After digesting the draft and other off-season moves for a month, let’s take a look at the state of the Packers.

As of Sunday, May 28^th the Packers have finished their first week of OTAs (Organized Team Activities), the first true look at the rookies.  The Packers were able to move back, acquire one of the 6 prospects I highlighted in last month’s draft preview (CB Kevin King) and still gain the first pick of the 4^th round – to which they selected Vince Biegel, from Wisconsin.

Green Bay went defense with their first four selections: King CB; Jones S; Adams DT; Biegel OLB.  King, Jones, and Biegel all have a chance to get considerable playing time in the coming season, with King likely getting the starting job pushing highly talented, oft-injured Damarious Randall to the nickel spot (covering the slot receiver when in passing situations).  This is a monstrous year for Randall and Rollins, but more on that in the coming weeks.

King has been well-documented since being drafted, but the prospect I’m “high” on and interested in watching is Josh Jones, the Safety from North Carolina St.  The “expert’s” in-depth scouting report of Jones is that he’s a fierce hitter that’s possesses the size and speed to be a long time starter in the NFL.  The Packers haven’t featured a player, especially on defense, with his skill set and if he’s able to control his aggression he could be an impact player this defense has been lacking since Charles Woodson donned #21 (before he became old and slow).  Comparing Jones to Jabrill Peppers (the highest hyped safety) is very intriguing:

Test	Jones	Peppers
40 yard	4.41	4.46
Bench Press	20	19
Vertical Jump	37.5″	35.5″
Broad Jump	132″	128″

The last note on Jones: a story from OTAs this week brought a smile to my face.  The Packers, practicing in a helmet and sweats, saw Jones come down hard on WR Jeff Janis and light him up and rock him as if they were going 100% with pads!  I’m sure the coaches scolded Jones for potentially injuring Janis, and himself, being that no one is protected – but I love hearing about a defender bringing the pain as the Packers have lacked a player of that mentality (coupled with potential) for quite some time.  To say I’m excited would be fair, and only time will tell if Jones turns out to be better than Jabrill Peppers, let alone good…

The departure of RG TJ Lang to Detroit left a gaping hole on the offensive line, which GM Ted Thompson “addressed” slightly by signing veteran Guard Jahri Evans.  While with the Saints, Evans was revered as one of the top guards in the NFL for an extended period of time…and although his skills have dropped considerably, he still knows how to play the position and he can’t be worse than backup, Don Barclay.  By signing Evans the Packers weren’t in a position to having to spend a high pick on an offensive lineman, allowing them to focus on defense in a defensive-deep draft.

The other picks by the Packers addressed need with appropriate value of each prospect.  Montravious Adams, DT from Auburn, was valued as a 2^nd-3^rd round pick and shows superior athleticism for a big man, however the concern he didn’t try until his last year at college begging the question Is he going to get drafted and revert to laziness and not produce?  Either way he should have an opportunity to get into a regular rotation on the defensive line with Kenny Clark, Mike Daniels, Dean Lowry, and newly acquired Ricky Jean Francois.

Next, most everyone knows, Vince Biegel.  What he lacks in talent and skills he more than makes up for in character.  The older I get, the more I care about building a team of good guys that can play.  The scouting report states the same – Effort-based worker bee with edge-setting hands and attitude, but a lack of power that could lead to inconsistency in play.  Biegel’s football character is off-the-charts and he can be counted on to put the effort into improving in areas that need work.  He lacks individual rush talent but could be a good fit for teams utilizing exotic rush packages.  Average NFL ceiling but has the demeanor and traits of a potential special teams demon. – Lance Zierlein

 

The other picks consisted of 2 Wide Receivers, 3 Running Backs, and an Offensive Lineman (a tackle that will likely be developed into a Guard).  The WRs have talent and likely one of the two will turn into a solid player and produce (Yancey tore up a very good Badger defense when they matched up last fall) and Dupre was regarded has a potential 2^nd round talent, but without any quarterback at LSU couldn’t showcase his talent/production.

The HBs were taken out of pure numbers…meaning if you take 3 it’s likely one will turn out to be solid, if not two.  Many talk about Jamaal Williams from BYU.  Seems like a good kid, but isn’t necessarily fast and didn’t play vs. top talent at the college level.  He’ll have an ideal situation for a mid-late round pick of sitting behind a smart player (Ty Montgomery) and learning the position while being given the benefit of doubt.  In addition to Williams, the Packers selected Aaron Jones from UTEP.  Jones isn’t necessarily fast (4.56 40-yard), but did test extremely well in the 20-yard (2^nd) and 60-yard shuttles (3^rd).  Being a local kid (along with his twin brother) to El Paso, TX, Jones stayed local allowing him to play, improve, and ultimately improve to a point to get drafted.  Like Williams, Jones will be given the benefit of the doubt to play and produce.  The last HB taken by Green Bay, Devante Mays (Utah St.) is unheard of but woke up many scouts with is testing: 4.5 second 40-yard; 40.5” vertical.  Standing at 5’11” and 230lbs possessing that athleticism, he too will be given plenty of opportunities to show what he can do.

In closing, following the draft the Packers addressed each need and brought in potential playmakers on defense while adding depth to offense…will it be enough to change the Packers from being a perennial disappointment into accomplishing something?  Time will tell, but many other players will have to step up and play to their expected level (ahem Clay Matthews, Damarious Randall, Quinten Rollins, the entire offense in January) in order for me to expect otherwise.

Ahh yes, the NFL Draft is finally here!  A time for all Thompson haters to come out to complain about not picking the sexy prospect, or not drafting for obvious need, and so on and so on.  I’ll clarify again, not sure if it’s needed, I’m a huge fan of Ted Thompson’s philosophy, system, whatever you’d like to call it.  Building through the draft, paying your own guys and rarely paying big money for free agents is how one keeps your team from really ever getting in trouble.  This eliminates many factors that contribute to teams being unable to compete for various reasons.  I’m happy to elaborate, but in the interest of time, and getting to the point let’s move on.

The need for the Packers is on defense, or so it seems.  The last time Green Bay took the field they were outplayed in all 3 phases of the game.  The D couldn’t get a stop, the Offense couldn’t score a point, and one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL missed a 40 yard field goal in a dome.  While many believe the offense will be “tough to stop,” there’s always a need for improvement on each side of the ball.  Hence why drafting the best player available is rarely the wrong decision, that player will eventually help, and help greatly.  If you’re still reading, let’s get on with players the Packers could take (in the 1^st round), and why.

TJ Watt – OLB Wisconsin: Of course this seems like a homer pick, however he seems to be the best edge rusher that’ll be available by the time GB picks.  He’s played one season, produced at a high level and likely will only improve.  It’s also impossible to look past the genetics, which have fared well so far at the next level.

Kevin King – CB Washington: mostly unheard of due to playing in the PAC 12/west coast.  However, he’s a big corner (6’3” 200lbs) that can run (4.43 40-yard dash).  The scouts say he’s not as physical as his body shows he should be, however he was a solid defender on a solid defense, which was ranked in the top 4 all season.

Chidobe Awuzie – CB Colorado: like King, Colorado plays in the PAC 12 and they weren’t expected to be nearly as good as they were this year.  However, according to the scouts and pundits (which may mean nothing) he’s a 4-year starter at a big time program, is big (6’0” and 202lbs), fast (4.43), and should be selected in the late 20’s.

Forrest Lamp – G Western Kentucky: this pick would send nearly every Packer fan into a frenzy, he may be the best player available if still on the board.  He’s 6’4” 309lbs, fairly strong (34 reps at 225lbs) and was a Tackle in college.  Thompson doesn’t draft college guards, but tackles in college and some convert to guard.  Reason being is tackles are more athletic than guards, while guards are usually more of a mauler.  If you find a good athlete at tackle that’s strong, that could trend well in the NFL.  I still have high hopes for Jason Spriggs (the Packers moved up in the 2^nd round last year to select him), as he’s an incredible athlete that needs to add weight and see the field.  The signing of Jahri Evans yesterday may take Lamp off the board for Green Bay, but I still wouldn’t be shocked if the Packers selected him as he’s very highly thought of by all scouts, teams.

Jabrill Peppers – S Michigan: a pick that would have Packer fans pinching themselves because they can’t believe Ted chose a cool player.  Peppers was productive and dangerous in college, but I’m not sure where he’d play in the NFL.  With the proper coaching he could be a Safety, or act as a linebacker in Nickel and Dime packages (defenses set up to defend the pass).  I wouldn’t hate this pick, but I’d be really interested to see how he’s used and produces.

Christian McCaffery – HB/WR Stanford: after a decorated career at Stanford, he could be a difference-maker as a rookie.  It helps he comes with football genes (his father played WR with the Broncos in the 90’s) and he knows how to play football and what to do with it once in his hands, and more importantly what to do when he isn’t holding it.  Somehow, without working out or playing football McCaffery has shot up draft boards, but if he’s selected by Green Bay he wouldn’t be fitting a need as he’s a similar player to his former teammate, Ty Montgomery, but absolutely fits the bill and phrase of having as many good players isn’t a bad thing.

What will Ted do?  That’s really what everyone is trying to figure out.  My choice?  I’d love for him to find a trade partner and trade back accruing as many 2^nd – 4^th round picks as possible as it seems this draft is loaded with talent and having the most picks gives one the best shot at obtaining as much talent for the long haul.  Keep in mind the draft isn’t about the year at hand, but the next 3-10 years.  Fans are sick of not “going all in,” but the failure of the last 7 seasons by the Packers is a direct result of not being successful drafting years prior and on-field execution, or lack thereof.

My guess?  Probably King from Washington, Awuzie from Colorado, or Watt from Wisconsin.  Regardless of whom the Packers take, there’s something about the NFL Draft that is exciting and great for true football fans!  Have fun!

Year 2 of the David Stearns era begins!  Or at least the baseball season is!  Few have begged as hard for a rebuild of the Milwaukee Brewers as I have since 2013 and now that we’re in full swing (pun intended) it’s so refreshing!  Unlike my feelings toward the Packers (apathetic), my feelings towards the Brewers and expectations are in line!  With a major rebuild I’ll give 4-5 years before I expect the Window to Open.

Many publications rank the Brewers’ Farm System in the top 3.  That’s exciting and should be the goal of every small-market MLB team.  The Brewers should always be in the top 10, even if trading pieces to gain MLB-talent to “make a run.”  This means drafting well, extremely well as well as ditching old expiring talent for kids to supplement their farm.  The 2017 season will be viewed as important to the rebuild by seeing what some of the young talent can do in the minors and majors (Santana, Arcia, Villar, and more), but also to see how many additional pieces the Brewers trade to acquire young talent to continue their loading of the minor leagues.  Will Braun be traded?  Hopefully to add more kids to the system and continue the strength for years 2019-2025.  That should be the target for the Milwaukee Brewers to compete for the postseason and eventually a World Series.

Last season the Brewers had a pleasant surprise by Jonathan Villar and should continue to expect other young players to “shock” some fans.  This is expected as when acquiring young talent and keeping with the system.  Milwaukee won 73 games last season which is about where many thought they’d fall.  This season the win total isn’t the goal like I implied earlier, but to determine the young talent – who can assist and be a part of this franchise when the Window Opens.  Since I’m a sucker for predictions let’s go!

The National League was dominated by the Chicago Cubs all last season and I don’t expect much to change in 2017.  The San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, and Washington Nationals should also compete and have strong teams, but the Cubs were built (similar to the Brewers now) the right way and have the best GM in baseball with deep pockets.  They’re strong and are set to be the class of the MLB for quite some time.

The AL last year had a balance of power, ultimately resulting with the Cleveland Indians representing the American League and holding a 3 games to 1 lead over the Cubs in the World Series.  Cleveland should have another strong team this year, but expect Kansas City to respond to last year’s disappointing season with another good showing.  Boston had a good team last year and with a rededicated Panda, he could add a great bat to a lineup that’s already the envy of the AL.

These are pure guesses, but was close last year saying Cleveland was going to be good and everyone knew the Cubs were poised.  Sadly, as a Brewer fan, the Cubs seem like the well-deserved obvious favorite to win it all again.  Hopefully the Brewers will see the fruits of their labor in a few years as the Cubs are now.

Brewers Record: 77-85
NL Champion: Chicago Cubs
AL Champion: Boston Red Sox
WS Champion: Chicago Cubs

Apathy: the absence or suppression of passion, emotion, or excitement.  A lack of interest in or concern for things that others find moving or exciting.

My intent isn’t to depress, however it’s tough to be such a die-hard fan and not be apathetic towards the Packers…or any sports team in this state.  I’m now passed the point of associating blame and just want major change – think Definition of Insanity.

In the last 8 months, the Packers find themselves in a position to replacing 2 All-Pro Guards (Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang).  If you’ve followed along with my previous writing, or have known me for a while, you understand I’m a firm believer of great line play is the key to each side of the ball.  The better the OL the better the offense; the better the DL the better the defense.  The Packers possessed the 5^th ranked offensive line and the 9^th defensive front 7 in the NFL for the 2016 regular season (source: Pro Football Focus).  The Packers ranked 8^th in total offense and 22^nd in defense.  That shoots a hole in my theory, however the old adage holds true, if you can run the ball and stop the run it bodes well for your playoff fate.

The Packers used their 1^st round pick in 2016 on Kenny Clark, a defensive lineman with solid upside.  He was the youngest player in the draft last year and if he turns out to be a Pro Bowl caliber player, that will help this Packers’ defense, immensely over the next 10 years.  He was graded with a 68.0 by PFF this season and it looks to only rise from there.  I state this with the intent that the Packers have the option to go any route they want in this year’s draft.  However, while many think the secondary was a major issue last year, continuing with a great OL is what will drive the offense’s “success” and improving the defensive front will improve the overall defense and directly help the secondary.  The Falcons tore up the Packers’ defense, but the major difference in that game was Atlanta being able to generate pressure with 4 and the Packers getting none, regardless of how many were brought.  (Stop me if you’ve heard that before).

Stay tuned for the NFL Draft preview…I’ll wait for all the mock drafts and experts to predict whom will go where, and why.  Meanwhile the teams will continue to change until that week.  My stance is still to draft the best player available or trade back to accrue more picks.  I still believe that’s the best system in any sport to build the best team, the key is to not suck at drafting – which much has been left to desire in recent drafts for the Green Bay Packers.

Thanks for reading and expect more consistency from me now that the weather is turning and there will be more action from here on out!

Your favorite apathetic Packer fan.

Opening Statement– there’s no pretty way to slice it, the Packers were outcoached, out-prepared, outplayed, outmanned, outgunned, etc. in every aspect of the NFC Championship game.  I decided to attend the game while making a trip to visit family that lived nearby Atlanta, and somehow it looked more competitive on TV than in-person.

 Review – I’m not going to blame this on any one player, coach, side of the ball, this was the epitome of a Team Loss.  However, it wasn’t surprising to see Atlanta march down the field on the opening drive for a TD, it was disappointing to see the offense come up empty on the Packers’ opening possession.  Who knows if an opening game TD changes the outcome of the game, keeping the pressure on Atlanta.  Either way, it didn’t matter and the Falcons pounded the Packers by letting league-MVP, Matt Ryan, sit in the pocket with virtually zero pressure pick apart the inferior secondary.  I’ve been saying for a while now, as have others, how Clay Matthews is not only underperforming, but actually just down right bad.  For a player making $17-20M per year, your expected to generate consistent pass rush and make game-changing plays (see Von Miller, JJ Watt, etc.).  I believe there may be value for keeping #52, but at a much-reduced contract.  The defense has always been an issue in the playoffs, however unlike years passed (2015 playoff loss @ Arizona or 2014 playoff loss @ Seattle) the defense never game the offense an opportunity to take the lead since the coin toss.

It’s not worth looking at the ProFootballFocus ratings because only 1 player achieved a rating of 80+ (Mike Daniels).  That’s just how bad it was, and as stated above, there’s no 1 person to blame…just an overall organization failure.  Packer fans need to realize this is far too common for a proud franchise and fan base to keep experiencing.

Season in Review – to begin the season the Packers were in the top 3 (per Vegas) to hoist the Lombardi trophy at season’s end and came up short yet again.  This is the 6^th consecutive year of failure in “Titletown.”  It’s to the point where it’s embarrassing to call it that and to say this organization is “close to the Patriots” or “2^nd to only New England in success.”  The Packers’ consecutive playoff appearances remind me of the 1990’s Atlanta Braves.  Just a ton of talent that always dominated their division/regular season until the postseason rolled around and always choked.

Since QB is the focal point of football and its importance, credit (or blame) is just or not, I’m of the belief that perception is reality and for as much credit as QBs receive, they deserve as much blame for failure.  Knowing that the Packers have had Hall of Fame QB play since 1992, the Packers are one of 6 organizations to win the Super Bowl.  Again, this is not to associate blame towards Favre or Rodgers for not winning more, ‘nor to point fingers at Ron Wolf or Ted Thompson for not getting more talent to win, but to point out that the Packers really aren’t as successful as many of their fans believe.  Let’s take a look at the other teams that have had as much, if not more, success than Green Bay since ’92.

Patriots – 4
Cowboys – 3
Broncos – 3
Giants – 2
Steelers – 2
Ravens – 2
Packers – 2

So the Packers are 1 of 7 teams to have won two or more Super Bowls since 1992 (Favre’s arrival), otherwise known as having a “realistic shot” at winning.  That’s roughly about the top 20% of the league.  Hardly “highly successful.”  Especially since the expectations should to be the BEST.  This fan base, likely like many others (but that’s their issue, I’m here to bring attention to Packer nation) justifies failure like I’ve never seen.

You can’t expect to win every year.
Cleveland would sure kill to ‘fail’ like us.
The Patriots are an anomaly.

The excuses go on and on.  Why can’t we expect the Packers to win every year?  Why can’t we expect them to win the most of anyone else?  In business, life, it’s hard to succeed however that shouldn’t mean that you justify failure.  If you don’t perform at your job, or if you fail to meet your goals, you’ll likely be placed on review and ultimately fired/let go.  If your goal is to Not Get Fired, or Do Just Enough then this won’t resonate with you and we’ll likely not come to agree on much.

So on this Super Bowl Sunday, many will root against Tom Brady and the Pats and they’ll give the reason for doing so because they can’t stand them winning or that they cheat, etc.  I believe that those people just can’t handle that Tom Brady is the best ever (and it’s not close) along with Belicheck and what they’re doing can’t be “expected” and it’s just luck, blah blah blah.  I hope they win and am rooting for them because it’s amazing what an organization can do when the players all buy into the system and the system is consistently improving by any means necessary, while mostly building through the draft and developing those players – while bringing in outside help to augment areas of need in order to win.  The Falcons have a fast and fun team to watch, but on the flip side of the coin, there’s something about watching a consistent choker in the postseason have a ring….this may start up controversy and arguments (that is if anyone is still reading), but many may say I’m talking about Matt Ryan.

Am I?

 

Review – It’d be something else to see this Packers team put together a complete 60-minute performance.  The Wild Card game v the Giants left a lot to be desired whereas the 2^nd half in the Divisional round at Dallas was eerily similar.  Either way, the Packers found ways to close both of those games, adding to the confidence of Packer fans across the nation.

Dez Bryant ended up having a great game, however that came at what seemed to be the expense of Zeke not controlling the game, which was crucial.  Aaron Rodgers played well, missed a couple of throws but nailed, what I believe is, the most clutch throw of his career (35-yarder to Cook setting up Mason Crosby’s 51-yard game-winning Field Goal).

Preview – the Falcons bring a great offense, very similar to the Packers – they also possess a banged up and just plain BAD defense: as do the Packers.  I reviewed the Falcons entire season and it comes down to them having 1, yep just one, single impressive victory.  It came week 3 at Oakland.  Since then they’ve been feasting on bad teams, including the awful Seattle team that somehow finished the season with a winning record.

Packers 34
Falcons 24

*22-14, Yes I missed last week, but it ended up being a coin flip…this one I’m a bit more confident in.

Many think this will be the toughest match up yet…let’s take a look to see if that’s the case.

Review –that game was awesome, eh?  It was great to be at, too!  After underwhelming for the first 25 minutes, the Packers’ offense and mainly quarterback, Aaron Rodgers woke up and decided to destroy the talented Giants’ defense.  Well into the 2^nd quarter I looked up at the scoreboard and noted Green Bay had a whopping 7 total yards of offense.  From that point on the Packers amassed 399 yards in about 2.25 quarters.  That production is a tough standard to hold, even for the fans with the highest expectations – considering the Giants possess a great defense.

Losing Jordy Nelson could be a huge loss, considering he and #12 were finding their rhythm. Yes, the offense took off shortly after Nelson left with broken ribs, but keep in mind the Giants also lost a solid cornerback in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, essentially nullifying the Nelson injury (to which I believe was a legal hit, by the way).

The two players I highlighted to watch was the matchup of Giants superstar wideout Odell Beckham, Jr. vs. Packers undrafted 2^nd year player, Ladarius Gunter.  Gunter was burned on two plays resulting in zero yards…the first was the dropped TD, which prompted the thoughts and responses of the Miami boat trip!  And rightfully so!  That was a huge play in the game and who knows how that would’ve changed the dynamic.

PFF grades, with 8 players grading at an 80+:

MLB Jake Ryan 93.6
CB Damarious Randall 88.8
WR Randall Cobb 88.3
WR Davante Adams 83.8
RT Bryan Bulaga 83.1
QB Aaron Rodgers 81.9
RG TJ Lang 80.7
DL Mike Daniels 80.4

Preview – This is the best matchup of teams on the entire divisional round weekend.

Packers-                                               Dallas-
Offense: 8^th                                        Offense: 5^th  
Defense: 22^nd                                    Defense: 14^th

In their week 6 matchup the Packers’ offense was sputtering (that’s a compliment for how the QB was playing and the head coach was attempting to get him out of the rut)…however, there were 3 keys that determined the Cowboys throttling of the Packers at hallowed Lambeau Field.

1. 4 turnovers committed by Green Bay (all at awful times; 3 by Aaron Rodgers)
2. Packers’ D tried getting greedy and calling timeouts with 0:39 left in the 2^nd quarter to get the ball back, but ended up giving up a TD.
3. First possession of the 2^nd half, Rodgers threw an INT that no Packer fan has seen him throw before (he was tricked, and/or didn’t see the safety come into the route of Randall Cobb).

I believe I’ve said this before, but the team that controls the line of scrimmage controls the game.  The Packers have the 2^nd best offensive line in the NFL, unfortunately the Dallas Cowboys possess the best.  Dallas brings the 2^nd rush offense into this game vs. the Packers 8^th ranked rush defense, but that didn’t matter much when they racked up 191 yards on the ground.  The Packers will need to force rookie QB Dak Prescott to make plays if the Green & Gold want to win this game.  Well that, and have Aaron Rodgers play to the level he has the past 7 weeks.  In the end, the matchup to watch is the Packers’ OL v Dallas’ DL and vice versa.

Overall – I believe the Cowboys will try to take the ball out of Dak’s hands and ground and pound…successfully.  That will allow play action and the conservative Prescott to throw to an open target or run for yardage.  I’m not confident the Packers can generate 1-2 turnovers while holding the rush game enough.

Packers 27
Cowboys 30

*22-13 overall record.  Hopefully that record drops, meaning the Packers would be moving on to the NFC Championship game.*

There’s a chance to prove to many in Packer nation that the curse of Eli coming into Lambeau and defeating the Packers is over.  Let’s take a look as to why…

Review – After re-watching the game, it’s very apparent that not only Aaron Rodgers is playing great football, but the entire offense is on the same page and it’s nearly impossible to stop.  Whether Mike McCarthy was saving Ty Montgomery’s legs for the playoffs or he wanted to get Aaron Ripkowski more touches to get him used to handling the ball, it worked.  Both were fairly effective at producing to the amount asked by their head coach.  Preseason standout, Geronimo Allison (#81), had a breakout game.  Of course he benefitted from a hot/good quarterback, but he was able to gain separation and make the catches when given the opportunities.  He’s a bigger target than Randall Cobb (larger catch radius) and could be an X-factor moving forward.

Aside from the pointless Hail Mary to finish the game, the Packers held the 21^st overall offense to 17 points, in their own house.  I believe that bodes well for the Packers’ D hosting the Giants 25^th overall offense, and benefit from being in the friendly confines of Lambeau Field.

Det’s cornerback, Darius Slay and Def End, Ziggy Ansah were held essentially in check all game.  Rodgers made a Houdini-like play to escape a sack from Ansah on a 3^rd down and was able to convert.  Slay was tasked with covering Jordy Nelson for much of the night, and did fairly well, but still surrendered 6 receptions for 66 yards.

ProFootball Grades:
LG Lane Taylor – 84.1
S Micah Hyde – 83.5
QB Aaron Rodgers – 83.1
FS Morgan Burnett – 81.0
OLB Datone Jones – 80.9
CB Ladarius Gunter – 80.7

Preview – Both the Giants and Packers are far different teams than when they met in their week 5 matchup (won by Green Bay 23-16).  Ladarius Gunter (a player to watch, #36 of Green Bay) held Odell Beckham Jr. (a player to watch on NY) to 5 catches, 56 yards and 1TD.  The key in the game was the Packers’ pass rush, getting to Eli Manning 4 times and holding the Giants to 221 total yards.  Possibly the Packers’ defense’s finest performance of the season.

Getting consistent pressure on Eli and moving him off his spot will determine how effective the Giants’ offense is throughout the game.  Unlike Aaron Rodgers, Eli is not mobile ‘nor is he effective at throwing on the run.  By making him shuffle his feet, the Packers can control the game and force Eli into some turnovers.

Overall—I’ve battled back and forth all week trying to find an advantage the Packers have.  The Giants bring the 10^th overall defense matching up with the Packers 8^th offense.  Usually in the playoffs running the ball and playing good defense wins.  If that holds true, it doesn’t bode well for the Packers.  The Packers have the 8^th rush defense which should shut down the newly found run game of New York with rookie Paul Perkins.  Again, going back to needing a pass rush, mainly from Nick Perry because Clay Matthews is terrible, but has a chance to takeover these playoffs by showing up and producing like he did from 2009-2012.  If Clay and Perry can beat a below-avg Giants offensive line and control the line of scrimmage that should do the trick.

Prediction—all week I’ve been saying that 27 points will be the winning score, and I think that’s true still.  I also thought the Giants would be the team to come out on top…but no longer!!!

Giants 20
Packers 27

*21-13 overall record, and almost called the score last week J*

Since Rodgers’ Run the Table quote, the Packers have rallied off 5 in a row.  They’re halfway home.  For anyone that may say, “Nick, you know he was referring to the final 6 games in the regular season.”  My response is, “What’s the point of making the playoffs if you’re not going to win the Super Bowl?”  If this season doesn’t result in a Super Bowl victory, it will have been another failure and choke — how much more can we take?  I’m beginning to think that Packer fans are quite alright with postseason failure, so as long as they can say that other teams haven’t been in consecutive years like Green Bay.

Review – I was fortunate enough to attend the game, and see this display in person, what ended up being a warm Christmas Eve.  The Packers took the first drive, getting a few first downs, but ultimately resulting in a punt…however, after that it seems like Jacob Schum could’ve hit the showers.  Aaron Rodgers is playing to his expected level and has full control of this offense.  Also, the short-passing game has almost replaced the running game – which could be dangerous for opposing teams as the Packers have shown they can run the ball.  Ultimately, if everything is clicking, this team should be able to post 38-40+ points if need be.  The main concern, as has been since 2010’s title run, is the defense being able to hold up and get a stop late in the 4^th quarter.  That, and Rodgers playing to his level for the entire game, but more on that next week.

Last week I mentioned to keep an eye on Min’s WR Stefon Diggs.  Diggs had 4 catches, for 29 yards and a garbage-time TD.  Adam Thielen on the other hand had a career day, with over 200 yards and 2 TDs.  Again, the main concern is the defense giving up 12 fourth quarter points.  The other two players I mentioned to watch didn’t even play: Adrian Peterson and Randall Cobb.  So that’s easy.

To no one’s surprise, Aaron Rodgers led all players with a PFF grade of 93.1.  He was essentially perfect again, and that’s where he needs to be.  Here are the rest:

Clay Matthews 87.7
Jordy Nelson 86.1
Damarious Randall 80.2

Preview – There’s not much I really need to say…Detroit is well-known and everyone, by now, knows what’s on the line.  The Lions’ story has been told at nausea all year about how they’ve trailed in the 4^th quarter in 8 of their 9 wins.  This could set up to the Packers’ defense actually having to play and play well throughout the entire game and finish.

The last meeting between these two teams, the Packers jumped out to a 31-3 lead and saw Detroit score a quick TD before half, then cut it and finally lose 34-27.  This game could easily sway that way again, but if memory serves me right, Ziggy Ansah (#94, and Detroit’s best defensive player, Defensive End) missed that game.  Also, Detroit’s best cover man, Darius Slay (#23), is expected back this week and will be tasked with covering Jordy Nelson.  In the week 3 meeting, while covering Nelson, Slay allowed 3 grabs on 4 targets and a TD.

Overall— The Lions bring the 23^rd ranked offense and 15^th defense matching up against the Packers’ 10^th ranked O and 20^th D.  The Lions are in a tough spot as they’ve lost their last 2 and likely thought the whole 2^nd half of the season “Please don’t blow this.”  Well…the Lions have a chance to not be the Lions and win this game and potentially kick the Packers out of the postseason.  Either way, if Dallas can hang 42 points on Detroit with essentially nothing to play for, the Packers and Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t have any issue moving the ball and putting it in the end zone.  Many believe he’s the MVP, those “many” are Packer fans, and while he’s played great the last 5 games, where was this all of 2015 and 2016???

Around the League—the game to keep an eye on is the Giants @ Redskins on Fox at 325p.  If the Giants win, then both the Packers and Lions clinch a playoff spot.  That’s about it!  In an unlikely scenario, the Packers could clinch the 3 seed with a Seahawks loss, but win and the Packers will face the Giants next Sunday.

Packers 31
Lions 27

 *20-13 is the record now, hopefully we keep this train rolling.*

Should the Packers somehow win the Super Bowl, it can be argued…

Review – Pretty nerve-wracking of a game, but after consecutive 3 & out drives once the Bears completely seized momentum and eventually tied the game at 27 the Packers – most notably Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson – made a money play in money time to seal the victory.  As stated before, the mission was to get out of Chicago with a W and as healthy as possible.  It seems as though the mission was accomplished.

Chicago: HB Jordan Howard – 17 carries, 90 yards, 1 TD (13 yards was his longest carry).  WR Alshon Jeffrey – 6 receptions, 89 yards, 1 TD (longest play, 27 yards).  Last week I said Green Bay needed to keep Howard under 100 yards (accomplished) and Jeffrey out of the end zone (nope).  Once Jeffrey got going, the Packers almost had no answer except to bench Damarious Randall and take Quinton Rollins off Jeffrey and put bracketed coverage (man and zone along with safeties over the top and linebackers shading inside for protection) and the Bears never completed another pass after the switch, to Jeffrey.

Green Bay: QB Aaron Rodgers – 19/31 (61.3%), 252 yards, 0TD, 0INT, 87.0RAT.  Rodgers had a great game outside of a few throws (most notably the decision to dance in the pocket again, but only on the 2 drives that went 3 & out in the 4^th.  Made up for it by making a great toss to Jordy).  WR/HB Ty Montgomery – 16 carries, 162 yards, 2 TD, 2 receptions, 1 yard.  Monty had his best game of his short career.  Time will tell if he can truly carry the load of an NFL running back, but then again he may not have to.  Just the threat of him in the backfield, coupled with a red hot Rodgers could be enough to keep racking up wins.

Here’s a look at who Pro Football Focus rated as their top performing Packers from Week 15:

-LT Bakhtiari 87.8; SS Clinton-Dix 87.6; QB Rodgers 84.5; C Linsley 83.5; TE Cook 83.3; WR Nelson 82.5; RB Montgomery 80.0.  Others were rated, but if it’s not an 80+ I won’t list them.  However, it’s nice to see Bakhtiari continuously rank amongst the top O linemen.

Preview – Minnesota Vikings, 7-7.  After beginning the season 5-0 have now found themselves in a position of a must-win AND getting help to keep their playoff hopes alive.  The Vikes hold the 31^st (2^nd worst) offense in the NFL, but possess the 3^rd overall defense.  The showcase matchup will be Min’s 3^rd ranked pass D v GB’s 10^th rated pass offense.

Minnesota- WR Stefon Diggs.  Let’s see if the Packers are up to the challenge of not allowing another career day to this young, talented receiver out of Maryland.  That’s it.  He’s the main player to watch.  Adrian Peterson is a shell of himself, as most running backs are after the age of 30.  If you’re a Packer fan, be thankful the Vikings didn’t trade him when his value was its highest…they could’ve gotten a very nice return.  Instead they traded a 1^st and 4^th round pick for Sam Bradford…but I digress.

Green Bay- Randall Cobb.  Yep, another receiver. Cobb I don’t believe was even targeted last week in Chicago, but who’s to say that the Bears didn’t decide to just take him out of the game?

Overall— the key matchup is Min’s pass D v GB’s pass O.  The weather looks to be ideal (34 degrees with some overcast and minimal wind).  Again, winner of the turnover battle will likely win this game, however keeping Vikings pro bowl return man, Cordarrelle Patterson, from breaking big returns will be paramount.  Minnesota isn’t terrible, but it sure seems they’ve forgotten how to win and the Packers are in prime position to take full advantage.

Around the League— with Detroit losing last week to the Giants, Green Bay now controls their own destiny to win the division.  Should Green Bay stumble and lose at home, they will be rooting heavily for the Dallas Cowboys to upend the Lions on Monday Night Football.  However, with the Giants losing to the Eagles on Thursday Night Football, the Cowboys have nothing to play for because they now have clinched the 1 seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.  Meaning they may rest players or remove players from the game since its outcome is meaningless for Dallas.

Vikings 17
Packers 24

 I’m now 19-13 in “predicting” Packer outcomes.  Let’s hope this weird/crazy ride continues with a Christmas Eve W!