What was lost in the “magic” of last week’s comeback was the reason the Packers fell down 20-0 in the 3^rd quarter.  Calling the gameplan “suspect,” would be doing a disservice to OJ’s status in the murder trial in 1994 (too soon?).  McCarthy opened the game with a couple of runs with some good gains, then completely bailed on any formation that would offer deception (5-wide) and subsequently shot his team in the foot.  Momentum, gone.  The Packers over the past few years have shown to start games off strong.  Mac’s gameplan tested the Bears to see if and how they’d use Khalil Mack—which was (without hindsight) dumb.

As for Mike Pettine’s newfound defense…the first series seemed all too familiar from the Dom Capers’-led defenses of the last 9 years.  However, upon seeing Nagy’s offense (Chicago’s new head coach, former OC from Kansas City), the defense tightened up.  So much that the packers gave up 294 yards total. After getting dominated on the first two possessions, the newly led defense progressively improved ultimately saving their best for last…overcoming the ultimate bonehead play by 10-year vet, Clay Matthews, and turning the ball over on downs.  Should Green Bay avg. 294 yards given up/game, that’d land them 4th in yards last year.  Based on math alone, Rodgers converts top 5 defenses into a Super Bowl victory 50% of the time…

Currently on the season, Rodgers ranks 17^th with a rating of 64.2 from ProFootballFocus.com.  Many (if not all) would argue the value of ranking/grading, however over the course of the season it’s pretty objective and consistent among all players.  What it doesn’t take into account is the fact that QBs (Rodgers for this example) throws to his WRs with the idea they can make a play, it’s how the offense is designed.  So technically he gets “dinged” on those grades sometimes.  Either way, there’s zero chance the Packers win without him, or that throw to Allison…yeah buddy!

Let’s move on to the next opponent: Minnesota.  Since 1992 (Favre’s first season playing) the Vikings have been the main rival to Green Bay.  The defending NFC North champions (as if that’s an accomplishment, oh wait, it is for 3 teams…) bring the 2^nd and 3^rd ranked DTs to the Packers’ woeful OL Sunday.  Mike Zimmer (Min’s head coach) loves to jam the middle of the opposition’s OL, and that’s the Packers’ weakness on offense: Taylor (66.6); Linsley (59.8); McCray (68.4).  Minnesota hold the strong advantage vs the Packers and that could stymie the ground attack that McCarthy desperately needs to establish if he wants to come out victorious.  The rest of the Vikings defense didn’t’ score all that well (source: PFF), Linval Joseph (89.9) and Sheldon Richardson (89.8) pose a serious problem, but if the Packers can mimic the gameplan from the 2^nd half of the Bears game, there’s a real chance they could control the entire game, and score more points than their opponent (yay! 🙂 ).

Kirk Cousins, nicknames Captain Kirk from the great William Shatner, otherwise I call him “Captain Average,” was just that, 71.4 (11^th) vs. a bad 49er defense.  If the Packers can create a little pressure or disguise coverage, there’s a chance they could create a couple interceptions, and if one could go for 6 that might be the difference needed to win the game.

Overall—there’s part of me that thinks Rodgers + McCarthy have enough “winning” experience to pull through >50% in a close game, however, I just can’t bring myself to pick the Packers to win this game.  I’ll be there to lose my voice and cheer them on, doing my part, but hopefully I’m wrong.

Vikings 23
Packers 20

33-20: win this and 2-0 with a bunch of tiebreakers would set the best tone for a season to build on!!!!!!!!!!

Bear week.  Since 1992 it’s seemed to account for an automatic 1.75 wins/year for Green Bay.  Will it be that way again?  Let’s take a look.

Chicago—if you haven’t heard, you’re likely not reading this, but the Bears acquired Khalil Mack, arguably the best defensive player in the NFL.  Chicago already had a top 10 defense (9^th) a season ago and with adding Mack, likely will only improve.  The Bears are the latest team to follow the trend of trying to build a winner around (what they think is) a talented QB before having to pay him QB $.  From what we saw of Mitch Trubisky a season ago left a lot to be desired.  Many Chicago sportscasters/writers claim his instincts from the tape they watched on him at UNC were “great.” However, 2 of the three sacks he took from Nick Perry last year stick in my mind that were automatic throw aways without being under duress and he still found a way to take a sack, twice.  Of course QBs can (and do) grow, however I’ll be skeptical on Mitchell’s growth until I see it…at least enough growth to turn Chicago into a title contender.

Green Bay—the return of Aaron Rodgers is obviously a difference-maker between making the postseason and being a 7-9 ball club.  The optimist in me says that was a great thing as it cleaned most of the house (Ted, Capers, etc.), but 2 of the 3 remain: QB; Head Coach.  Hopefully new Defensive Coordinator, Mike Pettine, can have the impact like he did in NY when he was with the Jets…those were some solid defenses that were QB’d by an atrocious player, Mark Sanchez.  As for this game, look for the Packers to disguise their pressure, but to get after the 2^nd year man (Trubisky) and force his decision-making to his 1^st or 2^nd read in hopes that the zone is tight and they can pick him off a couple of times.

As for how this game goes, for some reason I think it’ll be like the regular season game from 2016 vs the NY Giants.  The Packers won 23-16, but Rodgers threw 2 TDs with 2 INTs, very un-Rodgers-like, but the defense was able to keep Eli out of the end zone for the most part and essentially win the game.  I think this game will resemble that…the Bears have a solid defense, and the Packers have talent on the defensive-side of the ball, since it’s the regular season and no impact of weather, I’ll trust the better QB to take care of the ball at times where it matters and to make a few more throws in key situations.

Bears 16
Packers 23

Record: 32-20…Go Pack Go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

YESH!!! (Marv Albert voice).  The NFL is officially here!  Of course that brings a whole bunch of excitement, and for some Packer fans, it led off with the painful announcement of the Chicago Bears acquiring the best defender in the game to shore up an already top 10 defense.  Khalil Mack could’ve possibly have been the Reggie White-type acquisition this team seems to require in order to win another Lombardi trophy.  However, he’s down in Chicago, hopefully wasting his career and never winning a ring.

With that, let’s get onto the season.  As you may recall, the Philadelphia Eagles turned around from 7-9 in 2016 to earn the 1 seed at 13-3 and win the Super Bowl.  Is there a team capable of that this year??? (see where I’m going with this?).  Let’s find out!

Again, I actually nerd-out and take the time to go through every game of every team and mark the W/L for each accordingly, here’s what we have.

AFC North				NFC North
3Baltimore	10	6		1Green Bay	11	5
5Pittsburgh	10	6		5Minnesota	11	5
Cincinnati	6	10		Chicago	8	8
Cleveland	5	11		Detroit	6	10
AFC South				NFC South
4Houston	10	6		3Atlanta	10	6
6Jacksonville	10	6		6New Orleans	10	6
Tennessee	7	9		Carolina	9	7
Indianapolis	4	12		Tampa Bay	6	10
AFC East				NFC East
1New England	13	3		4Philadelphia	9	7
Buffalo	9	7		Dallas	8	8
Miami	5	11		Washington	8	8
NY Jets	4	12		NY Giants	4	12
AFC West				NFC West
2LA Chargers	11	5		2LA Rams	10	6
Oakland	9	7		San Francisco	9	7
Kansas City	8	8		Seattle	6	10
Denver	8	8		Arizona	4	12

While I feel realistic about Green bay going 11-5, I don’t think 11-5 will net the 1 seed.  However, in this case, that’s what happened.  So let’s go!  With these standings there were some tiebreakers that would go to the 3^rd or even 4^th line, without figuring the score for each game of each team I just gave the div titles to Bal, Hou, and Atl.  Is it important? Absolutely, but we carry on.

Wildcard round—

• Min @ Phi—rematch of the NFC title game, and I think it’s much closer than that game, however I believe the result is the same: the Eagles fly to Green Bay winning 24-20.
• NO @ Atl—a divisional rival match, which I believe home field is so important…Atlanta triumphs with their opportunistic defense and bests Brees and the Saints, 27-21.
• Jax @ Bal—yawn, for us NFC fans, however this could be a defensive battle and while rookie QB Lamar Jackson provides a shot in the arm, it’s too little too late vs the Jaguars great defense, Jags move on: 21-17.
• Pit @ Hou—this has Saturday night written all over it, and it could be fun! The Watt bros. battle it out, along with all the dynamic playmakers on both teams on both sides of the ball…this could be fun! It might resemble the 2016 divisional playoff game when a savvy vet (Rodgers) in this case, Big Ben, comes into the young, inexperienced QB (Dak) Watson and we have a shootout!  I tip my cap to the vet, Steelers win a nail-bitter: 34-31.

Divisional Round—

• Phi @ GB—better take care of home field! The defending champs come to Lambeau in a Saturday night battle at Lambeau in a “warm” January night (30 degrees), Rodgers and the offense, littered with rookies that have hit the proverbial wall, but warm up in the 2^nd half and pull out a sloppy game: 29-24.
• Atl @ LAR—a wild card rematch, however this one is a bit more fun than last year’s…Jared Goff and Gurley III light up the scoreboard, but they’re done in by one of their many big offseason acquisitions, Marcus Peters. He gets beat late in the 4^th, twice by Julio Jones and the Falcons win: 28-24.
• Jax @ NE—what’s the point of breaking this down? Tom at home, in the playoffs…they win: 31-14.
• Pit @ LAC—is this Philip Rivers’ last hoorah?   This generation’s version of Dan Marino continues to carry that torch and doesn’t win when the lights are bright.  While the Chargers may have the most-balanced team of talent spread out in the NFL, the lack of experience is just too much…Steel city prevails: 27-14.

Championship Sunday—(one of the best days of the year)

• Pit @ NE—while this is the 2^nd game of the day, let’s save the best for last. Big Ben vs Tommy Boy.  What a great final 4 on Champ Sunday.  The Steelers lead late, by 3, with the ball and they’re driving, but are held to a field goal.  The Pats get the ball back on the 25 after a touchback with 1:47 left….you know how this ends—Brady hits some no-name WR for a TD with 0:06 left and the Pats go to their 9^th Super Bowl in the Brady/Belicheck era: 28-27.
• Atl @ GB—a 2016 rematch of the boat race in Atlanta. This is a back & forth match up, but the Packers’ lack of OL depth does them in when Bulaga exits early with an injury, and while the musical chairs OL holds up for most of the game, a key 3^rd and 7 late in the 4^th with Green Bay leading, allows quick pressure and Rodgers dumps it off to Monty for a 5-yard gain to their own 40.  The Packers punt and pin Atlanta deep, but the rookie Corners I mentioned earlier give way to the best WR in the game, Julio, for 2 big 4^th down conversions and Matty Ice dumps off a 4^th and goal with 0:20 left to Coleman for a TD…Atlanta is victorious, in Lambeau, in the title game (ugh, god that would suck so hard b/c I’d probably pay to go): 27-24.

Super Bowl LIII—

• Atl vs NE—version 2.0. As much as it would blow for the Packers to be at home in the title game, to have what every NFL fan deserves (Brady v Rodgers super bowl), we would be treated to a rematch of the best Super Bowl ever.
  • Could Matt Ryan choke any harder than 28-3? That’s actually impossible…I think…but if anyone could???
• Tom comes through to Gronk for 2 scores early 14-0 in the 1^st, but don’t score entering the 4^th, with Atlanta up 17-14. They trade TDs with Tom getting the ball with 5 minutes left down 24-21…Brady hands it off to rookie Sony Michel for a score to regain the lead, 28-24.  Matt Ryan has a chance to redeem himself and lead a 2 minute drill for 6 to best the GOAT, on the biggest stage.  (Enter choke artist)…they come up short on 4^th & 8 on the Pats’ 25.  Brady hoists his 6^th Lombardi trophy and everyone outside of Boston is pissed.

The main question is, if this happens, Green Bay losing a home NFC title game, again, under Mike McCarthy, is that enough to move the Big Guy out of town?  I don’t know, but regardless, I’d feel a LOT better going into 2019 as those rookies, whom I believe are going to be good, at least 3 of them, will get a ton of great experience…If you’re still reading, you’re likely Ruth 🙂

 

Hello, it’s been a while, again, however I thought it’d be less stressful to let the preseason playout vs. writing weekly trying to figure out things that ultimately won’t matter, i.e. who will be the 7^th wide receiver, will the Packers keep 3 quarterbacks, etc.  With that, let’s cover the major items that have occurred since Aug 4^th.

Aaron Rodgers’ contract – the Packers and their uber-talented QB agreed to a 4 year, $134M extension.  What does this mean?  Better question that I’ve posed is How does this help the Green Bay Packers?  Honestly.

• Did it free up some cap space? Maybe for this year, and possibly next.  Not enough space to give the ability to acquire, say, Khalil Mack (more on that later, btw).
• Does this give the Packers more control, longer control? Not really, the Packers had 2 years of contract remaining (2018 and 2019), then could franchise tag him for 3 years following (2020 would be an avg. of the top 5 salaries for QBs, 2021 would be 120% of that salary, 2022 would be 140% of 2021’s salary).
• Does it make him happy, and re-motivate him? Hopefully he didn’t need that to be better.
• Does this mean Rodgers will let off and fade away? Doubtful, he doesn’t strike me as the person, player that will fall off, at least not because he was paid. Age?  That might be a different reason, but he was under control until he was 39 anyway.

Khalil Mack—with the Rodgers contract out of the way, the fans’ next priority was to go after Mack, arguably the best defender in the NFL.  As I write this, the Bears and Raiders have agreed to a trade that will send the 2-time All-Pro to Chicago in exchange for what is believed to be multiple 1^st round draft picks and possibly a starting caliber player.  While I would’ve been all for this trade by the Packers, the problem is Chicago could offer more, AND justify spending more $ on Mack with their available cap space.

53-Man Roster—I write this (well began before the cuts) after the finalized roster was made.  Although there were some puzzling cuts/keeps, I think the roster will change over a bit before the week 1 kickoff vs. Chicago.  However, the Packers kept 8 WRs, 4 TEs, and 2 HBs.  We know there will be a change come Week 3 with the Halfbacks once Aaron Jones is reinstated after serving his 2-game suspension.  He’s also, I believe, the best back the Packers have.  After that, there were no Fullbacks kept which is a sign of possibly 2 things:

1. There will be no I-form sets this year L (QB under center, with a fullback and Halfback both directly lined up behind the QB).
2. Mercedes Lewis and/or Lance Kendricks will be used as a make-shift FB…I’m all for that!

It still feels like Brian Gutekunst will be making changes prior to Sun, Sept 9^th.  Plus, as I write this (11p-ish  on Sept 1) there are rumors about Green Bay making trades for Sea’s all-world Safety, Earl Thomas (yes please).  There are also players cut by other teams (Min DE Brian Robison for example) that could come in and contribute at areas of need, immediately.  Either way, from what Gutey has shown so far, he’s a bit more active, while being conservatively smart, than his predecessor was of late.

Optimism??—many of you that converse with me, especially consistently, know how I feel about almost every aspect of this great organization…however, there’s a reason to think this team can win a Super Bowl this year.  It might take quite a bit of luck and timing, but then again, what team that wins doesn’t require that stuff?

1. Luck—I could cover health, but that’s too obvious/easy. How about not getting screwed in a key game with these new helmet-to-helmet penalties?  I truly worry that a team’s season will come down to, what many consider (myself included), the wussification of the NFL.
2. Timing—what I mean by timing is a bit difficult to follow, but here’s hoping I’m able to communicate properly. Rookies rarely contribute, it usually takes 2+ years for them to help in a major way, unless you’re the 2017 Saints…the rookies will need early snaps to get their feet wet, but the veterans to fill in when the learning curve gets to be too much, so the Packers can still win games.  Then later in the season, before the rookie wall hits they can contribute so the veterans don’t get burned out and can save their legs.  Does that all make sense?

If that happens, along with the new defense gelling enough, this team could earn a top 2 seed in the NFC.  If the Packers can get the 1 seed, there’s a realistic chance they could get to the Super Bowl…and as critical as I am of Aaron Rodgers, all I can judge him on in the Super Bowl is an MVP-caliber performance, which is expected if he gets there again J

Realistically?—the optimistic-realist in me thinks any team experiencing this much change doesn’t win a World Championship the following season.  I do believe the Green & Gold can get to the playoffs and possibly win a game – stop me if that sounds familiar – but the soonest they win a ring is next year, then again does that mean it’s impossible?

 

Good bye summer??  Hopefully not too soon, but with training camp well under way we all know what the weather does, at least we have football to hold us until February…

If you’re reading this, you’ve likely been keeping up to date with the goings on at Packers training camp.  Aaron Rodgers has been intercepted 6 times already (as of Aug 4^th when I’m writing this) and many are trying to figure out if it’s his arm, or the Mike Pettine-led defense.  Obviously Packer fans are all hoping for the latter, which it likely is, it also is August 4^th…essentially the time for no-namers to get their time to shine.  The promising thing is the positive updates from the first round pick, Jaire Alexander.  He’s impressed everyone so far in camp and hopefully that trend continues.  Kevin King (2017’s first pick, 33^rd overall) has also looked healthy and promising—both will need to play a big role and contribute if this team has any shot at winning the Super Bowl.

With Family Night just a few hours away, it’ll be nice to see Packer football (even if it’s a glorified practice) on TV to get the routine down again.  Don’t look for anything in particular tonight, other than that just hoping no one gets hurt and that the ball doesn’t hit the ground an inordinate amount of times.  What you may see, and what I’m “excited” to watch for is the increase of speed at the skill positions, especially Wide Receiver.  It’s tough for rookies to contribute in a major factor, with their speed and the speed coming from the 2^nd year players (Kevin King and Josh Jones) it should increase the overall team speed, which may be considered a strength by season’s end.

The news of Bryan Bulaga being cleared to play was also a welcome update as that solidifies the offensive line to a comfortable point; leaving the Right Guard spot the only open hole for competition.

Again, just a light practice tonight, hopefully no injuries, then gear up for the RG competition and the Tennessee Titans on Thursday, Aug 9^th at Lambeau!

 

 

Well well well…what a difference a General Manager makes.  I’d argue the biggest difference.  After letting more than enough time to pass to chew on Brian Gutekunst’s first draft as the lead man at 1265, it seems like he had a plan and executed it as best he could—improve the roster for now & later.  Let’s begin with the draft, his first 2 picks addressed an area of need while also taking the best potential players available.

1^st Jaire Alexander (CB – Louisville): many will compare him to Terrell Buckley based purely on size and athleticism.  However, many scouting reports and ProFootball Focus state that when healthy, this was the best pure-cover corner in the draft.  Considering of all stats and traits PFF researches, corner coverage is their 2^nd best “predictor” in production at the NFL coming from college.  That’s a great sign, plus this kid has confidence and attitude.

2^nd Joshua Jackson (CB – Iowa): if you remember from my last entry, I had Joshua Jackson and Jaire Alexander rated as the top two cornerbacks, respectively.  The fact Gutey was able to get both AND acquire the Saints’ 1^st round pick in 2019 that alone tells me he crushed this draft.  Jackson is a bigger corner that ran slow at the combine, but vastly improved his 40-time at Iowa’s pro day + he may have the best ball skills in the country (remember both pick-6’s vs. Wisconsin at Camp Randall late in the year).

I could comment on the other draft picks, but let’s generalize, shall we?  The Packers drafted a punter, long snapper, 3 fasts wide receivers, a cover ILB (I assume to replace Joe Thomas), and a guard that has the potential to start from the beginning and could make an immediate impact.

Again, to fully analyze the draft, one must wait 3-4 years and look back to see how those players developed and what they became.  However, if given the benefit of hindsight, wouldn’t everyone be amazing?  Had you told me the Green Bay would draft two of the top 3 corners in the draft AND get an additional 1^st round pick in the 2019 draft, I’m not sure how anyone would be upset with that—and that’s where I’m setting my focus.

It’s been some time since I wrote, and it may be a little while until next, but in the meantime hopefully the young kids with some sprinkled veterans on the defense can pick up Pettine’s new scheme and actually have a successful season- for the first time in many.

Draft day is finally upon us—a day that, if you master, you’re almost assured of keeping your job as General Manager.  It’s less risky than building through Free Agency as you’re given a 4-year window to young and constantly improving players while on the cheap vs. paying “already proven” players a high amount then rarely do they produce to the dollar amount they’re receiving.

Why the Draft is Awesome!— I’ve been a big proponent of the Draft & Develop philosophy, mainly because while giving you the best chance to build the best roster over the course of a long time, it also gives you the most lee-way (never know if that’s the correct spelling for that) to make “mistakes.”  Quick example, if you (your team J ) misses on a 1^st round pick, it doesn’t guarantee your team will be stuck.  If your team misses on a big free agent, then you’re almost assured to be hamstrung for the next 2-3 years in the salary cap.  Example, see Justin Harrell…the 16^th overall (Packers 1^st) selection of the 2007 NFL Draft.  He was the epitome of a BUST, however compare that to the Packers signing Joe Johnson (former Saints DE) in 2002 to a 6-year $33M contract—which at the time was monstrous—and he played 11 games over 2 years before Green Bay cut him. That negative return far outweighs the bust of Harrell, not saying it’s OK to pick BUSTS, but the odds of picking a BUST in the 1^st round is less-likely than having a high-priced free agent play to the big contract he receives.  Also, given that the 1^st round selection has the highest chance of turning into something special (vs any other round selection)—the best teams rarely get involved in what former GMs call the “Stupid Money Stage,” the first few days of free agency.

To close, I’m not saying Free Agency should be avoided at all costs, it actually serves a great purpose in building the best roster.  It should be used for fringe guys to fill holes on a roster, for example, last year the Packers signed Jahri Evans to fill in at Right Guard…he started 14 games and rated as average (per Pro Football Focus) as a starter.  That’s what you want from free agency, low-risk, and solid-return.

Ok—onto the 2018 draft…

Rare Air—Packers fans find themselves in rare territory.    A top 20 pick, which since Aaron Rodgers took over as starting QB (2008), has only had once: BJ Raji selected at 9^th overall in the 2009 draft.  Green Bay sits at 14, which should net a high-talent/good player.  It’s also a funny position because in order to move up, you’d likely be moving into the top-10, which would cost a ton, and by trading back, say to the 20’s, may not net you enough in return.  It’s likely the Packers will stay at 14 and hopefully stick with picking the Best Available.  Yes that may seem boring, however that usually the best method in order to building the best football team, but it especially holds true when the Packers have as many holes on the roster as they do…let’s take a look, shall we?

There are a bevy of players the Packers could have fall to them that would look nice wearing Green and Gold.  We know the first 4 selections (in no order of course), so we can take those guys out right away:

1. Saquon Barkley- HB Penn St. (the best player in the draft, in my opinion)
2. Josh Rosen- QB UCLA
3. Sam Darnold- QB USC
4. Josh Allen- QB Wyoming

After those guys, it’s a guess as to who, what, where, and when guys will go.  It’s assumed the best edge-rusher (and some say overall player) in this draft is Bradley Chubb, the standout DE from NC St.  One can almost guarantee he won’t fall to Green Bay at 14, however there’s an obvious need for a pass rush (unless the USC boys play to their contracts—Clay Matthews and Nick Perry).  Aside from Chubb, the list shortens pretty quick, look for the Packers to add a rusher early as it’s an area of need and it’s not a deep draft for those guys—potentials are:

1. Bradly Chubb- DE NC St. (would need to trade up to get him)
2. Marcus Davenport- DE UTSA (this pick screams Ted Thompson)
3. Harold Landry- DE/OLB Boston College (maybe a reach at 14, but would love to either trade back and still get him or ideally pick someone at 14 then trade back up and take him).

Aside from Edge-rusher there are other huge needs on this team, and yet still some have been for years; Secondary.  Even with the signing of Tramon Williams (9^th rated cornerback from 2017 by PFF) and Davon House, the Packers still need a long-term answer to go along with their first selection last year (Kevin King).  It seems that Josh Jones was selected as the replacement for Morgan Burnett—otherwise known as Captain Average.  Jones has sky-high potential and flashed as a rookie, if he can make the jump from year 1 to year 2 like Kenny Clark and Blake Martinez did, then the Packers have found a real playmaker.  The list of corners are deep in this draft and don’t be surprised if new GM Brian Gutekunst picks them early and often.  Here’s a likely list of secondary guys that the Packers could select at 14:

1. Joshua Jackson- CB Iowa
2. Jaire Alexander- CB Louisville
3. Denzel Ward- CB Ohio St.
4. Derwin James- S FSU (the 2^nd best player in this draft, in my opinion)
5. Minkah Fitzpatrick- S Alabama

Those seem to be the obvious and popular guys rumored to be coveted by Gutey, however there’s a chance he could also pick a wideout or even an offensive lineman.  Many may be upset, however there’s a need at each of those positions as well.  If that’s the route Green Bay chooses there is only 1 lineman that comes to mind and a few pass catchers:

1. Quenton Nelson- OG Notre Dame
2. Courtland Sutton- WR SMU
3. James Washington- WR Okla St.
4. Calvin Ridley- WR Alabama

Closing out—General Manager, Brian Gutekunst, finds himself almost in a can’t-lose situation tonight.  If he trades up it’s likely for Bradley Chubb or Derwin James, which would be tough to argue (as of tonight).  If he trades back he’s just adding picks which is rarely the wrong move.  If he selects any of the names I listed, they will certainly fill an immediate and long-term need.  With that, if you’re a junkie as much as I am, you will have fun tonight!

The unofficial kick-off to summer is here…OPENING DAY!!!!!!!  I know I’ve been out of touch lately, especially with anything but the Packers, however it doesn’t mean I care less.  Let’s take a look as to what to expect from the Milwaukee Brewers this year and moving forward!

2017—last year’s “unexpected success” has caused a lot of well-deserved hype leading into the 2018 campaign, but why?  The Brewers finished 86-76 (.531) when many (yours truly included) anticipated a far less winning total heading into the season.  There were many factors that led to this, like the breakout of Chase Anderson—dropping his ERA from 4.39 in 2016 to a suffocating 2.74 in 2017.  Had he pitched in enough games to qualify, that would’ve been good enough for 5^th in the major leagues.

The other breakout star was Travis “Mayor of Ding Dong City” Shaw…the 3B whom was acquired from the Boston Red Sox for pitcher Tyler Thornburg…hit .300 for a majority of the year and was the Crew’s top run producer of a year ago with 101 RBI.  This paired with many other solid performances leads fans and the front-office to believe the likelihood of repeat performances are high.

2018—with that belief comes a more assertive direction, thus the Brewers acquired Christian Yelich in a major trade with the Miami Marlins.  Yelich is one of the premier hitters in the game and the best part about him is everything.  He’s young (26), has quite a bit of experience (5 years), has shown steady improvement each year, has a Gold Glove, is just a great hitter, and is on a very affordable contract ($7m/year).  Include former Brewer, Lorenzo Cain, along with the already crowded Outfield and the Brewers should have one of the top offensive lineups in the majors.

So to recap, the Brewers did not really add pitching, aside from Jhoulys Chacin (who could be sneaky great for Milwaukee), after last year the Brewers finished 9^th in team ERA and 20^th in runs scored.  The offense did falter down the stretch in late August and September last year which ultimately cost them enough games to not make the 1-game wild card (which if they had won they would’ve made the playoffs—that’s a whole ‘nother topic).

Many experts and Vegas are aligned with the Brewers expected win total of anywhere between 85 and 88 wins.  Even though the Brewers have added pieces, big pieces, and won 86 games last year the question poses “Why wouldn’t they be expected to win more?”  With Jimmy Nelson going down and not being available until later this season, as well as the realistic expectations of Chase Anderson not producing like he did last year, it seems like the Crew should be poised to be “in it” leading up to the trade deadline, again, which could make for a fun July and if things fall correctly a really fun fall!

Prediction: 87-75; 2^nd in division

World Series: Cubs > Indians (which would suck for us Brewer fans)

Packers Review— this season certainly didn’t end the way most fans wanted, however the good that came from it could potentially be a change in the General Manager.  My main concern is the new GM, Brian Gutekunst, doesn’t have full authority of what he should have…the entire team.  It’s been well-documented that there’s a new reporting structure with the 3 heads now reporting into President Mark Murphy.  That 3-headed monster is now Mike McCarthy (Head Coach), Brian Gutekunst (General Mgr.), and Russ Ball (EVP- Football Ops, aka Finances).  After all of this, let’s see if Ted Thompson stays with his true passion; scouting.  There are just a lot of things that should make Packer fans hesitant about expecting a ton of change, but at least there was some change…

2017 NFL Review – Well my preseason predictions were WAY off, then again so were most.  I did have the Patriots representing the AFC in the Super Bowl, but winning over the Packers.  I correctly selected 6 playoff teams for a 50% mark, which I guess isn’t bad based on how many new division winners the NFL had this year.  The major one I missed was the eventual Super Bowl champions, Philadelphia Eagles.  The other team that took a jump and established they may be a problem for a few years is the New Orleans Saints.  They had, arguably, one of the best drafts in the last 20-30 years based on rookie production.

The other surprise team was the Jacksonville Jaguars, who had a 10-point lead in the 4^th quarter of the AFC Championship game at Foxboro.  They were led by a stellar defense, that’s young for the most part and extremely talented.  Look for them to play a similar style next year by possessing the ball with rookie standout, Leonard Fournette, and using their amazing cornerbacks to bring pressure and force you into mistakes.  All in all a pretty weird season with major injuries to superstars – not just Aaron Rodgers, but JJ Watt, Odell Beckham Jr., Carson Wentz, and more.

2018 Preview—it’s a safe bet to pencil in New England as a top 2 seed in the AFC, giving them almost a 50% shot at making next year’s Super Bowl.  As for the NFC there are quite a few other teams that could easily make the case as the NFC representative: Philadelphia; Los Angeles; Minnesota; Green Bay; New Orleans; Atlanta.  I’ve crunched some numbers and actually had an interesting topic arise this week locally regarding Aaron Rodgers’ contract status.  Let’s take a look.

With San Francisco locking up Jimmy Garoppolo for an all-time high contract, the question turns to Aaron Rodgers and how much will he garner for an extension?  Jimmy G inked a 5 year $137.5M deal which led to a question, “How much would you pay Aaron Rodgers?”  The other question is, “Can the Packers win while paying Rodgers?”  I thought of looking at it from a different perspective.  Since 1992, the Super Bowl champion has finished the season averaging 9^th in yards and 6^th in points in total defense.  This last year the Eagles ranked 4^th in both categories, where the Patriots finished 29^th and 5^th, respectively in those categories.

For instance, the Packers have ranked (from 2017-2008, in points): 26; 21; 12; 13; 24; 11; 19; 2; 7; 22.  The bigger question is “Do the Packers need a top 10 defense with an all-world QB?”  What we do know is Rodgers hasn’t won without the 2^nd overall defense.  The ultimate question now, Can the Packers construct a Defense good enough to win while paying Aaron Rodgers?  If not, what’s the point?

Something to think about… in the meantime, us true nerds will love the NFL Draft combine and free agency in the coming months.

 

By kickoff Saturday night the Packers were playing meaningless football.  For all intents and purposes, the Packers know what they have in their young players, and it’s becoming more and more evident that Brett Hundley is either incapable of being an average starting quarterback in this league or that the game has passed Mike McCarthy by.  Aside from a questionable pass interference call, the Packers’ defense showed up to the challenge without many of their starters.  As referenced above, we know a few of the young players are good: Kenny Clark.  Actually one of his below average performances as he was pushed a couple times in the run game, but still made plenty of plays stuffing the run and generating a pass rush – he’s going to be fun to watch and a player the Packers should build around.

Review—the Packers actually outgained the Vikings 239 v 236 yards, but the interception in the red zone thrown by Hundley to a double-covered Kendricks was ultimately the deciding factor early in the contest.  The promising thing is that McCarthy actually calls a fairly balanced game when Hundley is behind center, and while there’s no way to figure out how many runs Rodgers checks out of, I’d still love to see a true west coast offense and use the arguably best run-blocking offensive line in the NFL and two newfound rushers (Williams and Jones) to set the tone of the game.  Just think about this….the Packers are able to outrush their opponents and can fall back on the arm of Aaron Rodgers to always be in 2^nd and 3^rd & short situations.  That’s a recipe for ball control, which will keep the defense off the field and can only help.  However, until McCarthy adjusts or there’s a new coach, it’s close to insanity to expect that to change – ultimately relying on #12 to win every game with his right arm and decision-making which isn’t the best plan for any player, Tom Brady included.

Preview – enter the 8-7 Detroit Lions, whom too have nothing to play for.  This is an opportunity to get young players like Michael Clark (#89) and Trevor Davis (#11) 50+ snaps to see what they have.  The Lions rank 13^th in yards, 8^th in points as for offense & 27^th/25^th on defense, respectively.  This could end up being a shootout or a one-sided affair with Matt Stafford loading up on some stats. Hopefully the Packers don’t play their key players as there’s literally no value to do so, and actually helps them in the big picture by losing this game.  Although it’ll be tough for any fan to root against the packers during the game; again even if it’s for the greater good J

Recap—again, whether the Packers decide to cut and move on from Randall Cobb and/or Jordy Nelson, we know what they’re capable of and after signing Davante Adams to a 4-year $58M deal, he’ll be the new #1 (if he wasn’t already) target entering 2018.  Center Corey Linsley too signed a contract extension Saturday afternoon, which means there will be 2 returning starters to the line next year; LT David Bakhtiari being the other.

Hoping for a loss for multiple reasons:

1. Maybe someone will be replaced aside from a special teams coach.
2. Better draft pick.
3. Team is fueled even more from being 7-9? (I’m really stretching here)

Stay tuned for the season recap next week and to begin talking draft prospects!

Packers 21
Lions 34

31-20: now hoping I’m right for the reasons listed above!