Pack Marches Past Commanders

The Packers were about as efficient as possible, outside of the penalties. Green Bay committed 10 penalties resulting in 77 yards, and countless points taken off the board (and some added to Washington). Had rookie RT Anthony Belton not committed a hold on Jayden Reed’s touchdown reception, and the Packers didn’t commit a defensive hold on Washington’s 4th down near the goal line, this game easily could’ve been 34-10, just on those two penalties alone.

National Perception

It’s been quite some time since the national media acknowledged the Packers as a true power in the entire league – deservedly so. Green Bay clearly looks to be a top 3 team in the entire NFL, along with Buffalo and Philadelphia. However, even each of Philly’s wins, they easily could’ve lost each game and Buffalo needed an epic comeback against another great team to not drop one.

This is the most-accurate power rankings I could find, I mean I could do it myself, but I’m not concerned with half the league as they won’t even be competing for a playoff spot come Thanksgiving. The top 3 teams are clear, as of now – consisting of Green Bay, Buffalo, and Philadelphia. Each have their flaws, but the Packers undoubtedly look like the most complete team of the 3 having beaten top tier opponents in dominant fashion. It’s a long season, however…

Team Stats

To further prove the Pack’s domination, they relinquished 230 yards across 65 plays (3.5 yards/play) and holding their opponents through 2 weeks to 2.4 yards/rush. They keep that up, it’ll be tough to lose a game unless you commit a bunch of turnovers in your own territory or ones that result in touchdowns (*cough cough* special teams).

The offense, again, has been efficient in ¾ of the games so far, the 3rd quarter is the missing factor. Green Bay has scored 3 points in the 3rd quarter through the first 2 games this season. While starting hot is great, coming out of halftime is a tone-setter for finishing the game. Again, this is nitpicking, but it’s something. Especially if Green Bay gets the ball to start the 2nd half, you want to come out and at least get points to keep momentum.

Tucker Kraft

Kraft had a coming out party on the National stage, but essentially every Packer fan knew who he was and what he’s capable of. This isn’t his first “huge” game and likely won’t be his last. The guy can do it all and he has the right mentality for that position – akin to an aggressive defensive player, takes the attack to his opponent, it’s refreshing. He finished the game with 6 receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown. He’s more than just a security blanket, but likely the most productive target for Jordan Love. Keeping him available and healthy will be essential for this offense and if it plans to accomplish what many believe can be…

Where Does This Leave Green Bay Now?

Again, while it’s still early, the Packers have put themselves in great shape to start the season and should be eyeing up the 1-seed (homefield advantage throughout the playoffs plus a Wild Card Round bye). Green Bay currently has tiebreakers over Detroit and Washington, whom everyone thinks will be there in the end of the season…assuming Detroit doesn’t finish with a better divisional record than Green Bay (belaboring the point – the Packers ended up looking more impressive after Detroit hung 52 on Chicago last Sunday), but Detroit is now 1-1 in the division.

The game coming up against Cleveland is your typical Trap Game, interconference opponent who’s 0-2, possesses a solid defense, and will be very hungry to get a win.

What’s Next?

The season ended far sooner than many anticipated. Green Bay picked a poor time to play their worst game of the season – not that it is a choice. The Eagles ultimately proved to be the most complete team in the NFL with their dismantling of the 2-time defending NFL Champion Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX this past Sunday.

My Predictions for 2024 vs. What Happened

I predicted Green Bay to finish 12-5 (one off their actual record), earning the 2-seed. I did not see Detroit ‘nor Minnesota having as strong as regular seasons as they ended up having. Guessing correctly on 4 NFC playoff teams and 4 AFC playoff teams brining the correct guess total of 8 of 14 (57%) which isn’t bad. The prediction of the Buffalo Bills winning their first Super Bowl over the Green Bay Packers wasn’t terribly far off, but off nonetheless. Picking Philadelphia to finish as the 7-seed losing to the 2nd-seeded Packers in the Wild Card was just a reverse of what happened. All in all, fairly happy with the predictions.

What Actually Happened…

Eagles 22, Packers 10

This game was a microcosm of the entire Packers’ season. Inconsistency on offense, poor special teams, and a defense that kept them in it until the damn burst. The one bright spot, also consistent all season, is this team never gave up. They fought for all 60 minutes. Not every team does this, and there is no guarantee Green Bay will do it next year, but it’s likely they will. The main difference – if you boil it down to one item – Philadelphia was far tougher, physically. They punched Green Bay in the mouth (literally) on the opening kick off which set the tone for the entire game. Should it have been a penalty? Yes. Did Nixon recover? Yes. Would that have changed the outcome of the game? Not likely. Even taking into account momentum (which is impossible to chart), the Eagles battered Green Bay in all 3 phases for 60 minutes and it showed. There were 2 Packers that strapped up the helmet and came to play: Josh Jacobs; Edgerrin Cooper. Other than those two, the teams were vastly different.

The good news? After seeing what Philadelphia did to Los Angeles, Washington, and ultimately Kansas City, the Packers are right there in terms of talent. The key is execution. Entering 2025 the “youngest team in the league” will no longer be an excuse as they’ve now had 2 full seasons with 3 playoff games worth of experience. This is GO time for the Green Bay Packers and anything short of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy should be deemed a failed season.

Just How Close Are the Packers?

As stated above, Green Bay is right in the mix with the top teams. Likely coming in that 2nd tier, just behind Philadelphia, Detroit, Kansas City, and Buffalo. They’re in the mix with Baltimore, Washington (although I believe they’re better than the “Commanders”), Houston, and Los Angeles (both Chargers and Rams).

The Packers were the epitome of their record is what you are. In terms of point differential (the best indicator of a team’s true strength), Green Bay ranked 5th in the NFL in that category. Their record against teams that ranked worse? 11-3. Their record against teams that ranked better? 0-4 (2 losses each against Detroit and Philadelphia). Should Green Bay improve, other than organically – which is very possible and by design – they will need to find a pass rush, add depth on the offensive line and defensive backfield. Whether that’s banking on Jaire Alexander being healthy for a full season (dangerous), or adding through free agency, the Packers are in a position to be a bit aggressive in the “going for it” department.

Myles Garrett – all world pass rusher of the Cleveland Browns publicly asked to be traded.

Should Green Bay target Myles Garrett, Maxx Crosby, or Micah Parsons? Without a doubt. Will they be able to give up enough to match other contenders in that race? Likely not, but there’s a chance. Parsons is the intriguing one as Dallas has an owner who is borderline delusional, then again so is the entire Cleveland franchise, so there’s hope. The good news is there’s a chance all 3 could realistically move on from their current employers, creating triple the opportunity to add a need. The question is what to give up?

What Other Needs?

Josh Jacobs made headlines, locally, with his comments during media week in New Orleans leading up the Super Bowl, stating something to the effect of “needing a true #1 wide receiver.” Current Packers wideout, Dontayvion Wicks took offense to that posting something on his social media. I, for one, don’t believe the Packers need a true #1 wideout, but rather having depth and having Love throw to the open guy is the best remedy for success. Health is a huge factor in that, as by the end of the Wild Card game at Lincoln Financial Field the Packers were without their top 3 wide receivers…that’s an issue for any team.

With rookie Cooper DeJean making one of the biggest impact plays of Super Bowl LIX (pick-6 to put Philadelphia up 17-0), many (me included) wanted to draft DeJean with the Packers’ first selection. However, not having DeJean wasn’t the reason Green Bay fell to the eventual Super Bowl champs. Offensive line depth came back to bite them in a huge way. With Elgton Jenkins getting knocked out of the game, then starting Center Josh Myers busting up his leg, the Packers’ OL quickly went downhill and made an already near impossible task of keeping Philly’s pass rush at bay that much harder. Rookie Jordan Morgan missed most of the season and wasn’t available for the postseason…having him could’ve changed the game, but we’ll never know. Just goes to show, even when you have a very good offensive line – which Green Bay typically does, and did this year – you can never have enough good o-linemen. Hell, drafting another OL in the 1st round in 2025 shouldn’t be met with scrutiny, even though it will.

The true need for this roster is depth. Sure, adding an All-Pro pass rusher like Garrett, Crosby, or Parsons would absolutely help, but in terms of true “need,” Green Bay just needs depth. As LaFleur said after the playoff exit, the defense played winning football, the offense and special teams did not. He is right. Nixon and Valentine played very well, well enough to win with an offense putting out a B- production. Should the Packers move on from Jaire Alexander, cornerback will be a definite priority, as well as adding offensive line, depending on whether they bring Josh Myers back…then again, with WR Christian Watson missing likely the entire next season, another WR wouldn’t hurt either.

Green Bay is in position to literally take the best player available in the draft at their spot and it’ll help them, possibly even immediately. It would be great to add a proven pass rusher and even another along the defensive line to help. Hell, even having Lukas Van Ness step up and produce to what he is capable of would be tremendous. However, we’re past the point of expecting him to be anything more than he is…

Time to Go 1-0

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles | 2024 Wild Card Preview
The #7 seed Packers (11-6) travel to Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA to take on the #2 seed Eagles (14-3) this Sunday, January 12 at 3:30pm CST.

Packers- Season Review

The 2024 Green Bay Packers, while frustrating, have vastly improved from last season. The Packers improved offensively in rushing, total yardage, and points – as well as improved on the defensive side of the ball in rushing, total yardage, scoring and taking the ball away. Most importantly (aside from wins/losses, of course) Green Bay improved in their scoring differential from 10th (+33) to 5th (+122), which is the best determinate of a team’s true strength. The biggest change was the rush defense and takeaway difference, that’s all due to newly hired Defensive Coordinator, Jeff Hafley.

As alluded to above, the Packers are trending in the right direction. When a team rebuilds (new Head Coach and/or QB) it typically takes 4 years to compete for/win a Super Bowl.

  • 1st Year – get experience and rebuild the roster identity
  • 2nd Year – contend for/possibly make the postseason
  • 3rd Year – make the playoffs/win a playoff game
  • 4th Year – become one of the strongest teams in the NFL and compete for a Super Bowl

The Packers accomplished the 2nd/3rd-year objective in Year 1. They’re almost 2 years ahead of schedule. That much be kept in mind should Green Bay fall short of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season.

The question now becomes, can Green Bay beat a “good” team? It’s a valid question as their best wins are against The LA Rams (when they were missing both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua), the Houston Texans (they haven’t looked nearly as good this year vs. last season), and the Seattle Seahawks (while going 10-7, missed the playoffs). Green Bay is a better team than last year, but the top tier teams in the NFC are better than the top tier teams in last year’s NFC. It comes down to turnovers and slow starts. Should Green Bay be able to score at least field goals on their first 2 drives instead of settling for punts or putting the ball on the ground, that would go a long way into setting them selves up to beat a “good” team.

Who Are the Philadelphia Eagles?

The 2024 Philadelphia Eagles have been the 2nd best team in the NFC the entire regular season. After beating Green Bay in the season opener in Bazil, the Eagles inexplicably dropped a home game to Atlanta, then two weeks later dropped a game to Tampa Bay (who knocked them out of the playoff a season ago). From there, they went on a 10-game winning streak until Jalen Hurts was knocked out of their Dec. 22nd matchup vs. Washington and they lost that game late. The Eagles’ defense has been superb under Vic Fangio, ranking in the top 10 in all categories (rushing, passing, total yards, and scoring) along with having 26 takeaways (6th). However, the Packers did hang 29 points on them in that Week 1 matchup, but most of that came after the 1st quarter after Love and LaFleur settled in. Green Bay would likely need to come out aggressive – while still focusing on the rush game – to open up that Philly D.

Matchup

The Eagles did draft Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean to severely help their secondary from last season. DeJean is beginning to play quite a bit more now, but Mitchell has been a stud all year for Philly. As you can see, they’re 1st against the pass in the entire league, and they’re 1st in the NFL in yards given up by a whopping 32.8 yards/game. That’s incredible, considering the rest of the league is then separated by 1-2 yards/game per ranking. The method to combat this is to find explosive plays – which is going to be tough because the Eagles don’t allow those – and getting takeaways. Giving Jordan Love a short field to with which to work, will vastly increase the Packers’ chances of putting up points.

As I’ve stated before and will die on this hill, there’s almost no reason to “go for it” on 4th down in the 1st half instead of kicking a field goal, unless you’re in a weird area of the field (say the opposing 40 to 45 yard line), just take the points. Especially in the red zone. While scoring touchdowns in the red zone is one of the biggest determining factors in the outcome of a game, not taking those 3 points almost always comes back to bite later in the game and changes the decision-making, putting your offense in an unnecessary hole.

How Does Green Bay Win?

As always, show me the QB that played better, and I’ll show you the team that won. This always doesn’t come down to pure statistics, but managing the game outcome to a win. There will be 3-4 huge plays in this game and the QB that comes up with those will win. The only negating factor to that are turnovers. They’re such a momentum changer and overall equalizer, that’s always the focus for every team every game.

In order for Green Bay to come out victorious they’ll need to play at least an A- game. Getting 2+ turnovers while not committing any themselves, getting sustained drives and converting 3rd downs will be the key. Keep your defense off the field and wear down theirs. Philadelphia has the overall best defense in the NFL and keeping them on the field getting gassed is the best way to break them.

Should Green Bay continue their run-heavy focus, especially in the 1st quarter, that should go a long way to wearing down the defense in the later parts of the game. We’ve seen this in the recent games vs. Detroit and Minnesota. “Slow starts” however keeping with the ground game eventually opens up the run and pass lanes later in the game with lesser pass rush. That said, taking a few shots early and being aggressive is always welcome, especially in a win-or-go-home game. Packers being ahead of schedule are essentially playing with house money and hopefully will play loose.

Prediction Time

Let’s see how rusty Jalen Hurts is after not playing since December 22nd, and only playing 12 snaps at that. If Green Bay can take advantage and get a jump on them early, say jumping out to a 14-0 or 14-3 lead, the fans may turn on their Eagles and it could get ugly.

I see this being a close game, regardless of the outcome. GO PACK GO!

Season: 14-3
Overall: 106-69