Will this become a familiar sight? Kansas City has participated in 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls, and is quickly becoming a dynasty. My definition of Dynasty would be winning 3 rings in a 5 year stretch…typically 3 of 4, but if you win 3+ over 4-5 years, that qualifies for me.

Most of you will be wondering my thoughts on Green Bay- and that’s fine- but the entire NFL is just as fun and exciting. So alas, here we go!

AFC				NFC
East				East
Buffalo	12	5		Philadelphia	14	3
New York	8	9		Dallas	12	5
Miami	8	9		New York	9	8
New England	7	10		Washington	4	13
North				North
Pittsburgh	12	5		Green Bay	11	6
Cincinnati	12	5		Detroit	10	7
Baltimore	11	6		Chicago	7	10
Cleveland	8	9		Minnesota	5	12
West				West
Kansas City	14	3		San Francisco	13	4
Denver	10	7		Seattle	8	9
Los Angeles	10	7		Los Angeles	5	12
Las Vegas	8	9		Arizona	2	15
South				South
Jacksonville	13	4		Tampa Bay	7	10
Indianapolis	6	11		New Orleans	6	11
Tennessee	4	13		Atlanta	6	11
Houston	4	13		Carolina	6	11
Playoffs
Kansas City	14	3	1	Philadelphia	14	3
Jacksonville	13	4	2	San Francisco	13	4
Pittsburgh	12	5	3	Green Bay	11	6
Buffalo	12	5	4	Tampa Bay	7	10
Cincinnati	12	5	5	Dallas	12	5
Baltimore	11	6	6	Detroit	10	7
Denver	10	7	7	New York	9	8

If you’d like to see how I got the Packers to 11-6, I’ll share here:

Week	Opponent	W/L
1	at Chicago	W
2	at Atlanta	W
3	v New Orleans	W
4	v Detroit	W
5	at Las Vegas	L
6	BYE
7	at Denver	L
8	v Minnesota	W
9	v LA Rams	W
10	at Pittsburgh	L
11	v LA Chargers	W
12	at Detroit	L
13	v Kansas City	L
14	at NY Giants	L
15	v Tampa Bay	W
16	at Carolina	W
17	at Minnesota	W
18	v Chicago	W

Wild Card

After the 2023 Regular Season plays out exactly like I’ve stated above, the Arizona Cardinals will have successfully tanked and “earned” the #1 overall pick, and the playoff matches will be set:

Broncos @ Jaguars
Ravens @ Steelers
Bengals @ Bills
Giants @ 49ers
Lions @ Packers
Cowboys @ Buccaneers

Divisional

The winners are bolded above, and the following matchups ensue:

Ravens @ Chiefs
Bills @ Jaguars
Cowboys @ Eagles
Packers @ 49ers

Championship Sunday

As usual, it pays to play at home in January as all 4 home teams advance to play in Championship Sunday. A repeat of the NFC title game, except SF’s QB, Brock Purdy, is able to throw a football and the outcome is drastically different, with San Francisco hoisting the George Halas trophy. Not much changes on the AFC side, with Pat Mahomes taking the Lamar Hunt trophy after hosting a 6th consecutive AFC Championship Game.

49ers @ Eagles
Jaguars @ Chiefs

It’ll be a rematch of Super Bowl LIV where the San Francisco 49ers will appear in their 8th Big Game and take of the dyNASTY of that what is Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Much like Mahomes’ other 2 victories, he will become damn near unstoppable in the 4th quarter and take over the game.

49ers 27
Chiefs 31

The offseason seems like it takes forever, while simultaneously seems to fly by. It likely has something to do with most of it occurring in Summer, and Wisconsin summers being in early July and end about now (early September). The Packers are entering their 105th season of football and history seems to have repeated itself once again. The changing of the tides at the most important position in all of sports; Quarterback.

Jordan Love threw 21 of 33 (63.6%), 183 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, with a passer rating of 109.8. He also had 4 rushes for 33 yards (8.3 yards/rush). That’s a solid stat line and essentially came to a game’s worth of play. From my perspective, stats tell one story, however the biggest item that caught my eye was his footwork. He lacked “happy feet” in the pocket. He didn’t look rushed and seemed quite deliberate in his play – akin to a seasoned vet.

A large reason for Love “looking the part” in preseason had to be his offensive line. According the Pro Football Focus, between LG Elgton Jenkins (#74), C Josh Myers (#71), RG Jon Runyan Jr. (#76), C/G Zach Tom (#50), T Yosh Nijman (#73), and T Rasheed Walker (#63) — a group that played a majority of starter snaps — combined for 305 pass-blocking snaps. The entire group gave up 2 QB pressures. Those two pressures were allowed by Walker, who’s coming into his own, and he also played the most snaps of the afore mentioned group, with 78. An almost inconceivable rate.

In fact, the Packers allowed only 1 sack the entire preseason. It was with 3rd string QB, Alex McGough, and even that was a sack that lost 0 yards. The Packers are built to win in the trenches, especially on offense, and control the game by using their biggest weapon – the backfield.

How Good Can Green Bay Be?

The Packers boasted a very solid preseason performance, and may have won all 3 games had the matchup with New England not been suspended due to Patriots’ CB Isaiah Bolden was carted off after being hit by a teammate in the 4th quarter of the 2nd preseason game.

Even following that game, Pro Football Focus had Green Bay ranked as the best offense AND defense of the entire preseason. While I like to reference PFF, they’re not the Bible, but it can give context rankings to things that lack context – ala preseason production. Would it be shocking if the Packers finished with one of the best records in the NFC? No. Would it be if they finished with one of the worst? Also no. Reason being, the Packers are once again loaded with talent, however they now have the youngest roster in the NFL – meaning there are going to be plenty of plays/games they could/should win and yet it’ll seem like inexperience let them down. Conversely, there will be tons of highlights from “unknown” players that will make this one of the most exciting seasons in quite some time.

Running Back Market – What’s Up?

NFL fans are finally waking up to the fact that teams don’t prioritize running backs, and some are even realizing the better the team the less likely they are to place premium $ on the position in total. This tweet has made the rounds across social media, but it’s very accurate – in the NFL, money must be allocated precisely and efficiently across the most productive positions and running back isn’t one of them, it’s just how it is and it has been for some time.

The % of salary committed to NFL backfields shows a trend. Some of the teams that commit the most, may be “good,” but aren’t realistic contenders to win the Vince Lombardi trophy.

As you can see, the Packers rank 12th in backfield spend. Meanwhile the reigning champs (and best team in the NFL over the past 4 years), Kansas City rank 25th. The premium of money allocated likely follows the positions that should be taken in the 1st round of the NFL Draft: QB; OL; DL; Edge; CB. Those are the most difficult positions to find and the most difficult to stock talent/production, so the best teams allocate money towards those positions and can fill in the other roster spots (WR, Safety, Inside LB, WR, TE, P, and K) on the cheap, typically.

The nice thing with Green Bay, while they’re in the top 50% of backfield spend, they arguably have one of, if not the, best backfield(s) in the NFL – and the way LaFleur runs his offense (which we’ll see this year without Captain Audible) is through the backfield and misdirection. Aaron Jones is an absolute weapon and “The Mayor of Door County,” A.J. Dillon, is a perfect compliment. This team is set up for the long run and assuming Jordan Love is the man, they could compete for the division as early as this season.

Much has been made on social media, both from fans and “experts” about Packers General Manager, Brian Gutekunst, passing on fan-favorite, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – Ohio St.) and taking, yet another defender. The claim is that it’s the wrong move for various reasons:

1. Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry “sucks” so why keep giving him talent? If that doesn’t answer itself, you may be passed helping.
2. Jordan Love has no experience, why not surround him with weapons to give him a chance? Again, when I judge Aaron Rodgers for only have 1 ring (which is almost entirely due to his defense), a QB’s best friend is a great offensive line, and a great defense. Weapons/Skill players are the most likely to develop.

How “Bad” is Joe Barry?

While this may not be the best judgement of a DC (Defensive Coordinator), I’ll play Devil’s Advocate, or at least offer a different perspective on viewing Green Bay’s DC. His track record is not impressive, hell its straight up bad. He served 2 years as the Redskins DC (2015 and 2016), ranking 17th and 19th in scoring, respectively. Since taking over in Green Bay, in 2021, the last two season’s he’s ranked 14th (2021) and 17th (2022).

I took a look at his track record of games in December and January to see if there’s been improvement. The verdict? Not really…well, maybe.

2022 (GB)	Pts	Yds
12/4/2022	19	409
12/19/2022	12	156
12/25/2022	20	376
1/1/2023	17	346
1/8/2023	20	323
Avg.	17.6	322.0
2021 (GB)
12/12/2021	30	347
12/19/2021	30	354
12/25/2021	22	408
1/2/2022	10	206
1/9/2022	37	404
1/22/2022	13	212
Avg.	23.7	321.8
2016 (Was)
12/4/2016	31	369
12/11/2016	22	383
12/19/2016	26	438
12/24/2016	21	458
1/1/2017	19	332
Avg.	23.8	396.0
2015 (Was)
12/7/2015	19	318
12/13/2017	21	377
12/20/2015	25	452
12/26/2015	24	398
1/3/2016	23	512
1/10/2016	35	346
Avg.	24.5	400.5
Total Avg.	22.5	360.2

The numbers seems to be consistent, except for this past season. Considering he’s only had 1 good year of QB play (Rodgers’ MVP in 2021), that’s what led to the playoffs, as well as Washington making the postseason in 2015 where Green Bay came in, fell down 11-0, early, then took over and won 35-18 after a huge goal line stand.

What’s interesting is this past season, 2022. The Packers got “hot” and it was actually due to their defense. Many may forget, it was hobbled, missing Rashan Gary and Eric Stokes, as well, but found a way to give up 17.6 points per game, which would’ve ranked them 2nd in scoring. Keep in mind that was with Minnesota putting up 14 in the 4th quarter of a game that was 41-3 with all the starters pulled.

In Joe Barry’s two elimination games (context: games where the Packers were eliminated), Green Bay gave up 20 points and 323 to the Lions in Week 18. Detroit ended up being the 5th scoring offense, averaging 26.6 points/game. The flip side, the Packers scored 16 against the 28th scoring defense, giving up an average of 25.5 points/game. Barry’s unit came through.

Shall I bring up the prior elimination game? The San Francisco 49ers had a total of -15 yards of offense with 6:41 left in the 1st half. Once they actually crossed midfield, they ended the drive by throwing an interception in the end zone. On the game, Barry’s unit relinquished 6 points and 212 yards. I’m not advocating for him to keep his job, or that he’s not the problem — I’m offering a different perspective into why using top draft picks on defense isn’t a bad idea because the DC is bad. (How’s that for a few double/triple negatives?)

Now Who to Keep an Eye On?

Rounds 2 and 3 are where teams truly separate themselves from the pack in terms of true value and talent-add. The Packers (as of 5:30 pm) hold the 42nd, 45th, and 78th overall selections tonight. There are quite a few players that could truly help the team that will be available.

Let this marinate for a minute, but if Hooker is available when the Packers are on the clock at 78, don’t be surprised if they snag him. Would he be an insurance plan for Love should he suck or get hurt? Probably not, at least that wouldn’t be the intention. He’s a promising QB and if he’s hurt, teams will shy away from him because he may not be 100% by the start of the season. You know how Green Bay has been great at finding QBs? They keep taking them. It’s that simple. Let’s say Jordan Love is the next Tom Brady, if Hooker is the Jimmy Garoppolo, how is that a bad thing? The Packers would then have a huge asset they could trade for immense value in the future. If Hooker doesn’t pan out…well, most draft picks don’t…

The Packers Will Select _____ in Rounds 2 & 3

I’m guessing the Packers will take best available, per usual, however that may not be a WR or a TE. However, there are plenty of talented WRs and TEs still on the board and the value in taking those at 42, 45, and 78 far outweigh taking one at 13. Don’t be shocked if they trade up (Green Bay will have 7 picks tomorrow for rounds 4-7) to snag an additional guy in Round 2.

The Tight Ends:

1. Michael Mayer – Notre Dame
2. Luke Musgrave – Oregon St.
3. Darnell Washington – Georgia
4. Sam LaPorta – Iowa

The Iowa pedigree, especially for tight ends is no joke. Remember the combine and hype for George Kittle? No, you don’t? That’s because no one (aside from Hawkeye Nation) did, because he was a 5th round draft pick and is now a certifiable stud. La Porta may be there in Round 3, but if GB takes him, there might be something there…

The Wide Receivers:

1. Jonathan Mingo – Ole Miss
2. Jayden Reed – Michigan St.
3. Jalin Hyatt – Tennessee
4. Cedric Tillman – Tennessee
5. Marvin Mims – Oklahoma

There are a ton, but these are a few. Hyatt was a game-breaker. For the common fan, but knowledgeable fan, he may be akin to Mecole Hardman – an all or nothing guy. Maybe a better version of MVS…

I’d list offensive lineman too, because they’re always a need – remember, Elgton Jenkins was a 2nd round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Aaron Rodgers Trade

The inevitable trade, that transpired over months, finally occurred on April 24th. For tonight’s purpose, the Packers swapped first round picks with the New York Jets, moving up from 15th to 13th. While it’s only a difference of 2 spots, the perspective is a ton of leverage against others. The Packers added the 13th, 42nd, and 207th picks in this year’s draft, while giving up the 170th – if you’re keeping score at home for this weekend’s draft.

What NOT to Draft in the 1st Round

There are “professional” mock drafters everywhere, showing the Packers taking either a Tight End, Wide Receiver, and even God forbid a Running Back. The enticement of the shiny object is far too much temptation for the average fan to endure. Many of those fans parade around with Twitter accounts and even their own web channels, and they claim to know who will be good and help this team. There are catastrophic flaws in all of that – not saying I’m immune to this, but my approach is far different – the main issue is that Rookies are never the difference-maker to winning a Super Bowl. The best rookies are typically highly drafted, thus ending up on an awful team that’s rebuilding. Also, rookies take quite a bit of time to truly contribute.

The other factor is value. Positions, like any team sport, range in values. We all know that QB is the most important position in the NFL. Based on pay scales the “most important” positions are QB, WR, Edge Rusher, OL, DT, CB, S, TE, RB, and LB. With wide receiver being slated 2nd, it’s considered important, yet it’s just not the case. Reasons being, every team carries 6+, meaning there are almost 200 wide receivers on active rosters each week. This means there are a ton of WRs in each draft, and needing a superstar is not necessary to win a title.

I chose an arbitrary year (2010), and of all of the wide receivers taken in the 1st round (50 of them) there were only 2 selected that eventually won the Super Bowl with the team that picked them. Those two?

1. Demaryius Thomas, drafted in 2010, won the Super Bowl in 2015.
2. Mike Evans, drafted in 2014, won the Super Bowl in 2020.

There’s a common theme with those two gentlemen…each was drafted then their team acquired an all-time great QB. Thomas was drafted by Denver and they signed Peyton Manning in 2012, similar to the Buccaneers drafting Mike Evans in 2014 and signing Tom Brady in 2020.

The point being, the Packers haven’t drafted a wide receiver in the 1st round since 2002, Javon Walker. Also, the missed opportunities of winning Super Bowls never came down to not having a wide receiver (yes, it was almost always QB play).

How About a Tight End?

Like Wide Receivers, Tight Ends can be found a-plenty in later rounds. There’s much ado about the Packers “need(ing) to surround Jordan Love with weapons to make him successful.” While weapons and massive talent doesn’t hurt, teams are built on the line of scrimmage. Skill players are plentiful and the weak ones still get massive playing time while bad Offensive or Defensive linemen get exposed, early and often. Just off the top my head, Rob Gronkowski was drafted in the 2nd round. Travis Kelce was drafted in the 3rd round, George Kittle? A 5th round draft pick. How about the Packers’ previous starter, “Bobby T”??? Oh, he was an undrafted free agent.

Teams that pick WR and/or TE are your typical bad teams. There’s a reason. Skill guys are fun to watch, but you can’t have a great defense without a solid D line and pass rush. If you have a great QB, protecting him with a solid O line allowing him to read the defense matters far more than some sweet skill players.

Who Will the Packers Draft?

There are a slew of players I’d love Green Bay to draft. They’re in the trenches. That list looks like this, in no particular order:

1. Peter Skoronski, OT – Northwestern
2. Paris Johnson, Jr., OT – Ohio St.
3. Lukas Van Ness, DL – Iowa
4. Joey Porter, Jr., CB – Penn St.

While it looks like a Big Ten love fest, there are a few others that I’d love to see Green Bay take, however, my guess is they’ll be off the board. Also, I’m terrible at guessing who Gutekunst will take, although I correctly selected Devonte Wyatt last year – Quay Walker was not on my radar, so we’ll see.

Season Predictions Lookback

According to my season predictions, the Packers fell short of my prediction of them falling short. All in all, that’s a good thing. Would rather have better draft capital than still not winning the Super Bowl. I had Green Bay finishing 12-5 and losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship game. Each team finished 8-9, with Tampa winning their division and losing to the 5th-seeded Dallas Cowboys.

Now each team is looking like they’re losing their starting Quarterbacks. Green Bay has Jordan Love in waiting while Tampa Bay has since signed Baker Mayfield. The writing is on the wall that Green Bay is moving on from Aaron Rodgers…more on that later.

The Chiefs winning is further validation that a QB is the true testament to winning, surrounding him with the best talent typically helps, but is not required – at least for truly great quarterbacks. The Chiefs lost their #1 wide receiver and had the 16th ranked scoring defense (giving up 21.7 points/game). The Packers lost their #1 wide receiver and had the 17th ranked scoring defense (giving up 21.8 points/game). Sure there are other factors, but it’s comical that Kansas City signing MVS – a player that Packer nation didn’t think was worth signing – was used as an argument to KC replacing their #1 wideout’s departure.

Rodgers

The ongoing, inevitable saga that is a HoF regular season QB disgruntled in Green Bay wanting to leave…is still on going. While the media went nuts for weeks, and by some accounts still is, nothing has actually transpired. Rodgers is still on Green Bay’s roster, the only difference is he’s made public what everyone already knew- so is that news?

While the hold up is about compensation, for someone that’s wanted him gone for over a decade, the compensation really matters, while it doesn’t matter at all simultaneously. It matters because every teams’ objective is to be the best they can, at all times, for as long as possible. However, Green Bay just ridding themselves of Rodgers and his contract would be a vast improvement…so, trading him, like Favre, will improve the team regardless. Now, if the Packers can garner a couple of picks, that will help years to come. The Favre trade allowed the Packers some assets to trade up and eventually draft Clay Matthews.

Everything Draft

It’s wild to speculate what draft pick(s) Green Bay will siphon from New York, if any, but assuming they get the 13th overall selection or a compilation of others, there’s a likelihood the Packers will us them for a trade of sorts. If the Packers somehow receive the 13th overall pick, I’d expect them to stay put and select the best player available, or there’s a chance if they like a lot of players on the board, they’ll trade that pick and pick the best available at 15.

Should Green Bay get a couple of later picks, there’s a chance they could use them to package and trade up to the mid-to-late 1st round or early-2nd round, where they can then take 2 players between 15 and 35. Those players could and should be a force for the next 5 years adding to an already stacked roster.

All this being said, Green Bay has all of the leverage, as long as they stay patient and just wait. The worst case scenario is they have Rodgers on contract and he has to make the choice to either return to 1265 Lombardi and compete for the starting job with Jordan Love, retire, or demand a trade to anywhere. Should he demand a trade- that will decrease Green Bay’s overall leverage, however would and could increase their leverage between the Jets and themselves because other teams will be more apt to make a play for the 39-year old quarterback.

Potential Draft Prospects

There are a few prospects that are intriguing, as this draft seems like another deep one, meaning there’s tons of value in having as many picks as possible vs. having a few really high draft picks. It also means that everyone may have a good draft, but if you have more picks than everyone, well…

I could list a lot of guys that may be there at 15 – while I don’t think Jalen Carter (DL- Georgia) will fall, if he’s close and the Packers have capital, it may be worth trading up as he seems to be the next Warren Sapp. If you can get a Hall of Fame Defensive Lineman, you can win a (single) Super Bowl with no Quarterback – i.e. Los Angeles Rams with Stafford (Aaron Donald); Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Brad Johnson (Warren Sapp).

There is one kid with which I’ve been intrigued and have since confided in a close friend who just happens to be a diehard Hawkeyes fan as well…that kid is Lukas Van Ness. One thing that rings true, in the NFL, one can never have enough Offensive Linemen, Defensive Linemen, or Edge Rushers. There’s always a need – and if you have 4 great edge rushers, there are plenty of packages where they can be used all at once, and even more importantly, if two are used simultaneously, the rotation is strong.

While he’s raw, he moves like JJ Watt did as a prospect entering the NFL. Couple that with Iowa’s strong NFL pedigree, there’s a potential Green Bay could have the strongest defensive front in football for the foreseeable future, featuring Kenny Clark, Rashan Gary, De’Vondre Campbell, and Quay Walker.

To close out, for those that desperately want a wide receiver with the 1st pick for Green Bay, there’s too much value in using a Round 1 pick on a WR. 1st round selections should be reserved for QBs, OL, DL, Edge Rushers, and CBs. All other positions can be addressed in rounds 2-7 with great value. If you’re deadset on a WR or TE in the first round just look at the players taken in years pass in the 1st round and their position. Then look at those WR or TE taken in the 1st round, the team that picked them, and how strong that team was at the time and following it…there’s a strong trend.

This game was a microcosm of the 2022 Green Bay Packers. It started off slow, showed promise, and ultimately fluttered and proved this team was what it was, a roughly .500 ball club. While the regular season record was different than Matt LaFleur’s first 3 seasons, the result was eerily similar…falling short of the ultimate goal while convincing most of the fan base there was “a chance.”

Review: Lions 20; Packers 16~ the Packers won the Time of Possession, however lost the turnover battle 0-2. Both teams finished 4 of 12 on third downs, but Detroit converted both 4th downs, while Green Bay only got 1 of their two attempts. The one they didn’t gave Detroit 3 points and wiped out, who knows, how many points off the Packers’ final tally.

So, for the 3rd consecutive season, the Packers lost a must-win game, at Lambeau, to finish their season. The mystique has been gone since Mike Vick and the Falcons came in here on Jan. 4, 2003 (2002 season) and beat the hell out of the Packers, 24-7. Since, in postseason play, the Packers have gone 7-6.

Moving forward, the Lions are likely in the best shape of the division. They have improved each season under Campbell, and finished 9-8, knocked out the most-hated team in the division (Packers) from the postseason, in their house, which the Lions never win. Detroit has the Rams’ 1st round pick this year (5th overall), as well as their first round pick. For the second consecutive draft, they’re going to add 2 legit players from making the obvious/right call- trading their aging QB that wasn’t all that good and definitely wasn’t winning anything of significance with them…sound familiar?

What now for the Packers? If Tom Brady sticks with his retirement decision, this time, it’s almost guaranteed Aaron Rodgers plays as he likely doesn’t want to share the spotlight of his Hall of Fame induction with the best Quarterback ever. This season, unlike previous, the trade chatter has surfaced early and often, for the obvious reason: the Packers compounded their fatal mistake by continuing to make the same fatal mistake- resigning/extending Aaron Rodgers whilst under contract/control.

This leaves the Packers in a precarious position- will they have the stones to make the appropriate move (trade Rodgers) while being able to garner a significant return to allow them to continue to grow the roster for the next 5-10 years? It’s always best to move on from a player a year or 2 early rather than a year or two late…the most recent example was Donald Driver. His last year in Green Bay, was, umm…awful. However, there’s always an opportunity to garner a return on goods that are quickly depreciating and thus give yourself a high win-win rate. We’ll see if General Manager Brian Gutekunst makes the obviously smart decision. With this, it’s very easy to see (for some) the time to move on from other highly paid players, which are aging, can set this roster up for extreme success for a 6+ year run. See the move by cutting Za’Darius Smith. Moving on from all-world Left Tackle, David Bakhtiari and Show Time Half Back, Aaron Jones, would not only free up space quicker, it would allow the Packers to evaluate players behind them and give them the knowledge of that and the flexibility of freed up money to make better decisions, long-term, for the team.

Season: 7-10
Overall: 87-52

What Happened Last Time~ Thinking back to their Week 9 matchup, Aaron Rodgers threw 3 interceptions, all at the goal line. Then, the last drive of the game, ended on a non-PI call that would’ve resulted in a 1st down near the Lions’ 1-yard line. All that being said, the defense balled out that game, shutting down the (now ranked) 4th-scoring offense in the NFL, to just 15 points. Couple that with Rodgers not throwing 3 goal line interceptions, and the Packers might roll, again.

Matchup~

	Det. D.	(rank)	vs.	GB Off.	(rank)
Rush	144.8	29		125.6	13
Pass	249.4	30		215.3	17
Total	398.7	32		340.9	16
Pts	25.7	29		22.1	14
	Det. Off.			GB D.
Rush	129.7	11		141.8	26
Pass	253.9	6		195.4	4
Total	383.6	3		337.4	18
Pts	27.1	4		21.9	17
T/O
Takeaways	20	T-16th		24	T-6th
Giveaways	15	1st		20	T-12th
Diff.	5	T-6th		4	T-8th

Like last week, the Packers are catching a team that’s outperformed their preseason expectations, but have an awful defense. If Green Bay can keep running the ball effectively, they should be able to have their way Dan Campbell’s last ranked defense. Green Bay needs to get pressure on Jared Goff and get him off his throwing spot, once that happens, he tends to get happy feet and begins throwing the opposition the ball. However, the Lions are the best team in the NFL at holding onto the football.

The mismatch the Packers have is essentially every category while they’re on offense, and Detroit is 11th in rush offense while Green Bay is 26th against the run. Aside from that, the real matchup to watch is Detroit’s passing offense vs the Packers’ 4th ranked pass defense – which has been electric during the 4-game win streak.

Potential Problems~ they come in the form of two rookies (actually 3). While Jameson Williams (#9) is coming off a torn ACL in last year’s NCAA National Championship game. Adam Hutchinson has been a terror this year, including an INT vs. Aaron Rodgers in their previous matchup this season.

• Adam Hutchinson (#97): 7.5 sacks; 3 interceptions; 2 fumble recoveries. He’s a real problem and potential game wrecker, and he was just that in the Week 9 matchup.
• Jameson Williams (#9): 1 catch; 41 yards; 1 TD. While Jameson has only 1 reception on the season, he is down right a deep threat, much like Christian Watson on the Packers. The reason I bring him up, is if he’s close to 100% healthy, he can be a mismatch for anyone.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (#14): 100 receptions; 1,112 yards; 6TD. St. Brown is the younger brother of former Packers’ WR Equanimeous and he’s been a true #1. Look for Jaire to shadow him all game, much like last week against Justin Jefferson.
• Jamaal Williams (#30): 246 carries; 994 yards; 15 TD. Talk about a familiar face. Williams leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns, and has been a glue guy for this Lions squad that’s sum is far greater than it’s individual parts.

Prediction~ should Seattle lose to the Rams tomorrow, this becomes a true play-in game. Winner advances to the 2 seed and the loser goes home. However, if Seattle wins, Detroit could knock Green Bay out of postseason play AND get the (as of now) 6th overall pick thanks to LA trading everything for Matthew Stafford.

Lions 24
Packers 34 (-5)

Season: 7-9
Overall: 87-51

Following the play pictured above, Justin Jefferson, and the Vikings, weren’t the same. The game got out of hand after the Vikings blocked the Packers’ first punt attempt of the game and took over possession at Green Bay’s 1-yard line. Minnesota netted -1 yards in the ensuing 3 plays, leaving them to settle for a field goal. The ensuing kickoff gave the Packers – starring upstart return man, Keisean Nixon – all the momentum needed to catapult to a decisive victory over their archrival.

The key to the blog title was the Deion Sanders-like trash-talk (and more importantly, play) by Jaire Alexander. The Packers’ (and NFL’s) top cornerback held Justin Jefferson to just 1 catch for 15 yards on 5 targets. Truly amazing. Since then, Justin Jefferson went into hiding. In addition, the Minnesota faithful have gone into full “blame anything” mode instead of just admitting their team is the worst 12-win team in NFL history. Gotta love fans, it’s never their teams’ issues, obviously the refs were on the side of the Packers. You know, like Jaire should’ve been penalized for doing the Griddy, but it’s ok for Jefferson to…do the Griddy. Nevermind the fact that following Adrian Amos’ interception, Jefferson took his helmet off (unsportsmanlike), then jammed it into the back of a ref (another unsportsmanlike), all while on the field of play. Naw, it’s cool…I mean, aside from Minnesota being outplayed in literally every aspect of the game, they were the better team and should’ve won.

The best one yet, was a fan on Reddit posted about his conspiracy theory the Packers watered the middle of the field to slow down the Vikings, and obviously would…only…affect the Vikings. There’s another one, at least that I’ve been aware of…the NFL colluded with the Packers to, wait, unfairly schedule their last 2 games to be played at Lambeau Field. These are just the ones of which I’m aware.

I bring all of these up as a fan base of a 12-4 team, that’s won 11 one-score games, should be feeling great to have a shot at 2-seed and possibly host 3 playoff games. Now, they’re justifying why they’re going to lose Wild Card weekend – because the NFL isn’t fair. Hopefully Packer nation never forgets this and brings it up every single time Vikings fans make any comment about anything, ever.

Review~ the defense was amazing, at least when the starters played. They forced 4 turnovers, scoring 28 points off of them. A far cry from the 6 points off 3 Tampa Bay turnovers in the 2020 NFC title game loss. Or far more than the – stop me if you’ve heard this before – 6 points of FIVE turnovers in the OT loss to Seattle in the 2014 NFC title game. Turnovers are great, but as they’re momentum snatchers – if you don’t capitalize on them, the momentum swings back to the other team for escaping casualty.

How did Green Bay score those 4 touchdowns? By sticking to the run game, again. Out of the 61 total plays, the Green & Gold rushed 33 times for 163 yards. They won the time of possession by a wide margin, yet again. These are great signs for a team that must win the Super Bowl in order to consider this season anything better than a failure – run the ball and play great defense.

Like in Week 1, and essentially every matchup since Brett Favre took over as starting quarterback for the Packers, the Vikings have treated every game against Green Bay like its the Super Bowl. They have good reason, they’ve never won one, so they try to get themselves to experience it, much like Brewer fans (the baseball equivalent of the Minnesota Vikings).

Minnesota now has some extra motivation to win on Sunday. The fact they could knock their division rial out of the postseason wasn’t enough for Jaire Alexander. He decided to give them a bunch more material by stating that Justin Jefferson’s 9 grabs, 184 yard, and 2 touchdown performance was a “fluke.” Not a recipe for success.

	Min D.	(rank)	vs.	GB Off.	(rank)
Rush	120.8	19		123.1	14
Pass	281.5	32		219.5	17
Total	402.3	31		342.6	16
Pts	24.9	28		20.9	18
	Min Off.			GB D.
Rush	94.5	28		144.4	27
Pass	259.9	6		192.4	3
Total	354.5	12		336.8	17
Pts	25.2	7		22.3	17
T/O
Takeaways	23	8th		20	T-13th
Giveaways	17	T-6th		20	T-19th
Diff.	6	5th		0	T-13th

There’s one matchup that sticks out, like last week, and it’s the awfulness of Minnesota’s defense. While they’re the 6th passing offense and 7th scoring offense, their defense is atrocious. They’re last against the pass, 2nd-last in total yards, and 28th in points allowed. Over their last 4 games, Green Bay has averaged 27.8 points per game. Meanwhile Minnesota has surrendered 30+ in four of their last 7. A lot of that has come from turnovers, meaning Green Bay will have to have a similar game to last week if they’d like to keep their season alive.

While their record is tied for the 2nd-best in the entire league, the Vikings rank 10th in point differential, sitting at +5. They’re closest ranked to the New York Jets, which better resembles their true strength. With that being said, the Packers are still 18th in the NFL with a -21 differential, putting them in line with teams like Cleveland, New Orleans, and Carolina – losing teams.

There are 3 weapons Green Bay needs to be aware and somehow slow down, if possible, if they want to win.

• Justin Jefferson #18
• Dalvin Cook #4
• K.J. Osborn #17

Momentum is a funny thing, and it’s tough to track, but easy to feel. The Vikings have essentially had momentum all year, throughout the season, whilst Green Bay has had it for a few weeks now, it’s come to a head, and the biggest rival has a chance to end your season – this will feel like a playoff game, for both teams.

Minnesota seems to be the more complete team, yet their defense is awful, which combined with Kirk Cousins will be their eventual demise – will Green Bay have enough to pull it out?

Vikings 23
Packers 20 (-3)

Season: 7-8
Overall: 87-50

Review: Packers 26; Dolphins 20~ the game opened with a bang for the Packers, on a 93-yard kickoff return by Keisean Nixon down to Miami’s 9-yard line. Rodgers and the offense squandered that massive opportunity and lost 9 yards on the drive and settled for a game-tying field goal. That won’t get it done in the playoffs, hell not even against the Vikings on New Year’s Day. All too familiar to January football that Rodgers and the Packers have played in the last 12 years.

Turnovers: the key to almost every evenly-matched football game, was the decisive statistic here. Green Bay took the ball away 4 times, while Miami only had 1 takeaway. Miami outgained Green Bay 376 to 301, with a huge disparity in avg. yards per play (8.4 v 4.6). The Packers again stuck to the run game, enough, to win.

Defense: While the Packers’ D was torched in the 1st half, with poor tackling and busted coverage (in zone, of course), Green Bay somehow got it together in the 2nd half. Immediately following the Rodgers interception in the end zone, the very next play, Jaire Alexander came up with his 5th interception of the season to snatch momentum back to Green Bay’s side. The offense sputtered and settled for a FG, again. They would do so again following the De’Vondre Campbell interception. In the 2nd half, Green Bay allowed 100 yards on 22 plays (4.5 yards/play), on 4 drives, resulting in: a missed field goal; 3 interceptions.

Like the 2010 Super Bowl run, the Defense had to completely take over the game and ice it in the end. An all too familiar requirement for the NFL’s all-time highest paid player.

3rd Downs: this shows where the Packers may have stolen a victory. Green Bay converted just 2 of 14 (14.3%) third downs. Truly atrocious, especially in major situations needed. They did convert 3 of 5 on fourth down, with Rodgers’ only TD pass coming on their 4th down at the goal line.

Current Standing~ Green Bay still sits in the 10th seed of the NFC. However, everything went their way on Christmas Eve. Seattle, Washington, NY Giants, and Detroit all lost on Dec. 24th, setting Green Bay up to make a considerable jump in probability to make the postseason. The Packers still need Washington to lose one of their remaining games (v Browns, v Cowboys). Prior to kickoff, the Packers will know if they control their own destiny as Cleveland visits Washington at Noon on Sun, Jan. 1. The Commanders decided to start Wentz over Heinicke, which is an assist as Heinicke has proven to give Washington the best chance at winning football games.