Author: nzurich9

Father. Husband. Commercial Broker. Amateur Golfer. I also really love football.

Mining for the Gold Zone

Posted on by nzurich9

Review: Packers 20; Bears 19

First tings first, Green Bay came out with the win. The Box Score shows that Chicago played the better game, however the difference is Green Bay scored 3 touchdowns to Chicago’s two. Scoring touchdowns, and limiting touchdowns, are paramount in football. Aside from that, Chicago won in total yards, turnovers, and time of possession.  

The biggest takeaways from the game, Quay Walker needs to stop thinking and just play. There were countless snaps where he was either out of position or just didn’t attack. Especially on one of the 4th down conversions by Chicago where he had QB Caleb Williams dead-to-rights and just played “spy” allowing Caleb to convert the 4th down to a check down. That could’ve swung the complete momentum of the game and led to a comfortable win instead of what transpired.

Good Sign—the Packers cleaned up the penalties by only committing 3, and one of those wasn’t a penalty (15-yard personal foul, late hit) on Xavier McKinney. That kept Green Bay ahead of the sticks (or on schedule in terms of down and distance), and makes it easier to keep drives alive on offense as well as helps the defense get off the field.

Jordan Love finally looked 100% healthy, and it showed in terms of production against Chicago. Aside from the overthrow to Kraft that led to the interception, Love was on especially in clutch situations…he finished the game: 13/17; 261 yards; 1 TD; 1 INT; 113.0 Rating. He’s getting set to pop the top and hit stride as he did in the 2nd half of last season.

LB Brenton Cox (#57) sacks Bears’ QB Caleb Williams. (photo credit: Evan Siegel; packers.com)

To put a bow on it, with the trade of Preston Smith to Pittsburgh, the unproven guys were going to get additional reps and Brenton Cox, Jr. decided to make an immediate impact. Cox, a very athletic linebacker from the University of Florida, had a sack and an additional tackle for loss (TFL) against the Bears and that aggression helps the defense cause negative plays and turnovers.

Preview: (5-5) San Francisco 49ers @ (7-3) Green Bay Packers

Current Standings—Green Bay sits as the 6th seed in the NFC playoff picture while San Francisco is currently on the outside looking in as the 10th seed. The 49ers are 2 games behind the last seeded Washington Commanders and desperately need this win to keep them alive for postseason play. Keeping the 9ers out of the playoffs would be a huge advantage for Green Bay’s path to the Super Bowl – not only due to getting the monkey off their back, but San Fran is uber talented and experienced as they’ve been the class of the NFC for the past 5+ seasons.

Matchup Preview

On paper these teams are about as evenly matched as can be. The 9ers have found ways to lose close games while Green Bay has done quite well in that department. While scoring points and keeping point off the board from your opponents is king, San Fran is top-10 in each yardage category on both sides of the ball. That generally displays a team’s true production…however, the ability to score and win tight games shows the ability to come through in clutch situations, as Green Bay has done on far more occasions.

The red zone efficiency (TDs scored divided by the number of red zone trips) for each of these teams leaves quite a bit to be desired. San Francisco ranks 26th with a 48.78% red zone efficiency while Green Bay is a spot behind them at 27th (48.72%). Green Bay can improve this department is:

  1. Jordan Love’s health (which seems to be 100%)
  2. Keep feeding Josh Jacobs the ball

Ryan Wood, of jsonline.com, wrote a good article elaborating on this and why it’ll help the Packers convert more of their red zone trips into touchdowns vs. field goals. This past week at Soldier Field the Packers converted 3 of their 5 red zone trips into touchdowns. That easily could’ve been 4-of-5 had they kept handing the ball off to Jacobs. Instead, they stalled out and ended up going for it on a 4th & Goal from the 6 in the 4th quarter resulting in Love being denied at the goal line. The other failure was on Love’s overthrow to Kraft ending in his 11th interception of the season. Even settling for field goals (adding 6 points to the scoreboard) would’ve changed the dynamic of this game. Hell, had one of those drives resulted in a TD and the other a FG, that’s an additional 10 points and likely gets towards the “comfortable win” category for this game.

Stepping Up?

Rashan Gary (#52) sacks Caleb Williams late in the 4th quarter. (photo credit: Evan Siegel; packers.com)

It’s been covered and talked at nauseum about the lack of pressure and pass rush from the Packers this season. Without those takeaways, it almost reared its ugly head last week. However, Green Bay got 3 sacks against Chicago and 2 were on consecutive plays with almost a 3rd that would’ve ended the game without the field goal block. Green Bay will need this type of constant pass rush if they want to succeed in the playoffs against solid offensive lines. Rashan Gary is the focal point, and should be since he’s the high-profile (and highly paid) pass rusher on this team. We need Gary to produce like he did in that 2021 Divisional Round playoff game vs. San Francisco for the remainder of the season, as well as sophomore Lukas Van Ness to begin making plays and getting a constant push considering Kenny Clark is getting all the attention on the interior of the lines he sees.

Banged Up?

Both of these squads come into this Week 12 match up pretty banged up. However, San Francisco is at risk for missing far more quality starters than Green Bay. Superstar pass rusher, Nick Bosa, might miss this game (or won’t be close to 100% should he play) along with all-world LT Trent Williams. Brock Purdy is making headlines by shutting down practice on Thursday with right (throwing) shoulder soreness, which could put them in a precarious situation.

Green Bay will be without standout corner Jaire Alexander for the foreseeable future with a torn PCL, sustained against Jacksonville that kept him out of the Detroit game and only played 10 snaps in Chicago 2 weeks later. Again, the Packers’ pass rush must step up to help the below-average cover corners we now have.

What to Watch For?

San Francisco is missing, quite possibly, their 2 most important players: QB Brock Purdy; DE Nick Bosa. Purdy is about as safe and efficient a QB as there is in this league, and Bosa generates a pass rush as consistently as any pass rusher. By not having either of those guys, the Packers should be able to focus their attention on Christian McCaffrey and the short-passing game. Green Bay will be without their two best defenders, Jaire Alexander and Edgerrin Coopers. Look for LB Eric Wilson to make an impact, but guarding TE George Kittle (which is always a tough task) will be paramount along with winning the line of scrimmage.

Prediction Time

Should Purdy play as well as Nick Bosa, this is a desperate/hungry 9ers team that is almost in a must-win scenario coupled with a very clever Head Coach…it may be tight. Then again, Jordan Love may put one together and boat race these guys. Either way, I don’t see a scenario where Green Bay has a complete stinker of a game and gets handled.

Should Green Bay win the turnover battle and time of possession, there’s a chance this game could get out of hand for San Fran, which would be much-needed for Green Bay to have a “comfortable victory.” Look for Jordan Love to get into a rhythm early and often to hopefully free up some passing lanes which would allow for the run game to carry them through. The X-factor is always MLB Fred Warner, who many believe is the best Middle Linebacker in football. He could change a game, but if he has to guard against an effective pass AND run game, he’ll be nullified and Green Bay should be able to dictate what they do with the ball. Remember, converting Red Zone trips to touchdowns instead of Field Goals and turnovers is what separates the Very Good teams from the Great Teams.

Season: 8-2
Overall: 100-68

Hunting Season

Posted on by nzurich9

In the latest installment of the oldest rivalry in the NFL, Green Bay travels to Soldier Field in search of their first divisional win of the season. The Packers lead the all-time series between these two rivals, 107-95-6, winning the last 10 matchups. The Bears have lost three straight games since starting the season 4-2 while Green Bay is coming off their bye week having dropped a sloppily-played game to Detroit in Week 9. Should Green Bay want to contend for the division title and perhaps an outside shot at the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs, they’ll likely have to win the rest of their remaining games assuming Detroit will drop another two games outside of their next matchup in Week 14 on Thursday Night Football. This begins the long stretch towards The Tournament to contend for the Lombardi Trophy, and hopefully the Packers will emulate their strong 2nd half of the season from a year ago and start strong coming off the bye.

Matchup

Based on the rankings above, it’s apparent where Green Bay has the advantage…the run game. Chicago is 24th in the NFL in rush offense, as well as 24th in the league in rush defense. Those are some of Green Bay’s strong suits. The Packers are 3rd in rush offense in the NFL and 10th in defending the run, and have improved over the last few weeks in that department. Where Green Bay has struggled, as I wrote last week, is in securing the football and taking it away. The Packers need to get back to their way of taking the ball away and converting those to touchdowns. They do that, and they’re back to one of, if not the, strongest teams in the NFL. Chicago has done a solid job in each of those categories ranking T-7th in takeaways and 6th in giving it away. Should Chicago want to get back on track and upset Green Bay, they’ll likely have to lead the turnover department, as well as time of possession and penalties (and yardage) assessed. The gameplan seems obvious for the Packers – run the ball, early and often!

Bye Did Some Good?

The Packers got very healthy while off on their bye week, essentially getting everyone back other than TE Luke Musgrave. They did however, see a setback in rookie running back Marshawn Lloyd, who was cleared to practice and anticipated to play before suffering appendicitis on Friday at practice (a non-football injury).  The other notables returning to the field were stud corner Jaire Alexander, rookie sensation Evan Williams, and reliable snapper at center, Josh Myers. These additions alone may have been the difference in losing to Detroit 2 weeks ago, so to get them back is a huge step in the right direction for this team. Availability is the most important talent and can’t be understated it’s importance in December and January.

WR #13 Dontayvion Wicks drops a pass vs. Detroit at Lambeau Field on Nov. 3, 2024. (photo credit: Acme Packing Company).

Getting Dontayvion Wicks rolling again is essential for the Packers, and this week vs. a solid Chicago pass defense is as good a time as any. Wicks has shown to be one of the best receivers in the NFL in route-running by being able to get open as much as any player along with creating the greatest separation from his cover guy throughout the entire NFL. Getting him back in rhythm with Jordan Love will help each guy, not only their stats, but with putting games out of reach as they were able to do so in a few games late in the season in 2023. Tom Silverstein of jsonline.com had a solid article talking about the relationship between Love and Wicks and how they can regain their connection from 2023.

Who Are the Bears?

They’re still a poorly run organization, from the top down. It was clear from the onset of this offseason, at least to me, that this team didn’t really improve from last season. The defense essentially was kept the same, and while it’s “good” there are still some holes and the offense… As for the offense, the fan base (as always) talks as if they’re the Patriots with prime Tom Brady at the helm, still has glaring issues. Mainly the offensive line, which is still one of the worst in the NFL and it’s rearing its ugly head these last few weeks. During their 3-game losing streak, Chicago has given up 18 sacks (6/game) for 122 yards, has run 189 plays for only 690 yards (230 yards/game) and scored a combined 27 points (9 points/game). That’s abysmal, even for a “bad offense.”

While many say “Chicago is ruining Caleb Williams,” is there a chance he’s just not that good? Sure he won a Heisman Trophy and put up big numbers in college, but this is the NFL and collegiate production doesn’t necessarily translate to the man’s league. There are 3 quarterbacks I’d like to throw in the mix, with one of them being Caleb and let’s see if you can find the difference between them….

  • QB 1: 64%; 212.2 yards; 1.28TD; 0.74INT; 87.2RAT
  • QB 2: 60.3%; 175.6 yards; 1.05TD; 0.79INT; 82.8RAT
  • QB 3: 60.5%; 198.3 yards; 1.00TD; 0.56INT; 81.0RAT

Que The Office meme picture of Pam saying “They’re the same picture.” In order, these quarterbacks are Mitch Trubisky, Justin Fields, and Caleb Williams. Now before you say, “Yes, but once Mitch and Fields left, they improved!” Not really, since leaving here are the stats of each QB:

  • Mitch: 64.4%; 241.5 yards; 1.0TD; 1.25INT; 77.8RAT – avg. over 8 starts
  • Fields: 66.3%; 184.3 yards; 0.83TD; 0.17INT; 93.9RAT – avg. over 6 starts

While Fields has improved his numbers, those games were managed in a method of backup QB play, much like the Packers with Malik Willis. Ball control and stifling defense, for Pittsburgh. That’s essentially what these QBs are and seem to be. Caleb may improve (very likely given he’s a rookie with “generational talent), but there were a few people that thought he’s already at his ceiling…

Chicago has fired their Offensive Coordinator, Shane Waldron, after the latest atrocity Chicago refuses to fix the actual problem and slaps a Band-Aid on the open wound that requires major surgery…this could give the Bears a short-term boost, and put them in a spot that may give some false hope. While I could go down the path of Chicago beating Green Bay this week and winning a couple of more games for the remainder of the season is a GOOD thing for the Packers, I won’t as Chicago is likely to screw up the next 2-3 years anyway.

Prediction

Season: 7-2
Overall: 99-68

Byeing Time

Posted on by nzurich9

After re-watching the game, very apparent things become very transparent what will hold the Green Bay Packers back from coasting to a Super Bowl victory; the Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay was the better team in almost every facet of the game against Detroit (the league’s best team in my opinion), aside from execution – which is the most important. The massive number of mistakes are impossible to ignore:

  • Pick-6 (led to 7 points for Detroit)
  • 3 poor snaps (taking at least 3 points off the board for Green Bay)
  • 6 drops (two on crucial 3rd downs and another in the end zone, costing Green Bay at least 10 points)
  • Missed Field Goal, obviously wiping 3 points off the board for the Packers
  • Penalties – potentially wiping 7+ points off the board

Total all of those mistakes together and that’s a 30-point differential. Easy to play the what if game, but that directly turns a 10-point loss into a 20-point win. The Packers had no issue moving the ball up and down the field, totaling 411 yards to Detroit’s 261. The Packers had 7 drives end inside Detroit’s 40-yard line, resulting in only 14 points. Even if you kick field goals that’s 21 points and is a much different game just with that outcome.

Who Played Well?

Jordan Love drops unloads a pass vs. the Detroit Lions in Week 9 at Lambeau Field. (photo credit: Emma Pravecek; packers.com).

I’d argue Jordan Love looked extremely good, given the weather conditions, for a majority of the game. There were 2 poor throws (one poor decision, the other a straight miss) throughout the entire game. The pick-6 to Kirby Joesph was more of a good play by Joseph than it was a poor play by Love. Had the OL kept their blocks, they had a deep-crossing route wide open (Jayden Reed) for a 30+-yard gain, but tried to check down to Josh Jacobs due to the pressure and inability to escape. Aside from that, Love put the ball on the money throughout the game, and even if the Packers had just 2 or 3 drops, the results likely would’ve been much different. This bye week comes at a great time for Green Bay in hopes to clean up a lot of the pre-snap penalties and to get healthy, mainly Jordan Love’s groin/knee and Jaire Alexander’s hamstring.

Current Standings

As it stands now, the Packers are 3rd in their division, trailing behind Detroit and Minnesota – with Green Bay dropping each game against those rivals, at home nonetheless. The Packers will come out of the bye (hopefully) ready to take on the Bears at Soldier Field, with likely the #1 FOX crew calling the game. It begins the most important stretch of games for the Packers on the season. Currently holding the final playoff spot in the NFC (7th) with an opportunity to still catch Detroit should some things fall their way, Green Bay can only worry about improving upon themselves and stringing together consistent football for the remainder of the season.

Moving Forward

Mentioned above, the Packers have 8 remaining games, four of which will come against division opponents. Should Green Bay strive to win their division, let alone contend for the highly-coveted #1 seed in the NFC, they’ll likely have to finish the season 7-1 (very realistic) against similarly hungry teams remaining on their schedule. All of these are very winnable games, but the Bears will give their best shot (or at least their fans will), San Francisco is likely getting Christian McCaffery back, the Dolphins are now healthy and rolling, Seattle is vying to win their division, and the Vikings still have resemblance of a horseshoe stuck up their ass. It’ll be tough, but Green Bay is likely to be favored in all but 1 of their remaining games.

Should Green Bay finish 7-1, that would put them at 13-4, and if one of those wins comes against the Lions, or if the lone loss comes against Miami, that actually puts them in great shape to gain the #1 seed, however, that would mean Detroit has to drop 3-4 more games on their schedule, again, a big ask.

Trade Deadline

Newly acquired DE/EDGE, Preston Smith, practices for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The NFL trade deadline has come and gone, and while many fans wanted Green Bay to make a move, a major one, they chose not to. The Packers decided to move on from DE/Edge Rusher Preston Smith, who wanted to be traded as he wasn’t a fan of the new defense. Green Bay moving on from Smith frees up Lukas Van Ness, Kingsley Enagbare, and Arron Mosby to garner more snaps, and hopefully that generates a more consistent pass rush. We’ll see.

Again, there’s a lot to clean up, but even if Green Bay limits the drops and pre-snap penalties, they’re a favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy come February.

Keep in mind, this team is still the youngest in the league, and with that, you get mistakes…the good news, as the youngest team the liklihood

Keep in mind, this team is still the youngest in the league, and with that, you get mistakes…the good news, as the youngest team the likelihood of improving is higher than any other team. Especially given the amount of talent dispersed on this roster, that should be something to keep in the back of your mind as you watch them the remainder of the season.

Survived…

Posted on by nzurich9
(#56) ILB Edgerrin Cooper won Defensive Player of the Week. (photo credit: Evan Siegel; packers.com).

The Packers escaped Jacksonville with a win and their health. There were quite a few injuries in the game, most-notably QB Jordan Love, exiting with a groin injury. The one injury that may have had the most impact on the game was rookie Safety Evan Williams. Williams injured his hamstring, which is concerning because those seem to linger for quite some time. Once Williams exited, the Packers defense relinquished 20 points stemming from late 2nd quarter. The other rookie safety, Javon Bullard, struggled immensely in both coverage and tackling – which is odd considering he showed early on that he is a good coverage safety and an aggressive tackler. Should Williams continue to miss time, Bullard must produce and more importantly, the pass rush needs to find consistency.

As someone that beats the drum on scoring off turnovers, the Packers did a perfect job against the Jaguars – and that was, by far, the difference in the outcome of the game. The Packers committed 1 turnover, on a good play by the Jaguars corner, but the Packers followed that by intercepting (McKinney’s 6th) Trevor Lawrence on the ensuing drive. From there, the Packers scored touchdowns on each of their takeaways while Jacksonville committed a turnover on their ensuing drive from their lone takeaway. With Green Bay winning that battle 14-0, that was monumental for them to bring home the win.

Cover Boy

Standout rookie linebacker, Edgerrin Cooper, had a phenomenal game. Cooper logged 9 tackles, 1 sack where he forced a fumble that Green Bay immediately turned into a touchdown, and had a monumental pass breakup early in the 4th quarter on 3rd down to keep momentum for the Packers after Jordan Love had exited the game. Cooper keeps flashing and making plays the more snaps he garners.

Malik Willis has been the perfect backup QB. The unwritten expectation of backup quarterbacks is to win half the games you start. Well, Willis has started 2 games and played half of another, and Green Bay has come out victorious in all three appearances.  Should Willis start this coming Sunday and win, we’re getting towards uncharted territory for a backup that will continue to be a backup as Love is still very good (yes, better than Willis) and is paid, but there definitely will be a market for Willis this offseason – and most of the credit goes to Willis for putting in the work. With all of this, Matt LaFleur should be front-runner for Coach of the Year. Here’s a prime example of why he’s so good, a great breakdown by Dan Orlovsky.

The Packers are dealing with quite a few injuries with key players. Not great timing considering the Lions come to town and look as though they’re the best team in the NFL, having the largest point differential in the league and having put up over 40 points in three of their last 4 games. QB Jared Goff in those games has gone 70/83 (84.3%), 972 yards, 10 TD, 0 INT for a QB Rating of 155.1. That’s absurd, and have come against solid teams in Seattle, Dallas, Minnesota, and the #1 defense in Tennessee. This does not bode well for Green Bay who has done a solid job vs. stiff competition, but without takeaways, (minus the Houston game) has relinquished quite a bit of yards – Detroit has done the best job in the league with converting drives to points. The Packers must take the ball away and convert those turnovers into touchdowns should they want to compete, let alone win the game.

Those injuries mentioned above, obviously Jordan Love being the biggest, however the most impactful one may be rookie Safety, Evan Williams. It turns out when Williams is on the field he’s a difference-maker and is solid in both the run and pass game. Compounding the issue is top-tier cornerback, Jaire Alexander, is also hurt and may miss the game, and that spells disaster seeing as the Packers can’t seem to generate a pass rush with 4 down linemen.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll keep beating the drum, the best indicator of a team’s true strength is Point Differential. The Lions rank 1st in the NFL with +100, while Green Bay is solid at the 8th spot at +46. Detroit also does a great job at limiting turnovers ranking 4th (tied with Pittsburgh) and is right up there with Green Bay for taking the ball away. The Packers will (as always) need to win the turnover battle, points off turnovers, and likely time of possession to come out with a victory.

What’s At Stake?

With a victory, the Packers would catapult to the 2nd seed in the NFC playoff race (assuming Washington beats the Giants) behind the Commanders who would have the tiebreaker with a better record vs. NFC opponents. However, should Detroit win, it would give them a large lead in the best division in football (NFC North) by having a 1.5 (+.5) game lead in the division over both Minnesota and Green Bay. While there’s still plenty of football left to be played, this is close to a must-win game for Green Bay to keep pace with Detroit, Minnesota, and Washington for that highly-coveted top seed in the playoffs, which would bring the only BYE in the postseason.

Assuming everyone can play (Love, Tom, Myers, Alexander, and Williams) at a high-level, Green Bay is very close to matching player for player with Detroit, but has yet to put a complete game together. What can be said is Green Bay seems to refuse to put a complete game together, however they also refuse to lose. The Packers are more battle-tested, and should this game come down to one possession, they just may be able to pull this one out.

Prediction

Season: 6-2
Overall: 98-68

Rebuttal…

Posted on by nzurich9
Linebacker, Eric Wilson (#45) had an outstanding game and made multiple plays in key situations. (photo credit: Evan Siegle; packers.com)

The Packers, and Jordan Love, showed extreme resiliancy throughout the entire contest vs. Houston. While the Texans were missing 5 defensive starters, they’re a very good football team that’s extremely well-coached, and it showed. Houston was able to generate pressure against, arguably, the best offensive line in the NFL and forced an interception by doing so. Love had a few miss throws/decisions that led to 2 interceptions, but he kept slingin’ it. With 7 total lead changes throughout the game, the Packers had multiple (6) drives when trailing. Of those six drives, the Packers scored on 4 of them, accumulating all of their 24 points in doing so, with the last drive securing the victory in walk-off fashion.

This 6 drives went as so:

  1. 3 plays, 8 yards PUNT
  2. 13 plays, 92 yards TOUCHDOWN
  3. 6 plays, 70 yards TOUCHDOWN
  4. 3 plays, 1 yard PUNT
  5. 9 plays, 71 yards TOUCHDOWN
  6. 8 plays, 44 yards FIELD GOAL

Here’s a look at how those drives came together…

That’s immense production, coming to 4 points/drive, which if that pace is kept all game, will lead you to well over 40 points in a game. A huge credit is owed to Jeff Hafley (Defensive Coordinator) and the Packers’ defense.

The defense allowed them to overcome a -3 turnover differential, which is nearly impossible, and losing the time of possession 31:17 to 28:43 and still win the game. Generating that much pressure kept C.J. Stroud in hell for much of the game, resulting in 55 net passing yards on 21 pass attempts. That’s incredible, nothing short of it. Of Houston’s 12 drives, the Packers forced 6 punts, with another being a kneel down to end the half. To put it in Points Per Drive perspective, the Texans scored 1.83 points/drive, whereas Green Bay scored 2.18. There’s the difference.

Cover Pic

Eric Wilson has now had 2 games where he’s been an absolute game-changer. Wilson logged 6 tackles (all solo), with 4 tackles for loss (TFL) and 2 of those were sacks. He also had a great pass breakup on a key 3rd down in the 2nd half. Another great play, aside from the 2 sacks and pass defensed, was reading a screen pass to Joe Mixon, who was gouging the Packers for much of the 1st half, form tackled him and set the tone for the defense in the 2nd half. My player of the game.

Too Many Mistakes

There is still a ton to clean up and we are now heading toward the halfway point of the season (which is wild because it feels like the season JUST started!) – and Green Bay continues to have plenty of penalties and miscues, especially on Special Teams. The Packers committed 8 penalties for 55 yards, all of which were costly. In addition, the Special Teams had a penalty on the opening kickoff costing the Packers 23 yards in starting field position. They also had a muffed punt and another where Jayden Reed caught a punt at his own Goal Line taking him into the end zone, and absolute no-no. Luckily Green Bay was able to overcome those and had zero kicking issues with newcomer, Brandon McManus. One last note about special teams…the Packers may have the best Punter in the NFL – Daniel Whelan. Whelan booted 5 punts for 284 yards, a 56.8 yard average, which is insane. Flipping the field each time giving his defense a better chance at stopping the Texans vaunted offense.

Who are the Jacksonville Jaguars? They’re a team with a highly-touted QB (Trevor Lawrence), and, what many believe (me included), a great head coach (Doug Pederson) – with a bunch of guys that can make plays, but the overall sum of the parts is flat out bad. The most productive portion of Jacksonville’s offense is the rush game (12th), and they’re 6th at stopping the run. Green Bay has done a solid job negating the run game from completely taking over the game, but still have been gouged at times. Green Bay has done a great job vs. the pass.

The Packers are a middle-of-the-road defense in essentially every category but are tops in the league by taking the ball away, even after not getting a single turnover in their last game. Jacksonville is very good at not giving the ball away (7 giveaways) ranking T-8th.  Green Bay and Jordan Love should have a great opportunity to have a big game through the air considering the Jags rank 2nd-to-last in the NFL in passing yards surrendered, with 273.9 yards/game. The Jags are also getting scorched in Points Given Up, ranking 2nd-to-last in that category as well. This is due to Jacksonville ranking 24th in 3rd Down Conversion rate at 34.18%, while Green Bay ranks 13th (40.48%), per teamrankings.com.

Green Bay’s defense accumulates sacks, ranking tied for 7th in the NFL with 20 sacks, along with the Seahawks, the Packers have done a great job generating pressure in general and making the opposing QBs uncomfortable. Jacksonville is average in sacks allowed, relinquishing 17 sacks, tying them with Pittsburgh, Los Angeles Rams, and the New York Jets for 14th. Green Bay can either generate turnovers and/or put pressure on Lawrence to for turnovers or end drives altogether. I believe both teams will attempt to establish a ground game, but if things go according to plan, the Jags will have to pass far more than they want to catch up to Green Bay, playing right into Jeff Hafley’s hands.

Predictions

Season: 5-2
Overall: 97-68

That’s About Right

Posted on by nzurich9
Romeo Doubs dives into the end zone. (photo credit: Evan Sigle; packers.com).

The Packers won in every aspect of the game, as they should’ve. Even at that, Green Bay didn’t play all that well, but limited mistakes which paved the way to a 21-point victory. Aside from sloppy footwork on a few throws, Jordan Love played safe, smart football. That translated to 22/32, 258 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT (WR slipped on perfect throw), 119.5 rating.

The best part that likely went unnoticed was Green Bay ran the ball 38 times (54.3%) for 179 yards (4.7 yards/rush). That’s a perfect ratio for success. Not only was it a balanced attack, the carries were split in a balance as well. Josh Jacobs had 18 carries for 62 yards, with Emanuel Wilson getting 7 for 54 yards. This commitment to the run game is the path to postseason success. Yes, you need production with it, however running the ball throughout the game wears the defense down which should turn shorter gains into bigger ones later in the game. It also opens the pass game up a bit along with play action making the offense as dynamic as possible. The time of possession comes with this too as the Packers possessed the ball for 36:35, bringing the Packers up to 6th in the NFL in time of possession averaging 31:55 per game. This helps the defense too…

Speaking of the defense, while we didn’t register a sack, they kept contain on Kyler Murray and pressured him enough to force poor throws. They did generate 3 turnovers on fumbles and again, only scoring 3 points off those turnovers. Green Bay missed a field goal, made a field goal, and ended the game, respectively, off each turnover. The Packers allowed 303 total yards on 10 Arizona drives, which is very solid against the now 15th-ranked offense. Kenny Clark still gets a play-wrecking push when not double-teamed and Rashan Gary was getting a considerable push on the edge throughout the game, while still not registering much in the QB pressure area. Green Bay will need to begin getting sacks when facing less mobile QBs, but as long as they can make the QB uncomfortable, that’s the primary goal as it leads to incompletions and interceptions.

Big Matchup

There are quite a few matchups in the NFL this week that will garner quite a bit of attention, with Houston visiting Lambeau Field as one of them. The Texans are 5-1, with their sole loss coming at the hands of the Vikings, while Green Bay has improved over the last couple of weeks and beginning to hit their stride.

The Texans present a major challenge on defense considering they have one of the brightest young QBs the league has seen in some time – or at least one of the most productive rookie QBs we’ve seen. Much credit should go to Green Bay native, Bobby Slowik, who had a nice article in espn.com, yesterday.

Houston features one of the best young QBs in the game, C.J. Stroud. Stroud will be missing his top target in Nico Collins for at least 4 games after he injured his hamstring in the team’s Week 5 win vs. Buffalo. They do have a familiar face in Stefon Diggs who spent his first 5 seasons in Minnesota. The running back situation for Houston is a bit up in the air as their leading rusher (Joe Mixon) is Questionable for the game, and considering Green Bay has a solid rush defense, this puts a bit more pressure on Stroud and the Texans passing attack, and hopefully Green Bay is able to create a few turnovers again. Scoring off those turnovers is always paramount and it will likely be the difference-maker in the result of the game.

The Packers lead the NFL with 17 takeaways and a +9 turnover differential, where Houston is tied for 14th with 7 takeaways and is tied for 13th with a 0 turnover differential. Green Bay needs to keep the turnover differential in their favor, especially when facing good quality opponents.

Jordan Love and his WR corps are hitting stride at a good time considering the Packers are entering the toughest part of their schedule and are in danger of falling further behind Detroit and Minnesota, but still have 5 divisional games left on their schedule.

Season: 4-2
Overall: 96-68

Preseason Over?

Posted on by nzurich9
QB Jordan Love (#10) launches a pass to Jayden Reed for a 53-yard gain in the 1st Quarter in Sunday’s win at SoFi Stadium against the Rams. (photo credit: Evan Siegle; packers.com).

On the first play of the game, LaFleur had a great play call to get the game going. It was a play-action, semi-rollout for Love to hit Dontayvion Wicks for a 20+ yard gain, but the throw was off by a considerable margin. There were plenty of throws that were just off. However, the misses were fewer and further between than the Week 4 matchup vs. Minnesota. After the 3-yard pick-six Love tossed when trying to avoid a safety, he locked in. I’d even make the argument the pick-6 was better than taking the safety in that situation. Had he taken the safety, the Rams get 2 points and the ball right away. Even if they settled for a field goal on the ensuing drive, that would’ve been a +5 point differential before half, but instead the Packers got the ball back and Love drove down for a field goal as time expired. Thus making that only a +3 point differential (as the Rams missed their extra point attempt).

Love Locked In

Since the pick-6, Love settled in:

  • 10/16 (completion/attempts)
  • 152 yards
  • 2 TD
  • 0 INT
  • 133.3 Rating

Entering the 2nd half, the Packers did what they’ve done all season, generated turnovers. Los Angeles’ first possession of the 3rd quarter ended in a fumble caused by Kingsley Enagbare, and recovered by, guess who, Xavier McKinney. From that point on, Jordan Love and Tucker Kraft put on a show. Keep in mind, the last throw by Love was a deep shot to Wicks down the right sideline, that Wicks decided to jump early for, misreading the throw, and it still hit him in both hands, but couldn’t come down with it. That would’ve iced the game, and had Wicks just kept running instead of jumping for it, might’ve been a TD. Either way, Love has now strung consecutive 2nd halves together and put on a solid show. In the 2nd halves in each of the last two games, plus the last drive prior to half of each game, Love has dominated…and keep in mind, that’s with many drops by all of his targets – not named Tucker Kraft.

  • 31/46
  • 439 yards
  • 6 TDs
  • 1 INT
  • 128.5 Rating

That’s incredible stuff. Essentially a game’s worth of snaps and 2 games worth of production. Even if he strings together just three quarters of a game, he should obliterate defenses, good ones at that.

Who Are the Cardinals?

The Arizona Cardinals visit Lambeau Field at 2-3 on the season, with impressive wins over the Rams (41-10) and 49ers (24-23) – outscoring San Francisco 14-0 in the 2nd half of that game. Both teams coming off a much-needed win and absolutely need another to keep pace in their respective divisions.

For consecutive weeks, the Packers will face an NFC West foe, and their defense isn’t good. The Cards rank near the bottom of the league in rush defense, as the Rams did last week. Green Bay didn’t commit to the run nearly as much as we want or need, but were quite effective. Look for Green Bay to get to a closer balance on offense with Love beginning to get his footing (as referenced above), and open up the run game for Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson. Much like the first 2 games of the season, Green Bay’s defense will be tested by an uber-mobile QB in Kyler Murray. Murray has elite speed and is a danger to take it to the house from anywhere on the field. My guess is the Packers will play contain on the front and look to stop the rush with their front 4. The pass rush stats may not accumulate again this week however, forcing Murray to beat you from the pocket with his arm is the way to go. It wouldn’t be a shock if Green Bay comes away with another 2-3 interceptions. The main focal points for the Packers’ defense will be on rookie standout, Marvin Harrison, Jr. and TE Trey McBride. Harrison has 4 TDs on only 17 receptions, and will likely attract Jaire Alexander most of the game, should Alexander become available after missing the last two games.

If this is the game Jordan Love decides to put together more than 2 quarters of good play, the Packers could win handily and close out the game on the ground, which would be ideal. Green Bay is due for a stress-free win as the last one came in the Wild Card game in Arlington, TX against the Cowboys. Even then, Dallas scored 16 late points to window dress a bit.

Season: 3-2
Overall: 95-68

Close Ain’t Good Enough

Posted on by nzurich9
Photo credit: Alli Rusco – Minnesota Vikings

The Packers committed a flury of mistakes: 4 turnovers (3 interceptions, 1 fumble); dropped interception; multiple drops; 2 missed field goals; 8 penalties; multiple drops. Green Bay made a game of it, cutting the score to 28-22 with 10:16 left in the game. Eliminate just one of those mistakes and the argument can be made Green Bay comes out victorious. Minnesota was able to jump out to a 28-0 lead which essentially iced the game in the 1st half…essentially.

There’s Fight In This Team

Green Bay, and Jordan Love, settled into the game after a muffed punt by Minnesota to set up the Packers’ first score of the game late in the 2nd quarter. It was obvious that Love had little confidence in the injured left knee in the first half. He was able to drive the ball much better in the 2nd half and played fairly flawlessly until a poor decision to chuck one up in the end zone to Wicks when Safety Harrison Smith came free off the edge on a blitz. Love had Tucker Kraft wide open in the middle of the field for a 12+ yard gain, and what makes it frustrating is that came on 1st down.

What should seem like a broken record now, Jayden Reed is on the scene and is a legit top WR in the NFL. In his 2 games with Jordan Love this season, he’s totaled 23 touches, 427 yards, and 3 TDs. He’s a weapon and head coach Matt LaFleur knows how to get him the ball in space. Reed is dynamic and can really leverage a defense and showed it in this game vs. a top defense in the NFL.

Who Are the Rams?

The Rams enter this game with a 1-3 record, however that sole victory came against the San Francisco 49ers where LA found themselves trailing by double-digits, twice, in that game before coming back and icing the game. While San Fran hasn’t looked all that good since Week 1, they’re still uber talented and, like Minnesota, anyone that beats them should be taken seriously. QB Matt Stafford can still beat you with his arm and decision-making, but he has little to work with, being his top 2 targets are out with injuries. In the Rams’ last game in Chicago, they committed 2 turnovers which the first Chicago turned into a TD and the last ended the game. There should be opportunities for Green Bay’s defense to grab a few passes, and the Packers will need to convert those turnovers into touchdowns.

As you can see, the Rams suffer terribly on the defensive side of the ball. Love has done a great job of accumulating yards and points in the 2 games he’s played, and the Packers still rank 3rd in yards and 6th in points, with half of their games started by an inexperienced QB where they focused on the run game. Look for Green Bay to put up some serious yards and points in this game – at least they should.

There are 2 players to keep an eye on from the Rams side…Kyren Williams (running back) and rookie edge rusher Jared Verse. Williams has 86 touches for 326 yards, with 6 touchdowns in 4 games. Green Bay struggles a bit vs the run, but have shown improvement over last year and this will be another test as they’ve given up big plays and yards in the 2 games where they’ve faced solid rushing attacks (Phi and Min).

Verse doesn’t have a ton of stats piled up, yet, but he’s a potential star in the making and should test Green Bay’s offensive line in this game. Keeping him from Love will be paramount if the Packers want to tally up these yards and points, I’ve referenced…

Could this go Sideways?

The Packers have suspended WR Romeo Doubs for one game after he missed practice on consecutive days this week. There have been multiple reports stating varying reasons, anything from “Doubs is unhappy with his role in this week’s gameplan,” to him having anxiety issues, etc. Speculating is all we can really do as the team hasn’t really offered an explanation, but best-case scenario is this turns out to be a similar situation to the Jaire Alexander proclaiming himself captain when they faced the Carolina Panthers last year. This might be a move to send a message that no 1 player is bigger than the team and it’ll give him time to figure out whatever is plaguing him to miss practice.

Other than these distractions and injuries, it’s hard to imagine Green Bay having a problem with the banged up Rams. Then again, it’s the NFL and the Packers always seem to lose 2 games they have no business losing. If the Packers committ only half of the mistakes as they did against Minnesota, Green Bay should depart Los Angeles with their 3rd win on teh season.

Season: 2-2
Overall: 94-68

It’s a Big One

Posted on by nzurich9

First things first, let’s review the Packers excellent win in Nashville this past Sunday. Malik Willis executed to near perfection, again. He threw for 202 yards completing 13 of his 19 pass attempts (68.4%) and a TD to Emmanual Wilson. Willis also added 73 yards on the ground on just 6 attempts, along with a TD on the game’s first drive. The ole saying goes Just try to win half of your games with your backup. That would keep the team afloat until the starter returns. If Willis plays this Sunday and Green Bay loses, he’d still have accomplished his job by winning 2 of 3.

Much of the reason the Packers were able to win both of Willis’ starts is due to the defense. These last two weeks, the Packers have surrendered 12 points/game. That’s more than enough to get the job done, even with a backup quarterback. In those 2 games, the Packers’ defense has forced 6 turnovers, 7 punts, and 2 turnovers on downs out of 21 total drives. Meaning the Packers are allowing opponents to score on only 28.6% of their drives. They’re only scoring touchdowns on 14.3% (3 TDs) of those drives. While that’s a little nerdy, another way to look at it would be Points per Drive. Green Bay, the last 2 weeks, have yielded 1.1 points/drive, while scoring 2.3 points/drive. Ideally, as an offense, you want that number closer to 3 (ala a Field Goal every drive) as that’d put you close to 30-36 points per game, a healthy number.

Speaking of the defense, the pass rush came alive, as we expected them to facing Will Levis. Levis is mobile-enough, but not in the same class as Jalen Hurts or Anthony Richardson. The Packers pressured Levis almost all game and sacked him 8 times for a total loss of 56 yards. Don’t expect 8 sacks again, as it hasn’t happened for 20 years, but 3-4 sacks a game is a good target to hit, and essentially eliminates an entire drive of a game (acts as a turnover if you will).

Issues?

There are 2 things that stood out to me…first is penalties. The Packers committed 10 penalties for 75 yards. That’s far too many. The Titans only had 2 penalties, albeit crucial on the missed Field Goal attempt by Narveson, resulting in the Wilson touchdown. Left Tackle, Rasheed Walker, keeps finding himself in the doghouse for committing these and killing drives. This must be cleaned up, especially against better quality opponents.

The other issue I noticed after re-watching the Titans game was play action. Tennessee was able to gain significant yardage in the pass game off play action. It seemed the Packers played zone for much of the game, forcing Levis to beat them with accuracy, which he obviously wasn’t able to do. However, versus better quarterbacks, this is what killed the Packers under ex-Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry. The premise is that receivers will be covered quicker in zone and then uncover to wide open spaces, but the idea is the pass rush will get home and either sack the QB or force bad throws by the time the targets uncover. I’d expect a mix of zone and man coverage against Minnesota with Darnold playing well so far and having one of, if not the, top receivers in the NFL – Justin Jefferson – at his disposal.

Welcome a Familiar Face

The Vikings may be the surprise of the NFL, starting the season 3-0, two of those wins coming against quality opponents: San Francisco; Houston. Minnesota had traded up in last year’s draft to select J.J. McCarthy (QB – Michigan) after moving on from Kirk Cousins. McCarthy ended up inuring his knee this preseason and turned to Sam Darnold, a former 1st round pick for the Jets…Darnold finally finds himself in a good setup and is flourishing. The theme for the 2024 NFL season has been Coaching is Paramount. From talented Bryce Young being benched in Carolina, to Caleb Williams in Chicago, Justin Fields in Pittsburgh, hell even Malik Willis in Green Bay – production seems to come from good coaching in good situations.

While Sam Darnold (53/78, 657 yards, 8 TD, 2 INT, 117.3 RAT) is the surprise of the league – although this might’ve always been the best spot for his career to take him…dome, good offensive-minded coach, talent surrounding him, etc. – all eyes will be on former fan-favorite Aaron Jones’ return to 1265 Lombardi Ave. Aaron Jones is still a good human, and he’s leaning into the Vikings fans SKOL chant, just as he did with the Lambeau Leap – he’s a good person and great teammate. However, as soon as the ball is kicked, he’s the enemy, hopefully Packer nation doesn’t forget that…even with his heartfelt message to Packer fans this week

Aside from Jones, who’s averaging 18 touches and 108 yards per game this season, the other threat is obviously wide receiver Justin Jefferson (5 touches, 87 yards, and 1 TD per game so far). I’m not sure if there’s a way to take both guys away from the game, but shadowing Edgerrin Cooper on Jones (all he’s done is flashed and produced in his limited snaps), as he’s a freak athlete for an Inside Linebacker, and mirroring Jaire Alexander on Justin Jefferson, is likely Green Bay’s best shot. Keep in mind, in Week 17 of the 2022 season, Jaire absolutley shut down Jefferson. Jefferson’s stats from that game were 1 catch on 5 targets for 15 yards. I believe Jaire wasn’t even covering Jefferson on the one catch. Alexander screwed him up for the remainder of the season. To quote Wayne Larrivee, “Jefferson missed the flight back to Minnesota after the game because he was locked in prison.”

The Packers’ pass rush also has another opportunity to generate pressure on Sam Darnold. Their offensive line is susceptible to a pass rush. The Vikings have been able to survive it for the first 3 weeks of the season, and Darnold won’t hold onto the ball nearly as long as Will Levis did last week, but pressuring the QB is always a great thing as it’ll generate timing issues and potentially turnover-worthy plays. Zach Kruse on X, had a solid post showing the Vikings’ weaknesses. Should Green Bay be able to get a combination of 6 (sacks + turnovers), and with Jordan Love playing (hopefully), that may be enough to win the game for the Green & Gold. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams played, Love had made epic strides in his game and completely dismantled Brian Flores’ defense, which has shut down the 49ers and Texans these past two week, both very good offenses.

Matchup

The key matchup will be the Vikings’ 2nd ranked rush defense vs. the Packers top-rated rush offense. If Jordan Love ends up playing, the Packers likely won’t be running nearly as much, having run 90 of their 126 offensive snaps the last 2 weeks (71.4%), but setting the tone early by running is never a bad thing. I believe an ideal ratio would be 60:40 pass-to-run, with Love at QB. With passing more, that likely means more offensive snaps, if Green Bay can run 70 snaps this game that would put the rush attemps around 25-30, which would be ideal.

Prediction

Season: 2-1
Overall: 94-67

Brilliant Gameplan, Brilliant Execution

Posted on by nzurich9
Malik Willis (#2) unleashes a pass in the Home-opener vs. Indianapolis. (photo credit: Evan Siegel, packers.com)

Huge credit to newcomer, Malik, Willis, for executing an absolutely brilliant gameplan by Matt LaFleur. When things are tough, simplicity is usually the best method. Reminding me of Bill Belichick’s approach, (paraphrasing) “We attack the other team’s weakness.” Regardless of what you do well, attacking the opponent’s weakness is almost always the best plan. The Colts had given up 213 yards rushing to the Houston Texans in Week 1, and the Packers doubled-down on that approach in Week 2. Green Bay amassed 261 yards rushing on 53 attempts (4.9 avg.), setting the tone quite early and wearing out that defensive front for the remainder of the game. This allowed the offensive line to give Willis a clean pocket on the rare times LaFleur called for a pass, easing the task for the newcomer to execute.

On the times Willis did drop back to pass, passing lanes were there and receivers were open. LaFleur didn’t ask too much of Willis, likely giving him directions to “look for your first 2 open reads, if nothing is there, tuck it and take off.” That was clear to the fan watching the game, and the right gameplan all along. Minimize mistakes/negative plays (turnovers, loss of yardage) and forcing the Colts to beat you instead of beating yourself. All of this is great in theory during the week in prepping for the Colts – none of it works without execution from the offensive line. The OL played absolutely great, aside from Josh Myers’ 2 illegal man downfield penalties wiping out a touchdown and huge gain. The Colts didn’t sack Willis at all and rarely pressured him on his 14+ drop backs.

Josh Jacobs (#8) got in rhythm early and often vs. the Colts. (photo credit: Evan Siegel, packers.com)

Josh Jacobs showed why he was brought in to Lambeau carrying the ball 32 times for 151 yards. It had been some time since a Packers running back was able to handle that type of load…and take over a game by wearing the other team out. He also created many yards of his own, making the OL appear even greater than they were. Jocobs often makes the first man miss, and if there is only 1 defender, that turns into chunk yards, quickly. Explosion runs (12+ yards) are far more demoralizing to a defense than explosion pass plays (20+ yards). as all 11 are involved and running after the ball carrier. This is a glimpse of what we want (need) in January when the weather turns and we need pure ball control.

Turnovers

While Jeff Hafley’s defense has given up plenty of yards, especially on the ground and late in games, his defense does generate turnovers. It’s what you do on offense with those turnovers that often dictates the outcomes of games. The Packers intercepted Anthony Richardson on their 2nd drive of the game, and drove all the way down to the 1 yard line where Jacobs fumbled it into the end zone. Had he held on to that ball, it’s 17-0 and this game is entirely different. Likely a blowout and while we’re excited about the outcome, we’d feel even more confident had the Packers won 23-6 or better! From the 3 takeaways, the Packers scored 0 points, often a recipe for disaster, however that should’ve been 10 points — the aforementioned Jacobs’ fumble, and the other was a missed Field Goal. The last turnover came on the last play of the game, but still huge which sealed the victory. All in all, an incredible gameplan, effort, and execution on both sides of the ball resulting in getting in the win-column and getting in a good mood heading into Tennessee.

Matchup

The Titans are an interesting bunch. They too could easily be 2-0, but had QB issues in Week 1 at Soldier Field vs. Chicago and had a blocked punt in Week 2 vs. the Jets. Last week was a back-and-forth game, vs. a very solid defense, and were able to move the ball, but were ultimately held out of the end zone on their last drive of the game. Tennessee received the ball at their own 30 with 4:31 left on the clock, down 24-17. The Jets’ defense held the Titans by sacking Will Levis on a 3rd & Goal from NYJ’s 8 yard line, and forcing an incompletion on 4th & Goal from the Jets’ 14 yard line. This team is tough, and has a solid defense. However, the offenses they’ve faced have had problems of their own, and their QB doesn’t make things easier. The Titans are giving up 24 points/game (24 points in each game, actually) and have struggled to score 17, albeit vs. very very good defenses. The Packers’ defense will need to generate a strong, early, and constant pass rush on passing down to get Levis uncomfortable and force bad throws/decisions, because the Titans’ running game is likely to have success. Generating those turnovers AND SCORING TOUCHDOWNS OFF OF THEM will be paramount. Having Malik Willis’ “Redemption Game” (having being demoted to 3rd string in Tennessee before trading him to Green Bay) would be a great story, Jordan Love playing gives the offense the best chance to convert those turnovers to touchdowns.

The tricky thing about Tennessee, is while I believe their QB, Will Levis, isn’t all that good he has faced possibly the 2 best defenses in the NFL. The Bears and Jets can each cover quite well and get after the quarterback in the pass game. The Jets are also solid vs. the run, so to assume the Packers will have the same kind of success is dangerous. With that, Green Bay has shown the ability to generate turnovers, and Levis will make poor decisions throughout the game – catching those poor decisions will give Green Bay the opportunity to kill Titan drives and put points on the board.

Prediction

Regardless if Jordan Love plays, I think Malik Willis proved to many that he’s more than capable of handling the task from Matt LaFleur and winning a football game. Whether that’s through ground and pound, or through the air, he has the mind, tools, and legs to generate positive plays and is smart enough to keep the ball safe.

Season: 1-1
Overall: 93-67