Tag: houston-texans

Mining for the Gold Zone

Posted on by nzurich9

Review: Packers 20; Bears 19

First tings first, Green Bay came out with the win. The Box Score shows that Chicago played the better game, however the difference is Green Bay scored 3 touchdowns to Chicago’s two. Scoring touchdowns, and limiting touchdowns, are paramount in football. Aside from that, Chicago won in total yards, turnovers, and time of possession.  

The biggest takeaways from the game, Quay Walker needs to stop thinking and just play. There were countless snaps where he was either out of position or just didn’t attack. Especially on one of the 4th down conversions by Chicago where he had QB Caleb Williams dead-to-rights and just played “spy” allowing Caleb to convert the 4th down to a check down. That could’ve swung the complete momentum of the game and led to a comfortable win instead of what transpired.

Good Sign—the Packers cleaned up the penalties by only committing 3, and one of those wasn’t a penalty (15-yard personal foul, late hit) on Xavier McKinney. That kept Green Bay ahead of the sticks (or on schedule in terms of down and distance), and makes it easier to keep drives alive on offense as well as helps the defense get off the field.

Jordan Love finally looked 100% healthy, and it showed in terms of production against Chicago. Aside from the overthrow to Kraft that led to the interception, Love was on especially in clutch situations…he finished the game: 13/17; 261 yards; 1 TD; 1 INT; 113.0 Rating. He’s getting set to pop the top and hit stride as he did in the 2nd half of last season.

LB Brenton Cox (#57) sacks Bears’ QB Caleb Williams. (photo credit: Evan Siegel; packers.com)

To put a bow on it, with the trade of Preston Smith to Pittsburgh, the unproven guys were going to get additional reps and Brenton Cox, Jr. decided to make an immediate impact. Cox, a very athletic linebacker from the University of Florida, had a sack and an additional tackle for loss (TFL) against the Bears and that aggression helps the defense cause negative plays and turnovers.

Preview: (5-5) San Francisco 49ers @ (7-3) Green Bay Packers

Current Standings—Green Bay sits as the 6th seed in the NFC playoff picture while San Francisco is currently on the outside looking in as the 10th seed. The 49ers are 2 games behind the last seeded Washington Commanders and desperately need this win to keep them alive for postseason play. Keeping the 9ers out of the playoffs would be a huge advantage for Green Bay’s path to the Super Bowl – not only due to getting the monkey off their back, but San Fran is uber talented and experienced as they’ve been the class of the NFC for the past 5+ seasons.

Matchup Preview

On paper these teams are about as evenly matched as can be. The 9ers have found ways to lose close games while Green Bay has done quite well in that department. While scoring points and keeping point off the board from your opponents is king, San Fran is top-10 in each yardage category on both sides of the ball. That generally displays a team’s true production…however, the ability to score and win tight games shows the ability to come through in clutch situations, as Green Bay has done on far more occasions.

The red zone efficiency (TDs scored divided by the number of red zone trips) for each of these teams leaves quite a bit to be desired. San Francisco ranks 26th with a 48.78% red zone efficiency while Green Bay is a spot behind them at 27th (48.72%). Green Bay can improve this department is:

  1. Jordan Love’s health (which seems to be 100%)
  2. Keep feeding Josh Jacobs the ball

Ryan Wood, of jsonline.com, wrote a good article elaborating on this and why it’ll help the Packers convert more of their red zone trips into touchdowns vs. field goals. This past week at Soldier Field the Packers converted 3 of their 5 red zone trips into touchdowns. That easily could’ve been 4-of-5 had they kept handing the ball off to Jacobs. Instead, they stalled out and ended up going for it on a 4th & Goal from the 6 in the 4th quarter resulting in Love being denied at the goal line. The other failure was on Love’s overthrow to Kraft ending in his 11th interception of the season. Even settling for field goals (adding 6 points to the scoreboard) would’ve changed the dynamic of this game. Hell, had one of those drives resulted in a TD and the other a FG, that’s an additional 10 points and likely gets towards the “comfortable win” category for this game.

Stepping Up?

Rashan Gary (#52) sacks Caleb Williams late in the 4th quarter. (photo credit: Evan Siegel; packers.com)

It’s been covered and talked at nauseum about the lack of pressure and pass rush from the Packers this season. Without those takeaways, it almost reared its ugly head last week. However, Green Bay got 3 sacks against Chicago and 2 were on consecutive plays with almost a 3rd that would’ve ended the game without the field goal block. Green Bay will need this type of constant pass rush if they want to succeed in the playoffs against solid offensive lines. Rashan Gary is the focal point, and should be since he’s the high-profile (and highly paid) pass rusher on this team. We need Gary to produce like he did in that 2021 Divisional Round playoff game vs. San Francisco for the remainder of the season, as well as sophomore Lukas Van Ness to begin making plays and getting a constant push considering Kenny Clark is getting all the attention on the interior of the lines he sees.

Banged Up?

Both of these squads come into this Week 12 match up pretty banged up. However, San Francisco is at risk for missing far more quality starters than Green Bay. Superstar pass rusher, Nick Bosa, might miss this game (or won’t be close to 100% should he play) along with all-world LT Trent Williams. Brock Purdy is making headlines by shutting down practice on Thursday with right (throwing) shoulder soreness, which could put them in a precarious situation.

Green Bay will be without standout corner Jaire Alexander for the foreseeable future with a torn PCL, sustained against Jacksonville that kept him out of the Detroit game and only played 10 snaps in Chicago 2 weeks later. Again, the Packers’ pass rush must step up to help the below-average cover corners we now have.

What to Watch For?

San Francisco is missing, quite possibly, their 2 most important players: QB Brock Purdy; DE Nick Bosa. Purdy is about as safe and efficient a QB as there is in this league, and Bosa generates a pass rush as consistently as any pass rusher. By not having either of those guys, the Packers should be able to focus their attention on Christian McCaffrey and the short-passing game. Green Bay will be without their two best defenders, Jaire Alexander and Edgerrin Coopers. Look for LB Eric Wilson to make an impact, but guarding TE George Kittle (which is always a tough task) will be paramount along with winning the line of scrimmage.

Prediction Time

Should Purdy play as well as Nick Bosa, this is a desperate/hungry 9ers team that is almost in a must-win scenario coupled with a very clever Head Coach…it may be tight. Then again, Jordan Love may put one together and boat race these guys. Either way, I don’t see a scenario where Green Bay has a complete stinker of a game and gets handled.

Should Green Bay win the turnover battle and time of possession, there’s a chance this game could get out of hand for San Fran, which would be much-needed for Green Bay to have a “comfortable victory.” Look for Jordan Love to get into a rhythm early and often to hopefully free up some passing lanes which would allow for the run game to carry them through. The X-factor is always MLB Fred Warner, who many believe is the best Middle Linebacker in football. He could change a game, but if he has to guard against an effective pass AND run game, he’ll be nullified and Green Bay should be able to dictate what they do with the ball. Remember, converting Red Zone trips to touchdowns instead of Field Goals and turnovers is what separates the Very Good teams from the Great Teams.

Season: 8-2
Overall: 100-68

Hunting Season

Posted on by nzurich9

In the latest installment of the oldest rivalry in the NFL, Green Bay travels to Soldier Field in search of their first divisional win of the season. The Packers lead the all-time series between these two rivals, 107-95-6, winning the last 10 matchups. The Bears have lost three straight games since starting the season 4-2 while Green Bay is coming off their bye week having dropped a sloppily-played game to Detroit in Week 9. Should Green Bay want to contend for the division title and perhaps an outside shot at the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs, they’ll likely have to win the rest of their remaining games assuming Detroit will drop another two games outside of their next matchup in Week 14 on Thursday Night Football. This begins the long stretch towards The Tournament to contend for the Lombardi Trophy, and hopefully the Packers will emulate their strong 2nd half of the season from a year ago and start strong coming off the bye.

Matchup

Based on the rankings above, it’s apparent where Green Bay has the advantage…the run game. Chicago is 24th in the NFL in rush offense, as well as 24th in the league in rush defense. Those are some of Green Bay’s strong suits. The Packers are 3rd in rush offense in the NFL and 10th in defending the run, and have improved over the last few weeks in that department. Where Green Bay has struggled, as I wrote last week, is in securing the football and taking it away. The Packers need to get back to their way of taking the ball away and converting those to touchdowns. They do that, and they’re back to one of, if not the, strongest teams in the NFL. Chicago has done a solid job in each of those categories ranking T-7th in takeaways and 6th in giving it away. Should Chicago want to get back on track and upset Green Bay, they’ll likely have to lead the turnover department, as well as time of possession and penalties (and yardage) assessed. The gameplan seems obvious for the Packers – run the ball, early and often!

Bye Did Some Good?

The Packers got very healthy while off on their bye week, essentially getting everyone back other than TE Luke Musgrave. They did however, see a setback in rookie running back Marshawn Lloyd, who was cleared to practice and anticipated to play before suffering appendicitis on Friday at practice (a non-football injury).  The other notables returning to the field were stud corner Jaire Alexander, rookie sensation Evan Williams, and reliable snapper at center, Josh Myers. These additions alone may have been the difference in losing to Detroit 2 weeks ago, so to get them back is a huge step in the right direction for this team. Availability is the most important talent and can’t be understated it’s importance in December and January.

WR #13 Dontayvion Wicks drops a pass vs. Detroit at Lambeau Field on Nov. 3, 2024. (photo credit: Acme Packing Company).

Getting Dontayvion Wicks rolling again is essential for the Packers, and this week vs. a solid Chicago pass defense is as good a time as any. Wicks has shown to be one of the best receivers in the NFL in route-running by being able to get open as much as any player along with creating the greatest separation from his cover guy throughout the entire NFL. Getting him back in rhythm with Jordan Love will help each guy, not only their stats, but with putting games out of reach as they were able to do so in a few games late in the season in 2023. Tom Silverstein of jsonline.com had a solid article talking about the relationship between Love and Wicks and how they can regain their connection from 2023.

Who Are the Bears?

They’re still a poorly run organization, from the top down. It was clear from the onset of this offseason, at least to me, that this team didn’t really improve from last season. The defense essentially was kept the same, and while it’s “good” there are still some holes and the offense… As for the offense, the fan base (as always) talks as if they’re the Patriots with prime Tom Brady at the helm, still has glaring issues. Mainly the offensive line, which is still one of the worst in the NFL and it’s rearing its ugly head these last few weeks. During their 3-game losing streak, Chicago has given up 18 sacks (6/game) for 122 yards, has run 189 plays for only 690 yards (230 yards/game) and scored a combined 27 points (9 points/game). That’s abysmal, even for a “bad offense.”

While many say “Chicago is ruining Caleb Williams,” is there a chance he’s just not that good? Sure he won a Heisman Trophy and put up big numbers in college, but this is the NFL and collegiate production doesn’t necessarily translate to the man’s league. There are 3 quarterbacks I’d like to throw in the mix, with one of them being Caleb and let’s see if you can find the difference between them….

  • QB 1: 64%; 212.2 yards; 1.28TD; 0.74INT; 87.2RAT
  • QB 2: 60.3%; 175.6 yards; 1.05TD; 0.79INT; 82.8RAT
  • QB 3: 60.5%; 198.3 yards; 1.00TD; 0.56INT; 81.0RAT

Que The Office meme picture of Pam saying “They’re the same picture.” In order, these quarterbacks are Mitch Trubisky, Justin Fields, and Caleb Williams. Now before you say, “Yes, but once Mitch and Fields left, they improved!” Not really, since leaving here are the stats of each QB:

  • Mitch: 64.4%; 241.5 yards; 1.0TD; 1.25INT; 77.8RAT – avg. over 8 starts
  • Fields: 66.3%; 184.3 yards; 0.83TD; 0.17INT; 93.9RAT – avg. over 6 starts

While Fields has improved his numbers, those games were managed in a method of backup QB play, much like the Packers with Malik Willis. Ball control and stifling defense, for Pittsburgh. That’s essentially what these QBs are and seem to be. Caleb may improve (very likely given he’s a rookie with “generational talent), but there were a few people that thought he’s already at his ceiling…

Chicago has fired their Offensive Coordinator, Shane Waldron, after the latest atrocity Chicago refuses to fix the actual problem and slaps a Band-Aid on the open wound that requires major surgery…this could give the Bears a short-term boost, and put them in a spot that may give some false hope. While I could go down the path of Chicago beating Green Bay this week and winning a couple of more games for the remainder of the season is a GOOD thing for the Packers, I won’t as Chicago is likely to screw up the next 2-3 years anyway.

Prediction

Season: 7-2
Overall: 99-68

That’s About Right

Posted on by nzurich9
Romeo Doubs dives into the end zone. (photo credit: Evan Sigle; packers.com).

The Packers won in every aspect of the game, as they should’ve. Even at that, Green Bay didn’t play all that well, but limited mistakes which paved the way to a 21-point victory. Aside from sloppy footwork on a few throws, Jordan Love played safe, smart football. That translated to 22/32, 258 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT (WR slipped on perfect throw), 119.5 rating.

The best part that likely went unnoticed was Green Bay ran the ball 38 times (54.3%) for 179 yards (4.7 yards/rush). That’s a perfect ratio for success. Not only was it a balanced attack, the carries were split in a balance as well. Josh Jacobs had 18 carries for 62 yards, with Emanuel Wilson getting 7 for 54 yards. This commitment to the run game is the path to postseason success. Yes, you need production with it, however running the ball throughout the game wears the defense down which should turn shorter gains into bigger ones later in the game. It also opens the pass game up a bit along with play action making the offense as dynamic as possible. The time of possession comes with this too as the Packers possessed the ball for 36:35, bringing the Packers up to 6th in the NFL in time of possession averaging 31:55 per game. This helps the defense too…

Speaking of the defense, while we didn’t register a sack, they kept contain on Kyler Murray and pressured him enough to force poor throws. They did generate 3 turnovers on fumbles and again, only scoring 3 points off those turnovers. Green Bay missed a field goal, made a field goal, and ended the game, respectively, off each turnover. The Packers allowed 303 total yards on 10 Arizona drives, which is very solid against the now 15th-ranked offense. Kenny Clark still gets a play-wrecking push when not double-teamed and Rashan Gary was getting a considerable push on the edge throughout the game, while still not registering much in the QB pressure area. Green Bay will need to begin getting sacks when facing less mobile QBs, but as long as they can make the QB uncomfortable, that’s the primary goal as it leads to incompletions and interceptions.

Big Matchup

There are quite a few matchups in the NFL this week that will garner quite a bit of attention, with Houston visiting Lambeau Field as one of them. The Texans are 5-1, with their sole loss coming at the hands of the Vikings, while Green Bay has improved over the last couple of weeks and beginning to hit their stride.

The Texans present a major challenge on defense considering they have one of the brightest young QBs the league has seen in some time – or at least one of the most productive rookie QBs we’ve seen. Much credit should go to Green Bay native, Bobby Slowik, who had a nice article in espn.com, yesterday.

Houston features one of the best young QBs in the game, C.J. Stroud. Stroud will be missing his top target in Nico Collins for at least 4 games after he injured his hamstring in the team’s Week 5 win vs. Buffalo. They do have a familiar face in Stefon Diggs who spent his first 5 seasons in Minnesota. The running back situation for Houston is a bit up in the air as their leading rusher (Joe Mixon) is Questionable for the game, and considering Green Bay has a solid rush defense, this puts a bit more pressure on Stroud and the Texans passing attack, and hopefully Green Bay is able to create a few turnovers again. Scoring off those turnovers is always paramount and it will likely be the difference-maker in the result of the game.

The Packers lead the NFL with 17 takeaways and a +9 turnover differential, where Houston is tied for 14th with 7 takeaways and is tied for 13th with a 0 turnover differential. Green Bay needs to keep the turnover differential in their favor, especially when facing good quality opponents.

Jordan Love and his WR corps are hitting stride at a good time considering the Packers are entering the toughest part of their schedule and are in danger of falling further behind Detroit and Minnesota, but still have 5 divisional games left on their schedule.

Season: 4-2
Overall: 96-68