Vikings 24, Packers 10
Well, that looked a bit familiar, didn’t it? The game was fairly close throughout, but Green Bay only threatened to score while never really threatening to get back into the game. To remind everyone, the margin for error in the NFL is as close to 0 without being zero. 1 drop can kill a game, season, or possibly career. What about 6 drops? Jordan Love has not looked as consistently good as I thought he would/should, however, it’s beginning to look like the pass catchers may be at fault – or at least should take the majority of the blame. Whether it’s running into each other, or just not running routes altogether, this is beginning to showcase itself as an issue. Is it correctable? Maybe, reps will help the most as this is filed under the Growing Pains department.

The other glaring issue is offensive line play. I’ll pick on Josh Myers, because he went from avg. starter as a rookie to liability in every way this year. While I’m cherry-picking a play here and there, these essentially add up to sacks (drive-killers). These are worse than holding calls, because at least with penalties, you get to redo the down. This has really shown in A.J. Dillon’s production, or lack thereof. Dillon is a good back/player, but he’s not as dynamic as Jones, who’s able to make the OL look a bit better than they’ve been. Also, Jones hasn’t been really featured since week 1 in Chicago, which also was David Bakhtiari’s last game – he’s become an absolute valuable commodity at this point. Regardless of how this season finishes, look for Green Bay to use their 1st and/or 2nd pick on OL. If you know me, you’d know I’d be happy as a clam with using both picks in the trenches.

Minnesota absolutely annihilated Green Bay in Time of Possession…36:22 to 23:38. The penalties also killed the Packers (99 yards on 11 penalties), essentially giving Minnesota an entire field for free. Can’t have that. You do that, you’re not going to win. Rinse, wash, repeat. This is a young team and yes, that’s a reason, not an excuse. There will be more of these issues…ideally minimizing throughout the rest of the year, but the idea is they’ll be much better next year.

The Packers locked up arguably their best player, again (Jaire in May ’22), for years to come. People will compare him to the top pass rush earners in the league, as they should, however when Gary has been available, he’s been an absolute game-wrecker. This was a great move and for a decent price at that.

Speaking of Moves…

I never thought the Packer fan base would throw their arms up over a trade that, not only, made sense, but benefits the Packers in every way. Well, every way unless you wanted to try and scratch out some wins this season which had 0% chance at winning the Super Bowl. The goal is to have as many young and talented players all gelled together and developed at the commence of the 2025 season. Yes, the 2025 season. Fans are reacting as if the Patriots traded Tom Brady in 2016 (in the middle of him winning his 5th Super Bowl). This is a 28 year old cornerback, that will be 30 upon the “window opening,” and will likely have regressed and (likely and ideally) behind Eric Stokes on the depth chart. Loading up on draft picks is what Green Bay should be focused on, in addition to getting the kids live reps.

Love is progressing, however it’s tough to see. Former Packer great, Mike Wahle, does a good job breaking down a lot of things and here he shows what Love needs to do on a certain play that we’ve come accustomed to seeing Aaron Rodgers take all day.

Finally, to put a bow on the weekly Talking People Off the Ledge rant, here’s some great perspective on the Packers’ current situation which was due to kicking the can down the road to appease Aaron Rodgers while paying him a gargantuan contract TWICE!

Los Angeles Rams (3-5) @ (2-5) Green Bay Packers

The Rams may be without Matthew Stafford. The Packers have won the last 3 meetings between these two team, with one of those coming in the Divisional Round of the 2020 playoffs (Jan. 2021). Stafford lost his only start against the Packers since joining the Rams. Both teams have regressed since that game, significantly, and both are taking a different approach to their “rebuild.” Brett Rypien came in to relieve Stafford and put up stats like you’d expect a backup QB to do.

	LAR O	(rank)	vs.	GB D	(rank)
Rush	109.5	17th		132.0	26th
Pass	245.0	8th		207.1	11th
Total	354.5	9th		339.1	21st
Pts	21.9	14th		22.3	20th
	LAR D			GB O
Rush	115.1	20th		88.4	25th
Pass	218.5	13th		198.6	21st
Total	333.6	17th		287.0	25th
Pts	23.0	21st		20.0	21st
T/O	LAR			GB
Takeaways	6	T-29th		6	T-29th
Giveaways	8	T-6th		8	T-6th
Diff.	-2	T-18th		-2	T-18th

There are 3 items I’ll cover about the Rams.

1- Players to Watch:
#99 Aaron Donald— we all should know him by now. He’s a first ballot Hall of Famer, and while he’s been hurt as of late, he’s a game wrecker in every way imaginable. The Packers have done a solid job in years passed keeping Donald in check. They’ll need to do the same if they want to win this game.
#10 Cooper Kupp– also a should be household name, Kupp was a certifiable stud prior to getting injured last year. He won the WR triple crown in 2021 (Receptions, Yards, and Touchdowns). He’s still very capable of producing at a high level, so see Jaire to follow him a bit.
#17 Puka Nacua– the rookie 5th round pick from BYU is having an Offensive Rookie of the Year start to his career. He’s notched 795 yards on 61 receptions with 2 touchdowns. He’s a true 2nd option for the Rams, and could leverage the Packers’ young secondary. He’ll present a great challenge and opportunity for the Packers.
#89 Tyler Higbee– their starting Tight End is a solid safety blanket, and should Stafford not go, will likely be targeted (or at least designed) to get the ball. He’s able to get open and fall forward, as well as get solid YAC (yards after the catch).

2- Key Items:
Turnovers– the Rams and Packers have identical turnover stats, so whoever wins this matchup likely wins the Time of Possession, and ultimately the game.
Time of Possession– this is one of the most frustrating stats for Packer fans. The Rams avg 30:00 time of possession which ranks them dead center, at 16th. The Packers are only averaging holding the ball 27:11, which puts them at 29th…the defense has been OK, but have been on the field the 4th most in the NFL. They’re not innocent giving up a ton of 3rd and Longs, but the offense needs to hold the ball longer/better.

3- Rams strength of schedule:
Of their three wins, they beat a good Seattle team, in week 1, in Seattle. They also beat a couple of inferior teams in Indianapolis and Arizona. The Packers are staring 2-6 in the face should they not put together a solid outing. However, if Stafford is unable to play, this should give the Packers a good chance at winning.

Rams 23 (+3.0)
Packers 20

*I can’t pick Green Bay to win until they show me they can win, again. I still believe they’re capable of beating everyone, and losing to everyone.

Season: 3-4
Overall: 90-56

The season is going exactly how we should’ve thought it would go. A bunch of kids playing and showing some signs of production mixed in with a ton of frustration. What we’re learning is the opposition doesn’t matter. The Packers just need live reps, it’s moot on whom they’re facing.

Why am I optimistic? The goal this season was to get the kids reps, and the worst case scenario from this is they get them and turn out to be bad players. It doesn’t delay future moves to improve the team as the prudent thing to do is to let these kids play more than 6 games together before determining whether they’re “good” or “I’ve seen enough.” Former Packers QB, Kurt Benkert, also has done a great job recapping NFL games and scouting the Packers. Here’s one of quite a few of his takes on what’s going on, and it’s fixable, but still needs to be fixed.

Continuing with the optimism – Peter Bukowski has another great tweet with the above picture. Showing how feeble the Packers are in the 1st half and how great they are in the 2nd half. The QB’s stats reflect this as well. Either the kids improve (because, let’s face it, they can’t get much more inconsistent) and really take off, or things stay the same and we’ll have a better idea of who’s good or in need of replacing. At this point, picking games is as hard as ever, and I’m not sure how anyone can pick Green Bay to beat anyone, even though they’re capable of beating everyone.

Enter Minnesota…

While no single stat is the end all, be all (aside from Wins and Losses), here’s a decent look at current strength of the teams in the NFL to this point. Oddly enough, the Packers and Vikings seem to be about as identical as possible. Minnesota, who doesn’t have a rushing touchdown to date, it’s almost a sure bet they get at least 1 this week vs. the NFL’s 30th-ranked rush defense. Keep in mind, they just gave up 145 rush yards to the Broncos, who entered the week ranked 19th…this doesn’t bode well. Teams that can’t run the ball seem to still have the advantage against teams that can’t stop the run.

	Min O	(rank)	vs.	GB D	(rank)
Rush	74.9	30th		143.7	30th
Pass	293.9	3rd		211.5	8th
Total	368.8	11th		355.2	16th
Pts	21.6	18th		22.0	21st
	Min D			GB O
Rush	105.6	13th		90.8	24th
Pass	245.4	17th		212.8	23rd
Total	351.0	15th		303.6	26th
Pts	21.7	20th		21.7	17th
T/O	Min			GB
Takeaways	9	T-15th		5	T-27th
Giveaways	14	T-30th		7	T-9th
Diff.	-5	28th		-2	T-18th

Minnesota ranks 30th in rush offense, and just hung 452 yards against the San Francisco 49ers (now 8th-ranked defense in terms of yardage). The packers come in ranked 16th in yards, and will look to slow down the Vikings who are beginning to get on a roll (I don’t think anyone saw that win over San Fran coming), and just to get positive vibes going back in the locker room at 1265.

I’ve also been a big proponent of score differential (in all sports) as showing a team’s true strength, and I believe it to be true to both of these organizations as well.

The Vikings are 15th and Packers 16th in score differential in the league, and both seem to play close games. Minnesota’s opponents have been stronger, which would indicate they’re the better team, which I would agree since they’re far more experienced, especially at the QB position. Also, Kirk Cousin in Noon games is his best time slot…each team would greatly benefit from winning this game, but for different reasons. Green Bay for getting that good vibe again, meanwhile Minnesota is looking for the playoffs then to magically “get hot” and maybe even win something of significance for once in their franchise’s history.

As for a pure matchup, when Minnesota is on offense, their passing attack is 3rd while Green Bay’s pass defense is 8th…while Minnesota struggles to run the ball, Green Bay obviously more than struggles to stop the rush. Similarly while Green Bay has the ball, all the matchups stats are alike – what Green Bay must do to win the game is win the turnover battle (and time of possession), man this is like beating a dead horse. I don’t think that’s the case as we’ve seen the Packers have had 4 games come down to the last possession, coming out on top once in those occasions.

Vikings 31 (-1.5)
Packers 25

Season: 2-4
Overall: 89-56

If you haven’t noticed, yet. The titles of these posts are from The Offspring…figured that was fitting.

Green Bay hasn’t won in 4 weeks. It’s also seemed that long. For the billionth time, the Packers are going through a Youth Movement, which is the best kind of “rebuild” a team can take. It’s the best method to set an organization up for long-term success. Meaning, this team is going to surprise you in every manner possible. They’re going to look bad in departments (i.e. offense vs. bad D, etc.) all season long. Green Bay may look awful on offense vs. the NFL’s worst defense (Denver) this week, but could also beat Kansas City and shut down Patty Mahomes, so who knows…which is the fun part.

How bad is Denver? They’re bad, almost Chicago bad (they were losing to Chicago 28-7 with 15:14 left in the game, before coming back and beating the Bears).

	GB O	(rank)	vs.	Den D	(rank)
Rush	81.6	27th		172.3	32nd
Pass	200.0	21st		268.0	30th
Total	281.6	28th		440.3	32nd
Pts	22.6	13th		33.3	32nd
	GB D			Den O
Rush	143.4	28th		106.0	19th
Pass	194.4	9th		200.3	20th
Total	337.8	17th		306.3	21st
Pts	22.6	22nd		21.5	17th
T/O	GB			Den
Takeaways	5	T-22nd		6	T-20th
Giveaways	6	T-7th		11	T-27th
Diff.	(1)	T-17th		(5)	26th

These are well-below average teams matching up on Sunday. Here’s the warning I’ll issue, which fans won’t take in, because they’re fans — the Broncos have the worst defense in the NFL and the Packers have an opportunity to “get things righted,” however, the issues with youth is youth doesn’t care about the opponent, they just are what they are. Could Green Bay struggle to run the ball against the worst run defense in the league? Yes. Could they struggle to get on track in the passing game against the 3rd-worst pass defense team in the league? Also yes.

Keep in mind, we’re entering game 6 of 34 (17.6%) in the youth movement, or rebuild if you’d like (but they are different). We are far from knowing what this roster is capable of and even what Jordan Love truly is, however he’s shown signs of being able to do the hardest things (coming back from down 17-0 in the 4th quarter against a good Defense should be enough evidence for everyone to give Love enough leash for 2 full seasons).

The Packers’ pass D might be a bit of a mirage too as teams have had the lead over Green Bay a lot and run the ball, which is also their weakness. Get teams into passing situations, that’s where Green Bay can get off the field and generate turnovers.

I’d like to see the Packers get their season turnover margin back into the black, and improve the time of possession rank (sitting at 29th averaging only 27:01/game). Denver is worse, ranking 31st in that department.

Here are jsonline’s predictions…

Packers 27 (-1.0)
Broncos 21

Season: 2-3
Overall: 89-55

I’m not sure how many times I can reiterate things, however it’s far easier to say something than it is to accomplish something…

Blocking Maxx Crosby is inherently harder than the idea of just blocking him. Also, the Packers have the better team/roster, however the same two things I’ve harped on forever, typically dictate the outcome of the game: turnover differential; time of possession.

Green Bay held Las Vegas to 96 yards rushing on 29 attempts (3.3 yards/rush), which is Mission Accomplished. Green Bay also accrued over 100 yards on the ground themselves (110 yards on 25 rush attempts). The killer? Turnovers. Which ultimately led to a better Time of Possession for Las Vegas as well. The Packers lost the turnover battle 3-to-1, with the last being the most crucial, obviously. The silver lining (see what I did there?) for Green Bay is they won the Points off Turnovers battle, which is another key stat.

	GB	LV
ToP	27:26	32:34
Turnovers	3	1
Pts off TOs	7	3

Yes, these are growing pains. Growth, in this context, isn’t linear…it’ll look much like an ascending stock – tons of ups and downs. Does the opponent matter? Actually, for the youth movement, far less than you’d think. Actually, the opponent may be meaningless in the sense that, I wouldn’t be shocked if Green Bay loses to Denver (who’s terrible), and in a couple of months beats Kansas City. This team has that much talent, and the only thing they possess more than talent is youth. It’s quite frustrating.

There are plenty of great follows on X (twitter) to see what’s been going on with the Packers and their surprise liability, the offensive line. @Peter_Bukowski is a solid follow, and here’s just one tweet that exemplifies the main issue holding up the Packers from “looking better.”

The man pictured above, C Josh Myers (#71) has gone from “decent rookie” to an absolute problem. He constantly lets up pressure, which is the worst as he’s literally the Center of the Line! He must either improve, dramatically (both by a lot and in terms of time) or be replaced. Not only have Super Star D-linemen looked amazing in back to back weeks vs this unit, those superstar players should be the focal point, in which previous Packer O-lines have handled fairly well. However, Hutch and Crosby have taken over each of the past 2 games. Hell, even Malcolm Koonce looked like prime George Koonce (no relation, from my research at least). All in all, just a bad performance, however, the optimist in me tells me there will be more of these games this season, and the kids will be able to learn from them just by experiencing them…as long as they’re playing.

To quote Dave Portnoy, “It’s time for an emergency press conference.” With the awful outing in Las Vegas, the fans – not even the media – have jumped all over Jordan Love. This comes less than a month after many of the same fans have said “The Packers did it again!” Now, almost by definition, fans are supposed to overreact, and a vast majority do. Also, a vast majority are wrong, almost always. I’m not immune to it either, however, the 2023 campaign is about one thing and one thing only; repetitions for the kids.

The Packers have the youngest team. As stated before, they have the youngest team in the NFL in the last 6 seasons. Goal #1 is to see what you have in Jordan Love. Yes he’s sat for 3 years behind Aaron, however there’s nothing that can replicate live bullets. He’s shown promise, quite a bit, and his production has waned as the offensive line play has as well as Aaron Jones’ availability has too. I’ve been advocating for Love to get at least a full season (ideally 2 full seasons) before moving on. That doesn’t mean the Packers can’t take a QB in next April’s draft, but it should allow Green Bay to fully understand what Jordan Love is.

Lastly, this was always going to be the case, growing pains. Many jump to the “he’s regressing, and it’s regressing against worst opposition.” They also make the case that these “pains” aren’t growth, they’re the same issues. “Is it coaching?” Again, without being in the meetings and on the sidelines in the play call, tough to say. However, the one way to guarantee getting an answer is allowing time to pass, roughly 30-34 games. Regardless of surrounding cast, we should have an idea whether Love will be good enough.

Let’s Play A Game

Here’s a chart of QB’s through their first 5 starts after taking the helm for their respective teams. There’s no right answer, however, I figured this is good for conversational stuff. Message who you’d like to have after their first 5 games and I’ll give you the answer as to who it is…

	QB1	QB2	Love	QB4	QB5
W/L	1-4	3-2	2-3	2-3	2-3
Comp	93	99	90	109	103
Att	169	159	162	169	163
Comp %	55.03%	62.26%	55.56%	64.50%	63.19%
Yards	1,129	1,023	1,083	1,135	1,274
TD	4	7	8	6	9
INT	12	4	6	2	4
Rating	54.1	85.0	77.3	90.7	95.5

A familiar site from Green Bay’s humiliating 34-20 loss at the paws of the Detroit Lions…a 4th consecutive loss to the Lions. Detroit racked up 401 total yards on 73 plays, for an astonishing 5.5 yards/play. 211 of those 401 yards (53%) came on the ground. Something that needs to be corrected now, and moving forward if the Green Bay Packers want to ever think about contending for a title in the next 3 years.

Detroit dominated in the trenches, on both sides of the ball. As mentioned above, rushing for over 200 yards is almost a guaranteed victory statistic, their defense sacked Jordan Love 5 times for 43 yards. That’s essentially 2 full drives worth and an entire field position flip’s worth of issues. There was not one facet of the game where the Packers were the better team – not one. That being said, the optimist in me will say that Jordan Love never looked flustered, didn’t give up, and didn’t get on his teammates, and kept fighting. While that should be the bare minimum any athlete gives (let alone a professional athlete), it needs to be stated because more often than not the give-up tolerance in these players today is far lower than in year’s passed.

Dan Campbell has Detroit on the right track. They opened the season in Arrowhead at the defending champs, and won. They’re an OT home loss to Seattle away from being undefeated and near the ranks with the 49ers and Eagles for the cream of the crop in the NFC…maybe the entire NFL. The Lions are about 1.5 years ahead of the Packers, as both franchises seem to be on the right track and are doing things the right way — building for the future through youth.

Sin City- I believe the Packers arrived yesterday, and hopefully there wasn’t a Sunday Funday experience, as this is another great opportunity for this young Packers team to improve. These teams are about as evenly matched (on paper) as can be. The Raiders are 1-3, opening the season with a close win in Denver to the awful Broncos, then have since lost three in a row. Former Packers Pro Bowl wideout, Davante Adams, has recently voices his frustrations with the Raiders. However, if he’s searching for whom to blame, a mirror would suffice. If he’s a full go tonight, it’ll be great to watch him go man-on-man (hopefully Joe Barry doesn’t play zone) with the league’s best corner, Jaire Alexander – who’s looking to make his return tonight.

Green Bay will have no better opportunity to improve it’s rush defense rank than it will tonight. Monday Night Football will feature the two worst rush offenses in the NFL. While both teams feature great backfields – even though Aaron Jones isn’t playing, it’s something amiss as to why the Packers avg. fewer than 75 yards on the ground per game and Las Vegas can’t even average 70! Both defenses should be gearing up to stop the pass as the ground games should keep themselves in check, in theory.

	GB Off.	(rank)	vs.	LV Def.		(rank)
Rush	74.5	31st		134.3	25th
Pass	206.3	18th		202.6	12th
Total	280.8	29th		337.0	16th
Pts	25.0	10th		25.3	25th
	GB Def.			LV Off.
Rush	155.3	31st		65.3	32nd
Pass	197.3	10th		216.5	14th
Total	352.5	21st		281.8	28th
Pts	24.0	23rd		15.5	30th
T/O	GB			LV
Takeaways	4	T-22nd		1	32nd
Giveaways	3	T-5th		10	T-28th
Diff.	1	T-14th		(9)	T-31st

Where the Packers can scratch out a victory will be the distinct advantage in turnover differential. Green Bay does a great job of holding onto the ball…only having Jordan Love’s 3 interceptions against them all year, whereas Las Vegas is abysmal in both departments of taking the ball away and holding onto it.

Another indicator as to how evenly matched these teams are is time of possession. The Raiders are 23rd in the NFL averaging 27:39 time of possession per game, while Green Bay is ranks 29th averaging 26:54. If Aaron Jones is 100% (unlike last week), look for Matt LaFleur to run early and often to dictate the trench-play as well as wear down that front of Las Vegas by the 4th quarter. Even if the run game isn’t working, it does wear the pass rush and sets up play action, if you’re committed to it.

Lastly, the Raiders have 3 outstanding players. Everyone has heard of Davante Adams. Most are familiar with Josh Jacobs, just from fantasy alone. The Packers need to keep Jacobs in check and if he’s a full GO, holding him to <100 yards would be a huge step in the right direction. The 3rd player, may be their best, Defensive End Maxx Crosby (#98). This guy is a beast, and can disrupt a game much like Aiden Hutchinson of the Lions. Crosby can generate pressure much alike Rashan Gary, and after the “performance” of the Packers’ OL last week………………………………

I’m going to go with the homer pick, because why not?

Packers 31 (+2)
Raiders 26

Season: 2-2
Overall: 89-54

Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers had a 4-quarter stretch that resembled an outmatched high school team playing a state’s best team. See below:

Quarter	Plays	Yards	Points
W2Q4	10	7	0
W3Q1	11	35	0
W3Q2	7	9	0
W3Q3	17	79	0
Totals	45	130	0

The fact the Packers actually had a chance to win both games with 4 quarters (shown above) in an 8-quarter stretch is quite promising. It’s also very math-like that the Packers outside of those abysmal 4 quarters put up 434 yards over 73 plays and 42 points in the other 4. So it makes a ton of sense that they’d go 1-1 as both games could’ve been either wins or losses, ahh the fun-struggle of following the NFL. As awesome as this comeback was, and it was a season-opener for the ages, there’s little time to celebrate as the biggest game of the year is here.

To the shock of many of you, not to ones who read here (insert smirking emoji), the 2-best teams in the division square off on a nationally televised game which will give Jordan Love and the baby Packers another opportunity to showcase their ability – as well as another dynamic learning experience (short week, rivalry game, night game, etc.).

Another major issue…these injuries sure have racked up and it’s early. Whether it’s turf-related, or soft tissue things (hamstrings), they’re all frustrating. While a great guy, David Bakhtiari’s career in Green Bay seems to have met it’s end. With the Packers ability to build offensive line, it’s best to keep him out and hold him to the playoffs or the playoff push and get the most out of him in the most important games down the stretch. In these games (as almost every game) it comes to QB-play and winning in the trenches…Detroit has one of the best OL’s in the NFL, but Green Bay showed last week they all need to be accounted for. Rashan Gary has the highest win rate of all pass-rushers, his only limitation is his pitch-count, but if he plays all passing downs, he’s a problem, big problem. Rookie Lukas Van Ness has also shown to be the 2nd best/most-effective pass rusher of all rookies (Jalen Carter). Between Gary, LVN, and Kenny Clark, if they win the fight on the line, that will allow Jordan Love to do what Jordan Love does…

Matchup~

	Det off.	(rank)	vs.	GB def.	(rank)
Rush	111.7	11		136.7	27
Pass	269.7	7		199.7	10
Total	381.3	8		336.3	15
Pts	24.0	T-12		20.7	T-13
	Det def.			GB off.
Rush	72.0	5		90.3	23
Pass	225.3	19		207.3	19
Total	297.3	11		297.7	22
Pts	21.0	15		26.7	8
T/O
Takeaways	2	T-22nd		3	T-19th
Giveaways	5	T-21st		1	T-1st
Diff.	(3)	T-24th		2	T-9th

While Detroit is on offense, they have the distinct advantage in each category. However, the rank of scoring is very even, so that tells me Green Bay’s able to bend and not break (outside of the 4th quarter vs Atlanta). Adversely, when Green Bay has the ball, they’re able to find ways to score. The Packers’ rush offense could really benefit from the return of Aaron Jones as Detroit boasts a top-5 team vs. the run, and we know that time of possession is key, almost as key as turnovers, which Green Bay only has 1 (knock on wood).

• Detroit 32:07 (7th)
• Green Bay 28:32 (23rd)

Detroit is better in every category other than scoring and turnovers…mmm, weird how that works. The main matchups are going to be how Green Bay deals with Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR #14) (especially if Jaire Alexander doesn’t play) and if they can keep Aiden Hutchinson (#97) from wrecking the game altogether.

Lions 23 (-1.5)
Packers 21

My prediction record….
Season: 1-2
Overall: 88-54

The Packers had the game in control for a little over 48 minutes. Atlanta kept with the run, thus wearing down the defense, and Green Bay’s offense couldn’t gain a first down and that was enough to open the flood gates. With a first year starter at QB, and the youngest roster the NFL has seen in 6 years, these types of games are going to occur. It’s clear as day the Packers have talent scattered all over the field – however, they’re lacking experience and this is how they get it. Buckle up, there are going to be 3-5 more games like this this season alone.

Speaking of the Packers’ offense, Jordan Love compiled a decent game again, proving enough to almost anyone with two working eyes that he’s capable of being good. Now he must string this together for an entire season to garner an extension (I fully expect him to). While he didn’t seem rattled in the 4th quarter, his production – or lack thereof – would say otherwise. The Packers ran 10 plays for a total of 7 yards in the entire fourth quarter, and a defense that held the Falcons in check, began to break. Green Bay ended up allowing 211 rushing yards the Packers lost the time of possession 36:15 to 23:45. Those numbers will need to improve should the Green & Gold have visions of making a playoff run.

Another bright spot, rookie WR Jayden Reed arrived on the scene with his first 2 TDs. As mentioned above, Jordan Love continued on with another 3 TDs and 0 INTs (thanks to a dropped INT late). He’ll need to increase his completion percentage. Love ranks first in QB Rating (118.8), and T-1st in TDs (6), but 30th in completion % (55.8%). It’s not that he’s inaccurate or missing open guys, but an overall timing situation and rhythm with the rest of the offense. It’s correctable, but reps are needed. The real disappointment was A.J. Dillon. He had another opportunity to shine and as he has in the past, he let down the team/fans. He’s produced in the past, but this was a lot of slipping, not keeping his feet and missing open holes and hitting others at the wrong time. I’ve been a long defender of Dillon and loved him as a pick, but this is likely his last season in Green Bay as HBs are easily replaceable with mid-late round draft picks.

(2-0) New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers (1-1)

The Saints have won both games by the closest of margins – they’ve done so with solid/aggressive defensive play. There’s a good article and point brought up by Jeff Duncan. The point he raises is how New Orleans corners are very handsy and aggressive with pass catchers, and while they get called from time to time for pass interference or illegal contact, they get away with a ton too, which forces the offense into tough situations or turnovers. It also allows their pass rushers more time to get to the quarterback as the receivers take more time to get into their route and location by fighting through the defenders. Don’t think the Saints aren’t aware, they know, they know the opponent knows, and still are committed to this play. This may be the game where Love ends his turnover-less streak, but there’s good chance that he takes a few more deep shots in hopes to either connect or get a call or two to really pick up some chunk yards.

Matchup~

	NO off.	(rank)	vs.	GB def.	(rank)
Rush	101.5	17		166.5	30
Pass	244.5	8		212.0	17
Total	346.0	10		378.5	27
Pts	18.0	25		22.5	14
	NO def.			GB off.
Rush	102.0	14		88.0	24
Pass	160.0	7		188.5	23
Total	262.0	5		276.5	25
Pts	16.0	T-5		31.0	2
T/O
Takeaways	4	T-7th		3	T-12th
Giveaways	3	T-15th		0	T-1st
Diff.	1	T-11th		3	T-5th

The Saints, based on yardages, are a very strong and balanced team. For some reason, they just don’t score points. They do a great job of limiting points, as mentioned above, those quarterbacks they faced (Tannehill in week 1, and rookie Bryce Young in week 2), struggled. Tannehill threw 3 interceptions which New Orleans scored 10 points off of those leading them to a 1-point victory. The following week, the rookie Young was pedestrian and was shut down for essentially the entire game until a late touchdown (Carolina’s first of the game) came with 1:58 left.

Love will need to continue to take care of the football and keep his defense off the field, while scoring points. Where the Packers can benefit is they have the best pass blocking unit in the NFL so far on this young season, and the Saints need time to get to the quarterback, so there should be some opportunities to get chunk plays, but Jordan MUST convert them, otherwise it’ll be a repeat of the 4th quarter last week and New Orleans’ defensive backs will continue to gain confidence and could shut down the Packers receiving corps.

It doesn’t help that Green Bay may be without their 4 best offensive players: Bakhtiari; Jenkins; Watson; Jones. To compound the issue, Green Bays’ BEST overall player, Jaire Alexander, may miss the game too. That’s essentially 5 of their top 8 players missing in action…possibly.

All in all, it seems to be a pretty even matchup, as New Orleans has a bunch of veterans that have experience, but Green Bay has the talent and speed to compete with anyone on any day, hence why they’re favored. Plus it’s the home opener, a great opportunity to start the season strong and get out the gate at 2-1.

Saints 27 (+1)
Packers 24

Season: 1-1
Overall: 88-53

New year, new Quarterback, same ‘ol Bears. It shouldn’t come as a shock that the NFL’s worst team in 2022, got worse over the off-season, ended up getting…worse. While Chicago isn’t great, despite what their fan base chirped about for months, the Packers did what they were supposed to do, as did Jordan Love. Love ran the offense, not perfectly, but executed well enough to put up 31 points. What separated Love’s performance from a-manyd expectations, was his production on money downs (3rd & 4th downs). Love was a perfect 158.3 QB rating on those downs, and that was the difference in the entire game.

Following the 1st drive, where the Packers scored a touchdown on 11 plays, they went to running backs 7 (63.6%) of those plays. On drive 2, 3, and 4 of the game, the Packers got away from the rushing attack, running 12 plays only accruing 33 yards. Green Bay ended up sticking with the rush attack, even though it didn’t produce a ton. Of the 60 plays Green Bay ran in the game, the Packers rushed it 32 (53%) times, which is a great balance. By doing so, the Packers only had 92 yards on the ground, for a measley average of 2.9 yards/rush, but they controlled the game throughout, and it opened the passing game for Jordan Love. Jones and Dillon combined for 26 touches and 163 total yards (6.3 yards/touch), with 2 touchdowns. It was mostly Showtime’s production, but continuing to feed the running backs is the name of the game for the Packers, should they want to be successful this year.

In addition to Love, Jones, and the offense doing its part – Quay Walker and the defense brought their lunch pail too. The D gave up 20 points, took it away twice, and scored on the lone interception of the ballgame. The Packers controlled the line of scrimmage, which dictated the outcome of the game. Keep that up all year and this team could be dangerous.

Has Atlanta Rebuilt to a Contender?

Now Green Bay travels to one of the coolest stadiums in the NFL, Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Located in the heart of downtown Atlanta, it does have the new field turf, which has (correctly) received much backlash for the Aaron Rodgers achilles injury, as well as the huge uptick in injuries occurring on that type of field.

The Falcons are a different team than Chicago, and they’re a bit better. Atlanta did, however, give up 154 yards rushing which Green Bay should capitalize on with their likely-continued ground attack. Look for the offense to run (pun intended) through Showtime (Aaron Jones) and to make things easier – again – for Jordan Love in the passing game. This is the best recipe for any QB at any level; balance.

There are a few players to watch when Atlanta rocks their throwbacks…uber-athletic TE Kyle Pitts (#8), the highest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson (#7), and WR Drake London (#5).

The Packers should benefit from MLB Quay Walker passing concussion protocol and being available to help cover all 3 of these guys – especially Bijon and Pitts. Should Green Bay generate pressure and get QB Desmond Ridder to rush a few throws and believe he’s under more duress during the game than he actually is, while that’s great to get vs. all opposing QBs, he really seems to struggle and it could create a looooong day in Hotlanta.

Packers 27 (+1.5)
Falcons 24

Season: 1-0
Overall: 88-52

Considering this is the first Quarterback not named Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers to start a week 1 game for the Green Bay Packers since September 6th, 1992 – we’re in for something. The news story is Jordan Love, and should be, however the expectations are the unknown (also as they should be?).

Considering this is the first Quarterback not named Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers to start a week 1 game for the Green Bay Packers since September 6th, 1992 – we’re in for something. The news story is Jordan Love, and should be, however the expectations are the unknown (also as they should be?). Many writers and “experts” have gone back to Aaron Rodgers’ first year as a starter (2008 season) since the parallels are hard to ignore, and used that as a barometer for both stat line and team record. That’s not a bad thought – others have used Matt LaFleur’s inaugural season as Green Bay’s 15^th head coach. Rodgers’ stat line there wasn’t great, but one thing stuck out for me was the TD:INT ratio.

• 353/569 (62%)
• 4002 yards
• 26 TD
• 4 INT
• 95.4 rating (12^th)

That’s a solid stat line, coupled with an opportunistic defense and a lot of close wins, the Packers went 13-3 that season and ended up with the 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. If Jordan Love mimics that stat line, it wouldn’t be out of the question that Green Bay posts another 13-win season, which would be huge moving forward. However, I’d expect essentially the same stats, but with a few more interceptions as the communication and relationship Rodgers and Davante had been one of the best in the NFL, and Love needs time to generate anything close to that – which is why Rodgers’ interceptions were so low.

Never in history, has a fan base of such an awful team talked so much trash. Bear nation has run its mouth about Justin Fields winning MVP and overtaking the Packers in the head-to-head matchup. To quote Kevin Garnett, “Anything is possible!,” Justin Fields would be on his own island of players to flip a switch with such a sample size and just become good. Outside of one-year wonders, Fields is essentially what he is, a super athletic QB that can make a throw or two, then again, what pro QB can’t make 1-2 throws, total?

There’s a great website, nflrankings.theringer.com, that deep dives on grading and analytics of Quarterbacks and ranks them in a video game style that’s easy to understand. What’s funny is they have Jordan Love ranked above Fields and the knock-on Love is due to him being “a mystery,” and the praise of Fields is “He puts the fear of God in FL defenses…right up until the ball leaves his hands.” I can’t think of a harsher knock on a QB than that.

Don’t get me wrong, can Fields take over a game and win? Sure. Plenty of athletic QBs have decimated Green Bay since the Randall Cunningham days (let’s not forget Kaepernick in 2012 running rampant), but is this something to be worried about long-term and think Fields will take over the NFL? Put it this way, if Fields is still QB of the Bears in 3 years, that’s going to be REALLY good for one of these franchises, likely the Packers.

How can Green Bay keep the streak going? Implied above, the Packers can limit the mistakes by shortening the game and running the ball behind their solid offensive line, thus opening passing lanes for Love and the young, yet dangerous, receiving targets. One of those targets, Watson, will be OUT and it’ll be even more imperative for Love to execute the gameplan and get the ground game going early and often.

The other main item to keep an eye on is Rashan Gary. The Packers have solid pass rush, and with their stud, they may boast one of the best in the NFL. However, Gary is coming off a torn ACL last year in Detroit, and typically guys don’t return to 100% until the 2nd season after returning. There are a few instances of guys returning the following year, but it’s rare and they’re usually superstars (ala Adrian Peterson and Willis McGahee), which Rashan Gary may be, but look for him to be on a pitch count, and hopefully super effective. Green Bay does have Gary listed as the starting OLB on the team depth chart, which is a great sign as the Packers are usually one of the more conservative teams when it comes to injuries.

For Week 1 in the NFL, there’s not much to typically be made of it, for what it’s worth, the last 10 eventual Super Bowl winners have gone 8-2 in week 1. I will say, in terms of trash talk, the outcome of this game will have more impact on Bear fans should they lose vs. Packer fans if Green Bay falls. I’m guessing it’ll be a close game, but the Packers have the better OL, DL, and QB. Turnovers will likely dictate the outcome in this one, and when Green Bay loses, it’s because of the turnover battle.

Packers 27 (+1.5)
Bears 23

Season: 0-0
Overall: 87-52