The Packers did what they were supposed to do and took are of business in their cleanest game of the season. The Saints came in, already a bad football team, with a slew of injuries to their top players. Essentially, Green Bay was facing a bad team’s backups, and it showed.

While New Orleans had a ton of injuries the Packers weren’t immune to missing some of their top players as well. For the billionth time in his career, Jaire Alexander wasn’t able to go (and likely won’t against Minnesota despite having been a full participant in practice for the last few weeks) and neither were Quay Walker, Evan Williams, and Javon Bullard. All of these players will be necessary to have on the field should Green Bay have hopes of fulfilling their goal of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

New (Inevitable) Star is Rising

You never want injuries, however there are instances where they can help a team in the grand scheme of things. For instance, Quay Walker not being available forced Hafley’s and LaFleur’s hand in playing their standout rookie, Edgerrin Cooper. For consecutive weeks now, Cooper has transformed the defense and brought an instinct and speed to a position that many felt was lacking. I believe getting Quay AND Cooper on the field at the same time would enable them to do many things to disrupt offenses, if used properly.

The main concern coming from the Saints game was there were a few instances of wide-open targets that their backup QB just flat out missed. Some of those came on crucial 3^rd downs which playoff QBs will hit. Moving forward, you’d have to assume Jaire Alexander won’t be out there and the secondary is what it is, very opportunistic, but susceptible at times against good teams. Green Bay, ‘nor any defense, will shut down every play for an entire game, but there are always things to work on and improve – the Packers have accomplished this with their pass rush (which in turn aids the secondary) and now need to focus on better, more consistent, coverage when the pass rush doesn’t get home.

Great Balance

Looking at the rankings entering Saturday, December 28, 2024, Green Bay runs the ball 3^rd most in the NFL, in terms of ratio. The Packers are running on 51.6% of their plays, which is awesome. Anything > a 50% ratio means you’re committed to the ground game and likely will wear down defenses, even if you’re not having much run success in the early goings of a game. Once a defense wears down, you can essentially dictate what you do in the 4^th quarter. However, if you are able to run the ball early you’re able to do anything. Pass, run, play action, trick plays, etc., they’re all available if you’re able to run the ball effectively. This sets up LaFleur’s offense beautifully and is how you win playoff games.

Another trend from this chart you may notice is all of these teams are either playoff teams, or in the hunt of the playoff chase (Indianapolis). This isn’t a fluke…also, the biggest change of these teams is Washington, having passed the ball on 66.13% of their plays last season, then hired Dan Quinn, drafted Jayden Daniels (always was the clear better option than Caleb Williams), and committed to the run, a change of almost 15%. They were bad last year, now they’re 10-5. Not a coincidence.

Can Green Bay Beat a Good Team?

While this game isn’t meaningless for Green Bay, it means a helluva lot more to Minnesota. The Vikings have control of their destiny to obtain the highly-coveted 1-seed (should they win v. Green Bay then next week v. Detroit). The Packers are locked into either the 5, 6, or 7-seed, but if they win 1 of their remaining two games, would guarantee either the 5^th or 6^th seed. Where this game is important for Green Bay is to see if they can log their “best win of the season.”

It’s been well-talked about, that Green Bay’s only losses have come to the teams ahead of them in the NFC. While that means they don’t have a “bad loss,” it does say that they’re not able to beat any of the teams necessary to advance in the playoffs. The Packers wins have come against teams with a combined record of 69-99 (.411), and their four losses against teams with a combined record of 51-9 (.850). If you break it down, the Packers have a record of 3-4 against teams with a winning record. Not bad, however the only teams they’ll likely see in the playoffs that they’ve beaten is the LA Rams…and Green Bay caught them without their top 2 pass catchers and a couple of key defenders. Since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have returned to the lineup, LA has been 7-2 with convincing wins vs. both Minnesota and Buffalo. They could be a force to be reckoned with, and their 9-6 record is misleading, considering they “lost” to Chicago and Arizona in the early part of the season.

How Good is Minnesota?

Considering the Vikings are tied for the 2^nd-best record in the NFL, it’s safe to say they’re pretty damn good. However, just how good are they? Minnesota has won 8 straight, but struggled in their last game @ Seattle, winning 27-24 after trailing much of the game. Green Bay handled Seattle for the entirety of their matchup…while I don’t like playing the “same opponent in recent weeks” game, it’s all we really have to go on aside from the total season stats. If you’ve been following along for the past few years, you know I weight point differential heavily on “true strength” of a team. It typically goes hand-in-hand with the overall W/L record, but not always. However, if you’re 13-2, your point differential will be high unless you’ve won all close games and were blown out in those losses. Minnesota’s 2 losses came in back-to-back weeks, narrowly losing to Detroit and dropping a game to the Rams by 10.

The Vikings rank 5^th in point differential and have the 2^nd best defense against the run. They have given up the 3^rd most yards through the air (ranking 30^th in the league in pass yards given up per game), but still have a top 3 scoring defense. They’re one of the more well-balanced teams in the league, but not as balanced as Green Bay, across both sides of the ball in each phase. On paper, this is about an even a matchup as there is in the NFL. It’s strength vs. strength in almost every category, but the Packers have been rolling on offense as of late, scoring 30+ points in 5 straight games and holding their opponent to less than 20 points in five of their last 6 matchups.

It’s difficult to say where either team has an advantage, but it goes without saying that Minnesota’s stud WR corps of Justin Jefferson (#18) and Jordan Addison (#3) have combined for 148 receptions for 2,193 yards and 18 touchdowns. Jefferson has torn up the Packers when Jaire Alexander hasn’t been on the field…and newsflash, he likely won’t be again. As stated above, it’ll be on the Packers’ pass rush to get after Darnold quickly to not allow him to get into a rhythm and get the ball to his playmakers. If they do, Aaron Jones still is a weapon out of the backfield in the pass game (totaling 42 catches for 348 yards and 2 TDs). Edgerrin Cooper likely has his hands full balancing pass rush, run gap assignments and covering #33 out of the backfield.

Many say it’ll be a shootout, but I see it a bit differently, as each of these defenses are really good and late in the season, defenses usually have the advantage over good offenses. Jordan Love needs to turn up his production and hit some big plays to open up the Vikings’ D and make life a bit easier. Getting up 2+ scores will be paramount as Minnesota can sling it and score quickly, especially in the dome.

Prediction Time…

This has all the makings of a tight game, with Minnesota having far more to play for than Green Bay. Will the Packers be able to match the Vikings’ urgency?

Season: 13-2
Overall: 105-68

First things first, let’s review the Packers excellent win in Nashville this past Sunday. Malik Willis executed to near perfection, again. He threw for 202 yards completing 13 of his 19 pass attempts (68.4%) and a TD to Emmanual Wilson. Willis also added 73 yards on the ground on just 6 attempts, along with a TD on the game’s first drive. The ole saying goes Just try to win half of your games with your backup. That would keep the team afloat until the starter returns. If Willis plays this Sunday and Green Bay loses, he’d still have accomplished his job by winning 2 of 3.

Much of the reason the Packers were able to win both of Willis’ starts is due to the defense. These last two weeks, the Packers have surrendered 12 points/game. That’s more than enough to get the job done, even with a backup quarterback. In those 2 games, the Packers’ defense has forced 6 turnovers, 7 punts, and 2 turnovers on downs out of 21 total drives. Meaning the Packers are allowing opponents to score on only 28.6% of their drives. They’re only scoring touchdowns on 14.3% (3 TDs) of those drives. While that’s a little nerdy, another way to look at it would be Points per Drive. Green Bay, the last 2 weeks, have yielded 1.1 points/drive, while scoring 2.3 points/drive. Ideally, as an offense, you want that number closer to 3 (ala a Field Goal every drive) as that’d put you close to 30-36 points per game, a healthy number.

Speaking of the defense, the pass rush came alive, as we expected them to facing Will Levis. Levis is mobile-enough, but not in the same class as Jalen Hurts or Anthony Richardson. The Packers pressured Levis almost all game and sacked him 8 times for a total loss of 56 yards. Don’t expect 8 sacks again, as it hasn’t happened for 20 years, but 3-4 sacks a game is a good target to hit, and essentially eliminates an entire drive of a game (acts as a turnover if you will).

Issues?

There are 2 things that stood out to me…first is penalties. The Packers committed 10 penalties for 75 yards. That’s far too many. The Titans only had 2 penalties, albeit crucial on the missed Field Goal attempt by Narveson, resulting in the Wilson touchdown. Left Tackle, Rasheed Walker, keeps finding himself in the doghouse for committing these and killing drives. This must be cleaned up, especially against better quality opponents.

The other issue I noticed after re-watching the Titans game was play action. Tennessee was able to gain significant yardage in the pass game off play action. It seemed the Packers played zone for much of the game, forcing Levis to beat them with accuracy, which he obviously wasn’t able to do. However, versus better quarterbacks, this is what killed the Packers under ex-Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry. The premise is that receivers will be covered quicker in zone and then uncover to wide open spaces, but the idea is the pass rush will get home and either sack the QB or force bad throws by the time the targets uncover. I’d expect a mix of zone and man coverage against Minnesota with Darnold playing well so far and having one of, if not the, top receivers in the NFL – Justin Jefferson – at his disposal.

Welcome a Familiar Face

The Vikings may be the surprise of the NFL, starting the season 3-0, two of those wins coming against quality opponents: San Francisco; Houston. Minnesota had traded up in last year’s draft to select J.J. McCarthy (QB – Michigan) after moving on from Kirk Cousins. McCarthy ended up inuring his knee this preseason and turned to Sam Darnold, a former 1^st round pick for the Jets…Darnold finally finds himself in a good setup and is flourishing. The theme for the 2024 NFL season has been Coaching is Paramount. From talented Bryce Young being benched in Carolina, to Caleb Williams in Chicago, Justin Fields in Pittsburgh, hell even Malik Willis in Green Bay – production seems to come from good coaching in good situations.

While Sam Darnold (53/78, 657 yards, 8 TD, 2 INT, 117.3 RAT) is the surprise of the league – although this might’ve always been the best spot for his career to take him…dome, good offensive-minded coach, talent surrounding him, etc. – all eyes will be on former fan-favorite Aaron Jones’ return to 1265 Lombardi Ave. Aaron Jones is still a good human, and he’s leaning into the Vikings fans SKOL chant, just as he did with the Lambeau Leap – he’s a good person and great teammate. However, as soon as the ball is kicked, he’s the enemy, hopefully Packer nation doesn’t forget that…even with his heartfelt message to Packer fans this week

Aside from Jones, who’s averaging 18 touches and 108 yards per game this season, the other threat is obviously wide receiver Justin Jefferson (5 touches, 87 yards, and 1 TD per game so far). I’m not sure if there’s a way to take both guys away from the game, but shadowing Edgerrin Cooper on Jones (all he’s done is flashed and produced in his limited snaps), as he’s a freak athlete for an Inside Linebacker, and mirroring Jaire Alexander on Justin Jefferson, is likely Green Bay’s best shot. Keep in mind, in Week 17 of the 2022 season, Jaire absolutley shut down Jefferson. Jefferson’s stats from that game were 1 catch on 5 targets for 15 yards. I believe Jaire wasn’t even covering Jefferson on the one catch. Alexander screwed him up for the remainder of the season. To quote Wayne Larrivee, “Jefferson missed the flight back to Minnesota after the game because he was locked in prison.”

The Packers’ pass rush also has another opportunity to generate pressure on Sam Darnold. Their offensive line is susceptible to a pass rush. The Vikings have been able to survive it for the first 3 weeks of the season, and Darnold won’t hold onto the ball nearly as long as Will Levis did last week, but pressuring the QB is always a great thing as it’ll generate timing issues and potentially turnover-worthy plays. Zach Kruse on X, had a solid post showing the Vikings’ weaknesses. Should Green Bay be able to get a combination of 6 (sacks + turnovers), and with Jordan Love playing (hopefully), that may be enough to win the game for the Green & Gold. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams played, Love had made epic strides in his game and completely dismantled Brian Flores’ defense, which has shut down the 49ers and Texans these past two week, both very good offenses.

Matchup

The key matchup will be the Vikings’ 2nd ranked rush defense vs. the Packers top-rated rush offense. If Jordan Love ends up playing, the Packers likely won’t be running nearly as much, having run 90 of their 126 offensive snaps the last 2 weeks (71.4%), but setting the tone early by running is never a bad thing. I believe an ideal ratio would be 60:40 pass-to-run, with Love at QB. With passing more, that likely means more offensive snaps, if Green Bay can run 70 snaps this game that would put the rush attemps around 25-30, which would be ideal.

Prediction

Season: 2-1
Overall: 94-67