Tag: nfl

Rebuttal…

Posted on by nzurich9
Linebacker, Eric Wilson (#45) had an outstanding game and made multiple plays in key situations. (photo credit: Evan Siegle; packers.com)

The Packers, and Jordan Love, showed extreme resiliancy throughout the entire contest vs. Houston. While the Texans were missing 5 defensive starters, they’re a very good football team that’s extremely well-coached, and it showed. Houston was able to generate pressure against, arguably, the best offensive line in the NFL and forced an interception by doing so. Love had a few miss throws/decisions that led to 2 interceptions, but he kept slingin’ it. With 7 total lead changes throughout the game, the Packers had multiple (6) drives when trailing. Of those six drives, the Packers scored on 4 of them, accumulating all of their 24 points in doing so, with the last drive securing the victory in walk-off fashion.

This 6 drives went as so:

  1. 3 plays, 8 yards PUNT
  2. 13 plays, 92 yards TOUCHDOWN
  3. 6 plays, 70 yards TOUCHDOWN
  4. 3 plays, 1 yard PUNT
  5. 9 plays, 71 yards TOUCHDOWN
  6. 8 plays, 44 yards FIELD GOAL

Here’s a look at how those drives came together…

That’s immense production, coming to 4 points/drive, which if that pace is kept all game, will lead you to well over 40 points in a game. A huge credit is owed to Jeff Hafley (Defensive Coordinator) and the Packers’ defense.

The defense allowed them to overcome a -3 turnover differential, which is nearly impossible, and losing the time of possession 31:17 to 28:43 and still win the game. Generating that much pressure kept C.J. Stroud in hell for much of the game, resulting in 55 net passing yards on 21 pass attempts. That’s incredible, nothing short of it. Of Houston’s 12 drives, the Packers forced 6 punts, with another being a kneel down to end the half. To put it in Points Per Drive perspective, the Texans scored 1.83 points/drive, whereas Green Bay scored 2.18. There’s the difference.

Cover Pic

Eric Wilson has now had 2 games where he’s been an absolute game-changer. Wilson logged 6 tackles (all solo), with 4 tackles for loss (TFL) and 2 of those were sacks. He also had a great pass breakup on a key 3rd down in the 2nd half. Another great play, aside from the 2 sacks and pass defensed, was reading a screen pass to Joe Mixon, who was gouging the Packers for much of the 1st half, form tackled him and set the tone for the defense in the 2nd half. My player of the game.

Too Many Mistakes

There is still a ton to clean up and we are now heading toward the halfway point of the season (which is wild because it feels like the season JUST started!) – and Green Bay continues to have plenty of penalties and miscues, especially on Special Teams. The Packers committed 8 penalties for 55 yards, all of which were costly. In addition, the Special Teams had a penalty on the opening kickoff costing the Packers 23 yards in starting field position. They also had a muffed punt and another where Jayden Reed caught a punt at his own Goal Line taking him into the end zone, and absolute no-no. Luckily Green Bay was able to overcome those and had zero kicking issues with newcomer, Brandon McManus. One last note about special teams…the Packers may have the best Punter in the NFL – Daniel Whelan. Whelan booted 5 punts for 284 yards, a 56.8 yard average, which is insane. Flipping the field each time giving his defense a better chance at stopping the Texans vaunted offense.

Who are the Jacksonville Jaguars? They’re a team with a highly-touted QB (Trevor Lawrence), and, what many believe (me included), a great head coach (Doug Pederson) – with a bunch of guys that can make plays, but the overall sum of the parts is flat out bad. The most productive portion of Jacksonville’s offense is the rush game (12th), and they’re 6th at stopping the run. Green Bay has done a solid job negating the run game from completely taking over the game, but still have been gouged at times. Green Bay has done a great job vs. the pass.

The Packers are a middle-of-the-road defense in essentially every category but are tops in the league by taking the ball away, even after not getting a single turnover in their last game. Jacksonville is very good at not giving the ball away (7 giveaways) ranking T-8th.  Green Bay and Jordan Love should have a great opportunity to have a big game through the air considering the Jags rank 2nd-to-last in the NFL in passing yards surrendered, with 273.9 yards/game. The Jags are also getting scorched in Points Given Up, ranking 2nd-to-last in that category as well. This is due to Jacksonville ranking 24th in 3rd Down Conversion rate at 34.18%, while Green Bay ranks 13th (40.48%), per teamrankings.com.

Green Bay’s defense accumulates sacks, ranking tied for 7th in the NFL with 20 sacks, along with the Seahawks, the Packers have done a great job generating pressure in general and making the opposing QBs uncomfortable. Jacksonville is average in sacks allowed, relinquishing 17 sacks, tying them with Pittsburgh, Los Angeles Rams, and the New York Jets for 14th. Green Bay can either generate turnovers and/or put pressure on Lawrence to for turnovers or end drives altogether. I believe both teams will attempt to establish a ground game, but if things go according to plan, the Jags will have to pass far more than they want to catch up to Green Bay, playing right into Jeff Hafley’s hands.

Predictions

Season: 5-2
Overall: 97-68

That’s About Right

Posted on by nzurich9
Romeo Doubs dives into the end zone. (photo credit: Evan Sigle; packers.com).

The Packers won in every aspect of the game, as they should’ve. Even at that, Green Bay didn’t play all that well, but limited mistakes which paved the way to a 21-point victory. Aside from sloppy footwork on a few throws, Jordan Love played safe, smart football. That translated to 22/32, 258 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT (WR slipped on perfect throw), 119.5 rating.

The best part that likely went unnoticed was Green Bay ran the ball 38 times (54.3%) for 179 yards (4.7 yards/rush). That’s a perfect ratio for success. Not only was it a balanced attack, the carries were split in a balance as well. Josh Jacobs had 18 carries for 62 yards, with Emanuel Wilson getting 7 for 54 yards. This commitment to the run game is the path to postseason success. Yes, you need production with it, however running the ball throughout the game wears the defense down which should turn shorter gains into bigger ones later in the game. It also opens the pass game up a bit along with play action making the offense as dynamic as possible. The time of possession comes with this too as the Packers possessed the ball for 36:35, bringing the Packers up to 6th in the NFL in time of possession averaging 31:55 per game. This helps the defense too…

Speaking of the defense, while we didn’t register a sack, they kept contain on Kyler Murray and pressured him enough to force poor throws. They did generate 3 turnovers on fumbles and again, only scoring 3 points off those turnovers. Green Bay missed a field goal, made a field goal, and ended the game, respectively, off each turnover. The Packers allowed 303 total yards on 10 Arizona drives, which is very solid against the now 15th-ranked offense. Kenny Clark still gets a play-wrecking push when not double-teamed and Rashan Gary was getting a considerable push on the edge throughout the game, while still not registering much in the QB pressure area. Green Bay will need to begin getting sacks when facing less mobile QBs, but as long as they can make the QB uncomfortable, that’s the primary goal as it leads to incompletions and interceptions.

Big Matchup

There are quite a few matchups in the NFL this week that will garner quite a bit of attention, with Houston visiting Lambeau Field as one of them. The Texans are 5-1, with their sole loss coming at the hands of the Vikings, while Green Bay has improved over the last couple of weeks and beginning to hit their stride.

The Texans present a major challenge on defense considering they have one of the brightest young QBs the league has seen in some time – or at least one of the most productive rookie QBs we’ve seen. Much credit should go to Green Bay native, Bobby Slowik, who had a nice article in espn.com, yesterday.

Houston features one of the best young QBs in the game, C.J. Stroud. Stroud will be missing his top target in Nico Collins for at least 4 games after he injured his hamstring in the team’s Week 5 win vs. Buffalo. They do have a familiar face in Stefon Diggs who spent his first 5 seasons in Minnesota. The running back situation for Houston is a bit up in the air as their leading rusher (Joe Mixon) is Questionable for the game, and considering Green Bay has a solid rush defense, this puts a bit more pressure on Stroud and the Texans passing attack, and hopefully Green Bay is able to create a few turnovers again. Scoring off those turnovers is always paramount and it will likely be the difference-maker in the result of the game.

The Packers lead the NFL with 17 takeaways and a +9 turnover differential, where Houston is tied for 14th with 7 takeaways and is tied for 13th with a 0 turnover differential. Green Bay needs to keep the turnover differential in their favor, especially when facing good quality opponents.

Jordan Love and his WR corps are hitting stride at a good time considering the Packers are entering the toughest part of their schedule and are in danger of falling further behind Detroit and Minnesota, but still have 5 divisional games left on their schedule.

Season: 4-2
Overall: 96-68

Preseason Over?

Posted on by nzurich9
QB Jordan Love (#10) launches a pass to Jayden Reed for a 53-yard gain in the 1st Quarter in Sunday’s win at SoFi Stadium against the Rams. (photo credit: Evan Siegle; packers.com).

On the first play of the game, LaFleur had a great play call to get the game going. It was a play-action, semi-rollout for Love to hit Dontayvion Wicks for a 20+ yard gain, but the throw was off by a considerable margin. There were plenty of throws that were just off. However, the misses were fewer and further between than the Week 4 matchup vs. Minnesota. After the 3-yard pick-six Love tossed when trying to avoid a safety, he locked in. I’d even make the argument the pick-6 was better than taking the safety in that situation. Had he taken the safety, the Rams get 2 points and the ball right away. Even if they settled for a field goal on the ensuing drive, that would’ve been a +5 point differential before half, but instead the Packers got the ball back and Love drove down for a field goal as time expired. Thus making that only a +3 point differential (as the Rams missed their extra point attempt).

Love Locked In

Since the pick-6, Love settled in:

  • 10/16 (completion/attempts)
  • 152 yards
  • 2 TD
  • 0 INT
  • 133.3 Rating

Entering the 2nd half, the Packers did what they’ve done all season, generated turnovers. Los Angeles’ first possession of the 3rd quarter ended in a fumble caused by Kingsley Enagbare, and recovered by, guess who, Xavier McKinney. From that point on, Jordan Love and Tucker Kraft put on a show. Keep in mind, the last throw by Love was a deep shot to Wicks down the right sideline, that Wicks decided to jump early for, misreading the throw, and it still hit him in both hands, but couldn’t come down with it. That would’ve iced the game, and had Wicks just kept running instead of jumping for it, might’ve been a TD. Either way, Love has now strung consecutive 2nd halves together and put on a solid show. In the 2nd halves in each of the last two games, plus the last drive prior to half of each game, Love has dominated…and keep in mind, that’s with many drops by all of his targets – not named Tucker Kraft.

  • 31/46
  • 439 yards
  • 6 TDs
  • 1 INT
  • 128.5 Rating

That’s incredible stuff. Essentially a game’s worth of snaps and 2 games worth of production. Even if he strings together just three quarters of a game, he should obliterate defenses, good ones at that.

Who Are the Cardinals?

The Arizona Cardinals visit Lambeau Field at 2-3 on the season, with impressive wins over the Rams (41-10) and 49ers (24-23) – outscoring San Francisco 14-0 in the 2nd half of that game. Both teams coming off a much-needed win and absolutely need another to keep pace in their respective divisions.

For consecutive weeks, the Packers will face an NFC West foe, and their defense isn’t good. The Cards rank near the bottom of the league in rush defense, as the Rams did last week. Green Bay didn’t commit to the run nearly as much as we want or need, but were quite effective. Look for Green Bay to get to a closer balance on offense with Love beginning to get his footing (as referenced above), and open up the run game for Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson. Much like the first 2 games of the season, Green Bay’s defense will be tested by an uber-mobile QB in Kyler Murray. Murray has elite speed and is a danger to take it to the house from anywhere on the field. My guess is the Packers will play contain on the front and look to stop the rush with their front 4. The pass rush stats may not accumulate again this week however, forcing Murray to beat you from the pocket with his arm is the way to go. It wouldn’t be a shock if Green Bay comes away with another 2-3 interceptions. The main focal points for the Packers’ defense will be on rookie standout, Marvin Harrison, Jr. and TE Trey McBride. Harrison has 4 TDs on only 17 receptions, and will likely attract Jaire Alexander most of the game, should Alexander become available after missing the last two games.

If this is the game Jordan Love decides to put together more than 2 quarters of good play, the Packers could win handily and close out the game on the ground, which would be ideal. Green Bay is due for a stress-free win as the last one came in the Wild Card game in Arlington, TX against the Cowboys. Even then, Dallas scored 16 late points to window dress a bit.

Season: 3-2
Overall: 95-68

Close Ain’t Good Enough

Posted on by nzurich9
Photo credit: Alli Rusco – Minnesota Vikings

The Packers committed a flury of mistakes: 4 turnovers (3 interceptions, 1 fumble); dropped interception; multiple drops; 2 missed field goals; 8 penalties; multiple drops. Green Bay made a game of it, cutting the score to 28-22 with 10:16 left in the game. Eliminate just one of those mistakes and the argument can be made Green Bay comes out victorious. Minnesota was able to jump out to a 28-0 lead which essentially iced the game in the 1st half…essentially.

There’s Fight In This Team

Green Bay, and Jordan Love, settled into the game after a muffed punt by Minnesota to set up the Packers’ first score of the game late in the 2nd quarter. It was obvious that Love had little confidence in the injured left knee in the first half. He was able to drive the ball much better in the 2nd half and played fairly flawlessly until a poor decision to chuck one up in the end zone to Wicks when Safety Harrison Smith came free off the edge on a blitz. Love had Tucker Kraft wide open in the middle of the field for a 12+ yard gain, and what makes it frustrating is that came on 1st down.

What should seem like a broken record now, Jayden Reed is on the scene and is a legit top WR in the NFL. In his 2 games with Jordan Love this season, he’s totaled 23 touches, 427 yards, and 3 TDs. He’s a weapon and head coach Matt LaFleur knows how to get him the ball in space. Reed is dynamic and can really leverage a defense and showed it in this game vs. a top defense in the NFL.

Who Are the Rams?

The Rams enter this game with a 1-3 record, however that sole victory came against the San Francisco 49ers where LA found themselves trailing by double-digits, twice, in that game before coming back and icing the game. While San Fran hasn’t looked all that good since Week 1, they’re still uber talented and, like Minnesota, anyone that beats them should be taken seriously. QB Matt Stafford can still beat you with his arm and decision-making, but he has little to work with, being his top 2 targets are out with injuries. In the Rams’ last game in Chicago, they committed 2 turnovers which the first Chicago turned into a TD and the last ended the game. There should be opportunities for Green Bay’s defense to grab a few passes, and the Packers will need to convert those turnovers into touchdowns.

As you can see, the Rams suffer terribly on the defensive side of the ball. Love has done a great job of accumulating yards and points in the 2 games he’s played, and the Packers still rank 3rd in yards and 6th in points, with half of their games started by an inexperienced QB where they focused on the run game. Look for Green Bay to put up some serious yards and points in this game – at least they should.

There are 2 players to keep an eye on from the Rams side…Kyren Williams (running back) and rookie edge rusher Jared Verse. Williams has 86 touches for 326 yards, with 6 touchdowns in 4 games. Green Bay struggles a bit vs the run, but have shown improvement over last year and this will be another test as they’ve given up big plays and yards in the 2 games where they’ve faced solid rushing attacks (Phi and Min).

Verse doesn’t have a ton of stats piled up, yet, but he’s a potential star in the making and should test Green Bay’s offensive line in this game. Keeping him from Love will be paramount if the Packers want to tally up these yards and points, I’ve referenced…

Could this go Sideways?

The Packers have suspended WR Romeo Doubs for one game after he missed practice on consecutive days this week. There have been multiple reports stating varying reasons, anything from “Doubs is unhappy with his role in this week’s gameplan,” to him having anxiety issues, etc. Speculating is all we can really do as the team hasn’t really offered an explanation, but best-case scenario is this turns out to be a similar situation to the Jaire Alexander proclaiming himself captain when they faced the Carolina Panthers last year. This might be a move to send a message that no 1 player is bigger than the team and it’ll give him time to figure out whatever is plaguing him to miss practice.

Other than these distractions and injuries, it’s hard to imagine Green Bay having a problem with the banged up Rams. Then again, it’s the NFL and the Packers always seem to lose 2 games they have no business losing. If the Packers committ only half of the mistakes as they did against Minnesota, Green Bay should depart Los Angeles with their 3rd win on teh season.

Season: 2-2
Overall: 94-68

It’s a Big One

Posted on by nzurich9

First things first, let’s review the Packers excellent win in Nashville this past Sunday. Malik Willis executed to near perfection, again. He threw for 202 yards completing 13 of his 19 pass attempts (68.4%) and a TD to Emmanual Wilson. Willis also added 73 yards on the ground on just 6 attempts, along with a TD on the game’s first drive. The ole saying goes Just try to win half of your games with your backup. That would keep the team afloat until the starter returns. If Willis plays this Sunday and Green Bay loses, he’d still have accomplished his job by winning 2 of 3.

Much of the reason the Packers were able to win both of Willis’ starts is due to the defense. These last two weeks, the Packers have surrendered 12 points/game. That’s more than enough to get the job done, even with a backup quarterback. In those 2 games, the Packers’ defense has forced 6 turnovers, 7 punts, and 2 turnovers on downs out of 21 total drives. Meaning the Packers are allowing opponents to score on only 28.6% of their drives. They’re only scoring touchdowns on 14.3% (3 TDs) of those drives. While that’s a little nerdy, another way to look at it would be Points per Drive. Green Bay, the last 2 weeks, have yielded 1.1 points/drive, while scoring 2.3 points/drive. Ideally, as an offense, you want that number closer to 3 (ala a Field Goal every drive) as that’d put you close to 30-36 points per game, a healthy number.

Speaking of the defense, the pass rush came alive, as we expected them to facing Will Levis. Levis is mobile-enough, but not in the same class as Jalen Hurts or Anthony Richardson. The Packers pressured Levis almost all game and sacked him 8 times for a total loss of 56 yards. Don’t expect 8 sacks again, as it hasn’t happened for 20 years, but 3-4 sacks a game is a good target to hit, and essentially eliminates an entire drive of a game (acts as a turnover if you will).

Issues?

There are 2 things that stood out to me…first is penalties. The Packers committed 10 penalties for 75 yards. That’s far too many. The Titans only had 2 penalties, albeit crucial on the missed Field Goal attempt by Narveson, resulting in the Wilson touchdown. Left Tackle, Rasheed Walker, keeps finding himself in the doghouse for committing these and killing drives. This must be cleaned up, especially against better quality opponents.

The other issue I noticed after re-watching the Titans game was play action. Tennessee was able to gain significant yardage in the pass game off play action. It seemed the Packers played zone for much of the game, forcing Levis to beat them with accuracy, which he obviously wasn’t able to do. However, versus better quarterbacks, this is what killed the Packers under ex-Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry. The premise is that receivers will be covered quicker in zone and then uncover to wide open spaces, but the idea is the pass rush will get home and either sack the QB or force bad throws by the time the targets uncover. I’d expect a mix of zone and man coverage against Minnesota with Darnold playing well so far and having one of, if not the, top receivers in the NFL – Justin Jefferson – at his disposal.

Welcome a Familiar Face

The Vikings may be the surprise of the NFL, starting the season 3-0, two of those wins coming against quality opponents: San Francisco; Houston. Minnesota had traded up in last year’s draft to select J.J. McCarthy (QB – Michigan) after moving on from Kirk Cousins. McCarthy ended up inuring his knee this preseason and turned to Sam Darnold, a former 1st round pick for the Jets…Darnold finally finds himself in a good setup and is flourishing. The theme for the 2024 NFL season has been Coaching is Paramount. From talented Bryce Young being benched in Carolina, to Caleb Williams in Chicago, Justin Fields in Pittsburgh, hell even Malik Willis in Green Bay – production seems to come from good coaching in good situations.

While Sam Darnold (53/78, 657 yards, 8 TD, 2 INT, 117.3 RAT) is the surprise of the league – although this might’ve always been the best spot for his career to take him…dome, good offensive-minded coach, talent surrounding him, etc. – all eyes will be on former fan-favorite Aaron Jones’ return to 1265 Lombardi Ave. Aaron Jones is still a good human, and he’s leaning into the Vikings fans SKOL chant, just as he did with the Lambeau Leap – he’s a good person and great teammate. However, as soon as the ball is kicked, he’s the enemy, hopefully Packer nation doesn’t forget that…even with his heartfelt message to Packer fans this week

Aside from Jones, who’s averaging 18 touches and 108 yards per game this season, the other threat is obviously wide receiver Justin Jefferson (5 touches, 87 yards, and 1 TD per game so far). I’m not sure if there’s a way to take both guys away from the game, but shadowing Edgerrin Cooper on Jones (all he’s done is flashed and produced in his limited snaps), as he’s a freak athlete for an Inside Linebacker, and mirroring Jaire Alexander on Justin Jefferson, is likely Green Bay’s best shot. Keep in mind, in Week 17 of the 2022 season, Jaire absolutley shut down Jefferson. Jefferson’s stats from that game were 1 catch on 5 targets for 15 yards. I believe Jaire wasn’t even covering Jefferson on the one catch. Alexander screwed him up for the remainder of the season. To quote Wayne Larrivee, “Jefferson missed the flight back to Minnesota after the game because he was locked in prison.”

The Packers’ pass rush also has another opportunity to generate pressure on Sam Darnold. Their offensive line is susceptible to a pass rush. The Vikings have been able to survive it for the first 3 weeks of the season, and Darnold won’t hold onto the ball nearly as long as Will Levis did last week, but pressuring the QB is always a great thing as it’ll generate timing issues and potentially turnover-worthy plays. Zach Kruse on X, had a solid post showing the Vikings’ weaknesses. Should Green Bay be able to get a combination of 6 (sacks + turnovers), and with Jordan Love playing (hopefully), that may be enough to win the game for the Green & Gold. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams played, Love had made epic strides in his game and completely dismantled Brian Flores’ defense, which has shut down the 49ers and Texans these past two week, both very good offenses.

Matchup

The key matchup will be the Vikings’ 2nd ranked rush defense vs. the Packers top-rated rush offense. If Jordan Love ends up playing, the Packers likely won’t be running nearly as much, having run 90 of their 126 offensive snaps the last 2 weeks (71.4%), but setting the tone early by running is never a bad thing. I believe an ideal ratio would be 60:40 pass-to-run, with Love at QB. With passing more, that likely means more offensive snaps, if Green Bay can run 70 snaps this game that would put the rush attemps around 25-30, which would be ideal.

Prediction

Season: 2-1
Overall: 94-67

Brilliant Gameplan, Brilliant Execution

Posted on by nzurich9
Malik Willis (#2) unleashes a pass in the Home-opener vs. Indianapolis. (photo credit: Evan Siegel, packers.com)

Huge credit to newcomer, Malik, Willis, for executing an absolutely brilliant gameplan by Matt LaFleur. When things are tough, simplicity is usually the best method. Reminding me of Bill Belichick’s approach, (paraphrasing) “We attack the other team’s weakness.” Regardless of what you do well, attacking the opponent’s weakness is almost always the best plan. The Colts had given up 213 yards rushing to the Houston Texans in Week 1, and the Packers doubled-down on that approach in Week 2. Green Bay amassed 261 yards rushing on 53 attempts (4.9 avg.), setting the tone quite early and wearing out that defensive front for the remainder of the game. This allowed the offensive line to give Willis a clean pocket on the rare times LaFleur called for a pass, easing the task for the newcomer to execute.

On the times Willis did drop back to pass, passing lanes were there and receivers were open. LaFleur didn’t ask too much of Willis, likely giving him directions to “look for your first 2 open reads, if nothing is there, tuck it and take off.” That was clear to the fan watching the game, and the right gameplan all along. Minimize mistakes/negative plays (turnovers, loss of yardage) and forcing the Colts to beat you instead of beating yourself. All of this is great in theory during the week in prepping for the Colts – none of it works without execution from the offensive line. The OL played absolutely great, aside from Josh Myers’ 2 illegal man downfield penalties wiping out a touchdown and huge gain. The Colts didn’t sack Willis at all and rarely pressured him on his 14+ drop backs.

Josh Jacobs (#8) got in rhythm early and often vs. the Colts. (photo credit: Evan Siegel, packers.com)

Josh Jacobs showed why he was brought in to Lambeau carrying the ball 32 times for 151 yards. It had been some time since a Packers running back was able to handle that type of load…and take over a game by wearing the other team out. He also created many yards of his own, making the OL appear even greater than they were. Jocobs often makes the first man miss, and if there is only 1 defender, that turns into chunk yards, quickly. Explosion runs (12+ yards) are far more demoralizing to a defense than explosion pass plays (20+ yards). as all 11 are involved and running after the ball carrier. This is a glimpse of what we want (need) in January when the weather turns and we need pure ball control.

Turnovers

While Jeff Hafley’s defense has given up plenty of yards, especially on the ground and late in games, his defense does generate turnovers. It’s what you do on offense with those turnovers that often dictates the outcomes of games. The Packers intercepted Anthony Richardson on their 2nd drive of the game, and drove all the way down to the 1 yard line where Jacobs fumbled it into the end zone. Had he held on to that ball, it’s 17-0 and this game is entirely different. Likely a blowout and while we’re excited about the outcome, we’d feel even more confident had the Packers won 23-6 or better! From the 3 takeaways, the Packers scored 0 points, often a recipe for disaster, however that should’ve been 10 points — the aforementioned Jacobs’ fumble, and the other was a missed Field Goal. The last turnover came on the last play of the game, but still huge which sealed the victory. All in all, an incredible gameplan, effort, and execution on both sides of the ball resulting in getting in the win-column and getting in a good mood heading into Tennessee.

Matchup

The Titans are an interesting bunch. They too could easily be 2-0, but had QB issues in Week 1 at Soldier Field vs. Chicago and had a blocked punt in Week 2 vs. the Jets. Last week was a back-and-forth game, vs. a very solid defense, and were able to move the ball, but were ultimately held out of the end zone on their last drive of the game. Tennessee received the ball at their own 30 with 4:31 left on the clock, down 24-17. The Jets’ defense held the Titans by sacking Will Levis on a 3rd & Goal from NYJ’s 8 yard line, and forcing an incompletion on 4th & Goal from the Jets’ 14 yard line. This team is tough, and has a solid defense. However, the offenses they’ve faced have had problems of their own, and their QB doesn’t make things easier. The Titans are giving up 24 points/game (24 points in each game, actually) and have struggled to score 17, albeit vs. very very good defenses. The Packers’ defense will need to generate a strong, early, and constant pass rush on passing down to get Levis uncomfortable and force bad throws/decisions, because the Titans’ running game is likely to have success. Generating those turnovers AND SCORING TOUCHDOWNS OFF OF THEM will be paramount. Having Malik Willis’ “Redemption Game” (having being demoted to 3rd string in Tennessee before trading him to Green Bay) would be a great story, Jordan Love playing gives the offense the best chance to convert those turnovers to touchdowns.

The tricky thing about Tennessee, is while I believe their QB, Will Levis, isn’t all that good he has faced possibly the 2 best defenses in the NFL. The Bears and Jets can each cover quite well and get after the quarterback in the pass game. The Jets are also solid vs. the run, so to assume the Packers will have the same kind of success is dangerous. With that, Green Bay has shown the ability to generate turnovers, and Levis will make poor decisions throughout the game – catching those poor decisions will give Green Bay the opportunity to kill Titan drives and put points on the board.

Prediction

Regardless if Jordan Love plays, I think Malik Willis proved to many that he’s more than capable of handling the task from Matt LaFleur and winning a football game. Whether that’s through ground and pound, or through the air, he has the mind, tools, and legs to generate positive plays and is smart enough to keep the ball safe.

Season: 1-1
Overall: 93-67

What Did We Learn?

Posted on by nzurich9
Jordan Love helped off the field after injurying his left leg in the 4th Quarter (source: Doug Benc – AP).

Biggest Item…

Jordan Love’s MCL sprain. Win or Lose, in Week 1, if your star QB gets hurt, potentially for the season, that’s the almost the only item of concern. Love was listed as day-to-day with his MCL sprain. While initially when Matt LaFleur said someting along the lines of “If Love can’t go, Malik will be ready.” That “if” gave Packer Nation a shock of hope, at the very minimum, that the season isn’t over. We’ll see — I believe it’s gamesmanship by the Head Coach to force the Colts to prepare (even at minimum) for Love and to take a little bit of prep time off Malik Willis.

Eagles Game Review

The Packers and Eagles put up quite a bit of offense – each team amassing over 400 yards of total offense, with Philadelphia’s defense outperforming Green Bay’s by just enough to win the game. Love made a couple of crucial mistakes. He missed a few open receivers and threw behind a couple of others. The interception was a bit forced and the offense did not help itself when gifted back to back turnovers by the defense resulting in only 9 points off three Eagles turnovers. If you’ve been following along with me, you know the importance I put on Points off Turnovers. Philadelphia scored 7 off the sole Packers turnover, but that was a pivitol moment in the game and swung momentum completely to Philly’s side. Green Bay had the ball, momentum, and up 2 points with an opportunity to increase the lead to a 2-score game.

Typically, if you win the turnover battle, you win the game. However, the great equalizers are penalties, 3rd down conversions, and red zone efficiency. Neither team was great on 3rd down, but the Eagles committed fewer penalties and fared far better in Red Zone efficiency (25% vs. 50%). That was the difference in the game. On the first drive of the game, the Packers had a 3rd & 6 from the PHI 38, and like we’ve seen so many times with Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love caught Philadelphia with too many men on the field and delivered a touchdown pass to an open Jayden Reed. However, the Packers had too many on the field as well, nullifying the play and having to replay. Just another example of penalties wiping out a huge difference. That one cost the Packers 7 points, and when you lose by 5…

New Look Defense…Looks the Same?

Many fans jumped to the conclusion following the game of “Same ‘ole Packers’ defense.” However, that doesn’t tell the whole story. First thing to consider is Philadelphia may have the most loaded offense in the entire NFL. Their offensive line is top notch, Saquon Barkley is in the prime of his career, Jalen Hurts is very dangerous, their Wide Receivers are solid throughout, and their Tight Ends are in the tops of the league as well. The Packers defense set the tone and gave more than enough for the offense to jump out to an early 21-0 lead. I mentioned the penalty wiping out the Reed TD on the first drive of the game. Here are the Eagles’ first two drives:

  1. INTERCEPTION: 3 plays, -5 yards, 0:54 time of possession (McKinney’s INT gave the Packers the ball at the PHI 19).
  2. FUMBLE: 3 plays, -2 yards, 1:20 possession (Devonte Wyatt’s recovery gave Green Bay the ball on PHI’s 14).

Both of those turnovers only generated field goals. Both drives starting in the Red Zone. Should the Packers have converted those into touchdowns instead of field goals, that’s an additional 8 points. This was my focus throughout the game. Momentum is a huge factor in football and almost impossible to track/chart, but had the Packers gone up 21-0, even 14-0, that sets such a different pace for the reamainder of the game and the defense thrives off that momentum – not just the Packers defense, any defense.

Who Played Well?

Edgerrin Cooper, rookie ILB, lines up for one of his 11 snaps vs. Philadelphia. (Evan Siegel, packers.com).

The Packers rookie linebacker has flashed in camp and came in with high-potential. That seemed to translate in his few opportunities. There are two plays that, I believe, encapsulate the rookie linebacker’s ability. These 4 snaps give a solid look into his value and game-changing ability. He must play more considering Isaiah McDuffie was in “coverage” vs. Saquon Barkley on the Eagels’ first TD of the game. McDuffie is a nice back-up that can help in the run game. Cooper, as seen in some of those clips, can do both, espeically cover.

Jayden Reed had a breakout rookie season and showed signs of progressing even further. He had 2 touchdowns, each an electric play. All this tells me is that he needs to touch the ball as often as possible. He’s truly a game-changer and can take over a game. He proved it as a rookie, and had a phenomonal game. I’ll mention it a third time, he had a 3rd TD (first drive of the game) wiped out by penalty. The kid seems to be a stud, and the Packers have found themselves a great one.

The Colts took on the AFC’s version of the Packers, and had them on the ropes. Indianapolis kept responding to keep the game within a field goal, late. The Texans closed the game out with an 8-play, 25-yard drive that ate up the remaining 2:14 of the game. Houston prevailed with a 29-27 win at Lucas Oil Stadium, but there’s one play that showed what the 2nd-year Colts’ QB can do, a 60-yard bomb to Alec Pierce, a throw that only a few people on the planet can make. His stat line, however gives opportunity to a Packers’ defense to get right. Anthony Richardson completed only 9 of his 19 pass attempts for 212 yards (60 coming on that bomb), with 2 touchdowns and an interception.

Matchup

Indianapolis gave up 213 rush yards to the Texans. Even if Jordan Love can’t go, this is a great indicator that the Colts will have to load the box to stop Josh Jacobs and the Packers rush attack, making things just a bit easier for Malik Willis in the pass game. If Willis is the starter, look for a few end arounds by Reed and Watson to alleviate the interior of the defense and open up running lanes inside for the running backs. The Colts only had the lone turnover, but the Packes MUST capitalize on any/all opportunities when turnovers present themselves. Keep in mind Keison Nixon had a dropped interception that could’ve been taken back to the house for a TD in Brazil. Can’t keep doing that as dropped pick-6’s are essentially giving the opponent a TD if not worse.

Much has been said about the lack of pass rush vs. Philly, however it was clear the game plan was for the Defensive Ends (Gary, Preston, Van Ness, and Enagbare) to contain Hurts in the pocket and force him to beat them with his arm, which he “did.” Look for the same with Richardson, who is a great athlete as well and can dice you up with his legs. The difference? He’s not as lethal and accurate as a passer as Hurts, ‘nor does he have the same caliber of weaponry as the Eagles.

Prediction

It’s tough for me to figure out what Willis will do, should he start. He’s definitely capable of producing in this league. He’s a young, smart, and uber-athletic QB with a rifle arm — if he plays within the gameplan and takes some shots at the right times, he can torch teams. However, that is a lot of “ifs.”

Season: 1-0
Overall: 93-66

State of the Packers & The Draft ’24

Posted on by nzurich9
HB #8 Josh Jacobs and #29 Xavier McKinney, joined the Packers in free agency this off-season.

The Packers made a considerable splash in free agency again, much alike March 2019, when they signed Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Adrian Amos, and Billy Turner. All ended up, not only, being starters, but added considerable improvement to the team. Jacobs and McKinney should do the same. While the departure of fan-favorite, Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs is a better pure runner and should be more available. McKinney joins a secondary that was misused, and brings much-needed ball-hawking to the Safety position.

What Does This All Mean for the Draft?

Keep in mind, drafting for need is a loser’s play. Rookies are NOT the difference between a Super Bowl-winning team, and not. However, if a team approaches the draft by taking the Best Player Available, that almost always works in their favor. I’ve covered it many times, and I’ll summarize again:

  • Rule 1: Overpay no one. Meaning, regardless of how good a player is, do not overpay them. It will always cost you.
  • Rule 2: Do NOT draft for need. If you draft for need, you’ll continue to have more needs than you would should you fill your roster with the best players available. *Needs should be addressed by free agency, ideally with role players or spot-starter caliber players.
  • Rule 3: Do not draft the following positions in the 1st round: Wide Receiver; Running Back; Tight End; (most of the time) Interior Offensive Line (Guards and Centers).

Who Will/Should Green Bay Select?

The 2024 NFL Draft will take place on Thursday, April 25th – Saturday, April 27th in Detroit, MI.

There are a ton of prospects that Packer Nation wants. The best part is, much like the “experts,” fans are clueless as to who their team is actually targeting, and almost always way off on the prospect turning out in the league. The best bet is to look at trends, and the trends, especially for the 1st round are highlighted in my rules above. Another trend is that Iowa Hawkeyes tend to turn into great pro players. Their program must do a great job at preparing their prospects to succeed in the NFL. There are countless examples, even just in recent Packer history, of Hawkeyes producing at a high level. Therefore, before all of the hype, I wanted the Packers to select CB Cooper DeJean, from Iowa. These Hawkeyes all seem to have the right mindset to approach being a rookie in the NFL, couple that with the fact they’re incredibly athletic and smart, regardless of position. It’s demanded of them in their program, and it shines at the next level.

Potential 1st Round Selections by Green Bay (and some names to keep in mind).

This is a list of players that could easily be taken by the Packers in the 1st round. Some could even fall to their 2nd round selection (41 or 58). Any of these players would be a solid addition to the roster, and any of the Tackles (OT) could/should start from day 1.

What Will It Look Like?

This is one of the many mock drafts I’ve completed, but should Latu fall to the Packers at 25, it’s a safe bet GM Brian Gutekunst would pull the trigger and take him. Also, depending on his grading and what’s available, he could trade back to add another couple of picks later in the draft or in future drafts. It’s likely Green Bay adds all of these positions, early, as the talent of this draft is fairly balanced and loaded with talent. Don’t be surprised if the Packers finish the draft (not just the 1st round) taking EDGE, OT, iOL, TE, and HB. The Packers have 2 solid HBs currently rostered (Jacobs and Dillon), but will likely add another 1-2 players that could turn out to be the eventual #2 behind Jacobs as early as this year.

GO PACK GO!!!

Strong Promise

Posted on by nzurich9
Jordan Love escapes the pocket and fires a pass while being chased by 49ers’ edge rusher, Nick Bosa.

The game went almost exactly like the season for the Green Bay Packers. There was a promising start with some mistakes that could’ve really taken a hold of the game – the Savage dropped INT was the game-changer – but then looked like this team was suited for destiny, only for additional mistakes to give it away.

Defending the Kicker

I’m of the few that’ll defend rookie Kicker Anders Carlson, the main reason is this team was crafted to be a contender in 2025, and was continued to be built that way throughout the season. This is holds true for the kicker position. The Packers have had a stable of solid kickers as much as they have Quarterbacks. Carlson has shown the ability to kick long distances with ease, and working to address that would’ve seemed like a desperation move thinking this opportunity (to make a Super Bowl run) won’t happen again – or that it was pure “luck.”

Patience is an under-appreciated asset in professional sports, using it will almost always be the correct method.

Jordan Love

He’s likely to be paid, possibly the largest contract in NFL history, this offseason. However, regardless whether that happens or not, the pressure will be ramped up due to the expectations of everyone now…he’s the guy. The bar that’ll be set is he’ll be expected to be a top 5 quarterback in the NFL for the upcoming years – with the surprising (to some) finish to the season, the 5-year window to win a Super Bowl begins in 2024… how fun is this?!?!

Recap

From a Packer fan perspective, it’s tough to not be frustrated with how this game played out. There were more than ample opportunities to win this game. However, as stated above, this game played out like the season. Green Bay was young, athletic, and super talented…but young… The mistakes added up too much and San Francisco is tough to beat when playing perfect ball, but turning it over, essentially 3 times is giving away too many points. The key mistakes were (ranked in order of importance):

  1. Savage’s dropped pick-6
  2. Love’s mortal sin to end the game
  3. Love’s 1st interception, while on 3rd & long, swung momentum to SF
  4. 4th & 1 not conversion (regardless of spot issue, etc), acted as a turnover

Heading into next season, Green Bay needs to do a much better job at taking the ball away from the opposition. In this monsoon of a game, credit the 49ers for not committing a turnover…yes, Purdy could’ve thrown 3-4 interceptions, but by Green Bay allowing those to become incompletions, that’s the difference in the game.

This game might’ve been the NFC title game. Yes, Detroit is playing well again, but Green Bay went into Ford field on Thanksgiving and blasted the Lions. We’ll see how the Lions fare on the road vs. San Fran, but it just seems like this game, the winner will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. After that, who knows what’ll happen, but this Packers team shows strong promise.

Season: 5-14
Overall: 92-66

Playing Loose

Posted on by nzurich9

If you had fun last Sunday, just wait until this Saturday night should Jordan Love accomplish what Aaron Rodgers never could, beat San Francisco in the playoffs. Green Bay is now officially a full year ahead of schedule, yet has an opportunity to really exorcise some demons…while Brett Favre had little issue with San Francisco, recent memory isn’t so kind — potentially setting up an NFC title game in either Tampa Bay or Detroit…both would suck to lose, but let’s get there first.

Arguably the Best Team in the NFL

As you can see, the 9ers lack weakness, but they have been beaten 4 times in games that mattered. San Fran experienced a 3-game losing streak, but since corrected it, rattling off six consecutive wins. However, there are two games that stick out as to how & why the Packers can win.

  • Oct 23, 2023 – L @ Minnesota, 17-22

Minnesota was able to get good QB play from Kirk Cousins, on primetime nonetheless! The main trend was turnovers and time of possession, both won by Minnesota. The Vikings were able to get only 7 points off 3 turnovers, but one of the turnovers they missed a field goal and the last one ended the game.

  • Dec 25, 2023 – L v Baltimore, 19-33

Much like the loss to Minnesota the Ravens’ defense suffocated Purdy early. Baltimore scored 17 off 5 San Francisco turnovers. That’s actually leaving some points on the table, but it paved the way. The only team that can survive 5 turnovers is Seattle facing Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs…apparently.

Players To Watch

Akin to the Cowboys, San Francisco has a ton of players that could be listed, on both sides of the ball. It’s apparent the Packers will need to generate turnovers to win the game, and they’ve come in short bunches for the 9ers. Somehow, Green Bay’s 28th rush defense will have to slow down the best running back in the NFL, Christian McCaffrey and the 3rd-ranked rushing attack. While Green Bay didn’t stop Dallas from running wild, they did jump out to a lead where the run game used up too much time later in the game for Dallas to comeback. That strategy may be the key to beating San Francisco…jump out to a big, early lead and force San Fran to forego the run game and rely on your MAN COVER corners to keep it in check.

Other potential Game Wreckers:

  • Nick Bosa, #97 DE
  • Fred Warner, #54 LB
  • George Kittle, #85 TE — especially after what Jake Ferguson did in the middle of the defense last week, this could be a problem…

Prediction

Packers 27 (+9.5)
49ers 34

Season: 4-14
Overall: 91-66

Here’s to hoping the trend continues!