Packers 29, Lions 22

The Packers decided to come out as aggressive as possible to set the tone, and it worked. Christian Watson was a difference-maker in the 1st quarter, allowing the Packers to build a 14-6 lead after Green Bay’s first 2 possessions. On Detroit’s 2nd possession, that’s where the game was decided, a costly turnover that led to 6 points. That ended up being the play of the game. Building Green Bay’s lead to 20-6 (yet another missed extra point), and keeping the momentum on the Packers’ side for the entirety of the game.

Turnovers~ as always stated, the Packers won that department 3-0, yet only scoring 6 points off the 3, those kept points off the board for Detroit and put them in a funk almost all game. The other item that shouldn’t go unnoticed, was Detroit’s 4th down conversion percentage was 20%. The Lions attempted 5 fourth down conversions (fake punt being one of them), and only converted on 1 – those act as turnovers as well due to the momentous impact they have when the defense makes the stop.

Defensive Issues…~ while the Packers were close to holding Detroit’s 6th ranked scoring offense (entering the game) to under 20 points, they still held them to less than their avg. of 27.2 points, which was huge – thanks to those turnovers. However, the defense still gave up 464 total yards, and 140 yards on the ground with 4.5 yards/carry. This allowed Detroit to win the time of possession battle, hence the turnovers helping in this department to win the game.

They were able to sack Jared Goff 3 times only for a total loss of 8 yards…it was a good enough effort to win, with the difference being the fumble return for a TD.

Watson Came to Play

Watson finished with 5 catches for 94 yards and a game-winning touchdown. He showed on the first drive on the game that he was attacking the ball and great things happen when he does this. He’s a matchup nightmare, and does draw the most double-teams in the NFL (as written about in the last blog), but if he’s able to begin coming up with more contested catches, this could really be something in the making. What many are asking, deservedly so, is for Love to lead Watson more on these deep passes as he had both of the Lions d-backs burnt on the play and a good throw is a walk in TD.

Special Issues

The Packers missed two kicks on Thanksgiving, resulting in leaving 4 points on the field, for the 2nd consecutive game. Somehow this did not come back to bite them, but that would’ve made the drive last week vs. the Chargers a lot less nerve-wracking…being up 27-20 is far different than 23-20. Also, this week, the Packers wouldn’t have gone for 2, so it technically was a 5-point difference. Green Bay should’ve been up 34-14 on the Lions’ final possession, making it a 3-score game which is such a crucial difference in the game of football. The one nice thing the Special Teams did was stuff the fake punt late in the 3rd quarter which allowed Green Bay to bust the game open from 23-14 to 29-14 (had the extra point been made prior, Green Bay could’ve kicked the extra point on this TD to make it a 3-score game and essentially ice it).

Lastly, Love…

This was a key play, but he balled out all game. Love finished with arguably the best game of his young career: 22/32 (68.8%); 268 yards; 3 TD; 0 INT; 125.5 RAT. He played so well that maybe his worst ball was still completed for 53 yards…the underthrow to Watson on the opening play of the game. He needs to keep this going and will need to play well next week vs. a very good and opportunistic Kansas City defense.

What’s At Stake?

The Lions currently sit as the 2-seed in the NFC playoff race. This would guarantee them two home games in the playoffs (assuming they win in Wild Card Weekend). Detroit holds a 2.5 game lead on 2nd place Minnesota, and 2 of their last three games come against the Vikes in the regular season.

Green Bay is coming off a gutsy win against a desperate LA Chargers team, and has an opportunity to inject themselves into the divisional race with a win – kinda. Right now, Green Bay sits as the first team outside the NFC playoffs looking in. They’re 1.5 games back of Minnesota, and is essentially 2+ games back having already lost to the Vikings in Week 8 at Lambeau Field. If Green Bay pulls out a victory at Ford Field, they’ll be 1 game back to Minnesota with Minnesota also holding the tiebreaker.

Previous Meeting

I’m sure everyone recalls Detroit coming into Lambeau on a short week (the other Thursday game) and blasting the Packers 34-20 jumping out to a 27-3 halftime lead. The Lions were able to rack up 211 yards on the ground and David Montgomery completely took over the game early on. Goff didn’t do anything special, and did lead off the game with an interception, but Green Bay only scored a field goal on it and the Lions decided that was enough.

Injuries…Never an Excuse, but…

Thirteen of the players listed on the Packers’ injury report are Day 1 starters. The DNP (Did Not Practice) alone are all key starters: De’Vondre Campbell; Josiah Deguara; Aaron Jones; Luke Musgrave. Deguara seems to be working himself out of a job, however with the injury to Musgrave, the Tight Ends will be Tucker Kraft and Josiah Deguara…and they’ll be used frequently, hopefully. Running backs A.J. Dillon and newly re-acquired Patrick Taylor should get a decent work load in the game to alleviate pressure in the pass game…also, maybe there might be a coupe of shot plays to Watson and Reed to try to make up for lost yardage from Musgrave and Jones being OUT.

Keep It Tight?

The Packers have played six 1-score games this year, with all of those coming down to the last possession. One of the 4 games that wasn’t, was Week 4 vs. Detroit. Look for Green Bay to somehow keep the game close and get another opportunity to win it late — at least that’s the goal for each game this season; learning experiences.

Detroit Shock?

The Lions had a scare against the Chicago Bears, possibly waking them up. However, over their last 4 games, the Lions are giving up an average of 29.0 points/game. The most recent common opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers, hung 38 on the Lions. However, that game was in LA, and LA would’ve been close to 34 or more had they not had any drops. That being said, Green Bay is playing fairly well on defense since that Detroit thumping, giving up an average of 17.7 points/game.

Matchup

Detroit ranks considerably better in almost every category (especially overall) than Green Bay. However, maybe the Packers have found some confidence and played loosely in their last game against LA. I keep saying “In order for Green Bay to win, they’ll need to win the turnover and time of possession battles.” With Green Bay’s offensive line being in shambles and just not that good, coupled with injuries to Aaron Jones and Emanuel Wilson, time of possession may be a lost cause – focus on scoring touchdowns off takeaways.

Packers 26
Lions 31

Season: 4-6
Overall: 91-58

Green Bay gutted out a solid victory against a desperate opponent. While they were aided by the sun “causing” a few drops by the Chargers, the Packers too, had to deal with the sun and had some drops of their own. As consistently stated, the turnover battle ended up being the difference in this game. Green Bay jumped on Ekeler’s fumble early in the 4th quarter. That took at least 3 points off the board for LA, and considering that was 2nd & Goal from the GB 2 yard-line, likely took off 7 points. This is the Chargers, and has been their MO for years. They have immense talent scattered across their roster, but they’re so mistake-prone that they’re a perennial .500 ball club. To quote a good friend of mine, “It sucks to suck.”

The second key of the game, and I always talk about, is time of possession. The Packers won the ToP battle 31:58 to 28:02. That helped their defense stay fresh enough to make two stands on LA’s final 2 possessions – even if Johnston dropped a bomb.

Lastly, it’s being overlooked, but Carrington Valentine (#37) might just be flat out good. Since the Packers traded away Rasul Douglas (or apparently what some fans considered Deion Sanders), Carrington Valentine has allowed 5 receptions on 18 targets, for 64 yards, resulting in a 41.9 passer rating. That’s quite good. Considering he’s a rookie 7th rounder, that’s incredible…and he may improve.

The major issue is the Packers allowed 150 yards on only 24 rush attempts (6.3 yards/carry), with 28 coming on a scramble by Justin Herbert and another 37 on a Preston Smith busted edge containment by Ekeler. Green Bay’s Defensive Coordinator, Joe Barry, is surviving with the Bend but Don’t Break defense which eventually will break against better teams – ala Detroit and Kansas City…the Packers’ next two opponents.