Review – This was one of the more complete games, again, by the Packers.  There was a time where it was in doubt, when it was tied 7-7, Houston had the ball and was driving on Green Bay’s side of the field late in the 3^rd quarter.  A Hopkins dropped pass keyed a defensive hold and prompted all-world punter, Shane Lechler, to pin the Packers at the 2 yard line.  If the Packers go on to do anything of relevance this year (aka win the Super Bowl), this will be looked at as the Drive of the Year, potentially.  The defense showed up in a defensive-type game – the weather conditions proved to help, but it was very encouraging to see the secondary have their best game.  The two TDs were a bit alarming, but Rollins was pushed off by TE Ryan Griffin, and the other was Micah Hyde reverting to his old/bad self.

The players I said to look out for, didn’t really factor into this one…Lamar Miller (Hou’s HB) actually played, but didn’t make much of a difference.  The other key was to watch Clay Matthews, who still shows to be worthless.  It’s alarming and very worrisome that Julius Peppers is light years more productive than #52.

From my eye, there were quite a few players that stood out, most notably: Jordy Nelson.  He didn’t show speed or great route running, but incredible hands and body control that he can still produce in a tight-end style where he’s a mismatch v smaller corners and speedier than most safeties.  Because its objective and they tie numbers to it…let’s take a look (ranked according from highest grade to lowest).

CB LaDarius Gunter 92.0
WR Jordy Nelson 87.3
DE Mike Daniels 84.6
LG Lane Taylor 84.2
LB Joe Thomas 83.0
CB Quinten Rollins 82.7
FB Aaron Ripkowski 82.3
RT Bryan Bulaga 80.7

There were more listed, but any grad at/above 80.0 is a solid performance.  Anything above 90 is truly an incredible performance, and Gunter was a much-needed sight for sore eyes.  If he can continue to improve, I’m not expecting him to be the next Richard Sherman, to a point where he can be a reliable #2 corner – that would help give this defense the boost they’ve been looking for!  Rookie DL Dean Lowry made a burst with a sack and a solid game as well…again, not expecting him to continue, but any production he gives should be treated as a bonus.

All in all, just a great game where the defense held and offense that a good defense should when at home in those conditions.

Preview –Seattle Seahawks…we’re familiar with them by now, aren’t we?  Seattle comes in with an 8-3-1 record, in 1^st place of the NFC West, and holding the 2^nd seed in NFC playoffs.  They can lock up the NFC West with a Win and an Arizona Loss.  They possess the 15^th overall offense and 8^th overall defense.  As many know, the Seahawks have the best home-field advantage (based on record of recent years)…however, can be had when playing on the road.  The biggest factor I’ve been struggling with is their road record (2-3-1).  They don’t look good away from Seattle, but there’s 1 victory I can’t figure out: week 10 @ New England.  So I dove deeper and compared their road victories versus their road losses.

In Seattle’s wins (2- week 4 at Jets, week 10 at Patriots) they have a +5 turnover ratio.  In their 3 losses they’re -2.  As is the time with 80% of games in the NFL, the team that wins the turnover battle should win the game.  Meanwhile, the Packers are +3 in their six wins and -8 in their six losses.  Again, Green Bay MUST win the turnover battle, not tie it, if they want to come out on top.

Seattle isn’t great running the ball, especially on the road.  They eclipsed the 100 yard mark once on the road, and it was 2 weeks ago at Tampa, 127 yards rushing.  But Tampa showed the blueprint how to slow, and damn near shut down Seattle’s offense.  Keep Russell Wilson in the pocket, play tight man coverage and if you do get pressure, make sure it’s from the middle and your ends keep contain.  Essentially the same defense one would want coming into a game v Aaron Rodgers.  The 2^nd key to the game is generating pressure from within (Mike Daniels) and keeping contain (Julius Peppers and Jayrone Elliott).  It’s a HUGE, an absolute HUGE loss that Nick Perry will miss with broken fingers.  He’s had a great season v the run and a solid season pass-rushing.  Considering Seattle’s weakest spot on their team is the Offensive Line, where the Seahawks are 20^th in rush offense and their leading rusher is currently wearing #32 on the Packers…Christine Michael (10 rushes, 23 yards with GB).  I think the key matchup will be the Seahawks’ pass defense (9^th in the NFL) against the Packers’ 10^th rated pass offense.  I’ve been critical of Aaron Rodgers, and the entire fan base should be as well…he’s been his old self, which is what he should be doing weekly.  Rodgers has been completing passes at a 72.5% clip, avg. 261 yards, and 2TDs in the past 2 wins, with no turnovers.  That’s key b/c the Packers’ offense lives through #12 and is aided by, arguably, the 2^nd best offensive line in the NFL (behind Dallas).  The Packers have 3 offensive linemen rated in the top 25 of the NFL, the only other team that can say that are the Oakland Raiders.  Those Packers are LT David Bakhtiari (88.8), RT Bryan Bulaga (85.9), and RG TJ Lang (83.3): 6^th; 19^th; 22^nd respectively.

Around the League – the only game that really matters to Green Bay is at Noon at Ford Field: 3-9 Chicago at 8-4 Detroit.  The Packers need Detroit to lose at least 1 more game before their week 17 matchup.  The Lions are favored by 8, so for Chicago to go into Detroit and get a W is a bit far-fetched.  Either way, it’s a game for Packer fans to watch before the 325p kick.

Other great matchups around the league are Dallas (-3) at New York.  If Dallas wins, they clinch the NFC East and a BYE in the playoffs.  Other than that, Monday night is Baltimore at New England (-7), where the Ravens have given the Patriots fits over the past few seasons.

Overall— if you’re still with me, after all that “analysis,” here are things I watch for and how I think it’ll go down.  On Kickoffs, if it’s not a touchback I hope the Packers return it past the 25 (touchback) and that it’s Ty Montgomery or Trevor Davis as the return man.  If the other way, I hope for a touchback or a tackle prior to the 20.

Hold on to the ball.  Any possession that ends in a kick, for the Packers, should be considered moral victory.  I’m not condoning 3 & outs, but punts, field goals, and extra points will be essential to winning this game…along with taking the ball away from Seattle.

Seattle is average, at best, on the road.  They’re missing their vocal defensive leader, Earl Thomas, and in order to generate pressure, they’ll need to bring linebackers which should open up the middle of the field for Jared Cook, Davonte Adams, and Randall Cobb.  Hopefully Green Bay can run enough to utilize play action and keep Seattle off balance.  Russell Wilson, over the last 2 matchups v Green Bay, has been downright bad.  Combining for 33 of 59 passing (55.9%), 405 yards, 3TD and 5INT.  Look for GB’s defense to key on Baldwin (#89) and Graham (#88) and holding them under 120 yards combined.

Seahawks 20
Packers 23

 *Record is 17-13*

Review: Packer fans should feel as confident as possible after playing their most complete game in years.  It had been some time since the Offense, Defense, and Special Teams all played an A-game.  Aaron Rodgers looked crisp in getting the ball out on time.  Receivers looked to be open quick enough for a 3-step drop (they have been for a few weeks now), and the defense held Philadelphia under 300 yards of total offense.  Cris Collinsworth made a big deal about Green Bay’s kickoff coverage, and the Packers responded with great tackling and coverage on well-placed kicks.  Overall, it’s a pretty easy recap – the Packers did everything well.  Now let’s see if they can keep it rolling against, what Mike McCarthy likes to call, an uncommon opponent.

Preview: The Houston Texans come in to Lambeau with a 6-5 record, losing their last 2 games.  The Texans seem to be similar to the Packers in which they’ve beaten bad teams and have lost to good ones.  Aside from the Packers’ week 4 victory of the New York Giants, that’s how the Packers typically roll.  The Texans’ QB, Brock Osweiler, is a huge man (6’8” 235lbs) and is pretty athletic for a guy his size, has no issue seeing over his offensive line.  However, even with good weapons in DeAndre Hopkins (#10) and Will Fuller V (#15), he’s been off all season – 59.5%, 12TD, 13INT, and a 72.2RAT – although he’s missing a couple of targets: CJ Fiedorowicz TE; Jalen Strong WR; Lamar Miller HB.  Based on what the Packers showed at Philly last Monday night and how the Texans are struggling as of late, it makes sense to think the Packers have the upper-hand (Packers are favored by 6.5) heading into this match.

It’ll be interesting to see if Clay Matthews can play, and actually be effective instead of being a non-factor like he’s been for quite some time.  Also, keep an eye on rookie Defensive lineman, Kenny Clark, who’s had a fairly productive season up to this point.  Now’s about the time rookies his the proverbial Wall, but there’s a chance #97 could be productive with him not being asked to play each and every play.  Damarious Randall’s (#23) return sparked a bit of improvement in the defensive backfield.  Throughout the year, even though he’s been beat a few times, he’s always been in the hip pocket of the receiver he’s covering.  Look for the Packers’ now 1^st corner to cover the Texans’ #1 threat, DeAndre Hopkins.

With the Vikings losing to Dallas on Thursday night, they now sit at 6-6 and should Green Bay beat Houston that would pull them to a 6-6 record as well (Green Bay would still be behind Minnesota for losing their head-to-head matchup in week 2).  If you’re convinced the Packers can Get In and Get Hot and get all the way to Houston for Super Bowl LI, then you best be rooting for the Saints to beat Detroit.  How I see it shaking out, come Monday, December 5^th, the Packers will be one game behind Detroit – ultimately controlling their divisional destiny.  Meaning, should Detroit lose to New Orleans and Green Bay beat Houston, then with Green Bay still playing all three divisional opponents and if IF the Packers win out they’d, at worst, have the same record as Detroit (but hold the head-to-head tiebreaker 2-0) and Minnesota would have, at best, a 9-7 record while Green Bay would be 10-6.  But let’s not get too far ahead…I’m glad I was wrong last week, however if the Packers don’t finish the season hoisting the Lombardi trophy I fear making the postseason as the brain trust may believe injuries were the major factor in failure v the play of the players, quality of the coaching, or quality of the roster.

Pick: record now is 16-13.

Texans 24
Packers 30

Hope you all enjoyed Thanksgiving!  I watched all 3 NFL games yesterday, and it’s very apparent to me that 5 of the 6 teams playing are in better shape than Green Bay, as far as winning games now.  Let’s recap what happened and how it sets up for the remainder of the season.  There are 2 questions to be asked, and depending on what kind of fan you are, I’ll cover them both:

1. Would you like the Packers to make the playoffs? If so, I hope you truly believe they’ll win the Super Bowl (if you read my blog heading into week 1 you’ll notice I didn’t think GB could even at full health), otherwise what’s the point?  Let’s assume Green Bay “runs the table,” for sake of argument.

-Packers finish 10-6
-Detroit would automatically lose one more (week 17 to GB), giving them 5 losses
-Green Bay would need Detroit to lose at least once more in addition to week 17
-Detroit’s remaining schedule:
-@ Saints
-v Bears
-@ Giants
-@ Cowboys
-v Packers
-Very easily could have an additional loss on the schedule, maybe they only win 1 more game (v Bears)
-Vikings are also ahead of the Packers, however they’d assume another loss in week 16 (xmas eve) @ Green Bay and would finish 10-6, as would GB, but would lose out on division record to Green Bay and heads-up record v Detroit
-Overall, the Packers’ best chance at the playoffs is to win the division – meaning 1. Winning out and 2. Needing another loss by Detroit

2. Would you like the Packers to lose out because a. They aren’t winning the Super Bowl this year anyway and/or b. you want change? This is where I’m at.  Of course I’ll root for the Packers during the game to win, it’s impossible not to, but in the grand scheme of things you shouldn’t be upset over a loss at this point.  Hell, the fact anyone outside of the locker room thought this team was capable of winning a Super Bowl this year heading into the season needs to take off the Green & Gold sunglasses and face reality.

*So to recap, if you want the Packers to make the playoffs you need to root for at least another loss by Detroit in addition to Green Bay finishing 6-0.

I also want to clear something else up…to blame Ted Thompson is perfectly fine, he should deserve the credit for winning and blame for losing.  However, blame him for not drafting well, but don’t blame him for not signing free agents to help this team.  The reason there’s no chance this team was going to win the Super Bowl isn’t because the Packers didn’t pick up Brandon Browner or Antonio Cromartie to help the defensive backfield.  Would they help win a game or two?  Sure.  However, there’s a reason they’re unemployed PLUS a huge factor is they’d be taking snaps and valuable playing time from the younger guys.

You may be saying, But Nick, the young guys suck!  Yes, but I’d rather lose by giving kids playing time than not winning by blocking their development.

Thanks for reading!

P.S. I’m not a die-hard Badger fan, but I’ll root for them as college football is improving and if they can sneak into the college football playoff that’d be incredible for the university and the state of Wisconsin.

(Sorry for the all bold/formatting, working through it). Earlier this week I found myself involved in deep conversation regarding the Packers’ issues, or perceived issues.  Some people are already looking ahead to the 2017 NFL Draft, I always like to keep up to date with mock drafts regardless of where the Packers are in the standings.  Let’s tackle this from a few different angles…

Issues—
a.       Offensive Line: a few people (Gilbert Brown most notably) have complained about the Offensive Line being a major issue.  Entering week 11 (the Redskins game) the Packers O Line ranked 1^st in pass blocking and 17^th in run blocking, per Pro Football Focus.  The Packers have only had a 100 yard rusher once this season (week 3 v Detroit), and much of that is to losing Lacy and Starks and supplementing the rush game with quick passes and having Wideouts line up in the backfield catching check-downs.  Eddie Lacy does have value with his vision, however he can’t keep his weight at or below 235lbs and the Packers must move on.  It’s essential to have a solid running back (see Lacy’s first 2 seasons of 2013 and 2014) which helps the offensive line’s run blocking.  I’d love to see the Packers bring in a true runner in this draft.  Possibly even draft two.  Overall, as of now, I don’t think the Packers’ offensive line is an issue – I actually believe it’s the strength of this team.  Can it be improved?  Absolutely, but an OL of LT Bakhtiari, LG Taylor, C Linsley/Tretter, RG Lang, RT Bulaga is a solid place.  Don’t be surprised if TJ Lang isn’t extended and JC Tretter is groomed for the RG spot for 2017.  Based on his play since 2015, it seems he’ll be fine.

b.      Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers is ranked 14^th by Pro Football Focus, which by his standards is terrible.  Sure he’s average across the league, but the Packers aren’t paying him to be average.  He’s paid to play at an MVP-level, he hasn’t been there since the 2^nd half of the divisional playoff game v Dallas in January of 2015.  There are two major issues I have with the QB – but first let me state I was all aboard the Rodgers train and ridding this franchise of Favre the instant Brett threw, quite possibly the worst, interception in the history of football –         

1.       The reason his stats and “ranking” has dipped from top 3 to 14 is not for injury or physical ability.  He’s holding the ball, which used to be OK because he’d eventually find and hit an open receiver, but now he’s foregoing throwing to open receivers to find bigger plays.  Or even worse, he’s not throwing to receivers whom are wide open downfield (see link: https://twitter.com/aaronnagler/status/801103501526974464) this is just one instance, but has happened far too often and is now the norm v the rare.               

2.       No one but Aaron can say for certain, but this whole personal issue of him not talking with his family, or dating Olivia Munn directly effecting his play…it could absolutely change his mind set or preparation, make him cocky, etc.  However, the way I see it, and when I screamed for Rodgers to take the reins from Favre, my major concern was “Don’t give Rodgers the keys to the franchise like Sherman did to Brett…he could mess it up worse than Favre did, he’s smarter.”  Mike Florio wrote an article (believe what you want, but if you’re a blind Packer Backer I thank you for reading and trying to open your eyes) stating there’s a feud between the QB and McCarthy and if Mac is fired Aaron will have “won” and why would he listen to the new coach?  I hope I’m wrong because I don’t believe Green Bay will part ways with their beloved Quarterback any time soon, but I do believe in order to win a Super Bowl he needs to go. 

c.      Head Coach: I’m not sure if Mike McCarthy has lost the team or if his message is stale, but for someone who’s defended him more than most, his “reasons” for failure are getting stale for me.  If Aaron does have the keys to the castle, that’s on Mac…if his message is stale, it’s time to move on – Sure it’s tough to win in this league when at full strength and that much tougher to do it when you’re missing 5 starters, and top of the line starters for the most part.  I’m open for a new head coach, and at this point it almost doesn’t matter who it is. 

d.     General Manager: Pete Dougherty wrote an article this week taking a look at Thompson’s drafts (http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/dougherty/2016/11/23/dougherty- packers-drafts-missing-mark/94285504/) – to paraphrase the first 6 drafts (2005-2010) produced plenty of good players, whereas the last 6 (2011-2016) have left a lot to be desired.  If you know me, you understand I believe the draft and develop is the best method to produce a consistent winner, but to win championships and build a dynasty (that’s the goal remember?) you must draft well, consistently in addition to having a coach on the same page that is also a good coach. 

All in all, I believe Dom Capers’ time may have run out of Green Bay (about 4 years too late) and there may be an improvement from his departure, but there’s a little part of me that worries the Packers won’t handle this properly in order to build for a legit title contender and put themselves in position to consistently make the playoffs and needing pure luck to win a Super Bowl.  I guess time will tell, but let’s move on to Philly, shall we? 

The Eagles come in losers in 3 of their last 4 and are trying to keep pace with the surprising NFC East.  Philadelphia showcases a rookie QB in Carson Wentz (6’5” 237lbs) from North Dakota St., he began his career about as well as one can by posting 100+ QB rating in 3 of his first four games, leading the Eagles to a 3-0 start.  Since, his numbers have resembled the look of Aaron Rodgers’ (yeah, that’s a direct shot at the egomaniac QB that must play better) and the team’s performance is a direct correlation by going 2-5 since.  This is as close to a must-win (without actually being one) for both teams as it can get.  As far as the Packers are concerned, the winner of the Thanksgiving showdown between Minnesota and Detroit will hold a 7-4 record and if it’s Detroit they’ll have essentially a 1.5 game lead over Min by holding the tiebreaker (having beaten Minnesota earlier this season).  If Dallas bests Washington, also on Turkey Day, the Cowboys will all but clinch the NFC East and could coast to the 1 seed in the playoffs.  If you’re the Eagles you’re rooting for the Redskins to up-end Dallas and ruin Thanksgiving, and if you’re the Packers (and want to get to the playoffs) you should pull for Minnesota to beat the Lions. 

In the end, I ultimately think the best thing for the Packers (long term) is to lose out and get a high draft pick to either take a game-changer (running back Dalvin Cook from Florida St) or trade it back and acquire another 1^st and 2^nd round pick from it.  This team is in dire need of above average NFL starters and the best way to get them are either drafting well (ideal) or signing solid role players in free agency (please no). 

Prediction time…if you’re still with me, I thank you for following along from all the bouncing around.  I can’t see anything changing.  The Packers’ secondary is a joke, with 4 players giving up a perfect QB rating to Kirk Cousins last week (158.3), which is something I can do, seriously.  Also, the return of Glass Matthews was quite frustrating knowing this guy will make $17,350,000 next year (he must be traded or cut).  I think the Packers score a few points, maybe keep the game close like last week, but some points may be in garbage time too – this is comical to watch, so have some fun with it knowing the Super Bowl was never an option for this team this year and the proof is now showing. 

Packers 27
Eagles 41 (crying from laughing emoji inserted here)

*Overall Record: 16-12*

 

This could be a longer one, but in addition to the normal Review/Preview/Prediction, it’s time to dig deep into the (potentially) real issues concerning this Green Bay Packers team.  If you pay attention to local, or even national, media, it seems as if everyone is giving their 2 cents.  Obviously no one is 100% sure, not even the actual people involved.  However, let’s take a look at each potential issue…maybe it’ll spark an intelligent conversation?

General Manager –
Ted Thompson has been at the helm since January 2005.  He’s brought a system and philosophy of building through the draft, to which yours truly thoroughly believes is the best program to build a team (in any professional sport).  Obviously to be successful with that one must draft well – Thompson began with a BANG by hitting home runs on his first 2 selections (Aaron Rodgers (1^st round, 24^th pick) and Nick Collins (2^nd round, 19^th pick).  Without going into much detail, had Collins stayed healthy could’ve been, at minimum, a Green Bay Packers HOFer.  Moving ahead, he’s essentially drafted at about a 50% clip, which when acquiring draft picks as often as possible (through not resigning players and receiving compensatory picks in return) and trading back in previous drafts to hoard mid-late round picks, means you’ll turn over your roster every 4-6 years and if you’re hitting on those picks, your team should always be young and talented.

In the last two seasons (2015 and 2016), much has been made about WRs not getting open, or players just not being good enough to make plays.  In the Divisional playoff game at Arizona, many thought the Packers would get boatraced (I certainly did), yet the defense somehow found a way to hold Arizona (the #1 offense in the NFL last year), at home, to 17 points with 2:34 left in the game while the offense had the ball.  When looking at playoff matchups and how to win, 20 points certainly seems to be the key number.  If you can hold your opponent to 20 or less you should win that particular game.  However, the mis-execution (insert whatever word you’d like) of the offense led Arizona to a FG after going 4 and out to push the lead to 20-13 with 2 min left.  We all remember the hail maryS (capital S is intentional because Rodgers to Janis, TWICE) and I’ll argue Janis made one of the best catches I’ve ever seen on the second hail mary – outjumping arguably the bester cornerback in football – so there was talent on the team to get the job done last year, or at least enough to compete with what many believed was the most complete team in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals.

With this season being a really weird one so far, I don’t believe lack of talent as the major issue even with the injuries.  If anything, this season should be used as a learning lesson for all the playing time the 1^st and 2^nd year players are getting (Ladarius Gunter, Kentrell Brice, Blake Martinez, Jake Ryan (until injury last Sunday), Kenny Clark, Kyler Fackrell, Trevor Davis, Geronimo Allison, etc.) which takes 2-3 years for them to really become legit starters in the NFL.  It should make this team much stronger and better in the years to come, but let’s not worry about the future, this is about right now.  The offensive line is arguably top 2 in the league, the WRs have been open on a more consistent basis since the Chicago game (Thu, Oct 20), however the biggest issue and most obvious has been since the injuries to Eddie Lacy and James Starks there has been no real answer for running back.  Ty Montgomery has shown capabilities, but then again he’s learning on the fly and can’t be expected to produce on a consistent basis during this stretch – maybe next year he’s an awesome option.  All in all, I don’t believe Ted Thompson is at a major fault (some sure) for this team’s failure in 2016…otherwise Las Vegas wouldn’t keep putting them as a top 5 contender to win the Super Bowl (unless Vegas knows people will continuously bet the Packers if put high odds??? That’s counter-intuitive, or is it??)

Head Coach –
Mike McCarthy has, publically, taken most of the heat and has for some time.  It’s well-deserved as his offense was figured out week 7 last year at Denver and took an entire calendar year to make corrections in effectiveness.  The last two weeks should be the real concern, with the team lacking energy throughout the entire game v Indianapolis and it almost seeming like no one cared playing the Titans.  The coach is single-handedly responsible for getting his team in the right mindset to play and win – something this team hasn’t done since hosting the awful Chicago Bears on a Thursday night showdown in Lambeau.  Is the message stale?  It could be, however with the roster consistently turning over every 4-6 years (remember that?) the message shouldn’t get stale any more than changing head coaches every 5 years except to those players that have been here longer (i.e. Rodgers, Nelson, Lang, Matthews, Burnett, and Shields).  McCarthy may be a bigger part of the issue, with his message potentially being old, his scheme being figured out, and his team not showing up to play and pound two inferior opponents (Ind/Ten).  Aside from the 2010 postseason run (and yes, I know you can’t just take it out, but let’s) a Green Bay-led McCarthy team hasn’t won two games in the playoffs.  Think about that…literally 1 and done every single season other than the Magic Carpet Ride as some local sports media like to label it.  There’s an argument to be made that he’s put his team in position to win versus superior opponents (2014 Seattle and 2015 Arizona) yet if those teams were superior that then falls on Ted…

Quarterback –
Aaron Rodgers, the third and final piece of this 3-headed monster that’s wreaking havoc inside 1265 Lombardi Ave.  People keep pointing to the Denver game last year when the Packers (6-0) met the Broncos (6-0), and were held to 77 yards passing, as the turning point to Rodgers’ struggles.  However, Pro Football Focus (number nerds) have pegged Rodgers for not having great games dating back to the Dallas playoff game How’s that not a Catch? – Dez Bryant since his last good performance.  I’m no coach, however I’m even able to see that he’s consistently not stepping into throws, choosing not to throw to open receivers, acting as if nothing’s his fault, so on and so forth.  There’s been much written recently about potential “rifts” between Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy…the most interesting, let’s say, was an article from Pro Football Talk’s, Mike Florio, stating his opinion (paraphrasing): By Rodgers claiming one could feel the lack of juice on the entire sideline (during the Colts game), that was a direct shot at Head Coach Mike McCarthy; a potential issue arises that if McCarthy is fired at season’s end the QB will have gotten his way and why would he listen to anyone knew???  It definitely begs the question Instead of firing the Head Coach, should the Packers fire the star player?  Everyone says “you don’t fire the players you fire the coach.”  Well in the NFL, can you name the Quarterbacks to have won a Super Bowl after being with a team for 10+ seasons?  I have the answer…next week 🙂 I’ll also provide my answer to “Whom is most at fault for this mess?” as well.

Now, onto the rematch of the Wild Card round against the Washington Redskins.  The Redskins post the 4^th rated offense in the NFL which doesn’t bode well based on the fact the Packers’ defense has been torched by Tennessee (6^th) and Indianapolis (13^th) in the previous weeks.  The Packers rating is a bit misleading as teams have put up points early in the game and just hold the ball to run the clock and play a zone defense while Green Bay possesses the ball to burn clock as well.  Either way if you’re a fan of the Packers and still think they have a chance at winning a Super Bowl this season (I’ll remind you, based on what we’ve seen since the start of last year they don’t) this is as much of a must-win game as you can have without it actually being an elimination game.  Washington’s defense is 21^st in the league, so this could be a matchup for the Packers offense to get back on track and show something similar to their matchup in Atlanta.  It’s also interesting that Ted went out and picked up another potential option at Running Back, Christine Michael.  Yes I spelled his first name correctly…I believe it’s pronounced Kristen.  He’s a phenomenal athlete as in the top performer in 5 categories at the NFL combine in 2013 amongst all running backs.  The knock on him, and why he’s been cut 3-4 times is he’s not the smartest human – most notably he signaled a first down after hesitating and not getting it.  Another instance was waving off Marshawn Lynch coming onto the field as if he’s saying “I got this!”  If that type of behavior continues his time donning the green and gold will be short, just like Knile Davis.

Overall, the Packers have more talent than the Redskins but it’s obvious to many they have not been playing on the same page for quite some time.  I’m at the point with my favorite team that until they show they can win a football game, it’d be irresponsible to pick them.

Packers 24
Redskins 34

*Sadly the record is now 15-12 as I picked correctly against my beloved Packers.  Almost time to begin rooting for losses so that major change occurs. ***

Unlike most, maybe all, Packer fans I’m not disgusted or disgruntled after this performance.  Why?  Although picking Green Bay to win, I’m not shocked this team lost to arguably a bottom 5 team in the NFL, at home, in perfect conditions.  Following the game, Indianapolis now possesses the 13^th ranked offense and the 29^th ranked defense.  There were countless times where Packer receivers were open for quick, easy 5-10 yard gains and Rodgers either didn’t see them or chose to find someone else further downfield.  Either way, when will most fans come to the realization he’s at fault for this?  The offense has changed a bit over the last 4-5 games in design to get pass-catchers open quickly to offset the lack of rushing attack, and yet it’s only come to fruition for a half here or a half there (Chicago and Atlanta)…The question is now, aside from being a blind fan of the team, why should anyone expect a turnaround and this team to string along multiple quarters let alone games in order to become a championship-caliber team?  The answer: No one should expect it.  Demand it, but you’re setting yourself up for pointless heartbreak if you think this team will magically become great.  Even in 2010, this team didn’t look like it was stuck in neutral on both sides of the ball.

Moving on to Tennessee, another un-common opponent.  The Titans are the 8^th ranked offense, overall and have the 16^th rated defense.  Meanwhile the Packers are rated 16^th and 7^th on offense and defense, respectively.  I’m not sure how this matchup really works out.  The Titans pose a tough rushing attack with Demarco Murray and last year’s Heisman winner, Derrick Henry.  They’ve combined for 1,028 yards rushing already through nine (9) games – averaging 114 yards/game rushing.  Combine that with their versatile/rushing QB Marcus Mariota (keep in mind that Colin Kaepernick should have Dom Capers on retainer) and they’re the 3^rd best rushing offense in football.  It should be a good matchup between their rushing attack and the Packers’ best rush defense.

All in all, Rodgers might be beyond repair (hopefully I won’t have to write about this in the offseason), the Packers’ defense is being rebuilt in front of our eyes (5+ starters on their first contract) – I wouldn’t say this season is lost ONLY due to it being a potential re-tooling.  However, I may have said this before, but unless this team actually wins the Super Bowl there’s absolutely no reason, aside from blind fandom, to believe this organization is capable of winning a title this season based on what you’ve seen.

Packers 27
Titans 30

*14-12 after my dumba$$ picked the Packers…I won’t until they give me a reason.*
GO PACK GO!!!

While the Packers held Julio Jones to 3 catches for 29 yards, Matt Ryan was still able to have a very efficient game with almost no pass rush disrupting him.  Had one told me the Packers’ defense would hold Atlanta to sub-300 yards passing and under 100 yards rushing, while Green Bay didn’t have a single turnover, I would’ve thought it would be a victory.  Sadly it wasn’t…let’s take a brief look as to why.

Recap – it seems that the biggest reason to the Packers’ most recent loss can be attributed to the lack of pass rush.  I could take a deeper dive into QB pressures, hurries, etc. – however let’s just look at sacks.  It seemed that there was little pass rush outside of the 2 sacks recorded (averaged 3.5 sacks/contest the first four games, and under 2 sacks/game the last three) as Matt Ryan completed 28 of 35 for 288 yards and 3 TDs.  Dom Capers elected to play coverage v Atlanta the entire game-winning drive which proves to me that unless the Packers can generate a consistent pass rush with 4, maybe 5, rushers it’ll be a tough time holding good offenses under 30 points.

The defensive backs seemed to do OK, just couldn’t make a play on the final drive…while injuries are no excuse and It’s realistic to expect that the dbacks could be roughed up for the rest of the season, the optimist in me hopes these kids (Gunter #36 mainly) grows up fast and can turn into a really good player.

The greater concern for Packer fans should arise from Clay Matthews missing yet another game and not being available to at least provide depth to what we now know is the major key to the defense: pass rush.  There’s an argument to be made for Green Bay to not keep him on the roster next year with his salary cap hitting $17,350,000 next year…for a player that’s not nearly as productive as Nick Perry this season and being on the wrong side of 30 doesn’t have the upside of Kyler Fackrell, for example.

To be clear, I’m not advocating to cut Clay Matthews, but don’t be shocked OR mad if it happens in camp next year if this lack of production continues.

Preview – the Colts are one of the more odd teams in the NFL.  They seem to be the poor man’s version of the Green Bay Packers.  Indianapolis has one of the premier players in the NFL, Andrew Luck, but he’s not as productive/efficient as he receives credit.  Luck has 16 passing TDs while throwing 5 interceptions with 4 fumbles.  Those are very similar numbers to his counterpart, Aaron Rodgers (17 TDs, 4 INTs, 6 fumbles), and as usual it’ll likely come down to the play of the QB in this one, just like last week.  The Colts have an over-the-hill running back in Frank Gore, an awful offensive line, and decent talent at receiver led by TY Hilton.  Hilton is a speed receiver that ran a 4.34 forty-yard dash at the combine and can pose a deep threat.  I believe the absolute key to this game is to generate a consistent pass rush and get in Luck’s face.  He’s prone to turning the ball over with his immense strength and athletic ability to keep plays alive, it should be used against him by forcing him to make throws under duress.

The Packers offense gets Ty Montgomery back this week, and there’s no reason to think that he shouldn’t be a major difference-maker in this one.  He’s turning into a matchup issue for opposing defenses and until we see someone stop him, expect him to be the extension of the running game (short passes out of the backfield, draws, and screens).  The offensive line played OK v Atlanta, but missed a few assignments on crucial plays in the 2^nd half.  Starting center JC Tretter will miss this game, but Green Bay returns Corey Linsley, who is a better run blocker than Tretter and, I believe, just as good if not better than Tretter overall at the center position.

Look for some points to be scored this week, for what it’s worth the over/under is 55 and Green Bay is favored by 8….seems about right.  This is a below average Colts team that’s desperate for a win, but there’s a reason they’re desperate for a win – they’re not good.  The Packers should win this game, and if playing to their capabilities could roll easily.

Colts 27
Packers 34

*Unfortunately I picked a LOSS correctly last week…record is now 14-11.*

The Atlanta Falcons sure looked like they’d be the next test for the Green Bay Packers in what was supposed to be the easiest schedule in the NFL entering the 2016 season.  With Atlanta getting jobbed on a no-call of Pass Interference by Richard Sherman on Julio Jones in the waning seconds of a 26-24 loss in Seattle AND what can only be described as a choke v San Diego, the Falcons’ record (4-3) could easily be 6-1 and a major matchup.  However, with consecutive losses, with the latest coming against an average San Diego team, the Packers have a better shot at heading into the Georgia dome and contending with the high-powered Falcons offense.

Again, I don’t believe this Packers team is great, or can be great with the current makeup of the GM, Head Coach, and QB combination, but that doesn’t mean it’s OK for them to continue looking like they’re stuck in neutral on offense.  The Falcons defense isn’t loaded with great talent, but possess a great defensive-minded head coach in Dan Quinn (formerly Seattle’s defensive coordinator) and will likely approach the stale McCarthy-led offense in the same manner the Cowboys and Giants did, as was laid out by the Broncos last year – show up in a 4-3 defense (4 defensive linemen, 3 linebackers), play man coverage and only rush 3 to 4 defenders.  The idea is to keep Rodgers in the pocket and not have him make a quick decision…it’s a recipe for success, sadly.  It’ll be interesting to see if Green Bay continues to use Ty Montgomery in the same fashion they did last Thursday night v Chicago.

POTENTIAL NIGHTMARE – If you have Julio Jones on your fantasy team, expect a lot of points.  Julio Jones, with megatron retired, is the most-gifted and physically built WR in the NFL.  He’s a 6’3” 220lb matchup problem that ran a 4.39 forty-yard dash at the combine (and doesn’t seem to have slowed any since).  With the Packers’ top 3 cornerbacks possibly out, the pass rush for Green Bay must get home, and get home fast if they have any visions of slowing down Julio (who earlier this year had a 300-yard game).

The major issue is this Packers offense, if it hasn’t been talked about enough already, and seems to need gimmicks and every play in the book just to get 1-2 drives to move the ball…all in all I’m not too optimistic with this matchup.  Hopefully Aaron can duplicate his production from the playoff game in Jan 2011 and light up the scoreboard in Atlanta, but I won’t hold my breath.

Packers 23
Falcons 31

*13-11, with obvious hopes of going 13-12 after this game :)*

Recap – no way around it, the Packers got their asses kicked Sunday.  In every facet.  Further proving this offense is all screwed up and I believe there’s plenty of blame to pass.  However, in the interest of time (as it’s 6:56p CST and I need this posted before 7:26p CST) we can cover who’s to blame and why sometime next week.

Preview—the Bears are arguably the worst team in the NFL, but based on how the Packers have been playing and they’re missing their top 3 cornerbacks could prove to be an issue v a Chicago-led passing attack of Brian Hoyer.  With the Packers wearing ALL WHITE (would be absolutely awesome if the NFL allowed Green Bay to wear a white helmet), the Packers need to run the ball well with newly-acquired Knile Davis and practice squad-caliber Don Jackson.  If all were perfect, a lot of under center with fullback formations could do wonders if Green Bay is able to run the ball effectively (see 1^st half v Detroit) and it opens up the entire field for any type of play.  I don’t see Rodgers’ accuracy returning unless he somehow fixed his footwork/mechanics in 1 practice since Sunday ‘nor do I see the offense switching completely in that same amount of time.

However, the Bears are awful and just based on pure talent alone, the Packers should win in spite of offensive scheme, horrendous QB play, and 4^th and 5^th corners starting.  Albeit short, I promise to elaborate next week in what’s hopefully a recap of a win.

Bears 20
Packers 23

*Overall record is 12-11 (god last week should be an eye-opener, again I’ll explain next week).*

The Packers came out with another strong defensive performance against a struggling frustrated Giants offense.  While the run defense was again nothing short of great, the pass defense benefited from multiple ugly throws by Eli Manning.  There were 2 in particular Manning missed which likely would’ve resulted in 10-14 point swings.  However, give credit to the defense for getting consistent pressure on Manning and forcing some bad throws while keeping him uncomfortable all night.

Now…if you’ve listened to any of the local sports radio, or even some national radio outlets the Packers’ offense has struggled all season – outside of the 1^st half v Detroit.  Green Bay also has failed to score a touchdown in the 2^nd half of any game this season, which should be more than alarming.  This has been going on since the NFC title game at Seattle in January 2015.  The greatest drive I can remember in the past few season occurred to open the game this past week against New York – 16 play, 75 yard, 8 minute 42 second drive that ended in a touchdown.  The Packers were NOT in a no-huddle, went under center often (I didn’t count this time, sorry) and used play action…hell, it resembled a true west coast offense.  Eddie Lacy displayed his great vision, yet again, rushing 11 times for 81 yards (7.4 yds/carry).  Now just imagine if he weighed 30lbs less like he did at the NFL combine…something incredible, ehh?  Jordy Nelson had a couple of nice catches but were outnumbered by the horrific, and almost catastrophic, drops.

Let’s take a look at the next opponent, the Dallas Cowboys.  They come in boasting the #1 rush offense which is the best test Green Bay’s #1 rush defense could ask for.  Expect Dallas to pound the ball with #21 (Ezekiel Elliott), the former Ohio St. star has rushed for >130 yards in each of his last 3 games.  Dallas has a nice backup in Alfred Morris (formerly with the Redskins) who has 30 carries for 128 yards and 2 TDs.  The Cowboys are considered to have the best offensive line in the NFL as well, which is a major reason why rookie quarterback Dak Prescott (#4) is having such an incredible start to his career.

The match-ups: Dallas has the #2 overall offense (1 rush/21 pass) going against Green Bay’s 9^th rated defense (1 rush/24 pass).  If the Packers can keep Dallas under 100 yards rushing that should be the key indicator to how this game will shake out.  Green Bay’s secondary has given up some big plays but the pass rush should create enough havoc – barring they stop the run to not become susceptible to play action – to limit Dallas’ passing attack.  While being different teams, last year’s rain-soaked matchup (if memory serves me right) the Packers struggled to contain the rush giving up 171 yards on 20 carries.  The Packers benefited from Dallas trotting out Matt Cassel at quarterback…Dak has already proven he’s effective enough to take Romo’s job.

It’s a tough matchup, and with how #12’s awful play the last 22 games, I wouldn’t be shocked should Green Bay lose this game (or any game for that matter), but I don’t think Dallas has enough on defense to shut down Lacy or get enough pressure on Rodgers to keep Green Bay under 24 points.

Cowboys 16
Packers 24

*After the victory, the record now stands at 12-10. *