Dallas Dismantle

Jordan Love and Aaron Jones each took part in obliterating the Dallas defense, each accounting for 3 TDs.

Fast Start

The Packers won the toss and decided to take the ball. To say “that paid off” would be an understatement. While the score was a blowout, many of the plays were extremely close, and kudos to Jordan Love for making just a ton of throws, especially under duress.

The Packers possessions looked like this:

  • Touchdown- 12 plays, 75 yards, 7:52
  • Punt- 6 plays, 28 yards, 2:29
  • Touchdown- 3 plays, 19 yards, 1:28
  • Touchdown- 10 plays, 93 yards, 5:44
  • Touchdown- 5 plays, 75 yards, 2:45
  • Touchdown- 3 plays, 75 yards, 1:36
  • Touchdown- 8 plays, 40 yards, 4:37
  • Punt- 3 plays, 1 yard, 1:05
  • Punt- 3 plays, 3 yards, 1:03
  • End of Game- 1 play, -1 yard, 0:16

After the Packers’ fourth possession (the 10-play, 93 yard TD drive), Darnell Savage had the pick-6 to essentially ice the game…that is until Joe Barry decided to take over.

Credit to Matt LaFleur, not only for game-planning/designing a brilliant scheme, but for sticking with the run throughout the game, even though it wasn’t working. Yes, Aaron Jones had a great game, but the overall rushing attack wasn’t productive (15 rushes for 32 yards, a 2.1 yards/carry avg.). However, it did wear down the defense, and with Love being ON with his throws off play action, the Dallas defense was extra-delayed in attacking the run, even up big in the 2nd half.

Points Off Turnovers

Unlike Aaron Rodgers-led Packer postseason teams, this Green Bay squad scored 14 points off both Dallas turnovers, and they won by 16…imagine that. While LaFleur once said “All gas, no brakes,” he may have pulled his starters a bit early considering the Cowboys had the ball with a chance to pull within 8 points (one score) with just over a minute left – the Packers obviously controlled it throughout, and much to the thanks of Jaire Alexander’s INT. That, not only, kept the momentum on Green Bay’s side, but catapulted them into firm command of the entire game. Turnovers are huge as they guarantee keeping points off the board, but scoring off of them is hallmark of a great team.

Now to the likely Demise of this Packers team…

Dallas had little issue moving the ball. The Cowboys racked up 510 yards on 89 plays. Yes, that’s a ton of plays, 35 (65%) more than the Packers ran. Dallas only punted twice, and the 2 interceptions came on man coverage…the 2nd half, once up 48-16, the Packers played a soft zone, and Dallas obliterated it. From that point, Dallas’ drives resulted in:

  • TOUCHDOWN- 11 plays, 75 yards, 4:29
  • TOUCHDOWN- 4 plays, 91 yards, 1:24
  • DOWNS- 11 plays, 65 yards, 2:06

I’ve written, last year, about how Joe Barry’s defense has typically played better later in the year since joining Green Bay, he relies too much on his players to make plays in zone coverage rather than just play tight man coverage and force the opposing QB to make good, clean accurate throws on time and on target. In zone, you can get checked down to death. Luckily, Dak Prescott was off (he’s also a choke artist, Cowboy fans won’t even argue this) and missed some easy throws coupled with a drop or two by his targets…this is also why wins are a QB stat, because Jordan Love completely pounded the Dallas defense and put the other QB in a spot where he eventually had to play perfect.

Rodeo Ride

It’s been a wild ride for Packer Nation. Regardless of your thoughts on this team heading into the season, the Packers have either met or already exceeded preseason expectations…and now they’re playing with House Money.

How’d They Get Here?

Green Bay- talk about a roller-coaster of a season. There were initial glimpses of talent and capabilities with this young team right out of the gate. After starting the season 2-1, and were a play away from beginning 3-0, the Packers found themselves at 2-5 with almost no one thinking Jordan Love was even good, let alone the future of the franchise. However, after surviving Joe Barry’s amazing defensive output vs. easy wins in the Giants and Buccaneers, the Packers are now the 7th seed and seek to become the first 7th seed to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, or just win a game in the postseason.

Dallas- after opening the season in a resounding way, routing the Giants 40-0, the Cowboys kept scoring. They dropped a game vs. the then worst team in the NFL, Arizona Cardinals, and were blasted by the San Francisco 49ers – Jerry’s team kept putting up points, especially at home. Dallas went 8-0 with an average margin of victory of 21.5 points/game. Yes, that includes their final home game vs. Detroit where they won 20-19, on a correctly called illegal touching on the Lions’ 2-point try to win the game.

Significance of this Game…

Green Bay- we’ve already covered this, but the Packers have nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Experience is first and foremost, but if Green Bay is somehow able to win this game, the kids will then have had experience of winning a road playoff game – which would be incredible.

Dallas- No team has more pressure (self-inflicted or otherwise) than the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl. The fan base is huge and obnoxious, not the worst, but it’s up there. It’s been well-documented that Dallas hasn’t seen a conference Title game since 1995…so we’re on year 28. To put that in perspective for fans my age, the Packers’ Super Bowl XXXI win in the 1996 season was 29 years after their last one in 1967…yeah, we’re old.

Needless to say, this is a must-win for the Cowboys, especially head coach Mike McCarthy. If Green Bay comes down to Dallas and wins, again, that could potentially end his tenure in Arlington, TX.

Green Bay- Jordan Love has an incredible opportunity to really put his name on the map. He’s already sure to get paid this offseason (current deal runs through next year, but no one has a lame duck Head Coach or starting QB).

Matchup

As you can see, Dallas is better in every category, and have played that way throughout the season. They obliterated bad teams, however they were exposed by the 49ers (42-10) and Bills (31-10). While many people go into deep-dive analytics with DVOA, etc., the Cowboys are just flat out good. However, they only went 3-4 vs. playoff teams this season, while Green Bay finished 3-3. While Dallas has the edge in overall talent and experience, they do come up short in big games, often.

Players to Watch

Aaron Jones owns the Cowboys much in the same as Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears. Jones has been incredible vs. Dallas in his career, and even had a 4 TD game down there. Tom Silverstein has a solid article highlighting just that, along with a few other areas Green Bay can attack Dallas and pull out the upset.

  • Micah Parsons, LB #11
  • Tony Pollard, HB #20
  • Jake Ferguson, TE #87
  • Ceedee Lamb, WR #88

Prediction

Packers 27 (+7)
Cowboys 31

Season: 4-13 (not my best showing, but picking against us has worked so far…)
Overall: 91-65