Review: Packers 27; Patriots 24 (OT)~ when looking at the game stats, Green Bay dominated in almost every statistic, except turnovers. Looking back, aside from Rodgers’ rare gaffe before halftime. The Packers ran 71 total plays for 443 yards and won the time of possession 36:49 to New England’s 33:11. The dynamic duo of Jones & Dillon combined for 37 touches (52%) and 199 yards (45%) of production, and once again one of the 2 backs was producing far more per touch than the other, but the incorporation of both is paramount for the offense’s production/effectiveness.

For as bad as Rodgers was in the 1st half, he was just that good in the second half. He commanded the offense to 20 points in the 2nd half + overtime. In those 6 possessions (not counting the last play at the end of regulation), the Packers scored 2 touchdowns (should’ve been 3 if Doubs holds onto that one in the end zone), two field goals and two punts. All in all, pretty good vs. a solid defense, and having no momentum.

Speaking of good defense, the Packers gave up only 271 yards while playing a 3rd-string QB, did enough to make New England play “safe” and only gave up one big play – which should’ve never happened with the play clock expiring well before the snap. Rashan Gary came up huge, albeit nullified on the Rodgers’ pick-6 on the ensuing drive – Gary had a strip sack on a 1st & 10 from the GB 22 with 1:04 left, that saved at least 3 points, and possibly 7 and could’ve been a huge swing had Rodgers not thrown the interception.

On the biggest stand of the game, the defense was tasked with the forcing a 3 & out in overtime after the offense failed to get a first down on their possession of OT. Green Bay gave up 5 yards and kept New England out of field goal range, setting up Rodgers with a “Next score wins” situation, and the Packers produced their best drive of the season – in my opinion – and closed the game out.

While Packer fans should have high expectations, this team is constructed to win games in any manner, and this is a prime example of that. Just keep winning, keep games close with running the ball and playing good defense, then trust your quarterback will be able to make a big time throw, when needed.

Preview~ on paper, this is a huge matchup. Both teams are 3-1 with this having a high-potential of tiebreaking scenarios for playoff seeding. If the Giants are going to continue to be the surprise of the NFL, as there are always surprise teams in the NFL annually. The Packers lost to Minnesota in week 1 this year, so keeping pace is paramount for the divisional race, and the Giants are 1 game behind Philadelphia (the NFL’s last remaining unbeaten), so they want to keep pace too.

Matchup~ both teams can run the ball, neither can stop it. Expect a ton of ground game as each team is built around pounding the rock. Also, each team is solid vs. the pass, while that may be because their opponents don’t pass because of their effectiveness of running the ball. For example, the Giants have faced an average of the 28th passing offense and the Packers have faced the 20th.

As you can see, these are fairly evenly matched teams, at least based on statistics through 4 weeks of the season. However, the big difference has been competition. The Packers have faced far better foes than New York. The Giants are almost carbon copies of the Chicago Bears, and they just played each other, last week. There were 2 bad teams that New York was able to pull it out, then again, Daniel Jones outplaying Justin Fields isn’t a big ask.

Don’t be surprised if this is a similar game to last week’s overtime thriller. This game is likely to be close and will come down to turnovers and 1-2 big plays. If Green Bay can finally win the turnover battle (the Packers haven’t all season), they may actually blow a team out. However, that’s a huge part of the game and with all the inexperience the Packers put on the field, it’s part of the growing pains.

Giants 16
Packers 24 (-8.0)

Season: 2-2
Overall: 83-44

Review: Packers 14; Buccaneers 12 ~ this ended up being just a solid win. The first 2 drives were what you want to see from your veteran QB and offense, getting off to a perfect start. That being said…

Since the Aaron Jones fumble (above), the Packers had 8 drives (9 if you include the 1-play kneel down), totaling 32 plays amassing 90 total yards and obviously, 0 points. Seven of those 8 drives resulted in punts, and another was a bad interception. Rodgers needs to close a game like this, out, somehow.

The running back duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon were held down. Combining for just 85 total yards on 29 combined touches (2.93 yards/touch). Dillon seemed to have some of the better runs, but still keep it up. With them being held down, enter rookie wideout, and training camp Hall of Famer, Romeo Doubs.

Romeo Doubs was open and often, garnering 8 targets, catching all of them for 73 yards and a score. There’s a chance he could produce for the entire season, especially if Lazard can get on the field, which should open up single coverage for Doubs whom seems to get open and has solid hands, thus far.

Kudos the the defense for stepping up, limiting Tampa Bay to just 12 points, and an absolute clutch defensive play on the game-tying 2-point conversion. They also held the Bucs to just 285 yards on 59 plays and forcing 2 turnovers, which is crucial when playing against the best QB of all time. All in all a great team win, but Green Bay must score more than 14 points should these teams face each other in January…but you knew that.

Preview~ The Packers come in fairly healthy, the only question marks are CB Jaire Alexander and LT Yosh Njiman. Jaire is nursing a groin, which is worrisome as he’s a quick-twitch athlete and the groin is an injury that can linger, forever. As for Njiman, he had an illness and seems like he should be ready to go – even if David Bakhtiari is ready to go, again, he struggled a little and still needs to get into game shape. Counting on him for an entire game may be too much to ask, and I’m also not sure if he’s nearly as good as he once was…either way, those seem to be the only 2 potential injuries and as of Sunday morning, they’re both listed as QUESTIONABLE.

As for the Patriots, most noticeably, they’re missing starting QB Mac Jones. Before you think it’s an auto-win, their backup QB is Brian Hoyer. He’s going to make his 40th career start, going 16-23 in his previous 39 starts. He’s a solid backup and is capable of running the Pats offense and winning some games.

Matchup~

These teams are virtually the same. Solid defenses, offenses built around their run game, and try to win a close one. The difference is who they’ve played so far. The Packers have played 2 solid teams and one bad/awful team, where the Pats have played 2 very good teams and 1 unkown team. This could be, yet another, measuring stick-type game for both squads. It’s setting up to be another defensive struggle and low-scoring affair. It may be tough for the Packers to cover the 9.5 points, but could if the defense shuts down New England for 60 minutes. Let’s see if Rodgers and LaFleur can get Jones and/or Dillon going again this afternoon, like they were able to in the week 2 matchup vs. Chicago.

Patriots 17 (+9.5)
Packers 21

Season: 1-2
Overall: 82-44

Review: Packers 27; Bears 10 ~ The entire Packers team, coaches included, looked better than Week 1. However, that comes with a caveat- they did play the Chicago Bears, who are terrible. While it’s still early in the season, there are some things to highlight:

1. Rodgers looked better — he was a bit more in rhythm, seemed like he had control of the game/pace, and cared (always a big one).
2. Offensive Line was “OK,” struggled in run blocking — the run blocking may be seen as a force from last week, but that was aided by the strong running of A.J. Dillon, and especially Aaron Jones. There was plenty of times they were contacted at the line of scrimmage, but managed good gains.
3. Committed to the Run-Game — while the run-blocking was so-so, committing to the run game allowed Green Bay to control the clock, pace, and ultimately the outcome. Jones & Dillon combined for 37 touches (56% of total plays), 237 yards (57% of total yards), and 2 touchdowns.

The defense also held their own, keeping Chicago under 230 total yards (228) and allowing only one 3rd down conversion. Again, the Bears and Justin Fields are terrible, but they at least did their job.

While the Buccaneers are 2-0, they’ve had their own issues. Their offense hasn’t performed near to expectations, especially for a veteran team that’s been together for over 2 years and has been successful at that. Their defense, on the other hand, has been stifling. While I also don’t think highly of Dallas or New Orleans (both of Tampa’s opponents so far this season), they’re both superior to the Packers’ faced foes in 2022.

Since there’s at least some sort of sample size from which to draw, here’s how each team stacks up:

While not the best display, you can see each team’s Defense has the advantage over the opposition’s offense, except in rushing. Although, Tampa’s rush D is still solid. With both teams missing key receiving pieces (Bucs: Evans; Godwin; possibly Julio), it’ll fall on Brady & Rodgers to execute the scheme as well as the offensive line to create enough running room for each team’s backs to gain 1st downs. Per usual, turnovers will likely dictate the outcome.

It’s tough to imagine the Packers scoring enough to put Tampa Bay in a must pass position, so I think Tampa’s defense will put them in a position of strength, much like they did last week, keeping the Saints’ score low allowing Brady to make a few big throws in the 4th quarter to win.

Packers 20
Buccaneers 27 (-1.0)

Season: 1-1
Overall: 82-43

Week 1 Review~ It’s better to make predictions based off coin flips than what was shown in week 1. At least that’s how the NFL has trended since teams began sitting essentially all their starters throughout the preseason.

Chicago got a sloppy-weather game and capitalized. They still had to execute on more plays and did just that. The Bears won the turnover battle, along with only committing 3 penalties to San Francisco’s 12, which (usually) ended up being the difference in the outcome. Just goes to show, the better team doesn’t always win, however, the team that wins the turnover battle (unless Quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers in January) will win.

Green Bay suffered from 2 huge non-plays: the dropped TD by Rookie WR Christian Watson on the game’s 1st play from scrimmage; A.J. Dillon’s stuff on 4th & Goal in the 2nd quarter. The game is likely a different outcome, at least progress, however, you get paid to make the plays, and the Vikings did. The key point to take away from last week was the sheer production from the running backs. Aaron Jones (#33) and A.J. Dillon (#28) combined for 23 touches, 167 yards, and 1 TD. That’s good enough for a 7.3 yards/touch average, which would indicate that they need to touch the ball, far more often.

Preview~ Chicago is coming in with, not only, a head of steam, but a rare opportunity to take control over the entire division with a win (coupled with 2 winnable games following). Green Bay finds themselves in the (not a) “Must Win” department, essentially salvaging Week 1 and setting themselves up for the following 2 weeks against the 2-0 Bucs and 2-0 Giants (in London), in coming weeks.

Bears 21
Packers 30

Season: 0-1
Overall: 81-43

Ask any Vikings fan “What are your expectations for this season?” and it’ll be fake-sounding response about a “deep playoff run,” or “contend for the Super Bowl.” Yet, at the end of the season, they’re all overcome with joy upon the Packers’ inevitable January demise, which tells you everything.

Because Minnesota is the only team to host a Super Bowl every year (each time the Packers visit the Vikings), Za’Darius Smith decided to join them as they’re a match made in Heaven — they share the same dream, Beat Green Bay.

After Minnesota departed with Mike Zimmer, they chose to take the Offensive Coordinator from the defending Super Bowl champion LA Rams. Kevin O’Connell has served as the OC for the Rams underneath Head Coach, Sean McVay, for the last 2 seasons, so he’s been involved in some solid offenses. O’Connell has two of the best skill position players in the entire NFL in HB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson. QB Kirk Cousins, while I call him Captain Average, does put up solid numbers over the course of a season, and has had a few good games vs. Green Bay. Let’s see if Joe Berry and the Packers’ D can pick up where they left off last year, with a dominating performance – there’s no reason to think they can’t.

The Packers are still dealing with injuries on the offensive line, and unfortunately with their best 2 linemen…David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins. There’s also another injury that could change things quite a bit: Wide Receiver #1 Allen Lazard. This means Green Bay will feature a combination of Sammy Watkins, Christian Watson, Randall Cobb, Romeo Doubs, and Juwann Winfree. The only ones to even catch a pass in a Packer uniform are Cobb and Winfree.

This means the run game will be even more important, and with the unlikelihood of Bakhtiari and/or Jenkins suiting up, that could prove extremely tough, and let’s not forget Za’Darius Smith signed with Minnesota ONLY to play against Green Bay…

With these injuries, the QB will have to execute, which he’s great at in regular season games, and Matt LaFleur will likely lean on the legs of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

If the Packers win the turnover battle and are able to run the ball, they should prevail.

Packers 27 (-1.5)
Vikings 23

Season: 0-0
Overall: 81-42

Recapping the off-season, quickly, There were 3 main things the Packers did since the choke vs. San Francisco.

1. Trading Davante Adams
2. Moved on from team leader, Za’Darius Smith
3. Major restructuring of current players to fit the cap

The return on Adams should be quite helpful, fairly soon too. Drafting Quay Walker (22nd overall from UGA, pick from LV). Then using the 2nd round pick from Las Vegas to package it in a trade to Minnesota to move up in the 2nd and draft WR Christian Watson (North Dakota St.).

Za’Darius Smith has made some headlines the last 2 days, essentially talking about his entire reason for signing with Minnesota was to beat the Packers. Really shooting for the stars there 🙂

All of the cap restructuring, while clever, can really come back to bite the team as that money will eventually count against the cap. For example, Drew Brees is counting $11,500,000 against the Saints’ cap this year, and he has been gone for two seasons now. It’s coming Packer fans, so be prepared, and even more of a necessity to WIN NOW.

As I covered in my last entry, the season predictions will look a bit different this year, but the same process was used.

I have the Packers finishing 12-5, taking the 3rd seed in the NFC. The Buccaneers taking the 1 seed and San Francisco taking the 2nd. Again, these are essentially all guesses, but let’s have a look:

Wild Card

Packers beat the defending champs at Lambeau Field. The Rams come in as the 6th seed and fall to a tough, balanced Packers team in a great game on the first weekend of the NFL Playoffs.

Divisional Round

Being the 3-seed, the Packers will travel to the 2-seed San Francisco 49ers. Aaron Rodgers will finally finish off San Fran in the postseason and advance to his 6th NFC Championship game in his career.

Championship Round

On Championship Sunday, the Packers will travel to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL to take on the Tom Bradys. Unfortunately, Green Bay will come up short, probably on a missed Field Goal, losing by 1 or 2 so that the blame can be deflected from the actual issue…once again.

In this matchup in Glendale, AZ, the Buffalo Bills will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is a matchup of 2 of the best 3 teams in the NFL. I believe the Packers have the best roster in the NFL. However, this is Josh Allen’s time and he’ll bring a Lombardi Trophy to Buffalo, well-deserved and that city has thirsted for one. It’d be a terrible time to be a folding table.

To keep (any) integrity with picking/predicting, one should reflect on passed selections.  For my season predictions, I went through the entire schedule grid for each team, picking each winner thus counting it as a loss for those other teams that, well, lost.  In doing so I correctly selected 10 of the 14 playoff participants.  I missed three in the AFC: Pittsburgh; Cincinnati; Las Vegas.  I only missed one in the NFC: Philadelphia.

As for the Super Bowl, I had Cincinnati finishing last in the AFC North with a record of 4-13.  The Los Angeles Rams were picked to go 9-8, get the 6^th seed and lose to the 3^rd seeded Packers at Lambeau Field in the Wild Card round. 

Speaking of those Green Bay Packers, I missed their overall record by 1 game, concluding 12-5 (instead of 13-4, although if needed, they likely win Week 18 and go 14-3).  I missed by 2 seeds.  The odd thing is I did have them losing to the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round- had I gone back and looked prior to the matchup, I still likely pick the Packers in my weekly pick, but that’s a pretty close hit.

All in all, I fared better than I initially thought once the playoffs commenced and especially once the Super Bowl match up was determined.

I’ve been close before on picking Super Bowl participants, but this year was filled with much parody – it’s resulted in us living in a world where “Going For It” or “All In” carries more weight than every before…oh, and Matthew Stafford is now a Super Bowl Champion.  Very odd.

What does the typical Super Bowl champion resemble?  Let’s take a dive into what it takes to win a World Championship.  Since the NFL has 2 to 3 different timelines, let’s use the most-recent one; Free Agency (1993 season). 

Since the beginning of the 1993 NFL season, the eventual Super Bowl Champion has ranked 7^th in scoring offense, 7^th in scoring defense, 4^th in point differential, and has had an average postseason seed of 2^nd – a bye.

Including this season, 70% of Super Bowl champions had a bye from the wild car round, which makes sense for two reasons: 1. Better teams earn a bye; 2. A full game less chance to be eliminated.

Again, the most indicative ranking of team strength is the point differential ranking; 4^th.  Including the 2021 season, 66% of eventual champions, or roughly 2 of every 3 are ranked 4^th or better. 

How does Green Bay compare?  The Packers have ranked 7^th or better in scoring offense 18 times.  The defense has ranked 7^th or better on eight occurrences since 1993.  The opportunities have been there for the Packers to capitalize on their True Team Strength, yet this has led to heartbreak after countless heartbreak.  Green Bay has lost on the final play in the postseason 8 times since the 1998.

What does this all mean?  The Packers have had a “good enough” defense to win more than 2 Super Bowls in this time frame, assuming Quarterback is as important as everyone says it is – meaning either the Quarterbacks Green Bay has had since 1993 aren’t nearly as good as many have claimed OR the position really isn’t that important.  It can’t be both, or can it?

Adding yet another season-ending gut punch to Packer Nation’s ever-growing inventory of sickening playoff losses, this one might be the tipping point for Packer fans on their desire to keep Aaron Rodgers as starting quarterback.

Like most (all) fan bases, this one will likely continue to overreact as well.  Maybe its deserved. 

Game Recap~ I won’t cover the obvious (special teams or Rodgers’ missed read on everyone not named Adams) in detail.  I will cover just how great the Defense was and why that should be cause for optimism moving forward, regardless of who’s under center in 2022. 

Defense~ before San Francisco’s final drive before the end of the 1^st half, they had a total of -15 yards.  Yes, you read that correctly NEGATIVE FIFTEEN YARDS OF TOTAL OFFENSE.  Then, once they actually put a drive together, Adrian Amos came up with a clutch interception on the GB 4-yard line.  The Packers gave up a total of 212 yards of offense.  106 passing yards on 11/19 passing to only 4 different pass catchers.  It seemed like Jimmy G was under duress the entire game, and he was, yet took less sacks (4) than Rodgers (5) for less yards (24 v 29). 

The eye test tells the story that Green Bay’s defense dominated, while Aaron Rodgers and the Packers did not take what San Fran was giving them.  Which would’ve netted them 21-31 points and an easy win when coupled with Joe Barry’s defensive gameplan – even with the special team blunders. 

I think that’s enough, after having 7-8 days to settle, let’s review the season.  From last week’s article, the “true strength” showed the Packers were the 5^th strongest team in the NFC, and that just may be more accurate than their 1 seed. 

While this was one of Green Bay’s strongest teams, and (arguably) their best chance at reaching a Super Bowl (keep in mind the goal is to win the Super Bowl, not just get there), the Packers squandered another opportunity.  Will this be the off-season to make the final change(s) to completely overhaul the roster since their last World Championship?  Maybe, some have been calling for that for some time…now is the time (again). 

If you want an optimistic view of watching the games as a Packer fan, think of it from a realist’s perspective: Better to have lost in the Divisional round than in either of the next 2 games; especially the Super Bowl. 

Season: 12-6
Overall: 81-42

With the divisional round getting under way in just a few hours, let’s see how the Packers matchup against the (somehow) feared San Francisco 49ers.  While, as a fan, it’s considered taboo to “take an opponent lightly,” the perception of the Packers is that they’re somehow the underdog when they’ve:

1. Already beaten the 49ers this season.
2. Proved to be the best team in the NFL for the entire season.
3. Have the 1 seed and have only gotten healthier.

Hopefully this gives Green Bay added juice to motivate them to come out and execute.  Since San Fran is coming off a decent win in Dallas, where they tried to give the game away but Dallas had other plans, they have some momentum, but at the same time, their worries outweigh the Packers’.

As we can see, based on pure yardage, San Francisco has ranked higher all season, and in points both teams are identically matched up.  Which should lead one to believe that’s it’s an even matchup, kind of like their week 3 meeting.  While in my last article, “Re-Seeding the NFC playoffs” the 49ers technically are the 3^rd strongest team in the conference, with Green Bay ranking 5^th.  The item that those rankings doesn’t take into account is pure record of wins and losses; the most important. 

The media is quite focused on WR #19 Deebo Samuel, as well they should be, the Packers feature a better WR (#17 Davante Adams) and actually are better at every single position other than DE, TE, and K.  If the game does come down to kicking, at least Mason Crosby has been there in the past and delivered each time in the postseason.

Oh, and yeah, he kicked a game-winning 51-yard field goal as time expired to beat these same San Francisco 49ers.  However, I don’t believe the game will be that close.

49ers 17
Packers 27

Season: 12-5
Overall: 81-41