnover battle and win the game.  It’s that simple. 

Expect to get the Bears’ best shot.

Packers 27
Bears 21

Season: 12-3
Overall: 67-35

Review~ After carefully re-watching the Panthers’ game, there were a couple of items that stood out. 

• Rashan Gary has either made great strides (he has improved a bit from last year) OR Preston Smith has regressed; or both.
• LaFleur stuck with the ground game and it translated to an ugly win, which was all that was needed.
• Red-Zone/Gold-Zone + Goal-Line Offense is outstanding in execution and efficiency.
• Inside LBs are progressing, especially the rookies: Kamal Martin (#54); Krys Barnes (#51).
• Darnell Savage is vastly improving, and he was already solid to begin with…
• With Savage’s improvement, Pettine moved Adrian Amos inside on passing-situations to use his athleticism to cover quick crossers and tight ends; very effective.
• Allen Lazard is very consistent and a solid 2^nd WR in this offense.  He fits the scheme quite well.
• Mason Crosby is as reliable as possibly expected- that could translate into a weapon in January in the cold.
• The Panthers missed McCaffrey, there were quite a few holes that either weren’t hit on-time, or just missed altogether which could’ve swung this game into a much closer battle.

Current Standing~ again, as writing this (Sun morning), the Packers sit in the 1 seed and if (my math is correct) the Rams best Seattle this afternoon, the Packers could clinch home-field advantage with a win.  Meaning the Seahawks would have 5 losses, the Saints 4 losses, and the Packers 12 wins.  With Green Bay holding the H2H tiebreaker over New Orleans (wow, looking back that win was monumental) the NFC runs through Lambeau AND Green Bay earns the ONLY bye in this years’ updated playoff setup.

Preview~ enter, possibly, the toughest challenge yet: the Tennessee Titans.  Led by Head Coach, Mike Vrabel, Tennessee prides themselves on punching teams in the face.  A typical kryptonite for Packer teams over the last decade.  The Titans’ lead star is Derrick Henry.  The most aggressive/physical runner of the football since possibly Earl Campbell.  The Packers’ rush defense will get the toughest test possible, at the proper time.  If Green Bay can not only win this game, but “hold” Henry in check, that should solidify any concerns about whether Green Bay can win the Super Bowl…maybe (Mahomes). 

	Ten O v GB D				Ten D v GB O
	Pass	Rush	Total	Points	Pass	Rush	Total	Points
Ten	19th	2nd	2nd	T-1st	27th	15th	27th	21st
GB	9th	11th	8th	14th	8th	8th	4th	3rd

As you can see, each teams’ offense possesses a distinct advantage…After the 2^nd half malfunction, the Packers slipped from the top-scoring offense allowing Tennessee and Kansas City to upgrade to a tie for 1^st, and the Packers slipped to 3^rd.  This could be a high-scoring affair, but I believe the best way to win is to own the line of scrimmage and commit to the ground game as LaFleur did last week vs. Carolina.  Henry is going to get going a bit, but him having 125-160 yards and 1-2 TDs doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t blow this team out of the water.  The thing that sticks in my mind is Tennessee getting absolutely blasted by a Baker Mayfield-led Browns team, where (while it’s not your typical Browns team) the Titans found themselves down 38-7 at halftime, at Nissan Stadium!  Rodgers should be able to conduct a similar symphony and get back to becoming the top-scoring team in the NFL.

Titans 28
Packers 41

Season: 11-3
Overall: 66-35

Review~ anyone with 2 eyes – or 1 eye for that matter – could see the connection between Rodgers and Adams as something more than special.  The two connected on another touchdown in 8 consecutive games.  This is the life-blood of the offense, maybe the team.  The defense seems to shut teams down in stretches of games, but never for an entire game.  This is all well and good in the regular season, but come playoff time is a dangerous way to live. 

The Lions opened up with the short-passing game and it worked, as it usually does, vs. a Bend-but-don’t-Break defense.  For those that don’t understand, the concept of a Bend But Don’t Break D is to force the offense to put together long, methodical drives to score.  This puts the onus on the offense to not have commit a mistake (holding penalty, sack, or turnover) – the likelihood obviously increases with longer drives.  If Stafford is a good enough QB to captain a below average roster down the field and score a TD, it’s a bit disconcerting what a Brees, Wilson, or Brady could do…either way, the entire concept is banking on Rodgers being able to convert at a higher rate vs. their defenses as opposed to them converting vs. Green Bay’s…which is always the case in any game, ever. Hence why QB’s are judged by Super Bowl titles.  I digress…the Packers did what they do, scored 5 times out of their 8 drives, with their last drive closing out the game.  Even at that rate, it seemed like they weren’t hitting on all cylinders, but what will be key moving forward is the run game.  Holding the ball for long drives and keeping their defense fresh and wearing out the opponents’ D will be crucial to how far this team can go.  Green Bay dominated time of possession once again, holding the ball for over 35 minutes.  They do that AND win the turnover battle (or don’t lose it), I can’t see how they lose a game.

Current Standing~ with the help from Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia, the Packers move into the 1^st seed in the NFC playoff picture due to the Eagles beating the Brees-less Saints.  New Orleans has the toughest matchup possible this week, hosting Kansas City, with minimal to no fans.  Should the Packers get a little help from Washington (hosts Seattle) and the Chiefs (@ Saints), and the Packers take care of business tonight, they could be sitting pretty heading into the final 2 games of the regular season. 

Preview~ enter the Carolina Panthers.  This is a bad football team with some top talent, so there are a few guys to keep an eye on.  Obviously, their best player is star running back, Christian McCaffery.  Last year in Lambeau he had 26 touches for 141 yards and a TD, which was actually a decent job by the Packers’ D…points to how good he is.  As I write this, McCaffery is listed as “Doubtful,” which doesn’t stop their ESPN beat writer from picking them to have a “last-minute comeback win over the Packers.”  If the Packers find a way to lose this game, you can be all but certain they have zero shot at winning the Super Bowl.  Super Bowl-caliber-winning teams don’t lose late-December home games to crap teams missing their star player. 

	Car D v GB O				Car O v GB D
	Pass	Rush	Total	Points	Pass	Rush	Total	Points
Car	23rd	13th	21st	20th	15th	20th	19th	19th
GB	2nd	10th	2nd	1st	12th	11th	8th	17th

You can see the Packers, once again, have the distinct advantage when they have the ball.  They’re facing the 20^th-ranked defense (in terms of points allowed) and should have no problem hanging another 30+.  It’s an even match-up when the Panthers have the ball, but even then, their playmakers are at the Wide Receiver position, no longer the HB or TE (Olsen gone is a huge help too).  Teddy Two-Gloves should see a fierce pass-rush, hopefully from rising helper, Rashan Gary (if he keeps progressing, I’ll gladly admit I was wrong) and maybe Preston Smith can contribute something this year?

Keep pace…

Panthers 16
Packers 38

Season: 10-3
Overall: 65-35

Green Bay did what was needed, handled a far inferior team.  It got a little close for comfort there after the punt return for 6 (special teams has been atrocious so far, and must be remedied before January).  If you’ve been reading with, or know, me you see that QB-play is essentially the difference between winning and losing, regardless of regular season vs. postseason.  Not just stats, but overall marching the offense down the field and making key plays at key times.  Rodgers has, in each of the 9 wins, been magnificent, but in the 3 losses can point to key points where the offense has failed.  In last week’s game, Rodgers was once again, very solid.

Review~ notice when Philly got back into the game, the Packers’ offense went 3 & out on consecutive drives, much like the Colts game when up 28-17 in the 3^rd quarter, the offense could’ve iced the game (either by taking over momentum or building a large enough lead, late OR both).  Also, the offense did a fine job closing the game with a complete team-like effort on Aaron Jones’ 77-yard TD.  What’s needed for that type of run?  Downfield blocking, and you’ll notice both MVS and Bakhtiari blocking downfield the entire way, hell, Bakhtiari damn near beat everyone to the end zone (I guess he reached almost 17 mph)!  You get that type of effort in January (hopefully in Lambeau), this team will be impossible to beat.  It’s pretty safe to say that as long as the offense limits 3 & outs and doesn’t turn the ball over, they can’t be beaten.  The offense is too good…the defense, well…it should be good enough if the offense continues to be who they are…

Since entering my 20’s, I’ve gone from a players fan to a team fan.  What I mean by that is player accomplishments are meaningless to me—aka Rodgers winning MVP is moot as I’d rather the team win the Super Bowl, because what good is a player winning MVP if the team doesn’t win a title?  You know the answer, aside from dividing a fan base due to arguing, nothing.  Rodgers is, however, playing at an MVP-level and it’s reflected on the team’s record.  He was near flawless again, as was Adams and the offensive line in this game vs. Philly, let’s keep it rolling.

Preview~ travelling to Detroit always seems to be an issue.  Hell, even the last 3 games vs. Detroit (regardless of venue) the Packers have come out quite sluggish.  Keep in mind, last year the Packers never lead in all 120 minutes of game action vs. the Lions, but Mason Crosby field goals as time expired gave them 2 victories.  Earlier this year, the Packers got down early, 14-3.  This was due to Detroit committing early to the run, then for (what bad teams do) some reason, abandoning attacking the Packers’ weakness and allowed Green Bay to gain a rhythm and completely takeover the game—scoring an unanswered 31 points with a pick-6 by Chandon Sullivan. 

	O-Rush	O-Pass	O-Total	O-Points	D-Rush	D-Pass	D-Total	D-Points
GB	9th	5th	2nd	1st	14th	12th	11th	15th
Det	28th	11th	19th	19th	28th	26th	28th	31st

Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur should be salivating at this matchup, again.  The Packers are going to see one of the worst defenses in the entire league, in a dome, sans fans.  This should resemble a 7-on-7 practice for Rodgers.  Look for Green Bay to get healthy, experience, and rolling heading into the most important part of the season.  Tavon Austin should get some playing time with Tyler Ervin hitting IR again, as well as John Runyan possibly starting without having to see all-world DT Fletcher Cox.  Usually, the Packers come out foggy at Detroit, and struggle.  While it’s a division rival (as are all of Green Bay’s division opponents), this Detroit team has gone through a Coach firing, injuries, and just don’t know how to close out games (aside from last week at Chicago, which was hilarious). 

Look for Green Bay to keep running and getting (hopefully) A.J. Dillon some reps as he comes off the Covid list, he could be a key cog down the stretch, a bruising runner in the cold is always welcome.

Current Standing~ after getting a little help from the Giants (beat Seattle), the Packers sit alone in the 2^nd seed, as of now.  Keep in mind, should Green Bay win out, then New Orleans would only have to drop 1 game for Green Bay to obtain the very important 1 seed.  This week, we’re rooting for Philadelphia to best the Taysom Hill-led Saints…Jalen Hurts is getting the start for the Eagles and it may just be enough of a spark for a needed upset.

Packers 34
Lions 21

Season: 9-3
Overall: 64-34

Review~ the Packers showed what turnovers can do to a far superior team…blast an inferior team out of the water.  Then, like week 1, the Packers’ defense allows a concerning number of garbage-time yards and points.

The major difference, easily seen by anyone, was QB-play.  Trubisky finished: 26/46, 242 yards, 3TD, 2INT, 74.7 RAT.  Whereas Rodgers lit up the Bears’ 6^th ranked defense for: 21/29, 211 yards, 4TD, 0INT, 132.3 RAT.  Completely controlling the game and walking away with an easy victory.  The issue, as typical with this season is the defense.  This sentence may get lost in the fray, but the defense will likely show up enough to give the offense an opportunity to win the game and after the missed opportunity…well, let’s focus on the now.

Preview~ enter the Philadelphia Eagles (3-7-1, 3^rd in the NFC East, .5 GB).  Head Coach, Doug Pederson is coaching for his job – as of this morning, it seems that this is a must-win in order for the 2017 Super Bowl-winning Head Coach to keep his job.  This is what happens when you tie your career to the wrong QB (keep in mind, they decided to let Nick Foles walk and pay Carson Wentz). 

	Offense	Defense
	Rush	Pass	Total	Points	Rush	Pass	Total	Points
Phi	13th	27th	28th	25th	24th	8th	9th	16th
GB	10th	6th	4th	1st	14th	15th	14th	19th

The Eagles are awful on offense and actually decent at holding their opponents on defense…however are middle of the road as far as points allowed.  My guess, without watching ALL of their games, is they’re awful in the field position game – translating to their opponents not having to drive all that far to score, because they do eventually score.  By solely looking at the match-up, the Packers shouldn’t have an issue with the Eagles…then again this is another opportunity for the defense to shut down a potentially dangerous offense.  Some (me included) still believe Doug Pederson is a solid play-caller and offensive mind.  If Green Bay can hold Philadelphia to under 20 points, that would be quite the accomplishment – at least this season.  Rodgers & Co. should keep pace and hang another 30+ on this Eagles team, at home.  It also shouldn’t come as a surprise if they hang their third 40-burger, which would greatly help the D get into a groove. 

As it currently sits, the Packers are the 2^nd seed in the NFC and need to keep pace, and root for both Seattle and New Orleans to lose.  The Packers currently hold the tiebreaker over each, but never hurts to gain ground.

Soo…go Falcons and Giants.

Eagles 24
Packers 41

Season: 8-3
Overall: 63-34