Review~ glad I missed on the meter that Rodgers somehow fell behind Cousins on the QB-level meter.  Cousins must be the worst “big game” QB ever.  Considering all of his “big games,” aside from 1, have come in the regular season, that’s telling.  Rodgers didn’t play all that well, he actually played somewhat terrible, but came up with enough throws and still built a lead when Cousins couldn’t fully capitalize on the 3 turnovers.

It was also refreshing to see the Packers continue to feed Aaron Jones after his lost fumble on the first 3^rd down of the game.  25 touches for 160 yards, that’s how you take and keep control of a game even when you’re not playing well.  Kudos to LaFleur and Rodgers for sticking with it.

Current Standing~ now the Packers are in a great spot, win and get a BYE.  Couple that with a Seahawks win over San Francisco tonight, and the Packers are the 1 seed in the NFC.  If Green Bay will continue to stick with the run/Aaron Jones, even when on the road in a big game in a dome (last week), that should give hope they’d do the same at home, which would be much easier for both the O and D to play well.

Preview~ enter the awful Detroit Lions.  The last time the Packers saw this team, they were 2-1-1, and both the tie was close (obviously) and their loss was a back and forth battle to a healthy Chiefs team.  They still have a bunch of guys that can “compete,” but that doesn’t necessarily translate into Wins.  Look for the Packers to take control of this game out of the shoot and lock up a BYE in the playoffs.

Packers 27
Lions 10

Season: 9-6
Overall: 52-31

A gift, thanks Arizona (and Brett Hundley???)  The Packers sit as the 2^nd seed in the NFC playoff picture (with a win).  They control their destiny for that 2 seed- should they win out, they can do no worse than the 2 seed.  Win out and have Seattle beat SF and the Packers are the 1 seed and fare much better vs any opponent in Lambeau than heading on the road, and/or not even having a BYE.

Preview~ win and win the division.  Winning the division is key, but far from the ultimate goal.  While a huge step in the right direction for a 1^st year head coach, be wary that doesn’t necessarily mean much (i.e. Nagy and the Bears did the same last year going 12-4).  While I think the Packers are a much better run organization than Chicago, it’s still worth mentioning…plus, it’s ok to have expectations of winning more than initial thoughts coming into the season, especially that the Packers have only secured a BYE in the postseason 5 times since Brett Favre entered Green Bay.  This could be the sixth, and in my previous blog, I showed the importance of earning a BYE…the last 6 seasons, the Super Bowl has only had representatives that have had a BYE.  1 seed, as you’d imagine, is even more indicative of getting to the Super Bowl.  Keep Winning.

While the graph shows Minnesota ranking better both offensively and defensively (by points), Green Bay has been getting it done with not turning it over and making their opponents drive the length of the field to score…which is Pettine’s “Bend but Don’t Break” motto.  The issue with metrics, while over the course of a season may help, in only 1 game one key mistake likely will determine the outcome—and the Packers are built for the offense not to have a single turnover.  It’s still tough not to think about the opening series in San Fran where Rodgers fumbled and essentially changed the entire game.  The Packers are behind the 8-ball this game, with Minnesota playing well and having quite a bit of talent in the right areas, while being well-balanced.

If the Packers can equalize them enough to bring this to a Rodgers v Cousins game, that should be enough considering Captain Average (err Kirk) sucks in primetime games especially vs. “Good” teams.  Then again, if Rodgers can’t outperform Kirk…

Win and 12-3, heading into Detroit with a boat load of momentum with the ability to lock up the 2 seed, and potentially home field advantage, would be quite the accomplishment for a rookie head coach—then I’d say “don’t waste the opportunity.”  Lose, and well…it’s still a must-win in Detroit for the division, but then likely hosting San Fran or Seattle in the wild card round with the right to travel to New Orleans…yikes…

Packers 24
Vikings 31

Season: 9-5
Overall: 52-30

Review~ an ugly win, however good teams win ugly from time to time.  How important is winning “pretty” vs. teams one “should’ve have an issue?”

1. Defense- locked down until it was essentially over.
2. Offense- began fast, which is a huge improvement from last year, but needs to finish more consistently.
3. Special Teams- may be fixed, or at least improved enough to not be a liability.

As stated last week, no matter what the Packers did, aside from losing- this was a no-win scenario.  Everything is leading up to these final 3 games, all divisional opponents- and each carrying a huge component.

This week’s component?  Knocking the Bears from the postseason—and possibly clinching a playoff berth of their own.  If the Packers win, the Bears are out of the playoffs. A 7-loss team cannot make the playoffs in the NFC, unless it’s the Vikings or Rams.

The Packers can clinch if they best the Bears and the Rams lose.  In order to win the division, the Packers must win any 2 of the remaining 3 games on their schedule.  If the Packers win out, they’re guaranteed at least the 2 seed.  They could get some major help, and wind up as the 1 seed, but that’d be tough to count on.  Let’s focus on beating the Bears…

Preview~ end the Bears’ season.  Chicago has been riding high, winning 4 of their last 5.  They’re back in the playoff hunt, still essentially needing to win out, but this is another major opportunity for Green Bay to knock them off, and build a bunch of confidence (especially on offense) vs. a very good defense.

The Packers are the better team, completely shut down the Bears in their week 1 meeting to open the NFL’s 100^th season, and it should be more of the same.  Scoring 24 points at home, vs. any defense shouldn’t be too big of an ask, but with the offense stalling for 2+ consecutive quarters more often than not, vs. bad defenses…well…I’m not too optimistic.

This is the Bears’ Super Bowl and you’ll get their best shot…

Bears 20
Packers 24

Season: 8-5
Overall: 51-30

Review~ the game vs. the Giants went the way it was supposed to.  However, not without a bit of a struggle to pull away until late.  However, good teams do what they’re supposed to, and close out the game vs. an inferior opponent.  Still, getting the 3 turnovers that Daniel Jones will typically give you, the Packers still show they’re capable of beating bad teams and it’s very tough to imagine beating a good team, which they’d ultimately have to do once or twice in the playoffs if they plan on actually winning the Super Bowl.

Another frustrating item with this team is it seems the defense, as a whole, isn’t much better than the last few years’.  The defense is ranked 14^th in scoring, giving up an average of 21.3 points/game.  Another indicator of overall team play is the point differential.  I’ve found myself in many disagreements, especially in baseball, about a team’s true strength determined by point differential.  The Packers are 9-3, but only have a +34 differential, which ranks them 11^th in the NFL.  To give some insight, here’s a listing/ranking of where the Super Bowl winners from the past 10 seasons have ranked:

As you can see, four of the past 10 winners have ranked 1^st, and two have ranked 2^nd.  A clear indication that point differential is telling in the sense of a true “chance of winning,” couple that with scoring defensive rank and one might be able to predict the winner heading into the playoffs.  A lot of these coincide, ala high point differential means a lot of wins, which equals home field advantage, which means they’re likely to get to the Super Bowl and are just a solid team.

Preview~ another week, and another No-Win scenario for the Packers.  To paraphrase Mayor Larry Vaughn (from Jaws) Blow the doors off Washington, and no one bats an eye.  Struggle or lose?  Well, then you have panic on your hands leading into Christmas.

The Redskins seems to be in full rebuild- owner’s fault- yet are somehow not eliminated from playoff (division) contention at 3-9 due to the NFC East being terrible.  As you can see on the chart below, the Redskins have the worst offense in the entire NFL, a rookie QB that makes plenty of mistakes, and holes all over the rest of their roster.

The Packers shouldn’t have any trouble in this one, but then again, it’s the Packers and they typically lose a game they have no business losing…hopefully that’s out of the way from the Charger game.

Redskins 14
Packers 38

Season: 7-5
Overall: 50-30

Review~ what an absolute ass-kicking.  While I don’t think San Francisco is THAT good, it may be more telling that the Packers may not be as good as their record suggests…albeit, they’re still 8-3 and destined for the 3^rd, 5^th, or 6^th seed in the NFC playoffs.  Should Green Bay win out, they’ll likely get the 2 seed, possibly the 1, but that would be assuming they’d win in Minnesota, which they’ve yet to do since opening that new stadium.  Also assuming Seattle and San Francisco would lose twice more (SF would have to lose thrice more).

What was once considered the Packers’ strength; offensive line…was once again relegated to severe weakness.  Then again, they were dominated in every phase of the game.  The off-putting part of this is Green Bay had 2 weeks to prepare for the biggest game in 3 years and could not have played worse.  The defense somewhat kept them in the game for about 1.5 quarters, but all of the 3 and outs were too much to overcome and the D gave away eventually.  Credit to San Francisco for being well-prepared and kept their foot down to blast the Packers back to an average to maybe above-avg. team.  The next test for Green Bay won’t come until week 16 in Minneapolis, where they’ll likely drop that game too.

Current Standing~ The Packers have an uphill battle (and need some help) to not only get the 1 seed, but just to get a first round BYE.  That’s how big that game was last Sunday.  Instead of being the 1 seed, the Packers find themselves as the 3 seed and a must-win at Minnesota to just keep that.

As it sits right now here’s the current playoff standings:

1 San Francisco 10-1
2 New Orleans 10-2
—————————————
3 Green Bay 8-3
4 Dallas 6-6
5 Seattle 9-2
6 Minnesota 8-3

There’s a monumental matchup next week when the 49ers travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints. The winner will be in the driver’s seat for the 1^st seed, until the 9ers travel again to Seattle, in week 17 for a rematch with the Seahawks—whom delivered SF’s only loss.

All in all, SF seems like the class of the NFC along with Seattle and possibly New Orleans.  The Packers have a chance to solidify themselves up there if they were to win out and garner a BYE.  San Fran likely has 2 losses coming, but that would mean Seattle needs to find a way to lose 2 more too, assuming the Packers win out- otherwise there’s no hope for the 1 seed.  However, should the Packers win out (finish 13-3), that would be an incredible 1^st season for a rookie Head Coach, and would give the Packers an inside track to the NFC title game.  And who knows, if Rodgers and LaFleur forget Adams is on the field, it may not matter because the offense was ROLLING when #12 had no legit weapons, aside from his running back, Aaron Jones.

Preview~ enter a perfect remedy, the New York Giants.  The Giants are arguably the 2^nd or 3^rd worst team in the NFL.  The Giants rank 30^th in turnover differential with -11 and their defense isn’t any better, ranking 29^th in points given up: 28.0/game.  The Packers can key on sensational running back, Saquan Barkley (#26) and force rookie QB Daniel Jones (#6) into beating them, which there should be no way in that happening.

After getting a couple of interceptions and/or strip sacks, the Packers should punch in and capitalize on short fields for much of the day and hang at least 31 on this team.  All gearing up for another easy test against the other crap team from the NFC East, the Washington Redskins.

Packers 34
Giants 17

Season: 6-5
Overall: 49-30

Current Standing—the Packers find themselves tied for the 2^nd best record in the NFC, however hold the tiebreaker over New Orleans (currently) with a better record vs. NFC opponents.  Again, the 49ers have a daunting schedule coming up, beginning on Sunday Night vs. Green Bay.  While you shouldn’t look ahead (fans can do whatever), you can bank on San Fran dropping at least another game or two- or 3- before the year finishes out.  Winning this game would pit you vs. New Orleans and Minnesota for a 1 seed…and if you can’t beat Kirk Cousins in a Primetime game and are a good opponent, you’re not a real contender.

Preview—are the San Francisco 49ers for real?  So far, they certainly seem so, however they can only play who they play, and have done a really nice job putting themselves in this position.  It does seem that both teams could be considered playing with “House Money.”  However, as a Packers fan this is an opportunity to win a Super Bowl without having to have a feeling of “luck” or “destiny” be tagged to them.

The rankings in the chart below are up-to-date prior to the kickoff from the Thu night game of Ind v. Hou.  The Packers are the epitome of a “Bend but Don’t Break” team/defense, as the rankings suggest when compared to their 8-2 record.  Adversely, San Francisco’s rankings fit their 9-1 record.  When you look at strength of schedule played so far, the Packers have played the 9^th toughest schedule vs. San Frank playing the 3^rd easiest.  I believe there’s something to be said for all of that.  Does this mean the 49ers aren’t as good as their record?  Probably, but it will be proven out come Sunday night.

The matchup I typically look at will be the OL vs. DL when both teams have the ball.  The 9ers possess a solid DL headlined by rookie standout, Nick Bosa, brother of Joey Bosa who gave Bulaga all sorts of fits in the Packers’ 2^nd loss of the season in Los Angeles.

Keep an eye on the line surge (if the line of scrimmage moves forward or backward, either way) and overall turnover battle.  I thought the Packers would lose a close game for the last 2 weeks, but may have talked myself into picking them.

Packers 27
49ers 20

Season: 6-4
Overall: 49-29

The Packers enter their week 11 bye in the driver’s seat for the 1 seed in the NFC.  Meaning Green Bay controls their own destiny for home-field advantage, which is a great indicator of whom represents each conference in the Super Bowl.  The importance of earning, not only a bye but, home field advantage is HUGE!

Green Bay currently is tied for 3^rd best record in the NFL at 8-2.  The only teams ahead are New England and San Francisco, both at 8-1, and each losing their last time out.

• Side note—both have been critiqued a bit on whether they’ve actually played “tough competition” so far. Well, we do know that San Fran has their hands full in their remaining 7 games, after they get a decent opponent in Arizona, they welcome another tough opponent in the Packers to prime-time and the Packers will be coming off a bye.

Over the last 15 seasons (30 teams to make the Super Bowl) only 7 teams have made the Super Bowl with 6 of those 7 teams winning the Super Bowl.  What does this mean?  Essentially 77% of the participants of the Super Bowl either had a 1 or 2 seed.  What’s even more telling, is the 1 seed made the Super Bowl 53% of the time, winning 20% of the time.  So just by pure math, over the last 15 years, earning a 1 seed gives you a 1/5 chance of winning the Super Bowl, which isn’t bad considering 12 teams make it—weighing the odds in your favor.

Lastly- the importance of the 1 seed, especially of recent, since 2013 only teams with a bye have made the Super Bowl and all but 3 of those teams (12 teams total) have been 1 seeds.  The nice thing about the Packers potentially getting home field is their finally built (both with players and coaches) to win in the cold.  When Davante Adams went out, the Packers (mainly Rodgers) seemed to follow a true West Coast offense with short passes and a run game to control the clock, which when he’s in rhythm is damn near impossible to stop, regardless of his receiving corps…evidenced by that 4 game stretch where they were blowing teams out and getting off to fast starts.

Rooting interest this weekend without Packer football????  Here’s who WE want to win to help the Packers, again, if the Packers win out none of these matter much, but should Green Bay stumble along the road, these would help.

• Falcons > Panthers
• Lions > Cowboys
• Broncos > Vikings
• Buccaneers > Saints
• Cardinals > 49ers
• Patriots > Eagles

There’s losing/getting beat, then there’s what the Packers did—not show up.  Without even looking at body-language, just the effort and execution (or lack thereof) were very apparent and the Chargers Beat They Ass.  This is what happens when you Roll The Helmets Out vs. a very talented and hungry team, on the road.  Ultimately this falls on the Head Coach, and it’s almost expected to happen with a new coach, but it doesn’t make it any less frustrating.

I figured the Packers would have a letdown, but didn’t think it was coming in this game and didn’t think it would be this drastic.  Hopefully this is a wake-up call, but it doesn’t get any easier as in the next 3 weeks (2 games) are legitimate teams with huge ramifications on playoff seeding.  So, to take away, the “positives” from this game are:

1. If you’re going to lose, might as well be a road game vs. an AFC opponent (tiebreakers don’t come into play).
2. With as low an effort (none) as Green Bay showed, they did not commit a turnover at all.

Review—Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram were able to get to Rodgers, sometimes without even getting touched by either Bakhtiari or Bulaga.  The odd thing is the tackle combo (considered the best in the NFL) has been just awesome all year and completely didn’t show up this game.  They’re not the only ones at fault, but they had the worst game of anyone else.

The positives?  There weren’t any turnovers and usually everyone has a “clunker.”  However, it’s rare that good teams have one this bad, but it does happen…i.e. the Patriots on Sunday Night Football in Baltimore.

Preview—moving on…a rematch of the 1996 NFC Championship game: Carolina Panthers.

Carolina is good.  They’re just a solid team.  They possess every bit as much talent as the LA Chargers, but it’s in different spots.  Their top two players are in solid spots: HB #22 Christian McCaffrey; MLB #59 Luke Kuechly.  Those two are certifiable studs and that doesn’t bode well since the Packers struggle vs. the rush.  In fact, looking at the table above, the Packers don’t have really any advantages yet they’re favored by 5.   However, the Panthers don’t seem to be a real contender, and the Packers need to prove that out come Sunday.

1. The Panthers rank 1^st in the NFL with 34 sacks and 4^th in opponent QB rating: 77.5. The positives are the Packers rank 14^th in sacks given up (20), and 7^th in QB rating with 104.4.  Couple that with playing at home, in an ideal fall weather, coming off an embarrassment and in a damn near must-win game (that is if you have Super Bowl aspirations), it’s the Packers’ game to lose.
2. Per usual, this game will come down to 2 things, QB-play and turnovers. I’ll throw in a 3^rd, O-line play.  Bakhtiari and Bulaga need to step their game back up to the standard they’ve set this year vs. a formidable front 7: McCoy; Poe; Butler; Addison; Thompson; Kuechly; Irvin.  Those guys can’t take over like the Bosa/Ingram combo did last week.  So running the ball is imperative!
   1. The Panthers were able to give QB Kyle Allen a clean pocket vs. Tennessee, last week, and he proved to be very accurate. Let’s see what the Smith Bros. can drum up in terms of consistent pressure.
3. The Panthers’ Kicker, Joey Slye, had some issues last week in perfect conditions. He missed a big extra point (to increase the lead to 17, a 3-score game), and missed a 49-yard FG.  The Packers should have a distinct advantage in the kicking game, considering Green Bay has 2 of the best (Crosby and Scott) and are used to kicking in Lambeau which is a tricky wind stadium.

Huge Game—the only opponents remaining on the schedule reside in the NFC.  Three of those teams have winning records, and it all begins with Carolina.  Hopefully the Packers aren’t looking ahead to the BYE or to the following week @ San Francisco.  Take care of business at home, and get rested at 8-2 heading into the Bye.  After that, the season will really be in Ramp Up time, and really start to get fun.  Lose?  Then it’s another Just get in the playoffs and see what happens type season…we know how that all works.

Panthers 28
Packers 31

Season: 5-4
Overall: 48-29

What should be most-alarming about the game is a backup QB along with a Chiefs team missing 5 other starters (their MVP QB and top 2 pass-rushers) had the lead at halftime and gave the Packers everything they could handle.  It seemed the patience of Mike Pettine paid off and it resulted in another Packers win.

At least to me, Pettine seemed to play the game of Your QB has to outplay mine.  Neither QB turned the ball over, however Rodgers did get away with 2 throws that very easily should’ve been intercepted—conversely, he made up for those 2 bad throws with 2 of some of his best throws…ever.  Both throws came on 3^rd down, and each resulted in the drive ending in a Touchdown.  Rodgers won that game, again.  He made the throws when they mattered, even to close out the game on 3^rd and 5, to Aaron Jones.

My concern is with the potential return of Davante Adams, Rodgers and the offense may key on him vs. keeping the balance which they’ve showed since his exit.  LaFleur and Hackett have done a great job showcasing the talent of Aaron Jones, as he’s been super productive and has been borderline unstoppable.  The optimist in me thinks that with the insertion of Adams, the offense will get another boost from a dynamic playmaker, thrive, and be even more difficult to get off the field.

Tom Silverstein wrote a great article this week, about how the Packers’ offense (LaFleur and Rodgers) has hit strides w/o the presence of Adams.  My thinking is that it forced the QB to trust other players and forced the other players to produce or get cut (i.e. Shepherd).

Review—the Packers won, yet again, playing far from their best.  This could be looked at two different ways: A. they found a way to win when not playing well – OR – B. they didn’t play their best, again.  Why not be optimistic here?  No team ever plays a (or near) perfect game. The Packers keep finding ways to close out games.  This was a team closeout win.  The defense forced a punt, with the lead and 5+ minutes left.  The offense never relinquished control…love it.  Always love the Victory formation, best formation in football.

Current Status—at the midway point of the season the Packers find themselves at 7-1, which is somehow good enough for only the 3 seed in the NFC playoff picture.  Yes, it’s not too early to begin looking at the playoff picture as gaining as many home playoff games is essential to getting to the Super Bowl.  How has Green Bay gotten here?

After Davante Adams went down in week 4 (Thu vs. Philadelphia) with turf toe, the Packers struggled to find an offensive threat for the remainder of that game.  However, since then, the Packers have gone 4-0 averaging 32.5 points/game over that stretch.  Aaron Jones has been woken and has been the primary target of the offense avg.: 19.25 touches; 138 yards; 1.75 TDs over that same span.  Ideally the Packers getting Davante back will only add to the dynamic vs. reverting back to forcing him to get the ball.  Either way, Adams isn’t a Diva, or as long as Rodgers keeps running the offense as efficiently as he’s done over the last 4 weeks, this team is going to give their opponents fits.  Tom Silverstein wrote a great article explaining this in great detail.

Preview—don’t let the Chargers’ 3-5 record fool you, this team is loaded with talent and are a season removed from being 12-4, tied for the best record in the AFC, but lost out to KC for the division (and 1 seed) based on tiebreakers.  They eventually fell in New England in the playoffs, but this team has had talent up and down the roster since the days of Drew Brees and LaDainian Tomlinson, to now.  It’s no different.  They have pass catchers that can kill: WR Keenan Allen #13, Mike Williams #81, and Hunter Henry #86, and out of the backfield is Austin Ekeler #30.  On defense they have the older Bosa (Joey Bosa #97) whom already has 7 sacks and a forced fumble.  The guy is a problem, on the other side of the D is Melvin Ingram #54, whose recent return from injury has further helped.

While I was way off on the score last week, I still figured it’d be a tough game, this seems no different.  Again, per usual, this should come down to the QB-play, and the Packers have the better one.  Lastly, this might be a home game for Green Bay- should be 75%+ Packer fans in the stands, even more than the Rams game last year.

Packers 27
Chargers 24

Season: 5-3
Overall: 48-28

Review~ an overall solid performance from the offense.  The defense created the 1 huge (2 total) turnover(s) at the right time and the offense capitalized on it, and turned it into a 2-for-1 (scoring right before half then getting the ball after half).  Rodgers played about as well as we’ve seen him play.  Not just the stat-line, but he kept the offense in rhythm, both in-and-out of the huddle, but after the snap too.  A few plays he held the ball when Oakland dropped into coverage, but managed to get a few huge plays from that as well.  Hopefully that doesn’t become the norm again, but either way, LaFleur called a brilliant game and the QB executed it about as well as you could have.

The defense did just enough, but the offense really suffocated the Raiders’ offense and put all the pressure on Carr to hang 5+ TDs, which he simply isn’t going to do.  The Raiders “outgained” the Packers by 3 yards with 484 total yards, and looking on a stat line, it was essentially an even game.  The difference being the Raiders’ 2 turnovers took 14 points off the board for them and the Packers converted those turnovers to 14 points of their own.  That momentum is too much to overcome, especially if you’re an inferior opponent.

Preview~ what normally is the toughest place to play, Kansas City, likely (hopefully) won’t be that tonight.  The Chiefs (my Super Bowl Champion pick) are going to be without QB Patrick Mahomes (reigning MVP), DT Chris Jones (solid player), CB Kendall Fuller (solid player), LG Andrew Wylie (starter), and DE Frank Clark (leading pass rusher).  Anti-Packer fans will say the Packers are getting lucky for the 3^rd consecutive week (refs vs Detroit, fumble ruling vs Oakland, and now injuries at Kansas City), but knowledgeable Packer fans know this is just another example of something evening out over the past decade + of stuff that Green Bay has endured.

It’s tough to really say what type of opponent the Chiefs will be with, possibly, their top 4 players missing, but they’ll still have their top 3 pass catchers playing in TE Travis Kelce, WR Tyreek Hill, and WR Sammy Watkins.  Those 3 could pose a problem, if Matt Moore can get some time to throw and make some good throws, so again it’s a huge opportunity for the defense to take control of this game and generate some pass rush, and not allow the screens and draws to gash them too bad.

Look for the Packers’ QB to outplay the Chiefs’ QB, especially because the Chiefs defense can’t seem to stop anyone, and since they’re going to be missing their top 3 defenders (Jones, Ford, and Fuller) look for Rodgers to be very productive again.

Packers 31
Chiefs 13

Season: 4-3
Overall: 47-28