A familiar site from Green Bay’s humiliating 34-20 loss at the paws of the Detroit Lions…a 4th consecutive loss to the Lions. Detroit racked up 401 total yards on 73 plays, for an astonishing 5.5 yards/play. 211 of those 401 yards (53%) came on the ground. Something that needs to be corrected now, and moving forward if the Green Bay Packers want to ever think about contending for a title in the next 3 years.

Detroit dominated in the trenches, on both sides of the ball. As mentioned above, rushing for over 200 yards is almost a guaranteed victory statistic, their defense sacked Jordan Love 5 times for 43 yards. That’s essentially 2 full drives worth and an entire field position flip’s worth of issues. There was not one facet of the game where the Packers were the better team – not one. That being said, the optimist in me will say that Jordan Love never looked flustered, didn’t give up, and didn’t get on his teammates, and kept fighting. While that should be the bare minimum any athlete gives (let alone a professional athlete), it needs to be stated because more often than not the give-up tolerance in these players today is far lower than in year’s passed.

Dan Campbell has Detroit on the right track. They opened the season in Arrowhead at the defending champs, and won. They’re an OT home loss to Seattle away from being undefeated and near the ranks with the 49ers and Eagles for the cream of the crop in the NFC…maybe the entire NFL. The Lions are about 1.5 years ahead of the Packers, as both franchises seem to be on the right track and are doing things the right way — building for the future through youth.

Sin City- I believe the Packers arrived yesterday, and hopefully there wasn’t a Sunday Funday experience, as this is another great opportunity for this young Packers team to improve. These teams are about as evenly matched (on paper) as can be. The Raiders are 1-3, opening the season with a close win in Denver to the awful Broncos, then have since lost three in a row. Former Packers Pro Bowl wideout, Davante Adams, has recently voices his frustrations with the Raiders. However, if he’s searching for whom to blame, a mirror would suffice. If he’s a full go tonight, it’ll be great to watch him go man-on-man (hopefully Joe Barry doesn’t play zone) with the league’s best corner, Jaire Alexander – who’s looking to make his return tonight.

Green Bay will have no better opportunity to improve it’s rush defense rank than it will tonight. Monday Night Football will feature the two worst rush offenses in the NFL. While both teams feature great backfields – even though Aaron Jones isn’t playing, it’s something amiss as to why the Packers avg. fewer than 75 yards on the ground per game and Las Vegas can’t even average 70! Both defenses should be gearing up to stop the pass as the ground games should keep themselves in check, in theory.

	GB Off.	(rank)	vs.	LV Def.		(rank)
Rush	74.5	31st		134.3	25th
Pass	206.3	18th		202.6	12th
Total	280.8	29th		337.0	16th
Pts	25.0	10th		25.3	25th
	GB Def.			LV Off.
Rush	155.3	31st		65.3	32nd
Pass	197.3	10th		216.5	14th
Total	352.5	21st		281.8	28th
Pts	24.0	23rd		15.5	30th
T/O	GB			LV
Takeaways	4	T-22nd		1	32nd
Giveaways	3	T-5th		10	T-28th
Diff.	1	T-14th		(9)	T-31st

Where the Packers can scratch out a victory will be the distinct advantage in turnover differential. Green Bay does a great job of holding onto the ball…only having Jordan Love’s 3 interceptions against them all year, whereas Las Vegas is abysmal in both departments of taking the ball away and holding onto it.

Another indicator as to how evenly matched these teams are is time of possession. The Raiders are 23rd in the NFL averaging 27:39 time of possession per game, while Green Bay is ranks 29th averaging 26:54. If Aaron Jones is 100% (unlike last week), look for Matt LaFleur to run early and often to dictate the trench-play as well as wear down that front of Las Vegas by the 4th quarter. Even if the run game isn’t working, it does wear the pass rush and sets up play action, if you’re committed to it.

Lastly, the Raiders have 3 outstanding players. Everyone has heard of Davante Adams. Most are familiar with Josh Jacobs, just from fantasy alone. The Packers need to keep Jacobs in check and if he’s a full GO, holding him to <100 yards would be a huge step in the right direction. The 3rd player, may be their best, Defensive End Maxx Crosby (#98). This guy is a beast, and can disrupt a game much like Aiden Hutchinson of the Lions. Crosby can generate pressure much alike Rashan Gary, and after the “performance” of the Packers’ OL last week………………………………

I’m going to go with the homer pick, because why not?

Packers 31 (+2)
Raiders 26

Season: 2-2
Overall: 89-54

Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers had a 4-quarter stretch that resembled an outmatched high school team playing a state’s best team. See below:

Quarter	Plays	Yards	Points
W2Q4	10	7	0
W3Q1	11	35	0
W3Q2	7	9	0
W3Q3	17	79	0
Totals	45	130	0

The fact the Packers actually had a chance to win both games with 4 quarters (shown above) in an 8-quarter stretch is quite promising. It’s also very math-like that the Packers outside of those abysmal 4 quarters put up 434 yards over 73 plays and 42 points in the other 4. So it makes a ton of sense that they’d go 1-1 as both games could’ve been either wins or losses, ahh the fun-struggle of following the NFL. As awesome as this comeback was, and it was a season-opener for the ages, there’s little time to celebrate as the biggest game of the year is here.

To the shock of many of you, not to ones who read here (insert smirking emoji), the 2-best teams in the division square off on a nationally televised game which will give Jordan Love and the baby Packers another opportunity to showcase their ability – as well as another dynamic learning experience (short week, rivalry game, night game, etc.).

Another major issue…these injuries sure have racked up and it’s early. Whether it’s turf-related, or soft tissue things (hamstrings), they’re all frustrating. While a great guy, David Bakhtiari’s career in Green Bay seems to have met it’s end. With the Packers ability to build offensive line, it’s best to keep him out and hold him to the playoffs or the playoff push and get the most out of him in the most important games down the stretch. In these games (as almost every game) it comes to QB-play and winning in the trenches…Detroit has one of the best OL’s in the NFL, but Green Bay showed last week they all need to be accounted for. Rashan Gary has the highest win rate of all pass-rushers, his only limitation is his pitch-count, but if he plays all passing downs, he’s a problem, big problem. Rookie Lukas Van Ness has also shown to be the 2nd best/most-effective pass rusher of all rookies (Jalen Carter). Between Gary, LVN, and Kenny Clark, if they win the fight on the line, that will allow Jordan Love to do what Jordan Love does…

Matchup~

	Det off.	(rank)	vs.	GB def.	(rank)
Rush	111.7	11		136.7	27
Pass	269.7	7		199.7	10
Total	381.3	8		336.3	15
Pts	24.0	T-12		20.7	T-13
	Det def.			GB off.
Rush	72.0	5		90.3	23
Pass	225.3	19		207.3	19
Total	297.3	11		297.7	22
Pts	21.0	15		26.7	8
T/O
Takeaways	2	T-22nd		3	T-19th
Giveaways	5	T-21st		1	T-1st
Diff.	(3)	T-24th		2	T-9th

While Detroit is on offense, they have the distinct advantage in each category. However, the rank of scoring is very even, so that tells me Green Bay’s able to bend and not break (outside of the 4th quarter vs Atlanta). Adversely, when Green Bay has the ball, they’re able to find ways to score. The Packers’ rush offense could really benefit from the return of Aaron Jones as Detroit boasts a top-5 team vs. the run, and we know that time of possession is key, almost as key as turnovers, which Green Bay only has 1 (knock on wood).

• Detroit 32:07 (7th)
• Green Bay 28:32 (23rd)

Detroit is better in every category other than scoring and turnovers…mmm, weird how that works. The main matchups are going to be how Green Bay deals with Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR #14) (especially if Jaire Alexander doesn’t play) and if they can keep Aiden Hutchinson (#97) from wrecking the game altogether.

Lions 23 (-1.5)
Packers 21

My prediction record….
Season: 1-2
Overall: 88-54

The Packers had the game in control for a little over 48 minutes. Atlanta kept with the run, thus wearing down the defense, and Green Bay’s offense couldn’t gain a first down and that was enough to open the flood gates. With a first year starter at QB, and the youngest roster the NFL has seen in 6 years, these types of games are going to occur. It’s clear as day the Packers have talent scattered all over the field – however, they’re lacking experience and this is how they get it. Buckle up, there are going to be 3-5 more games like this this season alone.

Speaking of the Packers’ offense, Jordan Love compiled a decent game again, proving enough to almost anyone with two working eyes that he’s capable of being good. Now he must string this together for an entire season to garner an extension (I fully expect him to). While he didn’t seem rattled in the 4th quarter, his production – or lack thereof – would say otherwise. The Packers ran 10 plays for a total of 7 yards in the entire fourth quarter, and a defense that held the Falcons in check, began to break. Green Bay ended up allowing 211 rushing yards the Packers lost the time of possession 36:15 to 23:45. Those numbers will need to improve should the Green & Gold have visions of making a playoff run.

Another bright spot, rookie WR Jayden Reed arrived on the scene with his first 2 TDs. As mentioned above, Jordan Love continued on with another 3 TDs and 0 INTs (thanks to a dropped INT late). He’ll need to increase his completion percentage. Love ranks first in QB Rating (118.8), and T-1st in TDs (6), but 30th in completion % (55.8%). It’s not that he’s inaccurate or missing open guys, but an overall timing situation and rhythm with the rest of the offense. It’s correctable, but reps are needed. The real disappointment was A.J. Dillon. He had another opportunity to shine and as he has in the past, he let down the team/fans. He’s produced in the past, but this was a lot of slipping, not keeping his feet and missing open holes and hitting others at the wrong time. I’ve been a long defender of Dillon and loved him as a pick, but this is likely his last season in Green Bay as HBs are easily replaceable with mid-late round draft picks.

(2-0) New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers (1-1)

The Saints have won both games by the closest of margins – they’ve done so with solid/aggressive defensive play. There’s a good article and point brought up by Jeff Duncan. The point he raises is how New Orleans corners are very handsy and aggressive with pass catchers, and while they get called from time to time for pass interference or illegal contact, they get away with a ton too, which forces the offense into tough situations or turnovers. It also allows their pass rushers more time to get to the quarterback as the receivers take more time to get into their route and location by fighting through the defenders. Don’t think the Saints aren’t aware, they know, they know the opponent knows, and still are committed to this play. This may be the game where Love ends his turnover-less streak, but there’s good chance that he takes a few more deep shots in hopes to either connect or get a call or two to really pick up some chunk yards.

Matchup~

	NO off.	(rank)	vs.	GB def.	(rank)
Rush	101.5	17		166.5	30
Pass	244.5	8		212.0	17
Total	346.0	10		378.5	27
Pts	18.0	25		22.5	14
	NO def.			GB off.
Rush	102.0	14		88.0	24
Pass	160.0	7		188.5	23
Total	262.0	5		276.5	25
Pts	16.0	T-5		31.0	2
T/O
Takeaways	4	T-7th		3	T-12th
Giveaways	3	T-15th		0	T-1st
Diff.	1	T-11th		3	T-5th

The Saints, based on yardages, are a very strong and balanced team. For some reason, they just don’t score points. They do a great job of limiting points, as mentioned above, those quarterbacks they faced (Tannehill in week 1, and rookie Bryce Young in week 2), struggled. Tannehill threw 3 interceptions which New Orleans scored 10 points off of those leading them to a 1-point victory. The following week, the rookie Young was pedestrian and was shut down for essentially the entire game until a late touchdown (Carolina’s first of the game) came with 1:58 left.

Love will need to continue to take care of the football and keep his defense off the field, while scoring points. Where the Packers can benefit is they have the best pass blocking unit in the NFL so far on this young season, and the Saints need time to get to the quarterback, so there should be some opportunities to get chunk plays, but Jordan MUST convert them, otherwise it’ll be a repeat of the 4th quarter last week and New Orleans’ defensive backs will continue to gain confidence and could shut down the Packers receiving corps.

It doesn’t help that Green Bay may be without their 4 best offensive players: Bakhtiari; Jenkins; Watson; Jones. To compound the issue, Green Bays’ BEST overall player, Jaire Alexander, may miss the game too. That’s essentially 5 of their top 8 players missing in action…possibly.

All in all, it seems to be a pretty even matchup, as New Orleans has a bunch of veterans that have experience, but Green Bay has the talent and speed to compete with anyone on any day, hence why they’re favored. Plus it’s the home opener, a great opportunity to start the season strong and get out the gate at 2-1.

Saints 27 (+1)
Packers 24

Season: 1-1
Overall: 88-53

New year, new Quarterback, same ‘ol Bears. It shouldn’t come as a shock that the NFL’s worst team in 2022, got worse over the off-season, ended up getting…worse. While Chicago isn’t great, despite what their fan base chirped about for months, the Packers did what they were supposed to do, as did Jordan Love. Love ran the offense, not perfectly, but executed well enough to put up 31 points. What separated Love’s performance from a-manyd expectations, was his production on money downs (3rd & 4th downs). Love was a perfect 158.3 QB rating on those downs, and that was the difference in the entire game.

Following the 1st drive, where the Packers scored a touchdown on 11 plays, they went to running backs 7 (63.6%) of those plays. On drive 2, 3, and 4 of the game, the Packers got away from the rushing attack, running 12 plays only accruing 33 yards. Green Bay ended up sticking with the rush attack, even though it didn’t produce a ton. Of the 60 plays Green Bay ran in the game, the Packers rushed it 32 (53%) times, which is a great balance. By doing so, the Packers only had 92 yards on the ground, for a measley average of 2.9 yards/rush, but they controlled the game throughout, and it opened the passing game for Jordan Love. Jones and Dillon combined for 26 touches and 163 total yards (6.3 yards/touch), with 2 touchdowns. It was mostly Showtime’s production, but continuing to feed the running backs is the name of the game for the Packers, should they want to be successful this year.

In addition to Love, Jones, and the offense doing its part – Quay Walker and the defense brought their lunch pail too. The D gave up 20 points, took it away twice, and scored on the lone interception of the ballgame. The Packers controlled the line of scrimmage, which dictated the outcome of the game. Keep that up all year and this team could be dangerous.

Has Atlanta Rebuilt to a Contender?

Now Green Bay travels to one of the coolest stadiums in the NFL, Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Located in the heart of downtown Atlanta, it does have the new field turf, which has (correctly) received much backlash for the Aaron Rodgers achilles injury, as well as the huge uptick in injuries occurring on that type of field.

The Falcons are a different team than Chicago, and they’re a bit better. Atlanta did, however, give up 154 yards rushing which Green Bay should capitalize on with their likely-continued ground attack. Look for the offense to run (pun intended) through Showtime (Aaron Jones) and to make things easier – again – for Jordan Love in the passing game. This is the best recipe for any QB at any level; balance.

There are a few players to watch when Atlanta rocks their throwbacks…uber-athletic TE Kyle Pitts (#8), the highest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson (#7), and WR Drake London (#5).

The Packers should benefit from MLB Quay Walker passing concussion protocol and being available to help cover all 3 of these guys – especially Bijon and Pitts. Should Green Bay generate pressure and get QB Desmond Ridder to rush a few throws and believe he’s under more duress during the game than he actually is, while that’s great to get vs. all opposing QBs, he really seems to struggle and it could create a looooong day in Hotlanta.

Packers 27 (+1.5)
Falcons 24

Season: 1-0
Overall: 88-52

Considering this is the first Quarterback not named Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers to start a week 1 game for the Green Bay Packers since September 6th, 1992 – we’re in for something. The news story is Jordan Love, and should be, however the expectations are the unknown (also as they should be?).

Considering this is the first Quarterback not named Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers to start a week 1 game for the Green Bay Packers since September 6th, 1992 – we’re in for something. The news story is Jordan Love, and should be, however the expectations are the unknown (also as they should be?). Many writers and “experts” have gone back to Aaron Rodgers’ first year as a starter (2008 season) since the parallels are hard to ignore, and used that as a barometer for both stat line and team record. That’s not a bad thought – others have used Matt LaFleur’s inaugural season as Green Bay’s 15^th head coach. Rodgers’ stat line there wasn’t great, but one thing stuck out for me was the TD:INT ratio.

• 353/569 (62%)
• 4002 yards
• 26 TD
• 4 INT
• 95.4 rating (12^th)

That’s a solid stat line, coupled with an opportunistic defense and a lot of close wins, the Packers went 13-3 that season and ended up with the 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. If Jordan Love mimics that stat line, it wouldn’t be out of the question that Green Bay posts another 13-win season, which would be huge moving forward. However, I’d expect essentially the same stats, but with a few more interceptions as the communication and relationship Rodgers and Davante had been one of the best in the NFL, and Love needs time to generate anything close to that – which is why Rodgers’ interceptions were so low.

Never in history, has a fan base of such an awful team talked so much trash. Bear nation has run its mouth about Justin Fields winning MVP and overtaking the Packers in the head-to-head matchup. To quote Kevin Garnett, “Anything is possible!,” Justin Fields would be on his own island of players to flip a switch with such a sample size and just become good. Outside of one-year wonders, Fields is essentially what he is, a super athletic QB that can make a throw or two, then again, what pro QB can’t make 1-2 throws, total?

There’s a great website, nflrankings.theringer.com, that deep dives on grading and analytics of Quarterbacks and ranks them in a video game style that’s easy to understand. What’s funny is they have Jordan Love ranked above Fields and the knock-on Love is due to him being “a mystery,” and the praise of Fields is “He puts the fear of God in FL defenses…right up until the ball leaves his hands.” I can’t think of a harsher knock on a QB than that.

Don’t get me wrong, can Fields take over a game and win? Sure. Plenty of athletic QBs have decimated Green Bay since the Randall Cunningham days (let’s not forget Kaepernick in 2012 running rampant), but is this something to be worried about long-term and think Fields will take over the NFL? Put it this way, if Fields is still QB of the Bears in 3 years, that’s going to be REALLY good for one of these franchises, likely the Packers.

How can Green Bay keep the streak going? Implied above, the Packers can limit the mistakes by shortening the game and running the ball behind their solid offensive line, thus opening passing lanes for Love and the young, yet dangerous, receiving targets. One of those targets, Watson, will be OUT and it’ll be even more imperative for Love to execute the gameplan and get the ground game going early and often.

The other main item to keep an eye on is Rashan Gary. The Packers have solid pass rush, and with their stud, they may boast one of the best in the NFL. However, Gary is coming off a torn ACL last year in Detroit, and typically guys don’t return to 100% until the 2nd season after returning. There are a few instances of guys returning the following year, but it’s rare and they’re usually superstars (ala Adrian Peterson and Willis McGahee), which Rashan Gary may be, but look for him to be on a pitch count, and hopefully super effective. Green Bay does have Gary listed as the starting OLB on the team depth chart, which is a great sign as the Packers are usually one of the more conservative teams when it comes to injuries.

For Week 1 in the NFL, there’s not much to typically be made of it, for what it’s worth, the last 10 eventual Super Bowl winners have gone 8-2 in week 1. I will say, in terms of trash talk, the outcome of this game will have more impact on Bear fans should they lose vs. Packer fans if Green Bay falls. I’m guessing it’ll be a close game, but the Packers have the better OL, DL, and QB. Turnovers will likely dictate the outcome in this one, and when Green Bay loses, it’s because of the turnover battle.

Packers 27 (+1.5)
Bears 23

Season: 0-0
Overall: 87-52

Will this become a familiar sight? Kansas City has participated in 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls, and is quickly becoming a dynasty. My definition of Dynasty would be winning 3 rings in a 5 year stretch…typically 3 of 4, but if you win 3+ over 4-5 years, that qualifies for me.

Most of you will be wondering my thoughts on Green Bay- and that’s fine- but the entire NFL is just as fun and exciting. So alas, here we go!

AFC				NFC
East				East
Buffalo	12	5		Philadelphia	14	3
New York	8	9		Dallas	12	5
Miami	8	9		New York	9	8
New England	7	10		Washington	4	13
North				North
Pittsburgh	12	5		Green Bay	11	6
Cincinnati	12	5		Detroit	10	7
Baltimore	11	6		Chicago	7	10
Cleveland	8	9		Minnesota	5	12
West				West
Kansas City	14	3		San Francisco	13	4
Denver	10	7		Seattle	8	9
Los Angeles	10	7		Los Angeles	5	12
Las Vegas	8	9		Arizona	2	15
South				South
Jacksonville	13	4		Tampa Bay	7	10
Indianapolis	6	11		New Orleans	6	11
Tennessee	4	13		Atlanta	6	11
Houston	4	13		Carolina	6	11
Playoffs
Kansas City	14	3	1	Philadelphia	14	3
Jacksonville	13	4	2	San Francisco	13	4
Pittsburgh	12	5	3	Green Bay	11	6
Buffalo	12	5	4	Tampa Bay	7	10
Cincinnati	12	5	5	Dallas	12	5
Baltimore	11	6	6	Detroit	10	7
Denver	10	7	7	New York	9	8

If you’d like to see how I got the Packers to 11-6, I’ll share here:

Week	Opponent	W/L
1	at Chicago	W
2	at Atlanta	W
3	v New Orleans	W
4	v Detroit	W
5	at Las Vegas	L
6	BYE
7	at Denver	L
8	v Minnesota	W
9	v LA Rams	W
10	at Pittsburgh	L
11	v LA Chargers	W
12	at Detroit	L
13	v Kansas City	L
14	at NY Giants	L
15	v Tampa Bay	W
16	at Carolina	W
17	at Minnesota	W
18	v Chicago	W

Wild Card

After the 2023 Regular Season plays out exactly like I’ve stated above, the Arizona Cardinals will have successfully tanked and “earned” the #1 overall pick, and the playoff matches will be set:

Broncos @ Jaguars
Ravens @ Steelers
Bengals @ Bills
Giants @ 49ers
Lions @ Packers
Cowboys @ Buccaneers

Divisional

The winners are bolded above, and the following matchups ensue:

Ravens @ Chiefs
Bills @ Jaguars
Cowboys @ Eagles
Packers @ 49ers

Championship Sunday

As usual, it pays to play at home in January as all 4 home teams advance to play in Championship Sunday. A repeat of the NFC title game, except SF’s QB, Brock Purdy, is able to throw a football and the outcome is drastically different, with San Francisco hoisting the George Halas trophy. Not much changes on the AFC side, with Pat Mahomes taking the Lamar Hunt trophy after hosting a 6th consecutive AFC Championship Game.

49ers @ Eagles
Jaguars @ Chiefs

It’ll be a rematch of Super Bowl LIV where the San Francisco 49ers will appear in their 8th Big Game and take of the dyNASTY of that what is Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Much like Mahomes’ other 2 victories, he will become damn near unstoppable in the 4th quarter and take over the game.

49ers 27
Chiefs 31

The offseason seems like it takes forever, while simultaneously seems to fly by. It likely has something to do with most of it occurring in Summer, and Wisconsin summers being in early July and end about now (early September). The Packers are entering their 105th season of football and history seems to have repeated itself once again. The changing of the tides at the most important position in all of sports; Quarterback.

Jordan Love threw 21 of 33 (63.6%), 183 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, with a passer rating of 109.8. He also had 4 rushes for 33 yards (8.3 yards/rush). That’s a solid stat line and essentially came to a game’s worth of play. From my perspective, stats tell one story, however the biggest item that caught my eye was his footwork. He lacked “happy feet” in the pocket. He didn’t look rushed and seemed quite deliberate in his play – akin to a seasoned vet.

A large reason for Love “looking the part” in preseason had to be his offensive line. According the Pro Football Focus, between LG Elgton Jenkins (#74), C Josh Myers (#71), RG Jon Runyan Jr. (#76), C/G Zach Tom (#50), T Yosh Nijman (#73), and T Rasheed Walker (#63) — a group that played a majority of starter snaps — combined for 305 pass-blocking snaps. The entire group gave up 2 QB pressures. Those two pressures were allowed by Walker, who’s coming into his own, and he also played the most snaps of the afore mentioned group, with 78. An almost inconceivable rate.

In fact, the Packers allowed only 1 sack the entire preseason. It was with 3rd string QB, Alex McGough, and even that was a sack that lost 0 yards. The Packers are built to win in the trenches, especially on offense, and control the game by using their biggest weapon – the backfield.

How Good Can Green Bay Be?

The Packers boasted a very solid preseason performance, and may have won all 3 games had the matchup with New England not been suspended due to Patriots’ CB Isaiah Bolden was carted off after being hit by a teammate in the 4th quarter of the 2nd preseason game.

Even following that game, Pro Football Focus had Green Bay ranked as the best offense AND defense of the entire preseason. While I like to reference PFF, they’re not the Bible, but it can give context rankings to things that lack context – ala preseason production. Would it be shocking if the Packers finished with one of the best records in the NFC? No. Would it be if they finished with one of the worst? Also no. Reason being, the Packers are once again loaded with talent, however they now have the youngest roster in the NFL – meaning there are going to be plenty of plays/games they could/should win and yet it’ll seem like inexperience let them down. Conversely, there will be tons of highlights from “unknown” players that will make this one of the most exciting seasons in quite some time.

Running Back Market – What’s Up?

NFL fans are finally waking up to the fact that teams don’t prioritize running backs, and some are even realizing the better the team the less likely they are to place premium $ on the position in total. This tweet has made the rounds across social media, but it’s very accurate – in the NFL, money must be allocated precisely and efficiently across the most productive positions and running back isn’t one of them, it’s just how it is and it has been for some time.

The % of salary committed to NFL backfields shows a trend. Some of the teams that commit the most, may be “good,” but aren’t realistic contenders to win the Vince Lombardi trophy.

As you can see, the Packers rank 12th in backfield spend. Meanwhile the reigning champs (and best team in the NFL over the past 4 years), Kansas City rank 25th. The premium of money allocated likely follows the positions that should be taken in the 1st round of the NFL Draft: QB; OL; DL; Edge; CB. Those are the most difficult positions to find and the most difficult to stock talent/production, so the best teams allocate money towards those positions and can fill in the other roster spots (WR, Safety, Inside LB, WR, TE, P, and K) on the cheap, typically.

The nice thing with Green Bay, while they’re in the top 50% of backfield spend, they arguably have one of, if not the, best backfield(s) in the NFL – and the way LaFleur runs his offense (which we’ll see this year without Captain Audible) is through the backfield and misdirection. Aaron Jones is an absolute weapon and “The Mayor of Door County,” A.J. Dillon, is a perfect compliment. This team is set up for the long run and assuming Jordan Love is the man, they could compete for the division as early as this season.

Much has been made on social media, both from fans and “experts” about Packers General Manager, Brian Gutekunst, passing on fan-favorite, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – Ohio St.) and taking, yet another defender. The claim is that it’s the wrong move for various reasons:

1. Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry “sucks” so why keep giving him talent? If that doesn’t answer itself, you may be passed helping.
2. Jordan Love has no experience, why not surround him with weapons to give him a chance? Again, when I judge Aaron Rodgers for only have 1 ring (which is almost entirely due to his defense), a QB’s best friend is a great offensive line, and a great defense. Weapons/Skill players are the most likely to develop.

How “Bad” is Joe Barry?

While this may not be the best judgement of a DC (Defensive Coordinator), I’ll play Devil’s Advocate, or at least offer a different perspective on viewing Green Bay’s DC. His track record is not impressive, hell its straight up bad. He served 2 years as the Redskins DC (2015 and 2016), ranking 17th and 19th in scoring, respectively. Since taking over in Green Bay, in 2021, the last two season’s he’s ranked 14th (2021) and 17th (2022).

I took a look at his track record of games in December and January to see if there’s been improvement. The verdict? Not really…well, maybe.

2022 (GB)	Pts	Yds
12/4/2022	19	409
12/19/2022	12	156
12/25/2022	20	376
1/1/2023	17	346
1/8/2023	20	323
Avg.	17.6	322.0
2021 (GB)
12/12/2021	30	347
12/19/2021	30	354
12/25/2021	22	408
1/2/2022	10	206
1/9/2022	37	404
1/22/2022	13	212
Avg.	23.7	321.8
2016 (Was)
12/4/2016	31	369
12/11/2016	22	383
12/19/2016	26	438
12/24/2016	21	458
1/1/2017	19	332
Avg.	23.8	396.0
2015 (Was)
12/7/2015	19	318
12/13/2017	21	377
12/20/2015	25	452
12/26/2015	24	398
1/3/2016	23	512
1/10/2016	35	346
Avg.	24.5	400.5
Total Avg.	22.5	360.2

The numbers seems to be consistent, except for this past season. Considering he’s only had 1 good year of QB play (Rodgers’ MVP in 2021), that’s what led to the playoffs, as well as Washington making the postseason in 2015 where Green Bay came in, fell down 11-0, early, then took over and won 35-18 after a huge goal line stand.

What’s interesting is this past season, 2022. The Packers got “hot” and it was actually due to their defense. Many may forget, it was hobbled, missing Rashan Gary and Eric Stokes, as well, but found a way to give up 17.6 points per game, which would’ve ranked them 2nd in scoring. Keep in mind that was with Minnesota putting up 14 in the 4th quarter of a game that was 41-3 with all the starters pulled.

In Joe Barry’s two elimination games (context: games where the Packers were eliminated), Green Bay gave up 20 points and 323 to the Lions in Week 18. Detroit ended up being the 5th scoring offense, averaging 26.6 points/game. The flip side, the Packers scored 16 against the 28th scoring defense, giving up an average of 25.5 points/game. Barry’s unit came through.

Shall I bring up the prior elimination game? The San Francisco 49ers had a total of -15 yards of offense with 6:41 left in the 1st half. Once they actually crossed midfield, they ended the drive by throwing an interception in the end zone. On the game, Barry’s unit relinquished 6 points and 212 yards. I’m not advocating for him to keep his job, or that he’s not the problem — I’m offering a different perspective into why using top draft picks on defense isn’t a bad idea because the DC is bad. (How’s that for a few double/triple negatives?)

Now Who to Keep an Eye On?

Rounds 2 and 3 are where teams truly separate themselves from the pack in terms of true value and talent-add. The Packers (as of 5:30 pm) hold the 42nd, 45th, and 78th overall selections tonight. There are quite a few players that could truly help the team that will be available.

Let this marinate for a minute, but if Hooker is available when the Packers are on the clock at 78, don’t be surprised if they snag him. Would he be an insurance plan for Love should he suck or get hurt? Probably not, at least that wouldn’t be the intention. He’s a promising QB and if he’s hurt, teams will shy away from him because he may not be 100% by the start of the season. You know how Green Bay has been great at finding QBs? They keep taking them. It’s that simple. Let’s say Jordan Love is the next Tom Brady, if Hooker is the Jimmy Garoppolo, how is that a bad thing? The Packers would then have a huge asset they could trade for immense value in the future. If Hooker doesn’t pan out…well, most draft picks don’t…

The Packers Will Select _____ in Rounds 2 & 3

I’m guessing the Packers will take best available, per usual, however that may not be a WR or a TE. However, there are plenty of talented WRs and TEs still on the board and the value in taking those at 42, 45, and 78 far outweigh taking one at 13. Don’t be shocked if they trade up (Green Bay will have 7 picks tomorrow for rounds 4-7) to snag an additional guy in Round 2.

The Tight Ends:

1. Michael Mayer – Notre Dame
2. Luke Musgrave – Oregon St.
3. Darnell Washington – Georgia
4. Sam LaPorta – Iowa

The Iowa pedigree, especially for tight ends is no joke. Remember the combine and hype for George Kittle? No, you don’t? That’s because no one (aside from Hawkeye Nation) did, because he was a 5th round draft pick and is now a certifiable stud. La Porta may be there in Round 3, but if GB takes him, there might be something there…

The Wide Receivers:

1. Jonathan Mingo – Ole Miss
2. Jayden Reed – Michigan St.
3. Jalin Hyatt – Tennessee
4. Cedric Tillman – Tennessee
5. Marvin Mims – Oklahoma

There are a ton, but these are a few. Hyatt was a game-breaker. For the common fan, but knowledgeable fan, he may be akin to Mecole Hardman – an all or nothing guy. Maybe a better version of MVS…

I’d list offensive lineman too, because they’re always a need – remember, Elgton Jenkins was a 2nd round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Aaron Rodgers Trade

The inevitable trade, that transpired over months, finally occurred on April 24th. For tonight’s purpose, the Packers swapped first round picks with the New York Jets, moving up from 15th to 13th. While it’s only a difference of 2 spots, the perspective is a ton of leverage against others. The Packers added the 13th, 42nd, and 207th picks in this year’s draft, while giving up the 170th – if you’re keeping score at home for this weekend’s draft.

What NOT to Draft in the 1st Round

There are “professional” mock drafters everywhere, showing the Packers taking either a Tight End, Wide Receiver, and even God forbid a Running Back. The enticement of the shiny object is far too much temptation for the average fan to endure. Many of those fans parade around with Twitter accounts and even their own web channels, and they claim to know who will be good and help this team. There are catastrophic flaws in all of that – not saying I’m immune to this, but my approach is far different – the main issue is that Rookies are never the difference-maker to winning a Super Bowl. The best rookies are typically highly drafted, thus ending up on an awful team that’s rebuilding. Also, rookies take quite a bit of time to truly contribute.

The other factor is value. Positions, like any team sport, range in values. We all know that QB is the most important position in the NFL. Based on pay scales the “most important” positions are QB, WR, Edge Rusher, OL, DT, CB, S, TE, RB, and LB. With wide receiver being slated 2nd, it’s considered important, yet it’s just not the case. Reasons being, every team carries 6+, meaning there are almost 200 wide receivers on active rosters each week. This means there are a ton of WRs in each draft, and needing a superstar is not necessary to win a title.

I chose an arbitrary year (2010), and of all of the wide receivers taken in the 1st round (50 of them) there were only 2 selected that eventually won the Super Bowl with the team that picked them. Those two?

1. Demaryius Thomas, drafted in 2010, won the Super Bowl in 2015.
2. Mike Evans, drafted in 2014, won the Super Bowl in 2020.

There’s a common theme with those two gentlemen…each was drafted then their team acquired an all-time great QB. Thomas was drafted by Denver and they signed Peyton Manning in 2012, similar to the Buccaneers drafting Mike Evans in 2014 and signing Tom Brady in 2020.

The point being, the Packers haven’t drafted a wide receiver in the 1st round since 2002, Javon Walker. Also, the missed opportunities of winning Super Bowls never came down to not having a wide receiver (yes, it was almost always QB play).

How About a Tight End?

Like Wide Receivers, Tight Ends can be found a-plenty in later rounds. There’s much ado about the Packers “need(ing) to surround Jordan Love with weapons to make him successful.” While weapons and massive talent doesn’t hurt, teams are built on the line of scrimmage. Skill players are plentiful and the weak ones still get massive playing time while bad Offensive or Defensive linemen get exposed, early and often. Just off the top my head, Rob Gronkowski was drafted in the 2nd round. Travis Kelce was drafted in the 3rd round, George Kittle? A 5th round draft pick. How about the Packers’ previous starter, “Bobby T”??? Oh, he was an undrafted free agent.

Teams that pick WR and/or TE are your typical bad teams. There’s a reason. Skill guys are fun to watch, but you can’t have a great defense without a solid D line and pass rush. If you have a great QB, protecting him with a solid O line allowing him to read the defense matters far more than some sweet skill players.

Who Will the Packers Draft?

There are a slew of players I’d love Green Bay to draft. They’re in the trenches. That list looks like this, in no particular order:

1. Peter Skoronski, OT – Northwestern
2. Paris Johnson, Jr., OT – Ohio St.
3. Lukas Van Ness, DL – Iowa
4. Joey Porter, Jr., CB – Penn St.

While it looks like a Big Ten love fest, there are a few others that I’d love to see Green Bay take, however, my guess is they’ll be off the board. Also, I’m terrible at guessing who Gutekunst will take, although I correctly selected Devonte Wyatt last year – Quay Walker was not on my radar, so we’ll see.

Season Predictions Lookback

According to my season predictions, the Packers fell short of my prediction of them falling short. All in all, that’s a good thing. Would rather have better draft capital than still not winning the Super Bowl. I had Green Bay finishing 12-5 and losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship game. Each team finished 8-9, with Tampa winning their division and losing to the 5th-seeded Dallas Cowboys.

Now each team is looking like they’re losing their starting Quarterbacks. Green Bay has Jordan Love in waiting while Tampa Bay has since signed Baker Mayfield. The writing is on the wall that Green Bay is moving on from Aaron Rodgers…more on that later.

The Chiefs winning is further validation that a QB is the true testament to winning, surrounding him with the best talent typically helps, but is not required – at least for truly great quarterbacks. The Chiefs lost their #1 wide receiver and had the 16th ranked scoring defense (giving up 21.7 points/game). The Packers lost their #1 wide receiver and had the 17th ranked scoring defense (giving up 21.8 points/game). Sure there are other factors, but it’s comical that Kansas City signing MVS – a player that Packer nation didn’t think was worth signing – was used as an argument to KC replacing their #1 wideout’s departure.

Rodgers

The ongoing, inevitable saga that is a HoF regular season QB disgruntled in Green Bay wanting to leave…is still on going. While the media went nuts for weeks, and by some accounts still is, nothing has actually transpired. Rodgers is still on Green Bay’s roster, the only difference is he’s made public what everyone already knew- so is that news?

While the hold up is about compensation, for someone that’s wanted him gone for over a decade, the compensation really matters, while it doesn’t matter at all simultaneously. It matters because every teams’ objective is to be the best they can, at all times, for as long as possible. However, Green Bay just ridding themselves of Rodgers and his contract would be a vast improvement…so, trading him, like Favre, will improve the team regardless. Now, if the Packers can garner a couple of picks, that will help years to come. The Favre trade allowed the Packers some assets to trade up and eventually draft Clay Matthews.

Everything Draft

It’s wild to speculate what draft pick(s) Green Bay will siphon from New York, if any, but assuming they get the 13th overall selection or a compilation of others, there’s a likelihood the Packers will us them for a trade of sorts. If the Packers somehow receive the 13th overall pick, I’d expect them to stay put and select the best player available, or there’s a chance if they like a lot of players on the board, they’ll trade that pick and pick the best available at 15.

Should Green Bay get a couple of later picks, there’s a chance they could use them to package and trade up to the mid-to-late 1st round or early-2nd round, where they can then take 2 players between 15 and 35. Those players could and should be a force for the next 5 years adding to an already stacked roster.

All this being said, Green Bay has all of the leverage, as long as they stay patient and just wait. The worst case scenario is they have Rodgers on contract and he has to make the choice to either return to 1265 Lombardi and compete for the starting job with Jordan Love, retire, or demand a trade to anywhere. Should he demand a trade- that will decrease Green Bay’s overall leverage, however would and could increase their leverage between the Jets and themselves because other teams will be more apt to make a play for the 39-year old quarterback.

Potential Draft Prospects

There are a few prospects that are intriguing, as this draft seems like another deep one, meaning there’s tons of value in having as many picks as possible vs. having a few really high draft picks. It also means that everyone may have a good draft, but if you have more picks than everyone, well…

I could list a lot of guys that may be there at 15 – while I don’t think Jalen Carter (DL- Georgia) will fall, if he’s close and the Packers have capital, it may be worth trading up as he seems to be the next Warren Sapp. If you can get a Hall of Fame Defensive Lineman, you can win a (single) Super Bowl with no Quarterback – i.e. Los Angeles Rams with Stafford (Aaron Donald); Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Brad Johnson (Warren Sapp).

There is one kid with which I’ve been intrigued and have since confided in a close friend who just happens to be a diehard Hawkeyes fan as well…that kid is Lukas Van Ness. One thing that rings true, in the NFL, one can never have enough Offensive Linemen, Defensive Linemen, or Edge Rushers. There’s always a need – and if you have 4 great edge rushers, there are plenty of packages where they can be used all at once, and even more importantly, if two are used simultaneously, the rotation is strong.

While he’s raw, he moves like JJ Watt did as a prospect entering the NFL. Couple that with Iowa’s strong NFL pedigree, there’s a potential Green Bay could have the strongest defensive front in football for the foreseeable future, featuring Kenny Clark, Rashan Gary, De’Vondre Campbell, and Quay Walker.

To close out, for those that desperately want a wide receiver with the 1st pick for Green Bay, there’s too much value in using a Round 1 pick on a WR. 1st round selections should be reserved for QBs, OL, DL, Edge Rushers, and CBs. All other positions can be addressed in rounds 2-7 with great value. If you’re deadset on a WR or TE in the first round just look at the players taken in years pass in the 1st round and their position. Then look at those WR or TE taken in the 1st round, the team that picked them, and how strong that team was at the time and following it…there’s a strong trend.