The Packers were about as efficient as possible, outside of the penalties. Green Bay committed 10 penalties resulting in 77 yards, and countless points taken off the board (and some added to Washington). Had rookie RT Anthony Belton not committed a hold on Jayden Reed’s touchdown reception, and the Packers didn’t commit a defensive hold on Washington’s 4th down near the goal line, this game easily could’ve been 34-10, just on those two penalties alone.
National Perception
It’s been quite some time since the national media acknowledged the Packers as a true power in the entire league – deservedly so. Green Bay clearly looks to be a top 3 team in the entire NFL, along with Buffalo and Philadelphia. However, even each of Philly’s wins, they easily could’ve lost each game and Buffalo needed an epic comeback against another great team to not drop one.
This is the most-accurate power rankings I could find, I mean I could do it myself, but I’m not concerned with half the league as they won’t even be competing for a playoff spot come Thanksgiving. The top 3 teams are clear, as of now – consisting of Green Bay, Buffalo, and Philadelphia. Each have their flaws, but the Packers undoubtedly look like the most complete team of the 3 having beaten top tier opponents in dominant fashion. It’s a long season, however…
Team Stats
To further prove the Pack’s domination, they relinquished 230 yards across 65 plays (3.5 yards/play) and holding their opponents through 2 weeks to 2.4 yards/rush. They keep that up, it’ll be tough to lose a game unless you commit a bunch of turnovers in your own territory or ones that result in touchdowns (*cough cough* special teams).
The offense, again, has been efficient in ¾ of the games so far, the 3rd quarter is the missing factor. Green Bay has scored 3 points in the 3rd quarter through the first 2 games this season. While starting hot is great, coming out of halftime is a tone-setter for finishing the game. Again, this is nitpicking, but it’s something. Especially if Green Bay gets the ball to start the 2nd half, you want to come out and at least get points to keep momentum.
Tucker Kraft
Kraft had a coming out party on the National stage, but essentially every Packer fan knew who he was and what he’s capable of. This isn’t his first “huge” game and likely won’t be his last. The guy can do it all and he has the right mentality for that position – akin to an aggressive defensive player, takes the attack to his opponent, it’s refreshing. He finished the game with 6 receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown. He’s more than just a security blanket, but likely the most productive target for Jordan Love. Keeping him available and healthy will be essential for this offense and if it plans to accomplish what many believe can be…
Where Does This Leave Green Bay Now?
Again, while it’s still early, the Packers have put themselves in great shape to start the season and should be eyeing up the 1-seed (homefield advantage throughout the playoffs plus a Wild Card Round bye). Green Bay currently has tiebreakers over Detroit and Washington, whom everyone thinks will be there in the end of the season…assuming Detroit doesn’t finish with a better divisional record than Green Bay (belaboring the point – the Packers ended up looking more impressive after Detroit hung 52 on Chicago last Sunday), but Detroit is now 1-1 in the division.
The game coming up against Cleveland is your typical Trap Game, interconference opponent who’s 0-2, possesses a solid defense, and will be very hungry to get a win.
It’s the good guys in all-white…the Winter Warning is upon us, again. Tonight is a matchup of playoff teams from a season ago. The Commanders were the surprise of the 2024 season much like the Packers of the 2023, except they won their Divisional Round matchup at the 1-seeded Lions while Green Bay fell to the eventual NFC champion 49ers.
Week 2 Matchup
The Commanders struggled early with the New York Giants. Washington was able to control the game, but New York was in it for much of the matchup. Their defense shut down the G-men, however, Russell Wilson was complicit. Both defenses put forth good showings, however Green Bay’s was far more impressive as it came against 2024’s #1 offense.
Yes, this is only 1 game’s worth of statistics, so the sample size is as small as it can be, but it’s important to show what’s been done. Washington was able to run the ball while Green Bay passed the first test without Kenny Clark. This will be another test and holding Washington’s offense will first come from stopping the run. If play action is there for the taking, 2nd year QB, Jayden Daniels, will have the weapon of his choosing – whether it’s passing to a wide open receiver or taking off and ripping off huge chunks of yardage with his legs. He’s as dangerous a runner at QB as Lamar Jackson, and he might be more accurate. Generating pressure, quick pressure that is, will be paramount, but keeping the rush lane integrity will be just as important. There likely will be less stunts (D linemen shifting across the line to free up other rushers to penetrate) and more pure bull and speed rushes from the outside. Ideally, if the middle can generate a rush while the edges keep contain, that’s where you can get Daniels off his game and you can stifle this Commanders offense.
The other item, we always talk about, are turnovers. Generating them and not giving the football away. This is a great matchup and I fully expect each of these teams to make the playoffs once again, likely each winning at least a game. Whichever QB plays better (again, almost as always) their team will win the game…that comes with taking care of the ball (no turnovers).
What a satement!!! I can’t remember a time where the Packers opened the season with such a proclamation. Jordan Love and the offense set the tone from the get-go. Green Bay took the opening kickoff and marched 83 yards on 12 plays and finishing in the end zone after a 5:34 drive. The ensuing Detroit possession was a 3 & out after losing 4 yards on the drive. The Packers followed it up with another scoring drive to take command of the game.
Detroit showed some life by putting together a 16-play, 78-yard drive taking off a whopping 9:31 off the clock, but settled for 3. After that kind of drive, had the Lions scored a touchdown, would’ve snatched momentum right back, however LaFleur dialed up a shot-play and the offense executed it to perfection. One play later Jayden Reed was hauling in a touchdown grab to (for all intents and purposes) ice the game. The defense, prior to the meaningless TD, had relinqueshed 181 yards and 6 points in the first 55:38 of the game. That’s incredible considering the Lions had the #1 offense (in scoring) last season. Just a bang up job. If you read last week, you’d know my concern was the rush defense and how it would hold up witih verteran Kenny Clark being traded to Dallas. The Packers held Detroit to 46 yards rushing on 22 attempts (2.1 yards/att.). Makes it difficult to lose when you stuff the run and make the opposing team 1-dimentional.
I like to review the team stats after each game to see if anything sticks out. After a loss, I always check two items: 1. Turnovers; 2. Time of Possession. While Green Bay lost the ToP (time of possession) category, mainly due to Detroit’s 9:31 drive, they controlled the game from the onset and dictated throughout. The 1 turnover in teh game was a direct impact from newcomer Micah Parsons. He made QB Jared Goff very uncomfortable causing him to get “happy feet” which no QB likes. With Goff’s inability to create space with his legs, he had to rush throws and Parson’s quick pressure caused the Evan Williams interception.
Anything to Clean Up?
Jordan Love was amazing on the first 3 drives of the game, racking up 184 yards on 21 plays, taking off 9:41 from the clock while putting up 17 points (5.667 points/possession). Absolutely dominant, however there were 2 plays that easily could’ve swung the game away from them and put Detroit in the driver’s chair. The first was a pick-6 Love threw while targeting Tucker Kraft. Brian Branch, who took Tucker Kraft’s helmet and tossed it on the opening drive of the season, came up with a pick-6, however there were 2 penalties on the play, both against Detroit – and both were ticky-tack, at best. Detroit CB, Rock Ya-Sin, was called for defensive holding nullifying the interception. By rule, it was defensive holding, however in the playoffs the refs likely let them play. The other penalty, which Green Bay declined, was on DE Adam Hutchinson, for hitting Jordan Love during the interception return. The rule is in place to protect the QB, however Love was heading towards Branch and Hutchinson put him on the ground…it’s football and these guys are wearing pads, but I digress.
All in all, a total team win and an A+ start to the season. Big test coming up in Week 2, and a short week at that!
The reigning NFC 1-seed and NFC North Champs head to Lambeau Field on Sunday, September 7th to take on the news-making Green Bay Packers.
Detroit is coming off their best season in franchise history, and retained many of their players however, lost both of their coordinators (OC Ben Johnson and DC Aaron Glenn). Due to these departures many claim that Detroit will have a “fall off” season. I believe they’ll drop their win total a bit, but not due to the coordinators vacating, but due to Washington exposing them in the playoffs last year. Let’s keep in mind, Dan Campbell is a master motivator and a very good Head Coach. With that, he depends on his coordinators and positional coaches to scheme for the team. Time will tell if the Lions can retain their spot atop the NFC, but that’s awfully hard to do when you don’t lose your brain trust.
Matchup Matrix
Detroit was the best team in point differential a season ago, while Green Bay finished 6th in that category. The Lions’ defense was a problem for them, and the reason they got smoked in the Divisional Round vs. the Commanders last year. The Motor City Kitties were missing star pass rusher, Aiden Hutchinson, for a majority of the season and get him back – we’ll see if he’s back to full health. On the flip side, the Lions should have (one of) the best offense(s) in the NFL and a major victory for any team will be holding them to <30 points every game.
The 2024 Packers seemed like a team that never got rolling, and while it did feel like that (and is more true than not) Green Bay did improve their record from 2023 by 2 games while leaving 5 losses that easily could’ve (should’ve) been wins. This team is close and when they put together a game (they did 1-2 times last year) they’re unbeatable. This matchup could easily be the best two teams in the NFC, maybe the NFL and we get it in Week 1 in a divisional matchup!
We’ve covered the major acquisition (Micah Parsons) for the Packers as well as discussed, the major departures (Clark and Slaton) which will negatively impact the rush defense (ranked 7th against the run in 2024), but the biggest difference this season and what will propel the Packers to a Super Bowl championship aren’t those two areas…it’ll be the health and efficiency of their Quarterback, Jordan Love. In each of the previous 2 Hall of Fame QB’s Green Bay has had, in their 3rd seasons as starters, they had immense success:
2010 Aaron Rodgers: won Super Bowl XLV
1994 Brett Favre: took the Packers to the Divisional Round and lost to the Dallas Dynasty
This is Love’s 3rd year as The Man and a Divisional Round loss won’t cut it. However, Favre was only age 25 in his 3rd year starting while Rodgers and Love were 27. It’s been covered, but each of the previously mentioned Hall of Famers won Super Bowls in the year they turned 27…Love turns 27 on November 2nd this year.
What does this have to do with the game? Both of these teams’ expectations are to win the Super Bowl, and anything less should be considered a failure of a season. Expect a tight game, likely throughout with neither team having a lead larger than 14 points at any given time and it will come down to the last possession. If it’s a shootout, it favors Detroit as they have playmakers-a-plenty on offense and the Packers have a bunch of unknowns at defensive back (Nixon is solid)…Packer fans are not familiar with Hobbs (free agent signee from Las Vegas), and Bo Melton switched from WR to CB this camp and hasn’t played during live bullets.
As stated above, if the Packers can hold Detroit to less than 30 points, they should win and it would be huge considering Green Bay’s first 2 games are against 2 of the best the NFC has to offer – not only from a competitive standpoint, but the tiebreakers will be huge!
Prediction Time
Detroit boasts the better team as they’ve won 4 consecutive games in Lambeau Field. It’s time for that to change, but will it? I think with the addition of Micah Parsons, Green Bay has the tools to beat everyone, however he’ll likely be on a snap count (missing the entire Summer camp comes at a cost) as well as Jayden Reed missing significant time, among others (Hobbs, Lloyd, Love, etc.) there will be quite a bit of rust to knock off prior to playing their best ball.
In arguably the biggest non-draft acquisition since Reggie White, the Green Bay Packers have committed to NOW. The challenge for Packer Nation will be the increased expectations. This move isn’t to win a (singular) Super Bowl. This is to win multiple rings in the next 4 years. It’s a good thing. The team was trending to win a Super Bowl in this 4-year window prior to acquiring the best, youngest pass rusher in the NFL, however now that Parsons is here, it’s go time!
Akin to Reggie White, Parsons is the only player to have 12+ sacks in each of his first four NFL seasons, and with Green Bay acquiring him, it elevates the already heightened urgency at 1265 Lombardi Ave. Speaking of Lombardi, Micah Parsons will be the first Packer to don #1 since Curly Lambeau…drawing even more attention and expectations. All in all, this makes the Packers a much better team, but it came at a significant cost; two 1st round draft picks (2026 & 2027); DT Kenny Clark. While Clark seems old, he’s only 29 and likely has another 3-4 prime seasons left. If he doesn’t, then the trade favors Green Bay even more. The upside to this trade is that drafting/developing a Hall of Fame player is already hard enough, so when you can acquire one, it always helps.
This move may have happened due to Packers new President, Ed Policy, essentially communicating that “we’ll see” about Head Coach Matt Lafleur’s and General Manager Brian Gutekunst’s job security. That likely upped the urgency for them to make a splash now vs. waiting to see if the roster they rebuilt is in line to accomplish a goal worthy of hanging a banner in Lambeau Field – winning a World Championship.
2025 NFL Season…How Will It Play Out?
The NFL season kicks off tonight with the defending champs, the Philadelphia Eagles taking on the circus of the Dallas Cowboys. While Green Bay gave up quite a bit, the return of a 26-year old, Hall of Fame-pace, edge rusher seems like quite the deal…for the Packers. Most of the NFL world was shocked, as I was, to see Green Bay land Micah Parsons for only two 1st round picks and an aging DT in Kenny Clark. Leave it to Jerry Jones to bring the attention to the Cowboys, something they succeed at, consistently, whether it’s good or not.
How will the season shake out? Will Philly win back-to-back? Will Kansas City keep their reign of supremecy over the AFC? Maybe this is the year Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen finally get over the Chief hurdle and make the Super Bowl.
I, as every year, went through every game for every team, selecting a winner and loser so their records are appropriate based off those selections. Keep in mind, these records may be accurate, but it’s more likely the seeding is a bit more accurate than the records resemble.
I expect Detroit to have a bit of a setback, yes due to both coordinators leaving, but they’ve been riding high for 2 seasons and I believe Washington exposed Detroit in the Divisional Round last year. Detroit seems vulnerable to aggressive offenses…they’re still a very good team, but I don’t believe they’ll earn the 1-seed and will be in a fight for the division.
Buffalo is another team that may struggle a bit more than seasons past and while still very talented and well-coached, will likely “struggle” relative to what the Bills have been. There are always surprise teams, but there are teams I expect to take a jump. Most notably the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos. Both teams seem to be trending strongly in the right direction and put up a decent showing last season.
Wild Card Round
There are some great matchups, and I believe that San Francisco will be one of the strongest teams in the NFL this year and will show it by knocking off Detroit for the second time in 3 years. The Packers will get the up-and-coming Commanders, but must hold homefield advantage when they can…we shall see.
Divisional Round
The Packers have a chance at retribution against San Francisco, ideally beating them in a home playoff game and giving Shanahan a much-needed loss…considering Rodgers is no longer quarterbacking the Packers, this is a likely scenario.
Championship Sunday
One of the best sports days of the year, Championship Sunday. This poses rematches, on the AFC side a repeat of the 2021 (Jan ’22) AFC title game, and Burrow gets it done again. Sending the Bengals to the Super Bowl for the second time in four seasons. In the NFC, another Packers v Eagles playoff matchup. Expect the Packers to put forth greater execution, but the Eagles’ offensive line and Saquon Barkely are too much to handle with the absense of Kenny Clark and TJ Slaton on the D-line. This would set up a great star-studded matchup between Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts.
Philadelphia has the best roster for postseason success – a great defense, the best offensive line, the best running back, and a capable QB that is responsible with the football. That puts so much pressure on the opposition to be perfect and when there’s pressure to be perfect you get execution akin to the Packers in Philadelphia in last year’s Wild Card. The Eagles pose a huge threat to Cincinnati’s deficiencies (rush D and defense overall) that Burrow will want to get into a shootout, but Philly typically dictates the pace of the game and can win in any manner. The Eagles will hoist the Lombardi trophy once again…then again, I’ve been wrong many times before.
Rookie LB, Edgerrin Cooper (#56) had his best game as a pro. (photo credit: Evan Siegel; packers.com)
Green Bay played their most complete game of the season – at least vs. a worthy opponent – by getting out to a perfect start. The Packers set the tone off their first 2 drives of the game by running 18 plays for 143 yards, taking 10:30 off the clock and scoring 14 points on them…absolutely beautiful.
The Packers were able to stick with the run game gaining 140 yards on 34 rush attempts (4.1 avg.), and controlled the game from the onset. QB Jordan Love didn’t have an incompletion until the 3rd drive and even at that the pass was right there and had Doubs picked it up in the air, it would’ve been a TD.
The other player that flew under the radar was Christian Watson. #9 had 3 receptions for 56 yards plus a huge pass interference penalty for another 39 yards. Essentially finishing with 4 grabs for 95 yards…he really stresses the defense with his speed and when he shows a knack for catching the ball – as he did on that sideline throw – he’s a weapon.
In the postgame locker room speech, Head Coach Matt LaFleur gave out two game balls:
Romeo Doubs: 3 catches; 40 yards; 2 TD (he too had a PI for 34 yards, and didn’t see his other target which would’ve been another TD).
Edgerrin Cooper: 7 tackles; 2 tackles for loss; 1 sack; 1 INT
Cooper played his best game as a pro and this is why many have wanted him playing all season long. He can cover the pass and rush the passer creating havoc in the backfield.
Another player who’s performed fairly well for his expectations this season has been Keison Nixon. While known as a solid kick returner, he’s filled in admirably for the Packers in their secondary. He made a few plays that aren’t memorable, but during the game he shows his solid tackling ability. That’s a huge part of this defense is limiting YAC (yards after catch), and he’s been very solid all year with this.
Also, while I’m not a huge fan of PFF (Pro Football Focus), they have solid ratings from time to time and when they align with what my eyes tell me, it’s worthwhile to share. I always thought Carrington Valentine was our #2 corner coming into the season (behind Jaire Alexander) and am happy to see him get a ton more snaps, he showed it against Seattle. He had a pass defensed in the red zone that he could’ve intercepted, then on the very next play dropped off his man in zone coverage and picked off his 1st pass in the NFL. Valentine getting these crucial snaps in big games can only help Green Bay for a deep playoff run.
Current Standing
The top 3 teams in the NFC didn’t change, however Minnesota clinched a playoff berth with the Packers victory over Seattle, then went on to crush Chicago to stay 2 games ahead (and own the tiebreaker) of Green Bay. Should the playoffs begin today, Minnesota would travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams, Washington would head to division rival Philadelphia to face the Eagles, and the Packers would meet up with the red-hot Buccaneers in Tampa.
As for New Orleans, they started the season as hot as anyone in football, blasting the Panthers in Week 1, 47-10, then boat raced the Cowboys 44-19 in Week 2. Since then, they lost 7-straight, got their Head Coach fired, and currently sit at 5-9 with only a -3-point differential (thanks to those first 2 weeks). While technically still alive for a playoff spot, the Saints are in shambles and don’t resemble a team fighting for its playoff lives. This is a good team for Green Bay to face to “keep the momentum rolling” heading into a huge matchup next week (mainly for the 5-seed in the NFC) in Minneapolis.
Matchup
On paper, this is an epic mis-match. Green Bay “shouldn’t” have any issues taking it to this team. However, that’s why they play the game… The Packers outrank the Saints in every category other than giving the ball away, which Green Bay has vastly improved with Jordan Love not tossing picks. The Packers have lost a fumble in each of the last 2 games, and that must improve as turnovers are absolute killers in the postseason.
New Orleans may be missing some of their playmakers which will give them an opportunity to build for 2025, but they do have some quality players on this team…mainly Alvin Kamara (HB #41) and a young stud Kool-Aid (yes his real name) McKinstry (CB #14) – but both are listed as QUESTIONABLE to play. In addition to them not being good, they’re also banged up and as long as the Packers treat this like they did Seattle, they should obliterate them in every facet of the game. Keep winning the time of possession, turnover battle, and penalties and the Packers should come finish off Week 16 on Monday Night Football with an 11-4 record.
Packers’ CB, Eric Stokes. (photo credit: Evan Siegel; packers.com)
This may have been one of, if not the, most one-sided officiated games I’ve ever seen. By count, the Lions benefitted, at least, 15 points from the zebras – the officials dictated the outcome of the game. With that being said, the better team still won.
Green Bay can’t start the game with Punt, Punt, and Fumble on their first 3 drives, falling behind 10-0, against one of the NFL’s top teams, especially on the road and expect to win. The deciding factor in the game was the defense getting absolutely torched in the throw game, especially on play-action and the screen game. The 3 phases the Defense must not allow, Detroit mastered and executed at a Super Bowl-winning level:
Play Action
3rd down conversions
4th down conversions
Play Action – Jared Goff’s stat line on play action was 14/18 (77.8%), 149 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, for a QB Rating of 119.2. That simply is unacceptable for a defense that’s striving to win a Lombardi Trophy. Detroit also converted 7-15 (46.7%) of 3rd downs, which would put them 2nd in the NFL if that was their season-long conversion avg. When you incorporate 4th downs, Detroit was successful on 4 of their 5 fourth down attempts. Essentially putting them at 11-15 on 3rd down conversions, with two of those resulting in touchdowns. The defense must be better, both in the pass rush and coverage. Missing Jaire Alexander (more on him later), Edgerrin Cooper, and Evan Williams definitely played into this.
What to Take From this Game
After sleeping on it for a few nights, Green Bay is still a full year ahead of schedule (rebuilds typically take 2-3 years to begin competing, the Packers did this in Year 1, at least a full year ahead), however it felt like the season was over for 1 reason. They couldn’t beat Detroit in ideal conditions on 7 days’ rest with Detroit missing their two beasts on the D-line, and Green Bay couldn’t run the ball…Sure Green Bay was missing guys too; however, everyone is beat up by December and very rarely in full health come postseason. The silver lining is Green Bay is still young (youngest in the NFL) and will only improve, but time’s running out.
Green Bay also needs to do a much better job of Time of Possession…the Packers currently rank 15th in the NFL, but having the 5th most rushing yards in the NFL, that ranking should be towards the top-10 helping their defense even more.
Current Standing/Situation
Standings as of 12/14/2024, after Thu Night Week 15 (LAR @ SF).
Green Bay currently sits in the 6th seed, still, behind Minnesota for the highest Wild Card seed and are essentially eliminated from the Division title and the highly-coveted 1-seed. It would still behoove Green Bay to win that 5th-seed as they’d face the worst Division winner in the Wild Card game and keeping away from Detroit as long as possible. There’s actually an outside shot they could host the NFC Championship game should Washington (currently the 7th seed) upset Philadelphia and Detroit to make the title game.
Seattle sits atop the NFC West (3-seed) with the Rams lurking, and should Green Bay beat Seattle, the Rams would overtake the lead in the division. This is a monumental game for Seattle as they’re 8-5 and falling to 8-6 likely would put them on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.
Matchup: Green Bay @ Seattle
Of the standings listed above, Green Bay holds the edge of rankings over Seattle 4:1. The Packers rank much better in rushing offense, total offense, rushing defense, and scoring defense vs. Seattle’s ranking in each department. However, the biggest discrepancy is Seattle’s passing offense vs. Green Bay’s pass defense, 3rd vs. 21st. That could be difference in the game on Sunday night considering the Packers had all sorts of issues getting Detroit off the field.
A good article, from ESPN.com’s Rob Demovsky, highlights where the Packers can expose Seattle’s defense and take control of the game. The last time HB Josh Jacobs faced Seattle (Week 12 of the 2022 season) he had a career game: 39 touches; 303 yards (7.8 yards/touch); 2 touchdowns. While I’d like to save Jacobs (limit his touches) for the postseason, he’s going to be required to tote the ball a ton for this offense to really hum. Should they ride Jacobs, Green Bay can control the ball and force Seattle into obvious pass situations, which is the Packers’ best bet to defend the pass…
The other way the defense can help itself is continuing to take the ball away. The Packers are tied for 8th in the NFL with 12 interceptions, while Seattle is also tied for 8th most in the league with 12 interceptions thrown. There’s an opportunity for Green Bay to take the ball away with the amount of passes QB Geno Smith throws over the course of the game. In addition, Lukas Van Ness has taken advantage of the opportunity presented to him (since trading away Preston Smith) by increasing his pressure rate and is continuing to show improvement – and I believe will only improve with the more reps he receives. The Packers must get after Geno Smith and get him off his spot, consistently, as they’ve given up the 9th most sacks in the NFL (40).
There’s History…
Green Bay hasn’t won in Seattle since 10/12/2008 (Aaron Rodgers’ first year as a starter). Every fan will likely remember the recent history, but there are 3 games that stick out in Packers’ lore:
For Green Bay to win, either their pass defense must show vast improvement or they generate a few turnovers/big plays. This is a much harder task given that Evan Williams is still in concussion protocol and Jaire Alexander is OUT (again), leaving their secondary depleted. It doesn’t help that CB Eric Stokes seems to be just a dreadful 1st round draft pick as he had a great rookie season, but was never able to return to form (let alone improve) following an injury in his sophomore season. The pass rush and secondary must come to play along with the offense putting up touchdowns to help this team beat a hungry, dangerous team on the road in prime time where a bunch of fluky crap happens.
Jaire Alexander
photo credit: Kevin Sabitus; Getty Images.
Both an enigma in personality and availability, Jaire Alexander is without question one of the NFL’s top corners when he’s on the field. Unfortunately for the Green Bay Packers, he’s only played 77 games (of a potential 114) since being drafted in the 1st round of the 2018 NFL Draft. What shouldn’t be ignored is he’s yet to miss a playoff game (6 for 6) and has played in game-changing form in each of those games. There’s a chance that Matt LaFleur and the Packers are being overly cautious with Jaire and resting him to ensure he’s as healthy as can be for the playoffs considering they’re almost essentially guaranteed a playoff spot with just 1 more victory this season. The challenge comes with his future at 1265 Lombardi Ave. as he’s under contract for another 2 seasons (2025 and 2026), but Green Bay has an “out” should they want to move in a different direction since he’s not reliable to be available…I’d keep him as finding a great corner is harder than finding a great QB, but if you’re not available…
Prediction Time
This will likely be a close game and it’s tough to call, but let’s hope the Packers get their most-impressive win of the season tonight…
Given all of the injuries at key positions Green Bay played about as complete a game as one could ask. While only scoring 6 points in the 2nd half, had the correct call been made on the deep shot to Watson in the 4th quarter, and the personal foul on Elgton Jenkins, Green Bay likely scores an additional 11 points (+4 on the TD vs. the field goal and converts a TD instead of punting on that drive. A final of 41-17 looks a helluva lot different than 30-17, but alas those plays/non-PI calls will happen, and yet Green Bay overcame them and completely outplayed Miami in every facet of the game.
Since the Bye Week, Green Bay has won 3 consecutive games and Jordan Love has played about as well as any QB in the NFL during this stretch. Love has completed 47 of his 68 pass attempts (69.1%), for 698 yards, 5 TDs and just 1 INT for a QB Rating of 120.8. That’s MVP-type production, and there has been a smattering of drops by open targets in each of these games. Should the Packers (mainly Dontayvion Wicks) clean up these drops, Green Bay will resemble the unstoppable force they showed to be late last season.
In addition to Love playing well, Josh Jacobs has really stepped up his play which unsurprisingly coincides with the offense running through him as the major focal point. While he was stymied by the Dolphins in the run game, Jacobs still produced getting 23 touches for 117 yards and another TD. Jayden Reed maximized his minimal touches, gaining just 47 yards on 4 touches, but finding the end zone twice.
The defense played well enough to win, with the key being they held Miami to only 17 points. They accomplished this by allowing only 39 yards rushing on 14 attempts (2.8 avg.) and coming up with a key goal line stand when it was only a 2-score game (27-11) with 9:33 left in the game. Had Miami scored there, at minimum it would’ve been a 10-point game with plenty of time left however, Green Bay stuffed them on 2nd down, forced an incompletion on 3rd down, and got a sack on 4th down. A great goal line stand against a very good offense that had little resistance marching up and down the field throughout the game.
WR (#10) Tyreek Hill catches a TD after Packers’ Safety, Xavier McKinney deflects it from intended target, Jonnu Smith. (photo credit: miamidolphins.com).
Concerns From The Game
1st – There were still far too many penalties, one of which essentially took a TD off the board, along with giving Miami second chances and stalling momentum on drives that could’ve made this an easier win than it ended up being.
2nd – when the defense didn’t get pressure on Tua, Miami receivers had plenty of space in the middle of the field for much of the game. The Dolphins converted only 4 of 14 third downs, but went for it on 4th down five times, converting 3 of those. Essentially, Miami went 9-14 on 3rd downs (64.3%), which simply can’t happen. Sure the 4th down stops came at crucial times, but a penalty wiped out a FG attempt and Miami converted the 4th down, for example.
Lastly – Green Bay has been much improved in the Red Zone on offense, but still needs to find a way to convert those to TDs vs Field Goals. One of which was that Elgton Jenkins personal foul. It would’ve been 4th & Goal from inside the 1-yard line, but instead were forced to kick the field goal after the penalty. These are very correctable mistakes and there have been fewer during the win streak, but these need to vacate the Packers’ stat sheet if they want to beat the top teams on the road in the playoffs.
Week 14: (9-3) Packers @ (11-1) Lions
Current Standing
Detroit currently sits as the 1-seed in the NFC Playoff Picture while Green Bay resides in the 6th spot behind Minnesota (10-2), and having already lost to each of these opponents, it’s essentially a must-win game for Green Bay if they have any hopes in winning the division, let alone obtaining the lone bye in the NFC.
Detroit has looked beatable in two of their last 4 games, having beaten Houston after throwing 5 interceptions and needing a Bears clock meltdown to come away with a victory over the choke-ridden Bears. If Green Bay can limit the penalties, not turn the ball over, and do a better job at the run game with Jacobs than they fared on Thanksgiving night, Green Bay has a real shot at winning this game.
Speaking to that, here’s a great explanation, while short, of Chris Canty explaining why he believes the Packers may be the best team in the NFL.
As you can see, Detroit is a juggernaut of an offense, ranking in the top 5 of every category, including 5th in time of possession. They can be had on defense, especially in the pass game. Their run defense is great as they’re usually out to a big lead and their opponents vacate the run and pass to get back into the game. However, keeping with the run is the best method to come back. It may take longer to score, but if a defense has to defend both the pass and run it increases the likelihood of actually scoring a TD which is the first goal. Green Bay should be able to move the ball on Detroit and if they’re able to jump out to a lead, like Houston did, they can generate some turnovers and must score touchdowns to put this team away as they can score from anywhere on the field at any time.
With the return of Romeo Doubs on offense the Packers should be able to exploit the Lions’ secondary and attack with Josh Jacobs to keep Jared Goff off the field. If Jaire Alexander is able to return that will give Green Bay’s defense a significant jumpstart. With Jaire on the field, they’re able to be a bit more aggressive in their coverages allowing for more pressures and a higher chance at mistakes and negative plays by the Lions. If Green Bay can keep Sonic & Knuckles (Gibbs & Montgomery) in check, like they did vs. Miami last week, the Packers will be in control of the game and should be able to dictate the outcome. If both offenses get rolling early and often, the crowd of Ford Field and the assertive nature by Detroit likely will be the difference in the game.
How Can Green Bay Win?
Control the clock, and you control the game. Take the shots when they’re there, otherwise take the checkdowns as the Lions are savaged with injuries on the defensive side of the ball and won’t be able to cover everything at every level. If the Packers are able to get the ground game working early, that’ll open the entire field up for their taking and Matt LaFleur has done an incredible job of exposing defenses during this win streak.
Here’s a good synopsis from jsonline.com writer, Ryan Wood…
Prediction
The Lions have an opportunity to eliminate the Packers from the division, realistically speaking (not formally), and have shown the mindset to stomp on teams’ necks when the opportunity presents itself. It’ll be a raucous environment on Thursday Night Football, and Green Bay will need to get the crowd out of it early by scoring touchdowns on long, extended drives. While the Packers boat-raced Detroit on Thanksgiving last year, the Lions have won 5 of the last 6 matchups. While I think the Packers can win, and if they play well for all 4 quarters, think they will win, I believe Detroit makes just enough plays to pull this one out.
After re-watching the game, very apparent things become very transparent what will hold the Green Bay Packers back from coasting to a Super Bowl victory; the Green Bay Packers.
Green Bay was the better team in almost every facet of the game against Detroit (the league’s best team in my opinion), aside from execution – which is the most important. The massive number of mistakes are impossible to ignore:
Pick-6 (led to 7 points for Detroit)
3 poor snaps (taking at least 3 points off the board for Green Bay)
6 drops (two on crucial 3rd downs and another in the end zone, costing Green Bay at least 10 points)
Missed Field Goal, obviously wiping 3 points off the board for the Packers
Penalties – potentially wiping 7+ points off the board
Total all of those mistakes together and that’s a 30-point differential. Easy to play the what if game, but that directly turns a 10-point loss into a 20-point win. The Packers had no issue moving the ball up and down the field, totaling 411 yards to Detroit’s 261. The Packers had 7 drives end inside Detroit’s 40-yard line, resulting in only 14 points. Even if you kick field goals that’s 21 points and is a much different game just with that outcome.
Who Played Well?
Jordan Love drops unloads a pass vs. the Detroit Lions in Week 9 at Lambeau Field. (photo credit: Emma Pravecek; packers.com).
I’d argue Jordan Love looked extremely good, given the weather conditions, for a majority of the game. There were 2 poor throws (one poor decision, the other a straight miss) throughout the entire game. The pick-6 to Kirby Joesph was more of a good play by Joseph than it was a poor play by Love. Had the OL kept their blocks, they had a deep-crossing route wide open (Jayden Reed) for a 30+-yard gain, but tried to check down to Josh Jacobs due to the pressure and inability to escape. Aside from that, Love put the ball on the money throughout the game, and even if the Packers had just 2 or 3 drops, the results likely would’ve been much different. This bye week comes at a great time for Green Bay in hopes to clean up a lot of the pre-snap penalties and to get healthy, mainly Jordan Love’s groin/knee and Jaire Alexander’s hamstring.
Current Standings
As it stands now, the Packers are 3rd in their division, trailing behind Detroit and Minnesota – with Green Bay dropping each game against those rivals, at home nonetheless. The Packers will come out of the bye (hopefully) ready to take on the Bears at Soldier Field, with likely the #1 FOX crew calling the game. It begins the most important stretch of games for the Packers on the season. Currently holding the final playoff spot in the NFC (7th) with an opportunity to still catch Detroit should some things fall their way, Green Bay can only worry about improving upon themselves and stringing together consistent football for the remainder of the season.
Moving Forward
Mentioned above, the Packers have 8 remaining games, four of which will come against division opponents. Should Green Bay strive to win their division, let alone contend for the highly-coveted #1 seed in the NFC, they’ll likely have to finish the season 7-1 (very realistic) against similarly hungry teams remaining on their schedule. All of these are very winnable games, but the Bears will give their best shot (or at least their fans will), San Francisco is likely getting Christian McCaffery back, the Dolphins are now healthy and rolling, Seattle is vying to win their division, and the Vikings still have resemblance of a horseshoe stuck up their ass. It’ll be tough, but Green Bay is likely to be favored in all but 1 of their remaining games.
Should Green Bay finish 7-1, that would put them at 13-4, and if one of those wins comes against the Lions, or if the lone loss comes against Miami, that actually puts them in great shape to gain the #1 seed, however, that would mean Detroit has to drop 3-4 more games on their schedule, again, a big ask.
Trade Deadline
Newly acquired DE/EDGE, Preston Smith, practices for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The NFL trade deadline has come and gone, and while many fans wanted Green Bay to make a move, a major one, they chose not to. The Packers decided to move on from DE/Edge Rusher Preston Smith, who wanted to be traded as he wasn’t a fan of the new defense. Green Bay moving on from Smith frees up Lukas Van Ness, Kingsley Enagbare, and Arron Mosby to garner more snaps, and hopefully that generates a more consistent pass rush. We’ll see.
Again, there’s a lot to clean up, but even if Green Bay limits the drops and pre-snap penalties, they’re a favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy come February.
Keep in mind, this team is still the youngest in the league, and with that, you get mistakes…the good news, as the youngest team the liklihood
Keep in mind, this team is still the youngest in the league, and with that, you get mistakes…the good news, as the youngest team the likelihood of improving is higher than any other team. Especially given the amount of talent dispersed on this roster, that should be something to keep in the back of your mind as you watch them the remainder of the season.
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