Green Bay is one of, if not the, best teams in the NFL. They’re tied for 3rd in point differential (+23) meanwhile Cleveland is on the opposite end of the spectrum, currently 0-2 and a point differential of -25 ranking 30th in the NFL. The Browns are working through a rebuild, of sorts, needing to identify a Quarterback of the future, but have Joe Flacco manning the helm right now and is quite serviceable. The Browns have talent, but they’ve been on the struggle bus for some time now.
Prime Matchup: Defenders?
This game will feature the best 2 pass rushers in the NFL. Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons are the premier pass rushers and can wreck a game on their own from the defensive side of the football. We, as Packer fans, now know how good Micah Parsons is, but this will be a good look at how effective Garrett is for the common fan. Meaning – if all-world RT Zach Tom is unable to go, rookie Anthony Belton will have the greatest test a rookie can be tested with…facing Myles Garrett. Depending how Cleveland decides to use Garrett, likely shifting all over the field pre-snap, the Packers might be able to alleviate some pressure on Belton with counters and play action, but this will be a tough test regardless.
Matchup Matrix
These teams boast 2 of the best defenses in the NFL, at least through 2 weeks. They also have the top 2 rush defenses in the NFL. Cleveland also ranks #1 in total defense (yards given up/game), however they’ve been done in by turnovers. This will be the key to the game, as the only way Cleveland will be able to win this game is by winning the turnover battle, they may have to win it by 2 or 3.
When the defense is on the field, they’ll have the advantage in this game, for both Green Bay and Cleveland. Again, whichever teams takes care of the football and is able to get some chunk plays, will win the game. The Packers enter this game as 7 ½ point favorites and it could be tough to cover unless their defense generates a couple of short fields off turnovers.
Prediction Time
Whichever team is more effective vs. the other’s outstanding pass rusher will come out victorious. I should elaborate a bit more on that – for Cleveland that is a must, Green Bay might be able to get away with Garrett wreaking some havoc.
The Packers were about as efficient as possible, outside of the penalties. Green Bay committed 10 penalties resulting in 77 yards, and countless points taken off the board (and some added to Washington). Had rookie RT Anthony Belton not committed a hold on Jayden Reed’s touchdown reception, and the Packers didn’t commit a defensive hold on Washington’s 4th down near the goal line, this game easily could’ve been 34-10, just on those two penalties alone.
National Perception
It’s been quite some time since the national media acknowledged the Packers as a true power in the entire league – deservedly so. Green Bay clearly looks to be a top 3 team in the entire NFL, along with Buffalo and Philadelphia. However, even each of Philly’s wins, they easily could’ve lost each game and Buffalo needed an epic comeback against another great team to not drop one.
This is the most-accurate power rankings I could find, I mean I could do it myself, but I’m not concerned with half the league as they won’t even be competing for a playoff spot come Thanksgiving. The top 3 teams are clear, as of now – consisting of Green Bay, Buffalo, and Philadelphia. Each have their flaws, but the Packers undoubtedly look like the most complete team of the 3 having beaten top tier opponents in dominant fashion. It’s a long season, however…
Team Stats
To further prove the Pack’s domination, they relinquished 230 yards across 65 plays (3.5 yards/play) and holding their opponents through 2 weeks to 2.4 yards/rush. They keep that up, it’ll be tough to lose a game unless you commit a bunch of turnovers in your own territory or ones that result in touchdowns (*cough cough* special teams).
The offense, again, has been efficient in ¾ of the games so far, the 3rd quarter is the missing factor. Green Bay has scored 3 points in the 3rd quarter through the first 2 games this season. While starting hot is great, coming out of halftime is a tone-setter for finishing the game. Again, this is nitpicking, but it’s something. Especially if Green Bay gets the ball to start the 2nd half, you want to come out and at least get points to keep momentum.
Tucker Kraft
Kraft had a coming out party on the National stage, but essentially every Packer fan knew who he was and what he’s capable of. This isn’t his first “huge” game and likely won’t be his last. The guy can do it all and he has the right mentality for that position – akin to an aggressive defensive player, takes the attack to his opponent, it’s refreshing. He finished the game with 6 receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown. He’s more than just a security blanket, but likely the most productive target for Jordan Love. Keeping him available and healthy will be essential for this offense and if it plans to accomplish what many believe can be…
Where Does This Leave Green Bay Now?
Again, while it’s still early, the Packers have put themselves in great shape to start the season and should be eyeing up the 1-seed (homefield advantage throughout the playoffs plus a Wild Card Round bye). Green Bay currently has tiebreakers over Detroit and Washington, whom everyone thinks will be there in the end of the season…assuming Detroit doesn’t finish with a better divisional record than Green Bay (belaboring the point – the Packers ended up looking more impressive after Detroit hung 52 on Chicago last Sunday), but Detroit is now 1-1 in the division.
The game coming up against Cleveland is your typical Trap Game, interconference opponent who’s 0-2, possesses a solid defense, and will be very hungry to get a win.
It’s the good guys in all-white…the Winter Warning is upon us, again. Tonight is a matchup of playoff teams from a season ago. The Commanders were the surprise of the 2024 season much like the Packers of the 2023, except they won their Divisional Round matchup at the 1-seeded Lions while Green Bay fell to the eventual NFC champion 49ers.
Week 2 Matchup
The Commanders struggled early with the New York Giants. Washington was able to control the game, but New York was in it for much of the matchup. Their defense shut down the G-men, however, Russell Wilson was complicit. Both defenses put forth good showings, however Green Bay’s was far more impressive as it came against 2024’s #1 offense.
Yes, this is only 1 game’s worth of statistics, so the sample size is as small as it can be, but it’s important to show what’s been done. Washington was able to run the ball while Green Bay passed the first test without Kenny Clark. This will be another test and holding Washington’s offense will first come from stopping the run. If play action is there for the taking, 2nd year QB, Jayden Daniels, will have the weapon of his choosing – whether it’s passing to a wide open receiver or taking off and ripping off huge chunks of yardage with his legs. He’s as dangerous a runner at QB as Lamar Jackson, and he might be more accurate. Generating pressure, quick pressure that is, will be paramount, but keeping the rush lane integrity will be just as important. There likely will be less stunts (D linemen shifting across the line to free up other rushers to penetrate) and more pure bull and speed rushes from the outside. Ideally, if the middle can generate a rush while the edges keep contain, that’s where you can get Daniels off his game and you can stifle this Commanders offense.
The other item, we always talk about, are turnovers. Generating them and not giving the football away. This is a great matchup and I fully expect each of these teams to make the playoffs once again, likely each winning at least a game. Whichever QB plays better (again, almost as always) their team will win the game…that comes with taking care of the ball (no turnovers).
What a satement!!! I can’t remember a time where the Packers opened the season with such a proclamation. Jordan Love and the offense set the tone from the get-go. Green Bay took the opening kickoff and marched 83 yards on 12 plays and finishing in the end zone after a 5:34 drive. The ensuing Detroit possession was a 3 & out after losing 4 yards on the drive. The Packers followed it up with another scoring drive to take command of the game.
Detroit showed some life by putting together a 16-play, 78-yard drive taking off a whopping 9:31 off the clock, but settled for 3. After that kind of drive, had the Lions scored a touchdown, would’ve snatched momentum right back, however LaFleur dialed up a shot-play and the offense executed it to perfection. One play later Jayden Reed was hauling in a touchdown grab to (for all intents and purposes) ice the game. The defense, prior to the meaningless TD, had relinqueshed 181 yards and 6 points in the first 55:38 of the game. That’s incredible considering the Lions had the #1 offense (in scoring) last season. Just a bang up job. If you read last week, you’d know my concern was the rush defense and how it would hold up witih verteran Kenny Clark being traded to Dallas. The Packers held Detroit to 46 yards rushing on 22 attempts (2.1 yards/att.). Makes it difficult to lose when you stuff the run and make the opposing team 1-dimentional.
I like to review the team stats after each game to see if anything sticks out. After a loss, I always check two items: 1. Turnovers; 2. Time of Possession. While Green Bay lost the ToP (time of possession) category, mainly due to Detroit’s 9:31 drive, they controlled the game from the onset and dictated throughout. The 1 turnover in teh game was a direct impact from newcomer Micah Parsons. He made QB Jared Goff very uncomfortable causing him to get “happy feet” which no QB likes. With Goff’s inability to create space with his legs, he had to rush throws and Parson’s quick pressure caused the Evan Williams interception.
Anything to Clean Up?
Jordan Love was amazing on the first 3 drives of the game, racking up 184 yards on 21 plays, taking off 9:41 from the clock while putting up 17 points (5.667 points/possession). Absolutely dominant, however there were 2 plays that easily could’ve swung the game away from them and put Detroit in the driver’s chair. The first was a pick-6 Love threw while targeting Tucker Kraft. Brian Branch, who took Tucker Kraft’s helmet and tossed it on the opening drive of the season, came up with a pick-6, however there were 2 penalties on the play, both against Detroit – and both were ticky-tack, at best. Detroit CB, Rock Ya-Sin, was called for defensive holding nullifying the interception. By rule, it was defensive holding, however in the playoffs the refs likely let them play. The other penalty, which Green Bay declined, was on DE Adam Hutchinson, for hitting Jordan Love during the interception return. The rule is in place to protect the QB, however Love was heading towards Branch and Hutchinson put him on the ground…it’s football and these guys are wearing pads, but I digress.
All in all, a total team win and an A+ start to the season. Big test coming up in Week 2, and a short week at that!
The reigning NFC 1-seed and NFC North Champs head to Lambeau Field on Sunday, September 7th to take on the news-making Green Bay Packers.
Detroit is coming off their best season in franchise history, and retained many of their players however, lost both of their coordinators (OC Ben Johnson and DC Aaron Glenn). Due to these departures many claim that Detroit will have a “fall off” season. I believe they’ll drop their win total a bit, but not due to the coordinators vacating, but due to Washington exposing them in the playoffs last year. Let’s keep in mind, Dan Campbell is a master motivator and a very good Head Coach. With that, he depends on his coordinators and positional coaches to scheme for the team. Time will tell if the Lions can retain their spot atop the NFC, but that’s awfully hard to do when you don’t lose your brain trust.
Matchup Matrix
Detroit was the best team in point differential a season ago, while Green Bay finished 6th in that category. The Lions’ defense was a problem for them, and the reason they got smoked in the Divisional Round vs. the Commanders last year. The Motor City Kitties were missing star pass rusher, Aiden Hutchinson, for a majority of the season and get him back – we’ll see if he’s back to full health. On the flip side, the Lions should have (one of) the best offense(s) in the NFL and a major victory for any team will be holding them to <30 points every game.
The 2024 Packers seemed like a team that never got rolling, and while it did feel like that (and is more true than not) Green Bay did improve their record from 2023 by 2 games while leaving 5 losses that easily could’ve (should’ve) been wins. This team is close and when they put together a game (they did 1-2 times last year) they’re unbeatable. This matchup could easily be the best two teams in the NFC, maybe the NFL and we get it in Week 1 in a divisional matchup!
We’ve covered the major acquisition (Micah Parsons) for the Packers as well as discussed, the major departures (Clark and Slaton) which will negatively impact the rush defense (ranked 7th against the run in 2024), but the biggest difference this season and what will propel the Packers to a Super Bowl championship aren’t those two areas…it’ll be the health and efficiency of their Quarterback, Jordan Love. In each of the previous 2 Hall of Fame QB’s Green Bay has had, in their 3rd seasons as starters, they had immense success:
2010 Aaron Rodgers: won Super Bowl XLV
1994 Brett Favre: took the Packers to the Divisional Round and lost to the Dallas Dynasty
This is Love’s 3rd year as The Man and a Divisional Round loss won’t cut it. However, Favre was only age 25 in his 3rd year starting while Rodgers and Love were 27. It’s been covered, but each of the previously mentioned Hall of Famers won Super Bowls in the year they turned 27…Love turns 27 on November 2nd this year.
What does this have to do with the game? Both of these teams’ expectations are to win the Super Bowl, and anything less should be considered a failure of a season. Expect a tight game, likely throughout with neither team having a lead larger than 14 points at any given time and it will come down to the last possession. If it’s a shootout, it favors Detroit as they have playmakers-a-plenty on offense and the Packers have a bunch of unknowns at defensive back (Nixon is solid)…Packer fans are not familiar with Hobbs (free agent signee from Las Vegas), and Bo Melton switched from WR to CB this camp and hasn’t played during live bullets.
As stated above, if the Packers can hold Detroit to less than 30 points, they should win and it would be huge considering Green Bay’s first 2 games are against 2 of the best the NFC has to offer – not only from a competitive standpoint, but the tiebreakers will be huge!
Prediction Time
Detroit boasts the better team as they’ve won 4 consecutive games in Lambeau Field. It’s time for that to change, but will it? I think with the addition of Micah Parsons, Green Bay has the tools to beat everyone, however he’ll likely be on a snap count (missing the entire Summer camp comes at a cost) as well as Jayden Reed missing significant time, among others (Hobbs, Lloyd, Love, etc.) there will be quite a bit of rust to knock off prior to playing their best ball.
In arguably the biggest non-draft acquisition since Reggie White, the Green Bay Packers have committed to NOW. The challenge for Packer Nation will be the increased expectations. This move isn’t to win a (singular) Super Bowl. This is to win multiple rings in the next 4 years. It’s a good thing. The team was trending to win a Super Bowl in this 4-year window prior to acquiring the best, youngest pass rusher in the NFL, however now that Parsons is here, it’s go time!
Akin to Reggie White, Parsons is the only player to have 12+ sacks in each of his first four NFL seasons, and with Green Bay acquiring him, it elevates the already heightened urgency at 1265 Lombardi Ave. Speaking of Lombardi, Micah Parsons will be the first Packer to don #1 since Curly Lambeau…drawing even more attention and expectations. All in all, this makes the Packers a much better team, but it came at a significant cost; two 1st round draft picks (2026 & 2027); DT Kenny Clark. While Clark seems old, he’s only 29 and likely has another 3-4 prime seasons left. If he doesn’t, then the trade favors Green Bay even more. The upside to this trade is that drafting/developing a Hall of Fame player is already hard enough, so when you can acquire one, it always helps.
This move may have happened due to Packers new President, Ed Policy, essentially communicating that “we’ll see” about Head Coach Matt Lafleur’s and General Manager Brian Gutekunst’s job security. That likely upped the urgency for them to make a splash now vs. waiting to see if the roster they rebuilt is in line to accomplish a goal worthy of hanging a banner in Lambeau Field – winning a World Championship.
2025 NFL Season…How Will It Play Out?
The NFL season kicks off tonight with the defending champs, the Philadelphia Eagles taking on the circus of the Dallas Cowboys. While Green Bay gave up quite a bit, the return of a 26-year old, Hall of Fame-pace, edge rusher seems like quite the deal…for the Packers. Most of the NFL world was shocked, as I was, to see Green Bay land Micah Parsons for only two 1st round picks and an aging DT in Kenny Clark. Leave it to Jerry Jones to bring the attention to the Cowboys, something they succeed at, consistently, whether it’s good or not.
How will the season shake out? Will Philly win back-to-back? Will Kansas City keep their reign of supremecy over the AFC? Maybe this is the year Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen finally get over the Chief hurdle and make the Super Bowl.
I, as every year, went through every game for every team, selecting a winner and loser so their records are appropriate based off those selections. Keep in mind, these records may be accurate, but it’s more likely the seeding is a bit more accurate than the records resemble.
I expect Detroit to have a bit of a setback, yes due to both coordinators leaving, but they’ve been riding high for 2 seasons and I believe Washington exposed Detroit in the Divisional Round last year. Detroit seems vulnerable to aggressive offenses…they’re still a very good team, but I don’t believe they’ll earn the 1-seed and will be in a fight for the division.
Buffalo is another team that may struggle a bit more than seasons past and while still very talented and well-coached, will likely “struggle” relative to what the Bills have been. There are always surprise teams, but there are teams I expect to take a jump. Most notably the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos. Both teams seem to be trending strongly in the right direction and put up a decent showing last season.
Wild Card Round
There are some great matchups, and I believe that San Francisco will be one of the strongest teams in the NFL this year and will show it by knocking off Detroit for the second time in 3 years. The Packers will get the up-and-coming Commanders, but must hold homefield advantage when they can…we shall see.
Divisional Round
The Packers have a chance at retribution against San Francisco, ideally beating them in a home playoff game and giving Shanahan a much-needed loss…considering Rodgers is no longer quarterbacking the Packers, this is a likely scenario.
Championship Sunday
One of the best sports days of the year, Championship Sunday. This poses rematches, on the AFC side a repeat of the 2021 (Jan ’22) AFC title game, and Burrow gets it done again. Sending the Bengals to the Super Bowl for the second time in four seasons. In the NFC, another Packers v Eagles playoff matchup. Expect the Packers to put forth greater execution, but the Eagles’ offensive line and Saquon Barkely are too much to handle with the absense of Kenny Clark and TJ Slaton on the D-line. This would set up a great star-studded matchup between Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts.
Philadelphia has the best roster for postseason success – a great defense, the best offensive line, the best running back, and a capable QB that is responsible with the football. That puts so much pressure on the opposition to be perfect and when there’s pressure to be perfect you get execution akin to the Packers in Philadelphia in last year’s Wild Card. The Eagles pose a huge threat to Cincinnati’s deficiencies (rush D and defense overall) that Burrow will want to get into a shootout, but Philly typically dictates the pace of the game and can win in any manner. The Eagles will hoist the Lombardi trophy once again…then again, I’ve been wrong many times before.
It’s been about 4 months since last entry — quite a bit has happened.
2025 NFL Draft — Green Bay, WI. It was a resounding success. Well over 600,000 people attended (officially), that passed through the turnstiles in the Draft Experience. Having attended all 3 days, I can assure you there were thousands more at the nearby bars and restaurants. With that, and to no one’s surpirse, Green Bay outdrank every other city that hosted an NFL Draft. Now to the important stuff.
It’s been well-covered, but for the first time since 2002, the Green Bay Packers selected a Wide Receiver in the 1st round by picking Matthew Golden, a speedster out of Texas. Golden has the ability to essentially do everything on the football field. The odd thing with him, is while he blazed the combine with a 4.29 forty yard dash, he’s not a “blow off the top” kind of guy. He’s a technician…meaning he relies on footwork and getting to his spot to get his production. That alone should signal great things for him in Matt LaFleur’s offense. Golden has also shown he’s great with the ball in his hands in space. He can get maximum yardage in almost any situation – should be a good pick.
The other 7 selections were comprised of 2 offensive tackles (can never have enough), another wide receiver (while slower than Golden, seems to play much faster when watching tape), an Edge Rusher (can never have enough of those as well), a LB, DT, and Corner. With all rookies, it’s impossible to tell whether they’ll pan out, but stacking up on multiple picks on the same position tends to give you a much higher chance of one of those positions panning out. If you’ve been reading along, you know how important the offensive line is to a football team – they can mask many warts.
The 2nd Biggest News Since…
Pro-Bowl, and big-time corner, Jaire Alexander has left the team. Jaire was cut on June 9th and the Packers will eat a substantial portion of his contract without getting anything in return for him, other than him holding a roster spot hostage. This was a tough decision as when he was healthy, he was the best cover corner in the entire NFL. He proved it in the playoff games he played, most notably in the 2020 NFC Championship Game when he followed WR Mike Evans beginning in the 2nd half and forced 3 consecutive Tom Brady interceptions (Jaire had 2 of them). He’s a big time player, however the best ability is availability and Jaire was simply not available. In the past 4 seasons, Jaire has missed 34 regular season games, literally half of the games played in that timeline. It sucked to see him go, however in the words of the late, great Ted Thompson, “It’s always better to let a player go a year or two early than a year or two late.”
While We’re Here — Preseason Game 1 vs. Jets
There was not much to love (pun intended) about the game. It is tough to judge a team based on preseason as other than the players and coaches, no one knows what the responsibilities are for each player on each play – they may have been working on certain techniques that typically wouldn’t be called in those game situations. Then again, they got absolutely dismantled in almost all phases of the game. The Quarterbacks all looked “good,” the issue being the drops. They plagued and ultimately sealed Green Bay’s fate in the 2024 season, and they seemed to have picked up (or lack thereof) where they left off last year. Regardless of how the offensive line plays (which they looked OK for the most part) or how accurate the QB is, if you can’t catch the ball…
The good news is the rookies looked fairly good…mainly 1st round pick, Matthew Golden, shined by snagging a slant route from Jordan Love and looked like a 5-year veteran in the process. Other than that, rookie offensive tackle, Anthony Belton, was mauling guys in the run game – a sight for sore eyes. The Packers definitely have a guy with some attitude that, if he turns it on, could be here for the long haul.
With all this, it’ll be interesting to see how these next 2 preseason games transpire and if they can gel to prepare for arguably the game of the year on September 7th vs. the Detroit Lions. We’ll cover this in the next entry, but with the quick BYE week (Week 5), the Packers have 2 tough opponents (Detroit and Washington, both teams that played one another in the NFC title game a season ago)…should Green Bay beat both and find a way to 4-0 heading into the BYE, that could really set the tone for the season. If they’re 2-2, or 1-3…they’ll be playing catch up the entire season and likely be on the road for the entire playoffs…assuming they make it.
It bears reminding everyone that Drafting For Need results in being able to fill needs with the draft, because you’ll have so many of them after a couple of drafts.
Where Do the Packers Stand?
Green Bay finished with the 7th seed in the 2024 NFC Playoffs, the 5th-best record in the conference, and tied for the 8th-best record in the entire NFL. Their Achilles Heel was losing all 6 games to oppoenents with better records than them last season (0-2 v Philadelphia, 0-2 v Detroit, and 0-2 v Minnesota). What’s troublesome is the Packers finished 1-5 in the division a season ago. Yes, while they had a bonehead play to lose to Chicago in the meaningless regular season finale, it still counts and the play did happen. Also, for the first time in many seasons, Chicago is actually building the proper way in the off season (offensive and defensive line). I still believe Caleb Williams isn’t nearly as good as advertised, but they’re going to be formidable in 2025.
What Picks Does Green Bay Possess?
The Packers have 8 total picks: 23rd (Round 1); 54th (2); 87th (3); 124th (4); 159th (5); 198th (6); 237th (7); 250th (7). It has been some time since the Packers didn’t have at least 11 selections (in 2021 Green Bay selected 9 players), so look for GM Brian Gutekunst to make a trade or two to move back and acquire more “swings at the plate,” which would rile up Packer Nation, especially if he trades out of the 1st round, while the draft is being held AT LAMBEAU FIELD!
What Areas/Positions May Green Bay Target?
The major question entering the 2025 NFL Draft is Jaire Alexander’s situation. While almost every article and X.com post written about him is that he won’t be on the 2025 roster, the way I see things is Green Bay is in need of cornerback, they have the best cornerback in the league on the roster, (now) on a favorable contract (relative to deals that have been given out to cornerbacks this offseason). While availability is the best skillset, corner is such a difficult position to find, keeping him seems to make sense.
With that it still would make a ton of sense for the Packers to use one of their first 3 draft picks on a CB. Other areas of “need” are Defensive Line (DL) and Wide Receiver (WR). If you’ve been following along, drafting WR in the 1st round is a wasted pick as there are so many WRs in every draft that the 1st-round value is weighted heavier on other positions where there aren’t as many from which to select. I see defensive line or cornerback as the likely first pick out of Green Bay this year, barring a stud falling to them at 23.
Who, Specifically, Could Green Bay Target?
Cornerbacks (CBs)—
Will Johnson – Michigan (17 overall rank per cbssports.com)
While 99% of fans want the flashy/shiny object. Winners are built in the trenches (assuming you have a stud QB that doesn’t choke). Don’t be shocked if Green Bay pulls the trigger on another OL or Edge Rusher. Fans would go bezerk, but you can never have enough offensive linemen or pass rushers, never.
There are two pass rushers that, theoretically could be available for Green Bay at pick 23: Mykel Williams – Georgia; Shemar Stewart – Texas A&M. Mykel Williams shined as an uber-athlete while at Georgia and was super productive during his time there. Stewart I’m not as familiar with however, he’s jumped up the draft boards since the end of the college season (always funny to me since no downs of football have been played since the National Title game). Both players seem to fit well in Hafley’s defense and I’d be pumped for either to join the team. Again, edge rusher is always a position where you can’t have too many good players.
Who Will Green Bay End up Selecting?
I’m torn, in multiple ways. I could easily see trading out of the 1st round (which wouldn’t be all that bad, because by all accounts, this draft is deepest in picks 20-50), acquiring another pick between that 30-50 could really boost this draft – and Gutey needs to hit a home run this draft.
Since it’s no fun to say “anything can happen” let’s guess…
Shemar Stewart of Texas A&M will be the Packers’ selection at 23 overall.
The season ended far sooner than many anticipated. Green Bay picked a poor time to play their worst game of the season – not that it is a choice. The Eagles ultimately proved to be the most complete team in the NFL with their dismantling of the 2-time defending NFL Champion Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX this past Sunday.
My Predictions for 2024 vs. What Happened
I predicted Green Bay to finish 12-5 (one off their actual record), earning the 2-seed. I did not see Detroit ‘nor Minnesota having as strong as regular seasons as they ended up having. Guessing correctly on 4 NFC playoff teams and 4 AFC playoff teams brining the correct guess total of 8 of 14 (57%) which isn’t bad. The prediction of the Buffalo Bills winning their first Super Bowl over the Green Bay Packers wasn’t terribly far off, but off nonetheless. Picking Philadelphia to finish as the 7-seed losing to the 2nd-seeded Packers in the Wild Card was just a reverse of what happened. All in all, fairly happy with the predictions.
What Actually Happened…
Eagles 22, Packers 10
This game was a microcosm of the entire Packers’ season. Inconsistency on offense, poor special teams, and a defense that kept them in it until the damn burst. The one bright spot, also consistent all season, is this team never gave up. They fought for all 60 minutes. Not every team does this, and there is no guarantee Green Bay will do it next year, but it’s likely they will. The main difference – if you boil it down to one item – Philadelphia was far tougher, physically. They punched Green Bay in the mouth (literally) on the opening kick off which set the tone for the entire game. Should it have been a penalty? Yes. Did Nixon recover? Yes. Would that have changed the outcome of the game? Not likely. Even taking into account momentum (which is impossible to chart), the Eagles battered Green Bay in all 3 phases for 60 minutes and it showed. There were 2 Packers that strapped up the helmet and came to play: Josh Jacobs; Edgerrin Cooper. Other than those two, the teams were vastly different.
The good news? After seeing what Philadelphia did to Los Angeles, Washington, and ultimately Kansas City, the Packers are right there in terms of talent. The key is execution. Entering 2025 the “youngest team in the league” will no longer be an excuse as they’ve now had 2 full seasons with 3 playoff games worth of experience. This is GO time for the Green Bay Packers and anything short of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy should be deemed a failed season.
Just How Close Are the Packers?
As stated above, Green Bay is right in the mix with the top teams. Likely coming in that 2nd tier, just behind Philadelphia, Detroit, Kansas City, and Buffalo. They’re in the mix with Baltimore, Washington (although I believe they’re better than the “Commanders”), Houston, and Los Angeles (both Chargers and Rams).
The Packers were the epitome of their record is what you are. In terms of point differential (the best indicator of a team’s true strength), Green Bay ranked 5th in the NFL in that category. Their record against teams that ranked worse? 11-3. Their record against teams that ranked better? 0-4 (2 losses each against Detroit and Philadelphia). Should Green Bay improve, other than organically – which is very possible and by design – they will need to find a pass rush, add depth on the offensive line and defensive backfield. Whether that’s banking on Jaire Alexander being healthy for a full season (dangerous), or adding through free agency, the Packers are in a position to be a bit aggressive in the “going for it” department.
Myles Garrett – all world pass rusher of the Cleveland Browns publicly asked to be traded.
Should Green Bay target Myles Garrett, Maxx Crosby, or Micah Parsons? Without a doubt. Will they be able to give up enough to match other contenders in that race? Likely not, but there’s a chance. Parsons is the intriguing one as Dallas has an owner who is borderline delusional, then again so is the entire Cleveland franchise, so there’s hope. The good news is there’s a chance all 3 could realistically move on from their current employers, creating triple the opportunity to add a need. The question is what to give up?
What Other Needs?
Josh Jacobs made headlines, locally, with his comments during media week in New Orleans leading up the Super Bowl, stating something to the effect of “needing a true #1 wide receiver.” Current Packers wideout, Dontayvion Wicks took offense to that posting something on his social media. I, for one, don’t believe the Packers need a true #1 wideout, but rather having depth and having Love throw to the open guy is the best remedy for success. Health is a huge factor in that, as by the end of the Wild Card game at Lincoln Financial Field the Packers were without their top 3 wide receivers…that’s an issue for any team.
With rookie Cooper DeJean making one of the biggest impact plays of Super Bowl LIX (pick-6 to put Philadelphia up 17-0), many (me included) wanted to draft DeJean with the Packers’ first selection. However, not having DeJean wasn’t the reason Green Bay fell to the eventual Super Bowl champs. Offensive line depth came back to bite them in a huge way. With Elgton Jenkins getting knocked out of the game, then starting Center Josh Myers busting up his leg, the Packers’ OL quickly went downhill and made an already near impossible task of keeping Philly’s pass rush at bay that much harder. Rookie Jordan Morgan missed most of the season and wasn’t available for the postseason…having him could’ve changed the game, but we’ll never know. Just goes to show, even when you have a very good offensive line – which Green Bay typically does, and did this year – you can never have enough good o-linemen. Hell, drafting another OL in the 1st round in 2025 shouldn’t be met with scrutiny, even though it will.
The true need for this roster is depth. Sure, adding an All-Pro pass rusher like Garrett, Crosby, or Parsons would absolutely help, but in terms of true “need,” Green Bay just needs depth. As LaFleur said after the playoff exit, the defense played winning football, the offense and special teams did not. He is right. Nixon and Valentine played very well, well enough to win with an offense putting out a B- production. Should the Packers move on from Jaire Alexander, cornerback will be a definite priority, as well as adding offensive line, depending on whether they bring Josh Myers back…then again, with WR Christian Watson missing likely the entire next season, another WR wouldn’t hurt either.
Green Bay is in position to literally take the best player available in the draft at their spot and it’ll help them, possibly even immediately. It would be great to add a proven pass rusher and even another along the defensive line to help. Hell, even having Lukas Van Ness step up and produce to what he is capable of would be tremendous. However, we’re past the point of expecting him to be anything more than he is…
The #7 seed Packers (11-6) travel to Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA to take on the #2 seed Eagles (14-3) this Sunday, January 12 at 3:30pm CST.
Packers- Season Review
The 2024 Green Bay Packers, while frustrating, have vastly improved from last season. The Packers improved offensively in rushing, total yardage, and points – as well as improved on the defensive side of the ball in rushing, total yardage, scoring and taking the ball away. Most importantly (aside from wins/losses, of course) Green Bay improved in their scoring differential from 10th (+33) to 5th (+122), which is the best determinate of a team’s true strength. The biggest change was the rush defense and takeaway difference, that’s all due to newly hired Defensive Coordinator, Jeff Hafley.
As alluded to above, the Packers are trending in the right direction. When a team rebuilds (new Head Coach and/or QB) it typically takes 4 years to compete for/win a Super Bowl.
1st Year – get experience and rebuild the roster identity
2nd Year – contend for/possibly make the postseason
3rd Year – make the playoffs/win a playoff game
4th Year – become one of the strongest teams in the NFL and compete for a Super Bowl
The Packers accomplished the 2nd/3rd-year objective in Year 1. They’re almost 2 years ahead of schedule. That much be kept in mind should Green Bay fall short of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season.
The question now becomes, can Green Bay beat a “good” team? It’s a valid question as their best wins are against The LA Rams (when they were missing both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua), the Houston Texans (they haven’t looked nearly as good this year vs. last season), and the Seattle Seahawks (while going 10-7, missed the playoffs). Green Bay is a better team than last year, but the top tier teams in the NFC are better than the top tier teams in last year’s NFC. It comes down to turnovers and slow starts. Should Green Bay be able to score at least field goals on their first 2 drives instead of settling for punts or putting the ball on the ground, that would go a long way into setting them selves up to beat a “good” team.
Who Are the Philadelphia Eagles?
The 2024 Philadelphia Eagles have been the 2nd best team in the NFC the entire regular season. After beating Green Bay in the season opener in Bazil, the Eagles inexplicably dropped a home game to Atlanta, then two weeks later dropped a game to Tampa Bay (who knocked them out of the playoff a season ago). From there, they went on a 10-game winning streak until Jalen Hurts was knocked out of their Dec. 22nd matchup vs. Washington and they lost that game late. The Eagles’ defense has been superb under Vic Fangio, ranking in the top 10 in all categories (rushing, passing, total yards, and scoring) along with having 26 takeaways (6th). However, the Packers did hang 29 points on them in that Week 1 matchup, but most of that came after the 1st quarter after Love and LaFleur settled in. Green Bay would likely need to come out aggressive – while still focusing on the rush game – to open up that Philly D.
Matchup
The Eagles did draft Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean to severely help their secondary from last season. DeJean is beginning to play quite a bit more now, but Mitchell has been a stud all year for Philly. As you can see, they’re 1st against the pass in the entire league, and they’re 1st in the NFL in yards given up by a whopping 32.8 yards/game. That’s incredible, considering the rest of the league is then separated by 1-2 yards/game per ranking. The method to combat this is to find explosive plays – which is going to be tough because the Eagles don’t allow those – and getting takeaways. Giving Jordan Love a short field to with which to work, will vastly increase the Packers’ chances of putting up points.
As I’ve stated before and will die on this hill, there’s almost no reason to “go for it” on 4th down in the 1st half instead of kicking a field goal, unless you’re in a weird area of the field (say the opposing 40 to 45 yard line), just take the points. Especially in the red zone. While scoring touchdowns in the red zone is one of the biggest determining factors in the outcome of a game, not taking those 3 points almost always comes back to bite later in the game and changes the decision-making, putting your offense in an unnecessary hole.
How Does Green Bay Win?
As always, show me the QB that played better, and I’ll show you the team that won. This always doesn’t come down to pure statistics, but managing the game outcome to a win. There will be 3-4 huge plays in this game and the QB that comes up with those will win. The only negating factor to that are turnovers. They’re such a momentum changer and overall equalizer, that’s always the focus for every team every game.
In order for Green Bay to come out victorious they’ll need to play at least an A- game. Getting 2+ turnovers while not committing any themselves, getting sustained drives and converting 3rd downs will be the key. Keep your defense off the field and wear down theirs. Philadelphia has the overall best defense in the NFL and keeping them on the field getting gassed is the best way to break them.
Should Green Bay continue their run-heavy focus, especially in the 1st quarter, that should go a long way to wearing down the defense in the later parts of the game. We’ve seen this in the recent games vs. Detroit and Minnesota. “Slow starts” however keeping with the ground game eventually opens up the run and pass lanes later in the game with lesser pass rush. That said, taking a few shots early and being aggressive is always welcome, especially in a win-or-go-home game. Packers being ahead of schedule are essentially playing with house money and hopefully will play loose.
Prediction Time
Let’s see how rusty Jalen Hurts is after not playing since December 22nd, and only playing 12 snaps at that. If Green Bay can take advantage and get a jump on them early, say jumping out to a 14-0 or 14-3 lead, the fans may turn on their Eagles and it could get ugly.
I see this being a close game, regardless of the outcome. GO PACK GO!
sportsjudgejury 