Green Bay is one of, if not the, best teams in the NFL. They’re tied for 3rd in point differential (+23) meanwhile Cleveland is on the opposite end of the spectrum, currently 0-2 and a point differential of -25 ranking 30th in the NFL. The Browns are working through a rebuild, of sorts, needing to identify a Quarterback of the future, but have Joe Flacco manning the helm right now and is quite serviceable. The Browns have talent, but they’ve been on the struggle bus for some time now.
Prime Matchup: Defenders?
This game will feature the best 2 pass rushers in the NFL. Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons are the premier pass rushers and can wreck a game on their own from the defensive side of the football. We, as Packer fans, now know how good Micah Parsons is, but this will be a good look at how effective Garrett is for the common fan. Meaning – if all-world RT Zach Tom is unable to go, rookie Anthony Belton will have the greatest test a rookie can be tested with…facing Myles Garrett. Depending how Cleveland decides to use Garrett, likely shifting all over the field pre-snap, the Packers might be able to alleviate some pressure on Belton with counters and play action, but this will be a tough test regardless.
Matchup Matrix
These teams boast 2 of the best defenses in the NFL, at least through 2 weeks. They also have the top 2 rush defenses in the NFL. Cleveland also ranks #1 in total defense (yards given up/game), however they’ve been done in by turnovers. This will be the key to the game, as the only way Cleveland will be able to win this game is by winning the turnover battle, they may have to win it by 2 or 3.
When the defense is on the field, they’ll have the advantage in this game, for both Green Bay and Cleveland. Again, whichever teams takes care of the football and is able to get some chunk plays, will win the game. The Packers enter this game as 7 ½ point favorites and it could be tough to cover unless their defense generates a couple of short fields off turnovers.
Prediction Time
Whichever team is more effective vs. the other’s outstanding pass rusher will come out victorious. I should elaborate a bit more on that – for Cleveland that is a must, Green Bay might be able to get away with Garrett wreaking some havoc.
The reigning NFC 1-seed and NFC North Champs head to Lambeau Field on Sunday, September 7th to take on the news-making Green Bay Packers.
Detroit is coming off their best season in franchise history, and retained many of their players however, lost both of their coordinators (OC Ben Johnson and DC Aaron Glenn). Due to these departures many claim that Detroit will have a “fall off” season. I believe they’ll drop their win total a bit, but not due to the coordinators vacating, but due to Washington exposing them in the playoffs last year. Let’s keep in mind, Dan Campbell is a master motivator and a very good Head Coach. With that, he depends on his coordinators and positional coaches to scheme for the team. Time will tell if the Lions can retain their spot atop the NFC, but that’s awfully hard to do when you don’t lose your brain trust.
Matchup Matrix
Detroit was the best team in point differential a season ago, while Green Bay finished 6th in that category. The Lions’ defense was a problem for them, and the reason they got smoked in the Divisional Round vs. the Commanders last year. The Motor City Kitties were missing star pass rusher, Aiden Hutchinson, for a majority of the season and get him back – we’ll see if he’s back to full health. On the flip side, the Lions should have (one of) the best offense(s) in the NFL and a major victory for any team will be holding them to <30 points every game.
The 2024 Packers seemed like a team that never got rolling, and while it did feel like that (and is more true than not) Green Bay did improve their record from 2023 by 2 games while leaving 5 losses that easily could’ve (should’ve) been wins. This team is close and when they put together a game (they did 1-2 times last year) they’re unbeatable. This matchup could easily be the best two teams in the NFC, maybe the NFL and we get it in Week 1 in a divisional matchup!
We’ve covered the major acquisition (Micah Parsons) for the Packers as well as discussed, the major departures (Clark and Slaton) which will negatively impact the rush defense (ranked 7th against the run in 2024), but the biggest difference this season and what will propel the Packers to a Super Bowl championship aren’t those two areas…it’ll be the health and efficiency of their Quarterback, Jordan Love. In each of the previous 2 Hall of Fame QB’s Green Bay has had, in their 3rd seasons as starters, they had immense success:
2010 Aaron Rodgers: won Super Bowl XLV
1994 Brett Favre: took the Packers to the Divisional Round and lost to the Dallas Dynasty
This is Love’s 3rd year as The Man and a Divisional Round loss won’t cut it. However, Favre was only age 25 in his 3rd year starting while Rodgers and Love were 27. It’s been covered, but each of the previously mentioned Hall of Famers won Super Bowls in the year they turned 27…Love turns 27 on November 2nd this year.
What does this have to do with the game? Both of these teams’ expectations are to win the Super Bowl, and anything less should be considered a failure of a season. Expect a tight game, likely throughout with neither team having a lead larger than 14 points at any given time and it will come down to the last possession. If it’s a shootout, it favors Detroit as they have playmakers-a-plenty on offense and the Packers have a bunch of unknowns at defensive back (Nixon is solid)…Packer fans are not familiar with Hobbs (free agent signee from Las Vegas), and Bo Melton switched from WR to CB this camp and hasn’t played during live bullets.
As stated above, if the Packers can hold Detroit to less than 30 points, they should win and it would be huge considering Green Bay’s first 2 games are against 2 of the best the NFC has to offer – not only from a competitive standpoint, but the tiebreakers will be huge!
Prediction Time
Detroit boasts the better team as they’ve won 4 consecutive games in Lambeau Field. It’s time for that to change, but will it? I think with the addition of Micah Parsons, Green Bay has the tools to beat everyone, however he’ll likely be on a snap count (missing the entire Summer camp comes at a cost) as well as Jayden Reed missing significant time, among others (Hobbs, Lloyd, Love, etc.) there will be quite a bit of rust to knock off prior to playing their best ball.
In arguably the biggest non-draft acquisition since Reggie White, the Green Bay Packers have committed to NOW. The challenge for Packer Nation will be the increased expectations. This move isn’t to win a (singular) Super Bowl. This is to win multiple rings in the next 4 years. It’s a good thing. The team was trending to win a Super Bowl in this 4-year window prior to acquiring the best, youngest pass rusher in the NFL, however now that Parsons is here, it’s go time!
Akin to Reggie White, Parsons is the only player to have 12+ sacks in each of his first four NFL seasons, and with Green Bay acquiring him, it elevates the already heightened urgency at 1265 Lombardi Ave. Speaking of Lombardi, Micah Parsons will be the first Packer to don #1 since Curly Lambeau…drawing even more attention and expectations. All in all, this makes the Packers a much better team, but it came at a significant cost; two 1st round draft picks (2026 & 2027); DT Kenny Clark. While Clark seems old, he’s only 29 and likely has another 3-4 prime seasons left. If he doesn’t, then the trade favors Green Bay even more. The upside to this trade is that drafting/developing a Hall of Fame player is already hard enough, so when you can acquire one, it always helps.
This move may have happened due to Packers new President, Ed Policy, essentially communicating that “we’ll see” about Head Coach Matt Lafleur’s and General Manager Brian Gutekunst’s job security. That likely upped the urgency for them to make a splash now vs. waiting to see if the roster they rebuilt is in line to accomplish a goal worthy of hanging a banner in Lambeau Field – winning a World Championship.
2025 NFL Season…How Will It Play Out?
The NFL season kicks off tonight with the defending champs, the Philadelphia Eagles taking on the circus of the Dallas Cowboys. While Green Bay gave up quite a bit, the return of a 26-year old, Hall of Fame-pace, edge rusher seems like quite the deal…for the Packers. Most of the NFL world was shocked, as I was, to see Green Bay land Micah Parsons for only two 1st round picks and an aging DT in Kenny Clark. Leave it to Jerry Jones to bring the attention to the Cowboys, something they succeed at, consistently, whether it’s good or not.
How will the season shake out? Will Philly win back-to-back? Will Kansas City keep their reign of supremecy over the AFC? Maybe this is the year Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen finally get over the Chief hurdle and make the Super Bowl.
I, as every year, went through every game for every team, selecting a winner and loser so their records are appropriate based off those selections. Keep in mind, these records may be accurate, but it’s more likely the seeding is a bit more accurate than the records resemble.
I expect Detroit to have a bit of a setback, yes due to both coordinators leaving, but they’ve been riding high for 2 seasons and I believe Washington exposed Detroit in the Divisional Round last year. Detroit seems vulnerable to aggressive offenses…they’re still a very good team, but I don’t believe they’ll earn the 1-seed and will be in a fight for the division.
Buffalo is another team that may struggle a bit more than seasons past and while still very talented and well-coached, will likely “struggle” relative to what the Bills have been. There are always surprise teams, but there are teams I expect to take a jump. Most notably the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos. Both teams seem to be trending strongly in the right direction and put up a decent showing last season.
Wild Card Round
There are some great matchups, and I believe that San Francisco will be one of the strongest teams in the NFL this year and will show it by knocking off Detroit for the second time in 3 years. The Packers will get the up-and-coming Commanders, but must hold homefield advantage when they can…we shall see.
Divisional Round
The Packers have a chance at retribution against San Francisco, ideally beating them in a home playoff game and giving Shanahan a much-needed loss…considering Rodgers is no longer quarterbacking the Packers, this is a likely scenario.
Championship Sunday
One of the best sports days of the year, Championship Sunday. This poses rematches, on the AFC side a repeat of the 2021 (Jan ’22) AFC title game, and Burrow gets it done again. Sending the Bengals to the Super Bowl for the second time in four seasons. In the NFC, another Packers v Eagles playoff matchup. Expect the Packers to put forth greater execution, but the Eagles’ offensive line and Saquon Barkely are too much to handle with the absense of Kenny Clark and TJ Slaton on the D-line. This would set up a great star-studded matchup between Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts.
Philadelphia has the best roster for postseason success – a great defense, the best offensive line, the best running back, and a capable QB that is responsible with the football. That puts so much pressure on the opposition to be perfect and when there’s pressure to be perfect you get execution akin to the Packers in Philadelphia in last year’s Wild Card. The Eagles pose a huge threat to Cincinnati’s deficiencies (rush D and defense overall) that Burrow will want to get into a shootout, but Philly typically dictates the pace of the game and can win in any manner. The Eagles will hoist the Lombardi trophy once again…then again, I’ve been wrong many times before.
It’s been about 4 months since last entry — quite a bit has happened.
2025 NFL Draft — Green Bay, WI. It was a resounding success. Well over 600,000 people attended (officially), that passed through the turnstiles in the Draft Experience. Having attended all 3 days, I can assure you there were thousands more at the nearby bars and restaurants. With that, and to no one’s surpirse, Green Bay outdrank every other city that hosted an NFL Draft. Now to the important stuff.
It’s been well-covered, but for the first time since 2002, the Green Bay Packers selected a Wide Receiver in the 1st round by picking Matthew Golden, a speedster out of Texas. Golden has the ability to essentially do everything on the football field. The odd thing with him, is while he blazed the combine with a 4.29 forty yard dash, he’s not a “blow off the top” kind of guy. He’s a technician…meaning he relies on footwork and getting to his spot to get his production. That alone should signal great things for him in Matt LaFleur’s offense. Golden has also shown he’s great with the ball in his hands in space. He can get maximum yardage in almost any situation – should be a good pick.
The other 7 selections were comprised of 2 offensive tackles (can never have enough), another wide receiver (while slower than Golden, seems to play much faster when watching tape), an Edge Rusher (can never have enough of those as well), a LB, DT, and Corner. With all rookies, it’s impossible to tell whether they’ll pan out, but stacking up on multiple picks on the same position tends to give you a much higher chance of one of those positions panning out. If you’ve been reading along, you know how important the offensive line is to a football team – they can mask many warts.
The 2nd Biggest News Since…
Pro-Bowl, and big-time corner, Jaire Alexander has left the team. Jaire was cut on June 9th and the Packers will eat a substantial portion of his contract without getting anything in return for him, other than him holding a roster spot hostage. This was a tough decision as when he was healthy, he was the best cover corner in the entire NFL. He proved it in the playoff games he played, most notably in the 2020 NFC Championship Game when he followed WR Mike Evans beginning in the 2nd half and forced 3 consecutive Tom Brady interceptions (Jaire had 2 of them). He’s a big time player, however the best ability is availability and Jaire was simply not available. In the past 4 seasons, Jaire has missed 34 regular season games, literally half of the games played in that timeline. It sucked to see him go, however in the words of the late, great Ted Thompson, “It’s always better to let a player go a year or two early than a year or two late.”
While We’re Here — Preseason Game 1 vs. Jets
There was not much to love (pun intended) about the game. It is tough to judge a team based on preseason as other than the players and coaches, no one knows what the responsibilities are for each player on each play – they may have been working on certain techniques that typically wouldn’t be called in those game situations. Then again, they got absolutely dismantled in almost all phases of the game. The Quarterbacks all looked “good,” the issue being the drops. They plagued and ultimately sealed Green Bay’s fate in the 2024 season, and they seemed to have picked up (or lack thereof) where they left off last year. Regardless of how the offensive line plays (which they looked OK for the most part) or how accurate the QB is, if you can’t catch the ball…
The good news is the rookies looked fairly good…mainly 1st round pick, Matthew Golden, shined by snagging a slant route from Jordan Love and looked like a 5-year veteran in the process. Other than that, rookie offensive tackle, Anthony Belton, was mauling guys in the run game – a sight for sore eyes. The Packers definitely have a guy with some attitude that, if he turns it on, could be here for the long haul.
With all this, it’ll be interesting to see how these next 2 preseason games transpire and if they can gel to prepare for arguably the game of the year on September 7th vs. the Detroit Lions. We’ll cover this in the next entry, but with the quick BYE week (Week 5), the Packers have 2 tough opponents (Detroit and Washington, both teams that played one another in the NFC title game a season ago)…should Green Bay beat both and find a way to 4-0 heading into the BYE, that could really set the tone for the season. If they’re 2-2, or 1-3…they’ll be playing catch up the entire season and likely be on the road for the entire playoffs…assuming they make it.
It bears reminding everyone that Drafting For Need results in being able to fill needs with the draft, because you’ll have so many of them after a couple of drafts.
Where Do the Packers Stand?
Green Bay finished with the 7th seed in the 2024 NFC Playoffs, the 5th-best record in the conference, and tied for the 8th-best record in the entire NFL. Their Achilles Heel was losing all 6 games to oppoenents with better records than them last season (0-2 v Philadelphia, 0-2 v Detroit, and 0-2 v Minnesota). What’s troublesome is the Packers finished 1-5 in the division a season ago. Yes, while they had a bonehead play to lose to Chicago in the meaningless regular season finale, it still counts and the play did happen. Also, for the first time in many seasons, Chicago is actually building the proper way in the off season (offensive and defensive line). I still believe Caleb Williams isn’t nearly as good as advertised, but they’re going to be formidable in 2025.
What Picks Does Green Bay Possess?
The Packers have 8 total picks: 23rd (Round 1); 54th (2); 87th (3); 124th (4); 159th (5); 198th (6); 237th (7); 250th (7). It has been some time since the Packers didn’t have at least 11 selections (in 2021 Green Bay selected 9 players), so look for GM Brian Gutekunst to make a trade or two to move back and acquire more “swings at the plate,” which would rile up Packer Nation, especially if he trades out of the 1st round, while the draft is being held AT LAMBEAU FIELD!
What Areas/Positions May Green Bay Target?
The major question entering the 2025 NFL Draft is Jaire Alexander’s situation. While almost every article and X.com post written about him is that he won’t be on the 2025 roster, the way I see things is Green Bay is in need of cornerback, they have the best cornerback in the league on the roster, (now) on a favorable contract (relative to deals that have been given out to cornerbacks this offseason). While availability is the best skillset, corner is such a difficult position to find, keeping him seems to make sense.
With that it still would make a ton of sense for the Packers to use one of their first 3 draft picks on a CB. Other areas of “need” are Defensive Line (DL) and Wide Receiver (WR). If you’ve been following along, drafting WR in the 1st round is a wasted pick as there are so many WRs in every draft that the 1st-round value is weighted heavier on other positions where there aren’t as many from which to select. I see defensive line or cornerback as the likely first pick out of Green Bay this year, barring a stud falling to them at 23.
Who, Specifically, Could Green Bay Target?
Cornerbacks (CBs)—
Will Johnson – Michigan (17 overall rank per cbssports.com)
While 99% of fans want the flashy/shiny object. Winners are built in the trenches (assuming you have a stud QB that doesn’t choke). Don’t be shocked if Green Bay pulls the trigger on another OL or Edge Rusher. Fans would go bezerk, but you can never have enough offensive linemen or pass rushers, never.
There are two pass rushers that, theoretically could be available for Green Bay at pick 23: Mykel Williams – Georgia; Shemar Stewart – Texas A&M. Mykel Williams shined as an uber-athlete while at Georgia and was super productive during his time there. Stewart I’m not as familiar with however, he’s jumped up the draft boards since the end of the college season (always funny to me since no downs of football have been played since the National Title game). Both players seem to fit well in Hafley’s defense and I’d be pumped for either to join the team. Again, edge rusher is always a position where you can’t have too many good players.
Who Will Green Bay End up Selecting?
I’m torn, in multiple ways. I could easily see trading out of the 1st round (which wouldn’t be all that bad, because by all accounts, this draft is deepest in picks 20-50), acquiring another pick between that 30-50 could really boost this draft – and Gutey needs to hit a home run this draft.
Since it’s no fun to say “anything can happen” let’s guess…
Shemar Stewart of Texas A&M will be the Packers’ selection at 23 overall.
HB #8 Josh Jacobs and #29 Xavier McKinney, joined the Packers in free agency this off-season.
The Packers made a considerable splash in free agency again, much alike March 2019, when they signed Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Adrian Amos, and Billy Turner. All ended up, not only, being starters, but added considerable improvement to the team. Jacobs and McKinney should do the same. While the departure of fan-favorite, Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs is a better pure runner and should be more available. McKinney joins a secondary that was misused, and brings much-needed ball-hawking to the Safety position.
What Does This All Mean for the Draft?
Keep in mind, drafting for need is a loser’s play. Rookies are NOT the difference between a Super Bowl-winning team, and not. However, if a team approaches the draft by taking the Best Player Available, that almost always works in their favor. I’ve covered it many times, and I’ll summarize again:
Rule 1: Overpay no one. Meaning, regardless of how good a player is, do not overpay them. It will always cost you.
Rule 2: Do NOT draft for need. If you draft for need, you’ll continue to have more needs than you would should you fill your roster with the best players available. *Needs should be addressed by free agency, ideally with role players or spot-starter caliber players.
Rule 3: Do not draft the following positions in the 1st round: Wide Receiver; Running Back; Tight End; (most of the time) Interior Offensive Line (Guards and Centers).
Who Will/Should Green Bay Select?
The 2024 NFL Draft will take place on Thursday, April 25th – Saturday, April 27th in Detroit, MI.
There are a ton of prospects that Packer Nation wants. The best part is, much like the “experts,” fans are clueless as to who their team is actually targeting, and almost always way off on the prospect turning out in the league. The best bet is to look at trends, and the trends, especially for the 1st round are highlighted in my rules above. Another trend is that Iowa Hawkeyes tend to turn into great pro players. Their program must do a great job at preparing their prospects to succeed in the NFL. There are countless examples, even just in recent Packer history, of Hawkeyes producing at a high level. Therefore, before all of the hype, I wanted the Packers to select CB Cooper DeJean, from Iowa. These Hawkeyes all seem to have the right mindset to approach being a rookie in the NFL, couple that with the fact they’re incredibly athletic and smart, regardless of position. It’s demanded of them in their program, and it shines at the next level.
Potential 1st Round Selections by Green Bay (and some names to keep in mind).
This is a list of players that could easily be taken by the Packers in the 1st round. Some could even fall to their 2nd round selection (41 or 58). Any of these players would be a solid addition to the roster, and any of the Tackles (OT) could/should start from day 1.
What Will It Look Like?
This is one of the many mock drafts I’ve completed, but should Latu fall to the Packers at 25, it’s a safe bet GM Brian Gutekunst would pull the trigger and take him. Also, depending on his grading and what’s available, he could trade back to add another couple of picks later in the draft or in future drafts. It’s likely Green Bay adds all of these positions, early, as the talent of this draft is fairly balanced and loaded with talent. Don’t be surprised if the Packers finish the draft (not just the 1st round) taking EDGE, OT, iOL, TE, and HB. The Packers have 2 solid HBs currently rostered (Jacobs and Dillon), but will likely add another 1-2 players that could turn out to be the eventual #2 behind Jacobs as early as this year.
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