What a satement!!! I can’t remember a time where the Packers opened the season with such a proclamation. Jordan Love and the offense set the tone from the get-go. Green Bay took the opening kickoff and marched 83 yards on 12 plays and finishing in the end zone after a 5:34 drive. The ensuing Detroit possession was a 3 & out after losing 4 yards on the drive. The Packers followed it up with another scoring drive to take command of the game.
Detroit showed some life by putting together a 16-play, 78-yard drive taking off a whopping 9:31 off the clock, but settled for 3. After that kind of drive, had the Lions scored a touchdown, would’ve snatched momentum right back, however LaFleur dialed up a shot-play and the offense executed it to perfection. One play later Jayden Reed was hauling in a touchdown grab to (for all intents and purposes) ice the game. The defense, prior to the meaningless TD, had relinqueshed 181 yards and 6 points in the first 55:38 of the game. That’s incredible considering the Lions had the #1 offense (in scoring) last season. Just a bang up job. If you read last week, you’d know my concern was the rush defense and how it would hold up witih verteran Kenny Clark being traded to Dallas. The Packers held Detroit to 46 yards rushing on 22 attempts (2.1 yards/att.). Makes it difficult to lose when you stuff the run and make the opposing team 1-dimentional.
I like to review the team stats after each game to see if anything sticks out. After a loss, I always check two items: 1. Turnovers; 2. Time of Possession. While Green Bay lost the ToP (time of possession) category, mainly due to Detroit’s 9:31 drive, they controlled the game from the onset and dictated throughout. The 1 turnover in teh game was a direct impact from newcomer Micah Parsons. He made QB Jared Goff very uncomfortable causing him to get “happy feet” which no QB likes. With Goff’s inability to create space with his legs, he had to rush throws and Parson’s quick pressure caused the Evan Williams interception.
Anything to Clean Up?
Jordan Love was amazing on the first 3 drives of the game, racking up 184 yards on 21 plays, taking off 9:41 from the clock while putting up 17 points (5.667 points/possession). Absolutely dominant, however there were 2 plays that easily could’ve swung the game away from them and put Detroit in the driver’s chair. The first was a pick-6 Love threw while targeting Tucker Kraft. Brian Branch, who took Tucker Kraft’s helmet and tossed it on the opening drive of the season, came up with a pick-6, however there were 2 penalties on the play, both against Detroit – and both were ticky-tack, at best. Detroit CB, Rock Ya-Sin, was called for defensive holding nullifying the interception. By rule, it was defensive holding, however in the playoffs the refs likely let them play. The other penalty, which Green Bay declined, was on DE Adam Hutchinson, for hitting Jordan Love during the interception return. The rule is in place to protect the QB, however Love was heading towards Branch and Hutchinson put him on the ground…it’s football and these guys are wearing pads, but I digress.
All in all, a total team win and an A+ start to the season. Big test coming up in Week 2, and a short week at that!
The #7 seed Packers (11-6) travel to Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA to take on the #2 seed Eagles (14-3) this Sunday, January 12 at 3:30pm CST.
Packers- Season Review
The 2024 Green Bay Packers, while frustrating, have vastly improved from last season. The Packers improved offensively in rushing, total yardage, and points – as well as improved on the defensive side of the ball in rushing, total yardage, scoring and taking the ball away. Most importantly (aside from wins/losses, of course) Green Bay improved in their scoring differential from 10th (+33) to 5th (+122), which is the best determinate of a team’s true strength. The biggest change was the rush defense and takeaway difference, that’s all due to newly hired Defensive Coordinator, Jeff Hafley.
As alluded to above, the Packers are trending in the right direction. When a team rebuilds (new Head Coach and/or QB) it typically takes 4 years to compete for/win a Super Bowl.
1st Year – get experience and rebuild the roster identity
2nd Year – contend for/possibly make the postseason
3rd Year – make the playoffs/win a playoff game
4th Year – become one of the strongest teams in the NFL and compete for a Super Bowl
The Packers accomplished the 2nd/3rd-year objective in Year 1. They’re almost 2 years ahead of schedule. That much be kept in mind should Green Bay fall short of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season.
The question now becomes, can Green Bay beat a “good” team? It’s a valid question as their best wins are against The LA Rams (when they were missing both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua), the Houston Texans (they haven’t looked nearly as good this year vs. last season), and the Seattle Seahawks (while going 10-7, missed the playoffs). Green Bay is a better team than last year, but the top tier teams in the NFC are better than the top tier teams in last year’s NFC. It comes down to turnovers and slow starts. Should Green Bay be able to score at least field goals on their first 2 drives instead of settling for punts or putting the ball on the ground, that would go a long way into setting them selves up to beat a “good” team.
Who Are the Philadelphia Eagles?
The 2024 Philadelphia Eagles have been the 2nd best team in the NFC the entire regular season. After beating Green Bay in the season opener in Bazil, the Eagles inexplicably dropped a home game to Atlanta, then two weeks later dropped a game to Tampa Bay (who knocked them out of the playoff a season ago). From there, they went on a 10-game winning streak until Jalen Hurts was knocked out of their Dec. 22nd matchup vs. Washington and they lost that game late. The Eagles’ defense has been superb under Vic Fangio, ranking in the top 10 in all categories (rushing, passing, total yards, and scoring) along with having 26 takeaways (6th). However, the Packers did hang 29 points on them in that Week 1 matchup, but most of that came after the 1st quarter after Love and LaFleur settled in. Green Bay would likely need to come out aggressive – while still focusing on the rush game – to open up that Philly D.
Matchup
The Eagles did draft Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean to severely help their secondary from last season. DeJean is beginning to play quite a bit more now, but Mitchell has been a stud all year for Philly. As you can see, they’re 1st against the pass in the entire league, and they’re 1st in the NFL in yards given up by a whopping 32.8 yards/game. That’s incredible, considering the rest of the league is then separated by 1-2 yards/game per ranking. The method to combat this is to find explosive plays – which is going to be tough because the Eagles don’t allow those – and getting takeaways. Giving Jordan Love a short field to with which to work, will vastly increase the Packers’ chances of putting up points.
As I’ve stated before and will die on this hill, there’s almost no reason to “go for it” on 4th down in the 1st half instead of kicking a field goal, unless you’re in a weird area of the field (say the opposing 40 to 45 yard line), just take the points. Especially in the red zone. While scoring touchdowns in the red zone is one of the biggest determining factors in the outcome of a game, not taking those 3 points almost always comes back to bite later in the game and changes the decision-making, putting your offense in an unnecessary hole.
How Does Green Bay Win?
As always, show me the QB that played better, and I’ll show you the team that won. This always doesn’t come down to pure statistics, but managing the game outcome to a win. There will be 3-4 huge plays in this game and the QB that comes up with those will win. The only negating factor to that are turnovers. They’re such a momentum changer and overall equalizer, that’s always the focus for every team every game.
In order for Green Bay to come out victorious they’ll need to play at least an A- game. Getting 2+ turnovers while not committing any themselves, getting sustained drives and converting 3rd downs will be the key. Keep your defense off the field and wear down theirs. Philadelphia has the overall best defense in the NFL and keeping them on the field getting gassed is the best way to break them.
Should Green Bay continue their run-heavy focus, especially in the 1st quarter, that should go a long way to wearing down the defense in the later parts of the game. We’ve seen this in the recent games vs. Detroit and Minnesota. “Slow starts” however keeping with the ground game eventually opens up the run and pass lanes later in the game with lesser pass rush. That said, taking a few shots early and being aggressive is always welcome, especially in a win-or-go-home game. Packers being ahead of schedule are essentially playing with house money and hopefully will play loose.
Prediction Time
Let’s see how rusty Jalen Hurts is after not playing since December 22nd, and only playing 12 snaps at that. If Green Bay can take advantage and get a jump on them early, say jumping out to a 14-0 or 14-3 lead, the fans may turn on their Eagles and it could get ugly.
I see this being a close game, regardless of the outcome. GO PACK GO!
Karl Brooks (#94) registers Green Bay’s only sack against Minnesota. (photo credit: Emma Pravecek; packers.com).
What seemed like a very bland gameplan (likely by design) by Matt LaFleur and the Green Bay Packers, the Vikings were able to control the entire game and Sam Darnold had all day to progress his reads and pick apart the injured Packers’ secondary. Even with not scheming up exotic blitzes and pass rushes, the Packers were able to hold Minnesota to just 69 yards rushing on 26 attempts (2.7 yards/carry). When Green Bay did get pressure on Darnold, he was terrible. On the first 3 pressures from the Packers, Darnold airmailed a pass through the end zone, took a sack, and rushed a read that was intercepted by Carrington Valentine.
There were 3 bright spots from that Viking game.
Speaking of Carrington Valentine – he’s been one of my favorites since he was forced into action as a rookie last season. He seems glued to his WR when in Man Coverage and finally was able to come up with some plays over the last few weeks.
Edgerrin Cooper – for a few weeks now, he’s really come on and is putting together enough good play to make you have to assume he’s just that good.
This team never stopped fighting. That’s the thing with a young team, the Packers are too young to know better that the “game was over.” They keep fighting, and it’s a great trait…now just get off to better starts.
The game actually got off to a solid start until new fan-favorite, Josh Jacobs, put the ball on the ground. Losing his 3rd fumble of the season, that must not happen in the playoffs, otherwise it’ll likely spell doom for Green Bay.
To recap, I firmly believe the Packers (on both sides of the ball) kept the gameplan bland intentionally to not put anything on tape for their potential playoff matchups…whether that’s Philadelphia, Detroit, or Minnesota. There’s a high probability that if Green Bay were to reach the Super Bowl, they’d have to face all 3. While the coaches didn’t prepare specifically for THIS game and to win it, it doesn’t mean the better team didn’t win…catch that? The Vikings have proven they’re the better team and are 2-0 vs. Green Bay, and should be. However, while it’s been well-documented that the Packers are 0-5 against teams “better than them,” the Packers are more than capable of beating any of these teams, and you should expect them to.
(4-12) Chicago Bears @ (11-5) Green Bay Packers
This game is the epitome of “throw the records (and stats) out the window.” This will be Chicago’s Super Bowl, again. Green Bay has an 11-game winning streak vs. the Bears and Chicago is a mess. The Bears are in search of a new Head Coach and for 3 consecutive QBs, they’ve fired the head coach within that QB’s first calendar year. Not a recipe for success, but what do you expect?
While I said you can throw the stats out the window, it’s important to view them to see truly where each team stands in the NFL. Green Bay is top-10 in every ranking aside from Passing Offense (12th), Passing Defense (17th), and Giveaways (T-11th). That’s as balanced a team in the entire NFL. The truest stat for Power Rankings (in my opinion) is overall point differential. Green Bay sits at 5th in the NFL where Chicago ranks only 23rd while riding their 10-game losing streak. That alone would tell you Chicago is “better” than their 4-12 record while Green Bay destroys teams worse than them and barely loses to better teams.
Since this game is essentially meaningless, again, Green Bay should come out and try to beat Chicago with scheme, preparation, and overall execution. You always want to head into the postseason on a good note and plus, especially for the fans, adding to the winning streak over the rival Bears is a nice touch.
Speaking of the postseason, the Packers received word that they’ll be without their great Cornerback, Jaire Alexander, which is a huge blow, but the Packers are used to playing without him by now and need to find a pass rush to help out the secondary. What was a silver lining from the Vikings game, was Darnold had to go to his 2nd, 3rd, and sometimes 4th read – meaning the secondary had everything blanketed for 3-4 seconds, but without ANY pressure, Darnold just stood there and was able to wait for guys to uncover. Just getting pressure to move the QB off his spot might be enough for the secondary to do its job.
Since this game will likely be treated as a tune up fo the playoffs, we may see a ton of Malik Willis and a backfield consisting of Wilson and Brooks. My guess is Love starts and plays the 1st half while Malik comes in and takes over after halftime. The Packers should still win as they can run the ball effectively and operate a bit of play action, which Malik has shown to be phenomenal at this year in the snaps he’s taken. Expect Green Bay to do a few shot plays in the 1st half to put some things on tape for the Eagles (likely opponent) to have to scout for and the Defense to have a much better outing than they did in Minneapolis a week ago.
Prediction Time
Look for the Packers to get out and control the game from the onset. I think they’ll take the ball first should they win the coin toss and try to get out to an early lead by trying out some new things and close the game out late.
The Packers did what they were supposed to do and took are of business in their cleanest game of the season. The Saints came in, already a bad football team, with a slew of injuries to their top players. Essentially, Green Bay was facing a bad team’s backups, and it showed.
While New Orleans had a ton of injuries the Packers weren’t immune to missing some of their top players as well. For the billionth time in his career, Jaire Alexander wasn’t able to go (and likely won’t against Minnesota despite having been a full participant in practice for the last few weeks) and neither were Quay Walker, Evan Williams, and Javon Bullard. All of these players will be necessary to have on the field should Green Bay have hopes of fulfilling their goal of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
New (Inevitable) Star is Rising
Edgerrin Cooper has made a huge impact in the last 2 games. (photo credit: Evan Siegle; packers.com)
You never want injuries, however there are instances where they can help a team in the grand scheme of things. For instance, Quay Walker not being available forced Hafley’s and LaFleur’s hand in playing their standout rookie, Edgerrin Cooper. For consecutive weeks now, Cooper has transformed the defense and brought an instinct and speed to a position that many felt was lacking. I believe getting Quay AND Cooper on the field at the same time would enable them to do many things to disrupt offenses, if used properly.
The main concern coming from the Saints game was there were a few instances of wide-open targets that their backup QB just flat out missed. Some of those came on crucial 3rd downs which playoff QBs will hit. Moving forward, you’d have to assume Jaire Alexander won’t be out there and the secondary is what it is, very opportunistic, but susceptible at times against good teams. Green Bay, ‘nor any defense, will shut down every play for an entire game, but there are always things to work on and improve – the Packers have accomplished this with their pass rush (which in turn aids the secondary) and now need to focus on better, more consistent, coverage when the pass rush doesn’t get home.
Great Balance
Looking at the rankings entering Saturday, December 28, 2024, Green Bay runs the ball 3rd most in the NFL, in terms of ratio. The Packers are running on 51.6% of their plays, which is awesome. Anything > a 50% ratio means you’re committed to the ground game and likely will wear down defenses, even if you’re not having much run success in the early goings of a game. Once a defense wears down, you can essentially dictate what you do in the 4th quarter. However, if you are able to run the ball early you’re able to do anything. Pass, run, play action, trick plays, etc., they’re all available if you’re able to run the ball effectively. This sets up LaFleur’s offense beautifully and is how you win playoff games.
Another trend from this chart you may notice is all of these teams are either playoff teams, or in the hunt of the playoff chase (Indianapolis). This isn’t a fluke…also, the biggest change of these teams is Washington, having passed the ball on 66.13% of their plays last season, then hired Dan Quinn, drafted Jayden Daniels (always was the clear better option than Caleb Williams), and committed to the run, a change of almost 15%. They were bad last year, now they’re 10-5. Not a coincidence.
Can Green Bay Beat a Good Team?
While this game isn’t meaningless for Green Bay, it means a helluva lot more to Minnesota. The Vikings have control of their destiny to obtain the highly-coveted 1-seed (should they win v. Green Bay then next week v. Detroit). The Packers are locked into either the 5, 6, or 7-seed, but if they win 1 of their remaining two games, would guarantee either the 5th or 6th seed. Where this game is important for Green Bay is to see if they can log their “best win of the season.”
It’s been well-talked about, that Green Bay’s only losses have come to the teams ahead of them in the NFC. While that means they don’t have a “bad loss,” it does say that they’re not able to beat any of the teams necessary to advance in the playoffs. The Packers wins have come against teams with a combined record of 69-99 (.411), and their four losses against teams with a combined record of 51-9 (.850). If you break it down, the Packers have a record of 3-4 against teams with a winning record. Not bad, however the only teams they’ll likely see in the playoffs that they’ve beaten is the LA Rams…and Green Bay caught them without their top 2 pass catchers and a couple of key defenders. Since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have returned to the lineup, LA has been 7-2 with convincing wins vs. both Minnesota and Buffalo. They could be a force to be reckoned with, and their 9-6 record is misleading, considering they “lost” to Chicago and Arizona in the early part of the season.
How Good is Minnesota?
Considering the Vikings are tied for the 2nd-best record in the NFL, it’s safe to say they’re pretty damn good. However, just how good are they? Minnesota has won 8 straight, but struggled in their last game @ Seattle, winning 27-24 after trailing much of the game. Green Bay handled Seattle for the entirety of their matchup…while I don’t like playing the “same opponent in recent weeks” game, it’s all we really have to go on aside from the total season stats. If you’ve been following along for the past few years, you know I weight point differential heavily on “true strength” of a team. It typically goes hand-in-hand with the overall W/L record, but not always. However, if you’re 13-2, your point differential will be high unless you’ve won all close games and were blown out in those losses. Minnesota’s 2 losses came in back-to-back weeks, narrowly losing to Detroit and dropping a game to the Rams by 10.
The Vikings rank 5th in point differential and have the 2nd best defense against the run. They have given up the 3rd most yards through the air (ranking 30th in the league in pass yards given up per game), but still have a top 3 scoring defense. They’re one of the more well-balanced teams in the league, but not as balanced as Green Bay, across both sides of the ball in each phase. On paper, this is about an even a matchup as there is in the NFL. It’s strength vs. strength in almost every category, but the Packers have been rolling on offense as of late, scoring 30+ points in 5 straight games and holding their opponent to less than 20 points in five of their last 6 matchups.
It’s difficult to say where either team has an advantage, but it goes without saying that Minnesota’s stud WR corps of Justin Jefferson (#18) and Jordan Addison (#3) have combined for 148 receptions for 2,193 yards and 18 touchdowns. Jefferson has torn up the Packers when Jaire Alexander hasn’t been on the field…and newsflash, he likely won’t be again. As stated above, it’ll be on the Packers’ pass rush to get after Darnold quickly to not allow him to get into a rhythm and get the ball to his playmakers. If they do, Aaron Jones still is a weapon out of the backfield in the pass game (totaling 42 catches for 348 yards and 2 TDs). Edgerrin Cooper likely has his hands full balancing pass rush, run gap assignments and covering #33 out of the backfield.
Many say it’ll be a shootout, but I see it a bit differently, as each of these defenses are really good and late in the season, defenses usually have the advantage over good offenses. Jordan Love needs to turn up his production and hit some big plays to open up the Vikings’ D and make life a bit easier. Getting up 2+ scores will be paramount as Minnesota can sling it and score quickly, especially in the dome.
Prediction Time…
This has all the makings of a tight game, with Minnesota having far more to play for than Green Bay. Will the Packers be able to match the Vikings’ urgency?
Rookie LB, Edgerrin Cooper (#56) had his best game as a pro. (photo credit: Evan Siegel; packers.com)
Green Bay played their most complete game of the season – at least vs. a worthy opponent – by getting out to a perfect start. The Packers set the tone off their first 2 drives of the game by running 18 plays for 143 yards, taking 10:30 off the clock and scoring 14 points on them…absolutely beautiful.
The Packers were able to stick with the run game gaining 140 yards on 34 rush attempts (4.1 avg.), and controlled the game from the onset. QB Jordan Love didn’t have an incompletion until the 3rd drive and even at that the pass was right there and had Doubs picked it up in the air, it would’ve been a TD.
The other player that flew under the radar was Christian Watson. #9 had 3 receptions for 56 yards plus a huge pass interference penalty for another 39 yards. Essentially finishing with 4 grabs for 95 yards…he really stresses the defense with his speed and when he shows a knack for catching the ball – as he did on that sideline throw – he’s a weapon.
In the postgame locker room speech, Head Coach Matt LaFleur gave out two game balls:
Romeo Doubs: 3 catches; 40 yards; 2 TD (he too had a PI for 34 yards, and didn’t see his other target which would’ve been another TD).
Edgerrin Cooper: 7 tackles; 2 tackles for loss; 1 sack; 1 INT
Cooper played his best game as a pro and this is why many have wanted him playing all season long. He can cover the pass and rush the passer creating havoc in the backfield.
Another player who’s performed fairly well for his expectations this season has been Keison Nixon. While known as a solid kick returner, he’s filled in admirably for the Packers in their secondary. He made a few plays that aren’t memorable, but during the game he shows his solid tackling ability. That’s a huge part of this defense is limiting YAC (yards after catch), and he’s been very solid all year with this.
Also, while I’m not a huge fan of PFF (Pro Football Focus), they have solid ratings from time to time and when they align with what my eyes tell me, it’s worthwhile to share. I always thought Carrington Valentine was our #2 corner coming into the season (behind Jaire Alexander) and am happy to see him get a ton more snaps, he showed it against Seattle. He had a pass defensed in the red zone that he could’ve intercepted, then on the very next play dropped off his man in zone coverage and picked off his 1st pass in the NFL. Valentine getting these crucial snaps in big games can only help Green Bay for a deep playoff run.
Current Standing
The top 3 teams in the NFC didn’t change, however Minnesota clinched a playoff berth with the Packers victory over Seattle, then went on to crush Chicago to stay 2 games ahead (and own the tiebreaker) of Green Bay. Should the playoffs begin today, Minnesota would travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams, Washington would head to division rival Philadelphia to face the Eagles, and the Packers would meet up with the red-hot Buccaneers in Tampa.
As for New Orleans, they started the season as hot as anyone in football, blasting the Panthers in Week 1, 47-10, then boat raced the Cowboys 44-19 in Week 2. Since then, they lost 7-straight, got their Head Coach fired, and currently sit at 5-9 with only a -3-point differential (thanks to those first 2 weeks). While technically still alive for a playoff spot, the Saints are in shambles and don’t resemble a team fighting for its playoff lives. This is a good team for Green Bay to face to “keep the momentum rolling” heading into a huge matchup next week (mainly for the 5-seed in the NFC) in Minneapolis.
Matchup
On paper, this is an epic mis-match. Green Bay “shouldn’t” have any issues taking it to this team. However, that’s why they play the game… The Packers outrank the Saints in every category other than giving the ball away, which Green Bay has vastly improved with Jordan Love not tossing picks. The Packers have lost a fumble in each of the last 2 games, and that must improve as turnovers are absolute killers in the postseason.
New Orleans may be missing some of their playmakers which will give them an opportunity to build for 2025, but they do have some quality players on this team…mainly Alvin Kamara (HB #41) and a young stud Kool-Aid (yes his real name) McKinstry (CB #14) – but both are listed as QUESTIONABLE to play. In addition to them not being good, they’re also banged up and as long as the Packers treat this like they did Seattle, they should obliterate them in every facet of the game. Keep winning the time of possession, turnover battle, and penalties and the Packers should come finish off Week 16 on Monday Night Football with an 11-4 record.
Packers’ CB, Eric Stokes. (photo credit: Evan Siegel; packers.com)
This may have been one of, if not the, most one-sided officiated games I’ve ever seen. By count, the Lions benefitted, at least, 15 points from the zebras – the officials dictated the outcome of the game. With that being said, the better team still won.
Green Bay can’t start the game with Punt, Punt, and Fumble on their first 3 drives, falling behind 10-0, against one of the NFL’s top teams, especially on the road and expect to win. The deciding factor in the game was the defense getting absolutely torched in the throw game, especially on play-action and the screen game. The 3 phases the Defense must not allow, Detroit mastered and executed at a Super Bowl-winning level:
Play Action
3rd down conversions
4th down conversions
Play Action – Jared Goff’s stat line on play action was 14/18 (77.8%), 149 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, for a QB Rating of 119.2. That simply is unacceptable for a defense that’s striving to win a Lombardi Trophy. Detroit also converted 7-15 (46.7%) of 3rd downs, which would put them 2nd in the NFL if that was their season-long conversion avg. When you incorporate 4th downs, Detroit was successful on 4 of their 5 fourth down attempts. Essentially putting them at 11-15 on 3rd down conversions, with two of those resulting in touchdowns. The defense must be better, both in the pass rush and coverage. Missing Jaire Alexander (more on him later), Edgerrin Cooper, and Evan Williams definitely played into this.
What to Take From this Game
After sleeping on it for a few nights, Green Bay is still a full year ahead of schedule (rebuilds typically take 2-3 years to begin competing, the Packers did this in Year 1, at least a full year ahead), however it felt like the season was over for 1 reason. They couldn’t beat Detroit in ideal conditions on 7 days’ rest with Detroit missing their two beasts on the D-line, and Green Bay couldn’t run the ball…Sure Green Bay was missing guys too; however, everyone is beat up by December and very rarely in full health come postseason. The silver lining is Green Bay is still young (youngest in the NFL) and will only improve, but time’s running out.
Green Bay also needs to do a much better job of Time of Possession…the Packers currently rank 15th in the NFL, but having the 5th most rushing yards in the NFL, that ranking should be towards the top-10 helping their defense even more.
Current Standing/Situation
Standings as of 12/14/2024, after Thu Night Week 15 (LAR @ SF).
Green Bay currently sits in the 6th seed, still, behind Minnesota for the highest Wild Card seed and are essentially eliminated from the Division title and the highly-coveted 1-seed. It would still behoove Green Bay to win that 5th-seed as they’d face the worst Division winner in the Wild Card game and keeping away from Detroit as long as possible. There’s actually an outside shot they could host the NFC Championship game should Washington (currently the 7th seed) upset Philadelphia and Detroit to make the title game.
Seattle sits atop the NFC West (3-seed) with the Rams lurking, and should Green Bay beat Seattle, the Rams would overtake the lead in the division. This is a monumental game for Seattle as they’re 8-5 and falling to 8-6 likely would put them on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.
Matchup: Green Bay @ Seattle
Of the standings listed above, Green Bay holds the edge of rankings over Seattle 4:1. The Packers rank much better in rushing offense, total offense, rushing defense, and scoring defense vs. Seattle’s ranking in each department. However, the biggest discrepancy is Seattle’s passing offense vs. Green Bay’s pass defense, 3rd vs. 21st. That could be difference in the game on Sunday night considering the Packers had all sorts of issues getting Detroit off the field.
A good article, from ESPN.com’s Rob Demovsky, highlights where the Packers can expose Seattle’s defense and take control of the game. The last time HB Josh Jacobs faced Seattle (Week 12 of the 2022 season) he had a career game: 39 touches; 303 yards (7.8 yards/touch); 2 touchdowns. While I’d like to save Jacobs (limit his touches) for the postseason, he’s going to be required to tote the ball a ton for this offense to really hum. Should they ride Jacobs, Green Bay can control the ball and force Seattle into obvious pass situations, which is the Packers’ best bet to defend the pass…
The other way the defense can help itself is continuing to take the ball away. The Packers are tied for 8th in the NFL with 12 interceptions, while Seattle is also tied for 8th most in the league with 12 interceptions thrown. There’s an opportunity for Green Bay to take the ball away with the amount of passes QB Geno Smith throws over the course of the game. In addition, Lukas Van Ness has taken advantage of the opportunity presented to him (since trading away Preston Smith) by increasing his pressure rate and is continuing to show improvement – and I believe will only improve with the more reps he receives. The Packers must get after Geno Smith and get him off his spot, consistently, as they’ve given up the 9th most sacks in the NFL (40).
There’s History…
Green Bay hasn’t won in Seattle since 10/12/2008 (Aaron Rodgers’ first year as a starter). Every fan will likely remember the recent history, but there are 3 games that stick out in Packers’ lore:
For Green Bay to win, either their pass defense must show vast improvement or they generate a few turnovers/big plays. This is a much harder task given that Evan Williams is still in concussion protocol and Jaire Alexander is OUT (again), leaving their secondary depleted. It doesn’t help that CB Eric Stokes seems to be just a dreadful 1st round draft pick as he had a great rookie season, but was never able to return to form (let alone improve) following an injury in his sophomore season. The pass rush and secondary must come to play along with the offense putting up touchdowns to help this team beat a hungry, dangerous team on the road in prime time where a bunch of fluky crap happens.
Jaire Alexander
photo credit: Kevin Sabitus; Getty Images.
Both an enigma in personality and availability, Jaire Alexander is without question one of the NFL’s top corners when he’s on the field. Unfortunately for the Green Bay Packers, he’s only played 77 games (of a potential 114) since being drafted in the 1st round of the 2018 NFL Draft. What shouldn’t be ignored is he’s yet to miss a playoff game (6 for 6) and has played in game-changing form in each of those games. There’s a chance that Matt LaFleur and the Packers are being overly cautious with Jaire and resting him to ensure he’s as healthy as can be for the playoffs considering they’re almost essentially guaranteed a playoff spot with just 1 more victory this season. The challenge comes with his future at 1265 Lombardi Ave. as he’s under contract for another 2 seasons (2025 and 2026), but Green Bay has an “out” should they want to move in a different direction since he’s not reliable to be available…I’d keep him as finding a great corner is harder than finding a great QB, but if you’re not available…
Prediction Time
This will likely be a close game and it’s tough to call, but let’s hope the Packers get their most-impressive win of the season tonight…
Given all of the injuries at key positions Green Bay played about as complete a game as one could ask. While only scoring 6 points in the 2nd half, had the correct call been made on the deep shot to Watson in the 4th quarter, and the personal foul on Elgton Jenkins, Green Bay likely scores an additional 11 points (+4 on the TD vs. the field goal and converts a TD instead of punting on that drive. A final of 41-17 looks a helluva lot different than 30-17, but alas those plays/non-PI calls will happen, and yet Green Bay overcame them and completely outplayed Miami in every facet of the game.
Since the Bye Week, Green Bay has won 3 consecutive games and Jordan Love has played about as well as any QB in the NFL during this stretch. Love has completed 47 of his 68 pass attempts (69.1%), for 698 yards, 5 TDs and just 1 INT for a QB Rating of 120.8. That’s MVP-type production, and there has been a smattering of drops by open targets in each of these games. Should the Packers (mainly Dontayvion Wicks) clean up these drops, Green Bay will resemble the unstoppable force they showed to be late last season.
In addition to Love playing well, Josh Jacobs has really stepped up his play which unsurprisingly coincides with the offense running through him as the major focal point. While he was stymied by the Dolphins in the run game, Jacobs still produced getting 23 touches for 117 yards and another TD. Jayden Reed maximized his minimal touches, gaining just 47 yards on 4 touches, but finding the end zone twice.
The defense played well enough to win, with the key being they held Miami to only 17 points. They accomplished this by allowing only 39 yards rushing on 14 attempts (2.8 avg.) and coming up with a key goal line stand when it was only a 2-score game (27-11) with 9:33 left in the game. Had Miami scored there, at minimum it would’ve been a 10-point game with plenty of time left however, Green Bay stuffed them on 2nd down, forced an incompletion on 3rd down, and got a sack on 4th down. A great goal line stand against a very good offense that had little resistance marching up and down the field throughout the game.
WR (#10) Tyreek Hill catches a TD after Packers’ Safety, Xavier McKinney deflects it from intended target, Jonnu Smith. (photo credit: miamidolphins.com).
Concerns From The Game
1st – There were still far too many penalties, one of which essentially took a TD off the board, along with giving Miami second chances and stalling momentum on drives that could’ve made this an easier win than it ended up being.
2nd – when the defense didn’t get pressure on Tua, Miami receivers had plenty of space in the middle of the field for much of the game. The Dolphins converted only 4 of 14 third downs, but went for it on 4th down five times, converting 3 of those. Essentially, Miami went 9-14 on 3rd downs (64.3%), which simply can’t happen. Sure the 4th down stops came at crucial times, but a penalty wiped out a FG attempt and Miami converted the 4th down, for example.
Lastly – Green Bay has been much improved in the Red Zone on offense, but still needs to find a way to convert those to TDs vs Field Goals. One of which was that Elgton Jenkins personal foul. It would’ve been 4th & Goal from inside the 1-yard line, but instead were forced to kick the field goal after the penalty. These are very correctable mistakes and there have been fewer during the win streak, but these need to vacate the Packers’ stat sheet if they want to beat the top teams on the road in the playoffs.
Week 14: (9-3) Packers @ (11-1) Lions
Current Standing
Detroit currently sits as the 1-seed in the NFC Playoff Picture while Green Bay resides in the 6th spot behind Minnesota (10-2), and having already lost to each of these opponents, it’s essentially a must-win game for Green Bay if they have any hopes in winning the division, let alone obtaining the lone bye in the NFC.
Detroit has looked beatable in two of their last 4 games, having beaten Houston after throwing 5 interceptions and needing a Bears clock meltdown to come away with a victory over the choke-ridden Bears. If Green Bay can limit the penalties, not turn the ball over, and do a better job at the run game with Jacobs than they fared on Thanksgiving night, Green Bay has a real shot at winning this game.
Speaking to that, here’s a great explanation, while short, of Chris Canty explaining why he believes the Packers may be the best team in the NFL.
As you can see, Detroit is a juggernaut of an offense, ranking in the top 5 of every category, including 5th in time of possession. They can be had on defense, especially in the pass game. Their run defense is great as they’re usually out to a big lead and their opponents vacate the run and pass to get back into the game. However, keeping with the run is the best method to come back. It may take longer to score, but if a defense has to defend both the pass and run it increases the likelihood of actually scoring a TD which is the first goal. Green Bay should be able to move the ball on Detroit and if they’re able to jump out to a lead, like Houston did, they can generate some turnovers and must score touchdowns to put this team away as they can score from anywhere on the field at any time.
With the return of Romeo Doubs on offense the Packers should be able to exploit the Lions’ secondary and attack with Josh Jacobs to keep Jared Goff off the field. If Jaire Alexander is able to return that will give Green Bay’s defense a significant jumpstart. With Jaire on the field, they’re able to be a bit more aggressive in their coverages allowing for more pressures and a higher chance at mistakes and negative plays by the Lions. If Green Bay can keep Sonic & Knuckles (Gibbs & Montgomery) in check, like they did vs. Miami last week, the Packers will be in control of the game and should be able to dictate the outcome. If both offenses get rolling early and often, the crowd of Ford Field and the assertive nature by Detroit likely will be the difference in the game.
How Can Green Bay Win?
Control the clock, and you control the game. Take the shots when they’re there, otherwise take the checkdowns as the Lions are savaged with injuries on the defensive side of the ball and won’t be able to cover everything at every level. If the Packers are able to get the ground game working early, that’ll open the entire field up for their taking and Matt LaFleur has done an incredible job of exposing defenses during this win streak.
Here’s a good synopsis from jsonline.com writer, Ryan Wood…
Prediction
The Lions have an opportunity to eliminate the Packers from the division, realistically speaking (not formally), and have shown the mindset to stomp on teams’ necks when the opportunity presents itself. It’ll be a raucous environment on Thursday Night Football, and Green Bay will need to get the crowd out of it early by scoring touchdowns on long, extended drives. While the Packers boat-raced Detroit on Thanksgiving last year, the Lions have won 5 of the last 6 matchups. While I think the Packers can win, and if they play well for all 4 quarters, think they will win, I believe Detroit makes just enough plays to pull this one out.
In the latest installment of the oldest rivalry in the NFL, Green Bay travels to Soldier Field in search of their first divisional win of the season. The Packers lead the all-time series between these two rivals, 107-95-6, winning the last 10 matchups. The Bears have lost three straight games since starting the season 4-2 while Green Bay is coming off their bye week having dropped a sloppily-played game to Detroit in Week 9. Should Green Bay want to contend for the division title and perhaps an outside shot at the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs, they’ll likely have to win the rest of their remaining games assuming Detroit will drop another two games outside of their next matchup in Week 14 on Thursday Night Football. This begins the long stretch towards The Tournament to contend for the Lombardi Trophy, and hopefully the Packers will emulate their strong 2nd half of the season from a year ago and start strong coming off the bye.
Matchup
Based on the rankings above, it’s apparent where Green Bay has the advantage…the run game. Chicago is 24th in the NFL in rush offense, as well as 24th in the league in rush defense. Those are some of Green Bay’s strong suits. The Packers are 3rd in rush offense in the NFL and 10th in defending the run, and have improved over the last few weeks in that department. Where Green Bay has struggled, as I wrote last week, is in securing the football and taking it away. The Packers need to get back to their way of taking the ball away and converting those to touchdowns. They do that, and they’re back to one of, if not the, strongest teams in the NFL. Chicago has done a solid job in each of those categories ranking T-7th in takeaways and 6th in giving it away. Should Chicago want to get back on track and upset Green Bay, they’ll likely have to lead the turnover department, as well as time of possession and penalties (and yardage) assessed. The gameplan seems obvious for the Packers – run the ball, early and often!
Bye Did Some Good?
The Packers got very healthy while off on their bye week, essentially getting everyone back other than TE Luke Musgrave. They did however, see a setback in rookie running back Marshawn Lloyd, who was cleared to practice and anticipated to play before suffering appendicitis on Friday at practice (a non-football injury). The other notables returning to the field were stud corner Jaire Alexander, rookie sensation Evan Williams, and reliable snapper at center, Josh Myers. These additions alone may have been the difference in losing to Detroit 2 weeks ago, so to get them back is a huge step in the right direction for this team. Availability is the most important talent and can’t be understated it’s importance in December and January.
WR #13 Dontayvion Wicks drops a pass vs. Detroit at Lambeau Field on Nov. 3, 2024. (photo credit: Acme Packing Company).
Getting Dontayvion Wicks rolling again is essential for the Packers, and this week vs. a solid Chicago pass defense is as good a time as any. Wicks has shown to be one of the best receivers in the NFL in route-running by being able to get open as much as any player along with creating the greatest separation from his cover guy throughout the entire NFL. Getting him back in rhythm with Jordan Love will help each guy, not only their stats, but with putting games out of reach as they were able to do so in a few games late in the season in 2023. Tom Silverstein of jsonline.com had a solid article talking about the relationship between Love and Wicks and how they can regain their connection from 2023.
Who Are the Bears?
They’re still a poorly run organization, from the top down. It was clear from the onset of this offseason, at least to me, that this team didn’t really improve from last season. The defense essentially was kept the same, and while it’s “good” there are still some holes and the offense… As for the offense, the fan base (as always) talks as if they’re the Patriots with prime Tom Brady at the helm, still has glaring issues. Mainly the offensive line, which is still one of the worst in the NFL and it’s rearing its ugly head these last few weeks. During their 3-game losing streak, Chicago has given up 18 sacks (6/game) for 122 yards, has run 189 plays for only 690 yards (230 yards/game) and scored a combined 27 points (9 points/game). That’s abysmal, even for a “bad offense.”
While many say “Chicago is ruining Caleb Williams,” is there a chance he’s just not that good? Sure he won a Heisman Trophy and put up big numbers in college, but this is the NFL and collegiate production doesn’t necessarily translate to the man’s league. There are 3 quarterbacks I’d like to throw in the mix, with one of them being Caleb and let’s see if you can find the difference between them….
Que The Office meme picture of Pam saying “They’re the same picture.” In order, these quarterbacks are Mitch Trubisky, Justin Fields, and Caleb Williams. Now before you say, “Yes, but once Mitch and Fields left, they improved!” Not really, since leaving here are the stats of each QB:
While Fields has improved his numbers, those games were managed in a method of backup QB play, much like the Packers with Malik Willis. Ball control and stifling defense, for Pittsburgh. That’s essentially what these QBs are and seem to be. Caleb may improve (very likely given he’s a rookie with “generational talent), but there were a few people that thought he’s already at his ceiling…
Chicago has fired their Offensive Coordinator, Shane Waldron, after the latest atrocity Chicago refuses to fix the actual problem and slaps a Band-Aid on the open wound that requires major surgery…this could give the Bears a short-term boost, and put them in a spot that may give some false hope. While I could go down the path of Chicago beating Green Bay this week and winning a couple of more games for the remainder of the season is a GOOD thing for the Packers, I won’t as Chicago is likely to screw up the next 2-3 years anyway.
After re-watching the game, very apparent things become very transparent what will hold the Green Bay Packers back from coasting to a Super Bowl victory; the Green Bay Packers.
Green Bay was the better team in almost every facet of the game against Detroit (the league’s best team in my opinion), aside from execution – which is the most important. The massive number of mistakes are impossible to ignore:
Pick-6 (led to 7 points for Detroit)
3 poor snaps (taking at least 3 points off the board for Green Bay)
6 drops (two on crucial 3rd downs and another in the end zone, costing Green Bay at least 10 points)
Missed Field Goal, obviously wiping 3 points off the board for the Packers
Penalties – potentially wiping 7+ points off the board
Total all of those mistakes together and that’s a 30-point differential. Easy to play the what if game, but that directly turns a 10-point loss into a 20-point win. The Packers had no issue moving the ball up and down the field, totaling 411 yards to Detroit’s 261. The Packers had 7 drives end inside Detroit’s 40-yard line, resulting in only 14 points. Even if you kick field goals that’s 21 points and is a much different game just with that outcome.
Who Played Well?
Jordan Love drops unloads a pass vs. the Detroit Lions in Week 9 at Lambeau Field. (photo credit: Emma Pravecek; packers.com).
I’d argue Jordan Love looked extremely good, given the weather conditions, for a majority of the game. There were 2 poor throws (one poor decision, the other a straight miss) throughout the entire game. The pick-6 to Kirby Joesph was more of a good play by Joseph than it was a poor play by Love. Had the OL kept their blocks, they had a deep-crossing route wide open (Jayden Reed) for a 30+-yard gain, but tried to check down to Josh Jacobs due to the pressure and inability to escape. Aside from that, Love put the ball on the money throughout the game, and even if the Packers had just 2 or 3 drops, the results likely would’ve been much different. This bye week comes at a great time for Green Bay in hopes to clean up a lot of the pre-snap penalties and to get healthy, mainly Jordan Love’s groin/knee and Jaire Alexander’s hamstring.
Current Standings
As it stands now, the Packers are 3rd in their division, trailing behind Detroit and Minnesota – with Green Bay dropping each game against those rivals, at home nonetheless. The Packers will come out of the bye (hopefully) ready to take on the Bears at Soldier Field, with likely the #1 FOX crew calling the game. It begins the most important stretch of games for the Packers on the season. Currently holding the final playoff spot in the NFC (7th) with an opportunity to still catch Detroit should some things fall their way, Green Bay can only worry about improving upon themselves and stringing together consistent football for the remainder of the season.
Moving Forward
Mentioned above, the Packers have 8 remaining games, four of which will come against division opponents. Should Green Bay strive to win their division, let alone contend for the highly-coveted #1 seed in the NFC, they’ll likely have to finish the season 7-1 (very realistic) against similarly hungry teams remaining on their schedule. All of these are very winnable games, but the Bears will give their best shot (or at least their fans will), San Francisco is likely getting Christian McCaffery back, the Dolphins are now healthy and rolling, Seattle is vying to win their division, and the Vikings still have resemblance of a horseshoe stuck up their ass. It’ll be tough, but Green Bay is likely to be favored in all but 1 of their remaining games.
Should Green Bay finish 7-1, that would put them at 13-4, and if one of those wins comes against the Lions, or if the lone loss comes against Miami, that actually puts them in great shape to gain the #1 seed, however, that would mean Detroit has to drop 3-4 more games on their schedule, again, a big ask.
Trade Deadline
Newly acquired DE/EDGE, Preston Smith, practices for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The NFL trade deadline has come and gone, and while many fans wanted Green Bay to make a move, a major one, they chose not to. The Packers decided to move on from DE/Edge Rusher Preston Smith, who wanted to be traded as he wasn’t a fan of the new defense. Green Bay moving on from Smith frees up Lukas Van Ness, Kingsley Enagbare, and Arron Mosby to garner more snaps, and hopefully that generates a more consistent pass rush. We’ll see.
Again, there’s a lot to clean up, but even if Green Bay limits the drops and pre-snap penalties, they’re a favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy come February.
Keep in mind, this team is still the youngest in the league, and with that, you get mistakes…the good news, as the youngest team the liklihood
Keep in mind, this team is still the youngest in the league, and with that, you get mistakes…the good news, as the youngest team the likelihood of improving is higher than any other team. Especially given the amount of talent dispersed on this roster, that should be something to keep in the back of your mind as you watch them the remainder of the season.
(#56) ILB Edgerrin Cooper won Defensive Player of the Week. (photo credit: Evan Siegel; packers.com).
The Packers escaped Jacksonville with a win and their health. There were quite a few injuries in the game, most-notably QB Jordan Love, exiting with a groin injury. The one injury that may have had the most impact on the game was rookie Safety Evan Williams. Williams injured his hamstring, which is concerning because those seem to linger for quite some time. Once Williams exited, the Packers defense relinquished 20 points stemming from late 2nd quarter. The other rookie safety, Javon Bullard, struggled immensely in both coverage and tackling – which is odd considering he showed early on that he is a good coverage safety and an aggressive tackler. Should Williams continue to miss time, Bullard must produce and more importantly, the pass rush needs to find consistency.
As someone that beats the drum on scoring off turnovers, the Packers did a perfect job against the Jaguars – and that was, by far, the difference in the outcome of the game. The Packers committed 1 turnover, on a good play by the Jaguars corner, but the Packers followed that by intercepting (McKinney’s 6th) Trevor Lawrence on the ensuing drive. From there, the Packers scored touchdowns on each of their takeaways while Jacksonville committed a turnover on their ensuing drive from their lone takeaway. With Green Bay winning that battle 14-0, that was monumental for them to bring home the win.
Cover Boy
Standout rookie linebacker, Edgerrin Cooper, had a phenomenal game. Cooper logged 9 tackles, 1 sack where he forced a fumble that Green Bay immediately turned into a touchdown, and had a monumental pass breakup early in the 4th quarter on 3rd down to keep momentum for the Packers after Jordan Love had exited the game. Cooper keeps flashing and making plays the more snaps he garners.
Malik Willis has been the perfect backup QB. The unwritten expectation of backup quarterbacks is to win half the games you start. Well, Willis has started 2 games and played half of another, and Green Bay has come out victorious in all three appearances. Should Willis start this coming Sunday and win, we’re getting towards uncharted territory for a backup that will continue to be a backup as Love is still very good (yes, better than Willis) and is paid, but there definitely will be a market for Willis this offseason – and most of the credit goes to Willis for putting in the work. With all of this, Matt LaFleur should be front-runner for Coach of the Year. Here’s a prime example of why he’s so good, a great breakdown by Dan Orlovsky.
The Packers are dealing with quite a few injuries with key players. Not great timing considering the Lions come to town and look as though they’re the best team in the NFL, having the largest point differential in the league and having put up over 40 points in three of their last 4 games. QB Jared Goff in those games has gone 70/83 (84.3%), 972 yards, 10 TD, 0 INT for a QB Rating of 155.1. That’s absurd, and have come against solid teams in Seattle, Dallas, Minnesota, and the #1 defense in Tennessee. This does not bode well for Green Bay who has done a solid job vs. stiff competition, but without takeaways, (minus the Houston game) has relinquished quite a bit of yards – Detroit has done the best job in the league with converting drives to points. The Packers must take the ball away and convert those turnovers into touchdowns should they want to compete, let alone win the game.
Those injuries mentioned above, obviously Jordan Love being the biggest, however the most impactful one may be rookie Safety, Evan Williams. It turns out when Williams is on the field he’s a difference-maker and is solid in both the run and pass game. Compounding the issue is top-tier cornerback, Jaire Alexander, is also hurt and may miss the game, and that spells disaster seeing as the Packers can’t seem to generate a pass rush with 4 down linemen.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll keep beating the drum, the best indicator of a team’s true strength is Point Differential. The Lions rank 1st in the NFL with +100, while Green Bay is solid at the 8th spot at +46. Detroit also does a great job at limiting turnovers ranking 4th (tied with Pittsburgh) and is right up there with Green Bay for taking the ball away. The Packers will (as always) need to win the turnover battle, points off turnovers, and likely time of possession to come out with a victory.
What’s At Stake?
With a victory, the Packers would catapult to the 2nd seed in the NFC playoff race (assuming Washington beats the Giants) behind the Commanders who would have the tiebreaker with a better record vs. NFC opponents. However, should Detroit win, it would give them a large lead in the best division in football (NFC North) by having a 1.5 (+.5) game lead in the division over both Minnesota and Green Bay. While there’s still plenty of football left to be played, this is close to a must-win game for Green Bay to keep pace with Detroit, Minnesota, and Washington for that highly-coveted top seed in the playoffs, which would bring the only BYE in the postseason.
Assuming everyone can play (Love, Tom, Myers, Alexander, and Williams) at a high-level, Green Bay is very close to matching player for player with Detroit, but has yet to put a complete game together. What can be said is Green Bay seems to refuse to put a complete game together, however they also refuse to lose. The Packers are more battle-tested, and should this game come down to one possession, they just may be able to pull this one out.
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