Waving BYE – to the Season?

Review: Packers 28; Bears 19~ the second half surge. With 6:09 left in the 2nd quarter, the Packers found themselves staring at a 16-3 deficit to the Chicago Bears. While making Justin Fields look like the Bears have found their QB of the future. However, after Rodgers scrambled and found rookie WR Christian Watson for a 14-yard TD with 0:17 left in the half, Green Bay relinquished just 3 points. There’s a direct correlation to the amount of points Chicago scores and Justin Fields’ rushing production. He had just 1 rush yard in the 2nd half and when forced to make throws, couldn’t stick the ball in the end zone. The same can be said for many other QBs in the league, but the constant holds, if you want to win in this league (Super Bowls), you’ll need a QB that can win with his arm.

Current Status~ as of today, Dec. 11, Green Bay holds the 11-seed. Meaning Seattle, Washington, Detroit, and Atlanta are all in between the Packers and the last seed of the playoffs. Those teams listed aren’t title contenders, hell all of them are going to have different starting QBs next season. With any luck, the same should hold true for Green Bay.

OffenseDefense
Rush12th30th
Pass16th5th
Total15th18th
Points23rd20th
Take15T-12th
Give17T-22nd
Diff.-2T-21st

As I’ve brought up in year’s passed, one of the best rankings for true team strength is Point Differential. The Packers are currently -39 which ranks them 26th in the NFL, which feels about right. Based on just record, they’re 22nd. The top 6 teams are about right:

  1. Dallas Cowboys +127
  2. Buffalo Bills +124
  3. Philadelphia Eagles +112
  4. San Francisco 49ers +92
  5. Kansas City Chiefs +80
  6. Cincinnati Bengals +57

The team that’s missing from this list is why, I believe, it’s a true testament to team strength; Minnesota Vikings +10 (11th). They’re 10-2 and are almost break-even on their point differential. Many may say they had a bad game and lost by 37, however, the teams listed in the top 6 haven’t…again, going back to Super Bowl winners since the conception of Free Agency (1993) point differential is a better indicator than Offensive and/or Defensive point or yard rankings. The average ranking of Super Bowl champs is 4th. There have only been 3 teams that have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy having ranked outside the top-10 in point differential (2007 Giants, 2011 Giants, and 2012 Ravens).

Rooting Scenarios?~ the only path for the playoffs, being a 4% chance, (if that’s your thing) would be for Green Bay to win-out and get a boat load of help. Beginning with the following winners in BOLD:

  1. Noon on FOX: Eagles @ Giants
  2. Noon on FOX: Vikings @ Lions
  3. 3:25pm on FOX: Buccaneers @ 49ers
  4. 3:25pm on FOX: Panthers @ Seahawks

Season: 6-7
Overall: 86-49

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