It’s the good guys in all-white…the Winter Warning is upon us, again. Tonight is a matchup of playoff teams from a season ago. The Commanders were the surprise of the 2024 season much like the Packers of the 2023, except they won their Divisional Round matchup at the 1-seeded Lions while Green Bay fell to the eventual NFC champion 49ers.
Week 2 Matchup
The Commanders struggled early with the New York Giants. Washington was able to control the game, but New York was in it for much of the matchup. Their defense shut down the G-men, however, Russell Wilson was complicit. Both defenses put forth good showings, however Green Bay’s was far more impressive as it came against 2024’s #1 offense.
Yes, this is only 1 game’s worth of statistics, so the sample size is as small as it can be, but it’s important to show what’s been done. Washington was able to run the ball while Green Bay passed the first test without Kenny Clark. This will be another test and holding Washington’s offense will first come from stopping the run. If play action is there for the taking, 2nd year QB, Jayden Daniels, will have the weapon of his choosing – whether it’s passing to a wide open receiver or taking off and ripping off huge chunks of yardage with his legs. He’s as dangerous a runner at QB as Lamar Jackson, and he might be more accurate. Generating pressure, quick pressure that is, will be paramount, but keeping the rush lane integrity will be just as important. There likely will be less stunts (D linemen shifting across the line to free up other rushers to penetrate) and more pure bull and speed rushes from the outside. Ideally, if the middle can generate a rush while the edges keep contain, that’s where you can get Daniels off his game and you can stifle this Commanders offense.
The other item, we always talk about, are turnovers. Generating them and not giving the football away. This is a great matchup and I fully expect each of these teams to make the playoffs once again, likely each winning at least a game. Whichever QB plays better (again, almost as always) their team will win the game…that comes with taking care of the ball (no turnovers).
Malik Willis (#2) unleashes a pass in the Home-opener vs. Indianapolis. (photo credit: Evan Siegel, packers.com)
Huge credit to newcomer, Malik, Willis, for executing an absolutely brilliant gameplan by Matt LaFleur. When things are tough, simplicity is usually the best method. Reminding me of Bill Belichick’s approach, (paraphrasing) “We attack the other team’s weakness.” Regardless of what you do well, attacking the opponent’s weakness is almost always the best plan. The Colts had given up 213 yards rushing to the Houston Texans in Week 1, and the Packers doubled-down on that approach in Week 2. Green Bay amassed 261 yards rushing on 53 attempts (4.9 avg.), setting the tone quite early and wearing out that defensive front for the remainder of the game. This allowed the offensive line to give Willis a clean pocket on the rare times LaFleur called for a pass, easing the task for the newcomer to execute.
On the times Willis did drop back to pass, passing lanes were there and receivers were open. LaFleur didn’t ask too much of Willis, likely giving him directions to “look for your first 2 open reads, if nothing is there, tuck it and take off.” That was clear to the fan watching the game, and the right gameplan all along. Minimize mistakes/negative plays (turnovers, loss of yardage) and forcing the Colts to beat you instead of beating yourself. All of this is great in theory during the week in prepping for the Colts – none of it works without execution from the offensive line. The OL played absolutely great, aside from Josh Myers’ 2 illegal man downfield penalties wiping out a touchdown and huge gain. The Colts didn’t sack Willis at all and rarely pressured him on his 14+ drop backs.
Josh Jacobs (#8) got in rhythm early and often vs. the Colts. (photo credit: Evan Siegel, packers.com)
Josh Jacobs showed why he was brought in to Lambeau carrying the ball 32 times for 151 yards. It had been some time since a Packers running back was able to handle that type of load…and take over a game by wearing the other team out. He also created many yards of his own, making the OL appear even greater than they were. Jocobs often makes the first man miss, and if there is only 1 defender, that turns into chunk yards, quickly. Explosion runs (12+ yards) are far more demoralizing to a defense than explosion pass plays (20+ yards). as all 11 are involved and running after the ball carrier. This is a glimpse of what we want (need) in January when the weather turns and we need pure ball control.
Turnovers
While Jeff Hafley’s defense has given up plenty of yards, especially on the ground and late in games, his defense does generate turnovers. It’s what you do on offense with those turnovers that often dictates the outcomes of games. The Packers intercepted Anthony Richardson on their 2nd drive of the game, and drove all the way down to the 1 yard line where Jacobs fumbled it into the end zone. Had he held on to that ball, it’s 17-0 and this game is entirely different. Likely a blowout and while we’re excited about the outcome, we’d feel even more confident had the Packers won 23-6 or better! From the 3 takeaways, the Packers scored 0 points, often a recipe for disaster, however that should’ve been 10 points — the aforementioned Jacobs’ fumble, and the other was a missed Field Goal. The last turnover came on the last play of the game, but still huge which sealed the victory. All in all, an incredible gameplan, effort, and execution on both sides of the ball resulting in getting in the win-column and getting in a good mood heading into Tennessee.
Matchup
The Titans are an interesting bunch. They too could easily be 2-0, but had QB issues in Week 1 at Soldier Field vs. Chicago and had a blocked punt in Week 2 vs. the Jets. Last week was a back-and-forth game, vs. a very solid defense, and were able to move the ball, but were ultimately held out of the end zone on their last drive of the game. Tennessee received the ball at their own 30 with 4:31 left on the clock, down 24-17. The Jets’ defense held the Titans by sacking Will Levis on a 3rd & Goal from NYJ’s 8 yard line, and forcing an incompletion on 4th & Goal from the Jets’ 14 yard line. This team is tough, and has a solid defense. However, the offenses they’ve faced have had problems of their own, and their QB doesn’t make things easier. The Titans are giving up 24 points/game (24 points in each game, actually) and have struggled to score 17, albeit vs. very very good defenses. The Packers’ defense will need to generate a strong, early, and constant pass rush on passing down to get Levis uncomfortable and force bad throws/decisions, because the Titans’ running game is likely to have success. Generating those turnovers AND SCORING TOUCHDOWNS OFF OF THEM will be paramount. Having Malik Willis’ “Redemption Game” (having being demoted to 3rd string in Tennessee before trading him to Green Bay) would be a great story, Jordan Love playing gives the offense the best chance to convert those turnovers to touchdowns.
The tricky thing about Tennessee, is while I believe their QB, Will Levis, isn’t all that good he has faced possibly the 2 best defenses in the NFL. The Bears and Jets can each cover quite well and get after the quarterback in the pass game. The Jets are also solid vs. the run, so to assume the Packers will have the same kind of success is dangerous. With that, Green Bay has shown the ability to generate turnovers, and Levis will make poor decisions throughout the game – catching those poor decisions will give Green Bay the opportunity to kill Titan drives and put points on the board.
Prediction
Regardless if Jordan Love plays, I think Malik Willis proved to many that he’s more than capable of handling the task from Matt LaFleur and winning a football game. Whether that’s through ground and pound, or through the air, he has the mind, tools, and legs to generate positive plays and is smart enough to keep the ball safe.
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